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Population Projections (population + projection)
Terms modified by Population Projections Selected AbstractsConditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate ChangeINTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2004Brian C. O'Neill Summary Future changes in population size, composition, and spatial distribution are key factors in the analysis of climate change, and their future evolution is highly uncertain. In climate change analyses, population uncertainty has traditionally been accounted for by using alternative scenarios spanning a range of outcomes. This paper illustrates how conditional probabilistic projections offer a means of combining probabilistic approaches with the scenario-based approach typically employed in the development of greenhouse gas emissions projections. The illustration combines a set of emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with existing probabilistic population projections from IIASA. Results demonstrate that conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective. They may also serve as a step toward more comprehensive quantification of uncertainty in emissions projections. Résumé Les changements futurs dans la taille, la composition et la distribution spatiale de la population sont des facteurs cels dans l'analyse du changement climatique, et leur évolution future est très incertaine. Dans les analyses du changement climatique, on tient traditionnellement compte de l'incertitude sur la population en utilisant des sénarios alternatifs couvrant un éventail de résultats. Cet article illustre comment des projections à probabilité conditionnelle permettent de combiner les approches probabilistes avec l'approche basée sur des scénarios, typiquement employée dans les travaux de projections d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre. La présentation combine un ensemble de scénarios d'émissions développé par le Panel Intergouvernemental sur le changement climatique (IPCC) avec des projections de population probabilistes existantes de l'IIASA. Les résultats démontrent que les projections à probabilité conditionnelle peuvent expliquer plus complètement l'incertitude sur les émissions dans le cadre de scénarios conditionnels des modèles de développement futurs, qu'elles peuvent permettre de juger de la cohérence de scénarios individuels avec un scénario donné, et de fournir une idée des vraisemblances relatives dans les scénarios, au moins d'un point de vue démographique. Ils peuvent aussi servir d'étape vers une quantification plus précise de l'incertitude dans les projections d'émissions. [source] Demographic Prospects 2000,2050 According to the 2000 Revision of the United Nations Population ProjectionsPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 2 2001Article first published online: 27 JAN 200 The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat biennially issues revised versions of detailed population estimates and projections for over 200 countries, territories, and regional aggregates of the world. Highlights of the latest set, World Population Prospects: The 2000 Revision, were released 28 February 2001 (Draft ESA/P/WP.165). This 76-page document is available at «http://www.un.org/esa/population/wpp2000.htm». The full results of the projections will be published in a series of three volumes, currently under preparation. Key findings of the projections, as presented in the Executive Summary of the document, are reproduced below. [source] HIP FRACTURE RATES IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA: INTO THE NEXT CENTURYANZ JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Issue 2 2000L. S. Chipchase Background: Fractures of the femoral neck already represent a major public health problem in Australia. This situation is set to worsen as the population ages. The present study estimates the number of patients over 50 years of age with femoral neck fractures that is expected to impact on the South Australian healthcare service into the next century. Methods: Population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 1996 census were combined with age- and gender-specific incidence rates for fractures of the femoral neck for persons over the age of 50 in South Australia. Projections for the expected number of hip fractures in this State were then calculated. Results: Assuming there are no changes in the age- and gender-specific incidence of fracture rates, the number of fractures in South Australia is estimated to increase by approximately 66% by the year 2021 and 190% by 2051. Conclusion: Based on the population projections and the assumption that conditions contributing to hip fractures remain constant, the number of fractured neck of femurs will increase in far greater proportion than the overall population in the next century. The results of the present study indicate the serious implications for the South Australian healthcare system if there is no reduction in incidence rates. [source] Assessing the effectiveness of conservation management decisions: likely effects of new protection measures for Hector's dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori)AQUATIC CONSERVATION: MARINE AND FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS, Issue 3 2010Elisabeth Slooten Abstract 1.Fisheries bycatch affects many species of marine mammals, seabirds, turtles and other marine animals. 2.New Zealand's endemic Hector's dolphins overlap with gillnet and trawl fisheries throughout their geographic range. The species is listed as Endangered by the IUCN. In addition, the North Island subspecies has been listed as Critically Endangered. 3.Estimates of catch rates in commercial gillnets from an observer programme (there are no quantitative estimates of bycatch by amateur gillnetters or in trawl fisheries) were used in a simple population viability analysis to predict the impact of this fishery under three scenarios: Option (A) status-quo management, (B) new regulations announced by the Minister of Fisheries in 2008 and (C) total protection. 4.Uncertainty in estimates of population size and growth rate, number of dolphins caught and other model inputs are explicitly included in the analysis. Sensitivity analyses are carried out to examine the effect of variation in catch rate and the extent to which fishing effort is removed from protected areas but displaced to unprotected areas. 5.These methods are applicable to many other situations in which animals are removed from populations, whether deliberately (e.g. fishing) or not (e.g. bycatch). 6.The current Hector's dolphin population is clearly depleted, at an estimated 27% of the 1970 population. Population projections to 2050 under Options A and B predict that the total population is likely to continue declining. In the case of Option B this is driven mainly by continuing bycatch due to the much weaker protection measures on the South Island west coast. 7.Without fishing mortality (Option C) all populations are projected to increase, with the total population approximately doubling by 2050 and reaching half of its 1970 population size in just under 40 years. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Impact of storm-burning on Melaleuca viridiflora invasion of grasslands and grassy woodlands on Cape York Peninsula, AustraliaAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2009GABRIEL CROWLEY Abstract This paper examines invasion of grasslands on Cape York Peninsula, Australia, by Melaleuca viridiflora and other woody species, and the role of storm-burning (lighting fires after the first wet season rains) in their maintenance. Trends in disturbance features, fuel characteristics, ground layer composition, and woody plants dynamics under combinations of withholding fire and storm-burning over a 3-year period were measured on 19 plots in three landscape settings. Population dynamics of M. viridiflora are described in detail and 20-year population projections based on transition matrices under different fire regimes generated. Numerous M. viridiflora suckers occurred within the grass layer, increasing each year regardless of fire regime, and were rapidly recruited to the canopy in the absence of fire. Storm-burning had little impact on fuel, ground layer or woody plant composition, but maintained open vegetation structure by substantially reducing recruitment of M. viridiflora suckers to the sapling layer, and by reducing the above-grass-layer abundance of several other invasive woody species. Population projections indicated that withholding fire for 20 years could cause a sevenfold increase of M. viridiflora density on Ti-tree flats, and that annual to triennial storm-burning should be effective at maintaining a stable open vegetation structure. These findings argue against vegetation thickening being an inevitable consequence of climate change. We conclude that a fire regime that includes regular storm-burning can be effective for maintaining grasslands and grassy woodlands being invaded by M. viridiflora. [source] The projected health care burden of Type 2 diabetes in the UK from 2000 to 2060DIABETIC MEDICINE, Issue 2002A. Bagust Abstract Aims/hypothesis To predict the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the UK, the trends in the levels of diabetes-related complications, and the associated health care costs for the period 2000,60. Methods An established epidemiological and economic model of the long-term complications and health care costs of Type 2 diabetes was applied to UK population projections from 2000 to 2060. The model was used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, the caseloads and population burden for diabetes-related complications, and annual NHS health care costs for Type 2 diabetes over this time period. Results The total UK population will not increase by more than 3% at any time in the next 60 years. However, the population over 30 will increase by a maximum of 11% by 2030. Due to population ageing, in 2036 there will be approximately 20% more cases of Type 2 diabetes than in 2000. Cases of diabetes-related complications will increase rapidly to peak 20,30% above present levels between 2035 and 2045, before showing a modest decline. The cost of health care for patients with Type 2 diabetes rises by up to 25% during this period, but because of reductions in the economically active age groups, the relative economic burden of the disease can be expected to increase by 40,50%. Conclusion/interpretation In the next 30 years Type 2 diabetes will present a serious clinical and financial challenge to the UK NHS. [source] Funding a PAYG pension system: the case of ItalyFISCAL STUDIES, Issue 4 2001Lorenzo Forni Abstract Italy is characterised by a mature pay-as-you-go social security system and by particularly adverse population projections. Given these trends, the social security contribution rate is expected to increase above its current high level. This hinders the development of employer-provided pension funds and introduces a significant wedge between labour cost and earnings that discourages both labour demand and labour supply. Any proposal to reduce payroll taxes and to reform the system in the direction of partial funding has to cope with the state of Italian public finances. Italy has to comply with the Stability and Growth Pact that imposes constraints on budget deficit and debt trends. Using micro data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth and official population projections, we estimate future employment trends under different demographic and macroeconomic scenarios and compute the cost of the transition. We show that it would be substantially reduced if positive effects on employment were induced by the payroll tax reduction. [source] Modelling the burden of stroke in Finland until 2030INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF STROKE, Issue 5 2009J. Sivenius Background It is well known that increasing age is the strongest risk factor of stroke. Therefore, it has been a common belief in many countries including Finland that the numbers of stroke patients will increase considerably during the next two decades because the population is rapidly ageing. Methods The FINMONICA and FINSTROKE registers operated in Finland in the Kuopio area and city of Turku from 1983 to 1997. The results showed that the incidence, mortality and case fatality of stroke declined significantly during that period. Importantly, it was established that the trends in incidence and mortality were also declining among the elderly (>74 years). We used these results to create a model for the entire country. The model was based on the trends present in these registers from Turku and Kuopio area and age-specific population projections up to the year 2030 that were obtained from Statistics Finland. Results In the year 2000, the number of new first stroke cases was estimated to be 11 500. If the declining trend were to level off totally after the year 2000, the number of new strokes would be 20 100 in the year 2030 due to the ageing of the population. It would be 12 100 if the trend continued as favourable as during the years 1983,1997. Conclusions Ageing of the population will not inevitably increase the burden of stroke in Finland if the present declining trends are maintained, but the annual number of cases will almost double if the incidence remains at the level of the year 2000. [source] Japan's never,ending social security reformsINTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SECURITY REVIEW, Issue 4 2002Noriyuki Takayama This paper examines implications of the 2002 population projections for future trends in pension and healthcare costs in Japan. Current redistributive pension and healthcare programmes have resulted in considerably higher per capita income for the aged than the non,aged population. Substantive reforms are needed to lessen the extent of such redistribution, but political considerations have meant that only incremental reforms have been feasible. A start, however, has been made on introducing private initiatives in pensions; and shifting from the command and control model operated by the central government to a contracting model for healthcare. [source] Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate ChangeINTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2004Brian C. O'Neill Summary Future changes in population size, composition, and spatial distribution are key factors in the analysis of climate change, and their future evolution is highly uncertain. In climate change analyses, population uncertainty has traditionally been accounted for by using alternative scenarios spanning a range of outcomes. This paper illustrates how conditional probabilistic projections offer a means of combining probabilistic approaches with the scenario-based approach typically employed in the development of greenhouse gas emissions projections. The illustration combines a set of emissions scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with existing probabilistic population projections from IIASA. Results demonstrate that conditional probabilistic projections have the potential to account more fully for uncertainty in emissions within conditional storylines about future development patterns, to provide a context for judging the consistency of individual scenarios with a given storyline, and to provide insight into relative likelihoods across storylines, at least from a demographic perspective. They may also serve as a step toward more comprehensive quantification of uncertainty in emissions projections. Résumé Les changements futurs dans la taille, la composition et la distribution spatiale de la population sont des facteurs cels dans l'analyse du changement climatique, et leur évolution future est très incertaine. Dans les analyses du changement climatique, on tient traditionnellement compte de l'incertitude sur la population en utilisant des sénarios alternatifs couvrant un éventail de résultats. Cet article illustre comment des projections à probabilité conditionnelle permettent de combiner les approches probabilistes avec l'approche basée sur des scénarios, typiquement employée dans les travaux de projections d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre. La présentation combine un ensemble de scénarios d'émissions développé par le Panel Intergouvernemental sur le changement climatique (IPCC) avec des projections de population probabilistes existantes de l'IIASA. Les résultats démontrent que les projections à probabilité conditionnelle peuvent expliquer plus complètement l'incertitude sur les émissions dans le cadre de scénarios conditionnels des modèles de développement futurs, qu'elles peuvent permettre de juger de la cohérence de scénarios individuels avec un scénario donné, et de fournir une idée des vraisemblances relatives dans les scénarios, au moins d'un point de vue démographique. Ils peuvent aussi servir d'étape vers une quantification plus précise de l'incertitude dans les projections d'émissions. [source] The joint effects of larval density and 14C-cypermethrin on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus ripariusJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2003Helen L. Hooper Summary 1Chemical effects on organisms are typically assessed using individual-level endpoints or sometimes population growth rate (PGR), but such measurements are generally made at low population densities. In contrast most natural populations are subject to density dependence and fluctuate around the environmental carrying capacity as a result of individual competition for resources. As ecotoxicology aims to make reliable population projections of chemical impacts in the field, an understanding of how high-density or resource-limited populations respond to environmental chemicals is essential. 2Our objective was to determine the joint effects of population density and chemical stress on the life history and PGR of an important ecotoxicological indicator species, Chironomus riparius, under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations were fed the same ration but initiated at different densities and exposed to a solvent control and three concentrations of 14C-cypermethrin in a sediment,water test system for 67 days at 20 ± 1 °C. 3Density had a negative effect on all the measured life-history traits, and PGR declined with increasing density in the controls. Exposure to 14C-cypermethrin had a direct negative effect on juvenile survival, presumably within the first 24 h because the chemical rapidly dissipated from the water column. Reductions in the initial larval densities resulted in an increase in the available resources for the survivors. Subsequently, exposed populations emerged sooner and started producing offspring earlier than the controls. 14C-cypermethrin had no effect on estimated fecundity and adult body weight but interacted with density to reduce the time to first emergence and first reproduction. As a result, PGR increased with cypermethrin concentration when populations were initiated at high densities. 4Synthesis and applications. The results showed that the effects of 14C-cypermethrin were buffered at high density, so that the joint effects of density and chemical stress on PGR were less than additive. Low levels of chemical stressors may increase carrying capacity by reducing juvenile competition for resources. More and perhaps fitter adults may be produced, similar to the effects of predators and culling; however, toxicant exposure may result in survivors that are less tolerant to changing conditions. If less than additive effects are typical in the field, standard regulatory tests carried out at low density may overestimate the effects of environmental chemicals. Further studies over a wide range of chemical stressors and organisms with contrasting life histories are needed to make general recommendations. [source] Population Trends in BMD Testing, Treatment, and Hip and Wrist Fracture Rates: Are the Hip Fracture Projections Wrong?JOURNAL OF BONE AND MINERAL RESEARCH, Issue 6 2005Susan B Jaglal PhD Abstract A worldwide epidemic of hip fractures has been predicted. Time trends in BMD testing, bone-sparing medications and hip and wrist fractures in the province of Ontario, Canada, were examined. From 1996 to 2001, BMD testing and use of bone-sparing medications increased each year, whereas despite the aging of the population, wrist and hip fracture rates decreased. Introduction: If patients with osteoporosis are being diagnosed and effective treatments used with increasing frequency in the population, rates of hip and wrist fractures will remain stable or possibly decrease. We report here time trends in BMD testing, prescriptions for bone-sparing medications, hip and wrist fracture rates, and population projections of fracture rates to 2005 in the province of Ontario, Canada. Materials and Methods: Ontario residents have universal access to Medicare. To examine time trends in BMD testing, all physician claims for DXA from 1992 to 2001 were selected from the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) database. Trends in prescribing were examined from 1996 to 2003 using data from the Ontario Drug Benefit plan, which provides coverage to persons ,65 years of age. Actual numbers of hip and wrist fractures were determined for 1992-2000 and population projections for 2001-2005 using time-series analysis. Wrist fractures were identified in the OHIP database and hip fractures through hospital discharge abstracts. Results: From 1992 to 2001, the number of BMD tests increased 10-fold. There has been a steady increase in the number of persons filling prescriptions for antiresorptives (12,298 in 1996 to 225,580 in 2003) and the majority were for etidronate. For women, the rate of decline for wrist fractures is greater than that for hip fractures. The rate of hip fracture was fairly constant around 41 per 10,000 women ,50 years between 1992 and 1996. In 1997, the hip fracture rate began to decrease, and the population projections suggest that this downward trend will continue to a rate of 33.1 per 10,000 in 2005. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that fracture rates may be on the decline, despite the aging of the population, because of increased patterns of diagnosis and treatment for osteoporosis. [source] Stages of the Demographic Transition from a Child's Perspective: Family Size, Cohort Size, and Children's ResourcesPOPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW, Issue 2 2008David Lam This article provides a new characterization of stages of the demographic transition from the perspective of children competing for resources within families and cohorts. In Stage 1 falling mortality increases the size of both families and birth cohorts. In Stage 2 falling fertility overtakes falling mortality to reduce family size, but population momentum causes continued growth in cohort size. In Stage 3 falling fertility overtakes population momentum to produce declining cohort size. We apply our framework to census microdata for eight countries and to United Nations population projections for a larger set of countries. The results suggest that most countries spend two to three decades in Stage 2, with declining family size offset by increasing cohort size. From the perspective of children aged 9,11, many countries enter Stage 3 between 2000 and 2010. Other countries, especially in Africa, will continue to experience increasing cohort size for several more decades. [source] HIP FRACTURE RATES IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA: INTO THE NEXT CENTURYANZ JOURNAL OF SURGERY, Issue 2 2000L. S. Chipchase Background: Fractures of the femoral neck already represent a major public health problem in Australia. This situation is set to worsen as the population ages. The present study estimates the number of patients over 50 years of age with femoral neck fractures that is expected to impact on the South Australian healthcare service into the next century. Methods: Population projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics 1996 census were combined with age- and gender-specific incidence rates for fractures of the femoral neck for persons over the age of 50 in South Australia. Projections for the expected number of hip fractures in this State were then calculated. Results: Assuming there are no changes in the age- and gender-specific incidence of fracture rates, the number of fractures in South Australia is estimated to increase by approximately 66% by the year 2021 and 190% by 2051. Conclusion: Based on the population projections and the assumption that conditions contributing to hip fractures remain constant, the number of fractured neck of femurs will increase in far greater proportion than the overall population in the next century. The results of the present study indicate the serious implications for the South Australian healthcare system if there is no reduction in incidence rates. [source] Projections of US prevalence of arthritis and associated activity limitationsARTHRITIS & RHEUMATISM, Issue 1 2006Jennifer M. Hootman Objective To update the projected prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis and arthritis-attributable activity limitations among US adults ages 18 years and older from 2005 through 2030. Methods Baseline age- and sex-specific prevalence rates of arthritis and activity limitation, using the latest surveillance case definitions, were estimated from the 2003 National Health Interview Survey, which is an annual, cross-sectional, population-based health interview survey of ,31,000 adults. These estimates were used to calculate projected arthritis prevalence and activity limitations for 2005,2030 using future population projections obtained from the US Census Bureau. Results The prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis is projected to increase from 47.8 million in 2005 to nearly 67 million by 2030 (25% of the adult population). By 2030, 25 million (9.3% of the adult population) are projected to report arthritis-attributable activity limitations. In 2030, >50% of arthritis cases will be among adults older than age 65 years. However, working-age adults (45,64 years) will account for almost one-third of cases. Conclusion By 2030, the number of US adults with arthritis and its associated activity limitation is expected to increase substantially, resulting in a large impact on individuals, the health care system, and society in general. The growing epidemic of obesity may also significantly contribute to the future burden of arthritis. Improving access and availability of current clinical and public health interventions aimed at improving quality of life among persons with arthritis through lifestyle changes and disease self-management may help lessen the long-term impact. [source] Impact of storm-burning on Melaleuca viridiflora invasion of grasslands and grassy woodlands on Cape York Peninsula, AustraliaAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2009GABRIEL CROWLEY Abstract This paper examines invasion of grasslands on Cape York Peninsula, Australia, by Melaleuca viridiflora and other woody species, and the role of storm-burning (lighting fires after the first wet season rains) in their maintenance. Trends in disturbance features, fuel characteristics, ground layer composition, and woody plants dynamics under combinations of withholding fire and storm-burning over a 3-year period were measured on 19 plots in three landscape settings. Population dynamics of M. viridiflora are described in detail and 20-year population projections based on transition matrices under different fire regimes generated. Numerous M. viridiflora suckers occurred within the grass layer, increasing each year regardless of fire regime, and were rapidly recruited to the canopy in the absence of fire. Storm-burning had little impact on fuel, ground layer or woody plant composition, but maintained open vegetation structure by substantially reducing recruitment of M. viridiflora suckers to the sapling layer, and by reducing the above-grass-layer abundance of several other invasive woody species. Population projections indicated that withholding fire for 20 years could cause a sevenfold increase of M. viridiflora density on Ti-tree flats, and that annual to triennial storm-burning should be effective at maintaining a stable open vegetation structure. These findings argue against vegetation thickening being an inevitable consequence of climate change. We conclude that a fire regime that includes regular storm-burning can be effective for maintaining grasslands and grassy woodlands being invaded by M. viridiflora. [source] ACCOUNTING FOR POPULATION AGEING IN TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING BY SURVEY REWEIGHTING,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 1 2006LIXIN CAI This paper investigates the use of sample reweighting, in a behavioural tax microsimulation model, to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. First, a calibration approach to sample reweighting is described, producing new weights that achieve specified population totals for selected variables. Second, the performance of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) weights provided with the 2000,2001 Survey of Income and Housing Cost (SIHC) was examined and it was found that reweighting does not improve the simulation outcomes for the 2001 situation, so the original ABS weights were retained for 2001. Third, the implications of changes in the age distribution of the population were examined, based on population projections to 2050. A ,pure' change in the age distribution was examined by keeping the aggregate population size fixed and changing only the relative frequencies in different age-gender groups. Finally, the effects of a policy change to benefit taper rates in Australia were compared for 2001 and 2050 population weights. It is suggested that this type of exercise provides an insight into the implications for government income tax revenue and social security expenditure of changes in the population, indicating likely pressures for policy changes. [source] The future magnitude of urological symptoms in the USA: projections using the Boston Area Community Health surveyBJU INTERNATIONAL, Issue 4 2007Heather J. Litman OBJECTIVE To use the population-based data from the Boston Area Community Health (BACH) Survey to estimate the likely magnitude (prevalence) of urological symptoms in the USA population in 2025, as health-services researchers use projections of the likely magnitude of disease to inform decisions on the future allocation of health resources. METHODS Age and gender-specific prevalence rates from BACH were combined with USA population projections to estimate the likely magnitude of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and symptoms suggestive of urine leakage, painful bladder syndrome (PBlS) and prostatitis (men only). RESULTS In total and accounting for overlapping symptoms, 52 million adults in the USA will have symptoms of LUTS, urine leakage, PBlS or prostatitis in 2025. These urological symptoms have a large impact on physical and mental aspects of quality of life, that is comparable to other chronic conditions. CONCLUSIONS The future magnitude of symptoms indicative of these four urological conditions might reach the current level of cardiovascular disease in the USA, which is considered ,a modern epidemic.' Our projections have important implications for medical education, training of healthcare providers, health-services research, and policy and patient education. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||