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Population Performance (population + performance)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Life Sciences	83%

Selected Abstracts

Quantifying Plant Population Persistence in Human-Dominated Landscapes

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2008
DAWN M. LAWSON
Base de Datos de la Diversidad Natural de California; conservación de plantas; crecimiento de la población; especies en peligro; paisajes urbanos Abstract:,We assessed population performance of rare plants across a gradient from rural to urban landscapes and evaluated 2 hypotheses central to strategic conservation planning: (1) population performance declines with increasing human dominance and (2) small populations perform poorly relative to larger ones. Assessing these hypotheses is critical to strategic conservation planning. The current conservation paradigm adheres to the well-established ecology theory that small isolated populations, particularly those in human-dominated landscapes, are the least likely to succeed over the long term. Consequently, conservation planning has strongly favored large, remote targets for protection. This shift in conservation toward ecosystem-based programs and protection of populations within large, remote systems has been at the expense of protection of the rarest of the rare species, the dominant paradigm for conservation driven by the endangered species act. Yet, avoiding conservation of small populations appears to be based more on theoretical understanding and expert opinion than empiricism. We used Natural Heritage data from California in an assessment of population performance of rare plants across a landscape with an urban-rural gradient. Population performance did not decrease in urban settings or for populations that were initially small. Our results are consistent with a pattern of few species extinctions within these landscapes over the past several decades. We conclude that these populations within compromised landscapes can contribute to overall biodiversity conservation. We further argue that conservation planning for biodiversity preservation should allocate relatively more resources to protecting urban-associated plant taxa because they may provide conservation benefit beyond simply protecting isolated populations; they may be useful in building social interest in conservation. Resumen:,Evaluamos el funcionamiento de la población de plantas raras a lo largo de un gradiente de paisajes rurales a urbanos y evaluamos 2 hipótesis centrales para la planificación estratégica de la conservación: (1) declinaciones en el funcionamiento poblacional con el incremento de la dominancia humana y (2) las poblaciones pequeñas funcionan pobremente en relación con las grandes. La evaluación de estas hipótesis es crítica para la planificación estratégica de la conservación. El paradigma actual de la conservación se adhiere a la teoría ecológica bien establecida que propone que las poblaciones pequeñas aisladas, particularmente en paisajes dominados por humanos, tienen menor probabilidad de sobrevivir a largo plazo. Consecuentemente, la planificación de la conservación ha favorecido objetivos grandes y remotos. Este cambio hacia programas de conservación basados en ecosistemas y la protección de poblaciones en sistemas extensos y remotos ha sido a costa de la protección de las especies más raras entre las raras, el paradigma dominante en la conservación conducida por el acta de especies en peligro. No obstante, la evasión de la conservación de poblaciones pequeñas parece estar basada más en entendimiento teórico y en la opinión de expertos que en el empirismo. Utilizamos datos del Patrimonio Natural de California en una evaluación del funcionamiento de plantas raras en un paisaje con un gradiente urbano a rural. El funcionamiento de la población no decreció en sitios urbanos o en poblaciones que eran pequeñas inicialmente. Nuestros resultados son consistentes con un patrón de extinción de especies en estos paisajes en las últimas décadas. Concluimos que estas poblaciones en paisajes comprometidos pueden contribuir a la conservación de la biodiversidad en general. También argumentamos que la planificación de la conservación para la preservación de la biodiversidad debería asignar más recursos para la protección de taxa de plantas asociadas a ambientes urbanos porque pueden proporcionar beneficios de conservación más allá de simplemente proteger poblaciones aisladas; pueden ser útiles para construir el interés social por la conservación. [source]

Using Population Count Data to Assess the Effects of Changing River Flow on an Endangered Riparian Plant

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2006
DIANE M. THOMSON
análisis de viabilidad poblacional; gestión ribereña; método de difusión; presas; riesgo de extinción Abstract:,Methods for using simple population count data to project extinction risk have been the focus of much recent theoretical work, but few researchers have used these approaches to address management questions. We analyzed 15 years of census data on the federally endangered endemic riparian plant Pityopsis ruthii (Small) with the diffusion approximation (DA). Our goals were to evaluate relative extinction risk among populations in two different watersheds (in Tennessee, U.S.A.) and potential effects of variation in managed river flow on population dynamics. Populations in both watersheds had high projected risks of extinction within 50 years, but the causes of this risk differed. Populations of P. ruthii on the Hiwassee River had higher initial population sizes but significantly lower average growth rates than those on the Ocoee River. The only populations with low predicted short-term extinction risk were on the Ocoee. Growth rates for populations on both rivers were significantly reduced during periods of lower river flow. We found only marginal evidence of a quadratic relationship between population performance and flow. These patterns are consistent with the idea that low flows affect P. ruthii due to growth of competing vegetation, but the degree to which very high flows may reduce population growth is still unclear. Simulations indicated that populations were most sensitive to growth rates in low-flow years, but small changes in the frequency of these periods did not strongly increase risk for most populations. Consistent with results of other studies, DA estimates of extinction risk had wide confidence limits. Still, our results yielded several valuable insights, including the need for greater monitoring of populations on the Hiwassee and the importance of low-flow years to population growth. Our work illustrates the potential value of simple methods for analyzing count data despite the challenges posed by uncertainty in estimates of extinction risk. Resumen:,Los métodos que utilizan datos de conteos simples de la población para proyectar el riesgo de extinción han sido el foco reciente de mucho trabajo teórico, pero pocos investigadores han utilizado estos métodos para responder preguntas de gestión. Analizamos 15 años de datos de censos de la planta ribereña, endémica y federalmente en peligro Pityopsis ruthii (Small) mediante el método de difusión. Nuestras metas fueron evaluar el riesgo de extinción de poblaciones en dos cuencas hidrológicas distintas y con dos efectos potenciales de la variación del flujo de agua sobre la dinámica de la población. Las poblaciones en ambas cuencas tenían alto riesgo de extinción proyectado a 50 años, pero las causas de este riesgo difirieron. Las poblaciones de P. ruthii en el Río Hiwassee tuvieron poblaciones iniciales más grandes, pero tasas de crecimiento significativamente menores, que las poblaciones en el Río Ocoee. Las únicas poblaciones con bajo riesgo de extinción pronosticado estaban en el Ocoee. Las tasas de crecimiento de las poblaciones en ambos ríos se redujeron significativamente durante períodos de bajo flujo en el río. Sólo encontramos evidencia marginal de la relación cuadrática entre el funcionamiento de la población y el flujo. Estos patrones son consistentes con la idea de que los bajos flujos afectan a P. ruthii debido al crecimiento de vegetación competitiva, pero aun no es claro el grado en que flujos muy grandes pueden reducir el crecimiento poblacional. Las simulaciones indicaron que las poblaciones son más sensibles a las tasas de crecimiento en años con bajo flujo en los ríos, pero pequeños cambios en la frecuencia de esos períodos no aumentaron el riesgo en la mayoría de las poblaciones. Consistentemente con los resultados de otros estudios, las estimaciones del riesgo de extinción mediante el método de difusión tienen amplios límites de confianza. Aun así, nuestros resultados aportaron varios conocimientos valiosos, incluyendo la necesidad de mayor monitoreo de las poblaciones en el Hiwassee y la importancia para el crecimiento poblacional de los años con bajo flujo. Nuestro trabajo ilustra el valor potencial de métodos sencillos de análisis de datos de conteo a pesar de los retos impuestos por la incertidumbre en las estimaciones del riesgo de extinción. [source]

Range-wide patterns of greater sage-grouse persistence

DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 6 2008
Cameron L. Aldridge
ABSTRACT Aim, Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a shrub-steppe obligate species of western North America, currently occupies only half its historical range. Here we examine how broad-scale, long-term trends in landscape condition have affected range contraction. Location, Sagebrush biome of the western USA. Methods, Logistic regression was used to assess persistence and extirpation of greater sage-grouse range based on landscape conditions measured by human population (density and population change), vegetation (percentage of sagebrush habitat), roads (density of and distance to roads), agriculture (cropland, farmland and cattle density), climate (number of severe and extreme droughts) and range periphery. Model predictions were used to identify areas where future extirpations can be expected, while also explaining possible causes of past extirpations. Results, Greater sage-grouse persistence and extirpation were significantly related to sagebrush habitat, cultivated cropland, human population density in 1950, prevalence of severe droughts and historical range periphery. Extirpation of sage-grouse was most likely in areas having at least four persons per square kilometre in 1950, 25% cultivated cropland in 2002 or the presence of three or more severe droughts per decade. In contrast, persistence of sage-grouse was expected when at least 30 km from historical range edge and in habitats containing at least 25% sagebrush cover within 30 km. Extirpation was most often explained (35%) by the combined effects of peripherality (within 30 km of range edge) and lack of sagebrush cover (less than 25% within 30 km). Based on patterns of prior extirpation and model predictions, we predict that 29% of remaining range may be at risk. Main Conclusions, Spatial patterns in greater sage-grouse range contraction can be explained by widely available landscape variables that describe patterns of remaining sagebrush habitat and loss due to cultivation, climatic trends, human population growth and peripherality of populations. However, future range loss may relate less to historical mechanisms and more to recent changes in land use and habitat condition, including energy developments and invasions by non-native species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and West Nile virus. In conjunction with local measures of population performance, landscape-scale predictions of future range loss may be useful for prioritizing management and protection. Our results suggest that initial conservation efforts should focus on maintaining large expanses of sagebrush habitat, enhancing quality of existing habitats, and increasing habitat connectivity. [source]

Differences in the impacts of dams on the dynamics of salmon populations

ANIMAL CONSERVATION, Issue 4 2001
Phillip S. Levin
Modern concrete dams have devastated fish populations world-wide. However, dams vary greatly in how they are engineered and operated, and thus pose a range of threats to riverine fauna. Understanding the differences in the impacts of dams is critical for setting conservation priorities. We used a modified BACI (before-after-control-impact) sampling design as a means to quantify the effects of dams on spring/summer chinook salmon in two watersheds (Snake and Upper Columbia Rivers) of the Columbia River Basin, USA. The construction of four dams in the Columbia River Basin from 1966 to 1975 allowed us to test the hypothesis that the presence of these dams does not affect the abundance, survival and population growth of chinook salmon. In both the Snake and Upper Columbia Rivers, there was a significant decline from the period before dams were constructed (1959-65) to the period after dams were constructed (1980-90). In the Upper Columbia River, declines in productivity or population performance (measured as recruits per spawner or Ricker function residuals) were greater than in the control region. On the other hand, patterns of fish productivity in the Snake River were similar to those seen in the control region. The disparity between fates of Upper Columbia and Snake River populations points to the differences between regions in current efforts to reduce fish mortality associated with dams. Our analysis suggests that dams in the Upper Columbia River, but not Snake River, are a potential force preventing recovery of endangered salmon populations. [source]

Using data mining to predict K,12 students' performance on large-scale assessment items related to energy

JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN SCIENCE TEACHING, Issue 5 2008
Xiufeng Liu
This article reports a study on using data mining to predict K,12 students' competence levels on test items related to energy. Data sources are the 1995 Third International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), 1999 TIMSS-Repeat, 2003 Trend in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), and the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). Student population performances, that is, percentages correct, are the object of prediction. Two data mining algorithms, C4.5 and M5, are used to construct a decision tree and a linear function to predict students' performance levels. A combination of factors related to content, context, and cognitive demand of items and to students' grade levels are found to predict student population performances on test items. Cognitive demands have the most significant contribution to the prediction. The decision tree and linear function agree with each other on predictions. We end the article by discussing implications of findings for future science content standard development and energy concept teaching. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Res Sci Teach 45: 554,573, 2008 [source]