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Population Models (population + models)
Kinds of Population Models Selected AbstractsModelling space use and dispersal of mammals in real landscapes: a tool for conservationJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2003David W. Macdonald Abstract Aim To explore the usefulness of Spatially Explicit Population Models (SEPMs), incorporating dispersal, as tools for animal conservation, as illustrated by the contrasting cases of four British mammals. Methods For each of the four species (American mink, Mustela vison, pine marten, Martes martes, dormouse, Muscardinus avellanarius and water vole, Arvicola terrestris) a spatial dynamics model was developed based on an integrated geographical information system (GIS) population model that linked space use to the incidence of the species. Each model had, first, a GIS, which stored environmental, habitat and animal population information, and secondly, an individual-based population dynamics module, which simulated home range formation, individual life histories and dispersal within the GIS-held landscape. Results The four models illustrated different interactions between species life-history variables and the landscape, particularly with respect to dispersal. As water voles and dormice occupy home ranges that are small relative to blocks of their habitat, they were most effectively modelled in terms of the dynamics of local populations within habitat blocks but linked by dispersal. In contrast, because the home ranges of American mink and pine marten are large relative to blocks of habitat, they were best modelled as individuals moving through a landscape of more or less useful patches of habitat. For the water vole, the most significant predictors of population size were the carrying capacity of each habitat and the annual number of litters. For the dormouse, the likelihood of catastrophe and the upper limit to dispersal movement were the key variables determining persistence. Adult mortality and home-range size were the only significant partial correlates of total population size for the American mink. Adult mortality was also a significant correlate of total population size in the pine marten, as were litter size and juvenile mortality. In neither the marten nor the mink was dispersal distance a significant factor in determining their persistence in the landscape. Main conclusions At a landscape scale it is difficult to measure animal distributions directly and yet conservation planning often necessitates knowledge of where, and in what numbers, animals are found, and how their distributions will be affected by interventions. SEPMs offer a useful tool for predicting this, and for refining conservation plans before irreversible decisions are taken in practice. [source] TK/TD dose,response modeling of toxicityENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 5 2007Munni Begum Abstract In environmental cancer risk assessment of a toxic chemical, the main focus is in understanding induced target organ toxicity that may in turn lead to carcinogenicity. Mathematical models based on systems of ordinary differential equations with biologically relevant parameters are tenable methods for describing the disposition of chemicals in target organs. In evaluation of a toxic chemical, dose,response assessment often addresses only toxicodynamics (TD) of the chemical, while its toxicokinetics (TK) do not enter into consideration. The primary objective of this research is to integrate both TK and TD in evaluation of toxic chemicals while performing dose,response assessment. Population models, with hierarchical setup and nonlinear predictors, for TK concentration and TD effect measures are considered. A one-compartment model with biologically relevant parameters, such as organ volume, uptake rate and excretion rate, or clearance, is used to derive the TK predictor while a two parameter Emax model is used as a predictor for TD measures. Inference of the model parameters with nonnegative and assay's Limit of Detection (LOD) constraints was carried out by Bayesian approaches using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Demography of the California Condor: Implications for ReestablishmentCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2000Vicky J. Meretsky The most prominent mortality factor was lead poisoning resulting from ingestion of bullet fragments in carcasses. Successful captive breeding has allowed many birds to be released to the wild since 1992, based originally on an assumption that exposure to lead could be prevented by food subsidy. The mortality of released birds, however, has generally exceeded levels needed for population stability calculated from simple population models. Collision with overhead wires was the most frequent cause of death in releases before 1994. Lead poisoning again surfaced as a problem starting in 1997 as older birds began feeding on carcasses outside the subsidy program. Although poisonings have been treated successfully by chelation therapy in recaptured birds, food subsidy is proving an ineffective solution to lead exposure. The best long-term solution appears to be either the creation of large reserves where hunting is prohibited or the restriction of hunting to nontoxic ammunition in release areas. Until sources of lead contamination are effectively countered, releases cannot be expected to result in viable populations. In addition, problems involving human-oriented behavior have resulted in the permanent removal of many released birds from the wild. The most promising reduction in human-oriented behavior has been achieved in one release of aversively conditioned, parent-reared birds. Rigorous evaluation of the factors reducing attraction to humans and human structures has been hampered by confounding of techniques in releases. Behavioral problems could be more quickly overcome by adoption of a comprehensive experimental approach. Resumen: Las poblaciones silvestres remanentes del cóndor de California (Gymnogyps californianus) de los anõs 80 exhibieron una disminución poblacional rápida debido a altas tasas de mortalidad de individuos adultos e inmaduros. El factor de mortalidad más prominente fue el envenenamiento por plomo ocasionado por la ingestión de fragmentos de municiones en cadáveres. La reproducción exitosa en cautiverio ha permitido muchas liberaciones en ambientes silvestres desde 1992, bajo el argumento de que la exposición al plomo puede ser prevenida mediante el subsidio de alimento. Sin embargo, la mortalidad de aves liberadas ha excedido generalmente los niveles necesarios para alcanzar una estabilidad poblacional calculada a partir de modelos poblacionales simples. Las colisiones con alambres en lo alto fueron la causa más frecuente de las muertes en liberaciones anteriores a 1994. A partir de 1997, el envenenamiento con plomo surgió una vez más como un problema, puesto que las aves de edad avanzada comenzaron a alimentarse de cadáveres fuera del programa de subsidio. A pesar de que el envenenamiento ha sido tratado exitosamente mediante terapia de quelación de las aves recapturadas, el subsidio de alimento ha probado ser una solución ineficaz contra la exposición al plomo. Las mejores soluciones de largo plazo aparentan ser la creación de reservas grandes donde la caza sea prohibida o se restrinja la caza a municiones no tóxicas en las áreas de liberación. Solo una vez que la contaminación por plomo sea contrarrestada efectivamente, no se podrá esperar que las liberaciones resulten en poblaciones viables. Además, los problemas de conductas orientadas hacia humanos ha resultado en la remoción permanente de muchas aves liberadas de zonas silvestres. La reducción más prometedora de conductas orientadas hacia humanos ha sido obtenida en una liberación de aves criadas por sus padres y condicionadas adversamente. La evaluación rigurosa de los factores que reducen la atracción hacia humanos y estructuras de humanos ha sido obstaculizada por la confusión de técnicas en las liberaciones. Los problemas de conducta podrían ser superados más rápidamente mediante la adopción de una estrategia experimental comprensiva. [source] Dynamic distribution modelling: predicting the present from the pastECOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2009Stephen G. Willis Confidence in projections of the future distributions of species requires demonstration that recently-observed changes could have been predicted adequately. Here we use a dynamic model framework to demonstrate that recently-observed changes at the expanding northern boundaries of three British butterfly species can be predicted with good accuracy. Previous work established that the distributions of the study species currently lag behind climate change, and so we presumed that climate is not currently a major constraint at the northern range margins of our study species. We predicted 1970,2000 distribution changes using a colonisation model, MIGRATE, superimposed on a high-resolution map of habitat availability. Thirty-year rates and patterns of distribution change could be accurately predicted for each species (, goodness-of-fit of models >0.64 for all three species, corresponding to >83% of grid cells correctly assigned), using a combination of individual species traits, species-specific habitat associations and distance-dependent dispersal. Sensitivity analyses showed that population productivity was the most important determinant of the rate of distribution expansion (variation in dispersal rate was not studied because the species are thought to be similar in dispersal capacity), and that each species' distribution prior to expansion was critical in determining the spatial pattern of the current distribution. In future, modelling approaches that combine climate suitability and spatially-explicit population models, incorporating demographic variables and habitat availability, are likely to be valuable tools in projecting species' responses to climatic change and hence in anticipating management to facilitate species' dispersal and persistence. [source] Density-dependent dispersal in birds and mammalsECOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2005Erik Matthysen Density-dependent dispersal can be caused by various mechanisms, from competition inducing individuals to emigrate (positive density-dependence) to social crowding effects impeding free movement (negative density-dependence). Various spatial population models have incorporated positively density-dependent dispersal algorithms, and recent theoretical models have explored the conditions for density-dependent dispersal (DD) to evolve. However, while the existence of DD is well documented in some taxa such as insects, there is no clear picture on its generality in vertebrates. Here I review the available empirical data on DD in birds and mammals, focusing mainly on variation in dispersal between years and on experimental density manipulations. Surprisingly few studies have explicitly focused on DD, and interpretation of the available data is often hampered by differences in approach, small sample sizes and/or statistical shortcomings. Positive DD was reported in 50 and 33% of the selected mammal and bird studies, respectively, while two studies on mammals (out of eight) reported negative DD. Among bird studies, DD was more often reported for emigration rates or long-distance recoveries than for average distances within finite study areas. Experimental studies manipulating densities (mainly on mammals) have consistently generated positive DD, typically showing reduced emigration in response to partial population removal. Studies that examined dispersal in relation to seasonal changes in density (small mammals only) have more often reported negative DD. Studies that compared dispersal between sites differing in density, also show a mixture of positive and negative DD. This suggests that dispersal changes in a more complex way with seasonal and spatial density variation than with annual densities, and/or that these results are confounded by other factors differing between seasons and sites, such as habitat quality. I conclude that both correlational and experimental studies support the existence of positive, rather than negative, density-dependent dispersal in birds and mammals. [source] Intraspecific variation in the strength of density dependence in aphid populationsECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Anurag A. Agrawal Abstract., 1. Experimental evidence is presented for positive, negative, and no density dependence from 32 independent density manipulations of milkweed aphids (Aphis nerii) in laboratory and field experiments. This substantial variation in intraspecific density dependence is associated with temperature and host-plant species. 2. It is reported that as population growth rate increases, density dependence becomes more strongly negative, suggesting that the monotonic definition of density dependence used in many common population models is appropriate for these aphids, and that population growth rate and carrying capacity are not directly proportional. 3. For populations that conform to these assumptions, population growth rate may be widely applicable as a predictor of the strength of density dependence. [source] Demographic analysis of continuous-time life-history modelsECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 1 2008André M. De Roos Abstract I present a computational approach to calculate the population growth rate, its sensitivity to life-history parameters and associated statistics like the stable population distribution and the reproductive value for exponentially growing populations, in which individual life history is described as a continuous development through time. The method is generally applicable to analyse population growth and performance for a wide range of individual life-history models, including cases in which the population consists of different types of individuals or in which the environment is fluctuating periodically. It complements comparable methods developed for discrete-time dynamics modelled with matrix or integral projection models. The basic idea behind the method is to use Lotka's integral equation for the population growth rate and compute the integral occurring in that equation by integrating an ordinary differential equation, analogous to recently derived methods to compute steady-states of physiologically structured population models. I illustrate application of the method using a number of published life-history models. [source] The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help,ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 10 2008Valery E. Forbes Abstract We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics") responses to quantitative structure,activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated. [source] MEASURING PROBABILISTIC REACTION NORMS FOR AGE AND SIZE AT MATURATIONEVOLUTION, Issue 4 2002Mikko Heino Abstract We present a new probabilistic concept of reaction norms for age and size at maturation that is applicable when observations are carried out at discrete time intervals. This approach can also be used to estimate reaction norms for age and size at metamorphosis or at other ontogenetic transitions. Such estimations are critical for understanding phenotypic plasticity and life-history changes in variable environments, assessing genetic changes in the presence of phenotypic plasticity, and calibrating size- and age-structured population models. We show that previous approaches to this problem, based on regressing size against age at maturation, give results that are systematically biased when compared to the probabilistic reaction norms. The bias can be substantial and is likely to lead to qualitatively incorrect conclusions; it is caused by failing to account for the probabilistic nature of the maturation process. We explain why, instead, robust estimations of maturation reaction norms should be based on logistic regression or on other statistical models that treat the probability of maturing as a dependent variable. We demonstrate the utility of our approach with two examples. First, the analysis of data generated for a known reaction norm highlights some crucial limitations of previous approaches. Second, application to the northeast arctic cod (Gadus morhua) illustrates how our approach can be used to shed new light on existing real-world data. [source] Principles and approaches to abate seabird by-catch in longline fisheriesFISH AND FISHERIES, Issue 1 2005Eric Gilman Abstract Mortality in longline fisheries is a critical global threat to most albatross and large petrel species. Here we identify key principles and approaches to identify and achieve broad use of effective seabird by-catch avoidance methods. Despite the availability of highly effective and cost-saving seabird avoidance methods, few longline fleets employ them. Given the political context and capacity of management authorities of the majority of longline fisheries, it is critical to identify seabird avoidance strategies that are not only highly effective, but are also economically viable and commercially practical. Adoption of an international performance standard for longline baited hook,sink rate, and prescribing minimum gear weighting designs that meet this standard that are achievable by all longline fisheries, would be an important step forward towards resolving low use of seabird avoidance methods by vessels, including those in illegal, unregulated and unreported fisheries. Due to differences between fleets, no single seabird avoidance measure is likely to be effective and practical in all longline fisheries. Therefore, testing of seabird avoidance methods in individual fleets is needed to determine efficacy and economic viability. Longline fishers should directly participate in these trials as they have a large repository of knowledge and skills to effectively develop and improve seabird by-catch avoidance techniques, and this provides industry with a sense of ownership for uptake of effective by-catch reduction methods. Establishing protected areas containing seabird colonies and adjacent waters within a nation's EEZ can be an expedient method to address seabird by-catch. However, establishing high seas marine protected areas to restrict longline fishing in seabird foraging areas, which would require extensive and dynamic boundaries and large buffer zones, may not be a viable short-term solution because of the extensive time anticipated to resolve legal complications with international treaties, to achieve international consensus and political will, and to acquire requisite extensive resources for surveillance and enforcement. Analysis of results of research on seabird avoidance methods reveals that the most reliable comparisons of the efficacy of alternative strategies are from comparing the effectiveness of methods tested in a single experiment. Benefits from standardizing the reporting of seabird by-catch rates to account for seabird abundance are described. To provide the most precise inputs for seabird population models, estimates of seabird mortality in longline fisheries should account for seabird falloff from hooks before hauling, delayed mortality of seabirds caught but freed from gear, and mortality caused by hooks discarded in offal. [source] Linking movement behaviour, dispersal and population processes: is individual variation a key?JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2009Colin Hawkes Summary 1Movement behaviour has become increasingly important in dispersal ecology and dispersal is central to the development of spatially explicit population ecology. The ways in which the elements have been brought together are reviewed with particular emphasis on dispersal distance distributions and the value of mechanistic models. 2There is a continuous range of movement behaviours and in some species, dispersal is a clearly delineated event but not in others. The biological complexities restrict conclusions to high-level generalizations but there may be principles that are common to dispersal and other movements. 3Random walk and diffusion models when appropriately elaborated can provide an understanding of dispersal distance relationships on spatial and temporal scales relevant to dispersal. Leptokurtosis in the relationships may be the result of a combination of factors including population heterogeneity, correlation, landscape features, time integration and density dependence. The inclusion in diffusion models of individual variation appears to be a useful elaboration. The limitations of the negative exponential and other phenomenological models are discussed. 4The dynamics of metapopulation models are sensitive to what appears to be small differences in the assumptions about dispersal. In order to represent dispersal realistically in population models, it is suggested that phenomenological models should be replaced by those based on movement behaviour incorporating individual variation. 5The conclusions are presented as a set of candidate principles for evaluation. The main features of the principles are that uncorrelated or correlated random walk, not linear movement, is expected where the directions of habitat patches are unpredictable and more complex behaviour when organisms have the ability to orientate or navigate. Individuals within populations vary in their movement behaviour and dispersal; part of this variation is a product of random elements in movement behaviour and some of it is heritable. Local and metapopulation dynamics are influenced by population heterogeneity in dispersal characteristics and heritable changes in dispersal propensity occur on time-scales short enough to impact population dynamics. [source] Time to extinction in relation to mating system and type of density regulation in populations with two sexesJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2004BERNT-ERIK SÆTHER Summary 1Population viability models usually consider only the female segment of the population. However, random variation in sex ratio as well as the mating system may also affect variation in fitness among females. Here we develop population models incorporating demographic stochasticity in both sexes. Furthermore, we consider the effects on the estimated time to extinction and whether density regulation acts only on females or on total population size. 2We applied these models to two populations of polygynous great reed warblers Acrocephalus arundinaceus L. with differences in population trends to investigate the importance of considering sex in population viability models. 3Demographic stochasticity was larger in a polygynous than in a monogamous mating system. 4The estimated time to extinction was considerably shorter for a monogamous than for a polygynous mating system, particularly if density regulation acted only on females than rather on the total population. 5This study demonstrates that structure of mating system must be included when making population viability analysis based on counts of total population sizes. It is especially important to model the specific effects of density regulation on the two sexes. [source] Matrix models for a changeable world: the importance of transient dynamics in population managementJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Thomas H. G. Ezard Summary 1.,Matrix population models are tools for elucidating the association between demographic processes and population dynamics. A large amount of useful theory pivots on the assumption of equilibrium dynamics. The preceding transient is, however, of genuine conservation concern as it encompasses the short-term impact of natural or anthropogenic disturbance on the population. 2.,We review recent theoretical advances in deterministic transient analysis of matrix projection models, considering how disturbance can alter population dynamics by provoking a new population trajectory. 3.,We illustrate these impacts using plant and vertebrate systems across contiguous and fragmented landscapes. 4.,Short-term responses are of fundamental relevance for applied ecology, because the time-scale of transient effects is often similar to the length of many conservation projects. Investigation of the immediate, post-disturbance phase is vital for understanding how population processes respond to widespread disturbance in the short- and into the long term. 5.,Synthesis and applications.,Transient analysis is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of management activities. By considering short-term population responses to perturbations, especially in long-lived species, managers can develop more informed strategies for species harvesting or controlling of invasive species. [source] Estimation of immigration rate using integrated population modelsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Fitsum Abadi Summary 1.,The dynamics of many populations is strongly affected by immigrants. However, estimating and modelling immigration is a real challenge. In the past, several methods have been developed to estimate immigration rate but they either require strong assumptions or combine in a piecewise manner the results from separate analyses. In most methods the effects of covariates cannot be modelled formally. 2.,We developed a Bayesian integrated population model which combines capture,recapture data, population counts and information on reproductive success into a single model that estimates and models immigration rate, while directly assessing the impact of environmental covariates. 3.,We assessed parameter identifiability by comparing posterior distributions of immigration rates under varying priors, and illustrated the application of the model with long term demographic data of a little owl Athene noctua population from Southern Germany. We further assessed the impact of environmental covariates on immigration. 4.,The resulting posterior distributions were insensitive to different prior distributions and dominated by the observed data, indicating that the immigration rate was identifiable. Average yearly immigration into the little owl population was 0·293 (95% credible interval 0·183,0·418), which means that ca 0·3 female per resident female entered the population every year. Immigration rate tended to increase with increasing abundance of voles, the main prey of little owls. 5.Synthesis and applications. The means to estimate and model immigration is an important step towards a better understanding of the dynamics of geographically open populations. The demographic estimates obtained from the developed integrated population model facilitate population diagnoses and can be used to assess population viability. The structural flexibility of the model should constitute a useful tool for wildlife managers and conservation ecologists. [source] General guidelines for invasive plant management based on comparative demography of invasive and native plant populationsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Satu Ramula Summary 1General guidelines for invasive plant management are currently lacking. Population declines may be achieved by focusing control on demographic processes (survival, growth, fecundity) with the greatest impact on population growth rate. However, we often have little demographic information on populations in the early stages of an invasion when control can be most effective. Here we determine whether synthesis of existing demographic data on invasive and native plant populations can address this knowledge problem. 2We compared population dynamics between invasive and native species using published matrix population models for 21 invasive and 179 native plant species. We examined whether the population growth rate responsiveness to survival, growth and fecundity perturbations varied between invasive and native species, and determined which demographic processes of invaders to target for reductions in population growth rate. 3Invaders had higher population growth rates (,) than natives, resulting in differences in demographic processes. Perturbations of growth and fecundity transitions (elasticities) were more important for population growth of invaders, whereas perturbations of survival had greater importance for population growth of natives. 4For both invasive and native species, elasticities of , to survival increased with life span and decreased with ,; while elasticities to growth and fecundity decreased with life span and increased with ,. 5For long-lived invaders, simulated reductions in either survival, growth or fecundity transitions were generally insufficient to produce population declines, whereas multiple reductions in either survival + growth or survival + fecundity were more effective. For short-lived invaders, simulated reductions in growth or fecundity and all pairwise multiple reductions produced population declines. 6Synthesis and applications. Life history and population growth rate of invasive species are important in the selection of control targets. For rapidly growing populations of short-lived invaders, growth and fecundity transitions should be prioritized as control targets over survival transitions. For long-lived invaders, simultaneous reductions in more than one demographic process, preferably survival and growth, are usually required to ensure population decline. These general guidelines can be applied to rapidly growing new plant invasions and at the invasion front where detailed demographic data on invasive species are lacking. [source] Spatial viability analysis of Amur tiger Panthera tigris altaica in the Russian Far East: the role of protected areas and landscape matrix in population persistenceJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2006CARLOS CARROLL Summary 1The Amur or Siberian tiger Panthera tigris altaica forms a relatively small and disjunct population of less than 600 individuals in the Russian Far East. Because tigers in this region require large territories to acquire sufficient prey, current strictly protected areas, comprising 3·4% (10 300 km2) of the region, are unlikely to prevent extirpation of the subspecies in the face of expanding forestry and external demand for tiger parts. 2We used resource selection function models and spatially explicit population models to analyse the distribution and predict the demographic structure of the population to identify policy options that may enhance population viability. 3A resource selection function model developed from track distribution data predicted that tigers were most likely to occur in lower altitude valley bottoms with Korean pine forest and low human impacts. 4The results from the spatially explicit population model suggested that current tiger distribution is highly dependent on de facto refugia with low human impacts but without statutory protection, and that small increases in mortality in these areas will result in range fragmentation. Although an expanded reserve network only marginally increases tiger viability under current conditions, it dramatically enhances distribution under potential future scenarios, preventing regional extirpation despite a more hostile landscape matrix. 5The portion of tiger range most resistant to extirpation connects a large coastal reserve in the central portion of the region with largely unprotected watersheds to the north. A southern block of habitat is also important but more severely threatened with anthropogenic disturbances. The results suggest that preserving source habitat in these two zones and ensuring linkages are retained between blocks of habitat in the north and south will be critical to the survival of the tiger population. 6Synthesis and applications. Conservation priorities identified in this analysis differ from those suggested by a conservation paradigm focusing only on sustaining and connecting existing protected areas that has been applied to tiger conservation in more developed landscapes with higher prey densities. An alternative paradigm that assesses population viability in a whole-landscape context and develops priorities for both protected area expansion and increasing survival rates in the landscape matrix may be more appropriate in areas where tigers and other large carnivores coexist with low-density human populations. Although landscape connectivity merits increased emphasis in conservation planning, identification of landscape linkages should be tied to broad-scale recommendations resulting from spatial viability analyses in order to prevent misdirection of resources towards protecting corridors that add little to population persistence. [source] Approaches for testing herbivore effects on plant population dynamicsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2006STACEY L. HALPERN Summary 1As plant invasions pose one of the greatest threats to biodiversity, it is critical to improve both our understanding of invasiveness and strategies for control. Much research into plant invasions and their management, including biological control, assumes strong demographic effects by natural enemies, including herbivores. However, the importance of natural enemies in the regulation of plant populations remains controversial: some ecologists contend that they rarely affect plant populations, and others that they can strongly limit plant population sizes. 2We briefly review the conflicting views and suggest that new approaches to gather and analyse data are needed before the effects of natural enemies on plant populations can be fully characterized. 3We outline experimental and analytical approaches that incorporate density dependence into population models and thus provide a more complete test of the long-term effects of natural enemies on plant populations. We also introduce new methods for obtaining stochastic estimates of equilibrium density, which will provide a key test of enemy effects on plant population size. 4Synthesis and applications. Designing effective strategies for invasive plant management requires information about the factors that limit plant population size. Together, the experiments and analyses we describe measure more clearly how natural enemies influence plant population dynamics. They will provide an important tool in evaluating the role of enemy release in plant invasions and for predicting the potential success of biological control. Such information should help to prioritize strategies that are most likely to control invasive plants effectively and will contribute to risk assessment when considering the release of non-native natural enemies as biological control agents. [source] Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods,JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2006WILLIAM J. SUTHERLAND Summary 1There is a clear need to increase our ability to predict the consequences of environmental change. The seven main approaches that are currently used are: extrapolation, experiments, phenomenological models, game-theory population models, expert opinion, outcome-driven modelling and scenarios. Each approach has different strengths and weaknesses. In practice, several approaches are often combined. 2Adaptive management aimed at testing hypotheses is excellent in principle and widely advocated. In reality, however, it is almost never carried out because the changes in management usually have to be severe in order to bring about detectable changes in a reasonable time, and the political risks of such management are usually considered too high. 3Game-theory population models are used to determine population-level phenomena based upon the decisions individuals make in response to resource depletion, interference, territoriality or rank. This allows predictions to be made regarding responses to novel conditions. The main drawback is that for some models considerable information is required. 4Much of conservation practice is not based upon evidence. Evidence-based conservation is the practice of accumulating, reviewing and disseminating evidence with the aim of formulating appropriate management strategies. Evidence-based medicine revolutionized medical practice and similar opportunities exist to improve conservation practice. 5Synthesis and applications. The conventional approach of making assumptions and deriving models to make predictions about the consequences of environmental change is often unsatisfactory for complex problems, with considerable uncertainty. Tackling such problems is likely to require greater exploration of techniques such as expert opinion, output-driven modelling and scenarios. [source] Comparing strategies for controlling an African pest rodent: an empirically based theoretical studyJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2001Nils Chr. Summary 1Small rodents in general and the multimammate rat Mastomys natalensis in particular cause major economic losses in Africa through damage to crops. Attempts to develop dynamic population models for this and other pest rodents are ongoing. 2Demographic estimates from a capture,mark,recapture (CMR) study in Tanzania were used to parameterize a population model for this species. This model incorporated three functional age categories (juveniles, subadults and adults) of both sexes and used density-dependent and density-independent factors, the latter represented by rainfall. 3The model was used to analyse the effect of rodent control on the population dynamics and resulting number of rats. Control measures affecting survival as well as reproduction were considered. 4The model showed that control measures reducing survival will only have long-term effects on population size if they are also applied when rodent densities are low. Control measures applied only when rodent densities are high will not have persistent effects, even at high mortality rates. 5The model demonstrated that control measures reducing reproduction are likely to prevent Mastomys outbreaks, but will keep densities low over a long period only when the contraceptive effect is strong (> 75% reduction). 6Provided that CMR data are available, we recommend developing Leslie-type population models for rodent pests on the basis of CMR-estimated demographic schedules. Such models have great potential in rodent management and allow the evaluation of different strategies. 7Besides improving the ecological basis of the population modelling, economic considerations need to be incorporated into decisions about rodent control. We suggest that appropriate population models will provide important input into such decision making. [source] Heterogeneous grazing causes local extinction of edible perennial shrubs: a matrix analysisJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001L.P. Hunt Summary 1Population modelling and field measurements of births, growth and deaths were used to investigate the long-term change in abundance of Atriplex vesicaria (Chenopodiaceae), a long-lived, palatable, perennial shrub, under sheep grazing. Of particular interest was whether A. vesicaria is at risk of being eliminated throughout grazed paddocks when the recommended practice of continuous grazing at conservative stocking rates is employed. 2Time-invariant matrix population models indicated that the A. vesicaria population was in decline over much of the study paddock, but the rate of decline was greatest nearer to the water point (population growth rate , , 0·8). Time-varying stochastic matrix models projected that the A. vesicaria population would become locally extinct at most sites up to approximately 2200 m from water, occurring first closer to water (within 12,29 years). The population was stable (i.e. , , 1) at sites greater than 2200 m from water over the projection period of 100 years. 3Decreases in adult survival and recruitment made the largest contributions to reductions in the population growth rate. However, there were spatial patterns centred on the water point in the degree to which particular demographic processes contributed to these reductions, because of a grazing gradient and the differential sensitivity of demographic processes to grazing. Thus decreases in recruitment contributed to reductions in the population growth rate at greater distances. Such responses, together with the sensitivity of the population growth rate to these processes, determined the spatial pattern in population growth. 4The results suggest that piospheres (i.e. the zone of impact) continue to expand over many years under set-stocking so that the area around the water point that is devoid of A. vesicaria becomes larger. The process of expansion appears to first involve the inhibition of recruitment, followed by eventual mortality of established shrubs. 5The large contribution of adult survival to the population growth rate in A. vesicaria suggests that minimizing the mortality of established adults should be a priority for management. This is likely to involve resting from grazing at critical times such as during extended dry periods. This may also permit increased levels of recruitment during subsequent moister periods. [source] Density dependence and population dynamics of black rhinos (Diceros bicornis michaeli) in Kenya's rhino sanctuariesAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Benson Okita-Ouma Abstract Density-dependent feedback mechanisms provide insights into the population dynamics and interactions of large herbivores with their ecosystem. Sex ratio also has particularly important implications for growth rates of many large mammal populations through its influence on reproductive potential. Therefore, the interrelationships between density-dependent factors, comprising density, sex ratio and underlying growth rates (r) were examined for the Eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli) living in three rhino sanctuaries in Kenya using four population models. The exponential and logistic models gave similar results and the former were accepted because they better portrayed the actual situation on the ground. Sex ratios in all sanctuary populations were positively correlated with r but interpreted with realization of other factors also affecting r. We caution that the results of population models should be interpreted alongside ground-truthed observations. We recommend that future translocation strategies should take into account sex and age structures of the donor population, while future studies of density dependence should take into account both biotic and abiotic factors. Résumé Des mécanismes de feedback de densité-dépendance chez les grands herbivores donnent un aperçu de la dynamique des populations et de l'interaction avec l'écosystème. Les sex-ratios ont aussi d'importantes implications pour la dynamique des populations de nombreux grands mammifères, spécialement par leur influence sur le potentiel reproducteur. On a étudié ces relations croisées entre les facteurs densité-dépendants du rhino noir de l'Est Diceros bicornis michaeli, le sex-ratio et le taux de croissance (r) sous-jacent dans trois sanctuaires de rhinos du Kenya en utilisant quatre modèles de population. Les modèles exponentiel et logistique donnaient des résultats similaires, les résultats du premier étant acceptés parce qu'ils représentaient la situation actuelle sur le terrain. Les sex-ratios de toutes les populations étaient positivement liés àr mais interprétés en réalisant que d'autres facteurs affectent aussi r. Nous attirons l'attention sur le fait que les résultats de la modélisation des populations doivent être interprétés tout en les confirmant par des observations sur le terrain; nous recommandons des stratégies de translocations qui prélèvent des individus dans les diverses structures de sexe et d'âge de la population d'origine; et nous suggérons que de futures études de densité-dépendance tiennent compte de facteurs biotiques et abiotiques. [source] Population responses to natural and human-mediated disturbances: assessing the vulnerability of the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius)AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2007Rebecca Lewison Abstract Vulnerable wildlife populations can face a suite of anthropogenic activities that may threaten their persistence. However, human-mediated disturbances are likely to be coincident with natural disturbances that also influence a population. This synergism is often neglected in population projection models. Here I evaluate the effects of natural (rainfall fluctuation) and human disturbances (habitat loss and unregulated hunting) using a multi-matrix environmental state population model for the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius). By evaluating each disturbance type (natural and human) alone and then together, I explicitly consider the importance of incorporating realistic environmental variability into population projection models. The model population was most strongly affected by moderate habitat loss, which yielded the highest probability of crossing the risk thresholds over the 60 year time period, although these probabilities were relatively low (,0.31). However, the likelihood of crossing the risk thresholds were two to five times as high when human-mediated and natural disturbances were considered together. When these probabilities were calculated per year of the simulation, the results suggested that even relatively mild human disturbances, when considered in conjunction with realistic natural disturbance, resulted in a high probability (>0.50) of substantial declines within decades. The model highlights the importance of integrating realistic natural disturbances into population models, and suggests that, despite locally abundant populations, protected hippopotamus populations may decline over the next 60 years in response to a combination of environmental fluctuations and human-mediated threats. Résumé Les populations sauvages vulnérables peuvent être confrontées à une suite d'activités humaines qui risquent de menacer leur persistance. Cependant, les perturbations causées par l'homme sont susceptibles de coïncider avec des perturbations naturelles qui influencent aussi une population. Cette synergie est souvent négligée dans les modèles de projection des populations. Ici, j'évalue les effets des perturbations naturelles (fluctuations des chutes de pluie) et humaines (perte d'habitat et chasse non réglementée) en utilisant une chaîne de matrices aléatoires pour l'état environnemental d'une population d'hippopotames (Hippopotamus amphibius). En évaluant chaque type de perturbation (naturelle et humaine) seul et ensemble, je considère explicitement l'importance qu'il y a d'intégrer une variabilité environnementale réaliste dans les modèles de projection des populations. La population modèle était surtout affectée par une perte d'habitat modérée, qui réunissait la plus grande probabilité de dépasser les seuils de risque en une période de 60 ans, même si cette probabilitéétait relativement faible (,0,31). Cependant, la probabilité de franchir les seuils de risque était 2 à 5 fois plus grande lorsque les perturbations d'origine humaine et naturelle étaient considérées ensemble. Lorsque ces probabilités étaient calculées par année, les résultats de la simulation suggéraient que même des perturbations humaines faibles, quand on les considérait en conjonction avec une perturbation naturelle réaliste, résultaient en une forte probabilité (>0,50) de déclin substantiel en quelques décennies. Le modèle souligne l'importance qu'il y a d'intégrer les perturbations naturelles réalistes dans les modèles de population et suggère que, malgré des populations localement abondantes, les populations protégées d'hippopotames peuvent décliner au cours des 60 prochaines années en réaction à une combinaison de fluctuations environnementales et de menaces d'origine humaine. [source] Nonparametric population modeling of valproate pharmacokinetics in epileptic patients using routine serum monitoring data: implications for dosageJOURNAL OF CLINICAL PHARMACY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 2 2004I. B. Bondareva Summary Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of valproate (VAL) is important in the optimization of its therapy. The aim of the present work was to evaluate the ability of TDM using model-based, goal-oriented Bayesian adaptive control for help in planning, monitoring, and adjusting individualized VAL dosing regimens. USC*PACK software and routine TDM data were used to estimate population and individual pharmacokinetics of two commercially available VAL formulations in epileptic adult and pediatric patients on chronic VAL monotherapy. The population parameter values found were in agreement with values reported earlier. A statistically significant (P < 0.001) difference in median values of the absorption rate constant was found between enteric-coated and sustained-release VAL formulations. In our patients (aged 0·25,53 years), VAL clearance declined with age until adult values were reached at about age 10. Because of the large interindividual variability in PK behavior, the median population parameter values gave poor predictions of the observed VAL serum concentrations. In contrast, the Bayesian individualized models gave good predictions for all subjects in all populations. The Bayesian posterior individualized PK models were based on the population models described here and where most patients had two (a peak and a trough) measured serum concentrations. Repeated consultations and adjusted dosage regimens with some patients allowed us to evaluate any possible influence of dose-dependent VAL clearance on the precision of total VAL concentration predictions based on TDM data and the proposed population models. These nonparametric expectation maximization (NPEM) population models thus provide a useful tool for planning an initial dosage regimen of VAL to achieve desired target peak and trough serum concentration goals, coupled with TDM soon thereafter, as a peak,trough pair of serum concentrations, and Bayesian fitting to individualize the PK model for each patient. The nonparametric PK parameter distributions in these NPEM population models also permit their use by the new method of ,multiple model' dosage design, which allows the target goals to be achieved specifically with maximum precision. Software for both types of Bayesian adaptive control is now available to employ these population models in clinical practice. [source] Rainfall effects on rare annual plantsJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Jonathan M. Levine Summary 1Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood. 2We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future. 3Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5,12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants. 4Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect. 5Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall. 6Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall. [source] The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, CaliforniaJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2005PHILLIP J. VAN MANTGEM Summary 1We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. [source] A spatial model of coexistence among three Banksia species along a topographic gradient in fire-prone shrublandsJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2002J. Groeneveld Summary 1A spatially explicit, rule-based model for three co-occurring Banksia species was developed to investigate coexistence mediating processes in a fire-prone shrubland in western Australia. Fecundity, recruitment, mortality and other biological data for two non-sprouting (B. hookeriana, B. prionotes) and one resprouting (B. attenuata) species were available from 15 years of empirical field studies. 2Without interspecific competition, each species could persist for a wide range of fire intervals (10 to > 20 years). The resprouting species performed better under shorter fire intervals (10,13 years), while both non-sprouting species were favoured by longer (15 to > 20 years) fire intervals. These results conform with those obtained from single-species, non-spatial population models. 3When interspecific competition for space was included in the model, all three species exhibited optima at shorter fire intervals and with a narrower range than in isolation. The three species did not co-occur under any fire regime. At intermediate fire frequencies (11,13 years), B. hookeriana excluded the other species, while for longer intervals between fires B. prionotes became dominant. 4The introduction of temporal (stochastic) variability in fire intervals (drawn from a normal distribution) failed to produce coexistence, unless spatial variability as a spatial ignition gradient was also included. The spatial arrangement of the non-sprouters observed in the field was then reproduced. 5Observed patterns of coexistence and spatial distributions of all species occurred when a spatial establishment gradient for the resprouter species was included in the model (individuals of B. attenuata are known to produce more seeds in swales than on dune crests and recruit seedlings here more frequently). 6Coexistence appears to be highly dependent upon the mean interfire period in combination with subtle gradients associated with fire propagation and recruitment conditions. Variation around the mean fire interval is less critical. When the system is modelled over a long time period (1500 years) coexistence is most strongly favoured for a narrow window of mean fire intervals (12,14 years). [source] Food-dependent individual growth and population dynamics in fishes,JOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 2006L. Persson It is long since well established that growth and development in fish individuals are heavily dependent on food intake. Yet, this dependence of individual development on food levels has only to a limited extent been taken into consideration when studying fish population and community processes. Using the modelling framework of physiologically structured population models and empirical data for a number of species configurations, how different size-dependent processes may affect fish population dynamics and community structures are reviewed. Considering competitive interactions, cohort interactions will often give rise to cohort cycles driven by an inequality in competitive abilities between differently sized individuals. The addition of cannibalism may dampen these cycles, the extent to which is dependent on life-history characteristics of the cannibals. The circumstance that individuals change their trophic position over their life cycle as a result of an increase in size gives rise to life history omnivory. In such omnivorous systems, food-dependent growth demotes the potential for predatory and prey fishes to coexist. In tritrophic food chains, food-dependent growth in the intermediate consumer may lead to the presence of bistability including sensitivity to catastrophic behaviour. These results shed new light on the drastic decreases observed in the stocks of many marine fish top predators including their inability to recover after fishing moratoria, and on the suggested presence of alternative states in freshwater fish communities. [source] Ecological Associations of Alcohol Outlets With Underage and Young Adult InjuriesALCOHOLISM, Issue 3 2010Paul J. Gruenewald Objective:, This paper argues that associations between rates of 3 specific problems related to alcohol (i.e., accidents, traffic crashes, and assaults) should be differentially related to densities of alcohol outlets among underage youth and young adults based upon age-related patterns of alcohol outlet use. Methods:, Zip code-level population models assessed local and distal effects of alcohol outlets upon rates of hospital discharges for these outcomes. Results:, Densities of off-premise alcohol outlets were significantly related to injuries from accidents, assaults, and traffic crashes for both underage youth and young adults. Densities of bars were associated with more assaults and densities of restaurants were associated with more traffic crash injuries for young adults. Conclusions:, The distribution of alcohol-related injuries relative to alcohol outlets reflect patterns of alcohol outlet use. [source] The age, metallicity and ,-element abundance of Galactic globular clusters from single stellar population modelsMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 4 2007Jon T. Mendel ABSTRACT Establishing the reliability with which stellar population parameters can be measured is vital to extragalactic astronomy. Galactic globular clusters (GCs) provide an excellent medium in which to test the consistency of single stellar population (SSP) models as they should be our best analogue to a homogeneous (single) stellar population. Here we present age, metallicity and ,-element abundance measurements for 48 Galactic GCs as determined from integrated spectra using Lick indices and SSP models from Thomas, Maraston & Korn, Lee & Worthey and Vazdekis et al. By comparing our new measurements to independent determinations we are able to assess the ability of these SSPs to derive consistent results , a key requirement before application to heterogeneous stellar populations like galaxies. We find that metallicity determinations are extremely robust, showing good agreement for all models examined here, including a range of enhancement methods. Ages and ,-element abundances are accurate for a subset of our models, with the caveat that the range of these parameters in Galactic GCs is limited. We are able to show that the application of published Lick index response functions to models with fixed abundance ratios allows us to measure reasonable ,-element abundances from a variety of models. We also examine the age,metallicity and [,/Fe],metallicity relations predicted by SSP models, and characterize the possible effects of varied model horizontal branch morphology on our overall results. [source] The SAURON project , VIII.MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 3 2006OASIS/CFHT integral-field spectroscopy of elliptical, lenticular galaxy centres ABSTRACT We present high spatial resolution integral-field spectroscopy of 28 elliptical (E) and lenticular (S0) galaxies from the SAURON representative survey obtained with the OASIS spectrograph during its operation at the Canada,France,Hawaii Telescope. These seeing-limited observations explore the central 8 × 10 arcsec2 (typically 1 kpc diameter) regions of these galaxies using a spatial sampling four times higher than SAURON (0.27-arcsec versus 0.94-arcsec spatial elements), resulting in almost a factor of 2 improvement in the median point spread function. These data allow accurate study of the central regions to complement the large-scale view provided by SAURON. Here we present the stellar and gas kinematics, stellar absorption-line strengths and nebular emission-line strengths for this sample. We also characterize the stellar velocity maps using the ,kinemetry' technique, and derive maps of the luminosity-weighted stellar age, metallicity and abundance ratio via stellar population models. We give a brief review of the structures found in our maps, linking also to larger-scale structures measured with SAURON. We present two previously unreported kinematically decoupled components (KDCs) in the centres of NGC 3032 and NGC 4382. We compare the intrinsic size and luminosity-weighted stellar age of all the visible KDCs in the full SAURON sample, and find two types of components: kiloparsec-scale KDCs, which are older than 8 Gyr, and are found in galaxies with little net rotation; and compact KDCs, which have intrinsic diameters of less than a few hundred parsec, show a range of stellar ages from 0.5 to 15 Gyr (with 5/6 younger than 5 Gyr), are found exclusively in fast-rotating galaxies, and are close to counter-rotating around the same axis as their host. Of the seven galaxies in the SAURON sample with integrated luminosity-weighted ages less than 5 Gyr, five show such compact KDCs, suggesting a link between counter-rotation and recent star formation. We show that this may be due to a combination of small sample size at young ages, and an observational bias, since young KDCs are easier to detect than their older and/or corotating counterparts. [source] | ||||||||||||||||