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Population Crash (population + crash)
Selected AbstractsThe mid-season crash in aphid populations: why and how does it occur?ECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 4 2004A. J. Karley Abstract., 1. Aphid populations on agricultural crops in temperature regions collapse over a few days from peak numbers to local extinction soon after mid-summer (e.g. mid-July in the U.K.). The populations recover 6,8 weeks later. There is anecdotal or incidental evidence of an equivalent mid-season population crash of aphids on grasses and forbs in natural vegetation. 2. The ecological factors causing the mid-season population crash of aphids include a decline in plant nutritional quality and increased natural enemy pressure as the season progresses. Extreme weather events, e.g. severe rainstorms, can precipitate the crash but weather conditions are not a consistent contributory factor. 3. The population processes underlying the crash comprise enhanced emigration, especially by alate (winged) aphids, depressed performance resulting in reduced birth rates, and elevated mortality caused by natural enemies. 4. Mathematical models, previously applied to aphid populations on agricultural crops, have great potential for studies of aphid dynamics in natural vegetation. In particular, they can help identify the contribution of various ecological factors to the timing of the population crash and offer explanations for how slow changes in population processes can result in a rapid collapse of aphid populations. [source] Spatial variation in population growth rate and community structure affects local and regional dynamicsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2008M. Kurtis Trzcinski Summary 1Theory predicting that populations with high maximum rates of increase (rmax) will be less stable, and that metapopulations with high average rmax will be less synchronous, was tested using a small protist, Bodo, that inhabits pitcher plant leaves (Sarracenia purpurea L.). The effects of predators and resources on these relationships were also determined. 2Abundance data collected for a total of 60 populations of Bodo, over a period of 3 months, at six sites in three bogs in eastern Canada, were used to test these predictions. Mosquitoes were manipulated in half the leaves partway through the season to increase the range of predation rates. 3Dynamics differed greatly among leaves and sites, but most populations exhibited one or more episodes of rapid increase followed by a population crash. Estimates of rmax obtained using a linear mixed-effects model, ranged from 1·5 to 2·7 per day. Resource levels (captured insect) and midge abundances affected rmax. 4Higher rmax was associated with greater temporal variability and lower synchrony as predicted. However, in contrast to expectations, populations with higher rmax also had lower mean abundance and were more suppressed by predators. 5This study demonstrates that the link between rmax and temporal variability is key to understanding the dynamics of populations that spend little time near equilibrium, and to predicting and interpreting the effects of community structure on the dynamics of such populations. [source] Experimental evidence for costs of parasitism for a threatened species, White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa)JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2004MICHAEL L. COLLYER Summary 1We used field and experimental data to test if white grub parasites (Diplostomatidae) are costly to White Sands pupfish (Cyprinodon tularosa), a threatened species restricted to four sites in the Chihuahuan desert, New Mexico. 2Of the four populations of C. tularosa, two are native and two are introduced. The two native populations (Malpais Spring and Salt Creek) are genetically distinct and have been isolated historically in dissimilar aquatic habitats (brackish spring and saline river, respectively). Two populations were established c. 1970 from translocation of Salt Creek fish to another saline river (Lost River) and another brackish spring (Mound Spring). 3Physid snails (Physidae) occur in the two brackish spring habitats but not the saline river habitats. These snails are first intermediate hosts for white grubs (Diplostomatidae). Therefore, the two freshwater populations are infected by diplostomatids. For the Mound Spring population, the ecological relationship of C. tularosa and diplostomatids has only recently occurred. 4In 1995, a population crash occurred for C. tularosa at Mound Spring, associated with a parasite outbreak. Diplostomatids were the presumptive cause of this crash, but this was inferred from observation of infection in collected fish. 5Two years of seasonal sampling of the two populations revealed that all collected fish were infected. Parasite intensities were significantly lower in winter compared to summer, suggesting that heavily infected fish were lost from the population on a seasonal basis. 6We conducted an artificial infection experiment to assess the costs of parasitism for previously uninfected C. tularosa females for various life-history traits. Under experimental conditions, diplostomatid infection caused increases in C. tularosa mortality and decreases in growth and fat storage. Individual-level costs of parasitism may translate to population-level patterns of parasitism for C. tularosa populations. Results from this study suggest that parasites may impact host overwinter survival, which is consistent with lower parasite intensities found during winters in wild populations. [source] Factors influencing Soay sheep survivalJOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES C (APPLIED STATISTICS), Issue 4 2000E. A. Catchpole We present a survival analysis of Soay sheep mark recapture and recovery data. Unlike previous conditional analyses, it is not necessary to assume equality of recovery and recapture probabilities; instead these are estimated by maximum likelihood. Male and female sheep are treated separately, with the higher numbers and survival probabilities of the females resulting in a more complex model than that used for the males. In both cases, however, age and time aspects need to be included and there is a strong indication of a reduction in survival for sheep aged 7 years or more. Time variation in survival is related to the size of the population and selected weather variables, by using logistic regression. The size of the population significantly affects the survival probabilities of male and female lambs, and of female sheep aged 7 or more years. March rainfall and a measure of the North Atlantic oscillation are found to influence survival significantly for all age groups considered, for both males and females. Either of these weather variables can be used in a model. Several phenotypic and genotypic individual covariates are also fitted. The only covariate which is found to influence survival significantly is the type of horn of first-year female sheep. There is a substantial variation in the recovery probabilities over time, reflecting in part the increased effort when a population crash was expected. The goodness of fit of the model is checked by using graphical procedures. [source] Limitation of population recovery: a stochastic approach to the case of the emperor penguinOIKOS, Issue 9 2009Stéphanie Jenouvrier Major population crashes due to natural or human-induced environmental changes may be followed by recoveries. There is a growing interest in the factors governing recovery, in hopes that they might guide population conservation and management, as well as population recovery following a re-introduction program. The emperor penguin Aptenodytes forsteri population in Terre Adélie, Antarctica, declined by 50% during a regime shift in the mid-1970s, when abrupt changes in climate and ocean environment regimes affected the entire Southern Ocean ecosystem. Since then the population has remained stable and has not recovered. To determine the factors limiting recovery, we examined the consequences of changes in survival and breeding success after the regime shift. Adult survival recovered to its pre-regime shift level, but the mean breeding success declined and the variance in breeding success increased after the regime shift. Using stochastic matrix population models, we found that if the distribution of breeding success observed prior to the regime shift had been retained, the emperor penguin population would have recovered, with a median time to recovery of 36 years. The observed distribution of breeding success after the regime shift makes recovery very unlikely. This indicates that the pattern of breeding success is sufficient to have prevented emperor penguin population recovery. The population trajectory predicted on the basis of breeding success agrees with the observed trajectory. This suggests that the net effect of any facors other than breeding success must be small. We found that the probability of recovery and the time to recovery depend on both the mean and variance of breeding success. Increased variance in breeding success increases the probability of recovery when mean success is low, but has the opposite effect when the mean is high. This study shows the important role of breeding success in determining population recovery for a long-lived species and demonstrates that demographic mechanisms causing population crash can be different from those preventing population recovery. [source] The Flask model: emergence of nutrient-recycling microbial ecosystems and their disruption by environment-altering ,rebel' organismsOIKOS, Issue 7 2007Hywel T. P. Williams Here we introduce a new model of life,environment interaction, which simulates an evolving microbial community in a ,Fask' of liquid with prescribed inputs of nutrients. The flask is seeded with a clonal population of ,microbes' that are subject to mutation on genetic loci that determine their nutrient uptake patterns, release patterns, and their effects on, and response to, other environmental variables. In contrast to existing models of life-environment interaction, notably Daisyworld, what benefits the individual organisms is decoupled from their ,global' (system-level) effects. A robust property of the model is the emergence of ecosystems that tend toward a state where nutrients are efficiently utilised and differentially recycled, with a correlated increase in total population. Organisms alter the environment as a free ,by-product' of their growth, and their growth is constrained by adverse environmental effects. This introduces environmental feedback, which can disrupt the model ecosystems, even though there are no constraints on the conditions to which the organisms can theoretically adapt. ,Rebel' organisms can appear that grow rapidly by exploiting an under-utilised resource, but in doing so shift the environment away from the state to which the majority of the community are adapted. The result can be a population crash with lossof recycling, followed by later recovery, or in extreme cases, a total extinction of the system. Numerous runs of these ,flask' ecosystems show that tighter environmental constraints on growth make the system more vulnerable to internally generated ecosystem extinction. [source] | ||||||||||