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Population Age Structure (population + age_structure)
Selected AbstractsContemporary and historical impacts of megaherbivores on the population structure of tree euphorbias in South African subtropical thicketAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2010Richard M. Cowling Abstract African elephant and black rhinoceros , both megaherbivores , impact negatively on the abundance of succulent plants, including tree succulents, in South Africa's subtropical thicket. We sampled 35 sites in subtropical thicket to assess historical and contemporary impacts of African elephant and black rhinoceros on the population structure of three species of succulent tree euphorbia. Population age structures were highly variable and showed no species-specific effects. Almost half the sites had growing populations dominated by young individuals. Sites having contemporary impacts had significantly fewer individuals in the 30,75 years age range, but this effect declined with increasing terrain slope. Eighty-one percent of sites assumed to have been impacted by megaherbivores historically had individuals that predated rhino and elephant extirpation in the region. This and other population age structure data indicate that megaherbivores and tree euphorbias coexisted historically on terrain of low relief. However, in areas not subject to contemporary impacts, euphorbia populations are likely to be much higher now than historically, owing to population relaxation after the extirpation of megaherbivores in the mid 1800s. Given the sensitivity of tree euphorbias to megaherbivore impacts, managers should consider monitoring the population structure of these species in order to identify thresholds of potential concern regarding megaherbivore impacts. Résumé L'éléphant et le rhinocéros africains , deux méga-herbivores , ont un impact négatif sur l'abondance de plantes succulentes, y compris des arbres succulents, dans les fourrés subtropicaux d'Afrique du Sud. Nous avons prélevé des échantillons dans 35 fourrés subtropicaux afin d'évaluer les impacts anciens et actuels des éléphants et des rhinos noirs africains sur la structure de la population de trois espèces d'euphorbes arborescentes succulentes. Les structures d'âges des populations étaient très variables et ne présentaient aucun effet spécifique des espèces. Près de la moitié des sites contenaient des populations en croissance dominées par de jeunes individus. Les sites qui présentaient des impacts actuels comptaient significativement moins d'individus de la classe d'âge comprise entre 30 et 75 ans, mais cet effet diminuait lorsque la pente du terrain s'accentuait. Quatre-vingt-un pour cent des sites supposés avoir subi jadis l'impact des méga-herbivores contenaient des individus qui dataient d'avant l'élimination des rhinos et des éléphants. Ceci, tout comme d'autres données sur la structure d'âge des populations, indique que les méga-herbivores et les euphorbes arborescentes ont longtemps coexisté sur les terrains de faible relief. Cependant, dans les zones qui ne subissent aucun impact actuel, les populations d'euphorbes sont susceptibles d'être beaucoup plus hautes aujourd'hui que jadis, en raison de la libération induite par l'élimination des méga-herbivores au milieu des années 1800. Etant donné la sensibilité des euphorbes arborescentes face aux impacts des méga-herbivores, les gestionnaires devraient envisager le suivi continu de la structure de la population de ces espèces afin de déterminer les seuils d'alerte potentiels en ce qui concerne les impacts des méga-herbivores. [source] DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT AND PROJECTED LABOUR SHORTAGE IN CHINAECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 3 2007INGRID NIELSEN As a result of China's family planning policy of ,raising population quality and controlling population size' initiated in the late 1970s, China has accomplished a population transition from high birth rate, low mortality rate and high population growth to low birth rate, low mortality rate and low population growth within a remarkably short timeframe. Along with this population transition, however, comes a shift in population age structure, with a rapid increase in the proportion of elderly people. This paper explores the implications of China's demographic shift for labour supply and suggests policy changes to target an emerging labour shortage. [source] Exposure and effects assessment of resident mink (Mustela vison) exposed to polychlorinated dibenzofurans and other dioxin-like compounds in the Tittabawassee River basin, Midland, Michigan, USA,ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 10 2008Matthew J. Zwiernik Abstract Historically, sediments and floodplain soils of the Tittabawassee River (TR; MI, USA) have been contaminated with polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins (PCDDs), and polychlorinatedbiphenyls (PCBs). Median concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin equivalents (TEQs) based on 2006 World Health Organization tetrachloro-dibenzo- p -dioxin toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) in the diet of mink (Mustela vison) ranged from 6.8 × 10,1 ng TEQ/kg wet weight upstream of the primary source of PCDF to 3.1 × 101 ng TEQ/kg wet weight downstream. Estimates of toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived from laboratory studies with individual PCDDs/PCDFs and PCB congeners or mixtures of those congeners, as well as application of TEFs, were compared to site-specific measures of mink exposure. Hazard quotients based on exposures expressed as concentrations of TEQs in the 95th percentile of the mink diet or liver and the no-observable-adverse-effect TRVs were determined to be 1.7 and 8.6, respectively. The resident mink survey, however, including number of mink present, morphological measures, sex ratios, population age structure, and gross and histological tissue examination, indicated no observable adverse effects. This resulted for multiple reasons: First, the exposure estimate was conservative, and second, the predominantly PCDF congener mixture present in the TR appeared to be less potent than predicted from TEQs based on dose,response comparisons. Given this, there appears to be great uncertainty in comparing the measured concentrations of TEQs at this site to TRVs derived from different congeners or congener mixtures. Based on the lack of negative outcomes for any measurement endpoints examined, including jaw lesions, a sentinel indicator of possible adverse effects, and direct measures of effects on individual mink and their population, it was concluded that current concentrations of PCDDs/PCDFs were not causing adverse effects on resident mink of the TR. [source] Climate predictability and breeding phenology in red deer: timing and synchrony of rutting and calving in Norway and FranceJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2005L. E. LOE Summary 1Timing and synchrony of reproduction are regarded as crucially important factors for fitness in seasonal environments. Natural selection has probably favoured temperate and arctic female herbivores that match reproduction with onset of plant growth in spring. However, breeding synchrony may also be affected by variation in phenotypic quality of females in a population, because females in poor body condition have been found to delay ovulation and subsequent calving. 2We compared breeding phenology, i.e. the timing and synchrony of rutting (roaring, sexual aggregation) and calving of red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) in France (latitude: 49°N) and Norway (latitude: 63°N). We hypothesized (H1) that calving and rutting were later at the site with latest onset of plant growth. 3We further quantified overall environmental predictability as the sum of annual constancy and seasonality and tested three different (not mutually exclusive) hypotheses about breeding synchrony: (H2a) the population experiencing most seasonal plant phenology should show the highest breeding synchrony; (H2b) overall predictability of plant phenology should determine breeding synchrony; and (H2c) breeding should be more synchronized in the population with lowest female body weight variation within age classes because they ovulate more synchronously. 4Calving and rutting, as well as onset of plant phenology, were later in Norway than in France, complying with the first hypothesis. Plant growth in spring was overall more predictable and also more seasonal in Norway than France. Hence we expected higher breeding synchrony in Norway than in France according to H2a and H2b. Variance in female body weight was slightly higher in France than in Norway, which should also cause more synchronized breeding in Norway than in France (H2c). Contrary to all predictions, variance in rutting and calving dates was around two times higher in Norway than in France. 5We suggest two alternative explanations of breeding synchrony. A more variable topography in Norway can make optimal birth date more variable on a local scale than in France, thereby maintaining a higher genetic variance for calving date in Norwegian red deer. Further, population age structure may play a role, as ovulation varies according to female age. Clearly, processes of breeding synchrony are far more complex than previously realized. [source] Simulation of the population dynamics and social structure of the Virunga mountain gorillasAMERICAN JOURNAL OF PRIMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2004Martha M. Robbins Abstract An agent-based model was developed to simulate the growth rate, age structure, and social system of the endangered mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) in the Virunga Volcanoes region. The model was used to compare two types of data: 1) estimates of the overall population size, age structure, and social structure, as measured by six censuses of the entire region that were conducted in 1971,2000; and 2) information about birth rates, mortality rates, dispersal patterns, and other life history events, as measured from three to five habituated research groups since 1967. On the basis of the research-group data, the "base simulation" predicted a higher growth rate than that observed from the census data (3% vs. 1%). This was as expected, because the research groups have indeed grown faster than the overall population. Additional simulations suggested that the research groups primarily have a lower mortality rate, rather than higher birth rates, compared to the overall population. Predictions from the base simulation generally fell within the range of census values for the average group size, the percentage of multimale groups, and the distribution of females among groups. However, other discrepancies predicted from the research-group data were a higher percentage of adult males than observed, an overestimation of the number of multimale groups with more than two silverbacks, and an overestimated number of groups with only two or three members. Possible causes for such discrepancies include inaccuracies in the census techniques used, and/or limitations with the long-term demographic data set obtained from only a few research groups of a long-lived species. In particular, estimates of mortality and male dispersal obtained from the research groups may not be representative of the entire population. Our final simulation addressed these discrepancies, and provided a better basis for further studies on the complex relationships among individual life history events, group composition, population age structure, and growth rate patterns. Am. J. Primatol. 63:201,223, 2004. © 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] The burden of coronary heart disease in M,ori: population-based estimates for 2000-02AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, Issue 4 2009Martin Tobias Abstract Objective: To estimate coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence, prevalence, survival, case fatality and mortality for M,ori, in order to support service planning and resource allocation. Methods: Incidence was defined as first occurrence of a major coronary event, i.e. the sum of first CHD hospital admissions and out-of-hospital CHD deaths in people without a hospital admission for CHD in the preceding five years. Data for the years 2000-02 were sourced from the New Zealand Health Information Service and record linkage was carried out using a unique national identifier, the national health index. Results: Compared to the non-M,ori population, M,ori had both elevated CHD incidence and higher case fatality. Median age at onset of CHD was younger for M,ori, reflecting both higher age specific risks and younger population age structure. The lifetable risk of CHD for M,ori was estimated at 37% (males) and 34% (females), only moderately higher than the corresponding estimates for the non-M,ori population, despite higher M,ori CHD incidence. This reflects the offsetting effect of the higher ,other cause' mortality experienced by M,ori. Median duration of survival with CHD was similar to that of the non-M,ori population for M,ori males but longer for M,ori females, which is most likely related to the earlier age of onset. Conclusions: This study has generated consistent estimates of CHD incidence, prevalence, survival, case fatality and mortality for M,ori in 2000-02. The inequality identified in CHD incidence calls for a renewed effort in primary prevention. The inequality in CHD case fatality calls for improvement in access for M,ori to secondary care services. [source] | ||||||||||