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Polls
Kinds of Polls Terms modified by Polls Selected AbstractsSynergistic interaction of physcion and chrysophanol on plant powdery mildewPEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (FORMERLY: PESTICIDE SCIENCE), Issue 5 2007Xiaojun Yang Abstract The extract of the plant Rheum officinale Baill, mainly containing the anthraquinones physcion and chrysophanol, is highly active against plant powdery mildew. Experiments were conducted in the laboratory and greenhouse to determine the interaction of the two compounds on cucumber powdery mildew [Sphaerotheca fuliginea (Schlecht.) Poll] and on wheat powdery mildew [Blumeria graminis (DC.) Speer f. sp. tritici Marchal]. Physcion was much more bioactive than chrysophanol against these powdery mildews. There was a significant synergistic interaction between the two compounds on the diseases when the ratios of physcion to chrysophanol ranged from 1:9 to 5:5. The synergistic degree increased with increase in the chrysophanol proportion in the combination. The findings indicate that, in order to ensure constant efficacy of the extract on the disease, both the contents and the proportion of the main active ingredients physcion and chrysophanol have to be determined. Copyright © 2007 Society of Chemical Industry [source] Mechanisms influencing the evolution of resistance to Qo inhibitor fungicides,,PEST MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (FORMERLY: PESTICIDE SCIENCE), Issue 9 2002Ulrich Gisi Abstract Fungicides inhibiting the mitochondrial respiration of plant pathogens by binding to the cytochrome bc1 enzyme complex (complex III) at the Qo site (Qo inhibitors, QoIs) were first introduced to the market in 1996. After a short time period, isolates resistant to QoIs were detected in field populations of a range of important plant pathogens including Blumeria graminis Speer f sp tritici, Sphaerotheca fuliginea (Schlecht ex Fr) Poll, Plasmopara viticola (Berk & MA Curtis ex de Bary) Berl & de Toni, Pseudoperonospora cubensis (Berk & MA Curtis) Rost, Mycosphaerella fijiensis Morelet and Venturia inaequalis (Cooke) Wint. In most cases, resistance was conferred by a point mutation in the mitochondrial cytochrome b (cyt b) gene leading to an amino-acid change from glycine to alanine at position 143 (G143A), although additional mutations and mechanisms have been claimed in a number of organisms. Transformation of sensitive protoplasts of M fijiensis with a DNA fragment of a resistant M fijiensis isolate containing the mutation yielded fully resistant transformants, demonstrating that the G143A substitution may be the most powerful transversion in the cyt b gene conferring resistance. The G143A substitution is claimed not to affect the activity of the enzyme, suggesting that resistant individuals may not suffer from a significant fitness penalty, as was demonstrated in B graminis f sp tritici. It is not known whether this observation applies also for other pathogen species expressing the G143A substitution. Since fungal cells contain a large number of mitochondria, early mitotic events in the evolution of resistance to QoIs have to be considered, such as mutation frequency (claimed to be higher in mitochondrial than nuclear DNA), intracellular proliferation of mitochondria in the heteroplasmatic cell stage, and cell to cell donation of mutated mitochondria. Since the cyt b gene is located in the mitochondrial genome, inheritance of resistance in filamentous fungi is expected to be non-Mendelian and, therefore, in most species uniparental. In the isogamous fungus B graminis f sp tritici, crosses of sensitive and resistant parents yielded cleistothecia containing either sensitive or resistant ascospores and the segregation pattern for resistance in the F1 progeny population was 1:1. In the anisogamous fungus V inaequalis, donation of resistance was maternal and the segregation ratio 1:0. In random mating populations, the sex ratio (mating type distribution) is generally assumed to be 1:1. Therefore, the overall proportion of sensitive and resistant individuals in unselected populations is expected to be 1:1. Evolution of resistance to QoIs will depend mainly on early mitotic events; the selection process for resistant mutants in populations exposed to QoI treatments may follow mechanisms similar to those described for resistance controlled by single nuclear genes in other fungicide classes. It will remain important to understand how the mitochondrial nature of QoI resistance and factors such as mutation, recombination, selection and migration might influence the evolution of QoI resistance in different plant pathogens. © 2002 Society of Chemical Industry [source] Poll Driven Government: A Review of Public Administration in 2001AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION, Issue 1 2002Narelle Miragliotta The approach of the Howard Coalition government to public administration in 2001 was consistent with the conventional wisdom that governments typically ,play it safe' in an election year. The government's preoccupation with winning a third term in office was a significant determinant of the policy responses of the government on a number of key issues. The events of 2001 serve as a vivid reminder that policy considerations are ultimately subject to the dictates of the electoral cycle. This is the sixth administrative essay publsihed in the journal since the editors resumed the administrative chronicles in 1996. Earlier administrative essays include J Stewart 55(1) 196; S Prasser 56(1) 1997; J Homeshaw 57(3) 1998; J Moon 58(2) 1999; C Broughton and J Chalmers 60(1) 2000. [source] Erfordernisse und Grenzen staatlicher Risikoübernahme in der MarktwirtschaftPERSPEKTIVEN DER WIRTSCHAFTSPOLITIK, Issue 4 2005Georg Milbradt Firstly, we shall explore to what extent the state should cover private risks through its social security system. Secondly, we discuss the situation in Germany, with special regard to the question whether Germany's current economic problems , stagnation and high unemployment , are caused by the growth of benefits provided by Social Security and the pay-as-you-go funding method. Thirdly, we look at risk coverage from the perspective of political economics. Polls show that the Germans increasingly mistrust the market mechanism. How, then, can the state reduce its coverage of individual risks and harness market forces instead of providing a minimum of social security? [source] Changing Public Opinion on Same-Sex Marriage: The Case of CaliforniaPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 1 2008Gregory B. Lewis Though public opposition to same-sex marriage seems reasonably stable nationally, support in California has grown substantially in the past two decades. Using data from six Field Polls of Californians since 1985, we explore the roots of that growth in individual attitude change and population changes. Cohort replacement can explain half the growth. Although all groups of Californians say that they have become more accepting of homosexual relations since they turned 18, the pattern is strongest for liberals, Democrats, and the less religious. These groups have also become much more supportive of same-sex marriage, while conservatives, Republicans, Protestants, and African-Americans appear at least as opposed today as they were two decades ago. [source] Polls and Elections: Opinion Formation, Polarization, and Presidential ReelectionPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 3 2009BARRY C. BURDEN The authors examine the dynamics of public opinion formation and change around a sitting president and their implications for reelection contests. Because of the biases inherent in information processing and the information environment, two distinct, but simultaneous, effects of citizen learning during a presidential term are expected. For those with prior opinions of the president, learning contributes to more polarized evaluations of the president. For those initially uncertain about the president, learning contributes to opinion formation about the president. Because the gap in uncertainty generally favors the incumbent over a lesser-known challenger, races with an incumbent presidential candidate are typically marked, perhaps paradoxically, by both a polarization of public opinion and an incumbency advantage. [source] Polls and Elections: Dixie's Kingmakers: Stability and Change in Southern Presidential Primary ElectoratesPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2009SETH C. MCKEE Recent presidential primaries have taken place against the backdrop of a secular realignment in the South, a shift that carries important consequences for nomination politics. In this article, we use statewide exit polls to trace changes between 1988 and 2008 in the Southern Democratic and Republican primary electorates. We find that the Democratic electorate has grown strikingly more liberal, more racially diverse, and less heavily Protestant over the last 20 years. Meanwhile, the Republican Party has solidified into a conservative, almost exclusively white primary electorate. We also identify a growing partisan gender gap in the region. The findings suggest that it will be increasingly difficult for a centrist white Democrat, such as Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton, to use the South as a launching pad to the nomination. In addition, the growing polarization of the parties' Southern primary electorates will likely continue to widen the ideological distance between the major presidential nominees. [source] Polls and Elections: Editorial Cartoons 2.0: The Effects of Digital Political Satire on Presidential Candidate EvaluationsPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 4 2008JODY C. BAUMGARTNER While the number of full-time editorial cartoonists has declined in the past few decades, several have taken their craft online in the form of animated Flash cartoons. In this article I test the effects of one of the more popular animated editorial cartoons on presidential candidate evaluations of 18- to 24-year-olds. A posttest-only experimental design was used to survey students from several universities in six states. The results from this online experiment suggest that these editorial cartoons have a negative effect on candidate evaluations. However, viewing the clip did not change candidate preferences and an analysis of the control group suggests that viewership of online humor may have a positive effect on political participation. [source] Polls, Elite Opinion, and the President: How Information and Issue Saliency Affect ApprovalPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 4 2006MICHAEL R. WOLF Our experiment examines the effect of information and issue saliency on presidential approval. Subjects received either pro-Bush or anti-Bush information on the president's Iraq War and Social Security policies in the form of newspaper opinion pieces and/or polls, and then evaluated Bush's overall job performance and his handling of these two issues. Information and polls that supported Bush's Social Security policy led subjects to support Bush on this issue, but attitudes were resistant on the more salient Iraq issue. The experiment demonstrates that poll results, more than simply reflecting aggregate opinion, influence attitudes on less salient issues. [source] Public Opinion Polls, Voter Turnout, and Welfare: An Experimental StudyAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2010Jens Großer We experimentally study the impact of public opinion poll releases on voter turnout and welfare in a participation game. We find higher overall turnout rates when polls inform the electorate about the levels of support for the candidates than when polls are prohibited. Distinguishing between allied and floating voters, our data show that this increase in turnout is entirely due to floating voters. When polls indicate equal levels of support for the candidates, turnout is high and welfare is low (compared to the situation without polls). In contrast, when polls reveal more unequal levels of support, turnout is lower with than without this information, while the effect of polls on welfare is nonnegative. Finally, many of our results are well predicted by quantal response (logit) equilibrium. [source] Governing with the PollsTHE HISTORIAN, Issue 2 2010Amy Fried First page of article [source] WEEKDAY-ONLY POLLING AND PARTISAN SUPPORT LEVELS: EVIDENCE FROM NEW ZEALANDAUSTRALIAN & NEW ZEALAND JOURNAL OF STATISTICS, Issue 1 2009Rob Salmond Summary Some scholars have argued that opinion polls conducted only on weekday evenings are likely to be biased in favour of right-wing parties, but there is no scholarly consensus on this. This paper presents evidence from New Zealand suggesting that weekday-only polling consistently increases the reported support levels for right-wing parties. Polls conducted only on weekdays in New Zealand give estimated support levels for the major right-leaning party approximately five percentage points higher than do concurrent polls that survey voters both on weekdays and during the weekend. Results for left-leaning parties are also broadly consistent with this effect. [source] Teaching and assessment of Professional attitudes in UK dental schools , CommentaryEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF DENTAL EDUCATION, Issue 3 2010J. Field Abstract The General Dental Council expects professionalism to be embedded and assessed through-out the undergraduate dental programme. Curricula need therefore to accommodate these recommendations. A stroll poll of UK dental schools provided a basis for understanding the current methods of teaching and assessing professionalism. All respondent schools recognised the importance of professionalism and reported that this was taught and assessed within their curriculum. For most the methods involved were largely traditional, relying on lectures and seminars taught throughout the course. The most common form of assessment was by grading and providing formative feedback after a clinical encounter. Whilst clinical skills and knowledge can perhaps be readily taught and assessed using traditional methods, those involved in education are challenged to identify and implement effective methods of not only teaching, but also assessing professionalism. A variety of standalone methods need to be developed that assess professionalism and this will, in turn, allow the effectiveness of teaching methods to be assessed. [source] Electoral behaviour in a two-vote system: Incentives for ticket splitting in German Bundestag electionsEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, Issue 2 2002Franz Urban Pappi The ballot structure of German Bundestag elections allows two votes: one for a constituency candidate and the second for a party list. About one-fifth of the voters usually split their ticket. Several hypotheses are derived about incentives for ticket splitting and tested with survey data from a 1998 pre-election poll. We argue that an explanation of split tickets in the German system has to take into account both party rankings and coalition preferences. One of the most important incentives is a preference or top ranking of a minor party like the FDP or Greens, if it is combined with a preference for a coalition with either the CDU/CSU or SPD. Contrary to this finding, the hypothesis of threshold insurance voting of CDU/CSU or SPD supporters choosing the party list of their prospective minor coalition partner is rejected for the 1998 election. [source] The Impact of Public School Attributes on Home Sale Prices in CaliforniaGROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 3 2000David E. Clark The quality of public schools is often cited as an important attribute which distinguishes a community. Indeed, a recent public opinion poll conducted by the California Public Education Partnership indicates that residents rank improvements in public education higher than such high profile issues as environmental quality and crime reduction. In order to explore the role of educational quality in determining residential property values, a hedonic housing price model is used on a large sample of homes which sold within Fresno County in California over the period 1990-1994. After controlling for a wide range of housing characteristics and neighborhood features, the findings indicate that the school district does significantly influence the real sale price. Then the relative importance of inputs into the production of educational services is investigated as compared to output measures of productivity. These findings suggest that both input and output measures are important. However, elasticity estimates of input measures tend to be higher than those of output measures, with the average class size by far the strongest influence. There is some evidence to suggest that the benefits of additional teachers likely outweigh the costs. Finally, the findings suggest that attributes of schools are more highly valued by local residents than either crime or environmental quality measures within the community. [source] Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion pollJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 6 2002Christopher Monterola Abstract The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern-recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Sensitive skin in EuropeJOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ACADEMY OF DERMATOLOGY & VENEREOLOGY, Issue 4 2009L Misery Abstract Introduction, Sensitive skin appears as a very frequent condition, but there is no comparative data between countries. Objectives, To perform an epidemiological approach to skin sensitivity in different European countries. Methods, An opinion poll was conducted in eight European countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland. This sample (4506 persons) was drawn from a representative sample of each population aged 15 years or older. Results, Sensitive or very sensitive skin was declared by 38.4% and slightly or not sensitive skin by 61.6%. Women declared more sensitive skin than men. A dermatological disease was declared by 31.2% of people with very sensitive skin, 17.6% of those with sensitive skin, 8.7% of those with slightly sensitive skin and 3.7% of those who do not have sensitive skin. A history of childhood atopic dermatitis was more frequent in patients with sensitive or very sensitive skin. The interviewees who declared that they had dry or oily skin also reported significantly more frequently sensitive or very sensitive skin than those with normal skin. Sensitive and very sensitive skins were clearly more frequent in Italy and France. Discussion, This study is the first study that compares skin sensitivity in European countries. Prevalence is high, but significant differences are noted between these countries. Dermatological antecedents (or treatments?) could be involved in the occurrence of skin sensitivity. Conflicts of interest None declared [source] Getting it right on the night, again,the 2010 UK general election exit pollJOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 4 2010Stephen D. Fisher No abstract is available for this article. [source] Exit polling in a cold climate: the BBC,ITV experience in Britain in 2005JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 3 2008John Curtice Summary., Conducting an exit poll to forecast the outcome of a national election in terms of both votes and seats is particularly difficult in Britain. No official information is available on how individual polling stations voted in the past, use of single-member plurality means that there is no consistent relationship between votes and seats, electors can choose to vote by post and most of those who vote in person do so late in the day. In addition, around one in every six intended exit poll respondents refuses to participate. Methods that were developed to overcome these problems, and their use in the successful 2005 British Broadcasting Corporation,Independent Television exit poll, are described and evaluated. The methodology included a panel design to allow the estimation of electoral change at local level, coherent multiple-regression modelling of multiparty electoral change to capture systematic patterns of variation, probabilistic prediction of constituency winners to account for uncertainty in projected constituency level shares, collection of information about the voting intentions of postal voters before polling day and access to interviewer guesses on the voting behaviour of refusals. The coverage and accuracy of the exit poll data are critically examined, the effect of key aspects of the statistical modelling of the data is assessed and some general lessons are drawn for the design and analysis of electoral exit polls. [source] Climate Policy Beyond Kyoto: Quo Vadis?KYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 4 2005A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Based on Expert Judgments Summary We investigate the possible future of Post-Kyoto climate policies until 2020. Based on a cross-impact analysis, we first evaluate an expert poll to identify the most likely Post-Kyoto climate policy scenarios. We then use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the economic implications of these scenarios. We find that Post-Kyoto agreements will include only small reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions, with abatement duties predominantly assigned to the industrialized countries, while developing countries remain uncommitted, but can sell emission abatement to the industrialized world. Equity rules to allocate abatement duties are mainly based on sovereignty or ability-to-pay. Global adjustment costs to Post-Kyoto policies are very moderate, but regional costs to fuel exporting countries can be substantial because of distinct terms-of-trade effects on fossil fuel markets. [source] Using Affective Attitudes to Identify Christian Fundamentalism: The Ten Commandments Judge and Alabama PoliticsPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 5 2010THOMAS SHAW This article develops a new and useful indicator to aid in identifying Christian fundamentalism. "Affect" measures individuals' affective attitudes toward the role of Christian fundamentalists in Alabama politics. We demonstrate the analytic utility of this indicator by quantitatively comparing it to other more traditional and direct measures of fundamentalism, such as belief in the Bible as the literal word of God, self-identification as a fundamentalist, and whether one considers oneself to be "born again." We then compare the utility of these different measures of Christian fundamentalism in explaining electoral support for the archetype Christian fundamentalist political candidate, the "Ten Commandments Judge" Roy Moore, former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. We find that our affect indicator compares well to other measures of fundamentalism and actually outperforms all of the more traditional measures in explaining support for Moore. Data used in the analysis come from a public opinion poll conducted by the USA Polling Group in April 2006. Este artículo desarrolla un nuevo y útil indicador para ayudar a identificar el fundamentalismo cristiano. "Afecto" mide las actitudes afectivas de los individuos hacia el rol de los cristianos fundamentalistas en la política de Alabama. Demostramos la utilidad analítica de este indicador al compararlo cuantitativamente con otras medidas más tradicionales y directas del fundamentalismo, tales como la creencia de la Biblia como la palabra literal de Dios, auto-identificación como fundamentalista, y si uno se considera a uno mismo "nacido de nuevo." Después comparamos la utilidad de estas diferentes medidas del fundamentalismo cristiano para explicar el apoyo electoral al candidato político cristiano fundamentalista arquetípico: Roy Moore, "Juez de los Diez Mandamientos," ex-presidente del tribunal de la Corte Suprema de Alabama. Encontramos que nuestro indicador Afecto se equipara con otras medidas del fundamentalismo y en realidad supera a todas las más tradicionales mediciones que explican el apoyo a Moore. La información utilizada en el análisis proviene de una encuesta de opinión pública realizada por el USA Polling Group en Abril del 2006. [source] The Political Fallout of Taking a Stand: The President, Congress, and the Schiavo CasePRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 3 2007DONALD P. HAIDER-MARKEL Federal government involvement in the case of terminally ill Terri Schiavo provides an interesting opportunity to explore the potential impact of specific institutional actions on public approval of those institutions. We analyze national survey data from the period of federal intervention and a poll conducted several months later. Our analyses, which account for time and exposure to political news, suggest that presidential and congressional actions in the case were associated with a decline in approval for the president and congressional leaders. Thus, the president and Congress can pay a political price when they take high-profile actions a significant majority of the public opposes. [source] Polls, Elite Opinion, and the President: How Information and Issue Saliency Affect ApprovalPRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 4 2006MICHAEL R. WOLF Our experiment examines the effect of information and issue saliency on presidential approval. Subjects received either pro-Bush or anti-Bush information on the president's Iraq War and Social Security policies in the form of newspaper opinion pieces and/or polls, and then evaluated Bush's overall job performance and his handling of these two issues. Information and polls that supported Bush's Social Security policy led subjects to support Bush on this issue, but attitudes were resistant on the more salient Iraq issue. The experiment demonstrates that poll results, more than simply reflecting aggregate opinion, influence attitudes on less salient issues. [source] The Money Primary: What Influences the Outcome of Pre-Primary Presidential Nomination Fundraising?PRESIDENTIAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Issue 2 2002Randall E. Adkins Since 1980, the positive influence of candidate performance and campaign organization explains much of the variation in fundraising during the pre-primary season. Candidate performance is measured by national poll results, change in candidate viability, and length of candidacy. Campaign organization includes the amount of money the candidate's campaign spent on fundraising, size of the candidate's electoral constituency, and whether the candidate self-financed his campaign. Using three ordinary least square recession models (for Democrats, Republicans, and combined), the authors examine the effects of these variables on pre-primary fundraising from 1980 to 2000 where the incumbent president did not sit for reelection. In the combined model national poll results, change in candidate viability, fundraising expenditures, and self-financing significantly affect fundraising during the money primary. Partisan models suggest that while Republicans benefit more from earlier national poll results, Democrats profit from changes in viability during the course of the pre-primary season. [source] Americans' Views of Health Care Costs, Access, and QualityTHE MILBANK QUARTERLY, Issue 4 2006ROBERT J. BLENDON For more than two decades, polls have shown that Americans are dissatisfied with their current health care system. However, the public's views on how to change the current system are more conflicted than often suggested by individual poll results. At the same time, Americans are both dissatisfied with the current health care system and relatively satisfied with their own health care arrangements. As a result of the conflict between these views and the public's distrust of government, there often is a wide gap between the public's support for a set of principles concerning what needs to be done about the overall problems facing the nation's health care system and their support for specific policies designed to achieve those goals. [source] EXECUTING THE INNOCENT AND SUPPORT FOR CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC POLICYCRIMINOLOGY AND PUBLIC POLICY, Issue 1 2005JAMES D. UNNEVER Research Summary: The issue of whether innocent people have been executed is now at the center of the debate concerning the legitimacy of capital punishment. The purpose of this research was to use data collected by the Gallup Organization in 2003 to investigate whether Americans who believed that an innocent person had been executed were less likely to support capital punishment. We also explored whether the association varied by race, given that African Americans are disproportionately affected by the death penalty. Our results indicated that three-quarters of Americans believed that an innocent person had been executed for a crime they did not commit within the last five years and that this belief was associated with lower levels of support for capital punishment, especially among those who thought this sanction was applied unfairly. In addition, our analyses revealed that believing an innocent person had been executed had a stronger association with altering African American than white support for the death penalty. Policy Implications: A key claim of death penalty advocates is that a high proportion of the public supports capital punishment. In this context, scholars opposing this sanction have understood the importance of showing that the public's support for executing offenders is contingent and shallower than portrayed by typical opinion polls. The current research joins this effort by arguing that the prospect of executing innocents potentially impacts public support for the death penalty and, in the least, creates ideological space for a reconsideration of the legitimacy of capital punishment. [source] Should I stay or should I go?EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, Issue 5 2008An experimental study on voter responses to pre-electoral coalitions Party elites, however, do not know how voters will respond to the coalition formation at the polls. In this article, the authors report on an experimental study among 1,255 Belgian students. In order to study voter responses to the formation of PECs, respondents were presented with two ballots: one with individual parties (party vote condition) and one with coalitions (coalition vote condition). The aim of this experiment is to predict under what conditions party supporters will follow their initially preferred party into the coalition and vote for the PEC, and under what conditions they would desert the PEC at the polls. The decision whether to follow the coalition or not can be traced back to four considerations: dislike of the coalition partner; ideological congruence between coalition partners; size of the initially preferred party; and being attracted to a specific high-profile candidate. (Dis)liking the coalition partner is independent from the ideological congruence between the two coalition partners. The study's results also show support for an adjustment effect, as respondents became more loyal toward cartels over the course of the 2003,2005 observation period. [source] Europe in the Political ImaginationJCMS: JOURNAL OF COMMON MARKET STUDIES, Issue 4 2010JONATHAN WHITE Perceptions of the EU tend to be studied by examining responses to targeted opinion polls. This paper looks instead at how citizens draw Europe into a wider discussion of politics and political problems. Based on a series of group discussions with taxi-drivers in Britain, Germany and the Czech Republic, it examines the motifs speakers use to explain the origins of problems, the assumptions they make about their susceptibility to address, and how, when these patterned ways of speaking are applied to the EU, they serve to undermine its credibility as a positive source of political agency. [source] Long-range dependence in Spanish political opinion poll seriesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 2 2003Juan J. Dolado This paper investigates the time series properties of partisanship for five political parties in Spain. It is found that pure fractional processes with a degree of integration, d, between 0.6 and 0.8 fit the time-series behaviour of aggregate opinion polls for mainstream parties quite well, whereas values of d in the range of 0.3 to 0.6 are obtained for opinion polls related to smaller regional parties. Those results are in agreement with theories of political allegiance based on aggregation of heterogeneous voters with different degrees of commitment and pragmatism. Further, those models are found to be useful in forecasting the results of the last general elections in Spain. As a further contribution, new econometric techniques for estimation and testing of ARFIMA model are used to provide the previous evidence. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The evolution of a campaign: tracking press coverage and party press releases through the 2001 UK General ElectionJOURNAL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS, Issue 2 2005Phil Harris This paper builds upon a content analysis of all news articles that appeared in six national daily newspapers and of all national press releases issued by the three main political parties during the UK General Election 2001 campaign. The results were compared with data from two opinion polls conducted at the start and at the end of the campaign. Here, using the same basic data, we track the coverage of issues in party press releases and daily newspapers on a weekly basis to determine how the parties' priorities and press coverage evolved. The results show that the Labour and Liberal Democrat campaign strategies, in terms of relative issue priorities, did not change during the campaign. However, the Conservatives shifted their attention to the public priorities of Health and Education towards the end of the campaign. There is evidence that the Conservative emphasis on Europe and taxation earlier in the campaign may have influenced the volume of press coverage but did not appear to have affected relative party standings. The implications of these results for political marketers are considered. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||