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Political Instability (political + instability)
Selected AbstractsThe Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of GreeceECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2000Dimitrios Asteriou This article examines empirically the relationship between stock market development, political instability and economic growth in Greece. We measure socio-political instability by constructing an index which captures the occurrence of various phenomena of political violence using time-series data. The main advantages of analysing political instability in a case study framework using time-series, in contrast with the widely used cross-country empirical studies, are: (a) a more careful and in-depth examination of institutional and historical characteristics of a particular country; (b) the use of a data set comprised of the most appropriate and highest quality measures; and (c) a more detailed exposition of the dynamic evolution of the economy. The empirical results indicate the existence of a strong negative relationship between uncertain socio-political conditions and the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) and support the theoretical hypothesis that uncertain socio-political conditions affect economic growth negatively, is true for the Greek case. (J.E.L.: G10, G14, O40, C32) [source] Aggregate Investment and Political Instability: An Econometric InvestigationECONOMICA, Issue 279 2003Nauro F. Campos Although in theory the long-run effect of uncertainty on investment is ambiguous, available econometric evidence widely supports a negative association between aggregate investment and political instability. A shortcoming of this body of evidence is that it has failed to investigate the existence and direction of causality between these two variables. This paper fills this gap by testing for such causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability and investment. We find there is a causal relation going from instability to investment, but it is positive and particularly strong in low-income countries. This finding is robust to various sensitivity checks. [source] Taming the Tiger: Voting Rights and Political Instability in Latin AmericaLATIN AMERICAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY, Issue 2 2004Josep M. Colomer ABSTRACT This article discusses the relationship between certain institutional regulations of voting rights and elections, different levels of electoral participation, and the degree of political instability in several Latin American political experiences. A formal model specifies the hypotheses that sudden enlargements of the electorate may provoke high levels of political instability, especially under plurality and other restrictive electoral rules, while gradual enlargements of the electorate may prevent much electoral and political innovation and help stability. Empirical data illustrate these hypotheses. A historical survey identifies different patterns of political instability and stability in different countries and periods, which can be compared with the adoption of different voting rights regulations and electoral rules either encouraging or depressing turnout. [source] A Global Model for Forecasting Political InstabilityAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2010Jack A. Goldstone Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability. [source] African elephants: the effect of property rights and political stabilityCONTEMPORARY ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 1 2000MA. McPherson African elephant populations have declined by more than 50% over the past 20 years. International outrage over the slaughter led to a worldwide ban on ivory sales beginning in 1989, despite the objections of many economists and scientists, and of several southern African countries that have established systems of property rights over elephants. Far from declining, elephant populations in many of these countries have increased to levels at or above the carrying capacity of the ecosystem. This article estimates the determinants of changes in elephant populations in 35 African countries over several time periods. The authors find that, controlling for other factors, countries with property rights systems of community wildlife programs have more rapid elephant population growth rates than do those countries that do not. Political instability and the absence of representative governments significantly lower elephant growth rates. [source] Foreign Direct Investment in the CaribbeanDEVELOPMENT POLICY REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Ivar Kolstad This article addresses the question of whether the Caribbean is particularly attractive or unattractive to foreign investors, and if it has specific characteristics that attract or deter FDI. An econometric analysis of data from 135 countries for 1980-2002 shows that the Caribbean does not suffer from low inflows of FDI; on the contrary, Caribbean countries receive more FDI than comparable countries in other regions. This reflects two contradictory effects. On the one hand, FDI inflows may be particularly sensitive to political instability in the region; on the other hand, the absence of regulation appears to have been a particularly beneficial factor in attracting FDI to the Caribbean. [source] State Capacity, Conflict, and DevelopmentECONOMETRICA, Issue 1 2010Timothy Besley The absence of state capacities to raise revenue and to support markets is a key factor in explaining the persistence of weak states. This paper reports on an ongoing project to investigate the incentive to invest in such capacities. The paper sets out a simple analytical structure in which state capacities are modeled as forward looking investments by government. The approach highlights some determinants of state building including the risk of external or internal conflict, the degree of political instability, and dependence on natural resources. Throughout, we link these state capacity investments to patterns of development and growth. [source] The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of GreeceECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2000Dimitrios Asteriou This article examines empirically the relationship between stock market development, political instability and economic growth in Greece. We measure socio-political instability by constructing an index which captures the occurrence of various phenomena of political violence using time-series data. The main advantages of analysing political instability in a case study framework using time-series, in contrast with the widely used cross-country empirical studies, are: (a) a more careful and in-depth examination of institutional and historical characteristics of a particular country; (b) the use of a data set comprised of the most appropriate and highest quality measures; and (c) a more detailed exposition of the dynamic evolution of the economy. The empirical results indicate the existence of a strong negative relationship between uncertain socio-political conditions and the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) and support the theoretical hypothesis that uncertain socio-political conditions affect economic growth negatively, is true for the Greek case. (J.E.L.: G10, G14, O40, C32) [source] Aggregate Investment and Political Instability: An Econometric InvestigationECONOMICA, Issue 279 2003Nauro F. Campos Although in theory the long-run effect of uncertainty on investment is ambiguous, available econometric evidence widely supports a negative association between aggregate investment and political instability. A shortcoming of this body of evidence is that it has failed to investigate the existence and direction of causality between these two variables. This paper fills this gap by testing for such causal and negative long-run relationship between political instability and investment. We find there is a causal relation going from instability to investment, but it is positive and particularly strong in low-income countries. This finding is robust to various sensitivity checks. [source] SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF HYDROPOLITICS: THE GEOGRAPHICAL SCALES OF WATER AND SECURITY IN THE INDUS BASIN,GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2007Daanish Mustafa ABSTRACT. The article identifies important themes and future research directions for analyzing water and conflict dynamics at the subnational scale in the Indus Basin. A historical overview of water development in the Indus Basin suggests that the water-security nexus was always a salient theme in the minds of water developers, even in the nineteenth century. Conflicts over contemporary large-scale water-development projects in the Indian and Pakistani parts of the Indus Basin are reviewed. Engineers' single-minded focus on megaprojects, to the neglect of the wider set of values that societies attach to water resources in the eastern and western Indus Basin are largely to blame for continuing low-grade conflict in the basin. A review of local-level conflicts over water supply and sanitation in Karachi and the distribution of irrigation water in Pakistani Punjab illustrates the critical role of governance and differential social power relations in accentuating conflict. The article argues against neo-Malthusian assumptions about the inevitability of conflict over water because of its future absolute scarcity. Instead, the article seeks to demonstrate that, despite evidence suggesting that international armed conflict over water does not exist, the potential for political instability over domestic water distribution and development issues is real. The question of whether conflict at the subnational scale will culminate in violence will depend on how water-resources institutions in the basin behave. [source] THE ODYSSEY OF JAPANESE COLONISTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC,GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2000OSCAR H. HORST ABSTRACT. In an agreement formalized with the Japanese government in 1956, Generalissimo Rafael Leónidas Trujillo Molina of the Dominican Republic extended an offer of refuge for Japanese immigrants seeking to improve their fortunes in the late 1950s by taking up residence in Trujillo's vaunted "Paradise of the Caribbean." The provision of sites ultimately unfavorable for colonization, lack of infrastructure, failure of the Japanese government to address the complaints of the colonists, and political instability within the Dominican Republic led to the abandonment of five of the eight colonies. By 1962 only 276 of the 1,319 original colonists remained; the rest had either returned to Japan or sought refuge in South America. Although the fortunes of these Japanese families fell far short of their expectations, Trujillo could hardly have envisioned the contributions to Dominican society to be made by their descendants. The experiences of this relatively small number of migrants reflect the difficulties encountered when racial and geopolitical concerns take precedence over judicious plans for colonization. [source] Violence, Masculinity and Self: Killing in Joseph Roth's 1920s FictionGERMAN LIFE AND LETTERS, Issue 2 2000Jon Hughes This essay focuses upon a little considered aspect of Joseph Roth's 1920s fiction , the depiction of the act of killing. I argue that this act should be viewed as central in Roth's portrayal of the damaged psyche of young war veterans, whose strategies of self-denial and self-transformation have terrible consequences for themselves and others. With this in mind, I examine the actions and motives of the fascistic protagonist of Das Spinnennetz (1923), and the revolutionaries in Die Flucht ohne Ende (1927) and Rechts und Links (1929), in their historical and cultural context. The continuities between their actions reflect, I suggest, an awareness on Roth's part of the continuum of male psychology. Drawing on concepts from the work of such cultural critics as Theweleit, Foucault, and Lacan, I discuss the significance of military training, the experience of combat, and political instability in displacing the masculine ego and creating the necessary conditions for violence. The essay concludes by challenging the assumption that Roth only intended to criticise his explicitly fascistic character, for all the texts considered close with personal misery for their characters: inability to relate to others, and dislocation from society. [source] The Republics of Ideas: Venice, Florence and the Defence of Liberty, 1525,1530HISTORY, Issue 279 2000Stephen D. Bowd The sixteenth century has often been regarded as a crucial period in the history of political events in Italy, and in the history of political ideas. The contributions of Florence and Venice to this process have long been acknowledged. Florentine admiration for the Venetian political system reflected internal political instability in the former city. The evidence for Venetian-Florentine contacts, and for a Venetian concern or admiration for Florence has been less noted. This article aims to show that there is evidence that Venetian concern for the defence of republican liberty after 1525 was allied to an awareness of Florentine political events and their significance for Venetian political practices. This awareness was stimulated by the pressure of imperial intervention on the peninsula after 1525. Florence and Venice were allies under the treaty of Cognac, and diplomats in both cities articulated a concern for republican libertas in Italy and an antipathy towards imperial rule. The work of Gasparo Contarini can be placed in this context, and as a result the critical point in the development of his arguments about Venetian political stability can be placed in the 1520s rather than in the years around 1509. The politics and political ideas of both cities were therefore developed in a wider context than has hitherto been supposed. [source] Pubic symphyseal face eburnation: an Egyptian sport story?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OSTEOARCHAEOLOGY, Issue 3 2010M. A. Judd Abstract Strenuous physical activity leaves scars on bone that attest to the demands of occupation, sport, aggression and recreation. During the assessment of 74 C-Group Nubians from Hierakonpolis (Egypt) dated to the Egyptian Middle Kingdom,Second Intermediate Period (2080,1700 BC), robust muscle insertions along the ilia and ischia were observed among some adults. In addition, a disproportionate degeneration of the pubic symphyseal faces when compared to other age-related features was also noted. In the case of one male (Burial 32), the pubic symphyseal faces were completely flattened and polished so that they resembled the eburnation that is pathognomic of osteoarthritis. Differential diagnoses are discussed and osteitis pubis, an increasingly diagnosed injury among modern athletes who participate in intense activity that involves running, kicking, twisting or leaping, is proposed as the most likely etiology. The exaggerated muscle insertions and pubic symphyseal wear, epitomised by the individual interred in Burial 32, are unique features that may be linked to the unexplained presence of this Nubian group deep in Egyptian territory during a period of political instability. Artefactual, artistic and documentary evidence records how the Egyptian pharaohs and elites conscripted Nubian athletes to the royal courts for staged contests and entertainment, part of a propaganda program engineered to reinforce among the general populace the dogma of Egyptian supremacy over the enemy. This Nubian community, serviced by Cemetery HK27C, may have functioned as a source for individuals skilled in athletics or other activities that required exceptional physical dexterity. The extraordinary modification of these pubic symphyseal faces underscores the importance of recognising paleopathological conditions that may further confound current macroscopic methods used to ascertain the chronological age of an individual. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Confronting the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa: policy versus practiceINTERNATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE JOURNAL, Issue 186 2005Anita Hardon The paper shows how policies aimed at confronting HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa have shifted over the past 10 years. Initially, the focus was on prevention. Anti-retroviral treatments (ARVs), which could prolong the lives of people living with HIV and AIDS, were considered too expensive for the African poor. In 2000, following global campaigns to lower the prices of ARVs, and concern about the political instability caused by AIDS in Africa, policies started focusing on access to treatment. Cost-effectiveness arguments played a key role in the formulation and implementation of the prevention policies, while human rights and equity considerations drive the current treatment programmes. Though different in policy content, the prevention and treatment policies have in common that they pay little attention to the socio-cultural realities in sub-Saharan Africa that ultimately determine their success. Based on illustrative case material from Uganda, the paper calls for more research on and understanding of the successes and failures of prevention and treatment programmes. Such understanding can help adapt global policies to local realities. [source] Abandonment of farmland and vegetation succession following the Eurasian plague pandemic of ad 1347,52JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2007Dan Yeloff Abstract Aim, This paper reviews the available documentary, archaeological and palaeoecological evidence for the abandonment of agricultural land and consequent regeneration of the forest in Europe after the Black Death. Location, Western and northern Europe. Methods, This review is the result of an exhaustive search of the historical, archaeological and palaeoecological literature for evidence indicating agricultural decline and forest regeneration in Eurasia during the 14th century. The available evidence for landscape change can be divided into two categories: (1) documentary and archaeological sources, and (2) palaeoecological reconstructions of past vegetation. In the past few years, several pollen diagrams from north-west Europe have been reported with precise chronologies (decadal and even annual scale) showing the abandonment of farmland and consequent ecological change in the late medieval period. Results and main conclusions, There is strong evidence of agricultural continuity at several sites in Western Europe at the time of the Black Death. The effects of the Black Death on the European rural landscape varied geographically, with major factors probably including the impact of the plague on the local population, and soil quality. At two sites in western and northern Ireland, the late medieval decline in cereal agriculture was probably a direct result of population reduction following the Black Death. In contrast, the decline in cereal production began at sites in Britain and France before the Black Death pandemic of ad 1347,52, and was probably due to the crisis in the agricultural economy, exacerbated by political instability and climate deterioration. Much of the abandoned arable land was probably exploited for grazing during the period between the decline in cereal farming and the Black Death. In the aftermath of the Black Death, grazing pressure was greatly reduced owing to reductions in the grazing animal population and a shortage of farmers. Vegetation succession on the abandoned grazing land resulted in increased cover of woody tree species, particularly Betula and Corylus, by the late 14th century. The cover of woodland was greatest at c.ad 1400, before forest clearance and agriculture increased in intensity. [source] Censusing the mountain gorillas in the Virunga Volcanoes: complete sweep method versus monitoringAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Maryke Gray Abstract The mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) of the Virunga Volcanoes Range of Rwanda, Uganda, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are one of the most endangered ape populations in the world. Following a dramatic decline during the 1960s, and relative stability in the 1970s, the population steadily increased during the 1980s. Due to political instability and war, a complete census had not been conducted since 1989. Here we compare the results of a complete census using the ,sweep method' conducted in 2003 with those from a monitoring program, to estimate the size and distribution of the gorilla population. A total of 360 gorillas were counted from census measurements and known habituated groups. Based on quantitative assessments of the census accuracy, we calculated that an additional 20 gorillas were not counted, leading to an estimated population of 380 individuals, and a 1.15% annual growth rate since 1989. The Ranger Based Monitoring programme yielded similar results. The encouraging results must be viewed with caution, however, because the growth was concentrated almost entirely in one section of the Virungas. Additionally, the distribution of gorilla groups was negatively correlated with the frequency of human disturbances, which highlights the need to continue strengthening conservation efforts. Résumé Les gorilles de montagne Gorilla gorilla beringei de l'aire de répartition des Volcans Virunga, au Rwanda, en Ouganda et en République Démocratique du Congo, sont une des populations de grands singes les plus menacées du monde. Après un déclin dramatique dans le courant des années 1960, et une stabilité relative dans les années 1970, la population s'est fermement reconstituée au cours des années 1980. Mais en raison de l'instabilité politique et de la guerre, il n'y avait plus eu de recensement total depuis 1989. Nous comparons ici les résultats d'un recensement complet effectué en 2003 par la méthode du balayage topologique (sweep method) avec ceux d'un programme de suivi, afin d'estimer la taille et la distribution de la population de gorilles. Nous avons dénombré un total de 360 gorilles en reprenant les chiffres du recensement et ceux des groupes habitués connus. En nous basant sur l'évaluation quantitative de la précision du recensement, nous avons calculé que 20 gorilles supplémentaires n'avaient pas été comptés, ce qui porte l'estimation à 380 individus et signifie un taux de croissance annuel de 1,15% depuis 1989. Le Programme de Suivi basé sur les gardes a obtenu des résultats comparables. Pourtant, ces résultats encourageants doivent être interprétés avec prudence étant donné que la croissance s'est presque entièrement concentrée sur une seule section des Virunga. De plus, la distribution des groupes de gorilles était négativement liée à la fréquence des perturbations humaines, ce qui souligne la nécessité de poursuivre le renforcement des mesures de conservation. [source] An overview of environmental issues in Southern AfricaAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 2009Michael Bernard Kwesi Darkoh Abstract This paper provides an overview of some of the significant environmental problems in the Southern African region. The key problems highlighted are global warming and climate variability, loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification-land degradation, waste and littering, population growth, urbanization, pollution, poverty and health hazards. These problems present a challenge to governments and other players within and outside Southern Africa to seek for long-term solutions by addressing the root causes of these problems. The paper notes that although the environmental problems facing the Southern African region are being tackled at national, regional and international levels, there is more that can be done. At the national level, the different agencies and players, both within and outside government need to strengthen coordination and implementation of key interventions in different sectors in both rural and urban areas. At the African regional and international levels, there is a need to address geopolitical forces and issues that contribute to the underdevelopment of the African region. Among the major issues are poor terms of international trade, political instability, poverty, declining economic performance and international debt. [source] Flood-related disaster vulnerability: an impending crisis of megacities in AsiaJOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2010Y. Adikari Abstract The megacities around the world have been located in fertile river basins since the beginning of civilization. In recent years, population has been increasing drastically; as a result, people migrate to cities and live in vulnerable and marginal areas, thus giving rise to slums. Therefore, we would like to point out why and how megacities in Asia are vulnerable to flood. The vulnerability of the cities, especially the slums, is shaped by forces such as global changes, internal migration patterns, development practices and political instability, which constantly reshape the risk of floods, which may be frequent and disastrous. Hence, development choices with a strong scientific background, especially in the cities prone to monsoon, are necessary to protect development, and not only floods but all disaster risks should be regulated and mainstreamed into the development planning of cities. [source] Diversity and discord: Ethnicity, horizontal inequalities and conflict in Ghana and NigeriaJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 4 2009Arnim Langer Abstract This introduction provides an overview of the special issue. The papers in this issue contribute to our understanding of the contrasting histories of Ghana and Nigeria. The papers confirm the importance of horizontal inequalities as a source of political instability and violent conflict, and show that they are particularly likely to lead to conflict where political and socio-economic exclusion run in the same direction or are consistant. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Taming the Tiger: Voting Rights and Political Instability in Latin AmericaLATIN AMERICAN POLITICS AND SOCIETY, Issue 2 2004Josep M. Colomer ABSTRACT This article discusses the relationship between certain institutional regulations of voting rights and elections, different levels of electoral participation, and the degree of political instability in several Latin American political experiences. A formal model specifies the hypotheses that sudden enlargements of the electorate may provoke high levels of political instability, especially under plurality and other restrictive electoral rules, while gradual enlargements of the electorate may prevent much electoral and political innovation and help stability. Empirical data illustrate these hypotheses. A historical survey identifies different patterns of political instability and stability in different countries and periods, which can be compared with the adoption of different voting rights regulations and electoral rules either encouraging or depressing turnout. [source] Mapping Growth into Economic DevelopmentAMERICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND SOCIOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Has Elite Political Instability Mattered in Sub-Saharan Africa? The study finds that elite political instability (PI),the incidence of coups d'etat,has negatively influenced the mapping of GDP growth into economic development, measured as the algebraic difference in the United Nations Human Development Index, in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) between 1970 and 1985. Taking into account the additional adverse impact of PI on economic development through its deleterious influence on economic growth, the study estimates that PI has exacted a substantial toll in SSA's economic development. [source] Investment in Fixed Capital Stock: Testing for the Impact of Sectoral and Systemic Uncertainty*OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 2 2004Johannes Fedderke Abstract This paper applies current theory recognizing the irreversibility of investment, in order to test for the impact of uncertainty on investment expenditure for a middle income country. The contribution of the paper is unique in two respects. First, it employs dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques not previously applied to investment functions. Secondly, it explicitly tests for the impact of both sectoral and systemic uncertainty on investment expenditure. We find that both sectoral (as measured by output volatility) and systemic uncertainty (as measured by political instability) have a negative impact on investment rates in a middle income country context. Liquidity constraints and growth in total factor productivity are found to have no impact on investment, while trade liberalization has the impact predicted by Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory. Finally, we find complementarity effects between physical capital and skilled human capital, suggesting that South African educational policies may have hampered investment in physical capital as well as the growth performance of the economy. Policy implications emphasize the importance of lowering uncertainty for investors, and the need for sound human capital investment. [source] Persistence of growth stunting in a Peruvian high altitude community, 1964,1999AMERICAN JOURNAL OF HUMAN BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2010Ivan G. Pawson The growth of children living in Nuñoa, a Peruvian high-altitude community, was studied over a 35-year period using data collected in 1964 and 1999. There had been evidence of a secular trend in growth in the mid-1980s, but this was before a period of sociopolitical upheaval lasting until the late 1990s partly linked to the activities of the Shining Path group and the Peruvian government's response. Anthropometric data for 576 children examined in 1964,1966 were compared with data from 361 children examined in 1999. Data were converted to Z Scores using NCHS/WHO reference standards. Compared with the 1964 cohort, boys in 1999 had marginally greater height Z Scores, but among females, the trend was reversed. Stunting prevalence had decreased from 1964 levels, but still approached 60% in both sexes, among the highest rates recorded for a modern world population. The prevalence of low weight for height was less than expected, possibly because of the compensatory effect of enlarged chest diameter. This anatomical feature may represent the effect of chronic hypoxic stress, causing growth of the chest cavity at the expense of growth in height. In view of modest improvements during the late 1980s in this population, we believe that the relatively poor growth status of children a decade later may result from food disruption associated with later political instability. Compared with children in a nearby community, which benefits from the socioeconomic infrastructure associated with a large copper mine, Nuñoa children continue to fare relatively poorly. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 2010. © 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] The challenges and opportunities of implementing the integrity pact as a strategy for combating corruption in Nigeria's oil rich Niger Delta regionPUBLIC ADMINISTRATION & DEVELOPMENT, Issue 4 2010Uwafiokun Idemudia Abstract In recent years, significant local and transnational concerted initiatives have been instituted to curb the incidence of corruption that has undermined socio-economic development in Nigeria. Drawing on the critiques of such initiatives, and the experience from the process of implementing the Integrity Pact in the Niger Delta Development Commission, this article suggests that the Integrity Pact in principle offers real opportunities that can both reinforce and complement existing anti-corruption initiatives in Nigeria's public sector. However, political instability, lack of continuity in civil service leadership and limited capacity are core challenges that confront the successful implementation and institutionalisation of the Integrity Pact as a means of fighting corruption and meeting sustainable development objectives in the Niger Delta. The article concludes by considering the implications of the findings for the fight against corruption in Nigeria. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A Global Model for Forecasting Political InstabilityAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2010Jack A. Goldstone Examining onsets of political instability in countries worldwide from 1955 to 2003, we develop a model that distinguishes countries that experienced instability from those that remained stable with a two-year lead time and over 80% accuracy. Intriguingly, the model uses few variables and a simple specification. The model is accurate in forecasting the onsets of both violent civil wars and nonviolent democratic reversals, suggesting common factors in both types of change. Whereas regime type is typically measured using linear or binary indicators of democracy/autocracy derived from the 21-point Polity scale, the model uses a nonlinear five-category measure of regime type based on the Polity components. This new measure of regime type emerges as the most powerful predictor of instability onsets, leading us to conclude that political institutions, properly specified, and not economic conditions, demography, or geography, are the most important predictors of the onset of political instability. [source] Azerbaijan's resource wealth: political legitimacy and public opinionTHE GEOGRAPHICAL JOURNAL, Issue 3 2007SHANNON O'LEAR After considering how well Azerbaijan's economy follows the trajectory of a ,resource curse' state, this paper investigates the political dimensions of the resource curse evident in Azerbaijan. Of particular interest is how Azerbaijan appears to establish external and internal political legitimacy. These dimensions of sovereignty are not necessarily balanced or present in equal measure. The paper assesses the recent transition in leadership in Azerbaijan as well as Azerbaijan's interactions with, and assessment by, the international community. Additionally, national survey data provide insights into public concerns, satisfaction with government policy, and views on democracy and freedom of expression. The paper concludes that at present there appears to be sufficient public expectation for future benefits, combined with institutional stability, to stave off widespread political instability for the time being. [source] Commercializing lignocellulosic bioethanol: technology bottlenecks and possible remediesBIOFUELS, BIOPRODUCTS AND BIOREFINING, Issue 1 2010Saumita Banerjee Abstract With diminishing oil supplies and growing political instability in oil-producing nations, the world is facing a major energy threat which needs to be solved by virtue of alternative energy sources. Bioethanol has received considerable attention in the transportation sector because of its utility as an octane booster, fuel additive, and even as neat fuel. Brazil and the USA have been producing ethanol on a large scale from sugarcane and corn, respectively. However, due to their primary utility as food and feed, these crops cannot meet the global demand for ethanol production as an alternative transportation fuel. Lignocellulosic biomass is projected as a virtually eternal raw material for fuel ethanol production. The main bottleneck so far has been the technology concerns, which do not support cost-effective and competitive production of lignocellulosic bioethanol. This review sheds light on some of the practical approaches that can be adopted to make the production of lignocellulosic bioethanol economically attractive. These include the use of cheaper substrates, cost-effective pre-treatment techniques, overproducing and recombinant strains for maximized ethanol tolerance and yields, improved recovery processes, efficient bioprocess integration, economic exploitation of side products, and energy and waste minimization. An integrated and dedicated approach can help in realizing large-scale commercial production of lignocellulosic bioethanol, and can contribute toward a cleaner and more energy efficient world. Copyright © 2009 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd [source] |