Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Plausibility
Kinds of Plausibility Selected AbstractsAPPENDIX: THE PLAUSIBILITY OF AGB POLLUTIONMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 5 2009Article first published online: 26 JAN 2010 [source] Effect of Gender on Communication of Health Information to Older AdultsJOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 4 2006Jennifer L. Dearborn BA OBJECTIVES: To examine the effect of gender on three key elements of communication with elderly individuals: effectiveness of the communication, perceived relevance to the individual, and effect of gender-stereotyped content. DESIGN: Survey. SETTING: University of Connecticut Health Center. PARTICIPANTS: Thirty-three subjects (17 female); aged 69 to 91 (mean±standard deviation 82±5.4). MEASUREMENTS: Older adults listened to 16 brief narratives randomized in order and by the sex of the speaker (Narrator Voice). Effectiveness was measured according to ability to identify key features (Risks), and subjects were asked to rate the relevance (Plausibility). Number of Risks detected and determinations of plausibility were analyzed according to Subject Gender and Narrator Voice. Narratives were written for either sex or included male or female bias (Neutral or Stereotyped). RESULTS: Female subjects identified a significantly higher number of Risks across all narratives (P=.01). Subjects perceived a significantly higher number of Risks with a female Narrator Voice (P=.03). A significant Voice-by-Stereotype interaction was present for female-stereotyped narratives (P=.009). In narratives rated as Plausible, subjects detected more Risks (P=.02). CONCLUSION: Subject Gender influenced communication effectiveness. A female speaker resulted in identification of more Risks for subjects of both sexes, particularly for Stereotyped narratives. There was no significant effect of matching Subject Gender and Narrator Voice. This study suggests that the sex of the speaker influences the effectiveness of communication with older adults. These findings should motivate future research into the means by which medical providers can improve communication with their patients. [source] A Comparison of Hindsight Bias in Groups and Individuals: The Moderating Role of PlausibilityJOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Dong-Won Choi We compared the magnitude of the hindsight bias in individuals and groups with the prediction that the plausibility of an outcome would affect the magnitude of the group,individual difference. We provided groups and individuals with outcomes of scientific studies, and asked them to predict the probability of those outcomes as if they did not know the given outcomes and to report their level of surprise at the outcomes. Overall, groups were more prone to hindsight bias than were individuals, but the group,individual difference was present only when the given outcomes were relatively implausible (Study 1). Moreover, this difference was not eliminated even when participants were asked to consider alternative outcomes (Study 2). Implications are discussed. [source] A Heart Close to Cracking: Preachers Resurrecting the Body in a Roman Catholic Crisis of PlausibilityNEW BLACKFRIARS, Issue 984 2003Gregory Heille OP First page of article [source] Imagination equally influences false memories of high and low plausibility eventsAPPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 6 2009Stefanie J. Sharman To examine the effects of event plausibility on people's false beliefs and memories for imagined childhood events, subjects took part in a three-stage procedure. First, subjects rated how confident they were that they had experienced certain childhood events. They also rated their memories of the events. Second, 1,week later, subjects imagined one high, one moderate and one low plausibility event. Third, 1,week later (and 2,weeks after their initial ratings), subjects rated their confidence and memory a second time. Imagining the events made subjects more confident that they were genuine experiences and gave subjects clearer and more complete memories. Plausibility did not affect subjects' confidence but it did affect their memories. Subjects developed clearer and more complete memories for high, followed by moderate, followed by low plausibility events regardless of whether those events were imagined. We use a nested model of plausibility, belief and memory to discuss our findings. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Dempster,Shafer models for object recognition and classificationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, Issue 3 2006A.P. Dempster We consider situations in which each individual member of a defined object set is characterized uniquely by a set of variables, and we propose models and associated methods that recognize or classify a newly observed individual. Inputs consist of uncertain observations on the new individual and on a memory bank of previously identified individuals. Outputs consist of uncertain inferences concerning degrees of agreement between the new object and previously identified objects or object classes, with inferences represented by Dempster,Shafer belief functions. We illustrate the approach using models constructed from independent simple support belief functions defined on binary variables. In the case of object recognition, our models lead to marginal belief functions concerning how well the new object matches objects in memory. In the classification model, we compute beliefs and plausibilities that the new object lies in defined subsets of an object set. When regarded as similarity measures, our belief and plausibility functions can be interpreted as candidate membership functions in the terminology of fuzzy logic. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Int Syst 21: 283,297, 2006. [source] Pose Controlled Physically Based MotionCOMPUTER GRAPHICS FORUM, Issue 4 2006Raanan Fattal Abstract In this paper we describe a new method for generating and controlling physically-based motion of complex articulated characters. Our goal is to create motion from scratch, where the animator provides a small amount of input and gets in return a highly detailed and physically plausible motion. Our method relieves the animator from the burden of enforcing physical plausibility, but at the same time provides full control over the internal DOFs of the articulated character via a familiar interface. Control over the global DOFs is also provided by supporting kinematic constraints. Unconstrained portions of the motion are generated in real time, since the character is driven by joint torques generated by simple feedback controllers. Although kinematic constraints are satisfied using an iterative search (shooting), this process is typically inexpensive, since it only adjusts a few DOFs at a few time instances. The low expense of the optimization, combined with the ability to generate unconstrained motions in real time yields an efficient and practical tool, which is particularly attractive for high inertia motions with a relatively small number of kinematic constraints. [source] Calculation of Posterior Probabilities for Bayesian Model Class Assessment and Averaging from Posterior Samples Based on Dynamic System DataCOMPUTER-AIDED CIVIL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING, Issue 5 2010Sai Hung Cheung Because of modeling uncertainty, a set of competing candidate model classes may be available to represent a system and it is then desirable to assess the plausibility of each model class based on system data. Bayesian model class assessment may then be used, which is based on the posterior probability of the different candidates for representing the system. If more than one model class has significant posterior probability, then Bayesian model class averaging provides a coherent mechanism to incorporate all of these model classes in making probabilistic predictions for the system response. This Bayesian model assessment and averaging requires calculation of the evidence for each model class based on the system data, which requires the evaluation of a multi-dimensional integral involving the product of the likelihood and prior defined by the model class. In this article, a general method for calculating the evidence is proposed based on using posterior samples from any Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by Bayesian model updating and assessment using simulated earthquake data from a ten-story nonclassically damped building responding linearly and a four-story building responding inelastically. [source] Examining Drivers of Course Performance: An Exploratory Examination of an Introductory CIS Applications CourseDECISION SCIENCES JOURNAL OF INNOVATIVE EDUCATION, Issue 1 2006Rhonda A. Syler ABSTRACT The accelerating diffusion of broadband Internet access provides many opportunities for the development of pedagogically robust Web-based instruction (WBI). While the supporting technology infrastructure of broadband disseminates, the attention of academic researchers focuses upon issues such as the drivers of student usage of WBI. Specifically, the research presented herein examined the impact of WBI on a student's aggregate course performance. We hypothesized that learning independence (LI) is a determinate factor in a student's use of WBI. In this study, we employed structural equation modeling techniques to examine the data and assess the direct and indirect effects of LI on WBI usage. The subjects, students in an introductory Computer Information Systems applications course, used a Web-based tutorial program for skills instruction. The findings of this study suggest that WBI usage has a significant impact on a student's course performance. Despite its plausibility, the effect of LI on WBI usage was not significant. However, we did conclude that two of the second order factors of the LI construct have a direct effect on a student's performance in the course. [source] Are antidepressants safe in the treatment of bipolar depression?ACTA PSYCHIATRICA SCANDINAVICA, Issue 5 2008A critical evaluation of their potential risk to induce switch into mania or cycle acceleration Objective:, To address whether switch of depression into hypomania or mania or cycle acceleration in patients with bipolar disorder is caused by antidepressants or whether this phenomenon is attributable to the natural history of bipolar disorder itself. Method:, A critical review of the literature, pointing at sources of bias that have been previously overlooked. For examining the causation in question, the Bradford,Hill criteria were applied, i.e. specificity of the potential causative agent, strength of effect, consistency in findings, dose,response relation, temporal relation with exposure to agent preceding effect and biological plausibility. Results:, There is a scarcity of randomized studies addressing the question, and the available studies all suffer from various forms of bias. However, there is some evidence suggesting that antidepressants given in addition to a mood stabilizer are not associated with an increased rate of switch when compared with the rate associated with the mood stabilizer alone. Conclusion:, When combined with a mood stabilizer, antidepressants given for acute bipolar depression seemingly do not induce a switch into hypomania or mania. Whether antidepressants may accelerate episode frequency and/or may cause other forms of destabilization in patients with bipolar disorder remain to be properly studied. [source] Inductive Inference: An Axiomatic ApproachECONOMETRICA, Issue 1 2003Itzhak Gilboa A predictor is asked to rank eventualities according to their plausibility, based on past cases. We assume that she can form a ranking given any memory that consists of finitely many past cases. Mild consistency requirements on these rankings imply that they have a numerical representation via a matrix assigning numbers to eventuality,case pairs, as follows. Given a memory, each eventuality is ranked according to the sum of the numbers in its row, over cases in memory. The number attached to an eventuality,case pair can be interpreted as the degree of support that the past case lends to the plausibility of the eventuality. Special instances of this result may be viewed as axiomatizing kernel methods for estimation of densities and for classification problems. Interpreting the same result for rankings of theories or hypotheses, rather than of specific eventualities, it is shown that one may ascribe to the predictor subjective conditional probabilities of cases given theories, such that her rankings of theories agree with rankings by the likelihood functions. [source] Non-linearities, Business Cycles and Exchange RatesECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2008Menzie D. Chinn This paper conjoins the disparate empirical literatures on exchange rate models and monetary policy models, with special reference to the importance of output, inflation gaps and exchange rate targets. It focuses in on the dollar/euro exchange rate, and the differential results arising from using alternative measures of the output gap for the US and for the Euro area. A comparison of ,in-sample' prediction against alternative models of exchange rates is also conducted. In addition to predictive power, I also assess the various models' plausibility as economic explanations for exchange rate movements, based on the conformity of coefficient estimates with priors. Taylor rule fundamentals appear to do as well, or better, than other models at the 1-year horizon. [source] Economic aspects of human cloning and reprogeneticsECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 36 2003Gilles Saint-Paul SUMMARY While most discussions of human cloning start and end with ethics, this paper analyses the economics of human cloning. I analyse the incentives for cloning and its implications for the long-run distribution of skills and income. I discuss models of human cloning for different motives, focusing on those that tend to produce new human beings with improved ability. I distinguish three cases: cloning as a means of assisted reproduction for infertile couples, cloning by fertile couples aimed at producing high ability offspring and, finally, financially motivated cloning. The third case supposes that the creator of a clone can appropriate some fraction of the clone's future income. Even if this fraction is small, the possibility of producing exceptionally talented clones with correspondingly high incomes might make it profitable, and thus turn cloning into a form of financial investment. An important consequence of these models is that to the extent that ability is genetically determined and cloners prefer to make high-ability clones, cloning will act as a form of what might be called ,unnatural selection'. Following standard Darwinian logic, such selection will tend to increase the proportion of high ability people in society. Indeed, under some assumptions the distribution of ability eventually converges to a mass point at the highest possible ability level. Under weaker assumptions, it is shown that ability-reducing genes are eventually eliminated. These results do not depend on cloning displacing sexual reproduction or even being widespread; they hold even if a small, or even negligible number of top ability workers are cloned at a small (but not negligible) number of copies. The paper discusses the plausibility of the models and their results in light on the evidence on marriage markets, child selection, human assisted reproduction and animal husbandry. Finally, it is shown how the analysis can be used to help formulate policies toward cloning, whether they aim at preventing it or managing its external effects. , Gilles Saint-Paul [source] Othello and the Geography of PersuasionENGLISH LITERARY RENAISSANCE, Issue 1 2010Catherine Nicholson Othello is a revealing commentary on the unstable geographic underpinnings of early modern English theories of persuasion, which vacillate between affirming the authority of the commonplace and recognizing the allure of the novel and the strange. Thomas Rymer attacks the play as a tissue of improbabilities: Rymer's rigidly Aristotelian critique has been dismissed as a willfully insensitive and racist misreading, but his insistence on conflating credibility with racial identity coincides with Othello's own representation of its hero as doubly far-fetched. Othello's strangeness is both the key to his eloquence and the root of his vulnerability to Iago's skillful deployment of insider knowledge and plausible fictions. The play's racial dynamics thus play out rhetorically: Brabantio's locally-specific likelihoods may yield to Othello's exotic figures of speech, but Iago's commonplaces triumph in the end. This contest between plausibility and extravagance doesn't merely echo the play's geographic plotting, it points to the inextricability of early modern ideas about eloquence and about place. (C.N.) [source] Are Anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa separate disorders?EUROPEAN EATING DISORDERS REVIEW, Issue 1 2009Challenging the, transdiagnostic' theory of eating disorders Abstract Background Anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are classified as separate and distinct clinical disorders. Recently, there has been support for a transdiagnostic theory of eating disorders, which would reclassify them as one disorder. Objective To determine whether AN and BN are a single disorder with one cause or separate disorders with different causes. Method Hill's Criteria of Causation were used to test the hypothesis that AN and BN are one disorder with a single cause. Hill's Criteria of Causation demand that the minimal conditions are needed to establish a causal relationship between two items which include all of the following: strength of association, consistency, temporality, biological gradient, plausibility, coherence, experimental evidence and analogy. Results The hypothesis that AN and BN have a single cause did not meet all of Hill's Criteria of Causation. Strength of association, plausibility, analogy and some experimental evidence were met, but not consistency, specificity, temporality, biological gradient, coherence and most experimental evidence. Conclusions The hypothesis that AN and BN are a single disorder with a common cause is not supported by Hill's Criteria of Causation. This argues against the notion of a transdiagnostic theory of eating disorders. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association. [source] Alcohol and mortality: methodological and analytical issues in aggregate analysesADDICTION, Issue 1s1 2001Thor Norström This supplement includes a collection of papers that aim at estimating the relationship between per capita alcohol consumption and various forms of mortality, including mortality from liver cirrhosis, accidents, suicide, homicide, ischaemic heart disease, and total mortality. The papers apply a uniform methodological protocol, and they are all based on time series data covering the post-war period in the present EU countries and Norway. In this paper we discuss various methodological and analytical issues that are common to these papers. We argue that analysis of time series data is the most feasible approach for assessing the aggregate health consequences of changes in population drinking. We further discuss how aggregate data may also be useful for judging the plausibility of individual-level relationships, particularly those prone to be confounded by selection effects. The aggregation of linear and curvilinear risk curves is treated as well as various methods for dealing with the time-lag problem. With regard to estimation techniques we find country specific analyses preferable to pooled cross-sectional/time series models since the latter incorporate the dubious element of geographical co-variation, and conceal potentially interesting variations in alcohol effects. The approach taken in the papers at hand is instead to pool the country specific results into three groups of countries that represent different drinking cultures; traditional wine countries of southern Europe, beer countries of central Europe and the British Isles and spirits countries of northern Europe. The findings of the papers reinforce the central tenet of the public health perspective that overall consumption is an important determinant of alcohol-related harm rates. However, there is a variation across country groups in alcohol effects, particularly those on violent deaths, that indicates the potential importance of drinking patterns. There is no support for the notion that increases in per capita consumption have any cardioprotective effects at the population level. [source] THE CONDITIONS FOR SPECIATION THROUGH INTRASPECIFIC COMPETITIONEVOLUTION, Issue 11 2006Reinhard Bürger Abstract It has been shown theoretically that sympatric speciation can occur if intraspecific competition is strong enough to induce disruptive selection. However, the plausibility of the involved processes is under debate, and many questions on the conditions for speciation remain unresolved. For instance, is strong disruptive selection sufficient for speciation? Which roles do genetic architecture and initial composition of the population play? How strong must assortative mating be before a population can split in two? These are some of the issues we address here. We investigate a diploid multilocus model of a quantitative trait that is under frequency-dependent selection caused by a balance of intraspecific competition and frequency-independent stabilizing selection. This trait also acts as mating character for assortment. It has been established previously that speciation can occur only if competition is strong enough to induce disruptive selection. We find that speciation becomes more difficult for very strong competition, because then extremely strong assortment is required. Thus, speciation is most likely for intermediate strengths of competition, where it requires strong, but not extremely strong, assortment. For this range of parameters, however, it is not obvious how assortment can evolve from low to high levels, because with moderately strong assortment less genetic variation is maintained than under weak or strong assortment sometimes none at all. In addition to the strength of frequency-dependent competition and assortative mating, the roles of the number of loci, the distribution of allelic effects, the initial conditions, costs to being choosy, the strength of stabilizing selection, and the particular choice of the fitness function are explored. A multitude of possible evolutionary outcomes is observed, including loss of all genetic variation, splitting in two to five species, as well as very short and extremely long stable limit cycles. On the methodological side, we propose quantitative measures for deciding whether a given distribution reflects two (or more) reproductively isolated clusters. [source] Why we're still arguing about the Pleistocene occupation of the AmericasEVOLUTIONARY ANTHROPOLOGY, Issue 2 2007Nicole M. Waguespack Abstract Although empirical issues surround the when, how, and who questions of New World colonization, much of current debate hinges on theoretical problems because it has become clear that our understanding of New World colonization is not resolute.1 In fact, the central issues of debate have remained essentially unchanged for the last eighty years. The now classic and probably incorrect story of New World colonization begins in Late Pleistocene Siberia, with small a population of foragers migrating across Beringia (,13,500 calendar years before present (CYBP) (Box 1) through an ice-free corridor and traveling through the interior of North America. High mobility and rapid population growth spurred southward expansion into increasingly distant unoccupied regions, culminating in the settlement of the Southern Cone of South America. Armed with the skills and weapons needed to maintain a megafauna-based subsistence strategy, early colonists necessarily had the adaptive flexibility to colonize a diverse array of Pleistocene landscapes. For a time, this scenario seemed well substantiated. The earliest sites in South America were younger than their northern counterparts, fluted artifacts were found across the Americas within a brief temporal window, and projectile points capable of wounding elephant-sized prey were commonly found in association with proboscidean remains. The Bering Land Bridge connecting Asia to Alaska and an ice-free corridor providing passage between the Pleistocene ice masses of Canada seemed to provide a clear route of entry for Clovis colonists. However, recent archeological, paleoenvironmental, biological, and theoretical work largely questions the plausibility of these events. [source] A prototype store choice and location modelling system using Dempster,Shafer theoryEXPERT SYSTEMS, Issue 5 2002Malcolm Beynon This paper concerns the study of destination choice modelling, more specifically identifying within some area (e.g. a city) the region where a particular store is the most favourable to be visited by individuals. An influence measure is constructed for each individual, which incorporates the modern technique known as Dempster,Shafer theory. Based on the evidence of the shopping destinations of individuals, geographical regions are found for levels of largest belief and plausibility (within Dempster,Shafer theory) for specific stores being the most favourable to visit. Additionally, this method may be used to identify the possible position of new stores, based on regions of most uncertainty or conflict in store choice. A prototype choice modelling system is introduced to enable the series of associated results to be easily visualized and analysed. [source] The Limits of Design: Explaining Institutional Origins and ChangeGOVERNANCE, Issue 4 2000Paul Pierson Political scientists have paid much more attention to the effects of institutions than to issues of institutional origins and change. One result has been a marked tendency to fall back on implicit or explicit functional accounts, in which the effects of institutions explain the presence of those institutions. Institutional effects may indeed provide part of such an explanation. Yet the plausibility of functional accounts depends upon either a set of favorable conditions at the design stage or the presence of environments conducive to learning or competition. Exploring variability in the relevant social contexts makes it possible to both establish the restricted range of functional accounts and specify some promising lines of inquiry into the subject of institutional origins and change. [source] Multilevel models for estimating incremental net benefits in multinational studiesHEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 8 2007Richard Grieve Abstract Multilevel models (MLMs) have been recommended for estimating incremental net benefits (INBs) in multicentre cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). However, these models have assumed that the INBs are exchangeable and that there is a common variance across all centres. This paper examines the plausibility of these assumptions by comparing various MLMs for estimating the mean INB in a multinational CEA. The results showed that the MLMs that assumed the INBs were exchangeable and had a common variance led to incorrect inferences. The MLMs that included covariates to allow for systematic differences across the centres, and estimated different variances in each centre, made more plausible assumptions, fitted the data better and led to more appropriate inferences. We conclude that the validity of assumptions underlying MLMs used in CEA need to be critically evaluated before reliable conclusions can be drawn. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Disease-specific Helicobacter pylori Virulence Factors: The Unfulfilled PromiseHELICOBACTER, Issue S1 2000David Y. Graham A number of putative virulence factors for Helicobacter pylori have been identified including cagA, vacA and iceA. The criteria for a true virulence factor includes meeting the tests of biologically plausibility with the associations being both experimentally and epidemiologically consistent. Although disease-specific associations have been hypothesized/claimed, there are now sufficient data to conclusively state that none of these putative virulence factors have disease specificity. CagA has been claimed to be associated with increased mucosal IL-8 and inflammation, increased density of H. pylori in the antrum, duodenal ulcer (DU), gastric cancer, and protection against Barrett's cancer. Only the increase in IL-8/inflammation is direct and substantiated. Different H. pylori strains with functional cag pathogenicity islands do not vary in virulance as it has been shown that mucosal IL-8 levels are proportional to the number of cagA +H. pylori independent of the disease from which the H. pylori were obtained. It is now known that the density of either cagA + and cagA,H. pylori in the antrum of patients with H. pylori gastritis is the same. In contrast, the mean density of H. pylori in the antrum in DU is greater than in the antrum of patients with H. pylori gastritis. Of interest, the density of H. pylori is higher in the corpus of patients with H. pylori gastritis than those with DU, suggesting that acid secretion plays a critical role in these phenomena. The presence of a functional cag pathogenicity island increases inflammation and it is likely that any factor that results in an increase in inflammation also increases the risk of a symptomatic outcome. Nevertheless, the presence of a functional cag pathogenicity island has no predictive value for the presence, or the future development of a clinically significant outcome. The hypothesis that iceA has disease specificity has not been confirmed and there is currently no known biological or epidemiological evidence for a role for iceA as a virulence factor in H. pylori -related disease. The claim that vacA genotyping might prove clinically useful, e.g. to predict presentation such as duodenal ulcer, has been proven wrong. Analysis of the worldwide data show that vacA genotype s1 is actually a surrogate for the cag pathogenicity island. There is now evidence to suggest that virulence is a host-dependent factor. The pattern of gastritis has withstood the test of time for its relation to different H. pylori -related diseases (e.g. antral predominant gastritis with duodenal ulcer disease). The primary factors responsible for the different patterns of gastritis in response to an H. pylori infection are environmental (e.g. diet), with the H. pylori strain playing a lesser role. Future studies should work to eliminate potential bias before claiming disease associations. Controls must exclude regional or geographic associations related to the common strain circulation and not to the outcome. The authors must also control for both the presence of the factor and for the disease association. The study should be sufficiently large and employ different diseases and ethnic groups for the results to be robust. The findings in the initial sample (data derived hypothesis) should be tested in a new group (hypothesis testing), preferably from another area, before making claims. Finally, it is important to ask whether the results are actually a surrogate for another marker (e.g. vacA s1 for cagA) masquerading for a new finding. Only the cag pathogenicity island has passed the tests of biological plausibility (increased inflammation) and experimental and epidemiological consistency. [source] Catharinus versus Luther, 1521HISTORY, Issue 291 2003Patrick Preston In 1520 at the instigation of the influential Cardinals Giulio de' Medici and Nicholas von Schönberg, Ambrosius Catharinus Politus was asked to undertake the defence of the Church against Luther. Catharinus wrote the Apologia of 1520 at great speed, but he did not betray the trust that had been placed in him. Indeed, the resulting work may with plausibility be considered the literary origin of the Counter-Reformation. The main argument of this article is that the eleven ways of deceiving the people that Catharinus ascribed to Luther in Book I of the Apologia were tantamount to the claim that Luther was Antichrist. Luther was angered by the innuendo and responded in 1521 by applying the ,Antichrist' description not to any specific individual but to the entire papal church. In reading Daniel 23,5 as a prophecy of a Church that was the instrument of Satan, Luther revealed a remarkable comic gift, but he did not answer the case that Catharinus had made against him in a very different polemical style. [source] Effect of forklift operation on lower back pain: An evidence-based approachHUMAN FACTORS AND ERGONOMICS IN MANUFACTURING & SERVICE INDUSTRIES, Issue 2 2008Heriberto Barriera Viruet Most studies on the occupational hazards associated with forklift operation have examined risks of fatalities and traumatic injuries. Few studies have examined the magnitude of risk of lower back pain. This research deals with an evidence-based approach designed to examine if there is a relationship between whole-body vibration and driver postures with lower back pain among forklift operators and to offer some recommendations to minimize the risk of lower back pain. To accomplish the study goal, an evidence-based approach was adopted from evidence-based medicine. The basic steps of this evidence-based approach were: (1) formulation of a clear research question from a worker-occupational problem; (2) search of the literature for the best evidence with which to answer the question; (3) critically appraise the evidence; and (4) implement useful findings in occupational health and safety practices. In addition, the metarelative risk was calculated and the biological plausibility between whole body vibration (WBV) and operator posture with lower back pain was investigated. Six observational articles satisfied the inclusion criteria adopted in this research. The methodological qualities of the published studies ranged from marginal to average. The metarelative risk was 2.1, indicating that operators exposed to driving forklifts are greater than twice the risk of those not exposed to driving forklifts to experience lower back pain. There are biological mechanisms by which WBV and operator postures could develop lower back pain. Some aspects of the work environment that influenced vibration are seat, speed, track, and tires. Awkward postures and static postures are affected by cab design, seat, time spent seated, and the task performed. It appears that there is a causal relationship between forklift operation and lower back pain. The evidence examined shows a strong association and consistency between all studies and this relationship is biologically plausible. It is recommended that intervention studies be conducted to determine the effectiveness of ergonomic controls. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Sensitivity analysis of prior model probabilities and the value of prior knowledge in the assessment of conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modellingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 8 2009Rodrigo Rojas Abstract A key point in the application of multi-model Bayesian averaging techniques to assess the predictive uncertainty in groundwater modelling applications is the definition of prior model probabilities, which reflect the prior perception about the plausibility of alternative models. In this work the influence of prior knowledge and prior model probabilities on posterior model probabilities, multi-model predictions, and conceptual model uncertainty estimations is analysed. The sensitivity to prior model probabilities is assessed using an extensive numerical analysis in which the prior probability space of a set of plausible conceptualizations is discretized to obtain a large ensemble of possible combinations of prior model probabilities. Additionally, the value of prior knowledge about alternative models in reducing conceptual model uncertainty is assessed by considering three example knowledge states, expressed as quantitative relations among the alternative models. A constrained maximum entropy approach is used to find the set of prior model probabilities that correspond to the different prior knowledge states. For illustrative purposes, a three-dimensional hypothetical setup approximated by seven alternative conceptual models is employed. Results show that posterior model probabilities, leading moments of the predictive distributions and estimations of conceptual model uncertainty are very sensitive to prior model probabilities, indicating the relevance of selecting proper prior probabilities. Additionally, including proper prior knowledge improves the predictive performance of the multi-model approach, expressed by reductions of the multi-model prediction variances by up to 60% compared with a non-informative case. However, the ratio between-model to total variance does not substantially decrease. This suggests that the contribution of conceptual model uncertainty to the total variance cannot be further reduced based only on prior knowledge about the plausibility of alternative models. These results advocate including proper prior knowledge about alternative conceptualizations in combination with extra conditioning data to further reduce conceptual model uncertainty in groundwater modelling predictions. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] An Assessment of the Disorderly Adjustment Hypothesis for Industrial Economies,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2006Hilary Croke Much has been written about prospects for US current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a ,disorderly correction': a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the plausibility of the disorderly adjustment scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000). We found little evidence among past adjustment episodes of the features highlighted by the disorderly adjustment hypothesis. Although some episodes in our sample experienced significant shortfalls in GDP growth after the onset of adjustment, these shortfalls were not associated with significant and sustained depreciations of real exchange rates, increases in real interest rates or declines in real stock prices. By contrast, it was among the episodes where GDP growth picked up during adjustment that the most substantial depreciations of real exchange rates occurred. These findings do not preclude the possibility that future current account adjustments could be disruptive, but they weaken the historical basis for predicting such an outcome. [source] Carbaryl exposure and incident cancer in the Agricultural Health StudyINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER, Issue 8 2007Rajeev Mahajan Abstract Carbaryl is a carbamate insecticide with a broad spectrum of uses in agricultural, commercial and household settings. It has previously been linked with non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) but studies of cancer risk in humans are limited. We examined occupational carbaryl use and risk of all cancers in the Agricultural Health Study, a prospective study of a cohort of pesticide applicators in North Carolina and Iowa. This analysis included 21,416 subjects (1,291 cases) enrolled from 1993,1997 and followed for cancer incidence through 2003. Pesticide exposure and other data were collected using self-administered questionnaires. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) while controlling for potential confounders. Carbaryl was not associated with cancer risk overall. Relative to subjects who never used carbaryl, melanoma risk was elevated with >175 lifetime exposure-days (RR = 4.11; 95%CI, 1.33,12.75; p -trend = 0.07), >10 years of use (RR = 3.19; 95%CI, 1.28,7.92; p -trend = 0.04), or ,10 days of use per year (RR = 5.50; 95%CI, 2.19,13.84; p -trend < 0.001). Risk remained after adjusting for sunlight exposure. Although not significant, there appeared to be a trend of decreasing prostate cancer risk with increasing level of exposure. A small increase in NHL risk was observed using some, but not all, exposure measures. No associations were observed with other examined cancer sites. Because the observed results were not hypothesized a priori and because of limited study of their biological plausibility, they should be interpreted with caution. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Association between pacifier use and breast-feeding, sudden infant death syndrome, infection and dental malocclusionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EVIDENCE BASED HEALTHCARE, Issue 6 2005Ann Callaghan RN RM BNurs(Hons) Executive summary Objective, To critically review all literature related to pacifier use for full-term healthy infants and young children. The specific review questions addressed are: What is the evidence of adverse and/or positive outcomes of pacifier use in infancy and childhood in relation to each of the following subtopics: ,breast-feeding; ,sudden infant death syndrome; ,infection; ,dental malocclusion. Inclusion criteria, Specific criteria were used to determine which studies would be included in the review: (i) the types of participants; (ii) the types of research design; and (iii) the types of outcome measures. To be included a study has to meet all criteria. Types of participants,The participants included in the review were healthy term infants and healthy children up to the age of 16 years. Studies that focused on preterm infants, and infants and young children with serious illness or congenital malformations were excluded. However, some total population studies did include these children. Types of research design, It became evident early in the review process that very few randomised controlled trials had been conducted. A decision was made to include observational epidemiological designs, specifically prospective cohort studies and, in the case of sudden infant death syndrome research, case,control studies. Purely descriptive and cross-sectional studies were excluded, as were qualitative studies and all other forms of evidence. A number of criteria have been proposed to establish causation in the scientific and medical literature. These key criteria were applied in the review process and are described as follows: (i) consistency and unbiasedness of findings; (ii) strength of association; (iii) temporal sequence; (iv) dose,response relationship; (v) specificity; (vi) coherence with biological background and previous knowledge; (vii) biological plausibility; and (viii) experimental evidence. Studies that did not meet the requirement of appropriate temporal sequencing of events and studies that did not present an estimate of the strength of association were not included in the final review. Types of outcome measures,Our specific interest was pacifier use related to: ,breast-feeding; ,sudden infant death syndrome; ,infection; ,dental malocclusion. Studies that examined pacifier use related to procedural pain relief were excluded. Studies that examined the relationship between pacifier use and gastro-oesophageal reflux were also excluded as this information has been recently presented as a systematic review. Search strategy, The review comprised published and unpublished research literature. The search was restricted to reports published in English, Spanish and German. The time period covered research published from January 1960 to October 2003. A protocol developed by New Zealand Health Technology Assessment was used to guide the search process. The search comprised bibliographic databases, citation searching, other evidence-based and guidelines sites, government documents, books and reports, professional websites, national associations, hand search, contacting national/international experts and general internet searching. Assessment of quality, All studies identified during the database search were assessed for relevance to the review based on the information provided in the title, abstract and descriptor/MeSH terms, and a full report was retrieved for all studies that met the inclusion criteria. Studies identified from reference list searches were assessed for relevance based on the study title. Keywords included: dummy, dummies, pacifier(s), soother(s), comforter(s), non-nutritive sucking, infant, child, infant care. Initially, studies were reviewed for inclusion by pairs of principal investigators. Authorship of articles was not concealed from the reviewers. Next, the methodological quality of included articles was assessed independently by groups of three or more principal investigators and clinicians using a checklist. All 20 studies that were accepted met minimum set criteria, but few passed without some methodological concern. Data extraction, To meet the requirements of the Joanna Briggs Institute, reasons for acceptance and non-acceptance at each phase were clearly documented. An assessment protocol and report form was developed for each of the three phases of review. The first form was created to record investigators' evaluations of studies included in the initial review. Those studies that failed to meet strict inclusion criteria were excluded at this point. A second form was designed to facilitate an in-depth critique of epidemiological study methodology. The checklist was pilot tested and adjustments were made before reviewers were trained in its use. When reviewers could not agree on an assessment, it was passed to additional reviewers and discussed until a consensus was reached. At this stage, studies other than cohort, case,control and randomised controlled trials were excluded. Issues of clarification were also addressed at this point. The final phase was that of integration. This phase, undertaken by the principal investigators, was assisted by the production of data extraction tables. Through a process of trial and error, a framework was formulated that adequately summarised the key elements of the studies. This information was tabulated under the following headings: authors/setting, design, exposure/outcome, confounders controlled, analysis and main findings. Results, With regard to the breast-feeding outcome, 10 studies met the inclusion criteria, comprising two randomised controlled trials and eight cohort studies. The research was conducted between 1995 and 2003 in a wide variety of settings involving research participants from diverse socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds. Information regarding exposure and outcome status, and potential confounding factors was obtained from: antenatal and postnatal records; interviews before discharge from obstetric/midwifery care; post-discharge interviews; and post-discharge postal and telephone surveys. Both the level of contact and the frequency of contact with the informant, the child's mother, differed widely. Pacifier use was defined and measured inconsistently, possibly because few studies were initiated expressly to investigate its relationship with breast-feeding. Completeness of follow-up was addressed, but missing data were not uniformly identified and explained. When comparisons were made between participants and non-participants there was some evidence of differential loss and a bias towards families in higher socioeconomic groups. Multivariate analysis was undertaken in the majority of studies, with some including a large number of sociodemographic, obstetric and infant covariates and others including just maternal age and education. As might be expected given the inconsistency of definition and measurement, the relationship between pacifier use and breast-feeding was expressed in many different ways and a meta-analysis was not appropriate. In summary, only one study did not report a negative association between pacifier use and breast-feeding duration or exclusivity. Results indicate an increase in risk for a reduced overall duration of breast-feeding from 20% to almost threefold. The data suggest that very infrequent use may not have any overall negative impact on breast-feeding outcomes. Six sudden infant death syndrome case,control studies met the criteria for inclusion. The research was conducted with information gathered between 1984 and 1999 in Norway, UK, New Zealand, the Netherlands and USA. Exposure information was obtained from a variety of sources including: hospital and antenatal records, death scene investigation, and interview and questionnaire. Information for cases was sought within 2 days after death, within 2,4 weeks after death and in one study between 3 and 11 years after death. Information for controls was sought from as early as 4 days of a nominated sudden infant death syndrome case, to between 1 and 7 weeks from the case date, and again in one study some 3,11 years later. In the majority of the studies case ascertainment was determined by post-mortem. Pacifier use was again defined and measured somewhat inconsistently. All studies controlled for confounding factors by matching and/or using multivariate analysis. Generally, antenatal and postnatal factors, as well as infant care practices, and maternal, family and socioeconomic issues were considered. All five studies reporting multivariate results found significantly fewer sudden infant death syndrome cases used a pacifier compared with controls. That is, pacifier use was associated with a reduced incidence of sudden infant death syndrome. These results indicate that the risk of sudden infant death syndrome for infants who did not use a pacifier in the last or reference sleep was at least twice, and possibly five times, that of infants who did use a pacifier. Three studies reported a moderately sized positive association between pacifier use and a variety of infections. Conversely, one study found no positive association between pacifier use at 15 months of age and a range of infections experienced between the ages of 6 and 18 months. Given the limited number of studies available and the variability of results, no meaningful conclusions could be drawn. Five cohort studies and one case,control study focused on the relationship between pacifier use and dental malocclusion. Not one of these studies reported a measure of association, such as an estimate of relative risk. It was therefore not possible to include these studies in the final review. Implications for practice, It is intended that this review be used as the basis of a ,best practice guideline', to make health professionals aware of the research evidence concerning these health and developmental consequences of pacifier use, because parents need clear information on which they can base child care decisions. With regard to the association between pacifier use and infection and dental malocclusion it was found that, due to the paucity of epidemiological studies, no meaningful conclusion can be drawn. There is clearly a need for more epidemiological research with regard to these two outcomes. The evidence for a relationship between pacifier use and sudden infant death syndrome is consistent, while the exact mechanism of the effect is not well understood. As to breast-feeding, research evidence shows that pacifier use in infancy is associated with a shorter duration and non-exclusivity. It is plausible that pacifier use causes babies to breast-feed less, but a causal relationship has not been irrefutably proven. Because breast-feeding confers an important advantage on all children and the incidence of sudden infant death syndrome is very low, it is recommended that health professionals generally advise parents against pacifier use, while taking into account individual circumstances. [source] An evolutionist approach to information bipolarity: Representations and affects in human cognitionINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, Issue 8 2008Eric Raufaste This paper investigates the psychological plausibility of the bipolarity concept, i.e., that positive and negative kinds of information are treated differently. Sections 2 and 3 review relevant investigations of the representational and affective systems in the experimental psychology literature. Section 4 provides new data supporting the idea that even when considering how affective changes occur, a certain level of independence exists between the positive and negative sides of affect. Together the studies reported here strongly support the psychological plausibility of bipolarity: Positive and negative kinds of information are not processed in the same way whichever domain is considered, preferences (affect) or beliefs (mental categories). © 2008 Wiley Periodicals Inc. [source] Bipolarity in human reasoning and affective decision makingINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, Issue 8 2008Rui Da Silva Neves This article explores several facets of bipolarity in human reasoning and affective decision making. First, it examines how positive and negative pieces of information help to discriminate between classical forms of reasoning (deduction, induction, and abduction). It is shown that (1) both positive and negative information can independently account for these distinctions and (2) these same distinctions can be accounted for by a possibilistic analysis of the plausibility of the states of the world ruled out by the premises and the ones compatible with these premises. Second, it is shown that an analysis of the plausibility ("impossible," "guaranteed possible," "nonimpossible") of the states of the world ruled out or allowed by positive or negative pieces of information in human hypothesis testing allows us to explain some puzzling psychological results. Next, bipolarity is explored in the domain of affective decision making. It is proposed notably that the combination of the bivariate bipolarity of emotions (negative, neutral, positive) and the multivariate bipolarity of emotions of comparison provide the tools for an emotional reasoning and decision making which might be the way by which we actually evaluate possible situations and take our decisions, instead of maximizing our expected utility. © 2008 Wiley Periodcals, Inc. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||