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Selected AbstractsX-Cell: a novel indexing algorithm for routine tasks and difficult casesJOURNAL OF APPLIED CRYSTALLOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2003Marcus A. Neumann X-Cell is a novel indexing algorithm that makes explicit use of systematic absences to search for possible indexing solutions from cells with low numbers of calculated reflections to cells with high numbers of reflections. Space groups with the same pattern of systematic absences are grouped together in powder extinction classes, and for a given peak number range an independent search is carried out in each powder extinction class. The method has the advantage that the correct cell is likely to be found before the rapid increase of possible solutions slows down the search significantly. A successive dichotomy approach is used to establish a complete list of all possible indexing solutions. The dichotomy procedure is combined with a search for the zero-point shift of the diffraction pattern, and impurity peaks can be dealt with by allowing for a user-defined portion of unindexed reflections. To rank indexing solutions with varying numbers of unindexed reflections, a new figure of merit is introduced that takes into account the highest level of agreement typically obtained for completely incorrect unit cells. The indexing of long and flat unit cells is facilitated by the possibility to search for rows or zones in reciprocal space first and then to use the lattice parameters of the dominant row or zone in the unit-cell search. The main advantages of X-Cell are robustness and completeness, as demonstrated by a validation study on a variety of compounds. The dominant phase of phase mixtures can be indexed in the presence of up to 50% of impurity peaks if high-quality synchrotron data are available. [source] Anticipating Demand for Emergency Health Services due to Medication-related Adverse Events after Rapid Mass Prophylaxis CampaignsACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 3 2007Nathaniel Hupert MD Objectives: Mass prophylaxis against infectious disease outbreaks carries the risk of medication-related adverse events (MRAEs). The authors sought to define the relationship between the rapidity of mass prophylaxis dispensing and the subsequent demand for emergency health services due to predictable MRAEs. Methods: The authors created a spreadsheet-based computer model that calculates scenario-specific predicted daily MRAE rates from user inputs by applying a probability distribution to the reported timing of MRAEs. A hypothetical two- to ten-day prophylaxis campaign for one million people using recent data from both smallpox vaccination and anthrax chemoprophylaxis campaigns was modeled. Results: The length of a mass prophylaxis campaign plays an important role in determining the subsequent intensity in emergency services utilization due to real or suspected adverse events. A two-day smallpox vaccination scenario would produce an estimated 32,000 medical encounters and 1,960 hospitalizations, peaking at 5,246 health care encounters six days after the start of the campaign; in contrast, a ten-day campaign would lead to 41% lower peak surge, with a maximum of 3,106 encounters on the busiest day, ten days after initiation of the campaign. MRAEs with longer lead times, such as those associated with anthrax chemoprophylaxis, exhibit less variability based on campaign length (e.g., 124 out of an estimated 1,400 hospitalizations on day 20 after a two-day campaign versus 103 on day 24 after a ten-day campaign). Conclusions: The duration of a mass prophylaxis campaign may have a substantial impact on the timing and peak number of clinically significant MRAEs, with very short campaigns overwhelming existing emergency department (ED) capacity to treat real or suspected medication-related injuries. While better reporting of both incidence and timing of MRAEs in future prophylaxis campaigns should improve the application of this model to community-based emergency preparedness planning, these results highlight the need for coordination between public health and emergency medicine planning for infectious disease outbreaks to avoid preventable surges in ED utilization. [source] The mid-season crash in aphid populations: why and how does it occur?ECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 4 2004A. J. Karley Abstract., 1. Aphid populations on agricultural crops in temperature regions collapse over a few days from peak numbers to local extinction soon after mid-summer (e.g. mid-July in the U.K.). The populations recover 6,8 weeks later. There is anecdotal or incidental evidence of an equivalent mid-season population crash of aphids on grasses and forbs in natural vegetation. 2. The ecological factors causing the mid-season population crash of aphids include a decline in plant nutritional quality and increased natural enemy pressure as the season progresses. Extreme weather events, e.g. severe rainstorms, can precipitate the crash but weather conditions are not a consistent contributory factor. 3. The population processes underlying the crash comprise enhanced emigration, especially by alate (winged) aphids, depressed performance resulting in reduced birth rates, and elevated mortality caused by natural enemies. 4. Mathematical models, previously applied to aphid populations on agricultural crops, have great potential for studies of aphid dynamics in natural vegetation. In particular, they can help identify the contribution of various ecological factors to the timing of the population crash and offer explanations for how slow changes in population processes can result in a rapid collapse of aphid populations. [source] Migration strategies of sylviid warblers: chance patterns or community dynamics?JOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2000Peter Howlett The effects of community dynamics in birds on the optimisation of their migratory strategies is a neglected area. For three years, we captured migrating warblers on autumn passage at a coastal site in western Britain. We used canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) to assess spatio-temporal patterns of occurrence, and principal components analysis (PCA) to assess morphological variation. We calculated Euclidean distance in ordination and morphological space to assess separation between species pairs, and used Monte-Carlo simulations to assess the probability of pattern occurring by chance. Ordination revealed five species-groups separated by habitat type and time of passage. Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus and Sedge Warbler A. schoenobaenus (Group 1) occurred in wet habitats and peaked simultaneously. In drier habitats with scrub, a first wave of Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla (Group 2) significantly preceded Grasshopper Warbler Locustella naevia, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, Whitethroat Sylvia communis and Lesser Whitethroat Sylvia curruca (Group 3), which in all but one case (Lesser Whitethroat) significantly preceded Garden Warbler Sylvia borin (Group 4); peak numbers of Chiffchaffs Phylloscopus collybita and a second wave of Blackcaps (Group 5) occurred later still. Age effects were found only in Acrocephalus, with adults peaking before juveniles. For seven out of eight pairings within genera, separation in time of passage increased significantly in species that were morphologically similar. The only exception was Blackcap and Lesser Whitethroat which differed substantially in both passage time and morphology. Monte-Carlo simulations showed that chance was unlikely to be responsible for ordination patterns, nor for inter-specific variation in passage time and its relationship with species morphology. These data provide annually consistent evidence that migrating sylviid warblers are separated ecologically by habitat use, time of passage and morphology: we cannot refute the hypothesis that community dynamics have influenced niche use and autumn migratory strategy. We call for further tests of the ,migrant interaction' hypothesis in other geographical locations and taxa, particularly where migrants are allopatric and interact ecologically only on migration. [source] |