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Observed Values (observed + value)
Selected AbstractsLinked electronic medication systems in community pharmacies for preventing pseudoephedrine diversion: A review of international practice and analysis of results in AustraliaDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 6 2009CONSTANTINE G. BERBATIS Abstract Introduction and Aims. Pseudoephedrine is a precursor often diverted into the illegal manufacture of amphetamine type substances (ATS). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of a linked electronic medication recording system (LEMS) established in Australian pharmacies in 2005 for preventing the diversion of pseudoephedrine. Design and Methods. The number of illegal ATS laboratories detected in each jurisdiction of Australia from 1996,1997 to 2004,2005 were analysed by linear regression nationally and by each jurisdiction. The statistical significance of seizures in 2005,2006 was based on the comparison of the observed value to the 95% prediction confidence intervals calculated from the historical data for each jurisdiction and nationally. Results. Pharmacies in Queensland commenced an LEMS in late 2005 to minimise retail pseudoephedrine diversion. The number of ATS laboratories seized in 2005,2006 in Queensland was significantly lower (P < 0.05) than predicted by historical data. For all other jurisdictions and nationally the totals of laboratories seized in 2005,2006 were not significantly different from predicted values. Discussion and Conclusions. The significant decline in ATS illegal laboratories seized in Queensland in 2005,2006 suggests the effective use of LEMS in pharmacies to minimise pseudoephedrine diversion. In order to evaluate a national LEMS, more frequent data on numbers of linked pharmacies, ATS laboratories seized and indicators of pseudoephedrine sales and misuse are required. Testing the use of LEMS by pharmacies for preventing the diversion of other medicines seems appropriate.[Berbatis CG, Sunderland VB, Dhaliwal SS. Linked electronic medication systems in community pharmacies for preventing pseudoephedrine diversion: A review of international practice and analysis of results in Australia. Drug Alcohol Rev 2009] [source] Nutritional rickets and z scores for height in the United Arab Emirates: To D or not to D?PEDIATRICS INTERNATIONAL, Issue 4 2008Jaishen Rajah Abstract Background: Vitamin D deficiency is still prevalent worldwide, including the Middle East. A cohort of patients with nutritional rickets was treated with vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) alone. After this intervention, patients were followed to document changes in z scores for height after treatment. The secondary aim was to determine the proportion of affected children who had vitamin D deficiency or calcium deficiency. Methods: Z score for height was calculated as the difference between the observed value and the median value, divided by the SD of the population. Z scores were compared in patients before and after treatment. Results: The improvement in z score after treatment was 0.86 ± 0.95. The 95% confidence interval for the mean difference was 1.32,0.40 (t = 3.95, P < 0.001). With a diagnostic cut-off for 25 hydroxyvitamin D3 (25D) deficiency of <25 nmol/L, only half were diagnosed with severe vitamin D deficiency. The remaining patients had presumable calcium deficiency. The alkaline phosphatase (ALP) was negatively correlated to z scores, implying that higher ALP concentrations predicted severe bone disease (lower z scores). The variables 25D and age were moderately and positively correlated (Pearson's r = 0.59, 95%CI: 0.15,0.84; P = 0.01), indicating that younger infants had the lowest 25D levels. Conclusion: Vitamin D alone was efficient in resolving radiological and biochemical disturbances as well as improving z scores for height in a cohort of children with nutritional rickets, which included patients with 25D deficiency as well as calcium deficiency. The results support the hypothesis of the interplay and continuum of 25D deficiency and calcium deficiency in the pathogenesis of rickets. [source] Optimal Valuation of Noisy Real AssetsREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2002Paul D. Childs We study the optimal valuation of real assets when true asset values are unobservable. In our model, the observed value cointegrates with the unobserved true asset value to cause serial correlation in the time series of observed values. Autocorrelation as well as total variance in the observed value are used to calculate an efficient unbiased estimate of the true asset value (the time,filtered value). The optimal value estimate is shown to have three time,weighted terms: a deterministic forward value, a comparison of observed values with previously determined time,filtered values, and a convexity correction for incomplete information. The residual variance measures the precision of the value estimate, which can increase or decrease monotonically over time as well as display a linear or nonlinear time trend. We also show how to revise time,filtered estimates based on the arrival of new information. Our results relate to work on illiquid asset markets, including appraisal smoothing, tests of market efficiency, and the valuation of options on real assets. [source] Effects of operating conditions on particle size in sonocrystallizationASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERING, Issue 4 2010Hussein Oubani Abstract This work presents systematic investigations on sonocrystallization to elucidate the effects of key variables on sonocrystallization product properties. A novel continuous flow sonocrystallization apparatus was used to prepare NaCl microparticles from a NaCl,ethanol,water antisolvent system. By implementing a full factorial experimental design, we investigated the effects of ultrasonic power (75,225 W), antisolvent feed rate (0.5,6.5 l/h), system flow rate (2.8,4.1 l/min) and sonication time (5,30 min) on product crystal size. Data from these experiments were regressed to develop an empirical model that was found to be in agreement with experiments. The model identified the interaction between sonication power and system flow to be rather significant. Model simulations found that particle size decreases when antisolvent feed rate or ultrasonic power increases. This was found to be in contrast to increasing the system flow which resulted in larger particle sizes. The regression model was subsequently used to determine optimal operating conditions that minimize mean size, as smaller sizes are commonly required for pharmaceuticals such as for inhalation particles. These optimal values were found to be as follows: antisolvent flow rate = 6.5 l/h, power ultrasound = 225 W, system flow = 2.8 l/min and sampling time = 15 min. The optimal mean size predicted at these conditions was 28.6 ± 5.7 µm which is very close to the observed value of 27.6 µm. A high-speed camera was used to visualize the ultrasonic irradiation in the sonoreactor and was crucial in explaining the significant interactive effect of sonication power and system flow on crystal size. Copyright © 2010 Curtin University of Technology and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] In Vitro/in Vivo scaling of alprazolam metabolism by CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 in humansBIOPHARMACEUTICS AND DRUG DISPOSITION, Issue 2 2001Noriko Hirota Abstract We attempted to predict the in vivo metabolic clearance of alprazolam from in vitro metabolic studies using human liver microsomes and human CYP recombinants. Good correlations were observed between the intrinsic clearance (CLint) for 4-hydroxylation and CYP3A4 content and between the CLint for ,-hydroxylation and CYP3A5 content in ten human liver microsomal samples. Using the recombinant CYP isoforms expressed in insect cells, the CLint for CYP3A4 was about 2-fold higher than the CLint for CYP3A5 in the case of 4-hydroxylation. However, the CLint for CYP3A5 was about 3-fold higher than the CLint for CYP3A4 in the case of ,-hydroxylation. The metabolic rates for 4- and ,-hydroxylation increased as the added amount of cytochrome b5 increased, and their maximum values were 3- to 4-fold higher than those without cytochrome b5. The values of CLint, in vivo predicted from in vitro studies using human liver microsomes and CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 recombinants were within 2.5 times of the observed value calculated from literature data. The average CLint value (sum of 4- and ,-hydroxylation) obtained using three human liver microsomal samples was 4-fold higher than that obtained using three small intestinal microsomal samples from the same donors, indicating the minor contribution of intestinal metabolism to alprazolam disposition. The area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) of alprazolam is reported to increase following co-administration of ketoconazole and the magnitude of the increase predicted from the in vitroKi values and reported pharmacokinetic parameters of ketoconazole was 2.30,2.45, which is close to the value observed in vivo (3.19). A quantitative prediction of the AUC increase by cimetidine was also successful (1.73,1.79 vs 1.58,1.64), considering the active transport of cimetidine into the liver. In conclusion, we have succeeded in carrying out an in vitro/in vivo scaling of alprazolam metabolism using human liver microsomes and human CYP3A4 and CYP3A5 recombinants. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Chronic kidney disease affects the stone-free rate after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy for proximal ureteric stonesBJU INTERNATIONAL, Issue 8 2010Shun-Fa Hung Study Type , Therapy (case series) Level of Evidence 4 OBJECTIVE To investigate the effect of renal function on the stone-free rate (SFR) of proximal ureteric stones (PUS) after extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL), as urinary obstruction caused by PUS can impair renal function, and elevated serum creatinine levels are associated with decreased ureteric stone passage. PATIENTS AND METHODS From January 2005 to December 2007, 1534 patients had ESWL for urolithiasis, 319 having ESWL in situ for PUS; they were reviewed retrospectively. Patients requiring simultaneous treatment of kidney stones, placement of a double pigtail stent, or percutaneous pigtail nephrostomy tube were excluded. We divided patients into groups by chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage according to the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of ,60 and <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Stone-free status was defined as no visible stone fragments on a plain abdominal film at 3 months after ESWL. A logistic regression model was used to evaluate the possible significant factors that influenced the SFR of PUS after ESWL, and to develop a prediction model. RESULTS The overall SFR of PUS (276/319 patients) was 86.5%; the SFR was 93% in patients with an eGFR of ,60 and 50% in those with an eGFR of <60 (P < 0.001). After univariate and multivariate analysis, the three significant factors affecting SFR were an eGFR of ,60, stone width, and gender, with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 19.54 (8.25,46.30) (P < 0.001), 0.67 (0.55,0.82) (P < 0.001) and 0.16 (0.05,0.50 (P = 0.002), respectively. A logistic regression model was developed to estimate the probability of SFR after ESWL, the equation being 1/(1 + exp [,(3.8137 , 0.3967 × (stone width) + 2.9724 × eGFR , 1.8120 × Male)]), where stone width is the observed value (mm), eGFR = 1 for eGFR ,60 and 0 for <60, and male = 1 for male, 0 for female. CONCLUSIONS Gender, eGFR ,60 and a stone width of >7 mm were significant predictors affecting the SFR after one session of ESWL for PUS. [source] Evaluation of the PESERA model in two contrasting environmentsEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 5 2009F. Licciardello Abstract The performance of the Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA) model was evaluated by comparison with existing soil erosion data collected in plots under different land uses and climate conditions in Europe. In order to identify the most important sources of error, the PESERA model was evaluated by comparing model output with measured values as well as by assessing the effect of the various model components on prediction accuracy through a multistep approach. First, the performance of the hydrological and erosion components of PESERA was evaluated separately by comparing both runoff and soil loss predictions with measured values. In order to assess the performance of the vegetation growth component of PESERA, the predictions of the model based on observed values of vegetation ground cover were also compared with predictions based on the simulated vegetation cover values. Finally, in order to evaluate the sediment transport model, predicted monthly erosion rates were also calculated using observed values of runoff and vegetation cover instead of simulated values. Moreover, in order to investigate the capability of PESERA to reproduce seasonal trends, the observed and simulated monthly runoff and erosion values were aggregated at different temporal scale and we investigated at what extend the model prediction error could be reduced by output aggregation. PESERA showed promise to predict annual average spatial variability quite well. In its present form, short-term temporal variations are not well captured probably due to various reasons. The multistep approach showed that this is not only due to unrealistic simulation of cover and runoff, being erosion prediction also an important source of error. Although variability between the investigated land uses and climate conditions is well captured, absolute rates are strongly underestimated. A calibration procedure, focused on a soil erodibility factor, is proposed to reduce the significant underestimation of soil erosion rates. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Development and field validation of a biotic ligand model predicting chronic copper toxicity to Daphnia magnaENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 6 2004Karel A.C. De Schamphelaere Abstract In this study, we developed a toxicity model predicting the long-term effects of copper on the reproduction of the cladoceran Daphnia magna that is based on previously reported toxicity tests in 35 exposure media with different water chemistries. First, it was demonstrated that the acute copper biotic ligand model (BLM) for D. magna could not serve as a reliable basis for predicting chronic copper toxicity. Consequently, BLM constants for chronic exposures were derived by multiple regression analysis of 21-d median effective concentrations (EC50s; expressed as Cu2+ activity) versus physicochemistry from a large toxicity dataset and the results of an additional experiment in which the individual effect of sodium on copper toxicity was investigated. The effect of sodium on chronic toxicity (log KNaBL = 2.91) seemed to be similar to its effect on acute toxicity (log KNaBL = 3.19). However, in contrast to the acute BLM, no significant calcium, magnesium, or combined competition effect was observed, and an increase in proton competition and bioavailability of CuOH+ and CuCO3 complexes was noted. Some indirect evidence was also found for some limited toxicity of complexes of copper with two of three tested types of dissolved organic matter. Because the latter was only a minor effect, this factor was not included in the chronic Cu BLM. The newly developed model performed well in predicting 21-d EC50s and no-observed-effect concentrations in natural water samples: 79% of the toxicity threshold values were predicted within a factor of two of the observed values. It is clear, however, that more research is needed to provide information on the exact mechanisms that have resulted in different BLM constants for chronic exposures (as opposed to acute exposures). It is suggested that the developed model can contribute to the improvement of risk assessment procedures of copper by incorporating bioavailability of copper in these regulatory exercises. [source] Development and field validation of a predictive copper toxicity model for the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitataENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 10 2003Karel A. C. De Schamphelaere Abstract In this sudy, the combined effects of pH, water hardness, and dissolved organic carbon(DO) concentration and type on the chronic (72-h) effect of copper on growth inhibition of the green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata were investigated. Natural dissolved organic matter (DOM) was collected at three sites in Belgium and The Netherlands using reverse osmosis. A full central composite test design was used for one DOM and a subset of the full design for the two other DOMs. For a total number of 35 toxicity tests performed, 72-h effect concentration resulting in 10% growth inhibition (EbC10s) ranged from 14.2 to 175.9 ,g Cu/L (factor 12) and 72-h EbC50s from 26.9 to 506.8 ,g Cu/L (factor 20). Statistical analysis demonstrated that DOC concentration, DOM type, and pH had a significant effect on copper toxicity; hardness did not affect toxicity at the levels tested. In general, an increase in pH resulted in increased toxicity, whereas an increase of the DOC concentration resulted in decreased copper toxicity. When expressed as dissolved copper, significant differences of toxicity reduction capacity were noted across the three DOM types tested (up to factor 2.5). When expressed as Cu2+ activity, effect levels were only significantly affected by pH; linear relationships were observed between pH and the logarithm of the effect concentrations expressed as free copper ion activity, that is, log(EbC50) and log(EbC10): (1) log(EbC50) = ,1.431 pH + 2.050 (r2 = 0.95), and (2) log(EbC10) = ,1.140 pH , 0.812 (r2 = 0.91). A copper toxicity model was developed by linking these equations to the WHAM V geochemical speciation model. This model predicted 97% of the EbC50dissolved and EbC10dissolved values within a factor of two of the observed values. Further validation using toxicity test results that were obtained previously with copper-spiked European surface waters demonstrated that for 81% of tested waters, effect concentrations were predicted within a factor of two of the observed. The developed model is considered to be an important step forward in accounting for copper bioavailability in natural systems. [source] Global statistical analysis of MISR aerosol data: a massive data product from NASA's Terra satelliteENVIRONMETRICS, Issue 7 2007Tao Shi Abstract In climate models, aerosol forcing is the major source of uncertainty in climate forcing, over the industrial period. To reduce this uncertainty, instruments on satellites have been put in place to collect global data. However, missing and noisy observations impose considerable difficulties for scientists researching the global distribution of aerosols, aerosol transportation, and comparisons between satellite observations and global-climate-model outputs. In this paper, we fit a Spatial Mixed Effects (SME) statistical model to predict the missing values, denoise the observed values, and quantify the spatial-prediction uncertainties. The computations associated with the SME model are linear scalable to the number of data points, which makes it feasible to process massive global satellite data. We apply the methodology, which is called Fixed Rank Kriging (FRK), to the level-3 Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) dataset collected by NASA's Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument flying on the Terra satellite. Overall, our results were superior to those from non-statistical methods and, importantly, FRK has an uncertainty measure associated with it that can be used for comparisons over different regions or at different time points. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Evaluation of six process-based forest growth models using eddy-covariance measurements of CO2 and H2O fluxes at six forest sites in EuropeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2002K. Kramer Abstract Reliable models are required to assess the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. Precise and independent data are essential to assess this accuracy. The flux measurements collected by the EUROFLUX project over a wide range of forest types and climatic regions in Europe allow a critical testing of the process-based models which were developed in the LTEEF project. The ECOCRAFT project complements this with a wealth of independent plant physiological measurements. Thus, it was aimed in this study to test six process-based forest growth models against the flux measurements of six European forest types, taking advantage of a large database with plant physiological parameters. The reliability of both the flux data and parameter values itself was not under discussion in this study. The data provided by the researchers of the EUROFLUX sites, possibly with local corrections, were used with a minor gap-filling procedure to avoid the loss of many days with observations. The model performance is discussed based on their accuracy, generality and realism. Accuracy was evaluated based on the goodness-of-fit with observed values of daily net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (gC m,2 d,1), and transpiration (kg H2O m,2 d,1). Moreover, accuracy was also evaluated based on systematic and unsystematic errors. Generality was characterized by the applicability of the models to different European forest ecosystems. Reality was evaluated by comparing the modelled and observed responses of gross primary production, ecosystem respiration to radiation and temperature. The results indicated that: Accuracy. All models showed similar high correlation with the measured carbon flux data, and also low systematic and unsystematic prediction errors at one or more sites of flux measurements. The results were similar in the case of several models when the water fluxes were considered. Most models fulfilled the criteria of sufficient accuracy for the ability to predict the carbon and water exchange between forests and the atmosphere. Generality. Three models of six could be applied for both deciduous and coniferous forests. Furthermore, four models were applied both for boreal and temperate conditions. However, no severe water-limited conditions were encountered, and no year-to-year variability could be tested. Realism. Most models fulfil the criterion of realism that the relationships between the modelled phenomena (carbon and water exchange) and environment are described causally. Again several of the models were able to reproduce the responses of measurable variables such as gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration and transpiration to environmental driving factors such as radiation and temperature. Stomatal conductance appears to be the most critical process causing differences in predicted fluxes of carbon and water between those models that accurately describe the annual totals of GPP, ecosystem respiration and transpiration. As a conclusion, several process-based models are available that produce accurate estimates of carbon and water fluxes at several forest sites of Europe. This considerable accuracy fulfils one requirement of models to be able to predict the impacts of climate change on the carbon balance of European forests. However, the generality of the models should be further evaluated by expanding the range of testing over both time and space. In addition, differences in behaviour between models at the process level indicate requirement of further model testing, with special emphasis on modelling stomatal conductance realistically. [source] Modelling lake stage and water balance of Lake Tana, EthiopiaHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 25 2009Yirgalem A. Chebud Abstract The level of Lake Tana, Ethiopia, fluctuates annually and seasonally following the patterns of changes in precipitation. In this study, a mass balance approach is used to estimate the hydrological balance of the lake. Water influx from four major rivers, subsurface inflow from the floodplains, precipitation, outflow from the lake constituting river discharge and evapotranspiration from the lake are analysed on monthly and annual bases. Spatial interpolation of precipitation using rain gauge data was conducted using kriging. Outflow from the lake was identified as the evaporation from the lake's surface as well as discharge at the outlet where the Blue Nile commences. Groundwater inflow is estimated using MODular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water FLOW model software that showed an aligned flow pattern to the river channels. The groundwater outflow is considered negligible based on the secondary sources that confirmed the absence of lake water geochemical mixing outside of the basin. Evaporation is estimated using Penman's, Meyer's and Thornwaite's methods to compare the mass balance and energy balance approaches. Meteorological data, satellite images and temperature perturbation simulations from Global Historical Climate Network of National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration are employed for estimation of evaporation input parameters. The difference of the inflow and outflow was taken as storage in depth and compared with the measured water level fluctuations. The study has shown that the monthly and annually calculated lake level replicates the observed values with root mean square error value of 0·17 and 0·15 m, respectively. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling hydrodynamics in Yachiyo Lake using a non-hydrostatic general circulation model with spatially and temporally varying meteorological conditionsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2009Han Soo Lee Abstract In this study, a three-dimensional (3D) non-hydrostatic circulation model was applied to study the thermal structure, its evolution and water circulation of Yachiyo Lake in Hiroshima, Japan. The simulations were conducted for 1 month during July 2006. The meteorological forcing variables such as wind stress, surface atmospheric pressure and heat flux transfer through the lake surface were provided by an atmospheric mesoscale model run. The vertical mixing process of the lake was calculated using the Mellor-Yamada turbulence model. The 1-month numerical simulation revealed the wind-induced currents of the lake, two gyres in the mid-layer, and depth-averaged monthly mean currents. Further numerical experiments studying the mechanism of the two gyres in the lake showed the important role of topography in gyre formation. The thermal structure of the lake and its evolution both in space and in time as predicted by the model showed very good agreement with the observed values and characteristics of Yachiyo Lake. The internal gravity waves, which are crucial for mixing in the stratified lake, are depicted by the vertical fluctuation of isotherms. Using the non-dimensional gradient Richardson number, Yachiyo Lake was determined to be stable under strong stratification during the study period, and therefore very sensitive to wind stress. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Parameter estimation in semi-distributed hydrological catchment modelling using a multi-criteria objective functionHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 22 2007Hamed Rouhani Abstract Output generated by hydrologic simulation models is traditionally calibrated and validated using split-samples of observed time series of total water flow, measured at the drainage outlet of the river basin. Although this approach might yield an optimal set of model parameters, capable of reproducing the total flow, it has been observed that the flow components making up the total flow are often poorly reproduced. Previous research suggests that notwithstanding the underlying physical processes are often poorly mimicked through calibration of a set of parameters hydrologic models most of the time acceptably estimates the total flow. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate a computer-based hydrologic model with respect to the total and slow flow. The quick flow component used in this study was taken as the difference between the total and slow flow. Model calibrations were pursued on the basis of comparing the simulated output with the observed total and slow flow using qualitative (graphical) assessments and quantitative (statistical) indicators. The study was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and a 10-year historical record (1986,1995) of the daily flow components of the Grote Nete River basin (Belgium). The data of the period 1986,1989 were used for model calibration and data of the period 1990,1995 for model validation. The predicted daily average total flow matched the observed values with a Nash,Sutcliff coefficient of 0·67 during calibration and 0·66 during validation. The Nash,Sutcliff coefficient for slow flow was 0·72 during calibration and 0·61 during validation. Analysis of high and low flows indicated that the model is unbiased. A sensitivity analysis revealed that for the modelling of the daily total flow, accurate estimation of all 10 calibration parameters in the SWAT model is justified, while for the slow flow processes only 4 out of the set of 10 parameters were identified as most sensitive. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation of SWAT in a large mountainous catchment with high spatial variabilityHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 5 2006Wenzhi Cao Abstract Many methods developed for calibration and validation of physically based distributed hydrological models are time consuming and computationally intensive. Only a small set of input parameters can be optimized, and the optimization often results in unrealistic values. In this study we adopted a multi-variable and multi-site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Motueka catchment, making use of extensive field measurements. Not only were a number of hydrological processes (model components) in a catchment evaluated, but also a number of subcatchments were used in the calibration. The internal variables used were PET, annual water yield, daily streamflow, baseflow, and soil moisture. The study was conducted using an 11-year historical flow record (1990,2000); 1990,94 was used for calibration and 1995,2000 for validation. SWAT generally predicted well the PET, water yield and daily streamflow. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash,Sutcliffe coefficient of 0·78 during calibration and 0·72 during validation. However, values for subcatchments ranged from 0·31 to 0·67 during calibration, and 0·36 to 0·52 during validation. The predicted soil moisture remained wet compared with the measurement. About 50% of the extra soil water storage predicted by the model can be ascribed to overprediction of precipitation; the remaining 50% discrepancy was likely to be a result of poor representation of soil properties. Hydrological compensations in the modelling results are derived from water balances in the various pathways and storage (evaporation, streamflow, surface runoff, soil moisture and groundwater) and the contributions to streamflow from different geographic areas (hill slopes, variable source areas, sub-basins, and subcatchments). The use of an integrated multi-variable and multi-site method improved the model calibration and validation and highlighted the areas and hydrological processes requiring greater calibration effort. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The generation of monthly gridded datasets for a range of climatic variables over the UKINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2005Matthew Perry Abstract Monthly or annual 5 km × 5 km gridded datasets covering the UK are generated for the 1961,2000 period, for 36 climatic parameters. As well as the usual elements of temperature, rainfall, sunshine, cloud, wind speed, and pressure, derived temperature variables (such as growing-season length, heating degree days, and heat and cold wave durations) and further precipitation variables (such as rainfall intensity, maximum consecutive dry days, and days of snow, hail and thunder) are analysed. The analysis process uses geographical information system capabilities to combine multiple regression with inverse-distance-weighted interpolation. Geographic and topographic factors, such as easting and northing, terrain height and shape, and urban and coastal effects, are incorporated either through normalization with regard to the 1961,90 average climate, or as independent variables in the regression. Local variations are then incorporated through the spatial interpolation of regression residuals. For each of the climatic parameters, the choice of model is based on verification statistics produced by excluding a random set of stations from the analysis for a selection of months, and comparing the observed values with the estimated values at each point. This gives some insight into the significance, direction, and seasonality of factors affecting different climate elements. It also gives a measure of the accuracy of the method at predicting values between station locations. The datasets are being used for the verification of climate modelling scenarios and are available via the Internet. © Crown Copyright 2005. Reproduced with the permission of Her Majesty's Stationery Office. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Predicting time-specific changes in demographic processes using remote-sensing dataJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2006HENRIK B. RASMUSSEN Summary 1Models of wildlife population dynamics are crucial for sustainable utilization and management strategies. Fluctuating ecological conditions are often key factors influencing both carrying capacity, mortality and reproductive rates in ungulates. To be reliable, demographic models should preferably rely on easily obtainable variables that are directly linked to the ecological processes regulating a population. 2We compared the explanatory power of rainfall, a commonly used proxy for variability in ecological conditions, with normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), a remote-sensing index value that is a more direct measure of vegetation productivity, to predict time-specific conception rates of an elephant population in northern Kenya. Season-specific conception rates were correlated with both quality measures. However, generalized linear logistic models compared using Akaike's information criteria showed that a model based on the NDVI measure outperformed models based on rainfall measures. 3A predictive model based on coarse demographic data and the maximum seasonal NDVI value was able to trace the large variation in observed season-specific conception rates (Range 0,0·4), with a low median deviation from observed values of 0·07. 4By combining the model of season-specific conception rates with the average seasonal distribution of conception dates, the monthly number of conceptions (range 0,22) could be predicted within ±3 with 80% confidence. 5Synthesis and applications. The strong predictive power of the normalized differential vegetation index on time-specific variation in a demographic variable is likely to be generally applicable to resource-limited ungulate species occurring in ecologically variable ecosystems, and could potentially be a powerful factor in demographic population modelling. [source] Intramolecular electronic communication in a dimethylaminoazobenzene,fullerene C60 dyad: An experimental and TD-DFT studyJOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL CHEMISTRY, Issue 6 2010K. Senthil Kumar Abstract An electronically push,pull type dimethylaminoazobenzene,fullerene C60 hybrid was designed and synthesized by tailoring N,N -dimethylaniline as an electron donating auxochrome that intensified charge density on the ,-azonitrogen, and on N -methylfulleropyrrolidine (NMFP) as an electron acceptor at the 4 and 4, positions of the azobenzene moiety, respectively. The absorption and charge transfer behavior of the hybrid donor-bridge-acceptor dyad were studied experimentally and by performing TD-DFT calculations. The TD-DFT predicted charge transfer interactions of the dyad ranging from 747 to 601 nm were experimentally observed in the UV-vis spectra at 721 nm in toluene and dichloromethane. A 149 mV anodic shift in the first reduction potential of the NN group of the dyad in comparison with the model aminoazobenzene derivative further supported the phenomenon. Analysis of the charge transfer band through the orbital picture revealed charge displacement from the n(NN) (nonbonding) and , (NN) type orbitals centered on the donor part to the purely fullerene centered LUMOs and LUMO+n orbitals, delocalized over the entire molecule. The imposed electronic perturbations on the aminoazobenzene moiety upon coupling it with C60 were analyzed by comparing the TD-DFT predicted and experimentally observed electronic transition energies of the dyad with the model compounds, NMFP and (E)-N,N -dimethyl-4-(p-tolyldiazenyl)aniline (AZNME). The n(NN) , ,*(NN) and ,(NN) , ,*(NN) transitions of the dyad were bathochromically shifted with a significant charge transfer character. The shifting of ,(NN) , ,*(NN) excitation energy closer to the n , ,*(NN) in comparison with the model aminoazobenzene emphasized the predominant existence of charge separated quinonoid-like ground state electronic structure. Increasing solvent polarity introduced hyperchromic effect in the ,(NN) , ,*(NN) electronic transition at the expense of transitions involved with benzenic states, and the extent of intensity borrowing was quantified adopting the Gaussian deconvolution method. On a comparative scale, the predicted excitation energies were in reasonable agreement with the observed values, demonstrating the efficiency of TD-DFT in predicting the localized and the charge transfer nature of transitions involved with large electronically asymmetric molecules with HOMO and LUMO centered on different parts of the molecular framework. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem, 2010 [source] The importance of growth and mortality costs in the evolution of the optimal life historyJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2006D. A. ROFF Abstract A central assumption of life history theory is that the evolution of the component traits is determined in part by trade-offs between these traits. Whereas the existence of such trade-offs has been well demonstrated, the relative importance of these remains unclear. In this paper we use optimality theory to test the hypothesis that the trade-off between present and future fecundity induced by the costs of continued growth is a sufficient explanation for the optimal age at first reproduction, ,, and the optimal allocation to reproduction, G, in 38 populations of perch and Arctic char. This hypothesis is rejected for both traits and we conclude that this trade-off, by itself, is an insufficient explanation for the observed values of , and G. Similarly, a fitness function that assumes a mortality cost to reproduction but no growth cost cannot account for the observed values of ,. In contrast, under the assumption that fitness is maximized, the observed life histories can be accounted for by the joint action of trade-offs between growth and reproductive allocation and between mortality and reproductive allocation (Individual Juvenile Mortality model). Although the ability of the growth/mortality model to fit the data does not prove that this is the mechanism driving the evolution of the optimal age at first reproduction and allocation to reproduction, the fit does demonstrate that the hypothesis is consistent with the data and hence cannot at this time be rejected. We also examine two simpler versions of this model, one in which adult mortality is a constant proportion of juvenile mortality [Proportional Juvenile Mortality (PJM) model] and one in which the proportionality is constant within but not necessarily between species [Specific Juvenile Mortality (SSJM) model]. We find that the PJM model is unacceptable but that the SSJM model produces fits suggesting that, within the two species studied, juvenile mortality is proportional to adult mortality but the value differs between the two species. [source] A chaos-based iterated multistep predictor for blast furnace ironmaking processAICHE JOURNAL, Issue 4 2009Chuanhou Gao Abstract The prediction and control of the inner thermal state of a blast furnace, represented as silicon content in blast furnace hot metal, pose a great challenge because of complex chemical reactions and transfer phenomena taking place in blast furnace ironmaking process. In this article, a chaos-based iterated multistep predictor is designed for predicting the silicon content in blast furnace hot metal collected from a pint-sized blast furnace. The reasonable agreement between the predicted values and the observed values indicates that the established high dimensional chaotic predictor can predict the evolvement of silicon series well, which conversely render the strong indication of existing deterministic mechanism ruling the dynamics of complex blast furnace ironmaking process, i.e., a high-dimensional chaotic system is suitable for representing the blast furnace system. The results may serve as guidelines for characterizing blast furnace ironmaking process, an extremely complex but fascinating field, with chaos in the future investigation. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J, 2009 [source] Lattice dynamics of tetragonal Nd2BaZnO5JOURNAL OF RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY, Issue 12 2007H. C. Gupta Abstract A short-range force constant model (SRFCM) has been applied to investigate the Raman and the infrared wavenumbers in Nd2BaZnO5 in its tetragonal phase of space group I4/mcm. Calculations of zone-center phonons are made with five stretching and five bending force constants. All the Raman and infrared values are then assigned to their corresponding modes. Two Raman modes are reassigned on the basis of group theoretical calculations. The calculated Raman wavenumbers exhibit good agreement with the observed values. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Lattice dynamic investigation of the Raman and infrared wavenumbers of orthorhombic R2BaNiO5 (R = Y, Gd) oxides in Immm structureJOURNAL OF RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY, Issue 2 2007H. C. Gupta Abstract A short-range force constant model has been applied to investigate the Raman and the infrared wavenumbers in R2BaNiO5 (R = Y, Gd) in their orthorhombic phase of space group Immm. Calculations of zone-center phonons are made with seven stretching and four bending force constants. The force constants are evaluated by fitting nine Raman and two infrared modes. Two Raman modes are reassigned on the basis of group theoretical calculations. The calculated Raman and infrared modes show good agreement with the observed values. The infrared values are assigned for the first time in these oxides. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Lattice dynamic investigation of the Raman and infrared wavenumbers of orthorhombic R2BaCuO5 (R = Y, Ho, Gd) oxidesJOURNAL OF RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY, Issue 1 2005H. C. Gupta Abstract A short-range force constant model was applied for the first time to investigate the Raman and infrared wavenumbers in R2BaCuO5 (R = Y, Ho, Gd) oxides in their orthorhombic phase of space group Pnma. Calculations of zone center phonons were made with 17 stretching and four bending force constants. The force constants were evaluated using the electronegativities and the atomic distances. The calculated values of Raman wavenumbers are in reasonable agreement with the available observed values. The infrared wavenumbers were assigned for the first time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modeling the Ultimate Tensile Strength of Unidirectional Glass-Matrix CompositesJOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN CERAMIC SOCIETY, Issue 1 2000R. E. Dutton The ultimate tensile strengths of a unidirectional glass-matrix composite were measured as a function of fiber volume fraction. The results were compared with predictions, using a refined solution of the stress field generated by an axisymmetric damage model, which incorporated the effect of stress concentration in the fiber caused by the presence of a matrix crack both before and after deflection at the fiber/matrix interface. Two possible locations for the fiber failure were considered: (1) at a transverse matrix crack, near a bonded fiber/coating interface and (2) at the tip of a debond, at the fiber/coating interface. At low fiber volume fractions, the measured ultimate tensile strength matched the prediction calculated, assuming no crack deflection. For higher volume fractions, the predictions calculated for a debonded crack matched the observed values. The model results were relatively insensitive to debond length and interfacial shear stress for the range of values in this study. In comparison, the global load-sharing model, which does not account for the stress singularity at the fiber/matrix interface, was found to overpredict the values of the ultimate tensile strength for all fiber volume fractions. An important contribution of the present work was to introduce the use of fiber volume fraction as a parameter for testing theoretical predictions of the mode of fiber failure. [source] Joint generalized estimating equations for multivariate longitudinal binary outcomes with missing data: an application to acquired immune deficiency syndrome dataJOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY: SERIES A (STATISTICS IN SOCIETY), Issue 1 2009Stuart R. Lipsitz Summary., In a large, prospective longitudinal study designed to monitor cardiac abnormalities in children born to women who are infected with the human immunodeficiency virus, instead of a single outcome variable, there are multiple binary outcomes (e.g. abnormal heart rate, abnormal blood pressure and abnormal heart wall thickness) considered as joint measures of heart function over time. In the presence of missing responses at some time points, longitudinal marginal models for these multiple outcomes can be estimated by using generalized estimating equations (GEEs), and consistent estimates can be obtained under the assumption of a missingness completely at random mechanism. When the missing data mechanism is missingness at random, i.e. the probability of missing a particular outcome at a time point depends on observed values of that outcome and the remaining outcomes at other time points, we propose joint estimation of the marginal models by using a single modified GEE based on an EM-type algorithm. The method proposed is motivated by the longitudinal study of cardiac abnormalities in children who were born to women infected with the human immunodeficiency virus, and analyses of these data are presented to illustrate the application of the method. Further, in an asymptotic study of bias, we show that, under a missingness at random mechanism in which missingness depends on all observed outcome variables, our joint estimation via the modified GEE produces almost unbiased estimates, provided that the correlation model has been correctly specified, whereas estimates from standard GEEs can lead to substantial bias. [source] Fragmentation model of meteoroid motion, mass loss, and radiation in the atmosphereMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 1 2005k CEPLECHA We solve them numerically including two possible types of fragmentation: into large pieces and into a cluster of small fragments. We have written a Fortran code that computes the motion, ablation and light intensity of a meteoroid at chosen heights, and allows for the ablation and shape density coefficients , and K, as well as the luminous efficiency ,, to be variable with height/time. We calibrated our fragmentation model (FM) by the best fit to observational values for the motion, ablation, radiation, fragmentation and the terminal masses (recovered meteorites) for the Lost City bolide. The FM can also handle multiple and overlapping meteor flares. We separately define both the apparent and intrinsic values of ,, K, and ,. We present in this paper values of the intrinsic luminous efficiency as function of velocity, mass, and normalized air density. Detailed results from the successful application of the FM to the Lost City, Innisfree, and Benesov bolides are also presented. Results of applying the FM to 15 bolides with very precise observational data are presented in a survey mode (Table 7). Standard deviations of applying our FM to all these events correspond to the precision of the observed values. Typical values of the intrinsic ablation coefficient are low, mostly in the range from 0.004 to 0.008 s2 km,2, and do not depend on the bolide type. The apparent ablation coefficients reflect the process of fragmentation. The bolide types indicate severity of the fragmentation process. The large differences of the "dynamic" and "photometric" mass from numerous earlier studies are completely explained by our FM. The fragmentation processes cannot be modeled simply by large values of the apparent ablation coefficient and of the apparent luminous efficiency. Moreover, our new FM can also well explain the radiation and full dynamics of very fast meteoroids at heights from 200 km to 130 km. [source] Isolation and characterization of polymorphic microsatellite loci in the raccoon (Procyon lotor)MOLECULAR ECOLOGY RESOURCES, Issue 1 2008C. SIRIPUNKAW Abstract We report the isolation and characterization of 17 polymorphic microsatellite loci in the North American raccoon (Procyon lotor). These loci exhibit high levels of allelic diversity, with between four and 13 alleles per locus, and heterozygosity, with observed values of 0.500,1.000 in a sample of 20 individuals. All genotypes conformed to Hardy,Weinberg expectations and there were no instances of linkage disequilibrium detected. [source] Estimation of Carboxylic Acid Ester Hydrolysis Rate ConstantsMOLECULAR INFORMATICS, Issue 9-10 2003H. Hilal Abstract SPARC chemical reactivity models were extended to calculate hydrolysis rate constants for carboxylic acid esters from molecular structure. The energy differences between the initial state and the transition state for a molecule of interest are factored into internal and external mechanistic perturbation components. The internal perturbations quantify the interactions of the appended perturber (P) with the reaction center (C). These internal perturbations are factored into SPARC's mechanistic components of electrostatic and resonance effects. External perturbations quantify the solute-solvent interactions and are factored into H-bonding, field stabilization and steric effects. These models have been tested using 1471 measured hydrolysis rate constants in water and mixed-solvent systems at different temperatures. The aggregate RMS deviation of the calculated versus observed values was 0.374,M,1s,1; close to the intralaboratory experimental error. [source] The Monitor project: the search for transits in the open cluster NGC 2362MONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 1 2008Adam A. Miller ABSTRACT We present the results of a systematic search for transiting planets in a ,5 Myr open cluster, NGC 2362. We observed ,1200 candidate cluster members, of which ,475 are believed to be genuine cluster members, for a total of ,100 h. We identify 15 light curves with reductions in flux that pass all our detection criteria, and six of the candidates have occultation depths compatible with a planetary companion. The variability in these six light curves would require very large planets to reproduce the observed transit depth. If we assume that none of our candidates are, in fact, planets then we can place upper limits on the fraction of stars with hot Jupiters (HJs) in NGC 2362. We obtain 99 per cent confidence upper limits of 0.22 and 0.70 on the fraction of stars with HJs (fp) for 1,3 and 3,10 d orbits, respectively, assuming all HJs have a planetary radius of 1.5RJup. These upper limits represent observational constraints on the number of stars with HJs at an age ,10 Myr, when the vast majority of stars are thought to have lost their protoplanetary discs. Finally, we extend our results to the entire Monitor project, a survey searching young, open clusters for planetary transits, and find that the survey as currently designed should be capable of placing upper limits on fp near the observed values of fp in the solar neighbourhood. [source] Triggered star formation in bright-rimmed clouds: the Eagle nebula revisitedMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 1 2006J. Miao ABSTRACT A three-dimensional smoothed particle hydrodynamics model has been extended to study the radiation-driven implosion effect of massive stars on the dynamical evolution of surrounding molecular clouds. The new elements in the upgraded code are the inclusion of Lyman continuum in the incident radiation flux and the treatment of hydrogen ionization process; the introduction of ionization heating and recombination cooling effects; and the addition of a proper description of the magnetic and turbulent pressures to the internal pressure of the molecular cloud. This extended code not only provides a realistic model to trace the dynamical evolution of a molecular cloud, but also can be used to model the kinematics of the ionization and shock fronts and the photoevaporating gas surrounding the molecular cloud, which the previous code is unable to handle. The application of this newly developed model to the structure of the middle Eagle nebula finger suggests that the shock induced by the ionizing radiation at the front side of the head precedes an ionization front moving towards the centre of the core, and that the core at the fingertip is at a transition stage evolving toward a state of induced star formation. The dynamical evolution of the velocity field of the simulated cloud structure is discussed to illustrate the role of the self-gravity and the different cloud morphologies which appear at different stages in the evolutionary process of the cloud. The motion of the ionization front and the evaporating gas are also investigated. The modelled gas evaporation rate is consistent with that of other current models and the density, temperature and chemical profiles are in agreement with the observed values. The relative lifetimes of different simulated cloud morphologies suggest a possible answer to the question of why more bright-rimmed clouds are observed to possess a flat-core than an elongated-core morphology. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||