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Observational Uncertainties (observational + uncertainty)
Selected AbstractsA Bayesian approach to estimating tectonic stress from seismological dataGEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 3 2007Richard Arnold SUMMARY Earthquakes are conspicuous manifestations of tectonic stress, but the non-linear relationships between the stresses acting on a fault plane, its frictional slip, and the ensuing seismic radiation are such that a single earthquake by itself provides little information about the ambient state of stress. Moreover, observational uncertainties and inherent ambiguities in the nodal planes of earthquake focal mechanisms preclude straightforward inferences about stress being drawn on the basis of individual focal mechanism observations. However, by assuming that each earthquake in a small volume of the crust represents a single, uniform state of stress, the combined constraints imposed on that stress by a suite of focal mechanism observations can be estimated. Here, we outline a probabilistic (Bayesian) technique for estimating tectonic stress directions from primary seismological observations. The Bayesian formulation combines a geologically motivated prior model of the state of stress with an observation model that implements the physical relationship between the stresses acting on a fault and the resultant seismological observation. We show our Bayesian formulation to be equivalent to a well-known analytical solution for a single, errorless focal mechanism observation. The new approach has the distinct advantage, however, of including (1) multiple earthquakes, (2) fault plane ambiguities, (3) observational errors and (4) any prior knowledge of the stress field. Our approach, while computationally demanding in some cases, is intended to yield reliable tectonic stress estimates that can be confidently compared with other tectonic parameters, such as seismic anisotropy and geodetic strain rate observations, and used to investigate spatial and temporal variations in stress associated with major faults and coseismic stress perturbations. [source] Observations of 433 Eros from 1.25 to 3.35 micronsMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 12 2001A. S. Rivkin As expected, Eros shows no evidence of an absorption feature >5% in the 3 ,m region, and is interpreted to have an anhydrous surface within observational uncertainties. Our observations in the JHK region agree with previous work by Chapman and Morrison (1976) and Murchie and Pieters (1996), but differ from the near-infrared spectrometer spectra reported by Clark et al. (2001). Our calculations indicate that thermal flux from Eros is not responsible for this mismatch. [source] Revisiting two local constraints of the Galactic chemical evolutionMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 4 2006M. Haywood ABSTRACT I review the uncertainties in two observational local constraints of the Galactic disc chemical evolution: the metallicity distribution of long-lived dwarfs and the age,metallicity relation. Analysing most recent data, it is shown first that the observed metallicity distribution at solar galactocentric radius, designed with standard methods, is more fit to a closed-box model than to the infall metallicity distribution. We argue that this is due to the specific contribution of the thick-disc population, which has been overlooked both in the derivation of the observed metallicity distribution and in the standard chemical evolution models. Although this agreement disqualifies the metallicity distribution as the best supportive (indirect) evidence for infall, we argue that the evolution must be more complex than described by either the closed-box or the standard infall models. It is then shown that recent determinations of the age,metallicity distribution (AMD) from large Strömgren photometric surveys are dominated by noise resulting from systematic biases in metallicities and effective temperatures. These biases are evaluated and a new AMD is obtained, where particularities of the previous determinations are phased out. The new age,metallicity relation shows a mean increase limited to about a factor of 2 in Z over the disc age. It is shown that below 3 Gyr, the dispersion in metallicity is about 0.1 dex, which, given the observational uncertainties in the derived metallicities, is compatible with the small cosmic dispersion measured on the interstellar medium and meteoritic pre-solar dust grains. A population that is progressively older and more metal rich arises at a metallicity greater than that of the Hyades, to reach [Fe/H],+0.5 dex at ages greater than 5 Gyr. We suggest that this is best explained by radial migration. A symmetrical widening of the metallicity interval towards lower values is seen at about the same age, which is attributed to a similar cause. Finally, the new derived ages are sufficiently consistent that an age,metallicity relation within the thick disc is confirmed. These new features altogether draw a picture of the chemical evolution in the solar neighbourhood where dynamical effects and complexity in the AMD dominate, rather than a generalized high dispersion at all ages. [source] A comparison of DA white dwarf temperatures and gravities from Lyman and Balmer line studiesMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 1 2001M.A. Barstow We present measurements of the effective temperatures and surface gravities for a sample of hot DA white dwarfs, using the Lyman line data available from the HUT, ORFEUS and FUSE FUV space missions. Comparing the results with those from the standard Balmer line technique, we find that there is a general good overall agreement between the two methods. However, significant differences are found for a number of stars, but not always of a consistent nature in that sometimes the Balmer temperature exceeds that derived from the Lyman lines and in other instances it is lower. We conclude that, with the latest model atmosphere calculations, these discrepancies probably do not arise from an inadequate theoretical treatment of the Lyman lines but rather from systematic effects in the observation and data reduction processes, which dominate the statistical errors in these spectra. If these systematic data reduction effects can be adequately controlled, the Lyman line temperature and gravity measurements are consistent with those obtained from the Balmer lines when allowance is made for reasonable observational uncertainties. [source] Measuring forecast skill: is it real skill or is it the varying climatology?THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 621C 2006Thomas M. Hamill Abstract It is common practice to summarize the skill of weather forecasts from an accumulation of samples spanning many locations and dates. In calculating many of these scores, there is an implicit assumption that the climatological frequency of event occurrence is approximately invariant over all samples. If the event frequency actually varies among the samples, the metrics may report a skill that is different from that expected. Many common deterministic verification metrics, such as threat scores, are prone to mis-reporting skill, and probabilistic forecast metrics such as the Brier skill score and relative operating characteristic skill score can also be affected. Three examples are provided that demonstrate unexpected skill, two from synthetic data and one with actual forecast data. In the first example, positive skill was reported in a situation where metrics were calculated from a composite of forecasts that were comprised of random draws from the climatology of two distinct locations. As the difference in climatological event frequency between the two locations was increased, the reported skill also increased. A second example demonstrates that when the climatological event frequency varies among samples, the metrics may excessively weight samples with the greatest observational uncertainty. A final example demonstrates unexpectedly large skill in the equitable threat score of deterministic precipitation forecasts. Guidelines are suggested for how to adjust skill computations to minimize these effects. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | |||||||||||||