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Northern Britain (northern + britain)
Selected AbstractsLocal extent of old-growth woodland modifies epiphyte response to climate changeJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2009Christopher J. Ellis Abstract Aim, To quantify the interaction between climate and woodland continuity in determining the bioclimatic response of lichen epiphytes. Location, Northern Britain (Scotland). Methods, Indicator-species analysis was used to pre-select lichen epiphytes along parallel gradients in climate and the extent of old-growth woodland. Nonparametric multiplicative regression was used to describe in a predictive model the individualistic response of selected species, which were projected based on climate-change scenarios and contrasting patterns of simulated woodland loss or gain. Species with a similar response were grouped using a novel application of cluster analysis to summarize the potentially huge number of projected outcomes. Projected patterns of occurrence under climate-change scenarios were examined for different levels of old-growth woodland extent. Results, Forty-two lichen species were statistically significant indicator species in oceanic woodlands, and old-growth indicators under suboptimal climatic conditions. Responses to climate-change scenarios were contrasting, with one group comprising species projected to increase in extent in response to climate warming, and other response groups projected to decrease in occurrence, possibly in response to shifting rainfall patterns. The occurrence of all response groups had a positive relationship with old-growth woodland extent. Main conclusions, An ,oceanic' biogeographical group of epiphytes identified using the baseline climatic and present-day woodland setting comprised species with a cyanobacterial photobiont or tropical phytogeographical affinities. However, within this group the individual species responses to climate-change scenarios were contrasting. Additionally, group responses may be poorly matched with simple ecological traits. However, the studied interaction between climate and habitat continuity suggests that the impact of climate change might be offset for certain lichen epiphytes by appropriate management of woodland resources, for example, expansion of native woodland around remnant old-growth stands. [source] Dependence between extreme sea surge, river flow and precipitation in eastern BritainINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2002Cecilia Svensson Abstract Flooding in estuaries may be caused by both high river flows and by high sea levels. In order to investigate whether these tend to occur simultaneously in eastern Britain, the dependence between high sea surge (observed sea level minus predicted astronomical tide), river flow and precipitation was studied using a measure of dependence specially developed for extremal dependence. Extreme events were interpreted using meteorological maps. This new analysis found that the strongest flow,surge dependence occurs between river flow on the north shore of the Firth of Forth and sea surge at Aberdeen, Wick and Lerwick. In contrast to most other catchments in eastern Britain, the area to the north of the Firth of Forth is not sheltered from south-westerly winds by any major topographical barrier. Therefore, precipitation from this direction may be orographically enhanced as it encounters the hills on the northern side of the firth, and high river flows may ensue. Events resulting in both high river flow and surge in the northern part of the study area were found to be caused by cyclones travelling north-eastward to the north of Scotland. High surge events, only, were associated with similar storm tracks, but without much precipitation from the fronts. High river flows, only, were associated with rain-bearing east,west-directed fronts over northern Britain, with slow-moving depressions located over or to the west of the British Isles where they are unable to generate a strong surge in the North Sea. The dependence between river flow and surge was found to be stronger during winter than summer, and a lagged analysis revealed that the dependence is strongest when flow and surge occur on the same day, but was also strong for lags of plus and minus 1 day. For precipitation, the dependence with both flow and surge is strongest when precipitation precedes them by 1 day. Copyright © 2002 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Climate change may account for the decline in British ring ouzels Turdus torquatusJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2006COLIN M. BEALE Summary 1Climate change is already affecting biodiversity, but the number of species for which reliable models relate weather and climate to demographic parameters is low. 2We modelled the effect of temperature and rainfall on the breeding success and territory occupancy of ring ouzels Turdus torquatus (L.) in northern Britain, using data from a range of study areas, including one where there was a long-term decline in ring ouzel abundance. 3Timing of breeding was significantly related to meteorological variables affecting birds in the early spring, though there was no evidence that laying dates had advanced. Breeding success was not significantly related to weather variables; instead, over 90% of annual variation in this parameter could be explained by density dependence. 4Annual change in territory occupancy was linked to rainfall and temperature the preceding summer, after the main breeding season and to rainfall in the wintering grounds 24 months previously, coincident with the period of juniper Juniperus sp. (L.) flowering. High temperature in late summer, intermediate levels of late summer rainfall, and high spring rainfall in Morocco 24 months previously all had negative impacts on territory occupancy the following year. 5All three weather variables have changed over recent decades, with a significant increase in summer temperature, a significant decrease in summer rainfall, and a nonsignificant decline in Moroccan spring rainfall. A model based on these trends alone predicted an annual decline in occupancy of 3·6% (compared with an observed decline of 1·2%), and suggested that increased summer temperatures may underlie declines in the British ring ouzel population. 6Changes in summer temperature after the main breeding period could affect the survival rates of adult and/or juvenile birds. An improved understanding of the post-breeding ecology of ring ouzels is required to elucidate the mechanisms and causes of this relationship. Such knowledge might allow management aimed at buffering the impacts of climate change on ring ouzels. [source] Relative sea-level observations in western Scotland since the Last Glacial Maximum for testing models of glacial isostatic land movements and ice-sheet reconstructions,JOURNAL OF QUATERNARY SCIENCE, Issue 6 2006Ian Shennan Abstract Observations of relative sea-level change and local deglaciation in western Scotland provide critical constraints for modelling glacio-isostatic rebound in northern Britain over the last 18,000 years. The longest records come from Skye, Arisaig and Knapdale with a shorter, Holocene, record from Kintail. Biostratigraphic (diatom, pollen, dinoflagellate, foraminifera and thecamoebian), lithological and radiocarbon analyses provide age and elevation parameters for each sea-level index point. All four sites reveal relative sea-level change that is highly non-monotonic in time as the local vertical component of glacio-isostatic rebound and eustasy (or global meltwater influx) dominate at different periods. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 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