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North Atlantic Oscillation (north + atlantic_oscillation)
Terms modified by North Atlantic Oscillation Selected AbstractsClimatic influence on the inter-annual variability of late-Holocene minerogenic sediment supply in a boreal forest catchmentEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 4 2010Gunilla Petterson Abstract Processes controlling sediment yield vary over a range of timescales, although most process-based observations are extremely short. Lake sediments, however, can be used to extend the observational timescale and are particularly useful when annually laminated (varved) sediment is present. The sediment record at Kassjön (N. Sweden) consists of ,6400 varves, each 0·5,1 mm thick. Image analysis was used to determine grey-scale variation and varve thickness from which annual minerogenic accumulation rate (MinAR) (mg cm,2 year,1) was inferred for the period 4486 BC , AD 1900. MinAR varies on annual to centennial scales and mainly reflects channel bank erosion by the inflow streams. The mineral input reflects the intensity of the spring run-off, which is dependent on the amount of snow accumulated during the winter, and hence MinAR is a long-term record of variability in past winter climate; other factors will be a variable response to catchment uplift, vegetation succession and pedogenesis. A major shift from low to high MinAR occurred ,250 BC, and peaks occurred around AD 250, 600, 1000, 1350 and 1650. Wavelet power spectrum analysis (confirmed by Fourier analyses) indicated significantly different periodicities throughout the period 4000 BC , AD 1700, including 275 years for the period 4000 BC , 2900 BC, 567 years for the period 2901 BC , 1201 BC, and 350 and 725 years for the period 1200 BC , AD 1700. The long-term, centennial scale variability (,350 years) may reflect solar forcing (cf the 385-year peak in tree-ring calibrated 14C activity) but interestingly, there is no obvious link to high frequency forcing, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. The high resolution component of the record highlights the relevance of varved lake sediment records for understanding erosion dynamics in undisturbed forested catchments and their link to long-term climate dynamics and future climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on growth and phenology of stream insectsECOGRAPHY, Issue 6 2004Robert A. Briers Climatic variation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influences terrestrial and marine ecosystems, but its effects on river and stream ecosystems are less well known. The influence of the NAO on the growth of stream insects was examined using long-term empirical data on the sizes of mayfly and stonefly nymphs and on water temperature data. Models of egg development and nymphal growth in relation to temperature were used to predict the effect of the NAO on phenology. The study was based in two upland streams in mid-Wales UK that varied in the extent of plantation forestry in their catchments. Winter stream temperatures at both sites were positively related to the winter NAO index, being warmer in positive phases and colder in negative phases. The observed mean size and the simulated developmental period of mayfly nymphs were significantly related to the winter NAO index, with nymphs growing faster in positive phases of the NAO, but the growth of stonefly nymphs was not related to the NAO. This may have been due to the semivoltine stonefly lifecycle, but stonefly nymph growth is also generally less dependent on temperature. There were significant differences in growth rates of both species between streams, with nymphs growing more slowly in the forested stream that was consistently cooler than the open stream. Predicted emergence dates for adult mayflies varied by nearly two months between years, depending on the phase of the NAO. Variation in growth and phenology of stream insects associated with the NAO may influence temporal fluctuations in the composition and dynamics of stream communities. [source] Atlantic climatic factors control decadal dynamics of a Baltic Sea copepod Temora longicornisECOGRAPHY, Issue 5 2003Jari Hänninen We discovered, using transfer functions, that climatic changes in the Atlantic control the abundance of Temora longicornis, a dominant pelagic copepod of the Baltic Sea. The seawater salinity was increasing and copepod numbers were high from 1960s up to 1970s. Then the freshwater runoff started to increase, which resulted in decreasing salinities and abundance of the copepod. At the end of 1990s, runoffs remained at a high level, and the decrease of surface salinities and Temora leveled off. Due to time lags between variables studied, we also make predictions of changes expectable in early 2000s. The total freshwater runoff to the Baltic Sea followed the North Atlantic Oscillation with an immediate lag. Salinity followed the runoff non-linearly with a lag of 4,9 months. Temora longicornis followed the salinity with a lag of 1,3 months. Predicted abundance of T. longicornis will remain low implicating poor feeding conditions for planktivores. Our study points out the importance of physical factors in control of pelagic environments compared to ecological interactions, such as top-down and bottom-up. [source] Temporal dynamics within a contemporary latitudinal diversity gradientECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 9 2008Jonathan A. D. Fisher Abstract Poleward declines in species diversity [latitudinal diversity gradients (LDG)] remain among the oldest and most widespread of macroecological patterns. However, their contemporary dynamics remain largely unexplored even though changing ecological conditions, including global change, may modify LDG and their respective ecosystems. Here, we examine temporal variation within a temperate Northwest Atlantic LDG using 31 years of annual fisheries-independent surveys and explore its dynamics in relation to a dominant climate signal [the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)] that varies interannually and alters the latitudinal gradient of Northwest Atlantic continental shelf bottom water temperatures. We found that the slopes of the annual LDG vary dramatically due to changes in geographic distributions of 100+ species, variations that are concealed within the cumulative, static LDG. These changes are strongly associated with changes in NAO sign and strength. This is the first illustration of temporal dynamics in a contemporary LDG and the first demonstration of the speed at which local environmental variations can alter an LDG. Our findings underscore the need to investigate factors that modify LDG separately from those that contribute to their origins. [source] CLIMATIC AND TEMPORAL EFFECTS ON THE EXPRESSION OF SECONDARY SEXUAL CHARACTERS: GENETIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL COMPONENTSEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2004Dany Garant Abstract Despite great interest in sexual selection, relatively little is known in detail about the genetic and environmental determinants of secondary sexual characters in natural populations. Such information is important for determining the way in which populations may respond to sexual selection. We report analyses of genetic and large-scale environmental components of phenotypic variation of two secondary sexual plumage characters (forehead and wing patch size) in the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis over a 22-year period. We found significant heritability for both characters but little genetic covariance between the two. We found a positive association between forehead patch size and a large-scale climatic index, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, but not for wing patch. This pattern was observed in both cross-sectional and longitudinal data suggesting that the population response to NAO index can be explained as the result of phenotypic plasticity. Heritability of forehead patch size for old males, calculated under favorable conditions (NAO index median), was greater than that under unfavorable conditions (NAO index < median). These changes occurred because there were opposing changes in additive genetic variance (VA) and residual variance (VR) under favorable and unfavorable conditions, with VA increasing and VR decreasing in good environments. However, no such effect was detected for young birds, or for wing patch size in either age class. In addition to these environmental effects on both phenotypic and genetic variances, we found evidence for a significant decrease of forehead patch size over time in older birds. This change appears to be caused by a change in the sign of viability selection on forehead patch size, which is associated with a decline in the breeding value of multiple breeders. Our data thus reveal complex patterns of environmental influence on the expression of secondary sexual characters, which may have important implications for understanding selection and evolution of these characters. [source] Mechanistic links between climate and fisheries along the east coast of the United States: explaining population outbursts of Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus)FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 1 2007JONATHAN A. HARE Abstract Climate has been linked to variation in marine fish abundance and distribution, but often the mechanistic processes are unknown. Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) is a common species in estuarine and coastal areas of the mid-Atlantic and southeast coasts of the U.S. Previous studies have identified a correlation between Atlantic croaker abundance and winter temperatures in Chesapeake Bay, and have determined thermal tolerances of juveniles. Here we re-examine the hypothesis that winter temperature variability controls Atlantic croaker population dynamics. Abundance indices were analyzed at four life history stages from three regions along the east coast of the U.S. Correlations suggest that year-class strength is decoupled from larval supply and is determined by temperature-linked, overwinter survival of juveniles. Using a relation between air and water temperatures, estuarine water temperature was estimated from 1930 to 2002. Periods of high adult catch corresponded with warm winter water temperatures. Prior studies indicate that winter temperature along the east coast is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); variability in catch is also correlated with the NAO, thereby demonstrating a link between Atlantic croaker dynamics, thermal limited overwinter survival, and the larger climate system of the North Atlantic. We hypothesize that the environment drives the large-scale variability in Atlantic croaker abundance and distribution, but fishing and habitat loss decrease the resiliency of the population to periods of poor environmental conditions and subsequent weak year classes. [source] Climate change and abundance of the Atlantic-Iberian sardine (Sardina pilchardus)FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 2 2004C. Guisande Abstract Climatic warming is affecting oceanic circulation patterns in coastal upwelling areas, but the impact of this climatic change on pelagic fish populations remains unclear. From juvenile landings collected over 38 years, the thresholds of environmental factors were determined that limited the optimal environmental window (OEW) for sardine (Sardina pilchardus recruitment success in the northwestern Iberian peninsula. The environmental factors considered were: water column stability in February, offshore water transport in March,April (QxMA), upwelling intensity in the preceding year from May to August (QxMJJA), and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. From 1875 to the mid-1920s, the mean number of years within the OEW was relatively constant. However, since the mid-1920s, there have been oscillations and alternating decades with high and low number of years within the OEW, which were related to oscillations in sardine landings. From 1906 to 2000, there were four record, low sardine catches in the 1920s, 1950s, 1970s and 1990s, related to a high number of successive years with prevailing conditions out of the OEW. From 1875 to the present, a high year-to-year variation of the NAO, QxMJJA and water stability in February was observed, although with mean values usually within the OEW. The collapse in the 1950s was related, partly, to successive years with low QxMJJA. Successive years with high NAO values may be related to the collapse of the sardine fishery in the 1990s. QxMA has been the most significant factor controlling SRS in this area, being the factor related to the low catches observed in the 1920s, 1950s and 1970s. Water stability was not responsible for any of the collapses observed, but since the 1920s, there has been a significant trend toward decreasing water column stability before the onset of the spring bloom. [source] Factors influencing the temporal coherence of five lakes in the English Lake DistrictFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2000D. G. George 1. The lakes in the Windermere catchment are all deep, glacial lakes but they differ in size, shape and general productivity. Here, we examine the extent to which year-to-year variations in the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of these lakes varied synchronously over a 30,40-year period. 2. Coherence was estimated by correlating time-series of the spring, summer, autumn and winter characteristics of five lakes: Esthwaite Water, Blelham Tarn, Grasmere and the North and South Basins of Windermere. Three physical, four chemical and two biological time-series were analysed and related to year-to-year variations in a number of key driving variables. 3. The highest levels of coherence were recorded for the physical and chemical variables where the average coherence was 0.81. The average coherence for the biological variables was 0.11 and there were a number of significant negative relationships. The average coherence between all possible lake pairs was 0.59 and average values ranged from 0.50 to 0.74. A graphical analysis of these results demonstrated that the coherence between individual lake pairs was influenced by the relative size of the basins as well as their trophic status. 4. A series of examples is presented to demonstrate how a small number of driving variables influenced the observed levels of coherence. These range from a simple example where the winter temperature of the lakes was correlated with the climatic index known as the North Atlantic Oscillation, to a more complex example where the summer abundance of zooplankton was correlated with wind-mixing. 5. The implications of these findings are discussed and a conceptual model developed to illustrate the principal factors influencing temporal coherence in lake systems. The model suggests that our ability to detect temporal coherence depends on the relative magnitude of three factors: (a) the amplitude of the year-to-year variations; (b) the spatial heterogeneity of the driving variables and (c) the error terms associated with any particular measurement. [source] Re-Dating the Moraines at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull using different Lichenometric Methods: Implications for the Timing of the Icelandic Little Ice Age MaximumGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2004Krista M. Mckinzey Abstract Little Ice Age (LIA) moraines along the margins of Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull, two neighbouring outlet glaciers flowing from the Vatnajökull ice-cap, have been re-dated to test the reliability of different lichenometric approaches. During 2003, 12 000 lichens were measured on 40 moraine fragments at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull to provide surface age proxies. The results are revealing. Depending on the chosen method of analysis, Skálafellsjökull either reached its LIA maximum in the early 19th century (population gradient) or the late 19th century (average of five largest lichens), whereas the LIA maximum of Heinabergsjökull occurred by the mid-19th century (population gradient) or late-19th century (average of 5 largest lichens). Discrepancies (c. 80 years for Skálafellsjökull and c. 40 years for Heinabergsjökull) suggest that the previously cited AD 1887 LIA maxima for both glaciers should be reassessed. Dates predicted by the lichen population gradient method appear to be the most appropriate, as mounting evidence from other geochronological reconstructions and sea-ice records throughout Iceland tends to support an earlier LIA glacier maximum (late 18th to mid-19th century) and probably reflects changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. These revised chronologies shed further light on the precise timing of the Icelandic LIA glacier maximum, whilst improving our understanding of glacier-climate interactions in the North Atlantic. [source] Are local weather, NDVI and NAO consistent determinants of red deer weight across three contrasting European countries?GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2009MARÍA MARTÍNEZ-JAUREGUI Abstract There are multiple paths via which environmental variation can impact herbivore ecology and this makes the identification of drivers challenging. Researchers have used diverse approaches to describe the association between environmental variation and ecology, including local weather, large-scale patterns of climate, and satellite imagery reflecting plant productivity and phenology. However, it is unclear to what extent it is possible to find a single measure that captures climatic effects over broad spatial scales. There may, in fact, be no a priori reason to expect populations of the same species living in different areas to respond in the same way to climate as their population may experience limiting factors at different times of the year, and the forms of regulation may differ among populations. Here, we examine whether the same environmental indices [seasonal Real Bioclimatic Index (RBI), seasonal Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)] influence body size in different populations of a large ungulate living in Mediterranean Spain, Western Scotland and Norway. We found substantial differences in the pattern of weight change over time in adult female red deer among study areas as well as different environmental drivers associated with variation in weight. The lack of general patterns for a given species at a continental scale suggest that detailed knowledge regarding the way climate affects local populations is often necessary to successfully predict climate impact. We caution against extrapolation of results from localized climate,population studies to broad spatial scales. [source] Large-scale climatic signatures in lakes across Europe: a meta-analysisGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2007THORSTEN BLENCKNER Abstract Recent studies have highlighted the impact of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on water temperature, ice conditions, and spring plankton phenology in specific lakes and regions in Europe. Here, we use meta-analysis techniques to test whether 18 lakes in northern, western, and central Europe respond coherently to winter climate forcing, and to assess the persistence of the winter climate signal in physical, chemical, and biological variables during the year. A meta-analysis approach was chosen because we wished to emphasize the overall coherence pattern rather than individual lake responses. A particular strength of our approach is that time-series from each of the 18 lakes were subjected to the same robust statistical analysis covering the same 23-year period. Although the strongest overall coherence in response to the winter NAO was exhibited by lake water temperatures, a strong, coherent response was also exhibited by concentrations of soluble reactive phosphorus and soluble reactive silicate, most likely as a result of the coherent response exhibited by the spring phytoplankton bloom. Lake nitrate concentrations showed significant coherence in winter. With the exception of the cyanobacterial biomass in summer, phytoplankton biomass in all seasons was unrelated to the winter NAO. A strong coherence in the abundance of daphnids during spring can most likely be attributed to coherence in daphnid phenology. A strong coherence in the summer abundance of the cyclopoid copepods may have been related to a coherent change in their emergence from resting stages. We discuss the complex nature of the potential mechanisms that drive the observed changes. [source] Climate change effects on upland stream macroinvertebrates over a 25-year periodGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2007ISABELLE DURANCE Abstract Climate change effects on some ecosystems are still poorly known, particularly where they interact with other climatic phenomena or stressors. We used data spanning 25 years (1981,2005) from temperate headwaters at Llyn Brianne (UK) to test three hypotheses: (1) stream macroinvertebrates vary with winter climate; (2) ecological effects attributable to directional climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are distinguishable and (3) climatic effects on macroinvertebrates depend on whether streams are impacted by acidification. Positive (i.e. warmer, wetter) NAO phases were accompanied by reduced interannual stability (=similarity) in macroinvertebrate assemblage in all streams, but associated variations in composition occurred only in acid moorland. The NAO and directional climate change together explained 70% of interannual variation in temperature, but forest and moorland streams warmed respectively by 1.4 and 1.7°C (P<0.001) between 1981 and 2005 after accounting for NAO effects. Significant responses among macroinvertebrates were confined to circumneutral streams, where future thermal projections (+1, +2, +3°C) suggested considerable change. Spring macroinvertebrate abundance might decline by 21% for every 1°C rise. Although many core species could persist if temperature gain reached 3°C, 4,10 mostly scarce taxa (5,12% of the species pool) would risk local extinction. Temperature increase in Wales approaches this magnitude by the 2050s under the Hadley HadCM3 scenarios. These results support all three hypotheses and illustrate how headwater stream ecosystems are sensitive to climate change. Altered composition and abundance could affect conservation and ecological function, with the NAO compounding climate change effects during positive phases. We suggest that acidification, in impacted streams, overrides climatic effects on macroinvertebrates by simplifying assemblages and reducing richness. Climatic processes might, nevertheless, exacerbate acidification or offset biological recovery. [source] Contrasting responses of migration strategies in two European thrushes to climate changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2007PHILIPPE RIVALAN Abstract Migration is a widespread strategy that enables animals to escape harsh winter conditions. It has been well documented that migration phenology in birds is changing in response to recent climate warming in the northern hemisphere. Despite the existence of large temporal and geographical scale ringing data on birds in Europe, changes in migration strategies in relation to climate warming have not been well studied, mainly because of a lack of appropriate statistical methods. In this paper, we develop a method that enables us to investigate temporal changes in migration strategies from recoveries of dead ringed birds. We estimated migration probability as the ratio between recovery probabilities of conspecific birds originating from different countries but potentially wintering in the same country. We applied this method to two European thrushes: the entirely migrant redwing Turdus iliacus, and the partially migrant blackbird T. merula. We tested for an immediate and a 1-year lagged relationship between our migration probability and climatic covariates (i.e. mean winter temperature in France and the North Atlantic Oscillation). Using ringing-recovery data collected in Finland, Germany, Switzerland and France from 1970 to 1999, we detected contrasting responses in these two species, likely related to their different migratory behaviours. Both species showed a decline in the probability for northern and eastern birds to winter in France. The entirely migratory redwing exhibited a year-to-year plastic response to climate, whereas the decline in the partially migrant blackbird was smooth, suggesting underlying genetic processes. The proposed method, thus, allows us to identify useful indicators of climatic impacts on migration strategies, as well as highlighting differences between closely related species. [source] Lagged effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Homoptera) abundance and survivalGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 12 2006ANTTI HALKKA Abstract The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a large-scale pattern of climate variability that has been shown to have important ecological effects on a wide spectrum of taxa. Studies on terrestrial invertebrates are, however, lacking. We studied climate-connected causes of changes in population sizes in island populations of the spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (L.) (Homoptera). Three populations living in meadows on small Baltic Sea islands were investigated during the years 1970,2005 in Tvärminne archipelago, southern Finland. A separate analysis was done on the effects of NAO and local climate variables on spittlebug survival in 1969,1978, for which survival data existed for two islands. We studied survival at two stages of the life cycle: growth rate from females to next year's instars (probably mostly related to overwintering egg survival), and survival from third instar stage to adult. The latter is connected to mortality caused by desiccation of plants and spittle masses. Higher winter NAO values were consistently associated with smaller population sizes on all three islands. Local climate variables entering the most parsimonious autoregressive models of population abundance were April and May mean temperature, May precipitation, an index of May humidity, and mean temperature of the coldest month of the previous winter. High winter NAO values had a clear negative effect on late instar survival in 1969,1978. Even May,June humidity and mean temperature of the coldest month were associated with late instar survival. The climate variables studied (including NAO) had no effect on the growth rate from females to next year's instars. NAO probably affected the populations primarily in late spring. Cold and snowy winters contribute to later snow melt and greater spring humidity in the meadows. We show that winter NAO has a considerable lagged effect on April and May temperature; even this second lagged effect contributes to differences in humidity. The lagged effect of the winter NAO to spring temperatures covers a large area in northern Europe and has been relatively stationary for 100 years at least in the Baltic area. [source] Reassessing the impact of North Atlantic Oscillation on the sub-Saharan vegetation productivityGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2003GUILING WANG Abstract The Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been shown to have a significant impact on the terrestrial ecosystem in the Sahelian region of Africa during the 1980s, and it has been strongly suggested that NAO may be a reliable predictor for the response of the Sahelian ecosystem to global climate variability. Using data from an extended period, we provide a reassessment for the impact of NAO on the Sahelian climate and ecosystem, and show that there is no consistent relationship between NAO and the ecosystem over Sahel. Statistical analysis on the NAO, vegetation, and precipitation data indicates that NAO influences the Sahelian vegetation productivity exclusively through its impact on precipitation. However, the relationship between the NAO index and Sahelian precipitation varies substantially with time. The correlation coefficient fluctuates between positive and negative values, and does not pass the 5% significance test during most of the twentieth century. The NAO system, although documented to govern the ecosystem dynamics over many other regions, does not have a consistent impact on the ecosystem over the Sahel. Therefore, the NAO index cannot produce a useful prediction on the ecosystem variability and changes in this region. This study provides an example that correlations based on short climate and ecological records (less than 20 years in this case) can be spurious and potentially misleading. [source] Sub-saharan desertification and productivity are linked to hemispheric climate variabilityGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2001Gufu Oba Summary Vegetation productivity and desertification in sub-Saharan Africa may be influenced by global climate variability attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Combined and individual effects of the NAO and ENSO indices revealed that 75% of the interannual variation in the area of Sahara Desert was accounted for by the combined effects, with most variance attributable to the NAO. Effects were shown in the latitudinal variation on the 200 mm isocline, which was influenced mostly by the NAO. The combined indices explained much of the interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Sahelian zone and southern Africa, implying that both the NAO and ENSO may be useful for monitoring effects of global climate change in sub-Saharan Africa. [source] Winter rain on snow and its association with air temperature in northern EurasiaHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 15 2008Hengchun Ye Abstract This study examines the characteristics of winter (Dec,Feb) rain-on-snow events and their relationship to surface air temperatures to reveal potential changes in rain-on-snow days under a warming climate over northern Eurasia. We found that rain-on-snow events mostly occur over European Russia during winter. Rain-on-snow days increase as air temperature increases and are primarily attributable to the increase in rainfall days. Air temperature is the primary cause for these changes, while the North Atlantic Oscillation has some influence on the rain on snow and rainfall over the northern part of European Russia. The magnitude of rain-on-snow increase ranges from 0·5 day to 2·5 days per degree Celsius increase in air temperature. Higher rates of increase in rain-on-snow days occur in the northern and eastern parts of European Russia where the air temperature is lower, in contrast to rainfall days which have higher rates at locations with higher air temperatures. This suggests that a decrease in snowfall days might be limiting the rate of increase in rain-on-snow events over warmer regions where the temperature is about , 8 °C or higher. This study also implies that rain-on-snow days will become more common over regions in which it is currently a rare event as air temperatures increase. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Rainfall patterns and critical values associated with landslides in Povoação County (São Miguel Island, Azores): relationships with the North Atlantic OscillationHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 4 2008Rui Marques Abstract São Miguel Island (Azores) has been affected by hundreds of destructive landslide episodes in the last five centuries, triggered either by earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or rainfall episodes, which were responsible for many deaths and very important economic losses. Among the instability causes, meteorological factors are of primary importance on Povoação County, namely the high recurrence rate of calamitous rainfall triggering landslides. The most recent catastrophic episode took place on the 31st October 1997 when almost 1000 soil slips and debris flows were triggered, and 29 people died in the Ribeira Quente village. The role of rainfall on regional landslide activity was analysed applying cumulative rainfall methods. The method comprises the reconstruction of both absolute and calibrated antecedent rainfalls associated with each major landslide event. The critical rainfall combination (amount-duration) responsible for each landslide event was assessed and a rainfall critical threshold for landslide occurrence was calculated. Rainfall-triggered landslides in the study area are ruled by the function I = 144·06 D,0·5551, and they are related both to short duration precipitation events (1,3 days) with high average intensity (between 78 and 144 mm/day) and long-lasting rainfall episodes (1,5 months) with a lower intensity (between 9 and 22 mm/day). The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the regional precipitation regime was evaluated. It is shown that the monthly precipitation of São Miguel is largely modulated by the NAO mode presenting a significant negative correlation with the NAO index. This result arises from the NAO control on the travelling latitude of most storm tracks that cross the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The influences of the Southern and North Atlantic Oscillations on climatic surface variables in TurkeyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 6 2005M. Ça, atay Karabörk Abstract In this study, Turkish climatic variables (precipitation, stream flow and maximum and minimum temperatures) were first analysed in association with both the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The relationships between Turkish maximum and minimum monthly temperatures and the extreme phases of the SO (El Niño and La Niña events) were examined. The results of this analysis showed that relationships between Turkish monthly maximum temperatures and El Niño and La Niña contain some complexity still to be identified, because both events produce a signal indicating a correspondence with cold anomalies in the aggregate composites. A relationship between turkish minimum temperatures and El Niño was detected in western Anatolia, whereas there was no significant and consistent signal associated with La Niña. Moreover a series of cross-correlation analyses was carried out to demonstrate the teleconnections between the climatic variables and both the NAO and SO. The NAO during winter was found to influence precipitation and stream-flow patterns. In contrast temperature patterns appeared to be less sensitive to the NAO. Furthermore, lag-correlation results indicated a prediction potential for both precipitation and stream-flow variables in connection with the NAO. Simultaneous and time-lag correlations between the climatic variables and the SO index, in general, indicated weaker relationships in comparison with those for the NAO. These analyses also showed that the influences of the SO on Turkish temperature data are negligible. The outcomes were presented in conjunction with an explanation regarding physical mechanisms behind the implied teleconnections. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The challenges of conservation for declining migrants: are reserve-based initiatives during the breeding season appropriate for the Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca?IBIS, Issue 3 2009ANNE E. GOODENOUGH Creating conservation policies for declining migrant species in response to global change presents a considerable challenge. Migrant species are affected by factors at breeding grounds, overwintering areas and during migration. Accordingly, reserve-based management during the breeding season is not always a suitable conservation strategy. Recent Pied Flycatcher population decline typifies the pattern for many migrants. The UK population has declined by 43% in the past decade, but explanations, and possible solutions, remain elusive. We use 15 years of data (1990,2004) from a declining British population to establish possible reasons for decline, considering: (1) breeding performance (including the influences of competition and predation); (2) weather patterns caused by the winter phase (December,March) of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which modify conditions experienced at wintering grounds and on migration; and (3) possible impacts of climate change on spring temperatures. We conclude that decreasing breeding performance is contributing to decline, but that non-breeding factors are more important. Winter NAO index is a strong predictor of breeding population, probably because it influences food abundance in Africa and at migratory stopover points. Importantly, however, year itself enhances the predictive model, indicating that influences on population remain unaccounted for by current research. Management strategies based on increasing breeding productivity cannot fully address population decline because non-breeding factors appear important. However, as breeding performance is declining, breeding-based strategies remain useful conservation tools. To this end, our research indicates that optimal placement of nestboxes as regards orientation and habitat management to increase larval food supplies could increase productivity significantly. [source] European snow cover extent variability and associations with atmospheric forcingsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2010Gina R. Henderson Abstract Snow cover in Europe represents an important component of the region's climatic system. Variability in snow cover extent can have major implications on factors such as low-level atmospheric temperatures, soil temperatures, soil moisture, stream discharge, and energy allocation involved in the warming and melting of the snowpack. The majority of studies investigating Northern Hemisphere snow cover identify European snow cover extent as a portion of the Eurasian record, possibly masking complexities of this subset. This study explores the variability of European snow cover extent from 1967,2007, with the region in question including the area of Europe extending eastward to the Ural Mountains (60°E). Using the 89 × 89 gridded National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Northern Hemisphere weekly satellite snow cover product, area estimates of seasonal snow cover were calculated, and their relationship to gridded temperature, precipitation, and sea-level pressure data analysed. The spatial variability of snow cover extent was also explored using geographical information systems (GIS). The combined results from both surface temperature and precipitation analyses point towards snow cover extent in Europe being primarily temperature dependent. Atmospheric variables associated with extremes in snow cover extent were investigated. Large (small) European snow extent is associated with negative (positive) 850 hPa zonal wind anomalies, negative (positive) European 1000,500 hPa thickness anomalies, and generally positive (negative) Northern European precipitation anomalies. Sea-level pressure and 500 hPa results indicate strong associations between large (small) snow cover seasons and the negative (positive) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Air temperature impacts over Eastern North America and Europe associated with low-frequency North Atlantic SST variabilityINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 1 2009Anthony Arguez Abstract Air temperature anomalies over eastern North America and Europe are analysed during the extreme phases of the two leading low-frequency modes of North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) during the 1906,2005 period. The leading mode of SST is a multi-decadal signal,commonly referred to as the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation,with uniform polarity over the North Atlantic. Air temperature anomalies over the eastern United States and Northern Europe during extreme phases of this mode are of the same sign as the corresponding SST anomalies. The most intense air temperature impacts occur in summer months. The second mode exhibits considerable spectral energy in the quasi-decadal (,12 year) range. The spatial signature and associated air temperature anomalies of mode 2 are strongly correlated with both SST and land temperature impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The North Atlantic Oscillation and European vegetation dynamicsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2008Célia Gouveia Abstract The relationship between vegetation greenness and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is assessed over Europe. The study covers the 21-year period from 1982 to 2002 and is based on monthly composites of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Brightness Temperature from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling System (GIMMS) as well as on monthly precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC). A systematic analysis is first performed of point correlation fields over the 21-year period between the winter NAO index and spring and summer NDVI, followed by an assessment of the vegetation response to precipitation and temperature conditions in winter, over two contrasting regions, namely the Iberian Peninsula and Northeastern Europe. Finally, the impact of NAO on vegetation dynamics over the two regions is evaluated by studying the corresponding annual cycles of NDVI and comparing their behaviour for years associated with opposite NAO phases. Over the Iberian Peninsula there is strong evidence that positive (negative) values of winter NAO induce low (high) vegetation activity in the following spring and summer seasons. This feature is mainly associated with the impact of NAO on winter precipitation, together with the strong dependence of spring and summer NDVI on water availability during the previous winter. Northeastern Europe shows a different behaviour, with positive (negative) values of winter NAO inducing high (low) values of NDVI in spring, but low (high) values of NDVI in summer. This behaviour mainly results from the strong impact of NAO on winter temperature, associated with the critical dependence of vegetation growth on the combined effect of warm conditions and water availability during the winter season. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] On ENSO impacts on European wintertime rainfalls and their modulation by the NAO and the Pacific multi-decadal variability described through the PDO indexINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 8 2008Davide Zanchettin Abstract While strong relationships have previously been established between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and climate variability in many parts of the world, previous analyses of ENSO impacts on European rainfalls have been variable and inconclusive. In this paper, the role and apparent interactions of a range of known teleconnections are assessed. It is shown that ENSO events do indeed appear to impact European rainfalls and that these impacts are likely to also depend on the concurrent state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In particular, it is demonstrated that ENSO impacts most significantly on European wintertime rainfalls during positive (warm) phases of the PDO. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Identification of large scale climate patterns affecting snow variability in the eastern United StatesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 3 2008Jennifer Morin Abstract This study investigates dominant patterns of snow variability and their relationship to large-scale climate circulations over the eastern half of the United States. Two snowfall variables,total seasonal snowfall (TSF) and number of snow days (NSD),are examined. A principal components (PC) analysis is conducted on data from 124 snowfall stations. The leading mode of variability for both TSF and NSD is driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The secondary mode of variability for TSF is driven by the Pacific/North American pattern (PNA), while the secondary mode of variability for NSD is driven by a dipole pattern and is attributable to regional influences and noise. These patterns exhibit persistence, which provides prospects for seasonal predictions of snowfall variables. This research compliments and extends the work of Serreze et al(1998), who performed a PC analysis of geopotential heights during the winter season and correlated the spatial patterns of the leading modes of variability with seasonal snowfall values. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Weather regimes and sea surge variations over the Gulf of Lions (French Mediterranean coast) during the 20th centuryINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 2 2008A. Ullmann Abstract Hourly sea surge variations observed at three tide-gauge stations (Grau-de-la-Dent(GD) located in the Rhône Delta, Sète(SE), and Port-Vendres(PV)) around the Gulf of Lions are strongly correlated during the wintertime period (October to March) of 1986-1995. Relationships between the early morning (6 a.m. UTC) sea surge observed at Grau-de-la-Dent station and five weather regimes,Zonal (ZO), East-Atlantic (EA), Greenland Above (GA), Blocking (BL), and Atlantic Ridge (AR),over the northeast Atlantic and Europe (40°W,40°E, 30 ,70°N) are analysed during the wintertime period of 1905-2002. More than 75% of sea surges , 40 cm occur during both of the weather regimes associated with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) phase (41.2 and 34% during BL and GA weather regimes, respectively), ahead of low pressure travelling usually southeastward, on a stormtrack shifted south of 55°N. The relationships between monthly/seasonal frequency of weather regime and 75th percentile of sea surge at GD tend to strengthen during the 20th century: for example, correlation between seasonal frequencies of GA and 75th percentile of sea surge increases from 0.07 (not significant) in 1905,40 to 0.83 (signifiicant at the one-sided 99% level) in 1974,2002. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Intercomparison of global cloud cover fields over oceans from the VOS observations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysisINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2007Ernst Bedacht Abstract The paper inter-compares the total cloud cover over the World Ocean from marine visual observations assimilated in the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and National Centers of Environmental Prediction/National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis. The Intercomparison covers the period from 1948 to 2002. NCEP-NCAR reanalysis shows about 10% of fractional cloud cover smaller than the visual observations do. The largest differences are observed in the mid and sub-polar latitudes. In the tropics, NCEP-NCAR data show slightly higher cloud cover then ICOADS. These systematic differences are quite persistent through the year with somewhat stronger differences in summer. Comparison of the characteristics of inter-annual variability shows little consistency between visually observed total cloud cover and total cloudiness diagnosed by the reanalysis. Linear trends are primarily positive in the ICOADS cloud data, while in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis they show downward trends in the tropics and upward tendencies in the mid and high latitudes. Analysis of the effect of sampling in ICOADS shows that sampling inhomogeneity cannot fully explain the disagreements observed. At the same time, the major climate variability patterns such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El-Nino,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are well captured in both ICOADS and NCEP-NCAR cloud cover data sets. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Winter snow depth variability over northern Eurasia in relation to recent atmospheric circulation changesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 13 2007V. Popova Abstract Mean snow depth time-series for February (1936,2001) over northern Eurasia (incl. Norway, Finland and the former USSR), interpolated into 5 × 5° grid points, are studied using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. First, five statistically significant rotated PCs are correlated to Northern Hemisphere (NH) teleconnection patterns at the 700 hPa height: North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Polar-Eurasia (Pol), Pacific-North American (PNA), West Pacific (WP), and Scandinavia (Scand). The impact of the NH circulation modes on snow depth variations is evaluated using the multiple stepwise backward regression (MSBR). Analyses of the snow depth PCs indicate that within the northern Eurasia territory, there are several regions with snow accumulation, respondent to certain circulation modes. PC1 describes low-frequency snow depth variation to the north from 55 to 60°N between the White Sea and the Lena river basin, and is positively correlated with NAO and negatively,with Scand. MSBR shows that in 1951,1974 the leading role in snow depth variability belongs to Scand. After 1975, Scand has passed over the leading role to NAO. Scand and NAO are also responsible for the surface air temperature changes over the northern Eurasia. Snow depth PC1 and wintertime temperature are closely related to each other. PC2 describes quasi-decadal snow depth variability over eastern Europe and is negatively correlated with NAO. For the Baltic and White Sea coasts, Fennoscandia, and the center of the East European plain, decrease of snow accumulation, related to a positive NAO phase, seems to be caused by mild winters. For the southwestern and central regions of eastern Europe, negative snow depth anomalies could also be caused by decrease of precipitation associated with the eastward shift of cyclone tracks related to the positive NAO phase. Two regions, where snow depth variations are described by PC1 and PC2, respectively, reveal the border between the opposite recent tendencies of snow accumulation. Copyright © 2007 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Predictions of future climate change in the caribbean region using global general circulation modelsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2007Moises E. Angeles Abstract Since the 1800s the global average CO2 mixing ratio has increased and has been related to increases in surface air temperature (0.6 ± 0.2 °C) and variations in precipitation patterns among other weather and climatic variables. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS), according to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are likely to be among the most seriously impacted regions on Earth by global climate changes. In this work, three climate change scenarios are investigated using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to study the impact of the global anthropogenic CO2 concentration increases on the Caribbean climate. A climatological analysis of the Caribbean seasonal climate variation was conducted employing the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the Xie,Arkin precipitation and the Reynolds,Smith Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observed data. The PCM is first evaluated to determine its ability to predict the present time Caribbean climatology. The PCM tends to under predict the SSTs, which along with the cold advection controls the rainfall variability. This seems to be a main source of bias considering the low model performance to predict rainfall activity over the Central and southern Caribbean. Future predictions indicate that feedback processes involving evolution of SST, cloud formation, and solar radiative interactions affect the rainfall annual variability simulated by PCM from 1996 to 2098. At the same time two large-scale indices, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are strongly related with this rainfall annual variability. A future climatology from 2041 to 2058 is selected to observe the future Caribbean condition simulated by the PCM. It shows, during this climatology range, a future warming of approximately 1 °C (SSTs) along with an increase in the rain production during the Caribbean wet seasons (early and late rainfall seasons). Although the vertical wind shear is strengthened, it typically remains lower than 8 m/s, which along with SST > 26.5 °C provides favorable conditions for possible future increases in tropical storm frequency. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Interannual variability of the tropical Atlantic independent of and associated with ENSO: Part I. The North Tropical AtlanticINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 14 2006Itsuki C. Handoh Abstract The interannual variability of the tropical Atlantic ocean,atmosphere system is examined using 50 years of sea-surface temperature (SST) and re-analysis data, and satellite data when available. A singular value decomposition analysis of 12- to 72-month bandpass filtered SST and zonal wind stress reveals two dominant modes of interannual variability. The SST anomalies are confined to the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) in the first mode and extend over the equatorial and South Tropical Atlantic in the second mode. No evidence is found for an Atlantic SST dipole. The structure of the first (NTA) mode is examined in detail here, while the second mode has been described in a companion paper. In particular, the relationship of the NTA mode with El Niño,Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. There are 12 NTA events (seven warm and five cold) that are associated with ENSO, and 18 NTA events (seven warm and 11 cold) that are independent of ENSO. The ENSO-associated NTA events appear to be a passive response to remote ENSO forcing, mainly via a Pacific-North America (PNA)-like wave train that induces SST anomalies over the NTA through changes in the surface wind and latent heat flux. The NTA anomalies peak four months after ENSO. There does not appear to be an atmospheric response to the NTA SST anomalies as convection over the Atlantic is suppressed by the anomalous Walker circulation due to ENSO. The ENSO-independent NTA events also appear to be induced by an extratropical wave train from the Pacific sector (but one that is independent of Pacific SST), and forcing by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also contributes. As the event matures, the atmosphere does respond to the NTA SST anomalies, with enhanced convection over the Caribbean and a wave train that propagates northeastward to Europe. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||