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Natural Unemployment Rate (natural + unemployment_rate)
Selected AbstractsCOPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY*THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2009GEORGE CHOULIARAKIS The paper derives and compares historical and real-time estimates of the UK natural unemployment rate and shows that real-time estimates are fraught with noise and should be treated with scepticism. A counterfactual exercise shows that, for most of the 1990s, the Bank of England tracked changes in the natural rate relatively successfully, albeit with some recognition lag which, at times, might have led to excessively cautious policy. A careful scrutiny of the minutes of the monetary policy committee meetings reveals that such ,cautiousness' should be taken as evidence of awareness of the real-time informational limitations that monetary policy is facing. [source] Volatility, Stabilization and Union Wage-setting: The Effects of Monetary Policy on the ,Natural' Unemployment RateECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 1 2002Luigi Bonatti In a unionized economy with nominal-wage contracts, the ,natural' (rational-expectations equilibrium) employment level is not invariant with respect to the stabilization rule followed by the monetary authority. This is because alternative monetary policies change the variance of the inflation rate (price level) relatively to the variance of some measure of economic activity (employment level), thereby influencing the trade-off desired by union members between the real wage and the probability of employment. Indeed, a more volatile employment level induces the (risk-neutral) union members to prefer a higher expected real wage. (J.E.L: E5, J5). [source] An Empirical Analysis of Inflation in OECD CountriesINTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 1 2004Jane Ihrig During the 1990s, many OECD countries had declining rates of inflation while their unemployment rates were also falling, something that on the surface seemed at odds with the Phillips curve relationship between inflation and unemployment. For the USA, these seemingly contradictory developments have been reconciled in terms of two factors: (1) an acceleration in productivity and (2) structural changes in labour markets that lowered the natural unemployment rate (NAIRU). Here we ask whether comparable forces were at work in 19 other industrial countries. We find that productivity advancements were the main structural factor reducing inflation only in the USA. In other industrial countries, persistent labour-market slack was the main factor exerting downward pressure on inflation. This persistence stemmed, in part, from structural reforms that lowered the NAIRU while the unemployment rate was declining. Ireland, New Zealand and Norway were three countries where labour-market reforms helped to push inflation down dramatically. [source] COPING WITH UNCERTAINTY: HISTORICAL AND REAL-TIME ESTIMATES OF THE NATURAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE UK MONETARY POLICY*THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2009GEORGE CHOULIARAKIS The paper derives and compares historical and real-time estimates of the UK natural unemployment rate and shows that real-time estimates are fraught with noise and should be treated with scepticism. A counterfactual exercise shows that, for most of the 1990s, the Bank of England tracked changes in the natural rate relatively successfully, albeit with some recognition lag which, at times, might have led to excessively cautious policy. A careful scrutiny of the minutes of the monetary policy committee meetings reveals that such ,cautiousness' should be taken as evidence of awareness of the real-time informational limitations that monetary policy is facing. [source] | ||||||||||