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Natural Selection (natural + selection)
Kinds of Natural Selection Selected AbstractsNATURAL SELECTION ALONG AN ENVIRONMENTAL GRADIENT: A CLASSIC CLINE IN MOUSE PIGMENTATIONEVOLUTION, Issue 7 2008Lynne M. Mullen We revisited a classic study of morphological variation in the oldfield mouse (Peromyscus polionotus) to estimate the strength of selection acting on pigmentation patterns and to identify the underlying genes. We measured 215 specimens collected by Francis Sumner in the 1920s from eight populations across a 155-km, environmentally variable transect from the white sands of Florida's Gulf coast to the dark, loamy soil of southeastern Alabama. Like Sumner, we found significant variation among populations: mice inhabiting coastal sand dunes had larger feet, longer tails, and lighter pigmentation than inland populations. Most striking, all seven pigmentation traits examined showed a sharp decrease in reflectance about 55 km from the coast, with most of the phenotypic change occurring over less than 10 km. The largest change in soil reflectance occurred just south of this break in pigmentation. Geographic analysis of microsatellite markers shows little interpopulation differentiation, so the abrupt change in pigmentation is not associated with recent secondary contact or reduced gene flow between adjacent populations. Using these genetic data, we estimated that the strength of selection needed to maintain the observed distribution of pigment traits ranged from 0.0004 to 21%, depending on the trait and model used. We also examined changes in allele frequency of SNPs in two pigmentation genes, Mc1r and Agouti, and show that mutations in the cis -regulatory region of Agouti may contribute to this cline in pigmentation. The concordance between environmental variation and pigmentation in the face of high levels of interpopulation gene flow strongly implies that natural selection is maintaining a steep cline in pigmentation and the genes underlying it. [source] HAMILTON'S FORCES OF NATURAL SELECTION AFTER FORTY YEARSEVOLUTION, Issue 6 2007Michael R. Rose In 1966, William D. Hamilton published a landmark paper in evolutionary biology: "The Moulding of Senescence by Natural Selection." It is now apparent that this article is as important as his better-known 1964 articles on kin selection. Not only did the 1966 article explain aging, it also supplied the basic scaling forces for natural selection over the entire life history. Like the Lorentz transformations of relativistic physics, Hamilton's Forces of Natural Selection provide an overarching framework for understanding the power of natural selection at early ages, the existence of aging, the timing of aging, the cessation of aging, and the timing of the cessation of aging. His twin Forces show that natural selection shapes survival and fecundity in different ways, so their evolution can be somewhat distinct. Hamilton's Forces also define the context in which genetic variation is shaped. The Forces of Natural Selection are readily manipulable using experimental evolution, allowing the deceleration or acceleration of aging, and the shifting of the transition ages between development, aging, and late life. For these reasons, evolutionary research on the demographic features of life history should be referred to as "Hamiltonian." [source] NATURAL SELECTION ON A POLYMORPHIC DISEASE-RESISTANCE LOCUS IN IPOMOEA PURPUREAEVOLUTION, Issue 2 2007Joel M. Kniskern Although disease-resistance polymorphisms are common in natural plant populations, the mechanisms responsible for this variation are not well understood. Theoretical models predict that balancing selection can maintain polymorphism within a population if the fitness effects of a resistance allele vary from a net cost to a net benefit, depending upon the extent of pathogen damage. However, there have been a few attempts to determine how commonly this mechanism operates in natural plant,pathogen interactions. Ipomoea purpurea populations are often polymorphic for resistance and susceptibility alleles at a locus that influences resistance to the fungal pathogen, Coleosporium ipomoeae. We measured the fitness effects of resistance over three consecutive years at natural and manipulated levels of damage to characterize the type of selection acting on this locus. Costs of resistance varied in magnitude from undetectable to 15.5%, whereas benefits of resistance sometimes equaled, but never exceeded, these costs. In the absence of net benefits of resistance at natural or elevated levels of disease, we conclude that selection within individual populations of I. purpurea probably does not account completely for maintenance of this polymorphism. Rather, the persistence of this polymorphism is probably best explained by a combination of variable selection and meta-population processes. [source] ECOLOGICAL AND DEVELOPMENTAL CONTEXT OF NATURAL SELECTION: MATERNAL EFFECTS AND THERMALLY INDUCED PLASTICITY IN THE FROG BOMBINA ORIENTALISEVOLUTION, Issue 1 2006Robert H. Kaplan Abstract Variation in fitness generated by differences in functional performance can often be traced to morphological variation among individuals within natural populations. However, morphological variation itself is strongly influenced by environmental factors (e.g., temperature) and maternal effects (e.g., variation in egg size). Understanding the full ecological context of individual variation and natural selection therefore requires an integrated view of how the interaction between the environment and development structures differences in morphology, performance, and fitness. Here we use naturally occurring environmental and maternal variation in the frog Bombina orientalis in South Korea to show that ovum size, average temperature, and variance in temperature during the early developmental period affect body sizes, shapes, locomotor performance, and ultimately the probability of an individual surviving interspecific predation in predictable but nonadditive ways. Specifically, environmental variability can significantly change the relationship between maternal investment in offspring and offspring fitness so that increased maternal investment can actually negatively affect offspring over a broad range of environments. Integrating environmental variation and developmental processes into traditional approaches of studying phenotypic variation and natural selection is likely to provide a more complete picture of the ecological context of evolutionary change. [source] AN EXACT FORM OF THE BREEDER'S EQUATION FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A QUANTITATIVE TRAIT UNDER NATURAL SELECTIONEVOLUTION, Issue 11 2005John S. Heywood Abstract Starting with the Price equation, I show that the total evolutionary change in mean phenotype that occurs in the presence of fitness variation can be partitioned exactly into five components representing logically distinct processes. One component is the linear response to selection, as represented by the breeder's equation of quantitative genetics, but with heritability defined as the linear regression coefficient of mean offspring phenotype on parent phenotype. The other components are identified as constitutive transmission bias, two types of induced transmission bias, and a spurious response to selection caused by a covariance between parental fitness and offspring phenotype that cannot be predicted from parental phenotypes. The partitioning can be accomplished in two ways, one with heritability measured before (in the absence of) selection, and the other with heritability measured after (in the presence of) selection. Measuring heritability after selection, though unconventional, yields a representation for the linear response to selection that is most consistent with Darwinian evolution by natural selection because the response to selection is determined by the reproductive features of the selected group, not of the parent population as a whole. The analysis of an explicitly Mendelian model shows that the relative contributions of the five terms to the total evolutionary change depends on the level of organization (gene, individual, or mated pair) at which the parent population is divided into phenotypes, with each frame of reference providing unique insight. It is shown that all five components of phenotypic evolution will generally have nonzero values as a result of various combinations of the normal features of Mendelian populations, including biparental sex, allelic dominance, inbreeding, epistasis, linkage disequilibrium, and environmental covariances between traits. Additive genetic variance can be a poor predictor of the adaptive response to selection in these models. The narrow-sense heritability s,2A/s,2P should be viewed as an approximation to the offspring-parent linear regression rather than the other way around. [source] REPRODUCTIVE ISOLATION CAUSED BY NATURAL SELECTION AGAINST IMMIGRANTS FROM DIVERGENT HABITATSEVOLUTION, Issue 4 2005Patrik Nosil Abstract The classification of reproductive isolating barriers laid out by Dobzhansky and Mayr has motivated and structured decades of research on speciation. We argue, however, that this classification is incomplete and that the unique contributions of a major source of reproductive isolation have often been overlooked. Here, we describe reproductive barriers that derive from the reduced survival of immigrants upon reaching foreign habitats that are ecologically divergent from their native habitat. This selection against immigrants reduces encounters and thus mating opportunities between individuals from divergently adapted populations. It also reduces the likelihood that successfully mated immigrant females will survive long enough to produce their hybrid offspring. Thus, natural selection against immigrants results in distinctive elements of premating and postmating reproductive isolation that we hereby dub "immigrant inviability". We quantify the contributions of immigrant inviability to total reproductive isolation by examining study systems where multiple components of reproductive isolation have been measured and demonstrate that these contributions are frequently greater than those of traditionally recognized reproductive barriers. The relevance of immigrant inviability is further illustrated by a consideration of population-genetic theory, a review of selection against immigrant alleles in hybrid zone studies, and an examination of its participation in feedback loops that influence the evolution of additional reproductive barriers. Because some degree of immigrant inviability will commonly exist between populations that exhibit adaptive ecological divergence, we emphasize that these barriers play critical roles in ecological modes of speciation. We hope that the formal recognition of immigrant inviability and our demonstration of its evolutionary importance will stimulate more explicit empirical studies of its contributions to speciation. [source] POWER AND POTENTIAL BIAS IN FIELD STUDIES OF NATURAL SELECTIONEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2004Erika I. Hersch Abstract The advent of multiple regression analyses of natural selection has facilitated estimates of both the direct and indirect effects of selection on many traits in numerous organisms. However, low power in selection studies has possibly led to a bias in our assessment of the levels of selection shaping natural populations. Using calculations and simulations based on the statistical properties of selection coefficients, we find that power to detect total selection (the selection differential) depends on sample size and the strength of selection relative to the opportunity of selection. The power of detecting direct selection (selection gradients) is more complicated and depends on the relationship between the correlation of each trait and fitness and the pattern of correlation among traits. In a review of 298 previously published selection differentials, we find that most studies have had insufficient power to detect reported levels of selection acting on traits and that, in general, the power of detecting weak levels of selection is low given current study designs. We also find that potential publication bias could explain the trend that reported levels of direct selection tend to decrease as study sizes increase, suggesting that current views of the strength of selection may be inaccurate and biased upward. We suggest that studies should be designed so that selection is analyzed on at least several hundred individuals, the total opportunity of selection be considered along with the pattern of selection on individual traits, and nonsignificant results be actively reported combined with an estimate of power. [source] PECTIVE: HERE'S TO FISHER, ADDITIVE GENETIC VARIANCE, AND THE FUNDAMENTALTHEOREM OF NATURAL SELECTIONEVOLUTION, Issue 7 2002James F. Crow Abstract Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, that the rate of change of fitness is given by the additive genetic variance of fitness, has generated much discussion since its appearance in 1930. Fisher tried to capture in the formula the change in population fitness attributable to changes of allele frequencies, when all else is not included. Lessar's formulation comes closest to Fisher's intention, as well as this can be judged. Additional terms can be added to account for other changes. The "theorem" as stated by Fisher is not exact, and therefore not a theorem, but it does encapsulate a great deal of evolutionary meaning in a simple statement. I also discuss the effectiveness of reproductive-value weighting and the theorem in integrated form. Finally, an optimum principle, analogous to least action and Hamilton's principle in physics, is discussed. [source] HAMILTON'S FORCES OF NATURAL SELECTION AFTER FORTY YEARSEVOLUTION, Issue 6 2007Michael R. Rose In 1966, William D. Hamilton published a landmark paper in evolutionary biology: "The Moulding of Senescence by Natural Selection." It is now apparent that this article is as important as his better-known 1964 articles on kin selection. Not only did the 1966 article explain aging, it also supplied the basic scaling forces for natural selection over the entire life history. Like the Lorentz transformations of relativistic physics, Hamilton's Forces of Natural Selection provide an overarching framework for understanding the power of natural selection at early ages, the existence of aging, the timing of aging, the cessation of aging, and the timing of the cessation of aging. His twin Forces show that natural selection shapes survival and fecundity in different ways, so their evolution can be somewhat distinct. Hamilton's Forces also define the context in which genetic variation is shaped. The Forces of Natural Selection are readily manipulable using experimental evolution, allowing the deceleration or acceleration of aging, and the shifting of the transition ages between development, aging, and late life. For these reasons, evolutionary research on the demographic features of life history should be referred to as "Hamiltonian." [source] Measuring knowledge of natural selection: A comparison of the CINS, an open-response instrument, and an oral interviewJOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN SCIENCE TEACHING, Issue 10 2008Ross H. Nehm Abstract Growing recognition of the central importance of fostering an in-depth understanding of natural selection has, surprisingly, failed to stimulate work on the development and rigorous evaluation of instruments that measure knowledge of it. We used three different methodological tools, the Conceptual Inventory of Natural Selection (CINS), a modified version of Bishop and Anderson's (Bishop and Anderson [1990] Journal of Research in Science Teaching 27: 415,427) open-response test that we call the Open Response Instrument (ORI), and an oral interview derived from both instruments, to measure biology majors' understanding of and alternative conceptions about natural selection. We explored how these instruments differentially inform science educators about the knowledge and alternative conceptions their students harbor. Overall, both the CINS and ORI provided excellent replacements for the time-consuming process of oral interviews and produced comparable measures of key concept diversity and, to a lesser extent, key concept frequency. In contrast, the ORI and CINS produced significantly different measures of both alternative conception diversity and frequency, with the ORI results completely concordant with oral interview results. Our study indicated that revisions of both the CINS and ORI are necessary because of numerous instrument items characterized by low discriminability, high and/or overlapping difficulty, and mismatches with the sample. While our results revealed that both instruments are valid and generally reliable measures of knowledge and alternative conceptions about natural selection, a test combining particular components of both instruments,a modified version of the CINS to test for key concepts, and a modified version of the ORI to assess student alternative conceptions,should be used until a more approprite instrument is developed and rigorously evaluated. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Res Sci Teach 45: 1131,1160, 2008 [source] Development and evaluation of the conceptual inventory of natural selectionJOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN SCIENCE TEACHING, Issue 10 2002Dianne L. Anderson Natural selection as a mechanism of evolution is a central concept in biology; yet, most nonbiology-majors do not thoroughly understand the theory even after instruction. Many alternative conceptions on this topic have been identified, indicating that the job of the instructor is a difficult one. This article presents a new diagnostic test to assess students' understanding of natural selection. The test items are based on actual scientific studies of natural selection, whereas previous tests have employed hypothetical situations that were often misleading or oversimplified. The Conceptual Inventory of Natural Selection (CINS) is a 20-item multiple choice test that employs common alternative conceptions as distractors. An original 12-item version of the test was field-tested with 170 nonmajors in 6 classes and 43 biology majors in 1 class at 3 community colleges. The test scores of one subset of nonmajors (n,=,7) were compared with the students' performances in semistructured interviews. There was a positive correlation between the test scores and the interview scores. The current 20-item version of the CINS was field-tested with 206 students in a nonmajors' general biology course. The face validity, internal validity, reliability, and readability of the CINS are discussed. Results indicate that the CINS will be a valuable tool for instructors. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Res Sci Teach 39: 952,978, 2002 [source] European Mathematical Genetics Meeting, Heidelberg, Germany, 12th,13th April 2007ANNALS OF HUMAN GENETICS, Issue 4 2007Article first published online: 28 MAY 200 Saurabh Ghosh 11 Indian Statistical Institute, Kolkata, India High correlations between two quantitative traits may be either due to common genetic factors or common environmental factors or a combination of both. In this study, we develop statistical methods to extract the contribution of a common QTL to the total correlation between the components of a bivariate phenotype. Using data on bivariate phenotypes and marker genotypes for sib-pairs, we propose a test for linkage between a common QTL and a marker locus based on the conditional cross-sib trait correlations (trait 1 of sib 1 , trait 2 of sib 2 and conversely) given the identity-by-descent sharing at the marker locus. The null hypothesis cannot be rejected unless there exists a common QTL. We use Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the performance of the proposed test under different trait parameters and quantitative trait distributions. An application of the method is illustrated using data on two alcohol-related phenotypes from the Collaborative Study On The Genetics Of Alcoholism project. Rémi Kazma 1 , Catherine Bonaďti-Pellié 1 , Emmanuelle Génin 12 INSERM UMR-S535 and Université Paris Sud, Villejuif, 94817, France Keywords: Gene-environment interaction, sibling recurrence risk, exposure correlation Gene-environment interactions may play important roles in complex disease susceptibility but their detection is often difficult. Here we show how gene-environment interactions can be detected by investigating the degree of familial aggregation according to the exposure of the probands. In case of gene-environment interaction, the distribution of genotypes of affected individuals, and consequently the risk in relatives, depends on their exposure. We developed a test comparing the risks in sibs according to the proband exposure. To evaluate the properties of this new test, we derived the formulas for calculating the expected risks in sibs according to the exposure of probands for various values of exposure frequency, relative risk due to exposure alone, frequencies of latent susceptibility genotypes, genetic relative risks and interaction coefficients. We find that the ratio of risks when the proband is exposed and not exposed is a good indicator of the interaction effect. We evaluate the power of the test for various sample sizes of affected individuals. We conclude that this test is valuable for diseases with moderate familial aggregation, only when the role of the exposure has been clearly evidenced. Since a correlation for exposure among sibs might lead to a difference in risks among sibs in the different proband exposure strata, we also add an exposure correlation coefficient in the model. Interestingly, we find that when this correlation is correctly accounted for, the power of the test is not decreased and might even be significantly increased. Andrea Callegaro 1 , Hans J.C. Van Houwelingen 1 , Jeanine Houwing-Duistermaat 13 Dept. of Medical Statistics and Bioinformatics, Leiden University Medical Center, The Netherlands Keywords: Survival analysis, age at onset, score test, linkage analysis Non parametric linkage (NPL) analysis compares the identical by descent (IBD) sharing in sibling pairs to the expected IBD sharing under the hypothesis of no linkage. Often information is available on the marginal cumulative hazards (for example breast cancer incidence curves). Our aim is to extend the NPL methods by taking into account the age at onset of selected sibling pairs using these known marginal hazards. Li and Zhong (2002) proposed a (retrospective) likelihood ratio test based on an additive frailty model for genetic linkage analysis. From their model we derive a score statistic for selected samples which turns out to be a weighed NPL method. The weights depend on the marginal cumulative hazards and on the frailty parameter. A second approach is based on a simple gamma shared frailty model. Here, we simply test whether the score function of the frailty parameter depends on the excess IBD. We compare the performance of these methods using simulated data. Céline Bellenguez 1 , Carole Ober 2 , Catherine Bourgain 14 INSERM U535 and University Paris Sud, Villejuif, France 5 Department of Human Genetics, The University of Chicago, USA Keywords: Linkage analysis, linkage disequilibrium, high density SNP data Compared with microsatellite markers, high density SNP maps should be more informative for linkage analyses. However, because they are much closer, SNPs present important linkage disequilibrium (LD), which biases classical nonparametric multipoint analyses. This problem is even stronger in population isolates where LD extends over larger regions with a more stochastic pattern. We investigate the issue of linkage analysis with a 500K SNP map in a large and inbred 1840-member Hutterite pedigree, phenotyped for asthma. Using an efficient pedigree breaking strategy, we first identified linked regions with a 5cM microsatellite map, on which we focused to evaluate the SNP map. The only method that models LD in the NPL analysis is limited in both the pedigree size and the number of markers (Abecasis and Wigginton, 2005) and therefore could not be used. Instead, we studied methods that identify sets of SNPs with maximum linkage information content in our pedigree and no LD-driven bias. Both algorithms that directly remove pairs of SNPs in high LD and clustering methods were evaluated. Null simulations were performed to control that Zlr calculated with the SNP sets were not falsely inflated. Preliminary results suggest that although LD is strong in such populations, linkage information content slightly better than that of microsatellite maps can be extracted from dense SNP maps, provided that a careful marker selection is conducted. In particular, we show that the specific LD pattern requires considering LD between a wide range of marker pairs rather than only in predefined blocks. Peter Van Loo 1,2,3 , Stein Aerts 1,2 , Diether Lambrechts 4,5 , Bernard Thienpont 2 , Sunit Maity 4,5 , Bert Coessens 3 , Frederik De Smet 4,5 , Leon-Charles Tranchevent 3 , Bart De Moor 2 , Koen Devriendt 3 , Peter Marynen 1,2 , Bassem Hassan 1,2 , Peter Carmeliet 4,5 , Yves Moreau 36 Department of Molecular and Developmental Genetics, VIB, Belgium 7 Department of Human Genetics, University of Leuven, Belgium 8 Bioinformatics group, Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Leuven, Belgium 9 Department of Transgene Technology and Gene Therapy, VIB, Belgium 10 Center for Transgene Technology and Gene Therapy, University of Leuven, Belgium Keywords: Bioinformatics, gene prioritization, data fusion The identification of genes involved in health and disease remains a formidable challenge. Here, we describe a novel bioinformatics method to prioritize candidate genes underlying pathways or diseases, based on their similarity to genes known to be involved in these processes. It is freely accessible as an interactive software tool, ENDEAVOUR, at http://www.esat.kuleuven.be/endeavour. Unlike previous methods, ENDEAVOUR generates distinct prioritizations from multiple heterogeneous data sources, which are then integrated, or fused, into one global ranking using order statistics. ENDEAVOUR prioritizes candidate genes in a three-step process. First, information about a disease or pathway is gathered from a set of known "training" genes by consulting multiple data sources. Next, the candidate genes are ranked based on similarity with the training properties obtained in the first step, resulting in one prioritized list for each data source. Finally, ENDEAVOUR fuses each of these rankings into a single global ranking, providing an overall prioritization of the candidate genes. Validation of ENDEAVOUR revealed it was able to efficiently prioritize 627 genes in disease data sets and 76 genes in biological pathway sets, identify candidates of 16 mono- or polygenic diseases, and discover regulatory genes of myeloid differentiation. Furthermore, the approach identified YPEL1 as a novel gene involved in craniofacial development from a 2-Mb chromosomal region, deleted in some patients with DiGeorge-like birth defects. Finally, we are currently evaluating a pipeline combining array-CGH, ENDEAVOUR and in vivo validation in zebrafish to identify novel genes involved in congenital heart defects. Mark Broom 1 , Graeme Ruxton 2 , Rebecca Kilner 311 Mathematics Dept., University of Sussex, UK 12 Division of Environmental and Evolutionary Biology, University of Glasgow, UK 13 Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, UK Keywords: Evolutionarily stable strategy, parasitism, asymmetric game Brood parasites chicks vary in the harm that they do to their companions in the nest. In this presentation we use game-theoretic methods to model this variation. Our model considers hosts which potentially abandon single nestlings and instead choose to re-allocate their reproductive effort to future breeding, irrespective of whether the abandoned chick is the host's young or a brood parasite's. The parasite chick must decide whether or not to kill host young by balancing the benefits from reduced competition in the nest against the risk of desertion by host parents. The model predicts that three different types of evolutionarily stable strategies can exist. (1) Hosts routinely rear depleted broods, the brood parasite always kills host young and the host never then abandons the nest. (2) When adult survival after deserting single offspring is very high, hosts always abandon broods of a single nestling and the parasite never kills host offspring, effectively holding them as hostages to prevent nest desertion. (3) Intermediate strategies, in which parasites sometimes kill their nest-mates and host parents sometimes desert nests that contain only a single chick, can also be evolutionarily stable. We provide quantitative descriptions of how the values given to ecological and behavioral parameters of the host-parasite system influence the likelihood of each strategy and compare our results with real host-brood parasite associations in nature. Martin Harrison 114 Mathematics Dept, University of Sussex, UK Keywords: Brood parasitism, games, host, parasite The interaction between hosts and parasites in bird populations has been studied extensively. Game theoretical methods have been used to model this interaction previously, but this has not been studied extensively taking into account the sequential nature of this game. We consider a model allowing the host and parasite to make a number of decisions, which depend on a number of natural factors. The host lays an egg, a parasite bird will arrive at the nest with a certain probability and then chooses to destroy a number of the host eggs and lay one of it's own. With some destruction occurring, either natural or through the actions of the parasite, the host chooses to continue, eject an egg (hoping to eject the parasite) or abandon the nest. Once the eggs have hatched the game then falls to the parasite chick versus the host. The chick chooses to destroy or eject a number of eggs. The final decision is made by the host, choosing whether to raise or abandon the chicks that are in the nest. We consider various natural parameters and probabilities which influence these decisions. We then use this model to look at real-world situations of the interactions of the Reed Warbler and two different parasites, the Common Cuckoo and the Brown-Headed Cowbird. These two parasites have different methods in the way that they parasitize the nests of their hosts. The hosts in turn have a different reaction to these parasites. Arne Jochens 1 , Amke Caliebe 2 , Uwe Roesler 1 , Michael Krawczak 215 Mathematical Seminar, University of Kiel, Germany 16 Institute of Medical Informatics and Statistics, University of Kiel, Germany Keywords: Stepwise mutation model, microsatellite, recursion equation, temporal behaviour We consider the stepwise mutation model which occurs, e.g., in microsatellite loci. Let X(t,i) denote the allelic state of individual i at time t. We compute expectation, variance and covariance of X(t,i), i=1,,,N, and provide a recursion equation for P(X(t,i)=z). Because the variance of X(t,i) goes to infinity as t grows, for the description of the temporal behaviour, we regard the scaled process X(t,i)-X(t,1). The results furnish a better understanding of the behaviour of the stepwise mutation model and may in future be used to derive tests for neutrality under this model. Paul O'Reilly 1 , Ewan Birney 2 , David Balding 117 Statistical Genetics, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial, College London, UK 18 European Bioinformatics Institute, EMBL, Cambridge, UK Keywords: Positive selection, Recombination rate, LD, Genome-wide, Natural Selection In recent years efforts to develop population genetics methods that estimate rates of recombination and levels of natural selection in the human genome have intensified. However, since the two processes have an intimately related impact on genetic variation their inference is vulnerable to confounding. Genomic regions subject to recent selection are likely to have a relatively recent common ancestor and consequently less opportunity for historical recombinations that are detectable in contemporary populations. Here we show that selection can reduce the population-based recombination rate estimate substantially. In genome-wide studies for detecting selection we observe a tendency to highlight loci that are subject to low levels of recombination. We find that the outlier approach commonly adopted in such studies may have low power unless variable recombination is accounted for. We introduce a new genome-wide method for detecting selection that exploits the sensitivity to recent selection of methods for estimating recombination rates, while accounting for variable recombination using pedigree data. Through simulations we demonstrate the high power of the Ped/Pop approach to discriminate between neutral and adaptive evolution, particularly in the context of choosing outliers from a genome-wide distribution. Although methods have been developed showing good power to detect selection ,in action', the corresponding window of opportunity is small. In contrast, the power of the Ped/Pop method is maintained for many generations after the fixation of an advantageous variant Sarah Griffiths 1 , Frank Dudbridge 120 MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge, UK Keywords: Genetic association, multimarker tag, haplotype, likelihood analysis In association studies it is generally too expensive to genotype all variants in all subjects. We can exploit linkage disequilibrium between SNPs to select a subset that captures the variation in a training data set obtained either through direct resequencing or a public resource such as the HapMap. These ,tag SNPs' are then genotyped in the whole sample. Multimarker tagging is a more aggressive adaptation of pairwise tagging that allows for combinations of two or more tag SNPs to predict an untyped SNP. Here we describe a new method for directly testing the association of an untyped SNP using a multimarker tag. Previously, other investigators have suggested testing a specific tag haplotype, or performing a weighted analysis using weights derived from the training data. However these approaches do not properly account for the imperfect correlation between the tag haplotype and the untyped SNP. Here we describe a straightforward approach to testing untyped SNPs using a missing-data likelihood analysis, including the tag markers as nuisance parameters. The training data is stacked on top of the main body of genotype data so there is information on how the tag markers predict the genotype of the untyped SNP. The uncertainty in this prediction is automatically taken into account in the likelihood analysis. This approach yields more power and also a more accurate prediction of the odds ratio of the untyped SNP. Anke Schulz 1 , Christine Fischer 2 , Jenny Chang-Claude 1 , Lars Beckmann 121 Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) Heidelberg, Germany 22 Institute of Human Genetics, University of Heidelberg, Germany Keywords: Haplotype, haplotype sharing, entropy, Mantel statistics, marker selection We previously introduced a new method to map genes involved in complex diseases, using haplotype sharing-based Mantel statistics to correlate genetic and phenotypic similarity. Although the Mantel statistic is powerful in narrowing down candidate regions, the precise localization of a gene is hampered in genomic regions where linkage disequilibrium is so high that neighboring markers are found to be significant at similar magnitude and we are not able to discriminate between them. Here, we present a new approach to localize susceptibility genes by combining haplotype sharing-based Mantel statistics with an iterative entropy-based marker selection algorithm. For each marker at which the Mantel statistic is evaluated, the algorithm selects a subset of surrounding markers. The subset is chosen to maximize multilocus linkage disequilibrium, which is measured by the normalized entropy difference introduced by Nothnagel et al. (2002). We evaluated the algorithm with respect to type I error and power. Its ability to localize the disease variant was compared to the localization (i) without marker selection and (ii) considering haplotype block structure. Case-control samples were simulated from a set of 18 haplotypes, consisting of 15 SNPs in two haplotype blocks. The new algorithm gave correct type I error and yielded similar power to detect the disease locus compared to the alternative approaches. The neighboring markers were clearly less often significant than the causal locus, and also less often significant compared to the alternative approaches. Thus the new algorithm improved the precision of the localization of susceptibility genes. Mark M. Iles 123 Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, LIMM, University of Leeds, UK Keywords: tSNP, tagging, association, HapMap Tagging SNPs (tSNPs) are commonly used to capture genetic diversity cost-effectively. However, it is important that the efficacy of tSNPs is correctly estimated, otherwise coverage may be insufficient. If the pilot sample from which tSNPs are chosen is too small or the initial marker map too sparse, tSNP efficacy may be overestimated. An existing estimation method based on bootstrapping goes some way to correct for insufficient sample size and overfitting, but does not completely solve the problem. We describe a novel method, based on exclusion of haplotypes, that improves on the bootstrap approach. Using simulated data, the extent of the sample size problem is investigated and the performance of the bootstrap and the novel method are compared. We incorporate an existing method adjusting for marker density by ,SNP-dropping'. We find that insufficient sample size can cause large overestimates in tSNP efficacy, even with as many as 100 individuals, and the problem worsens as the region studied increases in size. Both the bootstrap and novel method correct much of this overestimate, with our novel method consistently outperforming the bootstrap method. We conclude that a combination of insufficient sample size and overfitting may lead to overestimation of tSNP efficacy and underpowering of studies based on tSNPs. Our novel approach corrects for much of this bias and is superior to the previous method. Sample sizes larger than previously suggested may still be required for accurate estimation of tSNP efficacy. This has obvious ramifications for the selection of tSNPs from HapMap data. Claudio Verzilli 1 , Juliet Chapman 1 , Aroon Hingorani 2 , Juan Pablo-Casas 1 , Tina Shah 2 , Liam Smeeth 1 , John Whittaker 124 Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK 25 Division of Medicine, University College London, UK Keywords: Meta-analysis, Genetic association studies We present a Bayesian hierarchical model for the meta-analysis of candidate gene studies with a continuous outcome. Such studies often report results from association tests for different, possibly study-specific and non-overlapping markers (typically SNPs) in the same genetic region. Meta analyses of the results at each marker in isolation are seldom appropriate as they ignore the correlation that may exist between markers due to linkage disequlibrium (LD) and cannot assess the relative importance of variants at each marker. Also such marker-wise meta analyses are restricted to only those studies that have typed the marker in question, with a potential loss of power. A better strategy is one which incorporates information about the LD between markers so that any combined estimate of the effect of each variant is corrected for the effect of other variants, as in multiple regression. Here we develop a Bayesian hierarchical linear regression that models the observed genotype group means and uses pairwise LD measurements between markers as prior information to make posterior inference on adjusted effects. The approach is applied to the meta analysis of 24 studies assessing the effect of 7 variants in the C-reactive protein (CRP) gene region on plasma CRP levels, an inflammatory biomarker shown in observational studies to be positively associated with cardiovascular disease. Cathryn M. Lewis 1 , Christopher G. Mathew 1 , Theresa M. Marteau 226 Dept. of Medical and Molecular Genetics, King's College London, UK 27 Department of Psychology, King's College London, UK Keywords: Risk, genetics, CARD15, smoking, model Recently progress has been made in identifying mutations that confer susceptibility to complex diseases, with the potential to use these mutations in determining disease risk. We developed methods to estimate disease risk based on genotype relative risks (for a gene G), exposure to an environmental factor (E), and family history (with recurrence risk ,R for a relative of type R). ,R must be partitioned into the risk due to G (which is modelled independently) and the residual risk. The risk model was then applied to Crohn's disease (CD), a severe gastrointestinal disease for which smoking increases disease risk approximately 2-fold, and mutations in CARD15 confer increased risks of 2.25 (for carriers of a single mutation) and 9.3 (for carriers of two mutations). CARD15 accounts for only a small proportion of the genetic component of CD, with a gene-specific ,S, CARD15 of 1.16, from a total sibling relative risk of ,S= 27. CD risks were estimated for high-risk individuals who are siblings of a CD case, and who also smoke. The CD risk to such individuals who carry two CARD15 mutations is approximately 0.34, and for those carrying a single CARD15 mutation the risk is 0.08, compared to a population prevalence of approximately 0.001. These results imply that complex disease genes may be valuable in estimating with greater precision than has hitherto been possible disease risks in specific, easily identified subgroups of the population with a view to prevention. Yurii Aulchenko 128 Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands Keywords: Compression, information, bzip2, genome-wide SNP data, statistical genetics With advances in molecular technology, studies accessing millions of genetic polymorphisms in thousands of study subjects will soon become common. Such studies generate large amounts of data, whose effective storage and management is a challenge to the modern statistical genetics. Standard file compression utilities, such as Zip, Gzip and Bzip2, may be helpful to minimise the storage requirements. Less obvious is the fact that the data compression techniques may be also used in the analysis of genetic data. It is known that the efficiency of a particular compression algorithm depends on the probability structure of the data. In this work, we compared different standard and customised tools using the data from human HapMap project. Secondly, we investigate the potential uses of data compression techniques for the analysis of linkage, association and linkage disequilibrium Suzanne Leal 1 , Bingshan Li 129 Department of Molecular and Human Genetics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, USA Keywords: Consanguineous pedigrees, missing genotype data Missing genotype data can increase false-positive evidence for linkage when either parametric or nonparametric analysis is carried out ignoring intermarker linkage disequilibrium (LD). Previously it was demonstrated by Huang et al (2005) that no bias occurs in this situation for affected sib-pairs with unrelated parents when either both parents are genotyped or genotype data is available for two additional unaffected siblings when parental genotypes are missing. However, this is not the case for consanguineous pedigrees, where missing genotype data for any pedigree member within a consanguinity loop can increase false-positive evidence of linkage. The false-positive evidence for linkage is further increased when cryptic consanguinity is present. The amount of false-positive evidence for linkage is highly dependent on which family members are genotyped. When parental genotype data is available, the false-positive evidence for linkage is usually not as strong as when parental genotype data is unavailable. Which family members will aid in the reduction of false-positive evidence of linkage is highly dependent on which other family members are genotyped. For a pedigree with an affected proband whose first-cousin parents have been genotyped, further reduction in the false-positive evidence of linkage can be obtained by including genotype data from additional affected siblings of the proband or genotype data from the proband's sibling-grandparents. When parental genotypes are not available, false-positive evidence for linkage can be reduced by including in the analysis genotype data from either unaffected siblings of the proband or the proband's married-in-grandparents. Najaf Amin 1 , Yurii Aulchenko 130 Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Erasmus Medical Centre Rotterdam, The Netherlands Keywords: Genomic Control, pedigree structure, quantitative traits The Genomic Control (GC) method was originally developed to control for population stratification and cryptic relatedness in association studies. This method assumes that the effect of population substructure on the test statistics is essentially constant across the genome, and therefore unassociated markers can be used to estimate the effect of confounding onto the test statistic. The properties of GC method were extensively investigated for different stratification scenarios, and compared to alternative methods, such as the transmission-disequilibrium test. The potential of this method to correct not for occasional cryptic relations, but for regular pedigree structure, however, was not investigated before. In this work we investigate the potential of the GC method for pedigree-based association analysis of quantitative traits. The power and type one error of the method was compared to standard methods, such as the measured genotype (MG) approach and quantitative trait transmission-disequilibrium test. In human pedigrees, with trait heritability varying from 30 to 80%, the power of MG and GC approach was always higher than that of TDT. GC had correct type 1 error and its power was close to that of MG under moderate heritability (30%), but decreased with higher heritability. William Astle 1 , Chris Holmes 2 , David Balding 131 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, UK 32 Department of Statistics, University of Oxford, UK Keywords: Population structure, association studies, genetic epidemiology, statistical genetics In the analysis of population association studies, Genomic Control (Devlin & Roeder, 1999) (GC) adjusts the Armitage test statistic to correct the type I error for the effects of population substructure, but its power is often sub-optimal. Turbo Genomic Control (TGC) generalises GC to incorporate co-variation of relatedness and phenotype, retaining control over type I error while improving power. TGC is similar to the method of Yu et al. (2006), but we extend it to binary (case-control) in addition to quantitative phenotypes, we implement improved estimation of relatedness coefficients, and we derive an explicit statistic that generalizes the Armitage test statistic and is fast to compute. TGC also has similarities to EIGENSTRAT (Price et al., 2006) which is a new method based on principle components analysis. The problems of population structure(Clayton et al., 2005) and cryptic relatedness (Voight & Pritchard, 2005) are essentially the same: if patterns of shared ancestry differ between cases and controls, whether distant (coancestry) or recent (cryptic relatedness), false positives can arise and power can be diminished. With large numbers of widely-spaced genetic markers, coancestry can now be measured accurately for each pair of individuals via patterns of allele-sharing. Instead of modelling subpopulations, we work instead with a coancestry coefficient for each pair of individuals in the study. We explain the relationships between TGC, GC and EIGENSTRAT. We present simulation studies and real data analyses to illustrate the power advantage of TGC in a range of scenarios incorporating both substructure and cryptic relatedness. References Clayton, D. G.et al. (2005) Population structure, differential bias and genomic control in a large-scale case-control association study. Nature Genetics37(11) November 2005. Devlin, B. & Roeder, K. (1999) Genomic control for association studies. Biometics55(4) December 1999. Price, A. L.et al. (2006) Principal components analysis corrects for stratification in genome-wide association studies. Nature Genetics38(8) (August 2006). Voight, B. J. & Pritchard, J. K. (2005) Confounding from cryptic relatedness in case-control association studies. Public Library of Science Genetics1(3) September 2005. Yu, J.et al. (2006) A unified mixed-model method for association mapping that accounts for multiple levels of relatedness. Nature Genetics38(2) February 2006. Hervé Perdry 1 , Marie-Claude Babron 1 , Françoise Clerget-Darpoux 133 INSERM U535 and Univ. Paris Sud, UMR-S 535, Villejuif, France Keywords: Modifier genes, case-parents trios, ordered transmission disequilibrium test A modifying locus is a polymorphic locus, distinct from the disease locus, which leads to differences in the disease phenotype, either by modifying the penetrance of the disease allele, or by modifying the expression of the disease. The effect of such a locus is a clinical heterogeneity that can be reflected by the values of an appropriate covariate, such as the age of onset, or the severity of the disease. We designed the Ordered Transmission Disequilibrium Test (OTDT) to test for a relation between the clinical heterogeneity, expressed by the covariate, and marker genotypes of a candidate gene. The method applies to trio families with one affected child and his parents. Each family member is genotyped at a bi-allelic marker M of a candidate gene. To each of the families is associated a covariate value; the families are ordered on the values of this covariate. As the TDT (Spielman et al. 1993), the OTDT is based on the observation of the transmission rate T of a given allele at M. The OTDT aims to find a critical value of the covariate which separates the sample of families in two subsamples in which the transmission rates are significantly different. We investigate the power of the method by simulations under various genetic models and covariate distributions. Acknowledgments H Perdry is funded by ARSEP. Pascal Croiseau 1 , Heather Cordell 2 , Emmanuelle Génin 134 INSERM U535 and University Paris Sud, UMR-S535, Villejuif, France 35 Institute of Human Genetics, Newcastle University, UK Keywords: Association, missing data, conditionnal logistic regression Missing data is an important problem in association studies. Several methods used to test for association need that individuals be genotyped at the full set of markers. Individuals with missing data need to be excluded from the analysis. This could involve an important decrease in sample size and a loss of information. If the disease susceptibility locus (DSL) is poorly typed, it is also possible that a marker in linkage disequilibrium gives a stronger association signal than the DSL. One may then falsely conclude that the marker is more likely to be the DSL. We recently developed a Multiple Imputation method to infer missing data on case-parent trios Starting from the observed data, a few number of complete data sets are generated by Markov-Chain Monte Carlo approach. These complete datasets are analysed using standard statistical package and the results are combined as described in Little & Rubin (2002). Here we report the results of simulations performed to examine, for different patterns of missing data, how often the true DSL gives the highest association score among different loci in LD. We found that multiple imputation usually correctly detect the DSL site even if the percentage of missing data is high. This is not the case for the naďve approach that consists in discarding trios with missing data. In conclusion, Multiple imputation presents the advantage of being easy to use and flexible and is therefore a promising tool in the search for DSL involved in complex diseases. Salma Kotti 1 , Heike Bickeböller 2 , Françoise Clerget-Darpoux 136 University Paris Sud, UMR-S535, Villejuif, France 37 Department of Genetic Epidemiology, Medical School, University of Göttingen, Germany Keywords: Genotype relative risk, internal controls, Family based analyses Family based analyses using internal controls are very popular both for detecting the effect of a genetic factor and for estimating the relative disease risk on the corresponding genotypes. Two different procedures are often applied to reconstitute internal controls. The first one considers one pseudocontrol genotype formed by the parental non-transmitted alleles called also 1:1 matching of alleles, while the second corresponds to three pseudocontrols corresponding to all genotypes formed by the parental alleles except the one of the case (1:3 matching). Many studies have compared between the two procedures in terms of the power and have concluded that the difference depends on the underlying genetic model and the allele frequencies. However, the estimation of the Genotype Relative Risk (GRR) under the two procedures has not been studied. Based on the fact that on the 1:1 matching, the control group is composed of the alleles untransmitted to the affected child and on the 1:3 matching, the control group is composed amongst alleles already transmitted to the affected child, we expect a difference on the GRR estimation. In fact, we suspect that the second procedure leads to biased estimation of the GRRs. We will analytically derive the GRR estimators for the 1:1 and 1:3 matching and will present the results at the meeting. Family based analyses using internal controls are very popular both for detecting the effect of a genetic factor and for estimating the relative disease risk on the corresponding genotypes. Two different procedures are often applied to reconstitute internal controls. The first one considers one pseudocontrol genotype formed by the parental non-transmitted alleles called also 1:1 matching of alleles, while the second corresponds to three pseudocontrols corresponding to all genotypes formed by the parental alleles except the one of the case (1:3 matching). Many studies have compared between the two procedures in terms of the power and have concluded that the difference depends on the underlying genetic model and the allele frequencies. However, the estimation of the Genotype Relative Risk (GRR) under the two procedures has not been studied. Based on the fact that on the 1:1 matching, the control group is composed of the alleles untransmitted to the affected child and on the 1:3 matching, the control group is composed amongst alleles already transmitted to the affected child, we expect a difference on the GRR estimation. In fact, we suspect that the second procedure leads to biased estimation of the GRR. We will analytically derive the GRR estimator for the 1:1 and 1:3 matching and will present the results at the meeting. Luigi Palla 1 , David Siegmund 239 Department of Mathematics,Free University Amsterdam, The Netherlands 40 Department of Statistics, Stanford University, California, USA Keywords: TDT, assortative mating, inbreeding, statistical power A substantial amount of Assortative Mating (AM) is often recorded on physical and psychological, dichotomous as well as quantitative traits that are supposed to have a multifactorial genetic component. In particular AM has the effect of increasing the genetic variance, even more than inbreeding because it acts across loci beside within loci, when the trait has a multifactorial origin. Under the assumption of a polygenic model for AM dating back to Wright (1921) and refined by Crow and Felsenstein (1968,1982), the effect of assortative mating on the power to detect genetic association in the Transmission Disequilibrium Test (TDT) is explored as parameters, such as the effective number of genes and the allelic frequency vary. The power is reflected by the non centrality parameter of the TDT and is expressed as a function of the number of trios, the relative risk of the heterozygous genotype and the allele frequency (Siegmund and Yakir, 2007). The noncentrality parameter of the relevant score statistic is updated considering the effect of AM which is expressed in terms of an ,effective' inbreeding coefficient. In particular, for dichotomous traits it is apparent that the higher the number of genes involved in the trait, the lower the loss in power due to AM. Finally an attempt is made to extend this relation to the Q-TDT (Rabinowitz, 1997), which involves considering the effect of AM also on the phenotypic variance of the trait of interest, under the assumption that AM affects only its additive genetic component. References Crow, & Felsenstein, (1968). The effect of assortative mating on the genetic composition of a population. Eugen.Quart.15, 87,97. Rabinowitz,, 1997. A Transmission Disequilibrium Test for Quantitative Trait Loci. Human Heredity47, 342,350. Siegmund, & Yakir, (2007) Statistics of gene mapping, Springer. Wright, (1921). System of mating.III. Assortative mating based on somatic resemblance. Genetics6, 144,161. Jérémie Nsengimana 1 , Ben D Brown 2 , Alistair S Hall 2 , Jenny H Barrett 141 Leeds Institute of Molecular Medicine, University of Leeds, UK 42 Leeds Institute for Genetics, Health and Therapeutics, University of Leeds, UK Keywords: Inflammatory genes, haplotype, coronary artery disease Genetic Risk of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) is an initiative to collect cases of coronary artery disease (CAD) and their unaffected siblings in the UK and to use them to map genetic variants increasing disease risk. The aim of the present study was to test the association between CAD and 51 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and their haplotypes from 35 inflammatory genes. Genotype data were available for 1154 persons affected before age 66 (including 48% before age 50) and their 1545 unaffected siblings (891 discordant families). Each SNP was tested for association to CAD, and haplotypes within genes or gene clusters were tested using FBAT (Rabinowitz & Laird, 2000). For the most significant results, genetic effect size was estimated using conditional logistic regression (CLR) within STATA adjusting for other risk factors. Haplotypes were assigned using HAPLORE (Zhang et al., 2005), which considers all parental mating types consistent with offspring genotypes and assigns them a probability of occurence. This probability was used in CLR to weight the haplotypes. In the single SNP analysis, several SNPs showed some evidence for association, including one SNP in the interleukin-1A gene. Analysing haplotypes in the interleukin-1 gene cluster, a common 3-SNP haplotype was found to increase the risk of CAD (P = 0.009). In an additive genetic model adjusting for covariates the odds ratio (OR) for this haplotype is 1.56 (95% CI: 1.16-2.10, p = 0.004) for early-onset CAD (before age 50). This study illustrates the utility of haplotype analysis in family-based association studies to investigate candidate genes. References Rabinowitz, D. & Laird, N. M. (2000) Hum Hered50, 211,223. Zhang, K., Sun, F. & Zhao, H. (2005) Bioinformatics21, 90,103. Andrea Foulkes 1 , Recai Yucel 1 , Xiaohong Li 143 Division of Biostatistics, University of Massachusetts, USA Keywords: Haploytpe, high-dimensional, mixed modeling The explosion of molecular level information coupled with large epidemiological studies presents an exciting opportunity to uncover the genetic underpinnings of complex diseases; however, several analytical challenges remain to be addressed. Characterizing the components to complex diseases inevitably requires consideration of synergies across multiple genetic loci and environmental and demographic factors. In addition, it is critical to capture information on allelic phase, that is whether alleles within a gene are in cis (on the same chromosome) or in trans (on different chromosomes.) In associations studies of unrelated individuals, this alignment of alleles within a chromosomal copy is generally not observed. We address the potential ambiguity in allelic phase in this high dimensional data setting using mixed effects models. Both a semi-parametric and fully likelihood-based approach to estimation are considered to account for missingness in cluster identifiers. In the first case, we apply a multiple imputation procedure coupled with a first stage expectation maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. A bootstrap approach is employed to assess sensitivity to variability induced by parameter estimation. Secondly, a fully likelihood-based approach using an expectation conditional maximization algorithm is described. Notably, these models allow for characterizing high-order gene-gene interactions while providing a flexible statistical framework to account for the confounding or mediating role of person specific covariates. The proposed method is applied to data arising from a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) infected individuals at risk for therapy associated dyslipidemia. Simulation studies demonstrate reasonable power and control of family-wise type 1 error rates. Vivien Marquard 1 , Lars Beckmann 1 , Jenny Chang-Claude 144 Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) Heidelberg, Germany Keywords: Genotyping errors, type I error, haplotype-based association methods It has been shown in several simulation studies that genotyping errors may have a great impact on the type I error of statistical methods used in genetic association analysis of complex diseases. Our aim was to investigate type I error rates in a case-control study, when differential and non-differential genotyping errors were introduced in realistic scenarios. We simulated case-control data sets, where individual genotypes were drawn from a haplotype distribution of 18 haplotypes with 15 markers in the APM1 gene. Genotyping errors were introduced following the unrestricted and symmetric with 0 edges error models described by Heid et al. (2006). In six scenarios, errors resulted from changes of one allele to another with predefined probabilities of 1%, 2.5% or 10%, respectively. A multiple number of errors per haplotype was possible and could vary between 0 and 15, the number of markers investigated. We examined three association methods: Mantel statistics using haplotype-sharing; a haplotype-specific score test; and Armitage trend test for single markers. The type I error rates were not influenced for any of all the three methods for a genotyping error rate of less than 1%. For higher error rates and differential errors, the type I error of the Mantel statistic was only slightly and of the Armitage trend test moderately increased. The type I error rates of the score test were highly increased. The type I error rates were correct for all three methods for non-differential errors. Further investigations will be carried out with different frequencies of differential error rates and focus on power. Arne Neumann 1 , Dörthe Malzahn 1 , Martina Müller 2 , Heike Bickeböller 145 Department of Genetic Epidemiology, Medical School, University of Göttingen, Germany 46 GSF-National Research Center for Environment and Health, Neuherberg & IBE-Institute of Epidemiology, Ludwig-Maximilians University München, Germany Keywords: Interaction, longitudinal, nonparametric Longitudinal data show the time dependent course of phenotypic traits. In this contribution, we consider longitudinal cohort studies and investigate the association between two candidate genes and a dependent quantitative longitudinal phenotype. The set-up defines a factorial design which allows us to test simultaneously for the overall gene effect of the loci as well as for possible gene-gene and gene time interaction. The latter would induce genetically based time-profile differences in the longitudinal phenotype. We adopt a non-parametric statistical test to genetic epidemiological cohort studies and investigate its performance by simulation studies. The statistical test was originally developed for longitudinal clinical studies (Brunner, Munzel, Puri, 1999 J Multivariate Anal 70:286-317). It is non-parametric in the sense that no assumptions are made about the underlying distribution of the quantitative phenotype. Longitudinal observations belonging to the same individual can be arbitrarily dependent on one another for the different time points whereas trait observations of different individuals are independent. The two loci are assumed to be statistically independent. Our simulations show that the nonparametric test is comparable with ANOVA in terms of power of detecting gene-gene and gene-time interaction in an ANOVA favourable setting. Rebecca Hein 1 , Lars Beckmann 1 , Jenny Chang-Claude 147 Division of Cancer Epidemiology, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) Heidelberg, Germany Keywords: Indirect association studies, interaction effects, linkage disequilibrium, marker allele frequency Association studies accounting for gene-environment interactions (GxE) may be useful for detecting genetic effects and identifying important environmental effect modifiers. Current technology facilitates very dense marker spacing in genetic association studies; however, the true disease variant(s) may not be genotyped. In this situation, an association between a gene and a phenotype may still be detectable, using genetic markers associated with the true disease variant(s) (indirect association). Zondervan and Cardon [2004] showed that the odds ratios (OR) of markers which are associated with the disease variant depend highly on the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the variant and the markers, and whether the allele frequencies match and thereby influence the sample size needed to detect genetic association. We examined the influence of LD and allele frequencies on the sample size needed to detect GxE in indirect association studies, and provide tables for sample size estimation. For discordant allele frequencies and incomplete LD, sample sizes can be unfeasibly large. The influence of both factors is stronger for disease loci with small rather than moderate to high disease allele frequencies. A decline in D' of e.g. 5% has less impact on sample size than increasing the difference in allele frequencies by the same percentage. Assuming 80% power, large interaction effects can be detected using smaller sample sizes than those needed for the detection of main effects. The detection of interaction effects involving rare alleles may not be possible. Focussing only on marker density can be a limited strategy in indirect association studies for GxE. Cyril Dalmasso 1 , Emmanuelle Génin 2 , Catherine Bourgain 2 , Philippe Broët 148 JE 2492 , Univ. Paris-Sud, France 49 INSERM UMR-S 535 and University Paris Sud, Villejuif, France Keywords: Linkage analysis, Multiple testing, False Discovery Rate, Mixture model In the context of genome-wide linkage analyses, where a large number of statistical tests are simultaneously performed, the False Discovery Rate (FDR) that is defined as the expected proportion of false discoveries among all discoveries is nowadays widely used for taking into account the multiple testing problem. Other related criteria have been considered such as the local False Discovery Rate (lFDR) that is a variant of the FDR giving to each test its own measure of significance. The lFDR is defined as the posterior probability that a null hypothesis is true. Most of the proposed methods for estimating the lFDR or the FDR rely on distributional assumption under the null hypothesis. However, in observational studies, the empirical null distribution may be very different from the theoretical one. In this work, we propose a mixture model based approach that provides estimates of the lFDR and the FDR in the context of large-scale variance component linkage analyses. In particular, this approach allows estimating the empirical null distribution, this latter being a key quantity for any simultaneous inference procedure. The proposed method is applied on a real dataset. Arief Gusnanto 1 , Frank Dudbridge 150 MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge UK Keywords: Significance, genome-wide, association, permutation, multiplicity Genome-wide association scans have introduced statistical challenges, mainly in the multiplicity of thousands of tests. The question of what constitutes a significant finding remains somewhat unresolved. Permutation testing is very time-consuming, whereas Bayesian arguments struggle to distinguish direct from indirect association. It seems attractive to summarise the multiplicity in a simple form that allows users to avoid time-consuming permutations. A standard significance level would facilitate reporting of results and reduce the need for permutation tests. This is potentially important because current scans do not have full coverage of the whole genome, and yet, the implicit multiplicity is genome-wide. We discuss some proposed summaries, with reference to the empirical null distribution of the multiple tests, approximated through a large number of random permutations. Using genome-wide data from the Wellcome Trust Case-Control Consortium, we use a sub-sampling approach with increasing density to estimate the nominal p-value to obtain family-wise significance of 5%. The results indicate that the significance level is converging to about 1e-7 as the marker spacing becomes infinitely dense. We considered the concept of an effective number of independent tests, and showed that when used in a Bonferroni correction, the number varies with the overall significance level, but is roughly constant in the region of interest. We compared several estimators of the effective number of tests, and showed that in the region of significance of interest, Patterson's eigenvalue based estimator gives approximately the right family-wise error rate. Michael Nothnagel 1 , Amke Caliebe 1 , Michael Krawczak 151 Institute of Medical Informatics and Statistics, University Clinic Schleswig-Holstein, University of Kiel, Germany Keywords: Association scans, Bayesian framework, posterior odds, genetic risk, multiplicative model Whole-genome association scans have been suggested to be a cost-efficient way to survey genetic variation and to map genetic disease factors. We used a Bayesian framework to investigate the posterior odds of a genuine association under multiplicative disease models. We demonstrate that the p value alone is not a sufficient means to evaluate the findings in association studies. We suggest that likelihood ratios should accompany p values in association reports. We argue, that, given the reported results of whole-genome scans, more associations should have been successfully replicated if the consistently made assumptions about considerable genetic risks were correct. We conclude that it is very likely that the vast majority of relative genetic risks are only of the order of 1.2 or lower. Clive Hoggart 1 , Maria De Iorio 1 , John Whittakker 2 , David Balding 152 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, UK 53 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK Keywords: Genome-wide association analyses, shrinkage priors, Lasso Testing one SNP at a time does not fully realise the potential of genome-wide association studies to identify multiple causal variants of small effect, which is a plausible scenario for many complex diseases. Moreover, many simulation studies assume a single causal variant and so more complex realities are ignored. Analysing large numbers of variants simultaneously is now becoming feasible, thanks to developments in Bayesian stochastic search methods. We pose the problem of SNP selection as variable selection in a regression model. In contrast to single SNP tests this approach simultaneously models the effect of all SNPs. SNPs are selected by a Bayesian interpretation of the lasso (Tibshirani, 1996); the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimate of the regression coefficients, which have been given independent, double exponential prior distributions. The double exponential distribution is an example of a shrinkage prior, MAP estimates with shrinkage priors can be zero, thus all SNPs with non zero regression coefficients are selected. In addition to the commonly-used double exponential (Laplace) prior, we also implement the normal exponential gamma prior distribution. We show that use of the Laplace prior improves SNP selection in comparison with single -SNP tests, and that the normal exponential gamma prior leads to a further improvement. Our method is fast and can handle very large numbers of SNPs: we demonstrate its performance using both simulated and real genome-wide data sets with 500 K SNPs, which can be analysed in 2 hours on a desktop workstation. Mickael Guedj 1,2 , Jerome Wojcik 2 , Gregory Nuel 154 Laboratoire Statistique et Génome, Université d'Evry, Evry France 55 Serono Pharmaceutical Research Institute, Plan-les-Ouates, Switzerland Keywords: Local Replication, Local Score, Association In gene-mapping, replication of initial findings has been put forwards as the approach of choice for filtering false-positives from true signals for underlying loci. In practice, such replications are however too poorly observed. Besides the statistical and technical-related factors (lack of power, multiple-testing, stratification, quality control,) inconsistent conclusions obtained from independent populations might result from real biological differences. In particular, the high degree of variation in the strength of LD among populations of different origins is a major challenge to the discovery of genes. Seeking for Local Replications (defined as the presence of a signal of association in a same genomic region among populations) instead of strict replications (same locus, same risk allele) may lead to more reliable results. Recently, a multi-markers approach based on the Local Score statistic has been proposed as a simple and efficient way to select candidate genomic regions at the first stage of genome-wide association studies. Here we propose an extension of this approach adapted to replicated association studies. Based on simulations, this method appears promising. In particular it outperforms classical simple-marker strategies to detect modest-effect genes. Additionally it constitutes, to our knowledge, a first framework dedicated to the detection of such Local Replications. Juliet Chapman 1 , Claudio Verzilli 1 , John Whittaker 156 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK Keywords: FDR, Association studies, Bayesian model selection As genomewide association studies become commonplace there is debate as to how such studies might be analysed and what we might hope to gain from the data. It is clear that standard single locus approaches are limited in that they do not adjust for the effects of other loci and problematic since it is not obvious how to adjust for multiple comparisons. False discovery rates have been suggested, but it is unclear how well these will cope with highly correlated genetic data. We consider the validity of standard false discovery rates in large scale association studies. We also show that a Bayesian procedure has advantages in detecting causal loci amongst a large number of dependant SNPs and investigate properties of a Bayesian FDR. Peter Kraft 157 Harvard School of Public Health, Boston USA Keywords: Gene-environment interaction, genome-wide association scans Appropriately analyzed two-stage designs,where a subset of available subjects are genotyped on a genome-wide panel of markers at the first stage and then a much smaller subset of the most promising markers are genotyped on the remaining subjects,can have nearly as much power as a single-stage study where all subjects are genotyped on the genome-wide panel yet can be much less expensive. Typically, the "most promising" markers are selected based on evidence for a marginal association between genotypes and disease. Subsequently, the few markers found to be associated with disease at the end of the second stage are interrogated for evidence of gene-environment interaction, mainly to understand their impact on disease etiology and public health impact. However, this approach may miss variants which have a sizeable effect restricted to one exposure stratum and therefore only a modest marginal effect. We have proposed to use information on the joint effects of genes and a discrete list of environmental exposures at the initial screening stage to select promising markers for the second stage [Kraft et al Hum Hered 2007]. This approach optimizes power to detect variants that have a sizeable marginal effect and variants that have a small marginal effect but a sizeable effect in a stratum defined by an environmental exposure. As an example, I discuss a proposed genome-wide association scan for Type II diabetes susceptibility variants based in several large nested case-control studies. Beate Glaser 1 , Peter Holmans 158 Biostatistics and Bioinformatics Unit, Cardiff University, School of Medicine, Heath Park, Cardiff, UK Keywords: Combined case-control and trios analysis, Power, False-positive rate, Simulation, Association studies The statistical power of genetic association studies can be enhanced by combining the analysis of case-control with parent-offspring trio samples. Various combined analysis techniques have been recently developed; as yet, there have been no comparisons of their power. This work was performed with the aim of identifying the most powerful method among available combined techniques including test statistics developed by Kazeem and Farrall (2005), Nagelkerke and colleagues (2004) and Dudbridge (2006), as well as a simple combination of ,2-statistics from single samples. Simulation studies were performed to investigate their power under different additive, multiplicative, dominant and recessive disease models. False-positive rates were determined by studying the type I error rates under null models including models with unequal allele frequencies between the single case-control and trios samples. We identified three techniques with equivalent power and false-positive rates, which included modifications of the three main approaches: 1) the unmodified combined Odds ratio estimate by Kazeem & Farrall (2005), 2) a modified approach of the combined risk ratio estimate by Nagelkerke & colleagues (2004) and 3) a modified technique for a combined risk ratio estimate by Dudbridge (2006). Our work highlights the importance of studies investigating test performance criteria of novel methods, as they will help users to select the optimal approach within a range of available analysis techniques. David Almorza 1 , M.V. Kandus 2 , Juan Carlos Salerno 2 , Rafael Boggio 359 Facultad de Ciencias del Trabajo, University of Cádiz, Spain 60 Instituto de Genética IGEAF, Buenos Aires, Argentina 61 Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina Keywords: Principal component analysis, maize, ear weight, inbred lines The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship among different traits of the ear of maize inbred lines and to group genotypes according to its performance. Ten inbred lines developed at IGEAF (INTA Castelar) and five public inbred lines as checks were used. A field trial was carried out in Castelar, Buenos Aires (34° 36' S , 58° 39' W) using a complete randomize design with three replications. At harvest, individual weight (P.E.), diameter (D.E.), row number (N.H.) and length (L.E.) of the ear were assessed. A principal component analysis, PCA, (Infostat 2005) was used, and the variability of the data was depicted with a biplot. Principal components 1 and 2 (CP1 and CP2) explained 90% of the data variability. CP1 was correlated with P.E., L.E. and D.E., meanwhile CP2 was correlated with N.H. We found that individual weight (P.E.) was more correlated with diameter of the ear (D.E.) than with length (L.E). Five groups of inbred lines were distinguished: with high P.E. and mean N.H. (04-70, 04-73, 04-101 and MO17), with high P.E. but less N.H. (04-61 and B14), with mean P.E. and N.H. (B73, 04-123 and 04-96), with high N.H. but less P.E. (LP109, 04-8, 04-91 and 04-76) and with low P.E. and low N.H. (LP521 and 04-104). The use of PCA showed which variables had more incidence in ear weight and how is the correlation among them. Moreover, the different groups found with this analysis allow the evaluation of inbred lines by several traits simultaneously. Sven Knüppel 1 , Anja Bauerfeind 1 , Klaus Rohde 162 Department of Bioinformatics, MDC Berlin, Germany Keywords: Haplotypes, association studies, case-control, nuclear families The area of gene chip technology provides a plethora of phase-unknown SNP genotypes in order to find significant association to some genetic trait. To circumvent possibly low information content of a single SNP one groups successive SNPs and estimates haplotypes. Haplotype estimation, however, may reveal ambiguous haplotype pairs and bias the application of statistical methods. Zaykin et al. (Hum Hered, 53:79-91, 2002) proposed the construction of a design matrix to take this ambiguity into account. Here we present a set of functions written for the Statistical package R, which carries out haplotype estimation on the basis of the EM-algorithm for individuals (case-control) or nuclear families. The construction of a design matrix on basis of estimated haplotypes or haplotype pairs allows application of standard methods for association studies (linear, logistic regression), as well as statistical methods as haplotype sharing statistics and TDT-Test. Applications of these methods to genome-wide association screens will be demonstrated. Manuela Zucknick 1 , Chris Holmes 2 , Sylvia Richardson 163 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, UK 64 Department of Statistics, Oxford Center for Gene Function, University of Oxford, UK Keywords: Bayesian, variable selection, MCMC, large p, small n, structured dependence In large-scale genomic applications vast numbers of markers or genes are scanned to find a few candidates which are linked to a particular phenotype. Statistically, this is a variable selection problem in the "large p, small n" situation where many more variables than samples are available. An additional feature is the complex dependence structure which is often observed among the markers/genes due to linkage disequilibrium or their joint involvement in biological processes. Bayesian variable selection methods using indicator variables are well suited to the problem. Binary phenotypes like disease status are common and both Bayesian probit and logistic regression can be applied in this context. We argue that logistic regression models are both easier to tune and to interpret than probit models and implement the approach by Holmes & Held (2006). Because the model space is vast, MCMC methods are used as stochastic search algorithms with the aim to quickly find regions of high posterior probability. In a trade-off between fast-updating but slow-moving single-gene Metropolis-Hastings samplers and computationally expensive full Gibbs sampling, we propose to employ the dependence structure among the genes/markers to help decide which variables to update together. Also, parallel tempering methods are used to aid bold moves and help avoid getting trapped in local optima. Mixing and convergence of the resulting Markov chains are evaluated and compared to standard samplers in both a simulation study and in an application to a gene expression data set. Reference Holmes, C. C. & Held, L. (2006) Bayesian auxiliary variable models for binary and multinomial regression. Bayesian Analysis1, 145,168. Dawn Teare 165 MMGE, University of Sheffield, UK Keywords: CNP, family-based analysis, MCMC Evidence is accumulating that segmental copy number polymorphisms (CNPs) may represent a significant portion of human genetic variation. These highly polymorphic systems require handling as phenotypes rather than co-dominant markers, placing new demands on family-based analyses. We present an integrated approach to meet these challenges in the form of a graphical model, where the underlying discrete CNP phenotype is inferred from the (single or replicate) quantitative measure within the analysis, whilst assuming an allele based system segregating through the pedigree. [source] Book Review: A Reason for Everything: Natural Selection and the English Imagination.BIOESSAYS, Issue 6 2006Joăo Dinis de Sousa No abstract is available for this article. [source] Are ecological and evolutionary theories scientific?BIOLOGICAL REVIEWS, Issue 2 2001BERTRAM G. MURRAY Jr. ABSTRACT Scientists observe nature, search for generalizations, and provide explanations for why the world is as it is. Generalizations are of two kinds. The first are descriptive and inductive, such as Boyle's Law. They are derived from observations and therefore refer to observables (in this case, pressure and volume). The second are often imaginative and form the axioms of a deductive theory, such as Newton's Laws of Motion. They often refer to unobservables (e.g. inertia and gravitation). Biology has many inductive generalizations (e.g. Bergmann's Rule and ,all cells arise from preexisting cells') but few, if any, recognized universal laws and virtually no deductive theory. Many biologists and philosophers of biology have agreed that predictive theory is inappropriate in biology, which is said to be more complex than physics, and that one can have nonpredictive explanations, such as the neo-Darwinian Theory of Evolution by Natural Selection. Other philosophers dismiss nonpredictive, explanatory theories, including evolutionary ,theory', as metaphysics. Most biologists do not think of themselves as philosophers or give much thought to the philosophical basis of their research. Nevertheless, their philosophy shows in the way they do research. The plethora of ad hoc (i.e. not universal) hypotheses indicates that biologists are reluctant inductivists in that the search for generalization does not have a high priority. Biologists test their hypotheses by verification. Theoretical physicists, in contrast, are deductive unifiers and test their explanatory hypotheses by falsification. I argue that theoretical biology (concerned with unobservables, such as fitness and natural selection) is not scientific because it lacks universal laws and predictive theory. In order to make this argument, I review the differences between verificationism and falsificationism, induction and deduction, and descriptive and explanatory laws. I show how these differ with a specific example of a successful and still useful (even if now superseded as explanatory) deductive theory, Newton's Theory of Motion. I also review some of the philosophical views expressed on these topics because philosophers seem to be even more divided than biologists, which is not at all helpful. The fact that biology does not have predictive theories does not constitute irrefutable evidence that it cannot have them. The only way to falsify this philosophical hypothesis, however, is to produce a predictive theory with universal biological laws. I have proposed such a theory, but it has been presented piecemeal. At the end of this paper, I bring the pieces together into a deductive theory on the evolution of life history traits (e.g. clutch size, mating relationships, sexual size dimorphism). [source] Variation, Natural Selection, and Information Content , A SimulationCHEMISTRY & BIODIVERSITY, Issue 10 2007Bernard Testa Abstract In Neo-Darwinism, variation and natural selection are the two evolutionary mechanisms that propel biological evolution. Variation implies changes in the gene pool of a population, enlarging the genetic variability from which natural selection can choose. But in the absence of natural selection, variation causes dissipation and randomization. Natural selection, in contrast, constrains this variability by decreasing the survival and fertility of the less-adapted organisms. The objective of this study is to propose a highly simplified simulation of variation and natural selection, and to relate the observed evolutionary changes in a population to its information content. The model involves an imaginary population of individuals. A quantifiable character allows the individuals to be categorized into bins. The distribution of bins (a histogram) was assumed to be Gaussian. The content of each bin was calculated after one to twelve cycles, each cycle spanning N generations (N being undefined). In a first study, selection was simulated in the absence of variation. This was modeled by assuming a differential fertility factor F that increased linearly from the lower bins (F<1.00) to the higher bins (F>1.00). The fertility factor was applied as a multiplication factor during each cycle. Several ranges of fertility were investigated. The resulting histograms became skewed to the right. In a second study, variation was simulated in the absence of selection. This was modeled by assuming that during each cycle each bin lost a fixed percentage of its content (variation factor Y) to its two adjacent bins. The resulting histograms became broader and flatter, while retaining their bilateral symmetry. Different values of Y were monitored. In a third study, various values of F and Y were combined. Our model allows the straightforward application of Shannon's equation and the calculation of a Shannon -entropy (SE) values for each histogram. Natural selection was, thus, shown to result in a progressive decrease in SE as a function of F. In other words, natural selection, when acting alone, progressively increased the information content of the population. In contrast, variation resulted in a progressive increase in SE as a function of Y. In other words, variation acting alone progressively decreased the information content of a population. When both factors, F and Y, were applied simultaneously, their relative weight determined the progressive change in SE. [source] Experimental evolution of dispersal in spatiotemporally variable microcosmsECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 10 2003Nicholas A. Friedenberg Abstract The world is an uncertain place. Individuals' fates vary from place to place and from time to time. Natural selection in unpredictable environments should favour individuals that hedge their bets by dispersing offspring. I confirm this basic prediction using Caenorhabditis elegans in experimental microcosms. My results agree with evolutionary models and correlations found previously between habitat stability and individual dispersal propensity in nature. However, I also find that environmental variation that triggers conditional dispersal behaviour may not impose selection on baseline dispersal rates. These findings imply that an increased rate of disturbance in natural systems has the potential to cause an evolutionary response in the life history of impacted organisms. [source] DOES MATE LIMITATION IN SELF-INCOMPATIBLE SPECIES PROMOTE THE EVOLUTION OF SELFING?EVOLUTION, Issue 6 2010THE CASE OF LEAVENWORTHIA ALABAMICA Genetic diversity at the S-locus controlling self-incompatibility (SI) is often high because of negative frequency-dependent selection. In species with highly patchy spatial distributions, genetic drift can overwhelm balancing selection and cause stochastic loss of S-alleles. Natural selection may favor the breakdown of SI in populations with few S-alleles because low S-allele diversity constrains the seed production of self-incompatible plants. We estimated S-allele diversity, effective population sizes, and migration rates in Leavenworthia alabamica, a self-incompatible mustard species restricted to discrete habitat patches in rocky glades. Patterns of polymorphism were investigated at the S-locus and 15 neutral microsatellites in three large and three small populations with 100-fold variation in glade size. Populations on larger glades maintained more S-alleles, but all populations were estimated to harbor at least 20 S-alleles, and mate availabilities typically exceeded 0.80, which is consistent with little mate limitation in nature. Estimates of the effective size (Ne) in each population ranged from 600 to 1600, and estimated rates of migration (m) ranged from 3 × 10,4 to nearly 1 × 10,3. According to theoretical models, there is limited opportunity for genetic drift to reduce S-allele diversity in populations with these attributes. Although pollinators or resources limit seed production in small glades, limited S-allele diversity does not appear to be a factor promoting the incipient breakdown of SI in populations of this species that were studied. [source] ON THE EVOLUTION OF HARMING AND RECOGNITION IN FINITE PANMICTIC AND INFINITE STRUCTURED POPULATIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 11 2009Laurent Lehmann Natural selection may favor two very different types of social behaviors that have costs in vital rates (fecundity and/or survival) to the actor: helping behaviors, which increase the vital rates of recipients, and harming behaviors, which reduce the vital rates of recipients. Although social evolutionary theory has mainly dealt with helping behaviors, competition for limited resources creates ecological conditions in which an actor may benefit from expressing behaviors that reduce the vital rates of neighbors. This may occur if the reduction in vital rates decreases the intensity of competition experienced by the actor or that experienced by its offspring. Here, we explore the joint evolution of neutral recognition markers and marker-based costly conditional harming whereby actors express harming, conditional on actor and recipient bearing different conspicuous markers. We do so for two complementary demographic scenarios: finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. We find that marker-based conditional harming can evolve under a large range of recombination rates and group sizes under both finite panmictic and infinite structured populations. A direct comparison with results for the evolution of marker-based conditional helping reveals that, if everything else is equal, marker-based conditional harming is often more likely to evolve than marker-based conditional helping. [source] Morphological variation over ontogeny and environments in resource polymorphic arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus)EVOLUTION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 3 2010Kevin J. Parsons SUMMARY Natural selection requires genetically based phenotypic variation to facilitate its action and cause adaptive evolution. It has become increasingly recognized that morphological development can become canalized likely as a result of selection. However, it is largely unknown how selection may influence canalization over ontogeny and differing environments. Changes in environments or colonization of a novel one is expected to result in adaptive divergence from the ancestral population when selection favors a new phenotypic optimum. In turn, a novel environment may also expose variation previously hidden from natural selection. We tested for changes in phenotypic variation over ontogeny and environments among ecomorphs of Arctic charr (Salvelinus alpinus) from two Icelandic lakes. Populations represented varying degrees of ecological specialization, with one lake population possessing highly specialized ecomorphs exhibiting a large degree of phenotypic divergence, whereas the other displayed more subtle divergence with more ecological overlap. Here we show that ecomorphs hypothesized to be the most specialized in each lake possess significant reductions in shape variation over ontogeny regardless of environmental treatment suggesting canalized development. However, environments did change the amount of shape variation expressed in these ecomorphs, with novel environments slowing the rate at which variation was reduced over ontogeny. Thus, environmental conditions may play an important role in determining the type and amount of genetically based phenotypic variation exposed to natural selection. [source] Natural selection shines the spotlight on mothers and infantsEVOLUTIONARY ANTHROPOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Jeanne Altmann No abstract is available for this article. [source] Ontogenetic selection on hatchery salmon in the wild: natural selection on artificial phenotypesEVOLUTIONARY APPLICATIONS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 4 2010Michael M. Bailey Abstract Captive rearing often alters the phenotypes of organisms that are destined for release into the wild. Natural selection on these unnatural phenotypes could have important consequences for the utility of captive rearing as a restoration approach. We show that normal hatchery practices significantly advance the development of endangered Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) fry by 30+ days. As a result, hatchery fry might be expected to face strong natural selection resulting from their developmental asynchrony. We investigated patterns of ontogenetic selection acting on hatchery produced salmon fry by experimentally manipulating fry development stage at stocking. Contrary to simple predictions, we found evidence for strong stabilizing selection on the ontogeny of unfed hatchery fry, with weaker evidence for positive directional selection on the ontogeny of fed fry. These selection patterns suggest a seasonally independent tradeoff between abiotic or biotic selection favoring advanced development and physiological selection linked to risk of starvation in unfed fry. We show, through a heuristic exercise, how such selection on ontogeny may exacerbate problems in restoration efforts by impairing fry productivity and reducing effective population sizes by 13,81%. [source] Climate predictability and breeding phenology in red deer: timing and synchrony of rutting and calving in Norway and FranceJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2005L. E. LOE Summary 1Timing and synchrony of reproduction are regarded as crucially important factors for fitness in seasonal environments. Natural selection has probably favoured temperate and arctic female herbivores that match reproduction with onset of plant growth in spring. However, breeding synchrony may also be affected by variation in phenotypic quality of females in a population, because females in poor body condition have been found to delay ovulation and subsequent calving. 2We compared breeding phenology, i.e. the timing and synchrony of rutting (roaring, sexual aggregation) and calving of red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) in France (latitude: 49°N) and Norway (latitude: 63°N). We hypothesized (H1) that calving and rutting were later at the site with latest onset of plant growth. 3We further quantified overall environmental predictability as the sum of annual constancy and seasonality and tested three different (not mutually exclusive) hypotheses about breeding synchrony: (H2a) the population experiencing most seasonal plant phenology should show the highest breeding synchrony; (H2b) overall predictability of plant phenology should determine breeding synchrony; and (H2c) breeding should be more synchronized in the population with lowest female body weight variation within age classes because they ovulate more synchronously. 4Calving and rutting, as well as onset of plant phenology, were later in Norway than in France, complying with the first hypothesis. Plant growth in spring was overall more predictable and also more seasonal in Norway than France. Hence we expected higher breeding synchrony in Norway than in France according to H2a and H2b. Variance in female body weight was slightly higher in France than in Norway, which should also cause more synchronized breeding in Norway than in France (H2c). Contrary to all predictions, variance in rutting and calving dates was around two times higher in Norway than in France. 5We suggest two alternative explanations of breeding synchrony. A more variable topography in Norway can make optimal birth date more variable on a local scale than in France, thereby maintaining a higher genetic variance for calving date in Norwegian red deer. Further, population age structure may play a role, as ovulation varies according to female age. Clearly, processes of breeding synchrony are far more complex than previously realized. [source] Food limitation explains most clutch size variation in the Nazca boobyJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2001L. D. Clifford Summary 1,Natural selection is expected to optimize clutch size, but intrapopulation variation is maintained in many bird species. The Nazca booby provides a simple system in which to investigate clutch size evolution because clutch size and brood size are decoupled due to obligate siblicide. The indirect effect of brood size on clutch size evolution can therefore be eliminated. 2,In Nazca boobies, second eggs provide insurance against the failure of the first egg or early death of the first hatchling, but approximately half of all females lay only one egg. We tested the hypothesis that one-egg clutches result from food limitation by providing female Nazca boobies with supplemental food. 3,A higher proportion of supplemented females produced two-egg clutches than did control females. Supplemented females produced larger second-laid eggs than did control females, but not first-laid eggs. Laying date and laying interval were not affected. 4,Comparisons of clutch size and egg volume between years indicated that the supplemental feeding experiment was not conducted in a year with a poor natural food supply. Thus supplemented females produced larger clutch sizes despite apparently normal natural food levels. 5,This experiment nearly completes our understanding of clutch size variation in the Nazca booby, and indicates that food limitation and the costs of egg-laying should be considered carefully in studies of clutch size evolution. [source] A general model of the public goods dilemmaJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2010S. A. Frank Abstract An individually costly act that benefits all group members is a public good. Natural selection favours individual contribution to public goods only when some benefit to the individual offsets the cost of contribution. Problems of sex ratio, parasite virulence, microbial metabolism, punishment of noncooperators, and nearly all aspects of sociality have been analysed as public goods shaped by kin and group selection. Here, I develop two general aspects of the public goods problem that have received relatively little attention. First, variation in individual resources favours selfish individuals to vary their allocation to public goods. Those individuals better endowed contribute their excess resources to public benefit, whereas those individuals with fewer resources contribute less to the public good. Thus, purely selfish behaviour causes individuals to stratify into upper classes that contribute greatly to public benefit and social cohesion and to lower classes that contribute little to the public good. Second, if group success absolutely requires production of the public good, then the pressure favouring production is relatively high. By contrast, if group success depends weakly on the public good, then the pressure favouring production is relatively weak. Stated in this way, it is obvious that the role of baseline success is important. However, discussions of public goods problems sometimes fail to emphasize this point sufficiently. The models here suggest simple tests for the roles of resource variation and baseline success. Given the widespread importance of public goods, better models and tests would greatly deepen our understanding of many processes in biology and sociality. [source] Local adaptation at the range peripheries of Sitka spruceJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010M. MIMURA Abstract High-dispersal rates in heterogeneous environments and historical rapid range expansion can hamper local adaptation; however, we often see clinal variation in high-dispersal tree species. To understand the mechanisms of the species' distribution, we investigated local adaptation and adaptive plasticity in a range-wide context in Sitka spruce, a wind-pollinated tree species that has recently expanded its range after glaciations. Phenotypic traits were observed using growth chamber experiments that mimicked temperature and photoperiodic regimes from the limits of the species realized niche. Bud phenology exhibited parallel reaction norms among populations; however, putatively adaptive plasticity and strong divergent selection were seen in bud burst and bud set timing respectively. Natural selection appears to have favoured genotypes that maximize growth rate during available frost-free periods in each environment. We conclude that Sitka spruce has developed local adaptation and adaptive plasticity throughout its range in response to current climatic conditions despite generally high pollen flow and recent range expansion. [source] Natural selection maximizes Fisher informationJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2009S. A. FRANK Abstract In biology, information flows from the environment to the genome by the process of natural selection. However, it has not been clear precisely what sort of information metric properly describes natural selection. Here, I show that Fisher information arises as the intrinsic metric of natural selection and evolutionary dynamics. Maximizing the amount of Fisher information about the environment captured by the population leads to Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection, the most profound statement about how natural selection influences evolutionary dynamics. I also show a relation between Fisher information and Shannon information (entropy) that may help to unify the correspondence between information and dynamics. Finally, I discuss possible connections between the fundamental role of Fisher information in statistics, biology and other fields of science. [source] Five questions on ecological speciation addressed with individual-based simulationsJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2009X. THIBERT-PLANTE Abstract We use an individual-based simulation model to investigate factors influencing progress toward ecological speciation. We find that environmental differences can quickly lead to the evolution of substantial reproductive barriers between a population colonizing a new environment and the ancestral population in the old environment. Natural selection against immigrants and hybrids was a major contributor to this isolation, but the evolution of sexual preference was also important. Increasing dispersal had both positive and negative effects on population size in the new environment and had positive effects on natural selection against immigrants and hybrids. Genetic divergence at unlinked, neutral genetic markers was low, except when environmental differences were large and sexual preference was present. Our results highlight the importance of divergent selection and adaptive divergence for ecological speciation. At the same time, they reveal several interesting nonlinearities in interactions between environmental differences, sexual preference, dispersal and population size. [source] Development and evaluation of the conceptual inventory of natural selectionJOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN SCIENCE TEACHING, Issue 10 2002Dianne L. Anderson Natural selection as a mechanism of evolution is a central concept in biology; yet, most nonbiology-majors do not thoroughly understand the theory even after instruction. Many alternative conceptions on this topic have been identified, indicating that the job of the instructor is a difficult one. This article presents a new diagnostic test to assess students' understanding of natural selection. The test items are based on actual scientific studies of natural selection, whereas previous tests have employed hypothetical situations that were often misleading or oversimplified. The Conceptual Inventory of Natural Selection (CINS) is a 20-item multiple choice test that employs common alternative conceptions as distractors. An original 12-item version of the test was field-tested with 170 nonmajors in 6 classes and 43 biology majors in 1 class at 3 community colleges. The test scores of one subset of nonmajors (n,=,7) were compared with the students' performances in semistructured interviews. There was a positive correlation between the test scores and the interview scores. The current 20-item version of the CINS was field-tested with 206 students in a nonmajors' general biology course. The face validity, internal validity, reliability, and readability of the CINS are discussed. Results indicate that the CINS will be a valuable tool for instructors. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Res Sci Teach 39: 952,978, 2002 [source] Phylogeography and environmental correlates of a cap on reproduction: teat number in a small marsupial, Antechinus agilisMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2007J. BECKMAN Abstract Natural selection should optimize litter size in response to the distribution and abundance of resources during breeding. In semelparous, litter-bearing antechinuses, teat number limits litter size. Consequently adaptation has been inferred in explaining intraspecific, geographic variability in teat number for several Antechinus spp. The phylogeography of teat number variation and associated genetic divergence were assessed in A. agilis using nine microsatellites and mitochondrial cytochrome b sequence data. Six-teat Otway Range animals were divergent in microsatellite allele identity and frequencies: samples from three Otway six-teat sites demonstrated significantly greater similarity genetically to those from six-teat animals ,250 km to the west, than to nearby Otway 10-teat samples, or to the six-teat animals at Wilsons Promontory. Gene flow between Otway phenotypes appears to have been limited for sufficient time to enable different microsatellite alleles to evolve. Nonetheless, nuclear genetic evidence suggested only incomplete reproductive isolation, and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotypes showed no association with teat number. Other populations across the range were no more genetically differentiated from one another than expected from geographic separation. Principal components and distance-based redundancy analyses found an association between environmental variables and geographic distribution of A. agilis teat number , six-teat animals inhabit more temperate forests, whilst those with more teats experience greater seasonality. The apparent restricted breeding between phenotypically distinct animals, together with phylogenetically separate groups of six-teat animals in different locations with similar environments, are consistent with the hypothesis that adaptation to different habitats drives teat number variation in A. agilis. [source] Natural selection for salt tolerance quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in wild sunflower hybrids: Implications for the origin of Helianthus paradoxus, a diploid hybrid speciesMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2003C. Lexer Abstract For a new diploid or homoploid hybrid species to become established, it must diverge ecologically from parental genotypes. Otherwise the hybrid neospecies will be overcome by gene flow or competition. We initiated a series of experiments designed to understand how the homoploid hybrid species, Helianthus paradoxus, was able to colonize salt marsh habitats, when both of its parental species (H. annuus×H. petiolaris) are salt sensitive. Here, we report on the results of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) analysis of mineral ion uptake traits and survivorship in 172 BC2 hybrids between H. annuus and H. petiolaris that were planted in H. paradoxus salt marsh habitat in New Mexico. A total of 14 QTLs were detected for mineral ion uptake traits and three for survivorship. Several mineral ion QTLs mapped to the same position as the survivorship QTLs, confirming previous studies, which indicated that salt tolerance in Helianthus is achieved through increased Ca uptake, coupled with greater exclusion of Na and related mineral ions. Of greater general significance was the observation that QTLs with effects in opposing directions were found for survivorship and for all mineral ion uptake traits with more than one detected QTL. This genetic architecture provides an ideal substrate for rapid ecological divergence in hybrid neospecies and offers a simple explanation for the colonization of salt marsh habitats by H. paradoxus. Finally, selection coefficients of +0.126, ,0.084 and ,0.094 for the three survivorship QTLs, respectively, are sufficiently large to account for establishment of new, homoploid hybrid species. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||