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Multistate Capture (multistate + capture)
Selected AbstractsPulsed resources affect the timing of first breeding and lifetime reproductive success of tawny owlsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2010A. Millon Summary 1.,According to life-history theory, environmental variability and costs of reproduction account for the prevalence of delayed reproduction in many taxa. Empirical estimates of the fitness consequences of different ages at first breeding in a variable environment are few however such that the contributions of environmental and individual variability remains poorly known. 2.,Our objectives were to elucidate processes that underpin variation in delayed reproduction and to assess lifetime consequences of the age of first breeding in a site-faithful predator, the tawny owl Strix aluco L. subjected to fluctuating selection linked to cyclical variation in vole density (typically 3-year cycles with low, increasing and decreasing vole densities in successive years). 3.,A multistate capture,recapture model revealed that owl cohorts had strikingly different juvenile survival prospects, with estimates ranging from 0·08 to 0·33 respectively for birds born in Decrease and Increase phases of the vole cycle. This resulted in a highly skewed population structure with >75% of local recruits being reared during Increase years. In contrast, adult survival remained constant throughout a vole cycle. The probability of commencing reproduction was lower at age 1 than at older ages, and especially so for females. From age 2 onwards, pre-breeders had high probabilities of entering the breeding population. 4.,Variation in lifetime reproductive success was driven by the phase of the vole cycle in which female owls started their breeding career (26,47% of variance explained, whether based on the number of local recruits or fledglings), more than by age at first breeding or by conditions experienced at birth. Females who postponed reproduction to breed for the first time at age 3 during an Increase phase, produced more recruits, even when accounting for birds that may have died before reproduction. No such effects were detected for males. 5.,Sex-specific costs of early reproduction may have accounted for females being more prone to delay reproduction. Contrary to expectations from a best-of-a-bad job strategy, early-hatched, hence potentially higher-quality females were more likely to breed at age 1, but then experienced rapidly declining food resources and so seemed caught in a life-history trap set by the multiannual vole cycle. [source] Effect of current reproduction on apparent survival, breeding dispersal, and future reproduction in barn swallows assessed by multistate capture,recapture modelsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2009Michael Schaub Summary 1Theoretical models predict a negative effect of current reproduction on breeding dispersal, survival and future reproduction, and many studies confirm these predictions. Yet, results of most previous studies may be difficult to interpret because the fate of the affected individuals cannot always be observed. Detection is almost always imperfect and some individuals emigrate from the study area, resulting in biased estimates of both survival and dispersal. 2Most studies bypass these problems with strong assumptions. We use a multistate capture,recapture model that does not require these assumptions. States are defined based on classes of reproductive success and on observed dispersal events within the study area. By accounting for imperfect detection within the study area, the model allows estimation of the effect of reproductive success on apparent survival, dispersal probabilities within the study area and the annual transition probabilities among classes of reproductive success. Based on an assumption about the estimate of real survival, the model allows the estimation of total dispersal that is not specific to a fixed study area. 3We applied this model to capture,recapture data of 2262 adult barn swallows (Hirundo rustica) sampled from 1997,2004 in eight local populations in Switzerland. 4We found that dispersal within the study area decreased with increasing reproductive success in both sexes, that reproductive success was not affected by preceding dispersal and that apparent survival of females but not of males increased with increasing reproductive success. Apparent survival of females with high reproductive success was identical to apparent survival of males suggesting that this estimate of apparent survival (0·48) was close to true survival. Total breeding dispersal was generally higher in females and it increased with decreasing reproductive success in both sexes. Current reproductive success depended on reproductive success in the preceding year suggesting that individual differences were of importance. 5Our study highlights that reproductive success was an important factor affecting breeding dispersal and population turnover. While unsuccessful males mainly remained in the local populations, many unsuccessful females left them. Population turnover of adult swallows was mainly due to unsuccessful females. [source] Assessment of hypotheses about dispersal in a long-lived seabird using multistate capture,recapture modelsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2004Emmanuelle Cam Summary 1Dispersal contributes to spatio-temporal variation in population size and is a key process in studies of life history evolution and studies with conservation implications. However, dispersal is still one of the major gaps in our knowledge of ecological dynamics. The very large literature on metapopulation dynamics lacks empirical bases on dispersal and relevant behavioural parameters. We used multistate capture,recapture models (data from 1988 to 2001) to address hypotheses about movement probability and habitat selection within a system of two breeding colonies in Audouin's gulls (Larus audouinii), an endemic species breeding in the Mediterranean and considered as threatened. 2Movement probability varied over time, and differed greatly between the colonies. 3We did not find evidence of an influence of colony size or density of predators on movement probability. 4In dispersers, our results did not support the hypotheses that movement probability between year t and t+ 1 was influenced by mean breeding success in the colony of origin (i.e. an indicator of habitat quality) or the destination colony in year t or t+ 1, or by the ratio of breeding success in these colonies in year t or t + 1 (i.e. quality gradient). 5Overall, movement probability was higher from the smaller colony to the larger, and from the colony with lower breeding success in year t to the more productive one. This provides slight support for two nonexclusive hypotheses about habitat selection (conspecific attraction and conspecific success attraction). 6Movement probability from the smaller, less productive colony was very high in some years, suggesting that the dynamics of both colonies were strongly influenced by adult dispersal. However, in absolute numbers, more individuals moved from the larger, more productive colony to the smaller one. This suggests that the system may function as a source,sink system. 7Use of multistate models to re-assess local survival showed that survival was lower in the less productive colony with higher emigration probability. This may reflect genuine differences in mortality between colonies, or more probably differences in permanent emigration from the study area. [source] Estimating survival and movements using both live and dead recoveries: a case study of oystercatchers confronted with habitat changeJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2009Olivier Duriez Summary 1Animals facing partial habitat loss can try to survive in the remaining habitat or emigrate. Effects on survival and movements should be studied simultaneously since survival rates may be underestimated if emigrants are not considered, and since emigrants may experience reduced survival. 2We analysed movements and survival of adult wintering oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus in response to the 1986,1987 partial closure of the Oosterschelde in the Dutch Delta. This reduced by one-third the tidal area of this major European wintering area for waders. 3We developed a novel variant of a multistate capture,recapture model allowing simultaneous estimation of survival and movement between sites using a mixture of data (live recaptures and dead recoveries). We used a two-step process, first estimating movements between sites followed by site-specific survival rates. 4Most birds were faithful to their ringing site. Winter survival was negatively affected by winter severity and was lowest among birds changing wintering site (i.e. moving outside of the Oosterschelde). 5During mild winters, survival rates were very high, and similar to before the closure in both changed and unchanged sectors of the Oosterschelde. However, the combined effect of habitat loss with severe winters decreased the survival of birds from changed sectors and induced emigration. 6The coastal engineering project coincided with three severe winters and high food stock, making assessment of its effects difficult. However, the habitat loss seems to have had less impact on adult survival and movements than did winter severity. 7 Synthesis and applications. Human-induced habitat change may result in population decline through costly emigration or reduced survival or reproduction of individuals that stay. Long-term monitoring of marked individuals helps to understand how populations respond to environmental change, but site-specific survival and movement rates should be integrated in the same model in order to maximize the information yield. Our modelling approach facilitates this because it allows the inclusion of recoveries from outside the study area. [source] | ||||||||||