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Monetary Model (monetary + model)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	75%

Selected Abstracts

Managed Floating in Australia,

ECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 4 2009
Shawn Chen-Yu Leu
F31; F41 This paper evaluates the level of managed floating and the exchange rate policy in Australia during the officially floating period from 1984 to 2004. We construct index measures of exchange market pressure and foreign exchange intervention using a small open economy monetary model. The estimation uses the Johansen cointegration method as the structural macroeconomic model is assumed to represent long-run equilibrium relationships. We find that the RBA mainly implemented leaning-against-the-wind exchange rate policy that aimed at guiding the exchange rate back to the equilibrium value while reducing the variability of the dynamic adjustment path. [source]

Tracking the Euro's Progress

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2000
Menzie D. Chinn
The evolution of the euro since its inception has appeared inexplicable. This paper develops a monetary model of the euro/US dollar exchange rate to track the progress of the currency, both before and after Stage 3 EMU. The relationship between the exchange rate, money stocks, GDP, interest and inflation rates, and prices is identified. The observed patterns of behaviour during the 1990s are used to predict the euro's value up to mid-2000; a consistent finding is that the euro is over-predicted by 23,30%. This finding is robust to the use of alternative sample periods and alternative estimation methodologies, as long as each of the variables is treated as endogenous. This monetary model does not give much weight to factors such as productivity. However, the past evolution of European exchange rates suggests that productivity trends are indeed important. Some estimates suggest that an annual one percentage point in the intercountry differential in tradable-nontradable productivity causes a 0.85'1.7% real appreciation of a currency. [source]

Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2008
Ron Alquist
Abstract We examine the relative predictive power of the sticky price monetary model, uncovered interest parity, and a transformation of net exports and net foreign assets. In addition to bringing Gourinchas and Rey's new approach and more recent data to bear, we implement the Clark,West procedure for testing the significance of out-of-sample forecasts. The interest rate parity relation holds better at long horizons and the net exports variable does well in predicting exchange rates at short horizons in sample. In out-of-sample forecasts, we find evidence that our proxy for Gourinchas and Rey's measure of external imbalances outperforms a random walk at short horizons as do some of the other models, although no single model uniformly beats the random walk forecast. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Can panel data really improve the predictability of the monetary exchange rate model?

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 5 2007
Joakim Westerlund
Abstract A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power argument to the use of panel data in the forecasting context. In particular, by using simulations it is shown that although pooling of the individual prediction tests can lead to substantial power gains, pooling only the parameters of the forecasting equation, as has been suggested in the previous literature, does not seem to generate more powerful tests. The simulation results are illustrated through an empirical application. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]