Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
Model Estimates (model + estimate)
Selected AbstractsCarbon storage and fluxes in ponderosa pine forests at different developmental stagesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2001B.E. Law Abstract We compared carbon storage and fluxes in young and old ponderosa pine stands in Oregon, including plant and soil storage, net primary productivity, respiration fluxes, eddy flux estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and Biome-BGC simulations of fluxes. The young forest (Y site) was previously an old-growth ponderosa pine forest that had been clearcut in 1978, and the old forest (O site), which has never been logged, consists of two primary age classes (50 and 250 years old). Total ecosystem carbon content (vegetation, detritus and soil) of the O forest was about twice that of the Y site (21 vs. 10 kg C m,2 ground), and significantly more of the total is stored in living vegetation at the O site (61% vs. 15%). Ecosystem respiration (Re) was higher at the O site (1014 vs. 835 g C m,2 year,1), and it was largely from soils at both sites (77% of Re). The biological data show that above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), NPP and net ecosystem production (NEP) were greater at the O site than the Y site. Monte Carlo estimates of NEP show that the young site is a source of CO2 to the atmosphere, and is significantly lower than NEP(O) by c. 100 g C m,2 year,1. Eddy covariance measurements also show that the O site was a stronger sink for CO2 than the Y site. Across a 15-km swath in the region, ANPP ranged from 76 g C m,2 year,1 at the Y site to 236 g C m,2 year,1 (overall mean 158 ± 14 g C m,2 year,1). The lowest ANPP values were for the youngest and oldest stands, but there was a large range of ANPP for mature stands. Carbon, water and nitrogen cycle simulations with the Biome-BGC model suggest that disturbance type and frequency, time since disturbance, age-dependent changes in below-ground allocation, and increasing atmospheric concentration of CO2 all exert significant control on the net ecosystem exchange of carbon at the two sites. Model estimates of major carbon flux components agree with budget-based observations to within ±,20%, with larger differences for NEP and for several storage terms. Simulations showed the period of regrowth required to replace carbon lost during and after a stand-replacing fire (O) or a clearcut (Y) to be between 50 and 100 years. In both cases, simulations showed a shift from net carbon source to net sink (on an annual basis) 10,20 years after disturbance. These results suggest that the net ecosystem production of young stands may be low because heterotrophic respiration, particularly from soils, is higher than the NPP of the regrowth. The amount of carbon stored in long-term pools (biomass and soils) in addition to short-term fluxes has important implications for management of forests in the Pacific North-west for carbon sequestration. [source] On estimating contributions of basin ejecta to regolith deposits at lunar sitesMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 1 2003Larry A. Haskin This model is based on impact crater scaling equations (Housen, Schmitt, and Holsapple 1983; Holsapple 1993) and the concept of ballistic sedimentation (Oberbeck 1975), and takes into account the size distribution of the individual fragments ejected from the primary crater. Using the model, we can estimate, for an area centered at the chosen location of interest, the average distribution of thicknesses of basin ejecta deposits within the area and the fraction of primary ejecta contained within the deposits. Model estimates of ejecta deposit thicknesses are calibrated using those of the Orientale Basin (Moore, Hodges, and Scott 1974) and of the Ries Basin (Hörz, Ostertag, and Rainey 1983). Observed densities of secondary craters surrounding the Imbrium and Orientale Basins are much lower than the modeled densities. Similarly, crater counts for part of the northern half of the Copernicus secondary cratering field are much lower than the model predicts, and variation in crater densities with distance from Copernicus is less than expected. These results suggest that mutual obliteration erases essentially all secondary craters associated with the debris surge that arises from the impacting primary fragments during ballistic sedimentation; if so, a process other than ballistic sedimentation is needed to produce observable secondary craters. Regardless, our ejecta deposit model can be useful for suggesting provenances of sampled lunar materials, providing information complementary to photogeological and remote sensing interpretations, and as a tool for planning rover traverses (e.g., Haskin et al. 1995, 2002). [source] Revenue Diversification: Fiscal Illusion or Flexible Financial ManagementPUBLIC BUDGETING AND FINANCE, Issue 4 2002Rebecca Hendrick This study examines the trends in revenue diversification in approximately 240 suburban municipalities in the Chicago metropolitan region between 1988 and 1997. It then tests a model of revenue diversification's impact on tax effort using data from 1993 to 1997, and separated by home rule and non,home rule municipalities. Trends show that suburbs with higher increases in diversification tend to be home rule, younger, less residential, experiencing more growth, less reliant on property taxes, and more reliant on sales taxes. Model estimates show that communities with more revenue diversification have lower tax effort when controlling for other determinants of tax effort, and this effect is stronger in non,home rule municipalities. [source] Simulating the Behavioural Effects of Welfare Reforms Among Sole Parents in AustraliaTHE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 242 2002Alan Duncan This paper derives and estimates an econometric model of labour supply among sole parents in Australia, using modelling techniques which treat the labour supply decision as a utility maximising choice between a given number of discrete states. The model is then used to look at the likely effects of actual and hypothetical welfare policy reforms. Model estimates are based upon net incomes generated by the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS), developed at the Melbourne Institute in collaboration with the Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS). [source] THE MISSING LINK IN GENERAL DETERRENCE RESEARCH,CRIMINOLOGY, Issue 3 2005GARY KLECK Research on the deterrent effects of punishment falls into two categories: macro-level studies of the impact of aggregate punishment levels on crime rates, and individual-level studies of the impact of perceived punishment levels on self-reported criminal behavior. For policy purposes, however, the missing link,ignored in previous research,is that between aggregate punishment levels and individual perceptions of punishment. This paper addresses whether higher actual punishment levels increase the perceived certainty, severity, or swiftness of punishment. Telephone interviews with 1,500 residents of fifty-four large urban counties were used to measure perceptions of punishment levels, which were then linked to actual punishment levels as measured in official statistics. Hierarchical linear model estimates of multivariate models generally found no detectable impact of actual punishment levels on perceptions of punishment. The findings raise serious questions about deterrence-based rationales for more punitive crime control policies. [source] A thermodynamics-based estimation model for adsorption of organic compounds by carbonaceous materials in environmental sorbentsENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 6 2003Paul C. M. van Noort Abstract A model was developed to estimate Langmuir affinities for adsorption of low-polarity organic compounds from either water or air by carbonaceous sorbents. Sorption enthalpies and entropies provided the basic information for the description of sorption affinities in terms of the entropy of melting and either solubility in water or vapor pressure. For m -xylene, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and chlorobenzenes on 10 different sorbents, 80% of the measured sorption affinities fall within a factor of four of the model estimates. Equations for the limiting distribution coefficients in terms of either octanol,air (KOA) or octanol,water partition (Kow) coefficients were derived from regressions of calculated affinities combined with an estimated relation between experimental Langmuir sorption capacities and Kow. Estimated soot,water distribution coefficients were within a factor of three of measured data for polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) and lower molecular weight PAHs on automotive soot samples and captured the dependence of PCB distribution coefficients on the extent of ortho substitution. For higher molecular weight PAHs, sorption was underestimated. For soot in sediment,water distribution coefficients of PAHs and PCBs, estimated values captured both the trend of measured data with Kow and the dependence on sorbate planarity. Tentative application to aerosol,air distribution explained the observed independence of distribution coefficient,KOA relations for PCBs on the extent of ortho substitution and suggested nonequilibrium conditions for PAHs in comparison with recent measurements. [source] Active microwave remote sensing for soil moisture measurement: a field evaluation using ERS-2HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 11 2004Jeffrey P. Walker Abstract Active microwave remote sensing observations of backscattering, such as C-band vertically polarized synthetic aperture radar (SAR) observations from the second European remote sensing (ERS-2) satellite, have the potential to measure moisture content in a near-surface layer of soil. However, SAR backscattering observations are highly dependent on topography, soil texture, surface roughness and soil moisture, meaning that soil moisture inversion from single frequency and polarization SAR observations is difficult. In this paper, the potential for measuring near-surface soil moisture with the ERS-2 satellite is explored by comparing model estimates of backscattering with ERS-2 SAR observations. This comparison was made for two ERS-2 overpasses coincident with near-surface soil moisture measurements in a 6 ha catchment using 15-cm time domain reflectometry probes on a 20 m grid. In addition, 1-cm soil moisture data were obtained from a calibrated soil moisture model. Using state-of-the-art theoretical, semi-empirical and empirical backscattering models, it was found that using measured soil moisture and roughness data there were root mean square (RMS) errors from 3·5 to 8·5 dB and r2 values from 0·00 to 0·25, depending on the backscattering model and degree of filtering. Using model soil moisture in place of measured soil moisture reduced RMS errors slightly (0·5 to 2 dB) but did not improve r2 values. Likewise, using the first day of ERS-2 backscattering and soil moisture data to solve for RMS surface roughness reduced RMS errors in backscattering for the second day to between 0·9 and 2·8 dB, but did not improve r2 values. Moreover, RMS differences were as large as 3·7 dB and r2 values as low as 0·53 between the various backscattering models, even when using the same data as input. These results suggest that more research is required to improve the agreement between backscattering models, and that ERS-2 SAR data may be useful for estimating fields-scale average soil moisture but not variations at the hillslope scale. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of root canal treatment using conventional approaches versus replacement with an implantINTERNATIONAL ENDODONTIC JOURNAL, Issue 10 2009M. W. Pennington Abstract Aim, To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of root canal treatment for a maxillary incisor tooth with a pulp infection, in comparison with extraction and replacement with a bridge, denture or implant supported restoration. Methodology, A Markov model was built to simulate the lifetime path of restorations placed on the maxillary incisor following the initial treatment decision. It was assumed that the goal of treatment was the preservation of a fixed platform support for a crown without involving the adjacent teeth. Consequently, the model estimates the lifetime costs and the total longevity of tooth and implant supported crowns at the maxillary incisor site. The model considers the initial treatment decisions, and the various subsequent treatment decisions that might be taken if initial restorations fail. Results, Root canal treatment extended the life of the tooth at an additional cost of £5,8 per year of tooth life. Provision of orthograde re-treatment, if the root canal treatment fails returns further extension of the expected life of the tooth at a cost of £12,15 per year. Surgical re-treatment is not cost-effective; it is cheaper, per year, to extend the life of the crown by replacement with a single implant restoration if orthograde endodontic treatment fails. Conclusion, Modelling the available clinical and cost data indicates that, root canal treatment is highly cost-effective as a first line intervention. Orthograde re-treatment is also cost-effective, if a root treatment subsequently fails, but surgical re-treatment is not. Implants may have a role as a third line intervention if re-treatment fails. [source] Multi-annual spatial and numeric dynamics of the white-headed duck Oxyura leucocephala in southern Europe: seasonality, density dependence and climatic variabilityJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2004PABLO ALMARAZ Summary 1A statistical model is developed for the globally threatened white-headed duck during its regional expansion throughout Spain from 1980 to 2000; the model estimates the relative intrinsic, climatic and stochastic effects on population fluctuations and spatial expansion on several time-scales. Facing the current lack of knowledge on the nature and consequences of regulation for waterfowl populations, this type of study seems timely. 2A measure of population density accounting for the spatial patchiness of the population was constructed for breeding and wintering counts. No relationship was found between spatial and numeric dynamics, which suggests different mechanisms for both dynamical patterns. 3Although a lagged non-linear climatic effect during the period of chick rearing enhanced numeric brood recruitment through a cohort effect, in the short term brood production appeared to decrease with increasing population density, despite a long-term exponential numeric growth. 4Both wintering population density and rainfall during post-nuptial moult exerted a positive effect on subsequent spatial expansion during breeding, which suggest a major role for social interactions during wintering and wetlands availability on spatial dynamics. 5Altogether, the results suggest that seasonality, density-dependence and climatic forcing are all major processes in the spatio-temporal dynamics of the white-headed duck. Ignoring the relative biotic and abiotic effects and their temporal scale of interaction on population dynamics might thus yield misleading conclusions on the factors affecting the short- and long-term abundance of waterfowl populations. [source] Comment on a recently proposed resampling methodJOURNAL OF CHEMOMETRICS, Issue 3 2001Nicolaas (Klaas) M. Faber Abstract A recently introduced resampling method for determining the contribution of measurement errors to the standard error in bilinear and trilinear model estimates is critically examined. Using Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that this method does not work as intended. A noise addition method is proposed as a generally applicable alternative. The principles involved in applied work are illustrated on real UV-vis data taken from the literature. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Temperature and prey quality effects on growth of juvenile walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma (Pallas): a spatially explicit bioenergetics approachJOURNAL OF FISH BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2007M. M. Mazur A bioenergetics model for juvenile age-0 year walleye pollock Theragra chalcogramma was applied to a spatially distinct grid of samples in the western Gulf of Alaska to investigate the influence of temperature and prey quality on size-specific growth. Daily growth estimates for 50, 70 and 90 mm standard length (LS) walleye pollock during September 2000 were generated using the bioenergetics model with a fixed ration size. Similarities in independent estimates of prey consumption generated from the bioenergetics model and a gastric evacuation model corroborated the performance of the bioenergetics model, concordance correlation (rc) = 0·945, lower 95% CL (transformed) (L1) = 0·834, upper 95% CL (transformed) (L2) = 0·982, P < 0·001. A mean squared error analysis (MSE) was also used to partition the sources of error between both model estimates of consumption into a mean component (MC), slope component (SC), and random component (RC). Differences between estimates of daily consumption were largely due to differences in the means of estimates (MC= 0·45) and random sources (RC= 0·49) of error, and not differences in slopes (SC= 0·06). Similarly, daily growth estimates of 0·031,0·167 g day,1 generated from the bioenergetics model was within the range of growth estimates of 0·026,0·190 g day,1 obtained from otolith analysis of juvenile walleye pollock. Temperature and prey quality alone accounted for 66% of the observed variation between bioenergetics and otolith growth estimates across all sizes of juvenile walleye pollock. These results suggest that the bioenergetics model for juvenile walleye pollock is a useful tool for evaluating the influence of spatially variable habitat conditions on the growth potential of juvenile walleye pollock. [source] Estimation of global structural and transport properties of peptides through the modeling of their CZE mobility dataJOURNAL OF SEPARATION SCIENCE, JSS, Issue 16 2010Maria V. Piaggio Abstract Peptide electrophoretic mobility data are interpreted through a physicochemical CZE model, providing estimates of the equivalent hydrodynamic radius, hydration, effective and total charge numbers, actual ionizing pK, pH-near molecule and electrical permittivity of peptide domain, among other basic properties. In this study, they are used to estimate some peptide global structural properties proposed, providing thus a distinction among different peptides. Therefore, the solvent drag on the peptide is obtained through a characteristic friction power coefficient of the number of amino acid residues, defined from the global chain conformation in solution. As modeling of the effective electrophoretic mobility of peptides is carried out in terms of particle hydrodynamic size and shape coupled to hydration and effective charge, a packing dimension related to chain conformation within the peptide domain may be defined. In addition, the effective and total charge number fractions of peptides provide some clues on the interpretation of chain conformations within the framework of scaling laws. Furthermore, the model estimates transport properties, such as sedimentation, friction and diffusion coefficients. As the relative numbers of ionizing, polar and non-polar amino acid residues vary in peptides, their global structural properties defined here change appreciably. Needs for further research are also discussed. [source] APPLICATION OF THE RHESSys MODEL TO A CALIFORNIA SEMIARID SHRUBLAND WATERSHED,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 3 2004Christina Tague ABSTRACT: Distributed hydrologic models which link seasonal streamflow and soil moisture patterns with spatial patterns of vegetation are important tools for understanding the sensitivity of Mediterranean type ecosystems to future climate and land use change. RHESSys (Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System) is a coupled spatially distributed hydroecological model that is designed to be able to represent these feedbacks between hydrologic and vegetation carbon and nutrient cycling processes. However, RHESSys has not previously been applied to semiarid shrubland watersheds. In this study, the hydrologic submodel of RHESSys is evaluated by comparing model predictions of monthly and annual streamflow to stream gage data and by comparing RHESSys behavior to that of another hydrologic model of similar complexity, MIKESHE, for a 34 km2 watershed near Santa Barbara, California. In model intercomparison, the differences in predictions of temporal patterns in streamflow, sensitivity of model predictions to calibration parameters and landscape representation, and differences in model estimates of soil moisture patterns are explored. Results from this study show that both models adequately predict seasonal patterns of streamflow response relative to observed data, but differ significantly in terms of estimates of soil moisture patterns and sensitivity of those patterns to the scale of landscape tessellation used to derive spatially distributed elements. This sensitivity has implications for implementing RHESSys as a tool to investigate interactions between hydrology and ecosystem processes. [source] Reduction of errors in ASL cerebral perfusion and arterial transit time maps using image de-noisingMAGNETIC RESONANCE IN MEDICINE, Issue 3 2010Jack A. Wells Abstract In this work, the performance of image de-noising techniques for reducing errors in arterial spin labeling cerebral blood flow and arterial transit time estimates is investigated. Simulations were used to show that the established arterial spin labeling cerebral blood flow quantification method exhibits the bias behavior common to nonlinear model estimates, and as a result, the reduction of random errors using image de-noising can improve accuracy. To assess the effect on precision, multiple arterial spin labeling data sets acquired from the rat brain were processed using a variety of common de-noising methods (Wiener filter, anisotropic diffusion filter, gaussian filter, wavelet decomposition, and independent component analyses). The various de-noising schemes were also applied to human arterial spin labeling data to assess the possible extent of structure degradation due to excessive spatial smoothing. The animal experiments and simulated data show that noise reduction methods can suppress both random and systematic errors, improving both the precision and accuracy of cerebral blood flow measurements and the precision of transit time maps. A number of these methods (and particularly independent component analysis) were shown to achieve this aim without compromising image contrast. Magn Reson Med, 2010. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Analyzing moviegoing demand: an individual-level cross-sectional approachMANAGERIAL AND DECISION ECONOMICS, Issue 5 2005Alan Collins Previous work analyzing the demand for movie theater visits have had to rely entirely on highly aggregate time series data. Inevitably, this masks the significance of individual-specific effects that place constraints on such trip making. Further, while there have been cross-sectional revenue model estimates at the film-level, there have not been, hitherto, any cross-sectional studies of moviegoing by individuals. This study thus presents the first detailed microeconometric analysis of the factors that increase or lower the probability that an individual will go to a movie theater. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Life in the last lane: star formation and chemical evolution in an extremely gas rich dwarfMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 2 2008Ayesha Begum ABSTRACT We present an analysis of H i, H, and oxygen abundance data for NGC 3741. This galaxy has a very extended gas disc (,8.8 times the Holmberg radius), and a dark-to-luminous (i.e. stellar) mass ratio of ,149, which makes it one of the ,darkest' dwarf irregular galaxies known. However, its ratio of baryon (i.e. gas + stellar) mass to dark mass is typical of that in galaxies. Our new high-resolution H i images of the galaxy show evidence for a large-scale (purely gaseous) spiral arm and central bar. From our H i data, a rotation curve can be derived out to ,37,44 disc scalelengths in the J and B bands, respectively. This is just slightly short of the radius at which one would expect a Navarro,Frenk,White type rotation curve to start falling. The galaxy has an integrated star formation rate (SFR) of ,0.0034 M, yr,1, while the average SFR within the optical disc is ,0.0049 M, yr,1 kpc,2. Despite the gaseous spiral feature and the ongoing star formation, we find that the global gas density in NGC 3741 is significantly lower than the Toomre instability criterion. This is consistent with the behaviour seen in other dwarf galaxies. We also find that the SFR is consistent with that expected from the observed correlations between H i mass and SFR and the global Kennicutt,Schmidt law, respectively. We measure the oxygen abundance to be 12 + log(O/H) = 7.66 ± 0.10, which is consistent with that expected from the metallicity,luminosity relation, despite its extreme gas mass ratio. We also examine the issue of chemical evolution of NGC 3741 in the context of the closed-box model of chemical evolution. The effective oxygen yield of NGC 3741 is consistent with recent model estimates of closed-box yields, provided one assumes that the gas has been efficiently mixed all the way to the edge of the H i disc (i.e. greater than eight times the optical radius). This seems a priori unlikely. On the other hand, using a sample of galaxies with both interferometric H i maps and chemical abundance measurements, we find that the effective yield is anticorrelated with the total dynamical mass, as expected in leaky box models. [source] Have studies of urinary tract infection and preterm delivery used the most appropriate methods?PAEDIATRIC & PERINATAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Issue 3 2003Marie S. O'Neill Summary Published investigations of the association between urinary tract infection (UTI) and preterm delivery used logistic regression or chi-squared tests. Because both exposure and outcome are time dependent, these methods were not optimal and did not account for person,time under observation, potentially an important feature given the variability of women's entry to prenatal care as well as of gestational lengths. Previous researchers probably classified as exposed some women whose UTI occurred after their pregnancies exceeded 37 weeks. We applied the previous analytical methods to 1990,93 births from two Durham, NC, USA, hospitals (n = 4053) and demonstrate survival methods as an alternative. Two logistic regression models were fitted with differing exposure definitions: model 1 in which exposed = UTI diagnosed after 20 weeks' gestation; and model 2 in which exposed = UTI diagnosed between 20 weeks' and 37 weeks' gestation. Model 3 used proportional hazards regression with person,time after 20 weeks and before UTI diagnosis as unexposed, and person,time after diagnosis as exposed. Models were fit with and without five time-constant potential confounders. Model 1 yielded an adjusted odds ratio (OR) of 0.8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.5, 1.2], and model 2, which did not include UTI diagnoses after 37 weeks, an adjusted OR of 0.9 [95% CI 0.6, 1.4]. The Cox model hazard ratio (HR) for preterm delivery was 1.1 (adjusted) [95% CI 0.7, 1.7]. As these results indicated some bias, but not remarkable differences, we conducted a sensitivity analysis using 100 samples of 80% of the original data set, with replacement to determine how large the differences might be in other, similar data sets. The Cox method consistently produced higher effect estimates than either logistic model. The two samples with the greatest differences between the Cox and logistic model estimates yielded an OR of 1.47 [95% CI 0.95, 2.29] for model 1 vs. HR of 2.06 [95% CI 1.39, 3.06] for model 3, and an OR of 1.41 [95% CI 0.88, 2.25] for model 2 vs. HR of 1.79 [95% CI 1.17, 2.71] for model 3 respectively. Previous published results on UTI and preterm delivery require cautious interpretation. Data on UTI timing should be gathered to allow appropriate analyses; survival methods account for person,time under observation and ensure that studied exposures precede effects. [source] The Role of Slack in Local Government FinancesPUBLIC BUDGETING AND FINANCE, Issue 1 2006REBECCA HENDRICK The research presented here adopts an organizational approach to develop three regression models that examine why local governments accumulate slack in the form of unreserved fund balances, and what is the impact of slack resources on local governments' short-term fiscal conditions and decisions about spending and revenues. Using data on Chicago suburban municipalities and their governments, the first model estimates the effects of long-term and short-term conditions (fiscal and governing) on unreserved fund balances. The second and third models examine the impact of slack resources and other factors on year-end deficits or surpluses and changes in spending and own-source revenues. The results show that ending balances, expenditures (size), and long-term fiscal conditions have the greatest effect on fund balances, and that slack and current fiscal conditions have the greatest effect on ending balances and changes in revenues and spending. [source] Modeling kinetics of a large-scale fed-batch CHO cell culture by Markov chain Monte Carlo methodBIOTECHNOLOGY PROGRESS, Issue 1 2010Zizhuo Xing Abstract Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method was applied to model kinetics of a fed-batch Chinese hamster ovary cell culture process in 5,000-L bioreactors. The kinetic model consists of six differential equations, which describe dynamics of viable cell density and concentrations of glucose, glutamine, ammonia, lactate, and the antibody fusion protein B1 (B1). The kinetic model has 18 parameters, six of which were calculated from the cell culture data, whereas the other 12 were estimated from a training data set that comprised of seven cell culture runs using a MCMC method. The model was confirmed in two validation data sets that represented a perturbation of the cell culture condition. The agreement between the predicted and measured values of both validation data sets may indicate high reliability of the model estimates. The kinetic model uniquely incorporated the ammonia removal and the exponential function of B1 protein concentration. The model indicated that ammonia and lactate play critical roles in cell growth and that low concentrations of glucose (0.17 mM) and glutamine (0.09 mM) in the cell culture medium may help reduce ammonia and lactate production. The model demonstrated that 83% of the glucose consumed was used for cell maintenance during the late phase of the cell cultures, whereas the maintenance coefficient for glutamine was negligible. Finally, the kinetic model suggests that it is critical for B1 production to sustain a high number of viable cells. The MCMC methodology may be a useful tool for modeling kinetics of a fed-batch mammalian cell culture process. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2010 [source] The economic impact of overactive bladder syndrome in six Western countriesBJU INTERNATIONAL, Issue 2 2009Debra E. Irwin OBJECTIVE To calculate up-to-date estimates of the economic impact of overactive bladder syndrome (OAB) with and without urgency urinary incontinence (UUI) on the health sector of six countries (Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK), as OAB is a significant health concern for adults aged >18 years living in Western countries. MATERIALS AND METHODS The prevalence data derived from the EPIC study were combined with healthcare resource-use data to derive current direct and indirect 1-year or annual cost of illness estimates for OAB including UUI in Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK. This model estimates the direct healthcare costs attributed to OAB, as well as the impact of work absenteeism. RESULTS The estimated average annual direct cost of OAB per patient ranged between ,262 in Spain and ,619 in Sweden. The estimated total direct cost burden for OAB per country ranges between ,333 million in Sweden and ,1.2 billion in Germany and the total annual direct cost burden of OAB in these six countries is estimated at ,3.9 billion. In addition, nursing home costs were estimated at ,4.7 billion per year and it was estimated that work absenteeism related to OAB costs ,1.1 billion per year. CONCLUSIONS The cost of illness for OAB is a substantial economic and human burden. This study may under-estimate the true economic burden, as not all costs for sequelae associated with OAB have been included. Cost-effective treatments and management strategies that can reduce the burden of OAB and in particular UUI have the potential to significantly reduce this economic burden. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||