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Migration Distance (migration + distance)
Selected AbstractsPatterns of change in timing of spring migration in North European songbird populationsJOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2006Anders P. Tøttrup From 1976 to 1997 passerines were mist-netted and ringed on the island of Christiansø, in the Baltic Sea. Here we present analyses of phenological changes (i.e. time of arrival) for 25 species based on the entire populations of mist-netted songbirds during spring migration. We used two approaches (least square and quantile regression) to test for changes in arrival time of first individuals and three different parts of the songbird populations (i.e. first 5%, 50% and 95% of the total number of trapped individuals corrected for trapping effort). Our results generally confirm earlier spring arrival of migratory passerines with an overall earlier arrival of 0.26 days per year. Changes in the arrival time of first individuals are often the only data available. They are typically analysed on the assumption that they are representative of their respective population. We found a unidirectional, significant change towards earlier arrival for all four measures of arrival timing which seem to support this. However, the four measures of arrival are changing at different rates. First individuals changed arrival time more rapidly than the first 5%, 50% and 95% of the spring total. Such differences are likely to be important for our understanding of population-dynamic changes in relation to climate change. These differences may also have long-term evolutionary consequences. Migration distance seems to affect the degree of change in arrival time, but we found no difference between species wintering in different regions of Africa. [source] The allometric pattern of sexually size dimorphic feather ornaments and factors affecting allometryJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2009J. J. CUERVO Abstract The static allometry of secondary sexual characters is currently subject to debate. While some studies suggest an almost universal positive allometry for such traits, but isometry or negative allometry for nonornamental traits, other studies maintain that any kind of allometric pattern is possible. Therefore, we investigated the allometry of sexually size dimorphic feather ornaments in 67 species of birds. We also studied the allometry of female feathers homologous to male ornaments (female ornaments in the following) and ordinary nonsexual traits. Allometries were estimated as reduced major axis slopes of trait length on tarsus length. Ornamental feathers showed positive allometric slopes in both sexes, although that was not a peculiarity for ornamental feathers, because nonsexual tail feathers also showed positive allometry. Migration distance (in males) and relative size of the tail ornament (in females) tended to be negatively related to the allometric slope of tail feather ornaments, although these results were not conclusive. Finally, we found an association between mating system and allometry of tail feather ornaments, with species with more intense sexual selection showing a smaller degree of allometry of tail ornaments. This study is consistent with theoretical models that predict no specific kind of allometric pattern for sexual and nonsexual characters. [source] Effect of habitat fragmentation on spawning migration of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.)ECOLOGY OF FRESHWATER FISH, Issue 3 2006C. Gosset Abstract , Human-induced habitat alteration is one of the main causes of the decline of freshwater fish populations. The watershed of the River Bidasoa (Spain) is an example of heavily fragmented habitat. The local brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population is disturbed, with evidence of poor recruitment as well as low adult densities in the main stem. Forty male and female adult migratory trout were tagged with external or internal radio transmitters and released. Fixed stations with data loggers and mobile antennae were used with daily surveys to track fish movements during the migration and spawning period (3 months). Migration distances did not exceed 10 km, and half of the fish never entered a tributary in the study area. Fragmentation because of weirs on the main stem apparently prevented fish from reaching their spawning destination. Fish that entered the tributaries were first confronted with an accessibility problem because of low discharge. However, each fish chose one tributary, without making attempts to run up in other tributaries. Once in the tributary, fish were restrained in their upstream movements by dams. The study area appeared to be isolated from the vast upper part of the watershed. Within the study area, upper parts of tributaries also seemed strongly disconnected from the main stem. This study illustrates the negative impact of river fragmentation on S. trutta migration pattern. Population sustainability can be directly affected through the low availability of spawning grounds for migratory fish. Long-term effects of fragmentation may cause reproductive isolation within watersheds, which in the case of trout also means isolated phenotypic population units. [source] Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate changeJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 7 2002Jay R. Malcolm Aim Greenhouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 -doubled climatic forcing. Location Global. Methods Migration distances were calculated between grid cells of future biome type x and nearest same-biome-type cells in the current climate. In `base-case' calculations, we assumed that 2 × CO2 climate forcing would occur in 100 years, we used ten biome types and we measured migration distances as straight-line distances ignoring water barriers and human development. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated different time periods of 2 × CO2 climate forcing, more narrowly defined biomes and barriers because of water bodies and human development. Results In the base-case calculations, average migration rates varied significantly according to the GVM used (BIOME3 vs. MAPSS), the age of the GCM (older- vs. newer-generation GCMs), and whether or not GCMs included sulphate cooling or CO2 fertilization effects. However, high migration rates (, 1000 m year,1) were relatively common in all models, consisting on average of 17% grid cells for BIOME3 and 21% for MAPSS. Migration rates were much higher in boreal and temperate biomes than in tropical biomes. Doubling of the time period of 2 × CO2 forcing reduced these areas of high migration rates to c. 12% of grid cells for both BIOME3 and MAPSS. However, to obtain migration rates in the Boreal biome that were similar in magnitude to those observed for spruce when it followed the retreating North American Glacier, a radical increase in the period of warming was required, from 100 to >1000 years. A reduction in biome area by an order of magnitude increased migration rates by one to three orders of magnitude, depending on the GVM. Large water bodies and human development had regionally important effects in increasing migration rates. Main conclusions In conclusion, evidence from coupled GCMs and GVMs suggests that global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during post-glacial times and hence has the potential to reduce biodiversity by selecting for highly mobile and opportunistic species. Several poorly understood factors that are expected to influence the magnitude of any such reduction are discussed, including intrinsic migrational capabilities, barriers to migration, the role of outlier populations in increasing migration rates, the role of climate in setting range limits and variation in species range sizes. [source] Effect of elevated homocysteine on cardiac neural crest migration in vitroDEVELOPMENTAL DYNAMICS, Issue 2 2002Philip R. Brauer Abstract A positive correlation between elevated maternal homocysteine (Hcys) and an increased risk of neural tube, craniofacial, and cardiac defects is well known. Studies suggest Hcys perturbs neural crest (NC) development and may involve N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors (Rosenquist et al., 1999). However, there is no direct evidence that Hcys alters NC cell behavior. Here, we evaluated the effect of Hcys on cardiac NC cell migratory behavior in vitro. Neural tube segments from chick embryos treated in ovo with or without Hcys were placed in culture and the migratory behavior of emigrating NC cells was monitored. Hcys significantly increased in vitro NC cell motility at all embryonic stages examined. NC cell surface area and perimeter were also increased. However, the relative distance NC cells migrated from their original starting point only increased in NC cells treated in ovo at stage 6 or at the time neural tube segments were cultured. Cysteine had no effect. NMDA mimicked Hcys' effect on NC motility and migration distance but had no effect on cell area or perimeter. The noncompetitive inhibitor of NMDA receptors, MK801+, significantly inhibited NC cell motility, reduced migration distance, and also blocked the effects of NMDA and Hcys on NC motility and migratory distance in vitro. A monoclonal antibody directed against the NMDA receptor immunostained NC cells in vitro and, in western blots, bound a single protein with the appropriate molecular weight for the NMDA receptor in NC cell lysates. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that a Hcys-sensitive NMDA-like receptor is expressed by early emigrating NC cells or their precursors, which is important in mediating their migratory behavior. Perturbation of this receptor may be related to some of the teratogenic effects observed with elevated Hcys. © 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] ADAPTIVE MIGRATORY DIVERGENCE AMONG SYMPATIRIC BROK CHARR POPULATIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2005Dylan J. Fraser Abstract Ecological processes clearly contribute to population divergence, yet how they interact over complex life cycles remains poorly understood. Notably, the evolutionary consequences of migration between breeding and nonbreeding areas have received limited attention. We provide evidence for a negative association between interpopulation differences in migration (between breeding and feeding areas, as well as within each) and the amount of gene flow (m) among three brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations inhabitingMistassini Lake, Quebec, Canada. Individuals (n=1166) captured throughout lake feeding areas over two consecutive sampling years were genotyped (10 microsatellites) and assigned to one of the three populations. Interpopulation differences in migration were compared based on spatial distribution overlap, habitat selection, migration distance within feeding areas, and morphology. We observed a temporally stable, heterogeneous spatial distribution within feeding areas among populations, with the extent of spatial segregation related to differential habitat selection (represented by littoral zone substrate). Spatial segregation was lowest and gene flow highest (m=0.015) between two populations breeding in separate lake inflows. Segregation was highest and gene flow was lowest (mean m=0.007) between inflow populations and a third population breeding in the outflow. Compared to outflow migrants, inflow migrants showed longer migration distances within feeding areas(64,70 km vs. 22 km). After entering natal rivers to breed, inflow migrants also migrated longer distances (35,75 km) and at greater elevations (50,150 m) to breeding areas than outflow migrants (0,15 km; ,10,0 m). Accordingly, inflow migrants were more streamlined with longer caudal regions, traits known to improve swimming efficiency. There was no association between the geographic distance separating population pairs and the amount of gene flow they exchanged. Collectively, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that reduced gene flow between these brook charr populations results from divergent natural selection leading to interpopulation differences in migration. They also illustrate how phenotypic and genetic differentiation may arise over complex migratory life cycles. [source] Prespawning migratory behaviour and spawning success of sea-ranched Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., in the River Gudenaa, DenmarkFISHERIES MANAGEMENT & ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2000K. Aarestrup The migratory behaviour of sea-ranched Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar L., was analysed by radio-telemetry in the River Gudenaa, Denmark. The main objectives were to: (1) estimate mortality of returning adults through the fjord; (2) observe rate of progression and migratory pattern in the fjord and river; and (3) record whether spawning occurs in the river. Forty-two returning salmon (19 males and 23 females of total body length from 60,97 cm) reared and released as smolts, were caught and equipped with external radio transmitters in the outer estuary of the River Gudenaa in 1994 and 1995. Of the tagged salmon, 18 (43%) were caught in the estuary, four (10%) were not recorded after release and 20 (47%) entered the river. The mean rate of progression through the fjord was 7.6 km d,1 (range 1.4,18.2) in 1994 and 5.4 km d,1 (range 1.6,17.1) in 1995. Eleven salmon were alive at the onset of the spawning period. Eight were retrieved dead from the river during or after the spawning period; four with empty gonads assumed to be successful spawners, and four with intact gonads. In 1994, unsuccessful spawners (found dead with intact gonads) entered the river earlier and had a longer total migration distance in the river compared to successful spawners. This suggests that spawning success of sea-ranched salmon is associated with time of river entry and river migration length. [source] Duration of primary moult affects primary quality in Grey Plovers Pluvialis squatarolaJOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2001Lorenzo Serra Feather wear is the natural degradation and breakage of feather structure during the interval between moults. Different rates of feather wear have been observed for primaries of free-living populations of several species of passerines and waders, and this variability has been linked to different concentrations of melanins. In this study primary moult duration explained 59% of the variation in annual rates of primary abrasion (percentage wing length loss) of seven Grey Plover wintering populations, while migration distance explained 14%. The analysis suggests that primary moult duration plays a key role in determining primary durability and hence primary quality. Long distance migrants might evolve more durable primaries, despite the higher predation risks and energetic costs of a prolonged moult. Partial or complete pre-breeding primary moults of first-year waders and complete biannual moults of some passerines might have evolved under selective forces favouring migration with unabraded primaries. [source] Relative longevity and field metabolic rate in birdsJOURNAL OF EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2008A. P. MØLLER Abstract Metabolism is a defining feature of all living organisms, with the metabolic process resulting in the production of free radicals that can cause permanent damage to DNA and other molecules. Surprisingly, birds, bats and other organisms with high metabolic rates have some of the slowest rates of senescence begging the question whether species with high metabolic rates also have evolved mechanisms to cope with damage induced by metabolism. To test whether species with the highest metabolic rates also lived the longest I determined the relationship between relative longevity (maximum lifespan), after adjusting for annual adult survival rate, body mass and sampling effort, and mass-specific field metabolic rate (FMR) in 35 species of birds. There was a strongly positive relationship between relative longevity and FMR, consistent with the hypothesis. This conclusion was robust to statistical control for effects of potentially confounding variables such as age at first reproduction, latitude and migration distance, and similarity in phenotype among species because of common phylogenetic descent. Therefore, species of birds with high metabolic rates senesce more slowly than species with low metabolic rates. [source] Colonization of recent coniferous versus deciduous forest stands by vascular plants at the local scaleAPPLIED VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 3 2008Monika Wulf Abstract. Questions: 1. Are there differences among species in their preference for coniferous vs. deciduous forest? 2. Are tree and shrub species better colonizers of recent forest stands than herbaceous species? 3. Do colonization patterns of plant species groups depend on tree species composition? Location: Three deciduous and one coniferous recent forest areas in Brandenburg, NE Germany. Methods: In 34 and 21 transects in coniferous and deciduous stands, respectively, we studied the occurrence and percentage cover of vascular plants in a total of 150 plots in ancient stands, 315 in recent stands and 55 at the ecotone. Habitat preference, diaspore weight, generative dispersal potential and clonal extension were used to explain mechanisms of local migration. Regression analysis was conducted to test whether migration distance was related to species' life-history traits. Results: 25 species were significantly associated with ancient stands and ten species were significantly more frequent in recent stands. Tree and shrub species were good colonizers of recent coniferous and deciduous stands. In the coniferous stands, all herbaceous species showed a strong dispersal limitation during colonization, whereas in the deciduous stands generalist species may have survived in the grasslands which were present prior to afforestation. Conclusions: The fast colonization of recent stands by trees and shrubs can be explained by their effective dispersal via wind and animals. This, and the comparably efficient migration of herbaceous forest specialists into recent coniferous stands, implies that the conversion of coniferous into deciduous stands adjacent to ancient deciduous forests is promising even without planting of trees. [source] Characteristics of Oil Sources from the Chepaizi Swell, Junggar Basin, ChinaACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 5 2010LIU Luofu Abstract: So far there has been no common opinion on oil source of the Chepaizi swell in the Junggar Basin. Therefore, it is difficult to determine the pathway system and trend of hydrocarbon migration, and this resulted in difficulties in study of oil-gas accumulation patterns. In this paper, study of nitrogen compounds distribution in oils from Chepaizi was carried out in order to classify source rocks of oils stored in different reservoirs in the study area. Then, migration characteristics of oils from the same source were investigated by using nitrogen compounds parameters. The results of nitrogen compounds in a group of oil/oil sand samples from the same source indicate that the oils trapped in the Chepaizi swell experienced an obvious vertical migration. With increasing migration distance, amounts and indices of carbazoles have a regular changing pattern (in a fine linear relationship). By using nitrogen compounds techniques, the analyzed oil/oil sand samples of Chepaizi can be classified into two groups. One is the samples stored in reservoir beds of the Cretaceous and Tertiary, and these oils came from mainly Jurassic source rock with a small amount of Cretaceous rock; the other is those stored in the Jurassic, Permian and Carboniferous beds, and they originated from the Permian source. In addition, a sample of oil from an upper Jurassic reservoir (Well Ka 6), which was generated from Jurassic coal source rock, has a totally different nitrogen compound distribution from those of the above-mentioned two groups of samples, which were generated from mudstone sources. Because of influence from fractionation of oil migration, amounts and ratios of nitrogen compounds with different structures and polarities change regularly with increasing migrating distance, and as a result the samples with the same source follow a good linear relationship in content and ratio, while the oil samples of different sources have obviously different nitrogen compound distribution owing to different organic matter types of their source rocks. These conclusions of oil source study are identical with those obtained by other geochemical bio-markers. Therefore, nitrogen compounds are of great significance in oil type classification and oil/source correlation. [source] Applicability of Carbazole Migration Indices in Continental Rift Basins: A Case Study of Western Lujiapu Depression in Kailu Basin, NE ChinaACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 3 2010Shuqing ZHOU Abstract: Kailu Basin in which the Western Lujiapu Depression is located is a typical continental rift basin. Biomarker parameters of the oils indicate that depositional facies and environments vary between the Bao 1 and Bao 14 fault blocks with a higher saline environment in the Bao 1 fault block, but such difference has no significant impact on carbazole abundance and distribution. Maturity and migration distance are the main controls on carbazole abundance and distribution in the Western Lujiapu Depression. The commonly used migration indices, such as ratios of nitrogen shield isomers to nitrogen exposed isomers (1-/4-methylcarbazole ratio, 1,8-/2,4-dimethylcarbazole (DMC) ratio and half-shield/exposed-DMC ratio), absolute concentrations of alkylated carbazoles and BC ratio (= benzo [a]carbazole/ (benzo[a]carbazole + benzo[c]carbazole)) increase at the low mature range and decrease at a higher mature range with increasing maturity. At relatively low maturity stage (Rc<0.77%), maturation has reversal effects with migration on the ratios of nitrogen shield isomers to nitrogen exposed isomers, which may cover migration influence and makes these parameters fail to indicate migration effects. Valid migration indicators at this maturity stage are concentrations of alkylated carbazoles and BC ratios, which can provide ideal tools for migration direction assessment even within short migration distance. Maturity effects should be taken into account when carbazole compounds are applied to indicate migration direction, and at different maturity stages, these commonly used parameters have different validity in tracing migration direction. Coupled with our previous study in the Eastern Lujiapu Depression, a conceptual model of the variation of nitrogen migration indices can be established for terrestrial rifted basins, that is, strong fractionation lateral migration model through sandy beds, weak fractionation vertical migration model along faults, and maturity impacts on migration assessment. [source] Tectonic Evolution of the Tianhuan Depression and the Western Margin of the Late Triassic OrdosACTA GEOLOGICA SINICA (ENGLISH EDITION), Issue 6 2009LI Xiangbo Abstract: The Ordos Basin is one of the most important oil and gas basins in China. Based on surface outcrop, key exploratory wells and seismic reflection data and by using the technology of "prototype basin recovery", seismic profile "layer flattening" and "restoration of balanced section", and other methods, the sedimentary boundary, structure and the evolution history of the Tianhuan depression on the western margin of the Ordos Basin are reestablished. The following results have been obtained. (1) The west boundary of the Late Triassic Ordos Basin was far beyond the scope of the current basin. The basin is connected with the Late Triassic Hexi Corridor Basin, and its western margin did not have tectonic characteristics of a foreland basin. (2) The Tianhuan depression was first formed in the Late Jurassic. At the late stage it was impacted by the late Yanshanian and Himalayan tectonic movement and the depression axis gradually moved eastwards to the present location with a cumulative migration distance of ,30 km. (3) Eastward migration of the depression axis caused adjustment and even destruction of the originally formed oil and gas reservoirs, so that oil and gas remigrated and aggregated, resulting in secondary structural reservoirs formed at high positions on the western flank of the depression. [source] ADAMTS13 cleavage efficiency is altered by mutagenic and, to a lesser extent, polymorphic sequence changes in the A1 and A2 domains of von Willebrand factorBRITISH JOURNAL OF HAEMATOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Cynthia M. Pruss Summary The multimeric plasma protein von Willebrand factor (VWF) is regulated in size by its protease, ADAMTS13 (a disintegrin and metalloproteinase with thrombospondin type 1 motif, member 13). Y1605-M1606 cleavage site mutations and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the VWF A1 and A2 domains were examined for alteration in ADAMTS13-mediated cleavage of VWF. Recombinant human full-length VWF (rVWF) was digested with recombinant human ADAMTS13 (rADAMTS13) using a dialysis membrane method with 1·5 mol/l urea, and analyzed via multimer migration distance. The glutathione- S -transferase (GST) and histidine-tagged construct, E1554-R1668 of VWF (VWF115) was assayed via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay: VWF115 was bound to anti-GST coated plates, digested with rADAMTS13, and intact VWF115 detected via horseradish peroxidase-labelled anti-histidine tag antibody. All alterations examined in the Y1605-M1606 cleavage site greatly reduced the cleavability of VWF by ADAMTS13 in the rVWF assay. Greatest cleavage resistance in both assays was observed in Y1605A/M1606A. In contrast, Y1605H and M1606L show a loss of cleavability only in the rVWF assay, suggesting that an aromatic ring at 1605 is critical for ADAMTS13 recognition. Additionally, under our rVWF assay conditions, the G1643S polymorphism showed increased cleavage, suggesting a Type 2A VWD phenotype, while D1472H, Q1571H and P1601T showed slightly decreased ADAMTS13 cleavage. Our two complementary assay conditions show that A-domain changes in VWF alter ADAMTS13-mediated proteolysis. [source] ADAPTIVE MIGRATORY DIVERGENCE AMONG SYMPATIRIC BROK CHARR POPULATIONSEVOLUTION, Issue 3 2005Dylan J. Fraser Abstract Ecological processes clearly contribute to population divergence, yet how they interact over complex life cycles remains poorly understood. Notably, the evolutionary consequences of migration between breeding and nonbreeding areas have received limited attention. We provide evidence for a negative association between interpopulation differences in migration (between breeding and feeding areas, as well as within each) and the amount of gene flow (m) among three brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations inhabitingMistassini Lake, Quebec, Canada. Individuals (n=1166) captured throughout lake feeding areas over two consecutive sampling years were genotyped (10 microsatellites) and assigned to one of the three populations. Interpopulation differences in migration were compared based on spatial distribution overlap, habitat selection, migration distance within feeding areas, and morphology. We observed a temporally stable, heterogeneous spatial distribution within feeding areas among populations, with the extent of spatial segregation related to differential habitat selection (represented by littoral zone substrate). Spatial segregation was lowest and gene flow highest (m=0.015) between two populations breeding in separate lake inflows. Segregation was highest and gene flow was lowest (mean m=0.007) between inflow populations and a third population breeding in the outflow. Compared to outflow migrants, inflow migrants showed longer migration distances within feeding areas(64,70 km vs. 22 km). After entering natal rivers to breed, inflow migrants also migrated longer distances (35,75 km) and at greater elevations (50,150 m) to breeding areas than outflow migrants (0,15 km; ,10,0 m). Accordingly, inflow migrants were more streamlined with longer caudal regions, traits known to improve swimming efficiency. There was no association between the geographic distance separating population pairs and the amount of gene flow they exchanged. Collectively, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that reduced gene flow between these brook charr populations results from divergent natural selection leading to interpopulation differences in migration. They also illustrate how phenotypic and genetic differentiation may arise over complex migratory life cycles. [source] Sex roles, parental effort and offspring desertion in the monogamous Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquataIBIS, Issue 3 2001DAVE CURRIE The reasons for female desertion of offspring and the evolution of predominantly male care among monogamous bird species are not clearly understood. We studied parental effort during the incubation and chick rearing periods in the Eurasian Curlew Numenius arquata in western Finland, and compared timing of brood desertion with other populations in Europe. Males and females contributed equally to incubation and showed no differences in the intensity of mobbing behaviour towards a potential nest predator (stuffed crow) shortly after hatching. However, females deserted their offspring approximately halfway through the brooding period (c. 16 d after hatching), while males remained with chicks until independence (c. 35 d). Females with late-laid clutches deserted their offspring sooner after hatching than those with clutches produced earlier in the season. Curlew females deserted younger chicks in northeast Europe, where laying dates were later, breeding seasons shorter and migration distances were longer, than in western and central Europe. We suggest that the most likely reasons for offspring desertion by females may be associated with increased female survivorship and maintenance of pairbond between years. [source] Estimated migration rates under scenarios of global climate changeJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 7 2002Jay R. Malcolm Aim Greenhouse-induced warming and resulting shifts in climatic zones may exceed the migration capabilities of some species. We used fourteen combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Global Vegetation Models (GVMs) to investigate possible migration rates required under CO2 -doubled climatic forcing. Location Global. Methods Migration distances were calculated between grid cells of future biome type x and nearest same-biome-type cells in the current climate. In `base-case' calculations, we assumed that 2 × CO2 climate forcing would occur in 100 years, we used ten biome types and we measured migration distances as straight-line distances ignoring water barriers and human development. In sensitivity analyses, we investigated different time periods of 2 × CO2 climate forcing, more narrowly defined biomes and barriers because of water bodies and human development. Results In the base-case calculations, average migration rates varied significantly according to the GVM used (BIOME3 vs. MAPSS), the age of the GCM (older- vs. newer-generation GCMs), and whether or not GCMs included sulphate cooling or CO2 fertilization effects. However, high migration rates (, 1000 m year,1) were relatively common in all models, consisting on average of 17% grid cells for BIOME3 and 21% for MAPSS. Migration rates were much higher in boreal and temperate biomes than in tropical biomes. Doubling of the time period of 2 × CO2 forcing reduced these areas of high migration rates to c. 12% of grid cells for both BIOME3 and MAPSS. However, to obtain migration rates in the Boreal biome that were similar in magnitude to those observed for spruce when it followed the retreating North American Glacier, a radical increase in the period of warming was required, from 100 to >1000 years. A reduction in biome area by an order of magnitude increased migration rates by one to three orders of magnitude, depending on the GVM. Large water bodies and human development had regionally important effects in increasing migration rates. Main conclusions In conclusion, evidence from coupled GCMs and GVMs suggests that global warming may require migration rates much faster than those observed during post-glacial times and hence has the potential to reduce biodiversity by selecting for highly mobile and opportunistic species. Several poorly understood factors that are expected to influence the magnitude of any such reduction are discussed, including intrinsic migrational capabilities, barriers to migration, the role of outlier populations in increasing migration rates, the role of climate in setting range limits and variation in species range sizes. [source] | |||||||||||||