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Microsimulation Model (microsimulation + model)
Selected AbstractsWould a Flat-Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany?FISCAL STUDIES, Issue 2 2009A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk H24; J23; L26; D81 Abstract When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex-ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex-ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat-rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self-employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self-employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation. [source] Using SimBritain to Model the Geographical Impact of National Government PoliciesGEOGRAPHICAL ANALYSIS, Issue 1 2007Dimitris Ballas In this article, we use a dynamic spatial microsimulation model of Britain for the analysis of the geographical impact of policies that have been implemented in Britain in the last 10 years. In particular, we show how spatial microsimulation can be used to estimate the geographical and socio-economic impact of the following policy developments: introduction of the minimum wage, winter fuel payments, working families tax credits, and new child and working credits. This analysis is carried out with the use of the SimBritain model, which is a product of a 3-year research project aimed at dynamically simulating urban and regional populations in Britain. SimBritain projections are based on a method that uses small area data from past Censuses of the British population in order to estimate small-area data for 2001, 2011, and 2021. [source] At what costs will screening with CT colonography be competitive?INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CANCER, Issue 5 2009A cost-effectiveness approach Abstract The costs of computed tomographic colonography (CTC) are not yet established for screening use. In our study, we estimated the threshold costs for which CTC screening would be a cost-effective alternative to colonoscopy for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening in the general population. We used the MISCAN-colon microsimulation model to estimate the costs and life-years gained of screening persons aged 50,80 years for 4 screening strategies: (i) optical colonoscopy; and CTC with referral to optical colonoscopy of (ii) any suspected polyp; (iii) a suspected polyp ,6 mm and (iv) a suspected polyp ,10 mm. For each of the 4 strategies, screen intervals of 5, 10, 15 and 20 years were considered. Subsequently, for each CTC strategy and interval, the threshold costs of CTC were calculated. We performed a sensitivity analysis to assess the effect of uncertain model parameters on the threshold costs. With equal costs ($662), optical colonoscopy dominated CTC screening. For CTC to gain similar life-years as colonoscopy screening every 10 years, it should be offered every 5 years with referral of polyps ,6 mm. For this strategy to be as cost-effective as colonoscopy screening, the costs must not exceed $285 or 43% of colonoscopy costs (range in sensitivity analysis: 39,47%). With 25% higher adherence than colonoscopy, CTC threshold costs could be 71% of colonoscopy costs. Our estimate of 43% is considerably lower than previous estimates in literature, because previous studies only compared CTC screening to 10-yearly colonoscopy, where we compared to different intervals of colonoscopy screening. © 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Führt Steuervereinfachung zu einer ,gerechteren" Einkommensverteilung?PERSPEKTIVEN DER WIRTSCHAFTSPOLITIK, Issue 1 2007Eine empirische Analyse für Deutschland This paper investigates the distributional impact of tax simplification. Our empirical analysis is based on a microsimulation model for the German tax and transfer system (FiFoSiM). We model tax simplification as the abolition of a set of controversial deductions from the tax base. We combine these simplifications with a tax rate schedule adjustment to preserve revenue neutrality. The combination with a flat tax rate increases the inequality of after-tax incomes whereas the combination with a directly progressive rate schedule adjustment reduces inequality. [source] Microsimulation Modelling of Tenure Choice and Grants to Promote Home OwnershipTHE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2006Gavin Wood This article develops a microsimulation model of the Australian housing market that has tenure choice as its principal focus. The article sheds light on the role played by relative prices, wealth and borrowing constraints in shaping housing tenure choices. We explore the model's capabilities as an aid to policy making by reporting the findings from an impact analysis of grant programs designed to ease the transition of first home buyers into owner occupation. We find a large demand for home ownership that is not met because of borrowing constraints. The need to meet financial institutions' down payment requirements is particularly important. Government grants made available to first home buyers will ease down payment requirements, but the formal incidence of such a subsidy is found to be inequitable among potential first home buyers, and its impact is largely to bring forward purchase decisions. [source] Welfare reform in European countries: a microsimulation analysis,THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 516 2007Herwig Immervoll This article compares the effects of increasing traditional welfare to introducing in-work benefits in the 15 (pre-enlargement) countries of the European Union. We use a labour supply model encompassing responses to taxes and transfers along both the intensive and extensive margins, and the EUROMOD microsimulation model to estimate current marginal and participation tax rates. We quantify the equity-efficiency trade-off for a range of elasticity parameters. In most countries, because of large existing welfare programmes with high phase-out rates, increasing traditional welfare is undesirable unless the redistributive tastes of the government are extreme. In contrast, the in-work benefit reform is desirable in a very wide set of cases. [source] ACCOUNTING FOR POPULATION AGEING IN TAX MICROSIMULATION MODELLING BY SURVEY REWEIGHTING,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 1 2006LIXIN CAI This paper investigates the use of sample reweighting, in a behavioural tax microsimulation model, to examine the implications for government taxes and expenditure of population ageing in Australia. First, a calibration approach to sample reweighting is described, producing new weights that achieve specified population totals for selected variables. Second, the performance of the Australian Bureau of Statistics' (ABS) weights provided with the 2000,2001 Survey of Income and Housing Cost (SIHC) was examined and it was found that reweighting does not improve the simulation outcomes for the 2001 situation, so the original ABS weights were retained for 2001. Third, the implications of changes in the age distribution of the population were examined, based on population projections to 2050. A ,pure' change in the age distribution was examined by keeping the aggregate population size fixed and changing only the relative frequencies in different age-gender groups. Finally, the effects of a policy change to benefit taper rates in Australia were compared for 2001 and 2050 population weights. It is suggested that this type of exercise provides an insight into the implications for government income tax revenue and social security expenditure of changes in the population, indicating likely pressures for policy changes. [source] A novel hypothesis on the sensitivity of the fecal occult blood test,CANCER, Issue 11 2009Results of a joint analysis of 3 randomized controlled trials Abstract BACKGROUND: Estimates of the fecal occult blood test (FOBT) (Hemoccult II) sensitivity differed widely between screening trials and led to divergent conclusions on the effects of FOBT screening. We used microsimulation modeling to estimate a preclinical colorectal cancer (CRC) duration and sensitivity for unrehydrated FOBT from the data of 3 randomized controlled trials of Minnesota, Nottingham, and Funen. In addition to 2 usual hypotheses on the sensitivity of FOBT, we tested a novel hypothesis where sensitivity is linked to the stage of clinical diagnosis in the situation without screening. METHODS: We used the MISCAN-Colon microsimulation model to estimate sensitivity and duration, accounting for differences between the trials in demography, background incidence, and trial design. We tested 3 hypotheses for FOBT sensitivity: sensitivity is the same for all preclinical CRC stages, sensitivity increases with each stage, and sensitivity is higher for the stage in which the cancer would have been diagnosed in the absence of screening than for earlier stages. Goodness-of-fit was evaluated by comparing expected and observed rates of screen-detected and interval CRC. RESULTS: The hypothesis with a higher sensitivity in the stage of clinical diagnosis gave the best fit. Under this hypothesis, sensitivity of FOBT was 51% in the stage of clinical diagnosis and 19% in earlier stages. The average duration of preclinical CRC was estimated at 6.7 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis corroborated a long duration of preclinical CRC, with FOBT most sensitive in the stage of clinical diagnosis. Cancer 2009. © 2009 American Cancer Society. [source] | |||||||||||||