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Meteorological Centre (meteorological + centre)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Earth and Environmental Science	50%

Selected Abstracts

Decadal trend of climate in the Tibetan Plateau,regional temperature and precipitation

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 16 2008
Z. X. Xu
Abstract The Tibetan Plateau has one of the most complex climates in the world. Analysis of the climate in this region is important for understanding the climate change worldwide. In this study, climate patterns and trends in the Tibetan Plateau were analysed for the period from 1961 to 2001. Air temperature and precipitation were analysed on monthly and annual time scales using data collected from the National Meteorological Centre, China Meteorological Administration. Nonlinear slopes were estimated and analysed to investigate the spatial and temporal trends of air temperature and precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau using a Mann,Kendall method. Spatial analysis of air temperature and precipitation variability across the Tibetan Plateau was undertaken. While most trends are local in nature, there are general basinwide patterns. Temperature during the last several decades showed a long-term warmer trend, especially the areas around Dingri and Zogong stations, which formed two increasing centres. Only one of the stations investigated exhibited decreasing trend, and this was not significant. Precipitation in the Tibetan Plateau has increased in most regions of the study area over the past several decades, especially in the eastern and central part, while the western Tibetan Region exhibited a decreased trend over the same period. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Can 4D-Var use dynamical information from targeted observations of a baroclinic structure?

THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 651 2010
E. A. Irvine
Abstract Targeted observations are generally taken in regions of high baroclinicity, but often show little impact. One plausible explanation is that important dynamical information, such as upshear tilt, is not extracted from the targeted observations by the data assimilation scheme and used to correct initial condition error. This is investigated by generating pseudo targeted observations which contain a singular vector (SV) structure that is not present in the background field or routine observations, i.e. assuming that the background has an initial condition error with tilted growing structure. Experiments were performed for a single case-study with varying numbers of pseudo targeted observations. These were assimilated by the Met Office four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation scheme, which uses a 6 h window for observations and background-error covariances calculated using the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) method. The forecasts were run using the operational Met Office Unified Model on a 24 km grid. The results presented clearly demonstrate that a 6 h window 4D-Var system is capable of extracting baroclinic information from a limited set of observations and using it to correct initial condition error. To capture the SV structure well (projection of 0.72 in total energy), 50 sondes over an area of 1×106 km2 were required. When the SV was represented by only eight sondes along an example targeting flight track covering a smaller area, the projection onto the SV structure was lower; the resulting forecast perturbations showed an SV structure with increased tilt and reduced initial energy. The total energy contained in the perturbations decreased as the SV structure was less well described by the set of observations (i.e. as fewer pseudo observations were assimilated). The assimilated perturbation had lower energy than the SV unless the pseudo observations were assimilated with the dropsonde observation errors halved from operational values. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July,September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study

ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2010
Yi He
Abstract We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Determining the optimal concentration of fluoride in drinking water in Pakistan

COMMUNITY DENTISTRY AND ORAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, Issue 3 2004
Ayyaz Ali Khan
Abstract , Objectives:,This study was designed to determine the optimal concentrations of fluoride for drinking water in Pakistan. Clinical dental examination of 1020 school children aged 12 years was carried out in 19 cities of Pakistan. Correlation between concentrations of water fluoride, caries and fluorosis was investigated by analyzing the data on fluoride concentrations in drinking water in the sampled population for which the caries and the fluorosis levels were also measured. Methods:,The optimal level of fluoride in drinking water is universally calculated by applying the equation of Galagan and Vermillion, which permits the calculation of water intake as a function of temperature. The annual mean maximum temperatures (AMMT) recorded during the last 5 years were collected from the meteorological centres of the 28 divisional headquarter stations. The average AMMT of Pakistan is 29°C at which the optimal fluoride in drinking water of Pakistan was calculated to be 0.7 ppm. As drinking habits differ in various parts of the world, determination of optimal concentration of fluoride for drinking water in Pakistan was performed using a modified Galagan and Vermillion equation, which applies a correction factor of 0.56 to the equation. The optimal fluoride in drinking water in Pakistan using this modified equation was determined to be 0.39 ppm. Results:,Observation of the correlation showed that a fluoride concentration of 0.35 ppm in drinking water was associated with maximum reduction in dental caries and a 10% prevalence of fluorosis. Conclusions:,Determining the most appropriate concentrations of fluoride in drinking water is crucial for communities. It is imperative that each country calculates its own optimal level of fluoride in drinking water based on the dose,response relationship of fluoride in drinking water with the levels of caries and fluorosis. Climatic conditions, dietary habits of the population and other possible fluoride exposures need to be considered in formulating these recommendations. [source]