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Market Dynamics (market + dynamics)
Kinds of Market Dynamics Selected AbstractsTHE EMERGENCE OF CENTRALITY IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: COMPARING LAND MARKET DYNAMICS MEASURED UNDER MONOCENTRIC AND SEMIPARAMETRIC MODELS,JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 5 2006Christian L. Redfearn ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the emergence of Krakow's historic core as the city's economic center after Poland's economic reforms of 1989,reforms that introduced market forces into land markets. Using a semiparametric approach to identify pricing centers, an evolving and polycentric price surface is revealed. While the traditional city center emerges as the dominant node, the evolution of the price surface is far more complex than that found using alternative approaches. Accordingly, it yields superior explanatory power compared to simpler monocentric models and should caution against their use in metropolitan areas in transition or those that are polycentric. [source] Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in GermanyGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2010Ronald Bachmann Gross worker flows; sectoral and occupational mobility; turbulence Abstract. This paper analyzes the interaction between structural change and labor market dynamics in West Germany, during a period when industrial employment declined by more than 30% and service sector employment more than doubled. Using transition data on individual workers, we document a marked increase in structural change and turbulence, in particular since 1990. Net employment changes resulted partly from an increase in gross flows, but also from an increase in the net transition ,yield' at any given gross worker turnover. In growing sectors, net structural change was driven by accessions from non-participation rather than unemployment; contracting sectors reduced their net employment primarily via lower accessions from non-participation. German reunification and Eastern enlargement appear to have contributed significantly to this accelerated pace of structural change. [source] Labor Market Dynamics During a Period of Structural Change: California inEarly 1990sGROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2000Alejandra Cox Edwards This paper contributes to the literature on labor market dynamics in four ways. First, unlike most of the existing literature, it uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This panel survey, with a 32-month window of observation, allows a more precise measure of employment flows than other data sources. It was found that one out of three workers experiences a job transition during the observation period. Second, it focuses on the state of California during an economic cycle. According to these estimates, the net decline in employment represents just 2.6 percent of all job rotations (separations offset by accessions), and gross job flows were as important during the downturn as they were during the economic expansion. Third, it estimates gross flows by sector, and finds significant variation in gross flows relative to employment across sectors of economic activity. Fourth, it examines the coexistence of cyclical and structural changes of California in the early 1990s. The results suggest a labor market link between structural changes and economic cycles. [source] Industrial Specialization, Catching-up and Labour Market DynamicsMETROECONOMICA, Issue 1 2000Michael A. Landesmann This paper presents a dynamic model as a heuristic tool to discuss some issues of changing industrial specialization which arise in the context of catching-up processes of (technologically) less advanced economies and the impact which various scenarios of such catching-up processes might have on the labour market dynamics both in the advanced and in the catching-up economies. In analysing the evolution of international specialization, we demonstrate the twin pressures exerted upon the industrial structures of "northern" economies: competition from "type-A southern" economies, which maintain a comparative competitive strength in labour-intensive and less skill-intensive branches, and competition from "type-B catching-up" economies, whose catching-up increasingly focuses upon branches in which the initial productivity gaps and hence the scope for catching-up are the highest. The contrast between these two catching-up scenarios allows the explicit analysis of the implications of "comparative advantage switchovers" between northern and southern (type B) economies for labour market dynamics. [source] FROM DISCRETE-TIME MODELS TO CONTINUOUS-TIME, ASYNCHRONOUS MODELING OF FINANCIAL MARKETSCOMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE, Issue 2 2007Katalin Boer Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information asymmetry, and investigate the difference caused in the market dynamics between the discrete-time simulation and continuous-time, asynchronous simulation. We show that the characteristics of the market prices are different in the two cases, and observe that additional information is being revealed in the continuous-time, asynchronous models, which can be acted upon by the agents in such models. Because most financial markets are continuous and asynchronous in nature, our results indicate that explicit consideration of this fundamental characteristic of financial markets cannot be ignored in their agent-based modeling. [source] Environment and Modernity in Transitional China: Frontiers of Ecological ModernizationDEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2006Arthur P. J. Mol The process of institutionalizing environmental interests and considerations in Western (especially, but not only, European) industrialized societies has been reflected and theorized upon by social scientists, many of whom have adopted the ,ecological modernization' framework. One of the key questions on the research agenda of ecological modernization is its appropriateness for developing or industrializing countries in other parts of the world. This contribution analyses to what extent environmental reforms in contemporary China can be interpreted as ecological modernization. It focuses on the similarities and differences between Chinese and European modes or styles of ecological modernization with respect to the role of state institutions, market dynamics, civil society pressure and international integration. [source] Overdose deaths following previous non-fatal heroin overdose: Record linkage of ambulance attendance and death registry dataDRUG AND ALCOHOL REVIEW, Issue 4 2009MARK A. STOOVÉ Abstract Introduction and Aims. Experiencing previous non-fatal overdoses have been identified as a predictor of subsequent non-fatal overdoses; however, few studies have investigated the association between previous non-fatal overdose experiences and overdose mortality. We examined overdose mortality among injecting drug users who had previously been attended by an ambulance for a non-fatal heroin overdose. Design and Methods. Using a retrospective cohort design, we linked data on non-fatal heroin overdose cases obtained from ambulance attendance records in Melbourne, Australia over a 5-year period (2000,2005) with a national death register. Results. 4884 people who were attended by ambulance for a non-fatal heroin overdose were identified. One hundred and sixty-four overdose deaths occurred among this cohort, with an average overdose mortality rate of 1.20 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.03,1.40). Mortality rate decreased 10-fold after 2000 coinciding with widely reported declines in heroin availability. Being male, of older age (>35 years) and having been attended multiple times for previous non-fatal overdoses were associated with increased mortality risk. Discussion and Conclusions. As the first to show a direct association between non-fatal overdose and subsequent overdose mortality, this study has important implications for the prevention of overdose mortality. This study also shows the profound effect of macro-level heroin market dynamics on overdose mortality.[Stoové MA, Dietze PM, Jolley D. Overdose deaths following previous non-fatal heroin overdose: Record linkage of ambulance attendance and death registry data. Drug Alcohol Rev 2009;28:347,352] [source] Oil and the Euro area economyECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 60 2009Gert Peersman Summary We examine the macroeconomic effects of different types of oil shocks and the oil transmission mechanism in the Euro area. A comparison is made with the US and across individual member countries. First, we find that the underlying source of the oil price shift is crucial to determine the repercussions on the economy and the appropriate monetary policy reaction. Second, the transmission mechanism is considerably different compared to the US. In particular, inflationary effects in the US are mainly driven by a strong direct pass-through of rising energy prices and indirect effects of higher production costs. In contrast, Euro area inflation reacts sluggishly and is much more driven by second-round effects of increasing wages. The monetary policy reaction of the ECB to oil shocks is also strikingly different compared to the FED. The inflation objective, relative to the output stabilization objective, appears more important for Euro area monetary authorities than for the FED. Third, there are substantial asymmetries across member countries. These differences are due to different labour market dynamics which are further aggravated by a common monetary policy stance which does not fit all. --- Gert Peersman and Ine Van Robays [source] Share Repurchase Offers and Liquidity: An Examination of Temporary and Permanent EffectsFINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2008Nandkumar Nayar Open-market repurchase programs do not allow for precise estimates of share buy-back intensity to measure liquidity effects. To circumvent the uncertainty surrounding the quantity and timing of shares truly acquired in repurchase programs and to measure their long-term impact, we examine Dutch auctions and fixed-price tender offers. We investigate both the temporary and permanent liquidity effects of share repurchase programs and find that the improvement in liquidity is transitory and limited to the tender period when the firm's offer to repurchase shares is outstanding. Improvements in liquidity over longer intervals appear to be the result of an overall price improvement and a reduction in volatility rather than the result of structural change in market dynamics. [source] Sectoral Transformation, Turbulence and Labor Market Dynamics in GermanyGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2010Ronald Bachmann Gross worker flows; sectoral and occupational mobility; turbulence Abstract. This paper analyzes the interaction between structural change and labor market dynamics in West Germany, during a period when industrial employment declined by more than 30% and service sector employment more than doubled. Using transition data on individual workers, we document a marked increase in structural change and turbulence, in particular since 1990. Net employment changes resulted partly from an increase in gross flows, but also from an increase in the net transition ,yield' at any given gross worker turnover. In growing sectors, net structural change was driven by accessions from non-participation rather than unemployment; contracting sectors reduced their net employment primarily via lower accessions from non-participation. German reunification and Eastern enlargement appear to have contributed significantly to this accelerated pace of structural change. [source] Labor Market Dynamics During a Period of Structural Change: California inEarly 1990sGROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2000Alejandra Cox Edwards This paper contributes to the literature on labor market dynamics in four ways. First, unlike most of the existing literature, it uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). This panel survey, with a 32-month window of observation, allows a more precise measure of employment flows than other data sources. It was found that one out of three workers experiences a job transition during the observation period. Second, it focuses on the state of California during an economic cycle. According to these estimates, the net decline in employment represents just 2.6 percent of all job rotations (separations offset by accessions), and gross job flows were as important during the downturn as they were during the economic expansion. Third, it estimates gross flows by sector, and finds significant variation in gross flows relative to employment across sectors of economic activity. Fourth, it examines the coexistence of cyclical and structural changes of California in the early 1990s. The results suggest a labor market link between structural changes and economic cycles. [source] Factors Associated with the Income Distribution of Full-Time Physicians: A Quantile Regression ApproachHEALTH SERVICES RESEARCH, Issue 5 2007Ya-Chen Tina Shih Objective. Physician income is generally high, but quite variable; hence, physicians have divergent perspectives regarding health policy initiatives and market reforms that could affect their incomes. We investigated factors underlying the distribution of income within the physician population. Data Sources. Full-time physicians (N=10,777) from the restricted version of the 1996,1997 Community Tracking Study Physician Survey (CTS-PS), 1996 Area Resource File, and 1996 health maintenance organization penetration data. Study Design. We conducted separate analyses for primary care physicians (PCPs) and specialists. We employed least square and quantile regression models to examine factors associated with physician incomes at the mean and at various points of the income distribution, respectively. We accounted for the complex survey design for the CTS-PS data using appropriate weighted procedures and explored endogeneity using an instrumental variables method. Principal Findings. We detected widespread and subtle effects of many variables on physician incomes at different points (10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles) in the distribution that were undetected when employing regression estimations focusing on only the means or medians. Our findings show that the effects of managed care penetration are demonstrable at the mean of specialist incomes, but are more pronounced at higher levels. Conversely, a gender gap in earnings occurs at all levels of income of both PCPs and specialists, but is more pronounced at lower income levels. Conclusions. The quantile regression technique offers an analytical tool to evaluate policy effects beyond the means. A longitudinal application of this approach may enable health policy makers to identify winners and losers among segments of the physician workforce and assess how market dynamics and health policy initiatives affect the overall physician income distribution over various time intervals. [source] Non-linear interest rate dynamics and forecasting: evidence for US and Australian interest ratesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2009David G. McMillan Abstract Recent empirical finance research has suggested the potential for interest rate series to exhibit non-linear adjustment to equilibrium. This paper examines a variety of models designed to capture these effects and compares both their in-sample and out-of-sample performance with a linear alternative. Using short- and long-term interest rates we report evidence that a logistic smooth-transition error-correction model is able to best characterize the data and provide superior out-of-sample forecasts, especially for the short rate, over both linear and non-linear alternatives. This model suggests that market dynamics differ depending on whether the deviations from long-run equilibrium are above or below the threshold value. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The dynamics of the health labour marketINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2006Marko Vujicic Abstract One of the most important components of health care systems is human resources for health (HRH),the people that deliver the services. One key challenge facing policy makers is to ensure that health care systems have sufficient HRH capacity to deliver services that improve or maintain population health. In a predominantly public system, this involves policy makers assessing the health care needs of the population, deriving the HRH requirements to meet those needs, and putting policies in place that move the current HRH employment level, skill mix, geographic distribution and productivity towards the desired level. This last step relies on understanding the labour market dynamics of the health care sector, specifically the determinants of labour demand and labour supply. We argue that traditional HRH policy in developing countries has focussed on determining the HRH requirements to address population needs and has largely ignored the labour market dynamics aspect. This is one of the reasons that HRH policies often do not achieve their objectives. We argue for the need to incorporate more explicitly the behaviour of those who supply labour,doctors, nurses and other providers,those who demand labour, and how these actors respond to incentives when formulating health workforce policy. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Urban Regime Theory: A Normative-Empirical CritiqueJOURNAL OF URBAN AFFAIRS, Issue 1 2002Jonathan S. Davies Over the past 10 years, urban regime theory has become the dominant paradigm for studying urban politics in liberal democracies. Yet there is disagreement about how far it can help us to understand urban political processes. This article argues that regime theory is best understood as a theory of structuring with limits in its analysis of the market economy. These limits undermine its ability to explain the importance of political agency,the scope of individual or collective choice in political decisions and the impact of those choices in the evolution of US cities. It is further argued that there are important normative dimensions to urban regime theory, most fully articulated in Elkin's commercial republic, which academic commentaries have not acknowledged. However, the empirical analysis developed in regime theory contradicts its normative objectives. The absence of a conceptualization of market dynamics, in the light of pessimism about the prospects for equitable regime governance, not only limits it as a theory of structuring but it also renders it unable to explain how the commercial republic can be realized. Regime theory is, therefore, unconvincing for two reasons. It cannot explain how much local politics matter, and it fails to demonstrate that its normative goal,more equitable regime governance,can be achieved, given the realities of the US market economy. Regime theory needs a more developed understanding of structuring. It may be fruitful, therefore, for regime theorists to re-engage critically with variants of Marxism, which unlike Structuralism, recognize the possibility of agency. [source] How Many Labour Force States?LABOUR, Issue 2 2006An Analysis Based on the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) The goal is to examine whether there are statistically significant differences between the unemployed and non-participants, as well as inside each of the two groups, considering their transitions in the job market. Using logistic regression for a pooled cross-section time-series sample of employed as well as non-employed persons, three different Out of Work subgroups are identified: Seeking Out of Work, Attached Out of Work, and Voluntary Out of Work. The first group can be broadly assimilated to the official definition of unemployment, International Labour Organization unemployment, whereas all the others are usually classified as economically inactive. Nonetheless, the last two groups are characterized by significantly different transition rates, showing a behaviourally distinct attitude in their labour market dynamics. This result points out that the aggregate non-employment has several dimensions, which are not caught by the distinction between unemployment and economic inactivity, and should be accounted for by policy makers and researchers. [source] Industrial Specialization, Catching-up and Labour Market DynamicsMETROECONOMICA, Issue 1 2000Michael A. Landesmann This paper presents a dynamic model as a heuristic tool to discuss some issues of changing industrial specialization which arise in the context of catching-up processes of (technologically) less advanced economies and the impact which various scenarios of such catching-up processes might have on the labour market dynamics both in the advanced and in the catching-up economies. In analysing the evolution of international specialization, we demonstrate the twin pressures exerted upon the industrial structures of "northern" economies: competition from "type-A southern" economies, which maintain a comparative competitive strength in labour-intensive and less skill-intensive branches, and competition from "type-B catching-up" economies, whose catching-up increasingly focuses upon branches in which the initial productivity gaps and hence the scope for catching-up are the highest. The contrast between these two catching-up scenarios allows the explicit analysis of the implications of "comparative advantage switchovers" between northern and southern (type B) economies for labour market dynamics. [source] Dynamics of petroleum markets in OECD countries in a monthly VAR,VEC model (1995,2007)OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 1 2008Mehdi Asali This paper contains some results of a study in which the dynamics of petroleum markets in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is investigated through a vector auto regression (VAR),vector error correction model. The time series of the model comprises the monthly data for the variables demand for oil in the OECD, WTI in real term as a benchmark oil price, industrial production in OECD as a proxy for income and commercial stocks of crude oil and oil products in OECD for the time period of January 1995 to September 2007. The detailed results of this empirical research are presented in different sections of the paper; nevertheless, the general result that emerges from this study could be summarised as follows: (i) there is convincing evidence of the series being non-stationary and integrated of order one I(1) with clear signs of co-integration relations between the series; (ii) the VAR system of the empirical study appears stable and restores its dynamics as usual, following a shock to the rate of changes of different variables of the model, taking between five and eight periods (months in our case); (iii) we find the lag length of 2 as being optimal for the estimated VAR model; (iv) significant impact of changes in the commercial crude and products' inventory level on oil price and on demand for oil is highlighted in our empirical study and in different formulations of the VAR model, indicating the importance of the changes in the stocks' level on oil market dynamics; and (v) income elasticity of deman for oil appears to be prominent and statistically significant in most estimated models of the VAR system in the long run, while price elasticity of demand for oil is found to be negligible and insignificant in the short run. However, while aggregate oil consumption does not appear to be very sensitive to the changes of oil prices (which is believed to be because of the so-called ,rebound effect' of oil (energy) efficiency in the macro level) in the macro level, the declining trend of oil intensity (oil used for production of unit value of goods and services), particularly when there is an upward trend in oil price, clearly indicates the channels through which persistent changes in oil prices could affect the demand for oil in OECD countries. [source] Part-time workers and economic expansion: comparing the 1980s and 1990s with U.S. state data,PAPERS IN REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2003Mark D. Partridge Part-time employment; involuntary part-time; regional labor markets; labor shortages Abstract. Economics know little about how the role of part-time workers affect regional labor market dynamics during economic expansion. This study examines this issue using U.S. state data from the 1980s and 1990s. Compared to the 1980s, the labor market during the late 1990s is associated with widespread labor shortages, making this an excellent comparison of how part-time employment responds to economic growth. One key finding is that part-time employment was less responsive to job growth during the 1990s than the 1980s, especially for women. Several explanations are put forth, including firm responses to labor shortages, employer perceptions of inferior part-time worker characteristics and welfare reform. [source] ,Gentrifying the re-urbanisation debate', not vice versa: the uneven socio-spatial implications of changing transitions to adulthood in BrusselsPOPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE (PREVIOUSLY:-INT JOURNAL OF POPULATION GEOGRAPHY), Issue 5 2010Mathieu Van Criekingen Abstract This paper challenges recent views of the sociospatial transformations of inner-city neighbourhoods as ,reurbanisation', for, it is argued, such views tend to divorce the demographic dimensions of the processes at play from their contrasted social class meanings and implications. In addition, it argues that the ongoing demographic diversification of inner cities in the Western world do not stand for the obsolescence of gentrification as a key concept for understanding sociospatial transformations in these places, but rather that this trend alerts to a need to complement existing interpretations of gentrification with new insights into its demographic underpinnings. This point is illustrated via an exploration of the implications of contemporary changes in transition to adulthood for urban sociospatial structures and housing market dynamics in Brussels. Findings stress that the rapid rise of middle-class young adults in non-family households in Brussels' inner neighbourhoods brings about the reinvestment of the existing private rental market, fuelling in turn a process of rental gentrification. Such process exacerbates the competition for residential space in the city, being strongly detrimental to low-income, working-class households. The paper concludes that notwithstanding all local specifics, everywhere at stake is the need to keep a clear sense of the multiple social class stratifications of demographic change in inner neighbourhoods. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The digital divide: Who really benefits from the proposed solutions for closing the gapPROCEEDINGS OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY (ELECTRONIC), Issue 1 2002Roland D. Houston The authors conducted an exploratory content analysis of 269 English language articles about the digital divide to identify potential connections between proposed solutions and the strategic interests of the proposers, or stakeholders. Articles were coded by type of suggested solution and by type of stakeholder offering the solution. Educators predominated in the study literature, stressing the need for a change in Internet connectivity, educational content, and a change in user education, socioeconomic status (SES), and culture. The digital industry provided the next largest number of articles, suggesting governmental policy changes to promote new equipment, increased Internet connectivity, the training of digital industry workers, and a change in content of the Internet. Articles from the nondigital business community suggested that no gap existed or that market dynamics (the status quo) would close it. [source] STRATEGY AND STRUCTURE OF MARKET COMPETITION: THE TAIWANESE CABLE TV INDUSTRY IN THE 1990sTHE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 3 2002Lu-Lin CHENG Cable TV plays a dominant role in the media environment of Taiwanese society. Before the passage of the Cable TV Law in 1993, the industry was a vibrant informal sector; it was highly differentiated, and acted as a democratic alternative to the formal media. The 1993 Cable TV Law, which designed a competitive market with five licenses issued in each area, was touted as a victory for democracy by the opposition parties. In less than a decade, however, drastic merger movements led to a monopolistic structure. The abuse of monopolistic power has become pervasive. This article studies this unexpected historical twist by examining the industry's market dynamics during the country's democratization in the 1990s. To show the path-dependent mechanisms in the nonlinear development trajectory of the market, a sociological approach is applied that emphasizes firms' competitive strategies in controlling the multiple dimensions of uncertainties and rules that induce this competition. [source] Volatility and commodity price dynamicsTHE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 11 2004Robert S. Pindyck Commodity prices are volatile, and volatility itself varies over time. Changes in volatility can affect market variables by directly affecting the marginal value of storage, and by affecting a component of the total marginal cost of production, the opportunity cost of producing the commodity now rather than waiting for more price information. I examine the role of volatility in short-run commodity market dynamics and the determinants of volatility itself. I develop a structural model of inventories, spot, and futures prices that explicitly accounts for volatility, and estimate it using daily and weekly data for the petroleum complex: crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1029,1047, 2004 [source] Modeling market dynamics in competitive communication consumer marketsBELL LABS TECHNICAL JOURNAL, Issue 2 2008Yuliy Baryshnikov Emergence of converged multimedia services has led operators to seek clear tactical and strategic advantages in developing differentiated service offerings. Effectiveness of the offer strategies is influenced by factors such as service delivery investment, operations cost, market segment preferences, competitive multimedia offers, service pricing, and consumer price sensitivities. Differentiation in any of these factors in a competitive environment has a direct influence on market share and profitability of communication service providers. This paper describes a modeling approach that explicitly considers the factors mentioned. The model can be used to quantify the impact of operator's offer and the pricing strategies amid market share acquisition, churn reduction, and profitability. This paper presents the application of the model to various converged operator scenarios such as voice convergence, triple-and quadruple-play, and xVNO operators that may utilize services such as "targeted advertising" to subsidize telephony services. The study presented in this paper can be contrasted with the significant number of studies (in marketing literature, primarily) dedicated to the understanding of the market behavior of consumers, and of their reactions to price, features, or marketing campaigns. © 2008 Alcatel-Lucent. [source] Land Market Interactions between Heterogeneous Agents in a Heterogeneous Landscape,Tracing the Macro-Scale Effects of Individual Trade-Offs between Environmental Amenities and DisamenitiesCANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2009Tatiana Filatova Heterogeneity in both the spatial environment and economic agents is a crucial driver of land market dynamics. We present an agent-based land market model where land from agriculture use is transferred into urban. The model combines the microeconomic demand, supply, and bidding foundations of spatial economics models with the spatial heterogeneity of spatial econometric models in a single methodological platform. Heterogeneous agents exchange heterogeneous spatial goods via simulated bilateral market interactions. We model a coastal city where both coastal amenities and flooding or erosion disamenities drive land market outcomes, facilitating separate analysis of the effects of each driver on land rents and land development patterns. We also analyze the implications of homogeneous versus heterogeneous but unbiased flood risk perceptions. Since buyers with low risk perceptions drive market outcomes, spatial development under heterogeneous risk perceptions differs qualitatively, with more expansion into risky areas. Our results highlight the shortcomings of policy models based on representative agent assumptions and the importance of including agent-level data in empirical modeling. L'hétérogénéité de l'environnement spatial et des agents économiques constitue un élément moteur crucial de la dynamique du marché foncier. Nous présentons un modèle multi-agent du marché foncier dans lequel des terres agricoles ont été transférées pour des fins urbaines. Le modèle combine les fondements microéconomiques de la demande, de l'offre et des enchères de modèles de l'économie spatiale avec l'hétérogénéité spatiale des modèles de l'économétrie spatiale dans une plateforme méthodologique unique. Les agents hétérogènes échangent des biens hétérogènes par le biais du jeu des forces du marché bilatéral simulé. Nous avons modélisé une ville côtière où les agréments côtiers et les désagréments causés par les inondations ou l'érosion influent sur le marché foncier, facilitant l'analyse individuelle des effets de chaque élément moteur sur les loyers fonciers et les modèles d'aménagement de terrain. Nous avons également analysé les répercussions des perceptions homogènes et hétérogènes mais non biaisées à l'égard du risque d'inondation. Étant donné que les acquéreurs qui ont de faibles perceptions du risque motivent les effets du marché, le développement spatial selon des perceptions hétérogènes à l'égard du risque varie qualitativement, avec plus d'expansion dans les zones à risque. Nos résultats ont mis en lumière les lacunes des modèles de politiques fondés sur les hypothèses d'un agent représentatif et l'importance d'inclure des données sur l'hétérogénéité des agents dans la modélisation empirique. [source] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||