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Macroeconomic Theories (macroeconomic + theory)
Selected AbstractsA common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling errorJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 3 2005William T. Gavin Abstract Is there a common model inherent in macroeconomic data? Macroeconomic theory suggests that market economies of various nations should share many similar dynamic patterns; as a result, individual country empirical models, for a wide variety of countries, often include the same variables. Yet, empirical studies often find important roles for idiosyncratic shocks in the differing macroeconomic performance of countries. We use forecasting criteria to examine the macrodynamic behaviour of 15 OECD countries in terms of a small set of familiar, widely used core economic variables, omitting country-specific shocks. We find this small set of variables and a simple VAR ,common model' strongly support the hypothesis that many industrialized nations have similar macroeconomic dynamics. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS, Issue 4 2001Filippo Altissimo This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non-linear VAR model. The non-linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross-correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime-dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long-run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] How to Determine the Number of Relations Among Deterministic TrendsTHE JAPANESE ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2000Michio Hatanaka Hatanaka (1998a) showed that the number of relations between deterministic trends of different variables played an important role in empirical studies of macroeconomic theories. In the present paper two methods are presented to determine the number from the time-series data. The one investigates eigenvalues of the data covariance matrix on a parametric model of trends accommodating interrelationships. The other analyses OLS residuals on the basis of a looser concept of interrelated trends. JEL Classification Numbers: C32, C50. [source] Liberalized capital markets, state autonomy, and European monetary unionEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL RESEARCH, Issue 2 2003Erik Jones The conventional wisdom is that capital market integration and now monetary union have limited the options available to macroeconomic policy makers in Europe. The question considered here, therefore, is why many prominent Europeans insist that monetary union is a rational response to capital market integration. Monetary union eliminates exchange rate volatility , but only at a cost in terms of tightening the constraints on macroeconomic policy. Using a combination of macroeconomic theory and (descriptive) statistical analysis of European performance, I find that: capital market integration has increased macroeconomic flexibility through a mitigation of the current account constraint; European states have combined macroeconomic policies in a manner that has taken advantage of greater flexibility on the current account; the cost of such flexibility in terms of the impact of financial volatility on the real economy manifests differently in different countries; and monetary union both enhances flexibility on the current account and mitigates financial volatility. [source] | ||||||||||