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Macroeconomic Performance (macroeconomic + performance)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting83%
Humanities and Social Sciences16%

Selected Abstracts

MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND INEQUALITY: BRAZIL, 1983,94

THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 1 2009
Manoel BITTENCOURT
D31; E31; O11; O54 We examine how poor macroeconomic performance, mainly in terms of high rates of inflation, affected earnings inequality in the 1980s and early 1990s in Brazil. The results, based initially on aggregate time series, and then on sub-national panel time-series data and analysis, show that the extreme inflation, combined with an imperfect process of financial adaptation and incomplete indexation coverage, had a regressive and significant impact on inequality. The implication of the results is that sound macroeconomic policies, which keep inflation low and stable in the long run, should be a necessary first step of any policy package implemented to alleviate inequality in Brazil. [source]

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: ARE THEY RELATED?

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2005
DON BREDIN
We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957,2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance. [source]

Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 3 2006
Stilianos Fountas
Abstract We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth. [source]

Bargaining (De)centralization, Macroeconomic Performance and Control over the Employment Relationship

BRITISH JOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS, Issue 1 2003
Franz Traxler
Based on data for 20 OECD countries, this paper analyses the effect of bargaining centralization on performance and control over the employment relationship. Rejecting both the corporatist thesis and the hump,shape thesis, the paper finds that performance either increases or decreases with centralization, depending on the ability of the higher level to bind lower levels. There is a clear effect on control in that bargaining coverage significantly declines with decentralization. Employers can therefore expect to extend management prerogatives, rather than improve performance, when enforcing decentralization. Hence the literature on bargaining structures when focusing on performance has lost sight of their contested nature. [source]

Activist Macroeconomic Policy, Election Effects and the Formation of Expectations: Evidence from OECD Economies

ECONOMICS & POLITICS, Issue 2 2000
David Kiefer
We examine the explanatory power of a political,business cycle theory in which governments practice short-run policy to lessen the impact of exogenous shocks. Governments have ideological objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. The most prominent version, the rational partisan model, incorporates forward-looking expectations. This model can be compared to a competing model based on backward-looking expectations. Alesina and Roubini's recent advocacy of the rational model uses OECD data. Our reconsideration of the same data, updated to 1995, suggests that the adaptive expectations version offers a better explanation than the rational one. [source]

Exchange Rate Regimes and Reforms: A Panel Analysis for the World versus OECD Countries,

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2006
Ansgar Belke
This paper examines the contemporaneous relationship between the exchange rate regime and structural economic reforms over a period of 30 years. Using panel data techniques, we look at both a broad ,world sample' and an OECD country sample. We investigate empirically whether structural reforms have complemented or substituted for monetary commitment in the attempt to improve macroeconomic performance. Our results suggest that, on average, an exchange rate rule positively correlates with the amount of overall structural reforms and of trade liberalization in particular. However, we do not find a significant and robust impact of exchange rate commitment on labour and product market reform. The results are similar for both the wider, more heterogeneous world sample and the panel of OECD economies. They contradict the hypothesis that exchange rate commitments may have slowed the pace of structural reform, but neither provides robust evidence that losing the possibility of an exchange rate adjustment promotes labour and product market reforms. [source]

Does Exchange Rate Policy Matter for Growth?

INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2003
Jeannine Bailliu
Previous studies on whether the nature of the exchange rate regime influences a country's medium-term growth performance have been based on a tripartite classification scheme that distinguishes between pegged, intermediate and flexible exchange rate regimes. This classification scheme, however, leads to a situation where two of the categories (intermediate and flexible) characterize solely the exchange rate regime, whereas the third (pegged) characterizes both the exchange rate regime and the monetary policy framework. Our study refines this classification scheme by accounting for different monetary policy frameworks, classifying monetary arrangements based on the presence of an explicit monetary policy ,anchor', such as the exchange rate or other targeted nominal variable. We estimate the impact of exchange rate arrangements on growth in a panel-data set of 60 countries over the period 1973,1998. We find evidence that exchange rate regimes characterized by a monetary policy anchor, whether they are pegged, intermediate, or flexible, exert a positive influence on economic growth. We also find evidence that intermediate/flexible regimes without an anchor are detrimental for growth. Our results thus suggest that it is the presence of a monetary policy anchor, rather than the type of exchange rate regime per se, that is important for economic growth. Furthermore, our work emphasizes the importance of considering the monetary policy framework that accompanies the exchange rate arrangement when assessing the macroeconomic performance of alternative exchange rate regimes. [source]

Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2003
Barry Eichengreen
Abstract Much ink has been spilled over the connections between capital account liberalization and growth. One reason that previous studies have been inconclusive, we show, is their failure to account for the impact of crises on growth and for the capacity of controls to limit those disruptive output effects. Accounting for these influences, it appears that controls influence macroeconomic performance through two channels, directly (what we think of as their positive impact on resource allocation and efficiency) and indirectly (by limiting the disruptive effects of crises at home and abroad). Because these influences work in opposite directions, it is not surprising that previous studies, in failing to distinguish between them, have been unable to agree whether the effect of controls tilts one way or the other. And because vulnerability to crises varies across countries and with the structure and performance of the international financial system, it is not surprising that the effects of capital account liberalization on growth are contingent and context specific. We document these patterns using two entirely different data sets: a panel of historical data for 21 countries covering the period 1880,1997, and a wider panel for the post-1971 period like that employed in other recent studies. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

A common model approach to macroeconomics: using panel data to reduce sampling error

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 3 2005
William T. Gavin
Abstract Is there a common model inherent in macroeconomic data? Macroeconomic theory suggests that market economies of various nations should share many similar dynamic patterns; as a result, individual country empirical models, for a wide variety of countries, often include the same variables. Yet, empirical studies often find important roles for idiosyncratic shocks in the differing macroeconomic performance of countries. We use forecasting criteria to examine the macrodynamic behaviour of 15 OECD countries in terms of a small set of familiar, widely used core economic variables, omitting country-specific shocks. We find this small set of variables and a simple VAR ,common model' strongly support the hypothesis that many industrialized nations have similar macroeconomic dynamics. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

ICT Innovation and Economic Performance: The Role of Financial Intermediation

KYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 4 2002
Aerdt Houben
This article considers the relationship between finance and the contribution of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) to macroeconomic performance. The general characteristics of ICT firms, especially their often ,high risk, high return' nature, suggest equity finance is more appropriate than debt finance. Also, the prevalence of information asymmetries tends to favour internal finance and venture capital with management participation. For a group of countries, we analyse correlations between financial structure and the ICT contribution to economic growth. Our results support the view that a market,oriented financial system and a well,developed venture capital market are key factors stimulating the emergence of the so,called ,New Economy'. This helps explain the considerable gap in productivity growth between the United States and Europe in the second half of the 1990s. [source]

Resource abundance vs. resource dependence in cross-country growth regressions

OPEC ENERGY REVIEW, Issue 2 2010
Annika Kropf
Having analysed the macroeconomic performance of large oil exporters, I found that, in many cases, rents from natural resources have been successfully used to enhance economic growth. Nevertheless, adherents of the ,resource curse' seem to have found ample evidence suggesting that resource-abundant countries grow slower than resource-poor countries. A review of empirical research on the ,resource curse' reveals that the variables used were usually proxies for resource dependence. These variables introduce a bias, making less developed economies per se more resource ,abundant' than developed economies. As a consequence, a new variable, not containing any information on a country's stage of development, was introduced. Comparing the variables on resource dependence and resource abundance in a model by Sachs and Warner, resource abundance was not significant. In a new model, resource abundance was even positively correlated with growth. [source]

Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance

OXFORD BULLETIN OF ECONOMICS & STATISTICS, Issue 3 2006
Stilianos Fountas
Abstract We use a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) model of inflation and output growth to examine the causality relationship among nominal uncertainty, real uncertainty and macroeconomic performance measured by the inflation and output growth rates. The application of the constant conditional correlation GARCH(1,1) model leads to a number of interesting conclusions. First, inflation does cause negative welfare effects, both directly and indirectly, i.e. via the inflation uncertainty channel. Secondly, in some countries, more inflation uncertainty provides an incentive to Central Banks to surprise the public by raising inflation unexpectedly. Thirdly, in contrast to the assumptions of some macroeconomic models, business cycle variability and the rate of economic growth are related. More variability in the business cycle leads to more output growth. [source]

The Political Economy of Polarization: The Italian Case, 1963,1987

POLITICS & POLICY, Issue 1 2003
Riccardo Pelizzo
Economic voting in Italy has received scant attention in the literature, and the few studies available show little or no empirical support for economic voting hypotheses as applied to Italy. We argue that this dearth of results is primarily due to poor operationalization and study design. In contrast to previous studies that focused on the relationship between the state of the economy and the electoral performance of individual parties, we investigate the impact of prices, employment, and economic output on the polarization of the party system. Using data on seven Italian national elections covering the period 1963,87, we show that polarization is, in fact, closely related to macroeconomic performance. Additionally, in contrast to past studies of Italy, the results are robust with respect to the lag period of the economic variables. [source]

MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND INEQUALITY: BRAZIL, 1983,94

THE DEVELOPING ECONOMIES, Issue 1 2009
Manoel BITTENCOURT
D31; E31; O11; O54 We examine how poor macroeconomic performance, mainly in terms of high rates of inflation, affected earnings inequality in the 1980s and early 1990s in Brazil. The results, based initially on aggregate time series, and then on sub-national panel time-series data and analysis, show that the extreme inflation, combined with an imperfect process of financial adaptation and incomplete indexation coverage, had a regressive and significant impact on inequality. The implication of the results is that sound macroeconomic policies, which keep inflation low and stable in the long run, should be a necessary first step of any policy package implemented to alleviate inequality in Brazil. [source]

Wage Rigidity: Measurement, Causes and Consequences,

THE ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 524 2007
Lorenz Goette
Wage rigidity , the observation that wages cannot be adjusted downwards , has important implications for labour markets and macroeconomic performance. Empirical evidence on the extent, causes and consequences of wage rigidity on the individual level is relatively scant, however. This Feature presents articles that apply a new methodology to estimate the incidence and extent of nominal and real wage rigidity among the employed in three major European countries (Germany, Italy and Great Britain). The results document the pervasiveness of nominal and, particularly, real wage rigidity in different institutional and economic environments, and a recent decline in real wage rigidity. [source]

Economics of Social Capital,

THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 2005
PARTHA DASGUPTA
The literature on the idea of ,social capital' is now enormous. Offering an alternative to impersonal markets and coercive states, the communitarian institutions built around social capital have looked attractive to scholars in the humanities and social sciences. The literature in consequence has a warm glow to it. In this article, I first study the various contexts in which the promises people make to one another are credible and then suggest that the accumulation of social capital is a possible route to creating such a context. I offer a tight definition of social capital , namely, interpersonal networks , so as not to prejudge its ability to enhance human well-being. The links between the microfoundations of social capital and the macroeconomic performance of economies are then studied. I also show that economic theory not only identifies circumstances in which communitarian institutions can function well, but that it also uncovers a dark side, namely, their capicity to permit one group to exploit another within long-term relationships. [source]

MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: ARE THEY RELATED?

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2005
DON BREDIN
We use a very general bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in-mean model and G7 monthly data covering the 1957,2003 period to test for the impact of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Our evidence supports a number of important conclusions. First, in most countries output growth uncertainty is a positive determinant of the output growth rate. Second, there is mixed evidence regarding the effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation and output growth. Hence, contrary to popular belief, uncertainty about the inflation rate is not necessarily detrimental to economic growth but in some cases it may also enhance growth. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect of output uncertainty on inflation. In sum, our results indicate that macroeconomic uncertainty may even improve macroeconomic performance. [source]

China's Macroeconomic Development: Stages and Nonlinear Convergence

CHINA AND WORLD ECONOMY, Issue 1 2006
Pingyao Lai
E20; E30; E61; F43 Abstract The central theme of this paper is that China's macroeconomic development can be divided into three distinct stages with significant trend changes. Market-oriented reform and opening to the outside world provide main driving forces for the convergence. However, the gradual reform and some inappropriate policies have caused serious ups and downs in China's macroeconomic performance. (Edited by Zhinan Zhang) [source]