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Macroeconomic News (macroeconomic + news)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	100%

Distribution within Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting

General & Introductory Finance & Investments	50%
General & Introductory Economics	25%

Selected Abstracts

Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2003
Gabriele Galati
This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the USA and the euro area during the first two years of EMU. We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the USA or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time. We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time. Finally, we find evidence that the impact of macroeconomic news on the euro/dollar rate was stronger when news switches from good to bad or vice versa. (J.E.L.: F31). [source]

Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

GERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 2 2006
Norbert Funke
Stock markets; macroeconomic news Abstract. Using daily data for the January 1997 to June 2002 period, we analyze similarities and differences in the impact of macroeconomic news on stock returns in the United States and Germany. We consider 27 different types of news for the United States and 12 different types of news for Germany. For the United States, we present evidence for asymmetric reactions of stock prices to news. In a boom (recession) period, bad (good) news on GDP growth and unemployment or lower (higher) than expected interest rates may be good news for stock prices. In the period under consideration there is little evidence for asymmetric effects in Germany. However, in the case of Germany, international news appears at least as important as domestic news. There is no evidence that US stock prices are influenced by German news. The analysis of bi-hourly data for Germany confirms these results. [source]

The Effects of Unanticipated Macroeconomic News on Debt Markets

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL RESEARCH, Issue 3 2003
Rohan Christie-David
Abstract We examine the effects of unanticipated macroeconomic news on two interest rate futures using intraday data. The surprises are identified on the basis of their potential effects on debt markets (positive or negative) and by their size (large, medium, or small). The results show distinct ex-post return patterns associated with different categories of news surprises. For example, large surprises have the strongest immediate effects whereas negative surprises have the longest persisting effects. Tests that examine the separate effects of each announcement suggest that debt responses vary with the size and potential effect of the news surprise in each announcement. [source]

Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE, Issue 5 2006
ALOK KUMAR
ABSTRACT Using a database of more than 1.85 million retail investor transactions over 1991,1996, we show that these trades are systematically correlated,that is, individuals buy (or sell) stocks in concert. Moreover, consistent with noise trader models, we find that systematic retail trading explains return comovements for stocks with high retail concentration (i.e., small-cap, value, lower institutional ownership, and lower-priced stocks), especially if these stocks are also costly to arbitrage. Macroeconomic news and analyst earnings forecast revisions do not explain these results. Collectively, our findings support a role for investor sentiment in the formation of returns. [source]

Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

Deterministic and Stochastic Methods for Estimation of Intra-day Seasonal Components with High Frequency Data

ECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 2 2001
Andrea Beltratti
We introduce a model for the analysis of intra-day volatility based on unobserved components. The stochastic seasonal component is essential to model time-varing intra-day effects. The model is estimated with high frequency data for Deutsche mark,US dollar for 1993 and 1996. The model performs well in terms of coherence with the theoretical aggregation properties of GARCH models, it is effective in terms of both forecasting ability and describing reactions to macroeconomic news. (J.E.L.: C14, C53, F31). [source]

Macroeconomic News and Stock Returns in the United States and Germany

THE INFLUENCE OF FUNDAMENTALS ON EXCHANGE RATES: FINDINGS FROM ANALYSES OF NEWS EFFECTS

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 4 2010
Rafael R. Rebitzky
Abstract As we survey the literature of macroeconomic news in the foreign exchange market, we can by now look back on nearly 30 years of research. The first studies which analysed news effects on exchange rates were established in the early 1990s (see, for example, Dornbusch). Almost at the same time Meese and Rogoff published their influential paper, revealing the forecasting inferiority in exchange rates of structural models against the random walk. This finding has shocked the pillars of exchange rate economics and thus cast general suspicion on research focusing on fundamentals in this field. The eventual rising popularity of event studies can partly be attributed to the re-establishment of the,raison d'être,of exchange rate economics. This work focuses on systematically surveying this literature with particular respect to its primary goal, i.e. shedding light on the analytical value of fundamental research. Thus, its major findings are, first, fundamental news does matter, whereas non-fundamental news matters to a lesser degree. Second, news influences exchange rates via two separated channels, i.e. incorporating common information into prices directly or indirectly based upon order flow. Third, with a few exceptions the impact of fundamental news on exchange rates is fairly stable over time. [source]

The Effects of Unanticipated Macroeconomic News on Debt Markets

An examination of the impact of macroeconomic news on the spot and futures treasuries markets

THE JOURNAL OF FUTURES MARKETS, Issue 5 2004
Marc W. Simpson
In this study we analyze the reaction of daily cash and futures prices for several Treasury securities to the release of U.S. macroeconomic news. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, the futures market is found to be cointegrated with the corresponding cash market. Second, of the 23 types of periodic macroeconomic announcements, 19 of them have a significant influence on either the cash or futures prices. Most notably, surprises in nonfarm payroll and Treasury budget significantly influence the cash and futures market across the entire maturity spectrum. Third, consistent with the Fisher and real activity hypotheses, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a negative influence on cash and futures prices. Finally, hedging with Treasury futures appears to offer investors protection from inflation-related fluctuations in interest rates, but not against fluctuations arising due to variations in real output. Some important policy implications of the results are offered. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:453,478, 2004 [source]