			Home About us Contact

Macroeconometric Model (macroeconometric + model)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	100%

Selected Abstracts

The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Some Results from a Macroeconometric Model

THE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 4 2000
Richard Arden
This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock,measured by a change in interest rates,affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non-linearities which we have introduced explicitly. [source]

Why Do Mortgage Markets Matter?

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 4 2000
Geoffrey Meen
1999 saw the return of large scale mortgage equity - ie mortgage borrowing to finance consumption rather than house purchase - for the first time for a decade. Recent developments of the OEF macroeconometric model of the UK economy have focused on the determination of mortgage lending, looking in particular at the impact of downpayment constraints - ie the deposit borrowers have to put down when they buy a house. In this article, Geoffrey Meen uses this model to analyse the effects of mortgages on: (i) the cycle in the UK housing market at a national level; (ii) regional house price differentials; and (iii) aggregate savings and consumer behaviour. [source]

How Big Was the Effect of Budget Consolidation on the Australian Economy in the 1990s?

THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2006
Lei Lei Song
This article evaluates the effects of budget consolidation on the Australian economy in the 1990s. As the economy recovered from the 1991,92 recession, the need to improve the fiscal balance to lift national saving became the dominant influence on fiscal policy. The article argues that spending cuts by the Australian federal government announced in 1996 had immediate effects on financial markets, with reduced long-term interest rates of about 50 basis points in 1996,97. Using a modified version of the Treasury macroeconometric model of the Australian economy (TRYM), the article simulates the net macroeconomic effects of the expenditure cuts, fiscal consolidation and lower long-term interest rates. The article finds that the program of budget consolidation had a sizeable short- and medium-term impact on the economy, raising Gross Domestic Product by up to three-quarters of a percentage point and reducing unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over the next two to three years. [source]