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Macro Variables (macro + variable)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting	75%

Selected Abstracts

The Effect of Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade Balance: New Evidence from Malaysia and Thailand

ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL, Issue 3 2001
Ahmad Zubaidi BaharumshahArticle first published online: 18 DEC 200
This paper attempts to identify the major economic factors that influence the bilateral trade balances of Malaysia and Thailand with the US and Japan. To this end, an unrestricted VAR model was estimated using quarterly frequency data from 1980: I to 1996: IV. The Johansen results indicate a stable long-run relation between trade and three macro variables: exchange rate, domestic income and foreign income. The main findings of this paper are: (i) the real effective exchange rate is an important variable in the trade balance equation and devaluation improves the trade balances of both economies in the long-run; (ii) the other important variables that determine trade balance include domestic and foreign incomes; (iii) the results indicate no J-curve effect and causal run from exchange rate to trade balance, (iv) the real effects of devaluation are distributed over a period of eight to nine quarters. [source]

Stress Testing of Financial Industries: A Simple New Approach to Joint Stress Testing of Korean Banking, Securities, and Non-Life Insurance Industries,

ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL STUDIES, Issue 4 2009
Kook-Hyun Chang
Abstract This paper proposes a simple joint stress testing model useful in studying the effects of specific stress scenarios on a financial sector. In doing so, we adopt the principal component analysis (PCA) as a main device to interpret various financial information contained in figures and numbers on a financial company. We repeat the principal component analysis across different levels from individual company to a financial industry, and eventually to a financial sector as a whole to derive a financial sector risk index. We then link the sector risk index with stress macro variables, which constitute a much simpler task than devising individual models for each financial components. Once a relationship is established, a joint stress test is conducted by repeating PCA conversely. As a sample of stress scenario in the paper, we use the case of the 2003 credit card distress. We find that securities industry is more sensitive to market stresses than two other industries-bank and insurance-and that financial institutions in such a stress-sensitive industry are, consequently, more affected by the stresses than those in other industries. Despite the simplicity of the proposed model, this model is expected to provide substantial information, particularly for financial supervisors without having to build a complicated joint stress testing model. [source]

Labour Market Policies and Long-term Unemployment in a Flow Model of the Australian Labour Market

AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 2 2003
Ric D. Herbert
This paper develops a general equilibrium job matching model, which is used to assess the impact of active labour market policies, reductions in unemployment benefits and reductions in worker bargaining power on long-term unemployment and other key macro variables. The model is calibrated using Australian data. Simulation experiments are conducted through impulse response analysis. The simulations suggest that active labour market programs (ALMPs) targeted at the long-term unemployed have a small net impact and produce adverse spillover effects on short-term unemployment. Reducing the level of unemployment benefits relative to wages and worker bargaining power have more substantial effects on total and long-term unemployment and none of the spillover effects of ALMPs. [source]

Integrating Decision Making and Mental Health Interventions Research: Research Directions

CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY: SCIENCE AND PRACTICE, Issue 1 2006
Celia E. Wills
The importance of incorporating patient and provider decision-making processes is in the forefront of the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) agenda for improving mental health interventions and services. Key concepts in patient decision making are highlighted within a simplified model of patient decision making that links patient-level/"micro" variables to services-level/"macro" variables via the decision-making process that is a target for interventions. The prospective agenda for incorporating decision-making concepts in mental health research includes (a) improved measures for characterizing decision-making processes that are matched to study populations, complexity, and types of decision making; (b) testing decision aids in effectiveness research for diverse populations and clinical settings; and (c) improving the understanding and incorporation of preference concepts in enhanced intervention designs. [source]