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Long-term Evolution (long-term + evolution)
Selected AbstractsLong-term evolution of disease behavior of Crohn's diseaseINFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASES, Issue 4 2002Jacques Cosnes Abstract Background The Vienna classification of Crohn's disease (CD) distinguishes three patient subgroups according to disease behavior: stricturing, penetrating, and inflammatory. Our aim was to assess the long-term evolution of the disease behavior of CD and to determine the predictive factors and prognostic implications of this evolution. Methods Occurrence and predictive factors of a stricturing and/or a penetrating complication were searched for in 2,002 patients with CD studied retrospectively. In addition, the 1995,2000 disease course was assessed prospectively in a cohort of 646 patients with disease duration >5 years, classified according to their previous disease behavior. Results 1,199 patients (60%) developed a stricturing (n = 254) or a penetrating (n = 945) complication. Twenty-year actuarial rates of inflammatory, stricturing, and penetrating disease were 12, 18, and 70%, respectively. The initial location of lesions was the main determinant of the time and type of the complication. In the cohort study, year-by-year activity and therapeutic requirements did not show significant sustained differences between behavioral subgroups. Conclusion Most patients with CD will eventually one day develop a stricturing or a perforating complication. Initial location determines the type of the complication. Classification of patients into a behavioral group from previous history has no impact upon activity during the following years. [source] Long-term evolution of the acute tubular necrosis (ATN) induced by glycerol: role of myofibroblasts and macrophagesINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PATHOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Telma J. Soares Summary. Late structural changes such as interstitial fibrosis in the renal cortex and tubular atrophy have been detected after severe acute tubular necrosis (ATN). The aim of this study was to investigate the expression of fibronectin, ,-smooth muscle actin and macrophages during the evolution of the ATN induced by glycerol and their relationship with the late structural changes observed in the kidneys of these animals. Forty-nine male Wistar rats were injected with a 50% glycerol solution, 8 mL/kg (4 mL/kg applied i.m. to each hind leg) and 14 with 0.15 m NaCl solution. Before glycerol injection on day 1, water was removed for 17 h. Blood and urine samples were collected 1 day after the injection to quantify sodium and creatinine. The animals were killed 5, 30 and 60 days after the injections and the kidneys removed for histological and immunohistochemical studies. The results of the histological and immunohistochemical studies were scored according to the extent of lesion or staining in the cortical tubulointerstitium, respectively. The percentage of tubulointerstitial lesions was determined by morphometry. Glycerol-injected rats presented a transitory increase in plasma creatinine levels and in fractional sodium excretion. The immunohistochemical studies showed increased fibronectin, ,-smooth muscle actin (,-SM-actin), TGF-, and ED-1 (macrophages) staining in the renal cortex from rats killed 5, 30 and 60 days after glycerol injection (P < 0.05) compared to control. The animals killed on day 30 and 60 also presented chronic lesions (fibrosis, tubular dilatation and atrophy) in the renal cortex, despite the recovery of renal function. Macrophages, TGF-, and myofibroblasts may have contributed to the development of renal fibrosis in these rats. [source] Pathological gambling: an increasing public health problemACTA PSYCHIATRICA SCANDINAVICA, Issue 4 2001Article first published online: 7 JUL 200 Gambling has always existed, but only recently has it taken on the endlessly variable and accessible forms we know today. Gambling takes place when something valuable , usually money , is staked on the outcome of an event that is entirely unpredictable. It was only two decades ago that pathological gambling was formally recognized as a mental disorder, when it was included in the DSM-III in 1980. For most people, gambling is a relaxing activity with no negative consequences. For others, however, gambling becomes excessive. Pathological gambling is a disorder that manifests itself through the irrepressible urge to wager money. This disorder ultimately dominates the gambler's life, and has a multitude of negative consequences for both the gambler and the people they interact with, i.e. friends, family members, employers. In many ways, gambling might seem a harmless activity. In fact, it is not the act of gambling itself that is harmful, but the vicious cycle that can begin when a gambler wagers money they cannot afford to lose, and then continues to gamble in order to recuperate their losses. The gambler's ,tragic flaw' of logic lies in their failure to understand that gambling is governed solely by random, chance events. Gamblers fail to recognize this and continue to gamble, attempting to control outcomes by concocting strategies to ,beat the game'. Most, if not all, gamblers try in some way to predict the outcome of a game when they are gambling. A detailed analysis of gamblers' selfverbalizations reveals that most of them behave as though the outcome of the game relied on their personal ,skills'. From the gambler's perspective, skill can influence chance , but in reality, the random nature of chance events is the only determinant of the outcome of the game. The gambler, however, either ignores or simply denies this fundamental rule (1). Experts agree that the social costs of pathological gambling are enormous. Changes in gaming legislation have led to a substantial expansion of gambling opportunities in most industrialized countries around the world, mainly in Europe, America and Australia. Figures for the United States' leisure economy in 1996 show gross gambling revenues of $47.6 billion, which was greater than the combined revenue of $40.8 billion from film box offices, recorded music, cruise ships, spectator sports and live entertainment (2). Several factors appear to be motivating this growth: the desire of governments to identify new sources of revenue without invoking new or higher taxes; tourism entrepreneurs developing new destinations for entertainment and leisure; and the rise of new technologies and forms of gambling (3). As a consequence, prevalence studies have shown increased gambling rates among adults. It is currently estimated that 1,2% of the adult population gambles excessively (4, 5). Given that the prevalence of gambling is related to the accessibility of gambling activities, and that new forms of gambling are constantly being legalized throughout most western countries, this figure is expected to rise. Consequently, physicians and mental health professionals will need to know more about the diagnosis and treatment of pathological gamblers. This disorder may be under-diagnosed because, clinically, pathological gamblers usually seek help for the problems associated with gambling such as depression, anxiety or substance abuse, rather than for the excessive gambling itself. This issue of Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica includes the first national survey of problem gambling completed in Sweden, conducted by Volberg et al. (6). This paper is based on a large sample (N=9917) with an impressively high response rate (89%). Two instruments were used to assess gambling activities: the South Oaks Gambling Screen-Revised (SOGS-R) and an instrument derived from the DSM-IV criteria for pathological gambling. Current (1 year) and lifetime prevalence rates were collected. Results show that 0.6% of the respondents were classified as probable pathological gamblers, and 1.4% as problem gamblers. These data reveal that the prevalence of pathological gamblers in Sweden is significantly less than what has been observed in many western countries. The authors have pooled the rates of problem (1.4%) and probable pathological gamblers (0.6%), to provide a total of 2.0% for the current prevalence. This 2% should be interpreted with caution, however, as we do not have information on the long-term evolution of these subgroups of gamblers; for example, we do not know how many of each subgroup will become pathological gamblers, and how many will decrease their gambling or stop gambling altogether. Until this information is known, it would be preferable to keep in mind that only 0.6% of the Swedish population has been identified as pathological gamblers. In addition, recent studies show that the SOGS-R may be producing inflated estimates of pathological gambling (7). Thus, future research in this area might benefit from the use of an instrument based on DSM criteria for pathological gambling, rather than the SOGS-R only. Finally, the authors suggest in their discussion that the lower rate of pathological gamblers obtained in Sweden compared to many other jurisdictions may be explained by the greater availability of games based on chance rather than games based on skill or a mix of skill and luck. Before accepting this interpretation, researchers will need to demonstrate that the outcomes of all games are determined by other factor than chance and randomness. Many studies have shown that the notion of randomness is the only determinant of gambling (1). Inferring that skill is an important issue in gambling may be misleading. While these are important issues to consider, the Volberg et al. survey nevertheless provides crucial information about gambling in a Scandinavian country. Gambling will be an important issue over the next few years in Sweden, and the publication of the Volberg et al. study is a landmark for the Swedish community (scientists, industry, policy makers, etc.). This paper should stimulate interesting discussions and inspire new, much-needed scientific investigations of pathological gambling. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica Guido Bondolfi and Robert Ladouceur Invited Guest Editors References 1.,LadouceurR & WalkerM. The cognitive approach to understanding and treating pathological gambling. In: BellackAS, HersenM, eds. Comprehensive clinical psychology. New York: Pergamon, 1998:588 , 601. 2.,ChristiansenEM. Gambling and the American economy. In: FreyJH, ed. Gambling: socioeconomic impacts and public policy. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage, 1998:556:36 , 52. 3.,KornDA & ShafferHJ. Gambling and the health of the public: adopting a public health perspective. J Gambling Stud2000;15:289 , 365. 4.,VolbergRA. Problem gambling in the United States. J Gambling Stud1996;12:111 , 128. 5.,BondolfiG, OsiekC, FerreroF. Prevalence estimates of pathological gambling in Switzerland. Acta Psychiatr Scand2000;101:473 , 475. 6.,VolbergRA, AbbottMW, RönnbergS, MunckIM. Prev-alence and risks of pathological gambling in Sweden. Acta Psychiatr Scand2001;104:250 , 256. 7.,LadouceurR, BouchardC, RhéaumeNet al. Is the SOGS an accurate measure of pathological gambling among children, adolescents and adults?J Gambling Stud2000;16:1 , 24. [source] Long-term landscape evolution: linking tectonics and surface processesEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 3 2007Paul Bishop Abstract Research in landscape evolution over millions to tens of millions of years slowed considerably in the mid-20th century, when Davisian and other approaches to geomorphology were replaced by functional, morphometric and ultimately process-based approaches. Hack's scheme of dynamic equilibrium in landscape evolution was perhaps the major theoretical contribution to long-term landscape evolution between the 1950s and about 1990, but it essentially ,looked back' to Davis for its springboard to a viewpoint contrary to that of Davis, as did less widely known schemes, such as Crickmay's hypothesis of unequal activity. Since about 1990, the field of long-term landscape evolution has blossomed again, stimulated by the plate tectonics revolution and its re-forging of the link between tectonics and topography, and by the development of numerical models that explore the links between tectonic processes and surface processes. This numerical modelling of landscape evolution has been built around formulation of bedrock river processes and slope processes, and has mostly focused on high-elevation passive continental margins and convergent zones; these models now routinely include flexural and denudational isostasy. Major breakthroughs in analytical and geochronological techniques have been of profound relevance to all of the above. Low-temperature thermochronology, and in particular apatite fission track analysis and (U,Th)/He analysis in apatite, have enabled rates of rock uplift and denudational exhumation from relatively shallow crustal depths (up to about 4 km) to be determined directly from, in effect, rock hand specimens. In a few situations, (U,Th)/He analysis has been used to determine the antiquity of major, long-wavelength topography. Cosmogenic isotope analysis has enabled the determination of the ,ages' of bedrock and sedimentary surfaces, and/or the rates of denudation of these surfaces. These latter advances represent in some ways a ,holy grail' in geomorphology in that they enable determination of ,dates and rates' of geomorphological processes directly from rock surfaces. The increasing availability of analytical techniques such as cosmogenic isotope analysis should mean that much larger data sets become possible and lead to more sophisticated analyses, such as probability density functions (PDFs) of cosmogenic ages and even of cosmogenic isotope concentrations (CICs). PDFs of isotope concentrations must be a function of catchment area geomorphology (including tectonics) and it is at least theoretically possible to infer aspects of source area geomorphology and geomorphological processes from PDFs of CICs in sediments (,detrital CICs'). Thus it may be possible to use PDFs of detrital CICs in basin sediments as a tool to infer aspects of the sediments' source area geomorphology and tectonics, complementing the standard sedimentological textural and compositional approaches to such issues. One of the most stimulating of recent conceptual advances has followed the considerations of the relationships between tectonics, climate and surface processes and especially the recognition of the importance of denudational isostasy in driving rock uplift (i.e. in driving tectonics and crustal processes). Attention has been focused very directly on surface processes and on the ways in which they may ,drive' rock uplift and thus even influence sub-surface crustal conditions, such as pressure and temperature. Consequently, the broader geoscience communities are looking to geomorphologists to provide more detailed information on rates and processes of bedrock channel incision, as well as on catchment responses to such bedrock channel processes. More sophisticated numerical models of processes in bedrock channels and on their flanking hillslopes are required. In current numerical models of long-term evolution of hillslopes and interfluves, for example, the simple dependency on slope of both the fluvial and hillslope components of these models means that a Davisian-type of landscape evolution characterized by slope lowering is inevitably ,confirmed' by the models. In numerical modelling, the next advances will require better parameterized algorithms for hillslope processes, and more sophisticated formulations of bedrock channel incision processes, incorporating, for example, the effects of sediment shielding of the bed. Such increasing sophistication must be matched by careful assessment and testing of model outputs using pre-established criteria and tests. Confirmation by these more sophisticated Davisian-type numerical models of slope lowering under conditions of tectonic stability (no active rock uplift), and of constant slope angle and steady-state landscape under conditions of ongoing rock uplift, will indicate that the Davis and Hack models are not mutually exclusive. A Hack-type model (or a variant of it, incorporating slope adjustment to rock strength rather than to regolith strength) will apply to active settings where there is sufficient stream power and/or sediment flux for channels to incise at the rate of rock uplift. Post-orogenic settings of decreased (or zero) active rock uplift would be characterized by a Davisian scheme of declining slope angles and non-steady-state (or transient) landscapes. Such post-orogenic landscapes deserve much more attention than they have received of late, not least because the intriguing questions they pose about the preservation of ancient landscapes were hinted at in passing in the 1960s and have recently re-surfaced. As we begin to ask again some of the grand questions that lay at the heart of geomorphology in its earliest days, large-scale geomorphology is on the threshold of another ,golden' era to match that of the first half of the 20th century, when cyclical approaches underpinned virtually all geomorphological work. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Long-term evolution of disease behavior of Crohn's diseaseINFLAMMATORY BOWEL DISEASES, Issue 4 2002Jacques Cosnes Abstract Background The Vienna classification of Crohn's disease (CD) distinguishes three patient subgroups according to disease behavior: stricturing, penetrating, and inflammatory. Our aim was to assess the long-term evolution of the disease behavior of CD and to determine the predictive factors and prognostic implications of this evolution. Methods Occurrence and predictive factors of a stricturing and/or a penetrating complication were searched for in 2,002 patients with CD studied retrospectively. In addition, the 1995,2000 disease course was assessed prospectively in a cohort of 646 patients with disease duration >5 years, classified according to their previous disease behavior. Results 1,199 patients (60%) developed a stricturing (n = 254) or a penetrating (n = 945) complication. Twenty-year actuarial rates of inflammatory, stricturing, and penetrating disease were 12, 18, and 70%, respectively. The initial location of lesions was the main determinant of the time and type of the complication. In the cohort study, year-by-year activity and therapeutic requirements did not show significant sustained differences between behavioral subgroups. Conclusion Most patients with CD will eventually one day develop a stricturing or a perforating complication. Initial location determines the type of the complication. Classification of patients into a behavioral group from previous history has no impact upon activity during the following years. [source] Climate variability and change in the Greater Alpine Region over the last two centuries based on multi-variable analysisINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2009Michele Brunetti Abstract An extensive analysis of the HISTALP database is presented with the aim of giving a comprehensive picture of secular climate variability and change in the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, 4,19 E, 43,49 N). The HISTALP database encompasses 242 sites and concerns temperature, pressure, precipitation, cloudiness, sunshine duration, vapour pressure and relative humidity. The analyses are based on four regional mean records representing different GAR low-level areas and on an additional mean record representing high-level locations. The first goal of the paper is to give an overview of the seasonal and annual records for the different variables, aiming to highlight both variability on decadal time scale and long-term evolution. Then it focuses on trend and correlation analysis. Trends are presented both for the period of common data availability for all regional average series and for moving windows that permit studying the trends over a wide range of timescales. Correlations among the different variables are presented both for the regional average series and for their high-pass-filtered versions. The analyses, beside highlighting a warming that is about twice as large as the global trend, also show that the different variables have responded in different ways to this warming and that the mutual interactions linking the different variables are often present only at specific temporal scales and only in parts of the GAR and in defined seasons. In spite of this complex behaviour, which may also be due to some residual inhomogeneities still affecting the data, the analyses give evidence that the HISTALP database has an excellent internal consistency and show that the availability of a multi-variable database turns out to be very useful in order to evaluate the reliability of the reconstruction of each variable and to better understand the behaviour and the mutual interactions of the different variables. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Substellar companions and isolated planetary-mass objects from protostellar disc fragmentationMONTHLY NOTICES OF THE ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY, Issue 3 2003W. K. M. Rice ABSTRACT Self-gravitating protostellar discs are unstable to fragmentation if the gas can cool on a time-scale that is short compared with the orbital period. We use a combination of hydrodynamic simulations and N -body orbit integrations to study the long-term evolution of a fragmenting disc with an initial mass ratio to the star of Mdisc/M*= 0.1. For a disc that is initially unstable across a range of radii, a combination of collapse and subsequent accretion yields substellar objects with a spectrum of masses extending (for a Solar-mass star) up to ,0.01 M,. Subsequent gravitational evolution ejects most of the lower mass objects within a few million years, leaving a small number of very massive planets or brown dwarfs in eccentric orbits at moderately small radii. Based on these results, systems such as HD 168443 , in which the companions are close to or beyond the deuterium burning limit , appear to be the best candidates to have formed via gravitational instability. If massive substellar companions originate from disc fragmentation, while lower-mass planetary companions originate from core accretion, the metallicity distribution of stars which host massive substellar companions at radii of ,1 au should differ from that of stars with lower mass planetary companions. [source] Fate of baby radio galaxies: Dead or alive?ASTRONOMISCHE NACHRICHTEN, Issue 2-3 2009N. Kawakatu Abstract In order to reveal the long-term evolution of relativistic jets in active galactic nuclei (AGNs), we examine the dynamical evolution of variously-sized radio galaxies [i.e., compact symmetric objects (CSOs), medium-size symmetric objects (MSOs), Fanaroff-Riley type II radio galaxies (FRIIs)]. By comparing the observed relation between the hot spot size and the linear size of radio source with a coevolution model of hot spot and cocoon, we find that the advance speed of hot spots and lobes inevitably show the deceleration phase (CSO-MSO phase) and the acceleration phase (MSO-FRII phase). The deceleration is caused by the growth of the cross-sectional area of the cocoon head. Moreover, by comparing the hot spot speed with the sound speed of the ambient medium, we predict that only CSOs whose initial advance speed is higher than 0.3,0.5 c can evolve into FRIIs (© 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) [source] Miocene to Recent exhumation of the central Himalaya determined from combined detrital zircon fission-track and U/Pb analysis of Siwalik sediments, western NepalBASIN RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Matthias Bernet ABSTRACT Fission-track (FT) analysis of detrital zircon from synorogenic sediment is a well-established tool to examine the cooling and exhumation history of convergent mountain belts, but has so far not been used to determine the long-term evolution of the central Himalaya. This study presents FT analysis of detrital zircon from 22 sandstone and modern sediment samples that were collected along three stratigraphic sections within the Miocene to Pliocene Siwalik Group, and from modern rivers, in western and central Nepal. The results provide evidence for widespread cooling in the Nepalese Himalaya at about 16.0±1.4 Ma, and continuous exhumation at a rate of about 1.4±0.2 km Myr,1 thereafter. The ,16 Ma cooling is likely related to a combination of tectonic and erosional activity, including movement on the Main Central thrust and Southern Tibetan Detachment system, as well as emplacement of the Ramgarh thrust on Lesser Himalayan sedimentary and meta-sedimentary units. The continuous exhumation signal following the ,16 Ma cooling event is seen in connection with ongoing tectonic uplift, river incision and erosion of lower Lesser Himalayan rocks exposed below the MCT and Higher Himalayan rocks in the hanging wall of the MCT, controlled by orographic precipitation and crustal extrusion. Provenance analysis, to distinguish between Higher Himalayan and Lesser Himalayan zircon sources, is based on double dating of individual zircons with the FT and U/Pb methods. Zircons with pre-Himalayan FT cooling ages may be derived from either nonmetamorphic parts of the Tethyan sedimentary succession or Higher Himalayan protolith that formerly covered the Dadeldhura and Ramgarh thrust sheets, but that have been removed by erosion. Both the Higher and Lesser Himalaya appear to be sources for the zircons that record either ,16 Ma cooling or the continuous exhumation afterwards. [source] Inevitable evolution: back to The Origin and beyond the 20th Century paradigm of contingent evolution by historical natural selectionBIOLOGICAL REVIEWS, Issue 3 2008Lars Witting Abstract Since neo-Darwinism arose from the work of Darwin and Mendel evolution by natural selection has been seen as contingent and historical being defined by an a posteriori selection process with no a priori laws that explain why evolution on Earth has taken the direction of the major evolutionary trends and transitions instead of any other direction. Recently, however, major life-history trends and transitions have been explained as inevitable because of a deterministic selection that unfolds from the energetic state of the organism and the density-dependent competitive interactions that arise from self-replication in limited environments. I describe differences and similarities between the historical and deterministic selection processes, illustrate concepts using life-history models on large body masses and limited reproductive rates, review life-history evolution with a wider focus on major evolutionary transitions, and propose that biotic evolution is driven by a universal natural selection where the long-term evolution of fitness-related traits is determined mainly by deterministic selection, while contingency is important predominately for neutral traits. Given suitable environmental conditions, it is shown that selection by energetic state and density-dependent competitive interactions unfolds to higher level selection for life-history transitions from simple asexually reproducing self-replicators to large bodied organisms with senescence and sexual reproduction between males and females, and in some cases, to the fully evolved eusocial colony with thousands of offspring workers. This defines an evolutionary arrow of time for open thermodynamic systems with a constant inflow of energy, predicting similar routes for long-term evolution on similar planets. [source] | ||||||||||||||||