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Long-run Effects (long-run + effects)
Selected AbstractsThe Effect of Managerial Ownership on the Short- and Long-run Response to Cash DistributionsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2003Keith M. Howe G32/G35 Abstract We examine both the short-run and long-run responses to the following corporate cash flow transactions: dividend increases and decreases, dividend initiations, and tender offer repurchases. Our focus is the short-run and long-run effects of managerial ownership. We hypothesize that ownership plays an important role in explaining the announcement effects for these events, owing to signaling effects and the reduction of agency problems. Our short-run results accord well with the earlier work on announcement effects for these events and show that firms with high insider ownership exhibit higher excess returns. Our long-term results indicate a drift over a three-year period following the announcement, with the excess returns for the high insider-ownership group becoming more pronounced. [source] Towards the Spatial Patterns of Sectoral Adjustments to Trade Liberalisation: The Case of NAFTA in MexicoGROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 4 2007BENJAMIN FABER ABSTRACT A recent string of "new economic geography" (NEG) models has set focus on the impacts of trade liberalisation on the intra-national distribution of economic activity. What the existing contributions have in common is a basic two-sector assumption (agriculture/manufacturing) and a resulting focus on the question of whether liberalisation leads to a greater concentration of aggregate manufacturing activity. Reconsidering these models from a multi-sectoral perspective, the aim is to allow for sectoral differences in the spatial adjustments to liberalisation. This introduces a conceptual nexus between comparative advantage (CA)-type sectoral recomposition effects of trade and NEG-type spatial adjustments. In the analysis of Mexican manufacturing location 1993,2003, incipient empirical evidence is found in favour of the hypothesis that sectors characterised by a revealed comparative advantage and/or cross-border intermediate supplies grow faster in regions with good foreign market access, whereas import competing ones gain in relative terms in regions with higher "natural protection" from poor market access. The relevancy of the proposed NEG/CA framework concerns both efficiency and equity objectives of trade adjustment policies, and opens a new perspective on the long-run effects of trade on spatial inequality. [source] The impacts of trade liberalization on employment and wages in Tunisian industriesJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 4 2005Ilham Haouas This paper investigates short and long-run effects of trade liberalization on employment and wages. Employment and wage equations are estimated using data (1971,96) for importable and exportable industrial sectors in Tunisia. Causality tests show that causality is unidirectional. Wages strongly causes employment. There is significant difference in the direction of effects in the short and long-run. Empirical results only support the short-run theoretical predictions for the exportable sectors. A possible reason for the divergence of theory and practice is that the theoretical model is premised on the basis of a fixed supply of labour. Employment at exportable sectors could therefore only rise if employment at importable fell. However, as we have seen, the supply of labour increased dramatically in Tunisia as women entered the labour market. This allowed employment at importable sectors to be maintained as the exportable sector expanded. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates in Western Europe?JOURNAL OF MARRIAGE AND FAMILY, Issue 3 2009Thorsten Kneip The increase in European divorce rates over the past decades was accompanied by several changes in divorce laws. Yet for European countries, research on the effects of divorce law on the divorce rate is scarce. Most of the existing studies are based on data from North America and provide numerous, but inconsistent, results. We use fixed-effects regression models to examine the impact of the introduction of unilateral divorce on the divorce rate in Western European countries. We find that de facto unilateral divorce practices led to a sustainable increase in the divorce rate, whereas legal rights to unilaterally divorce had no long-run effects. [source] ARE LONG-RUN PRICE STABILITY AND SHORT-RUN OUTPUT STABILIZATION ALL THAT MONETARY POLICY CAN AIM FOR?METROECONOMICA, Issue 2 2007Giuseppe Fontana ABSTRACT A central tenet of the so-called new consensus view in macroeconomics is that there is no long-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. The main policy implication of this principle is that all monetary policy can aim for is (modest) short-run output stabilization and long-run price stability, i.e. monetary policy is neutral with respect to output and employment in the long run. However, research on the different sources of path dependency in the economy suggests that persistent but nevertheless transitory changes in aggregate demand may have a permanent effect on output and employment. If this is the case, then, the way monetary policy is run does have long-run effects on real variables. This paper provides an overview of this research and explores conceptually how monetary policy should be implemented once these long-run effects are acknowledged. [source] Macroeconomic Control in the Transforming Chinese Economy: An Analysis of the Long-Run EffectPACIFIC ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 1 2001Michael K. Y. Fung This paper analyzes the issue of macroeconomic control in the Chinese economy where there is a dual structure (consisting of a state sector and a non-state sector) and the financial sector is still under tight control by the government. Given the dual structure and financial repression, when inflation is a severe problem, the authors investigate whether it is possible for the government to bring inflation under control without hampering long-term economic growth performance. The investigation is conducted within the context of an endogenous growth model that incorporates the two major institutional features of the transforming Chinese economy. The paper evaluates the long-run effects of changes in government monetary and fiscal policies on the major macroeconomic aggregates. The analysis suggests that increasing in the interest rate on government bonds will reduce inflation without affecting the growth rate of output; while increasing the nominal interest rate on bank deposits will exert a stagflationary effect on the economy: raising the inflation rate but reducing the growth rate of output. [source] A Dynamic Incentive-Based Argument for Conditional Transfers,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 2008DILIP MOOKHERJEE We compare the long-run effects of replacing unconditional transfers to the poor by transfers conditional on the education of children. Unlike Mirrlees' income taxation model, the distribution of skill evolves endogenously. Human capital accumulation follows the Freeman,Ljungqvist,Mookherjee,Ray OLG model with missing capital markets and dynastic bequest motives. Conditional transfers (funded by taxes on earnings of the skilled) are shown to induce higher long-run output per capita and (both utilitarian and Rawlsian) welfare, owing to their superior effect on skill accumulation incentives. The result is established both with two skill levels, and a continuum of occupations. [source] Consumption and Wealth in AustraliaTHE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 244 2003Alvin Tan This paper examines the relationship between consumption and wealth in Australia. We find a steady-state relationship between non-durables consumption, labour income and aggregate household wealth for the period 1988,1999. We also find that changes in both non-financial and financial assets have significant but different short-run and long-run effects in dynamic consumption models. Finally, we place our results within the broader empirical literature and examine whether they are consistent with standard theories of consumption. [source] INFRASTRUCTURE, LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CAUSALITY TESTS FOR COINTEGRATED PANELSTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 5 2008DAVID CANNING We investigate the consequences of various types of infrastructure provision in a panel of countries from 1950 to 1992. We develop new tests which enable us to isolate the sign and direction of long-run effects in a manner that is robust to the presence of unknown heterogeneous short-run causal relationships. We show that while infrastructure does tend to cause long-run economic growth, there is substantial variation across countries. We also provide evidence that each infrastructure type is provided at close to the growth-maximizing level on average globally, but is under-supplied in some countries and over-supplied in others. [source] Output Taxation, Human Capital and GrowthTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 2 2000Rosa Capolupo In this paper we investigate the long-run effects of government spending and taxation in an endogenous growth setting. The model is a variant of Barro's model (,Government Expenditure in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth', Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 98, 1990, pp. S103,S125) and Lucas's model (,On the Mechanics of Economic Development', Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 22, 1988, pp. 3,42) in which human capital accumulation is driven by government spending on public education. To balance the budget the government levies a tax on output in two alternative specifications of the human capital accumulation equation. The results consolidate some recent findings that taxation, when it is used for productive purposes, may lead to faster growth. Growth rates increase with taxes up to a level around 60,70 per cent. [source] ADDICTIVE DRUG USE MANAGEMENT POLICIES IN A LONG-RUN ECONOMIC MODEL,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 2 2009HARRY CLARKE A model of illicit, addictive drug use is proposed when users have foresight. Impacts of drug use penalties, penalties on drug use-related crime, support for drug user rehabilitation as well as the effects of health-related, harm-minimisation policies are analysed. In the short run, government policies impact only on the drug use intensities of existing addicted and casual users. Longer term policy-induced user-cost changes impact on new user and addict numbers through their effect on recruitment into addiction and quit dynamics. Effects of policies on user numbers, usage intensities and impacts on long-run social costs are analysed over this long-term horizon. The model provides a setting for analysing the long-run effects of illicit drug management policies on the social costs of illicit drug use and allows assessment of drug use abstinence and harm minimisation policy tradeoffs. [source] THE J CURVE: CHINA VERSUS HER TRADING PARTNERSBULLETIN OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, Issue 4 2006Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee F31 ABSTRACT The short-run effects of currency depreciation are said to be different from its long-run effects. In the short run, the trade balance deteriorates and improvement comes after some time; hence, the J-curve phenomenon. Previous studies that tested the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes in China employed aggregate trade data and provided mixed results. Indeed, most of them concluded that real depreciation has no long-run impact on the Chinese trade balance. In this paper, we disaggregate the data by country and using recent advances in time series modelling estimate a trade balance model between China and her 13 major trading partners. We show that real depreciation of the Chinese currency has a favourable impact on her trade balance with a few partners, especially the USA. Not much support is found for the J-curve hypothesis. [source] Assessing the Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Bilateral Agricultural TradeCANADIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2009Jungho Baek This paper uses an autoregressive distributed lag approach to cointegration to examine the short- and long-run effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral trade of agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. Results show that, in the long run, while U.S. agricultural exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates and foreign income, U.S. agricultural imports are mostly responsive to the U.S. domestic income. In the short run, on the other hand, both the bilateral exchange rates and income in the United States and its trading partners are found to have significant impacts on U.S. agricultural exports and imports. Dans le présent article, nous avons utilisé un modèle autorégressif à retards échelonnés (autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration) pour examiner les effets à court et à long terme des variations de taux de change sur le commerce bilatéral des produits agricoles entre les États-Unis et ses dix principaux partenaires commerciaux. Les résultats ont montré que, à long terme, bien que les exportations agricoles des États-Unis soient très sensibles aux taux de change bilatéraux et au revenu étranger, les importations agricoles des États-Unis sont principalement sensibles au revenu intérieur des États-Unis. À court terme, par contre, les taux de change bilatéraux et le revenu des États-Unis et de ses partenaires commerciaux ont des répercussions considérables sur les exportations et les importations agricoles des États-Unis. [source] | |||||||||||||