Logistic-regression Analysis (logistic-regression + analysis)

Distribution by Scientific Domains


Selected Abstracts


Epidemiologic Analysis of Factors Associated with Local Disappearances of Native Ranid Frogs in Arizona

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2008
CARMEL L. WITTE
análisis de factores de riesgo; declinación de anfibios; declinación de ranas; epidemiología de vida silvestre; métodos de control de casos Abstract:,We examined factors that may independently or synergistically contribute to amphibian population declines. We used epidemiologic case,control methodology to sample and analyze a large database developed and maintained by the Arizona Game and Fish Department that describes historical and currently known ranid frog localities in Arizona, U.S.A. Sites with historical documentation of target ranid species (n= 324) were evaluated to identify locations where frogs had disappeared during the study period (case sites) and locations where frog populations persisted (control sites). Between 1986 and 2003, 117 (36%) of the 324 sites became case sites, of which 105 were used in the analyses. An equal number of control sites were sampled to control for the effects of time. Risk factors, or predictor variables, were defined from environmental data summarized during site surveys and geographic information system data layers. We evaluated risk factors with univariate and multifactorial logistic-regression analyses to derive odds ratios (OR). Odds for local population disappearance were significantly related to 4 factors in the multifactorial model. Disappearance of frog populations increased with increasing elevation (OR = 2.7 for every 500 m, p < 0.01). Sites where disappearances occurred were 4.3 times more likely to have other nearby sites that also experienced disappearances (OR = 4.3, p < 0.01), whereas the odds of disappearance were 6.7 times less (OR = 0.15, p < 0.01) when there was a source population nearby. Sites with disappearances were 2.6 times more likely to have introduced crayfish than were control sites (OR = 2.6, p= 0.04). The identification of factors associated with frog disappearances increases understanding of declines occurring in natural populations and aids in conservation efforts to reestablish and protect native ranids by identifying and prioritizing implicated threats. Resumen:,Examinamos los factores que pueden contribuir independiente o sinérgicamente a la declinación de poblaciones de anfibios. Utilizamos una metodología epidemiológica de control de casos para muestrear y analizar una base de datos desarrollada y mantenida por el Departamento de Caza y Pesca de Arizona que describe las localidades históricas y actuales de ranas en Arizona, E. U. A. Los sitios con documentación histórica de las especies de ránidos (n= 324) fueron evaluados para identificar localidades donde las ranas desaparecieron durante el período de estudio (sitios caso) y localidades donde las poblaciones de ranas persistieron (sitios control). Entre 1986 y 2003, 36% (117) de los 324 sitios se volvieron sitios caso, de los cuales 105 fueron utilizados en los análisis. El mismo número de sitios control fueron muestreados para controlar los efectos del tiempo. Los factores de riesgo, o variables predictivas, fueron definidos a partir de datos ambientales obtenidos de los muestreos en los sitios y de capas de datos de un sistema información geográfica. Evaluamos los factores de riesgo con análisis de regresión logística univariada y multivariada para derivar proporciones de probabilidades (PP). Las probabilidad para la desaparición de una población local estuvo relacionada significativamente con 4 factores en el modelo multifactorial. La desaparición de poblaciones de ranas incrementó con la elevación (PP = 2.7 por cada 500 m, p < 0.01). Los sitios donde ocurrieron las desapariciones fueron 4.3 veces más propensos a estar cerca de otros sitios donde ocurrieron desapariciones (PP = 4.3, p < 0.01), mientras que la probabilidad de desaparición fue 6.7 veces menos (PP = 0.15, p < 0.01) cuando había una población fuente cercana. Los sitios con desapariciones fueron 2.6 veces más propensos a tener langostinos introducidos que los sitios control (PP = 2.6, p= 0.04). La identificación de factores asociados con la desaparición de ranas incrementa el conocimiento de las declinaciones de poblaciones naturales y ayuda a los esfuerzos de conservación para el reestablecimiento y la protección de ránidos nativos mediante la identificación y priorización de las amenazas implicadas. [source]


Effects of Habitat Fragmentation by Damming on the Persistence of Stream-Dwelling Charr Populations

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2002
Kentaro Morita
We assessed the effect of habitat fragmentation by damming on the population persistence of a stream-dwelling fish, the white-spotted charr (Salvelinus leucomaenis), in streams of southwestern Hokkaido, Japan. We sampled for charr at 52 dammed-off sites by electrofishing or snorkeling and measured five habitat characteristics: isolation period, watershed area, gradient, elevation, distance from sea. Of the 52 study sites above dams, white-spotted charr were absent at 17 sites and were present at 35 sites. Because the charr occupied all undammed upstream reaches, the damming would cause the absence of charr upstream. Among five habitat characteristics examined, stepwise logistic-regression analysis showed that disappearance was promoted with increasing isolation period, with decreasing watershed area (i.e., habitat size), and with decreasing gradient. The resulting logistic model explained 82.7% of the present white-spotted charr occurrence and forecasted that 12 of 35 extant populations will disappear after 50 years. Our findings imply that extirpation of small, dammed-off populations is inevitable unless efficient fish ladders are installed or dams are removed. Resumen: La construcción de presas tiene serias consecuencias sobre los ecosistemas acuáticos y uno de los mas serios es el "efecto de barrera" ( la prevención de que un organismo migre a través del sistema). Evaluamos los efectos de la fragmentación del hábitat ocasionados por la construcción de presas en la persistencia de un pez morador de arroyos, la trucha de montaña de manchas blancas ( Salvelinus leucomaenis), en arroyos del suroeste de Hokkaido, Japón. Muestreamos en 52 sitios con represas empleando electropesca o buceo con esnórquel y medimos cinco características del hábitat ( periodo de aislamiento, área de la cuenca, gradiente, elevación y distancia al mar). De los 52 sitios de estudio ubicados arriba de las represas las truchas de montaña estuvieron ausentes en 17 sitios y presentes en 35 sitios. Debido a que las truchas de montaña ocupaban todos los rangos sin represas arroyo arriba, la creación de represas pudo causar la ausencia de truchas de montaña arroyo arriba. Dentro de las cinco características del hábitat examinadas, el análisis de regresión logística mostró que la desaparición era promovida por un incremento en el periodo de aislamiento, con una disminución en el área de la cuenca (i.e. tamaño del hábitat) y con una disminución del gradiente. El modelo logístico resultante explicó 82.7% de la presencia de truchas de montaña y pronosticó que 12 de la 35 poblaciones actuales desaparecerían después de 50 años. Nuestros resultados implican que la extirpación es pequeña y que la exclusión por construcción de represas es inevitable a menos que se instalen desvíos para peces o que se remuevan las presas. [source]


Prognostic Factors for the Surgery for Mesial Temporal Lobe Epilepsy: Longitudinal Analysis

EPILEPSIA, Issue 8 2005
Sang-Wuk Jeong
Summary:,Purpose: Determining long-term prognostic factors of surgery for mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) is important for identifying ideal candidates and predicting the prognosis for individual patients. We tried to identify the prognostic factors of anterior temporal lobectomy (ATL) for MTLE with longitudinal multivariate analysis. Methods: Two hundred twenty-seven patients with MTLE were included in this study. The primary outcome variable was patient status 1,5 years after surgery: seizure free, or not. Clinical characteristics and recent diagnostic modalities were considered as prognostic factors. Univariate and standard multiple logistic-regression analysis for outcome at 1 and 5 years after surgery and the generalized estimation equation (GEE) model for longitudinal multiple logistic regression of the 5-year follow-up period were used. Results: The seizure-free rate at 1 year was 81.1% and decreased to 75.2% at 5 years after surgery. By the univariate or standard multiple logistic-regression analysis, age at surgery or hippocampal sclerosis on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) ipsilateral to surgery was significant for the postsurgical outcome. However, the longitudinal analysis by the GEE model revealed that younger age at surgery [odds ratio (OR), 0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.43,0.81], absence of secondarily generalized tonic,clonic seizure (2°GTCS; OR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.26,0.79), and hippocampal sclerosis on MRI (OR, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.11,5.26) were significant predictors of a good surgical outcome. Conclusions: Age at surgery, presence of 2°GTCS, and hippocampal sclerosis on MRI are independent prognostic factors for ATL in MTLE. These findings suggest that MTLE is a progressive disorder, and surgical outcome is better when early ATL is performed. [source]


The clinical value of rapid assay for plasma B-type natriuretic peptide in differentiating congestive heart failure from pulmonary causes of dyspnoea

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PRACTICE, Issue 2 2008
S.-Q. Zhao
Summary Background:, B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is a cardiac neurohormone secreted from the cardiac ventricles in response to pressure overload. Objective:, To evaluate the optimal cutoff point of plasma BNP in diagnosing congestive heart failure (CHF). Methods:, We conducted a prospective study of 195 patients who were hospitalised with dyspnoea. Pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) was measured with a Swan-Ganz catheterisation and plasma BNP level was obtained by a rapid immunofluorescence assay in all patients. PCWP > 12 mmHg was chosen as the golden standard for left ventricular dysfunction in this study. The subjects were divided into two groups by the criteria, one group with dyspnoea caused by CHF (n = 134) and the other caused by lung diseases (n = 61). Results:, (1) BNP cutoff point of 100 pg/ml had a sensitivity of 94.34%, a specificity of 92.13% and an accuracy of 93.33% for differentiating CHF from pulmonary dyspnoea. (2) By multiple logistic-regression analysis, measurements of BNP added significantly independent predictive power to other clinical variables in models predicting which patients had CHF. Conclusion:, A value of 100 pg/ml or more for a rapid BNP assay may be the most accurate independent predictor of the presence or absence of CHF. [source]