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Local Extinction (local + extinction)
Selected AbstractsCOALESCENCE IN A METAPOPULATION WITH RECURRENT LOCAL EXTINCTION AND RECOLONIZATIONEVOLUTION, Issue 5 2003John R. Pannell Abstract Many species exist as metapopulations in balance between local population extinction and recolonization. The effect of these processes on average population differentiation, within-deme diversity, and specieswide diversity has been considered previously. In this paper, coalescent simulations of Slatkin's propagule-pool and migrant-pool models are used to characterize the distribution of neutral genetic diversity within demes (,s), diversity in the metapopulation a whole (TTT), the ratio FST= (,t,,S)/,T, Tajima's D statistic, and several ratios of gene-tree branch lengths. Using these distributions, power to detect differences in key metapopulation parameter values is determined under contrasting sampling regimes. The results indicate that it will be difficult to use sequence data from a single locus to detect a history of extinctions and recolonizations in a metapopulation because of high genealogical variance, the loss of diversity due to reductions in effective population size, and the fact that a genealogy of lineages from different demes under Slatkin's model differs from a neutral coalescent only in its time scale. Genetic indices of gene-tree shape that capture the effects of extinction/recolonization on both external branches and the length of the genealogy as a whole will provide the best indication of metapopulation dynamics if several lineages are sampled from several different demes. [source] Evaluating the Predicted Local Extinction of a Once-Common MouseCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2005OLIVER R.W. PERGAMS Chicago; declinación de especies comunes; extinción pronosticada; Peromyscus leucopus; Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii Abstract:,In an earlier paper (Pergams & Nyberg 2001) we found that the proportion of the prairie deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii), among all local Peromyscus museum specimens collected in the Chicago region, had significantly declined over time. This proportion changed from about 50% before 1900 to <10% in the last 25 years. Based on this proportion a regression model predicted the local extinction of the prairie deer mouse in 2009. To evaluate that prediction, we estimated current deer mouse abundance by live trapping small mammals at 15 preserves in Cook and Lake counties, Illinois (USA) at which prairie deer mice had previously been caught or that still contained their preferred open habitat. In 1900 trap nights, 477 mammals were caught, including 251 white-footed mice (P. leucopus), but only one prairie deer mouse. The observed proportion of Peromyscus that were prairie deer mice, 0.4%, was even lower than the 4.5% predicted for 2000. Here we also introduce a simple, new community proportions model, which for any given geographic region compares the proportions of species recently caught with the proportions of species in museums. We compared proportions of seven species collected in Cook and Lake counties and examined by Hoffmeister (1989) with proportions of these species that we caught. Ten percent of the museum community was prairie deer mice, but only 0.2% of our catch was. The current local scarcity of the prairie deer mouse is consistent with the regression-based prediction of its eminent local extinction. More conservation attention should be paid to changes in relative abundance of once-common species. Resumen:,En un artículo previo (Pergams & Nyberg 2001) encontramos que la proporción de Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii, entre todos los especimenes de museo de Peromyscus recolectados en la región de Chicago, había declinado significativamente. Esta proporción cambió de 50% antes de 1900 a <10% en los últimos 25 años. Con base en esta proporción, un modelo de regresión pronosticó la extinción local de P. m. bairdii en 2009. Para evaluar esa predicción, estimamos la abundancia actual de P. m. bairdii mediante el trampeo de mamíferos pequeños en 25 reservas en los condados Cook y Lake, Illinois (E.U.A.) en las que se había capturado a P. m. bairdii previamente o que aun contenían su hábitat abierto preferido. En 1900 noches-trampa, capturamos a 477 mamíferos, incluyendo a 251 P. leucopus pero solo a un P. m. bairdii. La proporción observada de P. m. bairdii, 0.4%, fue menor a 4.5% pronosticado para 2000. Aquí también introducimos un modelo, nuevo y sencillo, de proporciones de la comunidad que compara, para cualquier región geográfica, las proporciones de especies recientemente capturadas con la proporciones de especies en los museos. Comparamos las proporciones de siete especies recolectadas en los condados Cook y Lake y examinadas por Hoffmeister (1989) con las proporciones de especies que capturamos. Diez por ciento de la comunidad de museos era P. m. bairdii, pero solo 0.2% de nuestra muestra lo fue. La actual escasez local de P. m. bairdii es consistente con la predicción de su inminente extinción local con base en la regresión. La conservación debe prestar mayor atención a los cambios en la abundancia relativa de una especie anteriormente común. [source] Strength of Habitat and Landscape Metrics in Predicting Golden-Headed Lion Tamarin Presence or Absence in Forest Patches in Southern Bahia, BrazilBIOTROPICA, Issue 3 2010Becky E. Raboy ABSTRACT We investigated the effects of forest fragmentation on golden-headed lion tamarins (Leontopithecus chrysomelas) by qualitatively and quantitatively characterizing the landscape throughout the species range, conducting surveys, and exploring predictive models of presence and absence. We identified 784 forest patches that varied in size, shape, core area, habitat composition, elevation, and distance to neighboring patches and towns. We conducted 284 interviews with local residents and 133 playback experiments in 98 patches. Results indicated a reduction in the western portions of the former species range. We tested whether L. chrysomelas presence or absence was related to the aforementioned fragmentation indices using Monte Carlo logistic regression techniques. The analysis yielded a majority of iterations with a one-term final model of which Core Area Index (percent of total area that is core) was the only significant type. Model concordance ranged between 65 and 90 percent. Area was highlighted for its potential predictive ability. Although final models for area lacked significance, their failure to reach significance was marginal and we discuss potential confounding factors weakening the term's predictive ability. We conclude that lower Core Area Index scores are useful indicators of forest patches at risk for not supporting L. chrysomelas. Taken together, our analyses of the landscape, survey results, and logistic regression modeling indicated that the L. chrysomelas metapopulation is facing substantial threat. The limited vagility of lion tamarins in nonforest matrix may lead to increasingly smaller and inbred populations subject to significant impact from edge effects and small population size. Local extinction is imminent in many forest patches in the L. chrysomelas range. Abstract in Portuguese is available at http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/loi/btp [source] Connectivity, non-random extinction and ecosystem function in experimental metacommunitiesECOLOGY LETTERS, Issue 5 2010Philip Staddon Ecology Letters (2010) 13: 543,552 Abstract The spatial insurance hypothesis indicates that connectivity is an important attribute of natural ecosystems that sustains both biodiversity and ecosystem function. We tested the hypothesis by measuring the impact of manipulating connectivity in experimental metacommunties of a natural and diverse microecosystem. Isolation led to the extinction of large-bodied apex predators, subsequently followed by increases in prey species abundance. This trophic cascade was associated with significantly altered carbon and nitrogen fluxes in fragmented treatments. The ecosystem impacts were characteristic of a function debt because they persisted for several generations after the initial loss of connectivity. Local extinctions and disruption of ecosystem processes were mitigated, and even reversed, by the presence of corridors in the connected metacommunities, although these beneficial effects were unexpectedly delayed. We hypothesized that corridors maintained grazer movement between fragments, which enhanced microbial activity, and decomposition in comparison to isolated fragments. Our results indicate that knowledge of habitat connectivity and spatial processes is essential to understand the magnitude and timing of ecosystem perturbation in fragmented landscapes. [source] Site reoccupation in fragmented landscapes: testing predictions of metapopulation theoryJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Ralph S. Hames Summary 1,Populations of formerly continuously distributed species subdivided by habitat fragmentation may show distributions in space and time that are consistent with predictions of metapopulation theory. Local extinctions and recolonizations should result in the most fragmented sites being infrequently occupied and the least fragmented sites being continuously occupied by sensitive species. The probability of extinction is predicted to be negatively correlated with patch size and the amount of habitat in the landscape. Conversely, recolonization is predicted to be negatively correlated with the isolation of the patch, and positively correlated with the amount of habitat in the landscape. 2,Data from a 3-year study of the effect of fragmentation were used to test whether these predictions from metapopulation theory apply to populations of the long-distance migrant forest bird Piranga olivacea (Scarlet Tanager) in fragmented North American landscapes. 3,Principal components analysis was used to derive a composite measure of fragmentation. This measure was used in a logistic regression as a predictor of the number of years that territorial males would occupy a site, given that it was occupied at least once. More fragmented sites were more likely to be occupied only once; the least fragmented sites were more likely to be occupied in all three years. Data on fragmentation were necessary, but not sufficient, to predict site reoccupation, and were poor predictors at medium levels of fragmentation. 4,The univariate measures of fragmentation (patch size and isolation, proportion of forest, and forest/non-forest edge), were also used in logistic regressions to predict the separate probabilities of local extinction or recolonization. Local extinctions were negatively correlated with patch size and amount of forest in the landscape, as predicted. Recolonizations were negatively correlated with isolation of the patch as predicted, and surprisingly, also with the amount of edge in the landscape. This suggests that stochasticity may drive extinctions, but that habitat selection may play an important role in recolonization. 5,Demographic data are usually required to establish the suitability of habitat to support persistent populations, but multiple-year distributional data can provide information on habitat quality far above that obtained from single-year studies. [source] Evaluating the Predicted Local Extinction of a Once-Common MouseCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2005OLIVER R.W. PERGAMS Chicago; declinación de especies comunes; extinción pronosticada; Peromyscus leucopus; Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii Abstract:,In an earlier paper (Pergams & Nyberg 2001) we found that the proportion of the prairie deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii), among all local Peromyscus museum specimens collected in the Chicago region, had significantly declined over time. This proportion changed from about 50% before 1900 to <10% in the last 25 years. Based on this proportion a regression model predicted the local extinction of the prairie deer mouse in 2009. To evaluate that prediction, we estimated current deer mouse abundance by live trapping small mammals at 15 preserves in Cook and Lake counties, Illinois (USA) at which prairie deer mice had previously been caught or that still contained their preferred open habitat. In 1900 trap nights, 477 mammals were caught, including 251 white-footed mice (P. leucopus), but only one prairie deer mouse. The observed proportion of Peromyscus that were prairie deer mice, 0.4%, was even lower than the 4.5% predicted for 2000. Here we also introduce a simple, new community proportions model, which for any given geographic region compares the proportions of species recently caught with the proportions of species in museums. We compared proportions of seven species collected in Cook and Lake counties and examined by Hoffmeister (1989) with proportions of these species that we caught. Ten percent of the museum community was prairie deer mice, but only 0.2% of our catch was. The current local scarcity of the prairie deer mouse is consistent with the regression-based prediction of its eminent local extinction. More conservation attention should be paid to changes in relative abundance of once-common species. Resumen:,En un artículo previo (Pergams & Nyberg 2001) encontramos que la proporción de Peromyscus maniculatus bairdii, entre todos los especimenes de museo de Peromyscus recolectados en la región de Chicago, había declinado significativamente. Esta proporción cambió de 50% antes de 1900 a <10% en los últimos 25 años. Con base en esta proporción, un modelo de regresión pronosticó la extinción local de P. m. bairdii en 2009. Para evaluar esa predicción, estimamos la abundancia actual de P. m. bairdii mediante el trampeo de mamíferos pequeños en 25 reservas en los condados Cook y Lake, Illinois (E.U.A.) en las que se había capturado a P. m. bairdii previamente o que aun contenían su hábitat abierto preferido. En 1900 noches-trampa, capturamos a 477 mamíferos, incluyendo a 251 P. leucopus pero solo a un P. m. bairdii. La proporción observada de P. m. bairdii, 0.4%, fue menor a 4.5% pronosticado para 2000. Aquí también introducimos un modelo, nuevo y sencillo, de proporciones de la comunidad que compara, para cualquier región geográfica, las proporciones de especies recientemente capturadas con la proporciones de especies en los museos. Comparamos las proporciones de siete especies recolectadas en los condados Cook y Lake y examinadas por Hoffmeister (1989) con las proporciones de especies que capturamos. Diez por ciento de la comunidad de museos era P. m. bairdii, pero solo 0.2% de nuestra muestra lo fue. La actual escasez local de P. m. bairdii es consistente con la predicción de su inminente extinción local con base en la regresión. La conservación debe prestar mayor atención a los cambios en la abundancia relativa de una especie anteriormente común. [source] Metapopulation Extinction Risk under Spatially Autocorrelated DisturbanceCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 2 2005A. S. KALLIMANIS patrón espacial de perturbación; simulaciones espacialmente explícitas; SLOSS; umbral de extinción Abstract:,Recent extinction models generally show that spatial aggregation of habitat reduces overall extinction risk because sites emptied by local extinction are more rapidly recolonized. We extended such an investigation to include spatial structure in the disturbance regime. A spatially explicit metapopulation model was developed with a wide range of dispersal distances. The degree of aggregation of both habitat and disturbance pattern could be varied from a random distribution, through the intermediate case of a fractal distribution, all the way to complete aggregation (single block). Increasing spatial aggregation of disturbance generally increased extinction risk. The relative risk faced by populations in different landscapes varied greatly, depending on the disturbance regime. With random disturbance, the spatial aggregation of habitat reduced extinction risk, as in earlier studies. Where disturbance was spatially autocorrelated, however, this advantage was eliminated or reversed because populations in aggregated habitats are at risk of mass extinction from coarse-scale disturbance events. The effects of spatial patterns on extinction risk tended to be reduced by long-distance dispersal. Given the high levels of spatial correlation in natural and anthropogenic disturbance processes, population vulnerability may be greatly underestimated both by classical (nonspatial) models and by those that consider spatial structure in habitat alone. Resumen:,Los modelos recientes de extinción generalmente muestran que la agregación espacial de hábitat reduce el riesgo de extinción debido a una recolonización más rápida de sitios vacíos por extinción local. Extendimos la investigación para incluir la estructura espacial en el régimen de perturbación. Desarrollamos un modelo metapoblacional espacialmente explícito en el que el patrón espacial tanto del hábitat como de los regímenes de perturbación podía variar aleatoriamente de fractal a completamente agregado (bloque) y con una amplia gama de distancias de dispersión. El incremento de la agregación espacial de la perturbación generalmente incrementó el riesgo de extinción. El riesgo relativo que enfrentan poblaciones en paisajes diferentes fue muy variable, dependiendo del régimen de perturbación. Con perturbación aleatoria, la agregación espacial de hábitat redujo el riesgo de extinción, como en estudios anteriores. Sin embargo, cuando la perturbación estaba autocorrelacionada espacialmente, esta ventaja se eliminaba o invertía debido a que las poblaciones en hábitats agregados están en riesgo de extinción masiva por eventos perturbadores a escala gruesa. Los efectos de patrones espaciales sobre el riesgo de extinción tendieron a reducirse por la dispersión de larga distancia. Debido a los altos niveles de correlación espacial en los procesos naturales y humanos de perturbación, la vulnerabilidad puede estar enormemente subestimada tanto por modelos clásicos (no espaciales) como por los que sólo consideran la estructura espacial del habitat. Los modelos que consideran la estructura espacial del hábitat solo subestiman el riesgo en comparación con modelos que consideran la estructura especial de la perturbación. [source] Synergistic Effects of Subsistence Hunting and Habitat Fragmentation on Amazonian Forest VertebratesCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 6 2001Carlos A. Peres These effects are likely to be considerably aggravated by forest fragmentation because fragments are more accessible to hunters, allow no (or very low rates of ,) recolonization from nonharvested source populations, and may provide a lower-quality resource base for the frugivore-granivore vertebrate fauna. I examined the likelihood of midsized to large-bodied bird and mammal populations persisting in Amazonian forest fragments of variable sizes whenever they continue to be harvested by subsistence hunters in the aftermath of isolation. I used data from a comprehensive compilation of game-harvest studies throughout Neotropical forests to estimate the degree to which different species and populations have been overharvested and then calculated the range of minimum forest areas required to maintain a sustainable harvest. The size distribution of 5564 Amazonian forest fragments,estimated from Landsat images of six regions of southern and eastern Brazilian Amazonia,clearly shows that these are predominantly small and rarely exceed 10 ha, suggesting that persistent overhunting is likely to drive most midsized to large vertebrate populations to local extinction in fragmented forest landscapes. Although experimental studies on this negative synergism remain largely unavailable, the prospect that increasingly fragmented Neotropical forest regions can retain their full assemblages of avian and mammalian species is unlikely. Resumen: La cacería de subsistencia tiene efectos negativos profundos sobre la diversidad de especies, la biomasa y estructura de las comunidades de vertebrados en bosques de la Amazonía que de otra forma están poco perturbadas. Estos efectos se agravan considerablemente por la fragmentación del bosque porque los fragmentos son más accesibles a los cazadores, no permiten la recolonización por poblaciones no cazadas o disminuyen las tasas de recolonizacíon y pueden proporcionar una base de recursos de menor calidad para la fauna de vertebrados frugívoro-granívoros. Examiné la posibilidad de persistencia de poblaciones de aves y mamíferos medianos a grandes en fragmentos de bosque de tamaño variable si continúan sujetos a la cacería de subsistencia como una consecuencia del aislamiento. Utilicé datos de una compilación extensiva de estudios de cacería en bosques neotropicales para estimar el grado en que diferentes especies y poblaciones han sido sobre explotadas y calculé el área de bosque minima requerida para mantener una cosecha sostensible. La distribucíon de tamaños de 5564 fragmentos de bosque amazónica, estimado a partir de imágues de Landsat de seis regiones del sur y del esté de la Amazonía brasileña indica claramente que estos fragmentós son principalmente pegueños y que rara vez exceden las lolta, lo que sugiere que la sobre cacería persistente probablemente lleve a la extincíon local de poblaciones de vertebrados de tamaño mediano a grande en paisajes boscosos fragmentados. Aunque estudios experimentales de este sinergismo negativo no están disponibles, la perspectiva de que las regiones neotropicales cada vez más fragmentadas, puedan retener las comunidades completas de aves y mamíferos poco es probable. [source] Response Time of Wetland Biodiversity to Road Construction on Adjacent LandsCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 1 2000C. Scot T Findlay Species loss is unlikely to occur immediately, however. Rather, populations of susceptible species are expected to decline gradually after road construction, with local extinction occurring sometime later. We document lags in wetland biodiversity loss in response to road construction by fitting regression models that express species richness of different taxa ( birds, mammals, plants, and herptiles) as a function of both current and historical road densities on adjacent lands. The proportion of variation in herptile and bird richness explained by road densities increased significantly when past densities were substituted for more current densities in multiple regression models. Moreover, for vascular plants, birds, and herptiles, there were significant negative effects of historical road densities when the most current densities were controlled statistically. Our results provide evidence that the full effects of road construction on wetland biodiversity may be undetectable in some taxa for decades. Such lags in response to changes in anthropogenic stress have important implications for land-use planning and environmental impact assessment. Resumen: La construcción de caminos puede resultar en significativas pérdidas de biodiversidad tanto a escala local como regional debido a la restricción de movimiento entre poblaciones, incremento de la mortalidad, fragmentación de hábitat y efectos de borde, invasión de especies exóticas o mayor acceso de humanos a hábitats silvestres, con lo cual se espera que se incrementen las tasas locales de extinción o disminuyan las tasas locales de recolonización. Sin embargo, es improbable que la pérdida de especies ocurra inmediatamente. Más bien, se espera que las poblaciones de especies susceptibles declinen gradualmente después de la construcción del camino, extinguiéndose localmente poco tiempo después. Documentamos la pérdida de biodiversidad en humedales como respuesta a la construcción de caminos ajustando modelos de regresión que expresan la riqueza de especies de diferentes taxa (aves, mamíferos, plantas, reptiles y anfibios) como una función de las densidades actual e histórica de los caminos en tierras adyacentes. La proporción de variación en anfibios, reptiles y aves incrementó significativamente cuando las densidades históricas fueron sustituidas por densidades actuales en los modelos de regresión múltiple. Más aun, hubo efectos negativos significativos de las densidades de caminos históricas para plantas vasculares, aves, anfibios y reptiles cuando las densidades actuales fueron estadísticamente controladas. Nuestros resultados proporcionan evidencia de que los efectos de la construcción de caminos sobre la biodiversidad de humedales pueden se indetectables para algunos taxa por décadas. Tales rezagos en la respuesta a cambios en el estrés antropogénico tienen implicaciones importantes en la planificación de uso del suelo y la evaluación de impacto ambiental. [source] Long-distance dispersal of seeds in the fire-tolerant shrub Banksia attenuataECOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2009Tianhua He Long-distance dispersal (LDD) of seeds enables alleles, individuals and species of plants to (re)colonize suitable but remote habitats. Banksia attenuata is a long-lived resprouting shrub restricted to dune crests in fire-prone sclerophyll shrublands of the Eneabba sandplain, southwestern Australia. Highly polymorphic microsatellite DNA genetic markers and population assignment tests were employed to identify LDD immigrants among 788 individuals from 27 stands of B. attenuata comprising a metapopulation. Of the 487 (61.8% of the total) individuals unambiguously assigned to a unique source population, 27 (5.5%) were identified as immigrants by assignment to a known population other than that from which they were sampled, while the remaining 460 were assigned to the population from which they were sampled. The distance between source and sink populations for these immigrants ranged from 0.2 to 2.6,km, averaging 1.4,km, and broadly trending in the direction of seasonal winds. These results suggest that B. attenuata has similar long-distance seed dispersal properties as its co-occurring shorter-lived and fire-sensitive congener, B. hookeriana, despite fewer, larger and less mobile seeds. The frequency and distance of LDD for seeds observed in both species (5.5,6.8%) helps explain the persistence of populations on these geographically isolated dunes, where they are subject to local extinction from recurrent fire and severe summer drought, and will remain important under predicted climate change conditions. Analysis also revealed that species richness of the functional group to which B. attenuata belongs was positively correlated with the number of immigrants identified per dune, and such correlation was likely driven by environmental properties of the dunes, particularly water availability. [source] Gall wasps and their parasitoids in cork oak fragmented forestsECOLOGICAL ENTOMOLOGY, Issue 1 2007GUILLEM CHUST Abstract 1.,This paper explores the potential effects of host-plant fragmentation on cork oak gall wasp populations (Cynipidae, Hymenoptera) and on their predators, lethal inquilines, and parasitoids. To address this objective, galls were collected across a gradient of cork oak (Quercus suber) forest fragmentation in the East Pyrenees (Albera, Spain), and they were incubated to obtain the parasitism rates. 2.,Two hypotheses were tested: (1) Host-plant fragmentation may induce a decline in gall wasp populations because of area and isolation effects on local extinction and dispersal; as a consequence of that, parasitoids may decline even more strongly in fragmented habitats than their prey. (2) Host-plant fragmentation may cause a decline in gall wasp parasitoid populations that, in turn, can lead to an ecological release in their prey populations. 3.,Among the eight cork oak gall wasps sampled in the study area of Albera, the gall abundances of three species (Callirhytis glandium, Callirhytis rufescens, and Andricus hispanicus) were significantly related to forest fragmentation. The overall abundance of gall wasps was affected by a radius of , 890 m surrounding landscape, presenting constant abundances with forest loss until forest cover is reduced at , 40%; below that value the abundance increased rapidly. Three inquilines and 23 parasitoids species were recorded after gall incubation. In 25 cases, species of inquilines and parasitoids were newly recorded for the corresponding host in the Iberian peninsula. 4.,Although the overall parasitism rate was high (1.1), it was uncorrelated with fragmentation and with overall cynipid abundance. These results indicate that host-plant fragmentation was correlated with higher abundance of gall wasps, whereas the parasitism rate could not explain this hyper-abundance in small forest fragments. [source] A LIKELIHOOD FRAMEWORK FOR INFERRING THE EVOLUTION OF GEOGRAPHIC RANGE ON PHYLOGENETIC TREESEVOLUTION, Issue 11 2005Richard H. Ree Abstract At a time when historical biogeography appears to be again expanding its scope after a period of focusing primarily on discerning area relationships using cladograms, new inference methods are needed to bring more kinds of data to bear on questions about the geographic history of lineages. Here we describe a likelihood framework for inferring the evolution of geographic range on phylogenies that models lineage dispersal and local extinction in a set of discrete areas as stochastic events in continuous time. Unlike existing methods for estimating ancestral areas, such as dispersal-vicariance analysis, this approach incorporates information on the timing of both lineage divergences and the availability of connections between areas (dispersal routes). Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate branch-specific transition probabilities for geographic ranges, enabling the likelihood of the data (observed species distributions) to be evaluated for a given phylogeny and parameterized paleogeographic model. We demonstrate how the method can be used to address two biogeographic questions: What were the ancestral geographic ranges on a phylogenetic tree? How were those ancestral ranges affected by speciation and inherited by the daughter lineages at cladogenesis events? For illustration we use hypothetical examples and an analysis of a Northern Hemisphere plant clade (Cercis), comparing and contrasting inferences to those obtained from dispersal-vicariance analysis. Although the particular model we implement is somewhat simplistic, the framework itself is flexible and could readily be modified to incorporate additional sources of information and also be extended to address other aspects of historical biogeography. [source] Species richness and susceptibility to heat and drought extremes in synthesized grassland ecosystems: compositional vs physiological effectsFUNCTIONAL ECOLOGY, Issue 6 2004L. VAN PEER Summary 1We investigated effects of declining plant species richness (S) on resistance to extremes in grassland communities. 2Synthesized model ecosystems of different S, grown outdoors in containers, were exposed to a stress peak combining heat and drought. The heat wave was induced experimentally by infrared irradiation in free air conditions. 3Before the heat wave, the more species-rich communities produced more biomass as a result of a large and positive complementarity effect that outweighed a small negative selection effect. 4Water use during the heat wave was likewise enhanced by S, which could not be attributed to dominance of ,water-wasting' species. Instead, water consumption at high S exceeded that expected from changes in community biomass and biomass composition. The observed enhancement of resource (water) acquisition under stress with increasing S therefore probably originated from complementarity. 5Despite enhanced water use in the more diverse communities, plant survival was significantly less, affecting all species alike. Physiological stress, recorded as photochemical efficiency of photosystem II electron transport, was significantly greater. Before the heat wave, the changes in biomass composition that coincided with increasing S did not favour species that would later prove intrinsically sensitive or insensitive. 6Complementarity in resource use for biomass production had a cost in terms of reduced survival under stress, despite the likelihood of complementarity in water acquisition during exposure. The greater loss of individuals from the more diverse grasslands suggests enhanced risk of local extinction. [source] Climate change effects on upland stream macroinvertebrates over a 25-year periodGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2007ISABELLE DURANCE Abstract Climate change effects on some ecosystems are still poorly known, particularly where they interact with other climatic phenomena or stressors. We used data spanning 25 years (1981,2005) from temperate headwaters at Llyn Brianne (UK) to test three hypotheses: (1) stream macroinvertebrates vary with winter climate; (2) ecological effects attributable to directional climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are distinguishable and (3) climatic effects on macroinvertebrates depend on whether streams are impacted by acidification. Positive (i.e. warmer, wetter) NAO phases were accompanied by reduced interannual stability (=similarity) in macroinvertebrate assemblage in all streams, but associated variations in composition occurred only in acid moorland. The NAO and directional climate change together explained 70% of interannual variation in temperature, but forest and moorland streams warmed respectively by 1.4 and 1.7°C (P<0.001) between 1981 and 2005 after accounting for NAO effects. Significant responses among macroinvertebrates were confined to circumneutral streams, where future thermal projections (+1, +2, +3°C) suggested considerable change. Spring macroinvertebrate abundance might decline by 21% for every 1°C rise. Although many core species could persist if temperature gain reached 3°C, 4,10 mostly scarce taxa (5,12% of the species pool) would risk local extinction. Temperature increase in Wales approaches this magnitude by the 2050s under the Hadley HadCM3 scenarios. These results support all three hypotheses and illustrate how headwater stream ecosystems are sensitive to climate change. Altered composition and abundance could affect conservation and ecological function, with the NAO compounding climate change effects during positive phases. We suggest that acidification, in impacted streams, overrides climatic effects on macroinvertebrates by simplifying assemblages and reducing richness. Climatic processes might, nevertheless, exacerbate acidification or offset biological recovery. [source] Habitat loss, resource specialization, and extinction on coral reefsGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 10 2004Philip L. Munday Abstract Coral reefs worldwide are being degraded because of global warming (coral bleaching) and coastal development (sedimentation and eutrophication). Predicting the risk of species extinctions from this type of habitat degradation is one of the most challenging and urgent tasks facing ecologists. Habitat specialists are thought to be more prone to extinction than generalists; however, specialists may be more susceptible to extinction because (1) they are specialists per se, (2) they are less abundant than generalists, or (3) both. Here, I show that declines in coral abundance lead to corresponding declines in the abundance of coral-dwelling fishes, but with proportionally greater losses to specialists than generalists. In addition, specialists have smaller initial population sizes than generalists. Consequently, specialists face a dual risk of extinction because their already small populations decline more rapidly than those of generalists. Corresponding with this increased extinction risk, I describe the local extinction of one specialist species and the near-global extinction of another species. I conclude that habitat specialists will be the first species lost from coral reefs because their small populations suffer the most from human-induced disturbances. [source] Using molecular and quantitative variation for assessing genetic impacts on Nucella lapillus populations after local extinction and recolonizationINTEGRATIVE ZOOLOGY (ELECTRONIC), Issue 2 2006Isabelle Colson Abstract The dogwhelk Nucella lapillus is a predatory marine gastropod living on rocky shores in the North Atlantic. As with many other gastropod species, Nucella was affected by tributyltin (TBT) pollution during the 1970s and 1980s, and local populations underwent extinction. After a partial ban on TBT in the UK in 1987, vacant sites have been recolonized. Levels of genetic diversity and quantitative genetic variation in shell form were compared between recolonized sites and sites that showed continuous population at three localities across the British Isles. Overall, estimates of genetic diversity were only slightly lower in recolonized populations, suggesting that populations have recovered from previous impacts due to the relatively high levels of migration from non-impacted sites. Molecular and quantitative analyses are broadly concordant and a positive correlation was observed (although not statistically significant) between molecular and quantitative estimates of genetic diversity, indicating the potential usefulness of quantitative methods to complement molecular population genetics analyses. [source] Breeding birds on small islands: island biogeography or optimal foraging?JOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2006GARETH J. RUSSELL Summary 1We test MacArthur and Wilson's theory about the biogeography of communities on isolated habitat patches using bird breeding records from 16 small islands off the coasts of Britain and Ireland. 2A traditional examination of patterns of species richness on these islands suggests that area and habitat diversity are important predictors, but that isolation and latitude have a negligible impact in this system. 3Unlike traditional studies, we directly examine the fundamental processes of colonization and local extinction (cessation of breeding), rather than higher-order phenomena such as species richness. 4We find that many of MacArthur and Wilson's predictions hold: colonization probability is lower on more isolated islands, and extinction probability is lower on larger islands and those with a greater diversity of habitats. 5We also find an unexpected pattern: extinction probability is much lower on more isolated islands. This is the strongest relationship in these data, and isolation is the best single predictor of colonization and extinction. 6Our results show that examination of species richness alone is misleading. Isolation has a strong effect on both of the dynamic processes that underlie richness, and in this system, the reductions in both colonization and extinction probability seen on more distant islands have opposing influences on species richness, and largely cancel each other out. 7We suggest that an appropriate model for this system might be optimal foraging theory, which predicts that organisms will stay longer in a resource patch if the distance to a neighbouring patch is large. If nest sites and food are the resources in this system, then optimal foraging theory predicts the pattern we observe. 8We advance the hypothesis that there is a class of spatial systems, defined by their scale and by the taxon under consideration, at which decision-making processes are a key driver of the spatiotemporal dynamics. The appropriate theory for such systems will be a hybrid of concepts from biogeography/metapopulation theory and behavioural ecology. [source] Site reoccupation in fragmented landscapes: testing predictions of metapopulation theoryJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001Ralph S. Hames Summary 1,Populations of formerly continuously distributed species subdivided by habitat fragmentation may show distributions in space and time that are consistent with predictions of metapopulation theory. Local extinctions and recolonizations should result in the most fragmented sites being infrequently occupied and the least fragmented sites being continuously occupied by sensitive species. The probability of extinction is predicted to be negatively correlated with patch size and the amount of habitat in the landscape. Conversely, recolonization is predicted to be negatively correlated with the isolation of the patch, and positively correlated with the amount of habitat in the landscape. 2,Data from a 3-year study of the effect of fragmentation were used to test whether these predictions from metapopulation theory apply to populations of the long-distance migrant forest bird Piranga olivacea (Scarlet Tanager) in fragmented North American landscapes. 3,Principal components analysis was used to derive a composite measure of fragmentation. This measure was used in a logistic regression as a predictor of the number of years that territorial males would occupy a site, given that it was occupied at least once. More fragmented sites were more likely to be occupied only once; the least fragmented sites were more likely to be occupied in all three years. Data on fragmentation were necessary, but not sufficient, to predict site reoccupation, and were poor predictors at medium levels of fragmentation. 4,The univariate measures of fragmentation (patch size and isolation, proportion of forest, and forest/non-forest edge), were also used in logistic regressions to predict the separate probabilities of local extinction or recolonization. Local extinctions were negatively correlated with patch size and amount of forest in the landscape, as predicted. Recolonizations were negatively correlated with isolation of the patch as predicted, and surprisingly, also with the amount of edge in the landscape. This suggests that stochasticity may drive extinctions, but that habitat selection may play an important role in recolonization. 5,Demographic data are usually required to establish the suitability of habitat to support persistent populations, but multiple-year distributional data can provide information on habitat quality far above that obtained from single-year studies. [source] Wildfires and the expansion of threatened farmland birds: the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana in Mediterranean landscapesJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Lluís Brotons Summary 1It has been argued that wildfires are one of the major agents involved in landscape transformation in many European regions and their impact is expected to increase in the near future. Despite the recognized impact of fire on wildlife at a local scale, we lack information on the species responses to fire at larger spatial scales. 2In this study, we used the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana to evaluate the potential effects of wildfires on open-habitat species distribution. In contrast to most European countries, this farmland species has experienced a consistent range expansion during the last decades in Catalonia (northeast Iberian peninsula). Distribution data of the species collected at different time periods allowed us to test the role of fires in determining range expansions at a regional scale, and to evaluate the importance of dispersal constraints on distribution changes. 3Analyses of distribution data from 1975,1983 and 1999,2002 showed a consistent expansion of the ortolan bunting in Catalonia. After correcting for differences in sampling effort, changes in distribution showed a strong spatial pattern with colonization and stability, but not local extinction, being clumped in space. Patterns of change were also strongly and significantly associated with the amount of shrubland burnt between the two time periods, since areas that experienced a larger impact of fires in terms of burnt area showed a much higher probability of maintaining species presence or of being colonized. Colonization events appeared to be more likely in areas affected by fire especially when surrounding areas had already been colonized by the species. 4Synthesis and applications. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that wildfires, especially those affecting open woodlands or shrubby areas, play a critical role in the ecology of the ortolan bunting and have contributed to the recent expansion of the species in Catalonia. Furthermore, we have shown that colonization appears to be limited, not only by the availability of new burnt habitat but also by specific dispersal constraints. We suggest that, for several European threatened species associated with open habitats, burnt areas may partially compensate for the widespread loss and deterioration of farmland habitat, opening new management opportunities for their conservation. [source] Restoring tropical diversity: beating the time tax on species lossJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2003Cristina Martínez-Garza Summary 1Fragmentation of tropical forest is accelerating at the same time that already cleared land reverts to secondary growth. Fragments inexorably lose deep-forest species to local extinction while embedded in low-diversity stands of early successional pioneer trees. 2Pasture matrices undergoing passive secondary succession become a ,pioneer desert' from the vantage of remnant immigration, imposing a ,time tax' of loss of deep-forest plants from forest fragments. However, if seeds of deep-forest trees find pastures, or seedlings are planted there, many will prosper. 3Bypassing early domination of pioneer trees in regenerating matrices, or enriching matrices with animal-dispersed forest trees, may stem the loss of species from forest fragments and accelerate succession far from the edges of old forest. 4Synthesis and applications. Planting disperser-limited trees that establish in open ground may bypass 30,70 years of species attrition in isolated remnants by attracting animals that encourage normal processes of seed dispersal into and out of the fragments. Development of criteria for selection of persistent, reasonably rapidly growing, animal-dispersed species that are mixed with planted or naturally arriving pioneers will be an important component of enrichment planting. [source] Heterogeneous grazing causes local extinction of edible perennial shrubs: a matrix analysisJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2001L.P. Hunt Summary 1Population modelling and field measurements of births, growth and deaths were used to investigate the long-term change in abundance of Atriplex vesicaria (Chenopodiaceae), a long-lived, palatable, perennial shrub, under sheep grazing. Of particular interest was whether A. vesicaria is at risk of being eliminated throughout grazed paddocks when the recommended practice of continuous grazing at conservative stocking rates is employed. 2Time-invariant matrix population models indicated that the A. vesicaria population was in decline over much of the study paddock, but the rate of decline was greatest nearer to the water point (population growth rate , , 0·8). Time-varying stochastic matrix models projected that the A. vesicaria population would become locally extinct at most sites up to approximately 2200 m from water, occurring first closer to water (within 12,29 years). The population was stable (i.e. , , 1) at sites greater than 2200 m from water over the projection period of 100 years. 3Decreases in adult survival and recruitment made the largest contributions to reductions in the population growth rate. However, there were spatial patterns centred on the water point in the degree to which particular demographic processes contributed to these reductions, because of a grazing gradient and the differential sensitivity of demographic processes to grazing. Thus decreases in recruitment contributed to reductions in the population growth rate at greater distances. Such responses, together with the sensitivity of the population growth rate to these processes, determined the spatial pattern in population growth. 4The results suggest that piospheres (i.e. the zone of impact) continue to expand over many years under set-stocking so that the area around the water point that is devoid of A. vesicaria becomes larger. The process of expansion appears to first involve the inhibition of recruitment, followed by eventual mortality of established shrubs. 5The large contribution of adult survival to the population growth rate in A. vesicaria suggests that minimizing the mortality of established adults should be a priority for management. This is likely to involve resting from grazing at critical times such as during extended dry periods. This may also permit increased levels of recruitment during subsequent moister periods. [source] Relationships between local population persistence, local abundance and regional occupancy of species: distribution patterns of diatoms in boreal streamsJOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, Issue 11 2005Janne Soininen Abstract Aims, We have two aims: (1) to examine the relationship between local population persistence, local abundance and regional occupancy of stream diatoms and (2) to characterize the form of the species,occupancy frequency distribution of stream diatoms. Location, Boreal streams in Finland. There were three spatial extents: (1) across ecoregions in Finland, (2) within ecoregions in Finland, and (3) within a single drainage system in southern Finland. Methods, Diatoms were sampled from stones (epilithon), sediment (epipelon) and aquatic plants (epiphyton) in streams using standardized sampling methods. To assess population persistence, diatom sampling was conducted monthly at four stream sites from June to October. The relationships between local population persistence, local abundance and regional occupancy were examined using correlation analyses. Results, There was a significant positive relationship between local persistence and abundance of diatoms in epilithon, epipelon and epiphyton. Furthermore, local abundance and regional occupancy showed a significant positive relationship at multiple spatial extents; that is, across ecoregions, within ecoregions and within a drainage system. The relationships between occupancy and abundance did not differ appreciably among impacted and near pristine-reference sites. The occupancy,frequency distribution was characterized by a large number of satellite species which occurred at only a few sites, whereas core species that occurred at most sites were virtually absent. Main conclusions, The positive relationship between local population persistence and abundance suggested that a high local abundance may prevent local extinction or that high persistence is facilitated by a high local cell density. High local persistence and local abundance may also positively affect the degree of regional occupancy in stream diatoms. The results further showed that anthropogenic effects were probably too weak to bias the relationship between occupancy and abundance, or that the effects have already modified the distribution patterns of stream diatoms. The small number of core species in the species,occupancy frequency distribution suggested that the regional distribution patterns of stream diatoms, or perhaps unicellular microbial organisms in general, may not be fundamentally different from those described previously for multicellular organisms, mainly in terrestrial environments, although average global range sizes may differ sharply between these two broad groups of organisms. [source] Impact of the black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis minor) on a local population of Euphorbia bothae in the Great Fish River Reserve, South AfricaAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2009Bodina L. Luske Abstract In the Great Fish River Reserve, South Africa, black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis minor) feed extensively on a local population of Euphorbia bothae. Maintaining the endangered black rhinoceros and the protected E. bothae population are both conservation priorities of the reserve. Therefore, the sustainability of this plant,animal interaction was investigated by comparing population characteristics, browsing incidence and intensity within the reserve and in an adjacent exclosure without access to rhino. Fixed-point photographs showed that over a 2-month period 36.6% of 213 monitored plants were browsed, with an average biomass loss of 13%, and 1% were destroyed. Of 26 plants re-photographed after approximately 3 years, 70% showed a decrease in biomass, averaging 37.8% over this period. In this time span, 19% of the monitored plants died. Small plants (<45 cm) were over-represented in the rhino-browsed area, whereas the fraction of reproductively active plants and overall plant density were found to be lower than in the adjacent exclosure. No evidence of short-term compensatory growth in response to browsing was found for E. bothae. This study indicates that, with the current population size, rhinos are overexploiting the E. bothae population and special measures should be taken to prevent local extinction. Résumé Dans la Great Fish River Reserve, en Afrique du Sud, le rhinocéros noir (Diceros bicornis minor) se nourrit en très grande partie d'une population locale d'Euphorbia bothae. Le maintien du rhino noir en danger et de la population protégée d'E. bothae sont deux priorités de la réserve en matière de conservation. C'est pourquoi on a investigué la durabilité de cette interaction plante-animal en comparant les caractéristiques des populations, l'incidence et l'intensité de la consommation du rhino dans la réserve et dans un enclos adjacent d'où les rhinos sont exclus. Des photographies prises d'un point fixe ont montré que, sur une période de deux mois, 36.6% des 213 plantes suivies avaient été broutées, avec une perte moyenne de biomasse de 13%, et un pour cent avait été détruit. Des 26 plantes qui avaient été rephotographiées après environ trois ans, 70% montraient une diminution de la biomasse, qui était de 37.8% en moyenne pour cette période. Pendant ce laps de temps, 19% des plantes suivies sont mortes. Les petites plantes (<45 cm) étaient surreprésentées dans la zone broutée par les rhinos, alors que la fraction des plantes actives au point de vue reproduction et la densité générale des plantes se sont avérées plus faibles que dans l'enclos adjacent. On n'a pu mettre en évidence aucune croissance compensatoire d'E. bothaeà court terme en réponse au broutage des rhinos. Cette étude indique que, vu la taille actuelle de leur population, les rhinos surexploitent la population d'E. bothae et qu'il faut prendre des mesures spéciales pour empêcher l'extinction locale de cette dernière. [source] Cordia millenii: on the risk of local extinction?AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2009Fred Babweteera Abstract Selective logging of valuable tropical timber trees is a conservation concern because it threatens the long-term sustainability of forests. However, there is insufficient information regarding the postlogging recovery of harvested species. Here, I assessed the seed dispersal patterns, recruitment and abundance of Cordia millenii, a valuable timber tree in two Ugandan tropical rain forests that have been subjected to varying disturbance regimes. The aim was to determine the vulnerability of Cordia in these forests. The rate of seed dispersal was lower in the heavily disturbed Mabira Forest compared with the less disturbed Budongo Forest. Frugivores in Mabira were small-bodied individuals that spat seeds beneath fruiting trees, whereas 90% of the fruit in Budongo was consumed by large-bodied chimpanzees that disperse seeds over long distances. Juveniles of Cordia were not found in the closed forest, although they were found in forest gaps in Budongo but not Mabira. Mature tree density was higher in Budongo compared with Mabira. Lack of effective seed dispersal coupled with the inability of seedlings of Cordia to establish under closed canopy account for the arrested recruitment in Mabira. Enrichment planting in felling gaps is necessary to avoid local extinction of Cordia in forests without large vertebrates. Résumé L'abattage sélectif des espèces précieuses d'arbres tropicaux inquiète le milieu de la conservation parce qu'il menace la durabilité des forêts à long terme. Cependant, il n'y a pas assez d'informations au sujet de la restauration des espèces prélevées après l'abattage. Ici, j'ai évalué les schémas de dispersion des semences, le recrutement et l'abondance de Cordia millenii, une espèce d'arbre prisée, dans deux forêts tropicales pluviales d'Ouganda qui ont été soumises à des régimes de perturbation variables. Le but était de déterminer la vulnérabilité de Cordia dans ces forêts. Le taux de dispersion des graines était plus faible dans la forêt très perturbée de Mabira que dans la forêt de Budongo, moins dérangée. Les frugivores de Mabira étaient des individus de petite taille qui recrachaient les graines sous les arbres producteurs des fruits alors que 90% des fruits de Budongo étaient consommés par des chimpanzés qui peuvent disperser les semences sur le longues distances. On n'a pas trouvé de juvénile de Cordia dans la forêt fermée; on en trouvait dans des clairières dans la forêt de Budongo, mais pas dans celle de Mabira. La densité des arbres matures était plus haute à Budongo qu'à Mabira. Le manque de dispersion efficace des graines, coupléà l'incapacité des semences de Cordia de s'établir sous une canopée fermée, intervient dans l'arrêt du recrutement à Mabira. Il est nécessaire de pratiquer un enrichissement des plantations dans les clairières déboisées pour éviter l'extinction locale des Cordia dans les forêts qui n'abritent pas de grands vertébrés. [source] Is use of translocation for the conservation of subpopulations of oribi Ourebia ourebi (Zimmermann) effective?AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2009A case study Abstract In South Africa, the oribi, Ourebia ourebi is an endangered small antelope that requires conservation management and intervention to prevent their extinction. Use of translocation for the conservation of subpopulations facing local extinction in the wild has been proposed. In this study, fifteen oribi from threatened populations were captured and released (November 2004) on a private game reserve in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Radio telemetry was used to monitor the dispersal and survival of translocated oribi. Only one death occurred during that period. All other released oribi survived, and most remained in close proximity of the release site for more than a year postrelease. Reproduction also occurred. This suggests that, translocation could be a viable option for conserving wild populations of oribi, assuming that other factors, such as availability of suitable grassland habitat and that poaching has been curtailed, are met. Résumé En Afrique du Sud, l'oribi Ourebia ourebi est une petite antilope en danger qui requiert une gestion de la conservation et une intervention pour empêcher son extinction. On a proposé le recours à la translocation pour conserver les sous-populations confrontées à une extinction locale dans la nature. Dans le cadre de cette étude, 15 oribis de populations menacées ont été capturés pour être relâchés, en novembre 2004, dans une réserve de faune privée au KwaZulu-Natal, en Afrique du Sud. La radio-télémétrie a été utilisée pour suivre la dispersion et la survie des oribis déplacés. Il n'y eut qu'un mort pendant cette période. Tous les autres oribis relâchés ont survécu, et la plupart sont restés à proximité du site de lâcher pendant plus d'un an. Il y eut aussi des reproductions. Ceci suggère que la translocation peut être une option viable pour la préservation de populations sauvages d'oribis, pour autant que d'autres facteurs soient présents, comme la disponibilité d'habitats de prairies favorables, et que le braconnage soit sous contrôle. [source] Maintaining diversity through intermediate disturbances: evidence from rodents colonizing rehabilitating coastal dunesAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2000S. M. Ferreira Abstract Rodents inhabit the coastal dune forests of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Here habitat rehabilitation following mining of dunes has resulted in coastal dune forest succession similar to that recorded in nonmined forests. We investigated the colonization of rehabilitating stands and evaluate the role of disturbance in maintaining rodent diversity. A trapping programme was established between July 1993 and February 1995 during which rodent colonization, local extinction and species richness were recorded for rehabilitating stands of different ages. Trends in these variables were closely associated with one of three possible outcomes for a disturbed patch over time, with no intervening disturbances following the initial disturbance. Colonization was initially high which led to an increase in species richness. Extinction was lower than colonization, but became higher when the habitat was 3 years old, which led to a decline in richness. We extrapolate this result assuming negligibly small disturbances after the initiation of rehabilitation and suggest that intermediate levels of disturbance maintain rodent species richness in coastal dune forests. Furthermore, our results illustrated species turnover, a prediction of the recorded outcome, with young stands dominated by Mastomys natalensis and older stands by Saccostomus campestris or Aethomys chrysophilus. Résumé Il y a des rongeurs dans les forêts des dunes côtières du KwaZulu-Natal, en Afrique du Sud. Là, la réhabilitation de l'habitat après l'exploitation minière des dunes a abouti à une succession de forêts côtières des dunes semblable à celle qui est observée dans les forêts non exploitées. Nous avons étudié la colonisation des endroits en voie de réhabilitation et évalué le rôle des perturbations dans le maintien de la diversité des rongeurs. On a mis au point un programme de piégeage entre juillet 1993 et février 1995, pendant lequel on a noté la colonisation par les rongeurs, l'extinction locale et la richesse en espèces pour les endroits à différents stades de réhabilitation. Les tendances pour ces variables étaient étroitement associées à l'un des trois résultats possibles que peut conna,^tre avec le temps un endroit qui a été perturbé, lorsque aucune autre perturbation ne suit la première. La colonisation a d'abord été forte, ce qui a causé un enrichissement des espèces. Les extinctions étaient moins fréquentes que les colonisations, mais elles ont augmenté lorsque le nouvel habitat a atteint l'âge de trois ans, ce qui a entra,^né une perte de richesse en espèces. Nous extrapolons ce résultant en supposant que ce sont de petites perturbations négligeables après le démarrage de la réhabilitation et nous suggérons que des taux moyens de perturbation maintiennent la richesse spécifique des rongeurs dans les forêts des dunes côtières. De plus, nos résultats illustrent une rotation des espèces, une prédiction des résultats rapportés, avec les endroits les plus jeunes dominés par Mastomys natalensis et les plus anciens par Saccostomus campestris et Aethomys chrysophilus. [source] Tree species range shifts at a continental scale: new predictive insights from a process-based modelJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Xavier Morin Summary 1Climate change has already caused distribution shifts in many species, and climate predictions strongly suggest that these will accelerate in the future. Obtaining reliable predictions of species range shifts under climate change is thus currently one of the most crucial challenges for both ecologists and stakeholders. 2Here we simulate the distributions of 16 North American tree species at a continental scale for the 21st century according to two IPCC storylines, using a process-based species distribution model that for the first time allows identification of the possible causes of distribution change. 3Our projections show local extinctions in the south of species ranges (21% of the present distribution, on average), and colonizations of new habitats in the north, though these are limited by dispersal ability for most species. Areas undergoing local extinctions are slightly larger under climate scenario A2 (+3.2 C, +22% on average) than B2 (+1.0 C, +19% on average). This small difference is caused by nonlinear responses of processes (leaves and flowers phenological processes in particular) to temperature. We also show that local extinction may proceed at a slower rate than forecasted so far. 4Although predicted distribution shifts are very species-specific, we show that the loss of habitats southward will be mostly due to increased drought mortality and decreased reproductive success, while northward colonizations will be primarily promoted by increased probability of fruit ripening and flower frost survival. 5Synthesis. Our results show that different species will not face the same risks due to climate change, because their responses to climate differ as well as their dispersal rate. Focusing on processes, our study therefore tempers the alarming conclusions of widely used niche-based models about biodiversity loss, mainly because our predictions take into account the local adaptation and trait plasticity to climate of the species. [source] Influence of slope and aspect on long-term vegetation change in British chalk grasslandsJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2006JONATHAN BENNIE Summary 1,The species composition of fragmented semi-natural grasslands may change over time due to stochastic local extinction and colonization events, successional change and/or as a response to changing management or abiotic conditions. The resistance of vegetation to change may be mediated through the effects of topography (slope and aspect) on soils and microclimate. 2,To assess long-term vegetation change in British chalk grasslands, 92 plots first surveyed by F. H. Perring in 1952,53, and distributed across four climatic regions, were re-surveyed during 2001,03. Changes in vegetation since the original survey were assessed by comparing local colonization and extinction rates at the plot scale, and changes in species frequency at the subplot scale. Vegetation change was quantified using indirect ordination (Detrended Correspondence Analysis; DCA) and Ellenberg indicator values. 3,Across all four regions, there was a significant decrease in species number and a marked decline in stress-tolerant species typical of species-rich calcareous grasslands, both in terms of decreased plot occupancy and decreased frequency within occupied plots. More competitive species typical of mesotrophic grasslands had colonized plots they had not previously occupied, but had not increased significantly in frequency within occupied plots. 4,A significant increase in Ellenberg fertility values, which was highly correlated with the first DCA axis, was found across all regions. The magnitude of change of fertility and moisture values was found to decrease with angle of slope and with a topographic solar radiation index derived from slope and aspect. 5,The observed shift from calcareous grassland towards more mesotrophic grassland communities is consistent with the predicted effects of both habitat fragmentation and nutrient enrichment. It is hypothesized that chalk grassland swards on steeply sloping ground are more resistant to invasion by competitive grass species than those on flatter sites due to phosphorus limitation in shallow minerogenic rendzina soils, and that those with a southerly aspect are more resistant due to increased magnitude and frequency of drought events. [source] Breeding system, branching processes, hybrid swarm theory, and the humped-back diversity relationship as additional explanations for apparent monophyly in the Macaronesian island floraJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2005N. ELIZABETH SAUNDERS Summary 1Niche pre-emption and competitive exclusion is unsatisfactory as a sole explanation for the apparent paradox of a large number of monophyletic taxa in the Macaronesian island flora. 2Undetected hybridizations have been proposed as an additional plausible explanation. In addition, hybrid swarm theory predicts that hybridizations between invading species would promote adaptive radiation. 3We suggest that branching processes and coalescence offer yet another plausible explanation allowing for multiple colonizations of closely related taxa, which, because of their later local extinction or hybridization, would lead to apparent monophyly in the molecular record. 4The cause of such widespread radiation of a few taxa has not been explained, but may involve intermediate conditions of disturbance or productivity. This proposition has, to date, only been tested in a microbial model system, but it offers a reasonable explanation for the patterns observed in the Macaronesian flora, and perhaps in other island floras worldwide. [source] Estimating species' absence, colonization and local extinction in patchy landscapes: an application of occupancy models with rodentsJOURNAL OF ZOOLOGY, Issue 3 2007A. Mortelliti Abstract Making an inference on the absence of a species in a site is often problematic, due to detection probability being, in most cases, <1. Inference is more complicated if detection probability, together with distribution patterns, vary during the year, since the possibility of inferring a species absence, at reasonable costs, may be possible only in certain periods. Our aim here is to show how such challenging situations can be by tackled by applying some recently developed occupancy models combined with sample size (number of repeated surveys) estimation. We thus analysed the distribution of two rodents Myodes glareolus and Mus musculus domesticus in a fragmented landscape in central Italy pointing out how it is possible to identify true absences, non-detections, extinctions/colonizations and determine seasonal values of detection probability. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||