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Inflation Process (inflation + process)

Distribution by Scientific Domains
Business, Economics, Finance and Accounting60%

Selected Abstracts

Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?

ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 40 2004
Oya Celasun
SUMMARY Disinflation deficits Persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy-makers to recover from inflationary episodes without substantial output losses. Using survey data from eleven disinflation episodes, we can assess whether the more or less sluggish decline of inflation rates towards lower target levels is related to backward-looking pricing behavior or to imperfect credibility of the stabilization efforts. We find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. Second, we find that an improvement in various measures of fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This evidence suggests that, when attempting to stabilize inflation, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility. , Oya Celasun, R. Gaston Gelos and Alessandro Prati [source]

Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?

JOURNAL OF MONEY, CREDIT AND BANKING, Issue 2007
JAMES H. STOCK
Phillips curve; trend-cycle model; moving average; great moderation We examine whether the U.S. rate of price inflation has become harder to forecast and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate inflation process is well described by an unobserved component trend-cycle model with stochastic volatility or, equivalently, an integrated moving average process with time-varying parameters. This model explains a variety of recent univariate inflation forecasting puzzles and begins to explain some multivariate inflation forecasting puzzles as well. [source]

Overall numerical simulation of extrusion blow molding process

POLYMER ENGINEERING & SCIENCE, Issue 8 2000
Shin-Ichiro Tanifuji
This paper focuses on the overall numerical simulation of the parison formation and inflation process of extrusion blow molding. The competing effects due to swell and drawdown in the parison formation process were analyzed by a Lagrangian Eulerian (LE) finite element method (FEM) using an automatic remeshing technique. The parison extruded through an annular die was modeled as an axisymmetric unsteady nonisothermal flow with free surfaces and its viscoelastic properties were described by a K-BKZ integral constitutive equation. An unsteady die-swell simulation was performed to predict the time course of the extrudate parison shape under the influence of gravity and the parison controller. In addition, an unsteady large deformation analysis of the parison inflation process was also carried out using a three-dimensional membrane FEM for viscoelastic material. The inflation sequence for the parison molded into a complex-shaped mold cavity was analyzed. The numerical results were verified using experimental data from each of the sub-processes. The greatest advantage of the overall simulation is that the variation in the parison dimension caused by the swell and drawdown effect can be incorporated into the inflation analysis, and consequently, the accuracy of the numerical prediction can be enhanced. The overall simulation technique provides a rational means to assist the mold design and the determination of the optimal process conditions. [source]