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## Increasing Probability (increasing + probability)
## Selected Abstracts## Changing Patterns in Medication Use with Increasing Probability of Death for Older Medicare Beneficiaries JOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 8 2010Thomas Shaffer MHSOBJECTIVES: To determine whether use of symptom relief drugs (e.g., antidepressants, anxiolytics, opioid analgesics, sleep aids) rises and use of two commonly prescribed classes of chronic medications (statins and osteoporosis drugs) falls with greater probability of death for older Medicare beneficiaries. DESIGN: Pooled cross-sectional study. SETTING: Noninstitutionalized older Medicare population in 2000 to 2005. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older (N=20,233). MEASUREMENTS: Use of medications measured according to dichotomous flags; intensity of use by annual medication fills. Annual probability of death modeled using logistic regression and stratified into seven groups with predicted probabilities of death that range from less than 5% to greater than 50%. Prevalence of use and intensity (mean prescription fills per month) were computed for each class of medication. RESULTS: For symptom relief medications, there is relatively constant use with increasing probability of death, along with greater intensity of use. For the two chronic medications, there was a monotonic decrease in use but at a relatively constant intensity. Decline in statin use ranged from 34.4% in the lowest mortality stratum to 17.6% for those in the highest (P<.001). Use of osteoporosis drugs fell from 10.4% to 6.6% over the same range (P<.001). CONCLUSION: Greater intensity of use of symptom relief medications with increasing probability of death is consistent with hypothesized use. The different profile for chronic medications suggests that the time to benefit is being considered regarding therapy initiation, which results in lower use. [source] ## Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: a new measure and an application to Mexico 1994/95 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2002Torbjörn BeckerAbstract This paper develops a market-based measure of devaluation expectations derived from the relative stock market performance of companies with different exposures of current and future profits to exchange-rate changes. The measure can be viewed as a complement to measures of devaluation expectations based on interest-rate-parity conditions, survey data or macroeconomic models. Some of the benefits of the measure are that data are available on a timely basis and that the stock market has traditionally been free of central bank intervention. As an illustration, we examine the Mexican devaluation of 1994. Contrary to what might have been expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, high-net-exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. This pattern is, on the other hand, consistent with forward-looking stock prices that assigned an increasing probability to a devaluation benefiting exporting firms. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] ## Changing Patterns in Medication Use with Increasing Probability of Death for Older Medicare Beneficiaries JOURNAL OF AMERICAN GERIATRICS SOCIETY, Issue 8 2010Thomas Shaffer MHSOBJECTIVES: To determine whether use of symptom relief drugs (e.g., antidepressants, anxiolytics, opioid analgesics, sleep aids) rises and use of two commonly prescribed classes of chronic medications (statins and osteoporosis drugs) falls with greater probability of death for older Medicare beneficiaries. DESIGN: Pooled cross-sectional study. SETTING: Noninstitutionalized older Medicare population in 2000 to 2005. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 and older (N=20,233). MEASUREMENTS: Use of medications measured according to dichotomous flags; intensity of use by annual medication fills. Annual probability of death modeled using logistic regression and stratified into seven groups with predicted probabilities of death that range from less than 5% to greater than 50%. Prevalence of use and intensity (mean prescription fills per month) were computed for each class of medication. RESULTS: For symptom relief medications, there is relatively constant use with increasing probability of death, along with greater intensity of use. For the two chronic medications, there was a monotonic decrease in use but at a relatively constant intensity. Decline in statin use ranged from 34.4% in the lowest mortality stratum to 17.6% for those in the highest (P<.001). Use of osteoporosis drugs fell from 10.4% to 6.6% over the same range (P<.001). CONCLUSION: Greater intensity of use of symptom relief medications with increasing probability of death is consistent with hypothesized use. The different profile for chronic medications suggests that the time to benefit is being considered regarding therapy initiation, which results in lower use. [source] ## Improvement of Defibrillation Efficacy with Preshock Synchronized Pacing JOURNAL OF CARDIOVASCULAR ELECTROPHYSIOLOGY, Issue 5 2004HUI-NAM PAK M.D., Ph.D.Introduction: We previously demonstrated that wavefront synchronization by spatiotemporal excitable gap pacing (Sync P) is effective at facilitating spontaneous termination of ventricular fibrillation (VF). Therefore, we hypothesized that a spatiotemporally controlled defibrillation (STCD) strategy using defibrillation shocks preceded by Sync P can improve defibrillation efficacy. Method and Results: We explored the STCD effects in 13 isolated rabbit hearts. During VF, a low-voltage gradient (LVG) area was synchronized by Sync P for 0.92 second. For Sync P, optical action potentials (OAPs) adjacent to four pacing electrodes (10 mm apart) were monitored. When one of the electrodes was in the excitable gap, a 5-mA current was administered from all electrodes. A shock was delivered 23 ms after the excitable gap when the LVG area was unexcitable. The effects of STCD was compared to random shocks (C) by evaluating the defibrillation threshold 50% (DFT50; n = 35 for each) and preshock coupling intervals (n = 208 for STCD, n = 172 for C). Results were as follows. (1) Sync P caused wavefront synchronization as indicated by a decreased number of phase singularity points (P < 0.0001) and reduced spatial dispersion of VF cycle length (P < 0.01). (2) STCD decreased DFT50 by 10.3% (P < 0.05). (3) The successful shocks showed shorter preshock coupling intervals (CI; P < 0.05) and a higher proportion of unexcitable shock at the LVG area (P < 0.001) than failed shocks. STCD showed shorter CIs (P < 0.05) and a higher unexcitable shock rate at LVG area (P < 0.05) than C. Conclusion: STCD improves defibrillation efficacy by synchronizing VF activations and increasing probability of shock delivery to the unexcitable LVG area. (J Cardiovasc Electrophysiol, Vol. 15, pp. 581-587, May 2004) [source] ## Ice-storm disturbance and long-term forest dynamics in the Adirondack Mountains JOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 2 2004Charles W. LafonIce storms cause periodic disturbance to temperate forests of eastern North America. They are the primary agents of disturbance in some eastern forests. In this paper, a forest gap model is employed to explore consequences of ice storms for the long-term dynamics of Tsuga canadensis-northem hardwoods forests. The gap model LINKAGES was modified to simulate periodic ice storm disturbance in the Adirondack Mountains of New York. To adapt the gap model for this purpose, field data on ice storm disturbance are used to develop a polytomous logistic regression model of tree damage. The logistic regression model was then incorporated into the modified forest gap model, LINK ADIR, to determine the type of damage sustained by each simulated tree. The logistic regression model predicts high probabilities of bent boles or severe bole damage (leaning, snapping, or uprooting) in small-diameter trees, and increasing probability of canopy damage as tree size increases. Canopy damage is most likely on gentle slopes; the probability of severe bole damage increases with increasing slope angle. In the LINKADIR simulations, tree damage type determines the probability of mortality; trees with severe bole damage are assigned the highest mortality rate. LINKADIR predicts Tsuga canadensis dominance in mesophytic old-growth forests not disturbed by ice storms. When ice storms are simulated, the model predicts Acer saccharum -dominated forests with higher species richness. These results suggest that ice storms may function as intermediate disturbances that enhance species richness in forested Adirondack landscapes. [source] ## Economic Growth and Potential Punishment Under Dictatorship KYKLOS INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF SOCIAL SCIENCES, Issue 2 2007Abel Escribà-FolchSUMMARY This paper explores whether the probability of being punished after losing power leads dictators to restrain their level of predation and, thus, increase economic growth. To do so, a simple model of predatory rule is developed, and the consequences of an increasing probability of punishment after loosing power explored. New data on dictators' post-exit fate have permitted to estimate the predicted probability of punishment taking place by using multinomial logit. Outgoing dictators' strength and the international context are shown to be the main determinants of post-exit scenarios. The probability of punishment is proven to have a positive and significant effect on the rate of growth of GDP under alternative specifications of growth regressions. [source] |