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Hypotheses Argue (hypothesis + argue)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Humanities and Social Sciences	50%

Selected Abstracts

Problem Representation and Conflict Dynamics in the Middle East and Northern Ireland

FOREIGN POLICY ANALYSIS, Issue 3 2005
Donald A. Sylvan
In an effort to explain conflictual and cooperative actions in the Middle East and Northern Ireland at a time (1995,1999) when international structural factors were relatively constant, this article focuses on cognitive factors. Specifically, statements of leaders representing multiple actors in the Israeli,Palestinian and Northern Ireland relationship are examined. Texts from these leaders serve as data for the independent variable, problem representation. Hypotheses argue that the existence and centrality of actor problem representations can help explain behavior, in a manner that adds to more widely used scholarly explanations. More specifically, the article explores the relationship among leaders' "problem representations" and conflict between the entities they lead. Problem representation is measured in three dimensions using Foreign Broadcast Information Service (World News Connection) texts: (1) centrality of enemy image, (2) how inclusive/exclusive the leader is in describing the in-group and principal outgroup, and (3) the key definition of the problem (coded in terms of three strategies: justice, governance, or threat). Conflict, the dependent variable, is measured in terms of KEDS-TABARI event data on deeds (not words) in the Israeli,Palestinian and Northern Ireland conflicts. Strikingly, the analysis finds that Israeli actions are strongly related to prior and current Palestinian leaders' problem representations, much more than they are to Israeli leaders' problem representations. Similarly, Palestinian actions are found to have a clear relationship with prior and current Israeli leaders' problem representations, much more than they are with Palestinian leaders' problem representations. These results are particularly strong when the problem representation is one of the overall political leadership on the "other" side. Additionally, in-group and out-group inclusivity are the most significant predictors of actions. For Northern Ireland, the same two themes prevail, although not as strongly: there is a clear statistical relationship between each side's problem representations and the other side's actions, stronger in fact than the relationship between their own side's representations and actions. Also, in-group and out-group inclusivity produce a strong statistical relationship with conflict and cooperation. Finally, results are compared with a "tit-for-tat" hypothesis, and found to embellish that hypothesis. [source]

Effects of Economic Prosperity on Numbers of Threatened Species

CONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2001
Robin Naidoo
We corrected for factors that might otherwise confound such a relationship. Our study was motivated by the continuing debate over the relationship between environmental degradation and per-capita income. Proponents of the environmental Kuznets-curve hypothesis argue that although environmental degradation may increase initially, increases in per-capita income will eventually result in greater environmental quality. Theoretical objections and the lack of widespread empirical evidence recently have thrown doubt on the existence of such a pattern. Treating threat to biodiversity as one potential indicator of environmental degradation, we divided threatened species into seven taxonomic groups ( plants, mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, fishes, and invertebrates) and analyzed each group separately. Count-data regression analysis indicated that the number of threatened species was related to per-capita gross national product in five of seven taxonomic groups. Birds were the only taxonomic group in which numbers of threatened species decreased throughout the range of developed countries' per-capita gross national product. Plants, amphibians, reptiles, and invertebrates showed increasing numbers of threatened species throughout this same range. If these relationships hold, increasing numbers of species from several taxonomic groups are likely to be threatened with extinction as countries increase in prosperity. A key challenge is to understand the interactions among consumer preferences, biology, and institutions that lead to the relationship observed for birds and to see whether this knowledge can be applied to conservation of other taxa. Resumen: Utilizamos datos de más de 100 países para investigar la relación entre números de especies amenazadas y el producto interno bruto per cápita. Hicimos ajustes para factores que pudieran confundir tal relación. Nuestro estudio fue motivado por el continuo debate sobre la relación entre la degradación ambiental y el ingreso per cápita. Proponentes de la hipótesis de la curva ambiental de Kuznets argumentan que, aunque la degradación ambiental puede aumentar inicialmente, el incremento en el ingreso per cápita eventualmente resultará en una mejor calidad ambiental. Recientemente, objeciones teóricas y la carencia de evidencia empírica generalizada hacen dudar de la existencia de ese patrón. Tratando la amenaza a la biodiversidad como un potencial indicador de la degradación ambiental, dividimos a las especies amenazadas en siete grupos taxonómicos (plantas, mamíferos, aves, anfibios, reptiles, peces e invertebrados) y analizamos cada uno por separado. El análisis de regresión de los datos de conteo indicó que el número de especies amenazadas se relacionó con el producto interno bruto per cápita en 5 de los 7 grupos taxonómicos. Las aves fueron el único grupo en el que el número de especies amenazadas decreció a lo largo del rango del producto interno bruto per cápita de los países desarrollados. Las plantas, anfibios, reptiles e invertebrados mostraron un incremento en el número de especies amenazadas en este mismo rango. Si estas relaciones persisten, es posible que aumente el número de especies, de varios grupos taxonómicos, amenazadas de extinción a medida que los países incrementen su prosperidad. Constituye un reto clave entender las interacciones entre la preferencia de los consumidores y los factores biológicos e institucionales que conducen a la relación observada en las aves, y ver si este conocimiento puede aplicarse en la conservación de otros taxones. [source]

Intraregional Migration, Direct Action Land Reform, and New Land Settlements in the Brazilian Amazon

BULLETIN OF LATIN AMERICAN RESEARCH, Issue 4 2010
STEPHEN G. PERZ
This article analyses migration histories of residents in rural settlements of the Brazilian Amazon that resulted from direct action land reform (DALR), which involves organised land occupations. Our analysis evaluates two hypotheses. The ,urban migration' expectation asserts that urban experience is important for DALR participation, which links rural and urban areas via migration for land occupations. The ,DALR efficacy' hypothesis argues that migration and DALR are complementary livelihood strategies, such that participation in DALR obviates the need for further migration. Our findings support both hypotheses and bear implications for regional development and environmental change in the Amazon. [source]

Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 2 2009
Masahiro AshiyaArticle first published online: 19 SEP 200
Abstract This paper investigates strategic motives of macroeconomic forecasters and the effect of their professional affiliations. The ,wishful expectations hypothesis' suggests that a forecaster predicts what his employer wishes. The ,publicity hypothesis' argues that forecasters are evaluated by both accuracy and ability to generate publicity, and that forecasters in industries that emphasize publicity most will make most extreme and least accurate predictions. The ,signaling hypothesis' asserts that an extreme forecast signals confidence in own ability, because incompetent forecasters would mimic others to avoid public notice. Empirical evidence from a 26-year panel of annual GDP forecasts is con-sistent with the publicity hypothesis. This indicates that conventional tests of rationality are biased toward rejecting the rational expectations hypothesis. Copyright ? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]