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Hydrological Models (hydrological + models)
Selected AbstractsA Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2009Paul J. Block Abstract:, Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast of 1974-1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9 GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models, are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing streamflow hindcasts. Multi-model ensemble combination techniques include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble hindcast. [source] Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling studyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 19 2010Daniela R. D'Agostino Abstract Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km2). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5,10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15,20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25,1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5,1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21,31% and stream flows by 16,23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling hydrological management for the restoration of acidified floating fensHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 20 2005Stefan C. Dekker Abstract Wetlands show a large decline in biodiversity. To protect and restore this biodiversity, many restoration projects are carried out. Hydrology in wetlands controls the chemical and biological processes and may be the most important factor regulating wetland function and development. Hydrological models may be used to simulate these processes and to evaluate management scenarios for restoration. HYDRUS2D, a combined saturated,unsaturated groundwater flow and transport model, is presented. This simulates near-surface hydrological processes in an acidified floating fen, with the aim to evaluate the effect of hydrological restoration in terms of conditions for biodiversity. In the acidified floating fen in the nature reserve Ilperveld (The Netherlands), a trench system was dug for the purpose of creating a runoff channel for acid rainwater in wet periods and to enable circum-neutral surface water to enter the fen in dry periods. The model is calibrated against measured conductivity values for a 5 year period. From the model simulations, it was found that lateral flow in the floating raft is limited. Furthermore, the model shows that the best management option is a combination of trenches and inundation, which gave the best soil water quality in the root zone. It is concluded that hydrological models can be used for the calculation of management scenarios in restoration projects. The combined saturated,unsaturated model concept used in this paper is able to incorporate the governing hydrological processes in the wetland root zones. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Error-correction methods and evaluation of an ensemble based hydrological forecasting system for the Upper Danube catchmentATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2008K. Bogner Abstract Within the EU Project PREVention, Information and Early Warning (PREVIEW), ensembles of discharge series have been generated for the Danube catchment by the use of various weather forecast products. Hydrological models applied for streamflow prediction often have simulation errors that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. Therefore, error-correction methods have been tested for adjusting the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows. This article presents first results of the combination of state-space models and wavelet transformations in order to update errors between the simulated (forecasted) and the observed discharge. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Sphagnum under pressure: towards an ecohydrological approach to examining Sphagnum productivityECOHYDROLOGY, Issue 4 2008D. K. Thompson Abstract The genus Sphagnum is the key peat-forming bryophyte in boreal ecosystems. Relying entirely on passive capillary action for water transport, soil moisture is often the limiting factor in Sphagnum production, and hence peat accumulation. While several hydrological models of peat physics and peatland water movement exist, these models do not readily interface with observations and models of peatland carbon accumulation. A conflict of approaches exists, where hydrological studies primarily utilize variables such as hydraulic head, while ecological models of Sphagnum growth adopt the coarse hydrological variables of water table (WT), volumetric water content (VWC) or gravimetric water content (WC). This review examines the potential of soil pressure head as a measurement to link the hydrological and ecological functioning of Sphagnum in peatlands. The non-vascular structure of Sphagnum mosses and the reliance on external capillary transport of water in the mosses make them an ideal candidate for this approach. The main advantage of pressure head is the ability to mechanistically link plot-scale hydrology to cellular-scale water requirements and carbon exchange. Measurement of pressure head may improve photosynthetic process representation in the next generation of peatland models. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Regional Climate Models for Hydrological Impact Studies at the Catchment Scale: A Review of Recent Modeling StrategiesGEOGRAPHY COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 7 2010Claudia Teutschbein This article reviews recent applications of regional climate model (RCM) output for hydrological impact studies. Traditionally, simulations of global climate models (GCMs) have been the basis of impact studies in hydrology. Progress in regional climate modeling has recently made the use of RCM data more attractive, although the application of RCM simulations is challenging due to often considerable biases. The main modeling strategies used in recent studies can be classified into (i) very simple constructed modeling chains with a single RCM (S-RCM approach) and (ii) highly complex and computing-power intensive model systems based on RCM ensembles (E-RCM approach). In the literature many examples for S-RCM can be found, while comprehensive E-RCM studies with consideration of several sources of uncertainties such as different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, GCMs, RCMs and hydrological models are less common. Based on a case study using control-run simulations of fourteen different RCMs for five Swedish catchments, the biases of and the variability between different RCMs are demonstrated. We provide a short overview of possible bias-correction methods and show that inter-RCM variability also has substantial consequences for hydrological impact studies in addition to other sources of uncertainties in the modeling chain. We propose that due to model bias and inter-model variability, the S-RCM approach is not advised and ensembles of RCM simulations (E-RCM) should be used. The application of bias-correction methods is recommended, although one should also be aware that the need for bias corrections adds significantly to uncertainties in modeling climate change impacts. [source] Evaluating local hydrological modelling by temporal gravity observations and a gravimetric three-dimensional modelGEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2010M. Naujoks SUMMARY An approach for the evaluation of local hydrological modelling is presented: the deployment of temporal terrestrial gravity measurements and gravimetric 3-D modelling in addition to hydrological point observations. Of particular interest is to what extent such information can be used to improve the understanding of hydrological process dynamics and to evaluate hydrological models. Because temporal gravity data contain integral information about hydrological mass changes they can be considered as a valuable augmentation to traditional hydrological observations. On the other hand, hydrological effects need to be eliminated from high-quality gravity time-series because they interfere with small geodynamic signals. In areas with hilly topography and/or inhomogeneous subsoil, a simple reduction based on hydrological point measurements is usually not sufficient. For such situations, the underlying hydrological processes in the soil and the disaggregated bedrock need to be considered in their spatial and temporal dynamics to allow the development of a more sophisticated reduction. Regarding these issues interdisciplinary research has been carried out in the surroundings of the Geodynamic Observatory Moxa, Germany. At Moxa, hydrologically induced gravity variations of several 10 nm s,2 are observed by the stationarily operating superconducting gravimeter and by spatially distributed and repeated high-precision measurements with transportable relative instruments. In addition, hydrological parameters are monitored which serve as input for a local hydrological catchment model for the area of about 2 km2 around the observatory. From this model, spatial hydrological variations are gained in hourly time steps and included as density changes of the subsoil in a well-constrained gravimetric 3-D model to derive temporal modelled gravity variations. The gravity variations obtained from this combined modelling correspond very well to the observed hydrological gravity changes for both, short period and seasonal signals. From the modelling the amplitude of the impact on gravity of hydrological changes occurring in different distances to the gravimeter location can be inferred. Possible modifications on the local hydrological model are discussed to further improve the quality of the model. Furthermore, a successful reduction of local hydrological effects in the superconducting gravimeter data is developed. After this reduction global seasonal fluctuations are unmasked which are in correspondence to GRACE observations and to global hydrological models. [source] Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling studyHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 19 2010Daniela R. D'Agostino Abstract Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km2). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5,10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15,20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25,1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5,1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21,31% and stream flows by 16,23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Impact of land use on the hydraulic properties of the topsoil in a small French catchmentHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 17 2010E. Gonzalez-Sosa Abstract The hydraulic properties of the topsoil control the partition of rainfall into infiltration and runoff at the soil surface. They must be characterized for distributed hydrological modelling. This study presents the results of a field campaign documenting topsoil hydraulic properties in a small French suburban catchment (7 km2) located near Lyon, France. Two types of infiltration tests were performed: single ring infiltration tests under positive head and tension-disk infiltration using a mini-disk. Both categories were processed using the BEST,Beerkan Estimation of Soil Transfer parameters,method to derive parameters describing the retention and hydraulic conductivity curves. Dry bulk density and particle size data were also sampled. Almost all the topsoils were found to belong to the sandy loam soil class. No significant differences in hydraulic properties were found in terms of pedologic units, but the results showed a high impact of land use on these properties. The lowest dry bulk density values were obtained in forested soils with the highest organic matter content. Permanent pasture soils showed intermediate values, whereas the highest values were encountered in cultivated lands. For saturated hydraulic conductivity, the highest values were found in broad-leaved forests and small woods. The complementary use of tension-disk and positive head infiltration tests highlighted a sharp increase of hydraulic conductivity between near saturation and saturated conditions, attributed to macroporosity effect. The ratio of median saturated hydraulic conductivity to median hydraulic conductivity at a pressure of , 20 mm of water was about 50. The study suggests that soil texture, such as used in most pedo-transfer functions, might not be sufficient to properly map the variability of soil hydraulic properties. Land use information should be considered in the parameterizations of topsoil within hydrological models to better represent in situ conditions, as illustrated in the paper. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Using GIS and a digital elevation model to assess the effectiveness of variable grade flow diversion terraces in reducing soil erosion in northwestern New Brunswick, CanadaHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 23 2009Qi Yang Abstract Flow diversion terraces (FDT) are commonly used beneficial management practice (BMP) for soil conservation on sloped terrain susceptible to water erosion. A simple GIS-based soil erosion model was designed to assess the effectiveness of the FDT system under different climatic, topographic, and soil conditions at a sub-basin level. The model was used to estimate the soil conservation support practice factor (P -factor), which inherently considered two major outcomes with its implementation, namely (1) reduced slope length, and (2) sediment deposition in terraced channels. A benchmark site, the agriculture-dominated watershed in northwestern New Brunswick (NB), was selected to test the performance of the model and estimated P -factors. The estimated P -factors ranged from 0·38,1·0 for soil conservation planning objectives and ranged from 0·001 to 0·45 in sediment yield calculations for water-quality assessment. The model estimated that the average annual sediment yield was 773 kg ha,1 yr ,1 compared with a measured value of 641 kg ha,1 yr,1. The P -factors estimated in this study were comparable with predicted values obtained with the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE2). The P -factors from this study have the potential to be directly used as input in hydrological models, such as the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), or in soil conservation planning where only conventional digital elevation models (DEMs) are available. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling blowing snow redistribution to prairie wetlandsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 18 2009X. Fang Abstract Blowing snow transports and sublimates a substantial portion of the seasonal snowfall in the prairies of western Canada. Snow redistribution is an important feature of prairie hydrology as deep snowdrifts provide a source of meltwater to replenish ponds and generate streamflow in this dry region. The spatial distribution of snow water equivalent in the spring is therefore of great interest. A test of the distributed and aggregated modelling strategies for blowing snow transport and sublimation was conducted at the St. Denis National Wildlife Area in the rolling, internally drained prairie pothole region east of Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. A LiDAR-based DEM and aerial photograph-based vegetation cover map were available for this region. A coupled complex windflow and blowing snow model was run with 262,144 6 m × 6 m grid cells to produce spatially distributed estimates of seasonal blowing snow transport and sublimation. The calculation was then aggregated to seven landscape units that represented the major influences of surface roughness, topography and fetch on blowing snow transport and sublimation. Both the distributed and aggregated simulations predicted similar end-of-winter snow water equivalent with substantial redistribution of blowing snow from exposed sparsely vegetated sites across topographic drainage divides to the densely vegetated pothole wetlands. Both simulations also agreed well with snow survey observations. While the distributed calculations provide a fascinating and detailed visual image of the interaction of complex landscapes and blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, it is clear that blowing snow transport and sublimation calculations can be successfully aggregated to the spatial scale of the major landscape units in this environment. This means that meso and macroscale hydrological models can represent blowing snow redistribution successfully in the prairies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Parameterizing redistribution and sublimation of blowing snow for hydrological models: tests in a mountainous subarctic catchmentHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 18 2009Matthew K. MacDonald Abstract Model tests of blowing snow redistribution and sublimation by wind were performed for three winters over a small mountainous sub-Arctic catchment located in the Yukon Territory, Canada, using a physically based blowing snow model. Snow transport fluxes were distributed over multiple hydrological response units (HRUs) using inter-HRU snow redistribution allocation factors (SR). Three SR schemes of varying complexity were evaluated. Model results show that end-of-winter snow accumulation can be most accurately simulated using a physically based blowing snow model when SR values are established when taking into account wind direction and speed and HRU aerodynamic characteristics, along with the spatial arrangement of the HRUs in the catchment. With the knowledge that snow transport scales approximately with the fourth power of wind speed (u4), SR values can be (1) established according to the predominant u4 direction and magnitude over a simulation period or (2) can change at each time step according to a measured wind direction. Unfortunately, wind direction data were available only for one of the three winters, so the latter scheme was tested only once. Although the aforementioned SR schemes produced different results, model efficiency was of similar merit. The independent effects of topography and vegetation were examined to assess their importance on snow redistribution modelling over mountainous terrain. Snow accumulation was best simulated when including explicit representations of both landscape vegetation (i.e. vegetation height and density) and topography (i.e. wind exposure). There may be inter-basin differences in the relative importance of model representations of topography and vegetation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Effects of spatial grid resolution on river flow and surface inundation simulation by physically based distributed modelling approachHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 4 2009Dushmanta Dutta Abstract Grid-based distributed hydrological models are considered to be a very effective flood modelling tool for basin-wide flood risk analysis because of their capabilities of simulating river and surface inundations at high spatio-temporal resolutions by taking advantages of grid-based data from meteorological models, radar and satellite remote sensing. Selecting an appropriate grid size is critically important for any application of a grid-based model, which requires proper understanding of effects of grid sizes on simulated outcomes. The paper presents the outcomes of a study conducted to analyse the effects of grid resolution on simulated river peak flows and surface inundation in two selected river basins using a process-based distributed hydrological model. The outcomes show that grid resolution significantly affects the simulated river peak flows and surface inundation characteristics. In both cases, it has been found that the effects are mainly caused by changes of the topographic parameters as a result of changes of grid sizes. The reduction of average surface slope with the increase of grid size affects the simulated surface inundation extents and heights. There is a threshold resolution of digital elevation model (DEM) in the simulated flood inundation and beyond that the model outcomes become arbitrary. Averaged topographic values at coarse resolution beyond this threshold level do not represent any characteristics of locally elevated topographic features such as dykes, highways, etc. and their influence on flood inundation characteristics can be no more captured by the model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Understanding hydrological processes with scarce data in a mountain environmentHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 12 2008A. Chaponnière Abstract Performance of process-based hydrological models is usually assessed through comparison between simulated and measured streamflow. Although necessary, this analysis is not sufficient to estimate the quality and realism of the modelling since streamflow integrates all processes of the water cycle, including intermediate production or redistribution processes such as snowmelt or groundwater flow. Assessing the performance of hydrological models in simulating accurately intermediate processes is often difficult and requires heavy experimental investments. In this study, conceptual hydrological modelling (using SWAT) of a semi-arid mountainous watershed in the High Atlas in Morocco is attempted. Our objective is to analyse whether good intermediate processes simulation is reached when global-satisfying streamflow simulation is possible. First, parameters presenting intercorrelation issues are identified: from the soil, the groundwater and, to a lesser extent, from the snow. Second, methodologies are developed to retrieve information from accessible intermediate hydrological processes. A geochemical method is used to quantify the contribution of a superficial and a deep reservoir to streamflow. It is shown that, for this specific process, the model formalism is not adapted to our study area and thus leads to poor simulation results. A remote-sensing methodology is proposed to retrieve the snow surfaces. Comparison with the simulation shows that this process can be satisfyingly simulated by the model. The multidisciplinary approach adopted in this study, although supported by the hydrological community, is still uncommon. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The influence of elevation error on the morphometrics of channel networks extracted from DEMs and the implications for hydrological modellingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 11 2008John B. Lindsay Abstract Stream network morphometrics have been used frequently in environmental applications and are embedded in several hydrological models. This is because channel network geometry partly controls the runoff response of a basin. Network indices are often measured from channels that are mapped from digital elevation models (DEMs) using automated procedures. Simulations were used in this paper to study the influence of elevation error on the reliability of estimates of several common morphometrics, including stream order, the bifurcation, length, area and slope ratios, stream magnitude, network diameter, the flood magnitude and timing parameters of the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) and the network width function. DEMs of three UK basins, ranging from high to low relief, were used for the analyses. The findings showed that moderate elevation error (RMSE of 1·8 m) can result in significant uncertainty in DEM-mapped network morphometrics and that this uncertainty can be expressed in complex ways. For example, estimates of the bifurcation, length and area ratios and the flood magnitude and timing parameters of the GIUH each displayed multimodal frequency distributions, i.e. two or more estimated values were highly likely. Furthermore, these preferential estimates were wide ranging relative to the ranges typically observed for these indices. The wide-ranging estimates of the two GIUH parameters represented significant uncertainty in the shape of the unit hydrograph. Stream magnitude, network diameter and the network width function were found to be highly sensitive to elevation error because of the difficulty in mapping low-magnitude links. Uncertainties in the width function were found to increase with distance from outlet, implying that hydrological models that use network width contain greater uncertainty in the shape of the falling limb of the hydrograph. In light of these findings, care should be exercised when interpreting the results of analyses based on DEM-mapped stream networks. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Validation of hydrological models for climate scenario simulation: the case of Saguenay watershed in QuebecHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 23 2007Yonas B. Dibike Abstract This paper presents the results of an investigation into the problems associated with using downscaled meteorological data for hydrological simulations of climate scenarios. The influence of both the hydrological models and the meteorological inputs driving these models on climate scenario simulation studies are investigated. A regression-based statistical tool (SDSM) is used to downscale the daily precipitation and temperature data based on climate predictors derived from the Canadian global climate model (CGCM1), and two types of hydrological model, namely the physically based watershed model WatFlood and the lumped-conceptual modelling system HBV-96, are used to simulate the flow regimes in the major rivers of the Saguenay watershed in Quebec. The models are validated with meteorological inputs from both the historical records and the statistically downscaled outputs. Although the two hydrological models demonstrated satisfactory performances in simulating stream flows in most of the rivers when provided with historic precipitation and temperature records, both performed less well and responded differently when provided with downscaled precipitation and temperature data. By demonstrating the problems in accurately simulating river flows based on downscaled data for the current climate, we discuss the difficulties associated with downscaling and hydrological models used in estimating the possible hydrological impact of climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Improvement of the hydrological component of an urban soil,vegetation,atmosphere,transfer modelHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 16 2007A. Lemonsu Abstract A numerical study was conducted on the Rezé suburban catchment (Nantes, France) to evaluate the hydrological component of the town energy balance (TEB) scheme, which simulates in a coupled way the water and energy balances for the urban covers. The catchment is a residential area where hydrological data were continuously collected from 1993 to 1998 by the Laboratoire Central des Ponts et Chaussées (LCPC), notably the runoff in the stormwater drainage network. A 6-year simulation with the TEB and interaction soil,biosphere,atmosphere (ISBA) schemes in off-line mode enabled the comparison of modelled and observed runoff. Some weaknesses of the TEB were uncovered and led to improved parameterization of water exchanges: (1) calibration of the maximum capacity of the rainfall interception reservoir on roads and roofs and (2) inclusion of water infiltration through the roads, according to a simple formulation. The calibration of this water flux gives results that are consistent with direct measurements of water infiltration performed on the Rezé site and from the literature. The new parameterization produces better runoff in terms of timing and magnitude, which are comparable to those obtained by the LCPC with other hydrological models. It shows also the impact of the water infiltration through the roads, corresponding to a water transfer from the TEB to ISBA, on the water balance: the water contents of road, roof and soil reservoirs being modified, the evaporation from artificial surfaces decreases, while the evapotranspiration from natural covers increases. Through the evaporative flux, such a modification of the water balance induces large repercussions on the surface energy balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Multi-variable and multi-site calibration and validation of SWAT in a large mountainous catchment with high spatial variabilityHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 5 2006Wenzhi Cao Abstract Many methods developed for calibration and validation of physically based distributed hydrological models are time consuming and computationally intensive. Only a small set of input parameters can be optimized, and the optimization often results in unrealistic values. In this study we adopted a multi-variable and multi-site approach to calibration and validation of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the Motueka catchment, making use of extensive field measurements. Not only were a number of hydrological processes (model components) in a catchment evaluated, but also a number of subcatchments were used in the calibration. The internal variables used were PET, annual water yield, daily streamflow, baseflow, and soil moisture. The study was conducted using an 11-year historical flow record (1990,2000); 1990,94 was used for calibration and 1995,2000 for validation. SWAT generally predicted well the PET, water yield and daily streamflow. The predicted daily streamflow matched the observed values, with a Nash,Sutcliffe coefficient of 0·78 during calibration and 0·72 during validation. However, values for subcatchments ranged from 0·31 to 0·67 during calibration, and 0·36 to 0·52 during validation. The predicted soil moisture remained wet compared with the measurement. About 50% of the extra soil water storage predicted by the model can be ascribed to overprediction of precipitation; the remaining 50% discrepancy was likely to be a result of poor representation of soil properties. Hydrological compensations in the modelling results are derived from water balances in the various pathways and storage (evaporation, streamflow, surface runoff, soil moisture and groundwater) and the contributions to streamflow from different geographic areas (hill slopes, variable source areas, sub-basins, and subcatchments). The use of an integrated multi-variable and multi-site method improved the model calibration and validation and highlighted the areas and hydrological processes requiring greater calibration effort. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling hydrological management for the restoration of acidified floating fensHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 20 2005Stefan C. Dekker Abstract Wetlands show a large decline in biodiversity. To protect and restore this biodiversity, many restoration projects are carried out. Hydrology in wetlands controls the chemical and biological processes and may be the most important factor regulating wetland function and development. Hydrological models may be used to simulate these processes and to evaluate management scenarios for restoration. HYDRUS2D, a combined saturated,unsaturated groundwater flow and transport model, is presented. This simulates near-surface hydrological processes in an acidified floating fen, with the aim to evaluate the effect of hydrological restoration in terms of conditions for biodiversity. In the acidified floating fen in the nature reserve Ilperveld (The Netherlands), a trench system was dug for the purpose of creating a runoff channel for acid rainwater in wet periods and to enable circum-neutral surface water to enter the fen in dry periods. The model is calibrated against measured conductivity values for a 5 year period. From the model simulations, it was found that lateral flow in the floating raft is limited. Furthermore, the model shows that the best management option is a combination of trenches and inundation, which gave the best soil water quality in the root zone. It is concluded that hydrological models can be used for the calculation of management scenarios in restoration projects. The combined saturated,unsaturated model concept used in this paper is able to incorporate the governing hydrological processes in the wetland root zones. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Modelling the hydrology of a catchment using a distributed and a semi-distributed modelHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 3 2005Ahmed Abu El-Nasr Abstract Various hydrological models exist that describe the phases in the hydrologic cycle either in an empirical, semi-mechanistic or fully mechanistic way. The way and level of detail for the different processes of the hydrologic cycle that needs to be described depends on the objective, the application and the availability of data. In this study the performance of two different models, the fully distributed MIKE SHE model and the semi-distributed SWAT model, was assessed. The aim of the comparative study was to examine if both models are equally able to describe the different phases in the hydrologic cycle of a catchment, given the availability of hydrologic data in the catchment. For the comparison, historic data of the Jeker river basin, situated in the loamy belt region of Belgium, was used. The size of the catchment is 465 km2. The landscape is rolling, the dominant land use is farmland, and the soils vary from sandy-loam to clay-loam. The daily data of a continuous period of 6 years were used for the calibration and validation of both models. The results were obtained by comparing the performance of the two models using a qualitative (graphical) and quantitative (statistical) assessment, such as graphical representation of the observed and simulated river discharge, performance indices, the hydrograph maxima, the baseflow minima, the total accumulated volumes and the extreme value distribution of river flow data. The analysis revealed that both models are able to simulate the hydrology of the catchment in an acceptable way. The calibration results of the two tested models, although they differ in concept and spatial distribution, are quite similar. However, the MIKE SHE model predicts slightly better the overall variation of the river flow. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Statistical downscaling of daily precipitation from observed and modelled atmospheric fieldsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 8 2004Stephen P. Charles Abstract Statistical downscaling techniques have been developed to address the spatial scale disparity between the horizontal computational grids of general circulation models (GCMs), typically 300,500 km, and point-scale meteorological observations. This has been driven, predominantly, by the need to determine how enhanced greenhouse projections of future climate may impact at regional and local scales. As point-scale precipitation is a common input to hydrological models, there is a need for techniques that reproduce the characteristics of multi-site, daily gauge precipitation. This paper investigates the ability of the extended nonhomogeneous hidden Markov model (extended-NHMM) to reproduce observed interannual and interdecadal precipitation variability when driven by observed and modelled atmospheric fields. Previous studies have shown that the extended-NHMM can successfully reproduce the at-site and intersite statistics of daily gauge precipitation, such as the frequency characteristics of wet days, dry- and wet-spell length distributions, amount distributions, and intersite correlations in occurrence and amounts. Here, the extended-NHMM, as fitted to 1978,92 observed ,winter' (May,October) daily precipitation and atmospheric data for 30 rain gauge sites in southwest Western Australia, is driven by atmospheric predictor sets extracted from National Centers for Environmental Prediction,National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for 1958,98 and an atmospheric GCM hindcast run forced by observed 1955,91 sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). Downscaling from the reanalysis-derived predictors reproduces the 1958,98 interannual and interdecadal variability of winter precipitation. Downscaling from the SST-forced GCM hindcast only reproduces the precipitation probabilities of the recent 1978,91 period, with poor performance for earlier periods attributed to inadequacies in the forcing SST data. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Appropriate vertical discretization of Richards' equation for two-dimensional watershed-scale modellingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2004Charles W. Downer Abstract A number of watershed-scale hydrological models include Richards' equation (RE) solutions, but the literature is sparse on information as to the appropriate application of RE at the watershed scale. In most published applications of RE in distributed watershed-scale hydrological modelling, coarse vertical resolutions are used to decrease the computational burden. Compared to point- or field-scale studies, application at the watershed scale is complicated by diverse runoff production mechanisms, groundwater effects on runoff production, runon phenomena and heterogeneous watershed characteristics. An essential element of the numerical solution of RE is that the solution converges as the spatial resolution increases. Spatial convergence studies can be used to identify the proper resolution that accurately describes the solution with maximum computational efficiency, when using physically realistic parameter values. In this study, spatial convergence studies are conducted using the two-dimensional, distributed-parameter, gridded surface subsurface hydrological analysis (GSSHA) model, which solves RE to simulate vadose zone fluxes. Tests to determine if the required discretization is strongly a function of dominant runoff production mechanism are conducted using data from two very different watersheds, the Hortonian Goodwin Creek Experimental Watershed and the non-Hortonian Muddy Brook watershed. Total infiltration, stream flow and evapotranspiration for the entire simulation period are used to compute comparison statistics. The influences of upper and lower boundary conditions on the solution accuracy are also explored. Results indicate that to simulate hydrological fluxes accurately at both watersheds small vertical cell sizes, of the order of 1 cm, are required near the soil surface, but not throughout the soil column. The appropriate choice of approximations for calculating the near soil-surface unsaturated hydraulic conductivity can yield modest increases in the required cell size. Results for both watersheds are quite similar, even though the soils and runoff production mechanisms differ greatly between the two catchments. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Statistical characterization of the spatial variability of soil moisture in a cutover peatlandHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2004Richard M. Petrone Abstract Soil moisture is a significant variable in its importance to the validation of hydrological models, but it is also the one defining variable that ties in all components of the surface energy balance and as such is of major importance to climate models and their surface schemes. Changing the scale of representation (e.g. from the observation to modelling scale) can further complicate the description of the spatial variability in any hydrological system. We examine this issue using soil moisture and vegetation cover data collected at two contrasting spatial scales and at three different times in the snow-free season from a cutover peat bog in Cacouna, Québec. Soil moisture was measured using Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) over 90 000 m2 and 1200 m2 grids, at intervals of 30 and 2 m respectively. Analyses of statistical structure, variance and spatial autocorrelation were conducted on the soil moisture data at different sampling resolutions and over different grid sizes to determine the optimal spatial scale and sampling density at which these data should be represented. Increasing the scale of interest without adequate resolution in the measurement can lead to significant inconsistency in the representation of these variables. Furthermore, a lack of understanding of the nature of the variability of soil moisture at different scales may produce spurious representation in a modelling context. The analysis suggests that in terms of the distribution of soil moisture, the extent of sampling within a grid is not as significant as the density, or spacing, of the measurements. Both the scale and resolution of the sampling scheme have an impact on the mean of the distribution. Only approximately 60% of the spatial pattern in soil moisture of both the large and small grid is persistent over time, suggesting that the pattern of moisture differs for wetting and drying cycles. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Downward approach to hydrological predictionHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 11 2003Murugesu Sivapalan Abstract This paper presents an overview of the ,downward approach' to hydrologic prediction and attempts to provide a context for the papers appearing in this special issue. The downward approach is seen as a necessary counterpoint to the mechanistic ,reductionist' approach that dominates current hydrological model development. It provides a systematic framework to learning from data, including the testing of hypotheses at every step of analysis. It can also be applied in a hierarchical manner: starting from exploring first-order controls in the modelling of catchment response, the model complexity can then be increased in response to deficiencies in reproducing observations at different levels. The remaining contributions of this special issue present a number of applications of the downward approach, including development of parsimonious water balance models with changing time scales by learning from signatures extracted from observed streamflow data at different time scales, regionalization of model parameters, parameterization of effects of sub-grid variability, and standardized statistical approaches to analyse data and to develop model structures. This review demonstrates that the downward approach is not a rigid methodology, but represents a generic framework. It needs to play an increasing role in the future in the development of hydrological models at the catchment scale. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The value of environmental modelling languages for building distributed hydrological modelsHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 14 2002Derek Karssenberg Abstract An evaluation is made of the suitability of programming languages for hydrological modellers to create distributed, process-based hydrological models. Both system programming languages and high-level environmental modelling languages are evaluated based on a list of requirements for the optimal programming language for such models. This is illustrated with a case study, implemented using the PCRaster environmental modelling language to create a distributed, process-based hydrological model based on the concepts of KINEROS-EUROSEM. The main conclusion is that system programming languages are not ideal for hydrologists who are not computer programmers because the level of thinking of these languages is too strongly related to specialized computer science. A higher level environmental modelling language is better in the sense that it operates at the conceptual level of the hydrologist. This is because it contains operators that identify hydrological processes that operate on hydrological entities, such as two-dimensional maps, three-dimensional blocks and time-series. The case study illustrates the advantages of using an environmental modelling language as compared with system programming languages in fulfilling requirements on the level of thinking applied in the language, the reusability of the program code, the lack of technical details in the program, a short model development time and learnability. The study shows that environmental modelling languages are equally good as system programming languages in minimizing programming errors, but are worse in generic application and performance. It is expected that environmental modelling languages will be used in future mainly for development of new models that can be tailored to modelling aims and the field data available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A Streamflow Forecasting Framework using Multiple Climate and Hydrological Models,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2009Paul J. Block Abstract:, Water resources planning and management efficacy is subject to capturing inherent uncertainties stemming from climatic and hydrological inputs and models. Streamflow forecasts, critical in reservoir operation and water allocation decision making, fundamentally contain uncertainties arising from assumed initial conditions, model structure, and modeled processes. Accounting for these propagating uncertainties remains a formidable challenge. Recent enhancements in climate forecasting skill and hydrological modeling serve as an impetus for further pursuing models and model combinations capable of delivering improved streamflow forecasts. However, little consideration has been given to methodologies that include coupling both multiple climate and multiple hydrological models, increasing the pool of streamflow forecast ensemble members and accounting for cumulative sources of uncertainty. The framework presented here proposes integration and offline coupling of global climate models (GCMs), multiple regional climate models, and numerous water balance models to improve streamflow forecasting through generation of ensemble forecasts. For demonstration purposes, the framework is imposed on the Jaguaribe basin in northeastern Brazil for a hindcast of 1974-1996 monthly streamflow. The ECHAM 4.5 and the NCEP/MRF9 GCMs and regional models, including dynamical and statistical models, are integrated with the ABCD and Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure water balance models. Precipitation hindcasts from the GCMs are downscaled via the regional models and fed into the water balance models, producing streamflow hindcasts. Multi-model ensemble combination techniques include pooling, linear regression weighting, and a kernel density estimator to evaluate streamflow hindcasts; the latter technique exhibits superior skill compared with any single coupled model ensemble hindcast. [source] Global Daily Reference Evapotranspiration Modeling and Evaluation,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2008G.B. Senay Abstract:, Accurate and reliable evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are crucial in regional water and energy balance studies. Due to the complex instrumentation requirements, actual ET values are generally estimated from reference ET values by adjustment factors using coefficients for water stress and vegetation conditions, commonly referred to as crop coefficients. Until recently, the modeling of reference ET has been solely based on important weather variables collected from weather stations that are generally located in selected agro-climatic locations. Since 2001, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) has been producing six-hourly climate parameter datasets that are used to calculate daily reference ET for the whole globe at 1-degree spatial resolution. The U.S. Geological Survey Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science has been producing daily reference ET (ETo) since 2001, and it has been used on a variety of operational hydrological models for drought and streamflow monitoring all over the world. With the increasing availability of local station-based reference ET estimates, we evaluated the GDAS-based reference ET estimates using data from the California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS). Daily CIMIS reference ET estimates from 85 stations were compared with GDAS-based reference ET at different spatial and temporal scales using five-year daily data from 2002 through 2006. Despite the large difference in spatial scale (point vs. ,100 km grid cell) between the two datasets, the correlations between station-based ET and GDAS-ET were very high, exceeding 0.97 on a daily basis to more than 0.99 on time scales of more than 10 days. Both the temporal and spatial correspondences in trend/pattern and magnitudes between the two datasets were satisfactory, suggesting the reliability of using GDAS parameter-based reference ET for regional water and energy balance studies in many parts of the world. While the study revealed the potential of GDAS ETo for large-scale hydrological applications, site-specific use of GDAS ETo in complex hydro-climatic regions such as coastal areas and rugged terrain may require the application of bias correction and/or disaggregation of the GDAS ETo using downscaling techniques. [source] AN ADAPTIVE LEARNING FRAMEWORK FOR FORECASTING SEASONAL WATER ALLOCATIONS IN IRRIGATED CATCHMENTSNATURAL RESOURCE MODELING, Issue 3 2010SHAHBAZ KHAN Abstract This paper describes an adaptive learning framework for forecasting end-season water allocations using climate forecasts, historic allocation data, and results of other detailed hydrological models. The adaptive learning framework is based on artificial neural network (ANN) method, which can be trained using past data to predict future water allocations. Using this technique, it was possible to develop forecast models for end-irrigation-season water allocations from allocation data available from 1891 to 2005 based on the allocation level at the start of the irrigation season. The model forecasting skill was further improved by the incorporation of a set of correlating clusters of sea surface temperature (SST) and the Southern oscillation index (SOI) data. A key feature of the model is to include a risk factor for the end-season water allocations based on the start of the season water allocation. The interactive ANN model works in a risk-management context by providing probability of availability of water for allocation for the prediction month using historic data and/or with the incorporation of SST/SOI information from the previous months. All four developed ANN models (historic data only, SST incorporated, SOI incorporated, SST-SOI incorporated) demonstrated ANN capability of forecasting end-of-season water allocation provided sufficient data on historic allocation are available. SOI incorporated ANN model was the most promising forecasting tool that showed good performance during the field testing of the model. [source] Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Météo-France, Toulouse, France, 15,18 June 2009ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2010John Schaake Abstract Hydrologists are increasingly using numerical weather forecasting products as an input to their hydrological models. These products are often generated on relatively coarse scales compared with hydrologically relevant basin units and suffer systematic biases that may have considerable impact when passed through the nonlinear hydrological filters. Therefore, the data need processing before they can be used in hydrological applications. This manuscript summarises discussions and recommendations of the first workshop on Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for Hydrologic Applications held at Meteo France, Toulouse, France, 15,18 June 2008. The recommendations were developed by work groups that considered the following three areas of ensemble prediction: (1) short range (0,2 days), (2) medium range (3 days to 2 weeks), and (3) sub-seasonal and seasonal (beyond 2 weeks). Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Propagation of uncertainty from observing systems and NWP into hydrological models: COST-731 Working Group 2ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS, Issue 2 2010Massimiliano Zappa Abstract The COST-731 action is focused on uncertainty propagation in hydrometeorologica l forecasting chains. Goals and activities of the action Working Group 2 are presented. Five foci for discussion and research have been identified: (1) understand uncertainties, (2) exploring, designing and comparing methodologies for the use of uncertainty in hydrological models, (3) providing feedback on sensitivity to data and forecast providers, (4) transferring methodologies among the different communities involved and (5) setting up test-beds and perform proof-of-concepts. Current examples of different perspectives on uncertainty propagation are presented. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society [source] | ||||||||||||||||