			Home About us Contact

Annual Runoff (annual + runoff)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Engineering	61%
Life Sciences	23%

Selected Abstracts

Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climate

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 19 2008
Matthias Huss
Abstract The future runoff from three highly glacierized alpine catchments is assessed for the period 2007,2100 using a glacio-hydrological model including the change in glacier coverage. We apply scenarios for the seasonal change in temperature and precipitation derived from regional climate models. Glacier surface mass balance and runoff are calculated in daily time-steps using a distributed temperature-index melt and accumulation model. Model components account for changes in glacier extent and surface elevation, evaporation and runoff routing. The model is calibrated and validated using decadal ice volume changes derived from four digital elevation models (DEMs) between 1962 and 2006, and monthly runoff measured at a gauging station (1979,2006). Annual runoff from the drainage basins shows an initial increase which is due to the release of water from glacial storage. After some decades, depending on catchment characteristics and the applied climate change scenario, runoff stabilizes and then drops below the current level. In all climate projections, the glacier area shrinks dramatically. There is an increase in runoff during spring and early summer, whereas the runoff in July and August decreases significantly. This study highlights the impact of glaciers and their future changes on runoff from high alpine drainage basins. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Effects of afforestation on water yield: a global synthesis with implications for policy

GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 10 2005
Kathleen A. Farley
Abstract Carbon sequestration programs, including afforestation and reforestation, are gaining attention globally and will alter many ecosystem processes, including water yield. Some previous analyses have addressed deforestation and water yield, while the effects of afforestation on water yield have been considered for some regions. However, to our knowledge no systematic global analysis of the effects of afforestation on water yield has been undertaken. To assess and predict these effects globally, we analyzed 26 catchment data sets with 504 observations, including annual runoff and low flow. We examined changes in the context of several variables, including original vegetation type, plantation species, plantation age, and mean annual precipitation (MAP). All of these variables should be useful for understanding and modeling the effects of afforestation on water yield. We found that annual runoff was reduced on average by 44% (±3%) and 31% (±2%) when grasslands and shrublands were afforested, respectively. Eucalypts had a larger impact than other tree species in afforested grasslands (P=0.002), reducing runoff (90) by 75% (±10%), compared with a 40% (±3%) average decrease with pines. Runoff losses increased significantly with plantation age for at least 20 years after planting, whether expressed as absolute changes (mm) or as a proportion of predicted runoff (%) (P<0.001). For grasslands, absolute reductions in annual runoff were greatest at wetter sites, but proportional reductions were significantly larger in drier sites (P<0.01 and P<0.001, respectively). Afforestation effects on low flow were similar to those on total annual flow, but proportional reductions were even larger for low flow (P<0.001). These results clearly demonstrate that reductions in runoff can be expected following afforestation of grasslands and shrublands and may be most severe in drier regions. Our results suggest that, in a region where natural runoff is less than 10% of MAP, afforestation should result in a complete loss of runoff; where natural runoff is 30% of precipitation, it will likely be cut by half or more when trees are planted. The possibility that afforestation could cause or intensify water shortages in many locations is a tradeoff that should be explicitly addressed in carbon sequestration programs. [source]

A comprehensive approach to characterization of the nonlinearity of runoff in the headwaters of the Tarim River, western China

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 2 2010
Jianhua Xu
Abstract Nonlinear characteristics of the runoff processes in the headwaters of the Tarim River were identified and evaluated using several selected methods, including wavelet analysis, correlation dimension, and R/S analysis. Time-series of annual data describing runoff, average temperature, and precipitation from 1957 to 2005 were used to construct and test empirical models. The primary findings of this study were as follows: (1) The annual runoff of the headwaters are complex and nonlinear in nature, and they each presented periodic, nonlinear trends at the chosen time scales, chaotic dynamics, and long-memory characteristics. (2) These nonlinear trends appeared to have resulted from the regional climatic changes that occurred during the study period. The periodicity of changes in runoff occurred on an approximately 25-year cycle, which appeared to be correlated with temperature and precipitation cycles. In addition, the annual runoff exhibited a significant, positive correlation with the temperature and precipitation factors at the 4-, 8-, 16-, and 32-year temporal scales. (3) The correlation dimensions of the attractor derived from the runoff time series for the Hotan, Yarkand, and Aksu rivers were all greater than 3·0 and non-integral, implying that all three rivers are dynamic chaotic systems that are sensitive to initial conditions, and that the dynamic modelling of their annual runoff requires at least four independent variables. (4) The computed Hurst exponents indicate that a long-term memory characteristic exists in the annual runoff processes. However, there were some differences observed, with the Aksu and Yarkand rivers demonstrating a persistent trait, and the Hotan River exhibiting an anti-persistent feature. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Implications of global climate change for snowmelt hydrology in the twenty-first century

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 7 2009
Jennifer C. Adam
Abstract For most of the global land area poleward of about 40° latitude, snow plays an important role in the water cycle. The (seasonal) timing of runoff in these areas is especially sensitive to projected losses of snowpack associated with warming trends, whereas projected (annual) runoff volume changes are primarily associated with precipitation changes, and to a lesser extent, with changes in evapotranspiration (ET). Regional studies in the USA (and especially the western USA) suggest that hydrologic adjustments to a warming climate have been ongoing since the mid-twentieth century. We extend the insights extracted from the western USA to the global scale using a physically based hydrologic model to assess the effects of systematic changes in precipitation and temperature on snow-affected portions of the global land area as projected by a suite of global climate models. While annual (and in some cases seasonal) changes in precipitation are a key driver of projected changes in annual runoff, we find, as in the western USA, that projected warming produces strong decreases in winter snow accumulation and spring snowmelt over much of the affected area regardless of precipitation change. Decreased snowpack produces decreases in warm-season runoff in many mid- to high-latitude areas where precipitation changes are either moderately positive or negative in the future projections. Exceptions, however, occur in some high-latitude areas, particular in Eurasia, where changes in projected precipitation are large enough to result in increased, rather than decreased, snow accumulation. Overall, projected changes in snowpack and the timing of snowmelt-derived runoff are largest near the boundaries of the areas that currently experience substantial snowfall, and at least qualitatively, they mirror the character of observed changes in the western USA. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Runoff and peak flow responses to timber harvest and forest age in southern Chile

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2006
Professor Andrés Iroumé
Abstract Runoff and peak flows in three experimental catchments with different forest conditions were analysed in a rainy temperate climate in southern Chile. The hydrological effects of clearcutting a Pinus radiata plantation covering 79·4% of the La Reina catchment were studied by analysing runoff and peak flows in the pre- and post-harvesting periods. Mean annual runoff increased 110% after timber harvesting. Clearcutting generated a 32% mean increase in peak flows. Peak flow and runoff were examined in two adjacent catchments with different forest conditions. The older plantation in Los Ulmos 1 increasingly consumed more water than the younger plantation established at Los Ulmos 2, whereas differences in peak flows between these two catchments were not significant. Runoff and peak flows comparisons not only reflected changes in forest cover, but also the effect of rainfall characteristics during the study periods and the basins' morphologies. Comparisons between pre- and post-harvesting peak discharges must be undertaken with caution, because a previous analysis at La Reina using a partial set of data overestimated changes in peak flows after timber harvesting. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Simulating pan-Arctic runoff with a macro-scale terrestrial water balance model

HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2003
Michael A. Rawlins
Abstract A terrestrial hydrological model, developed to simulate the high-latitude water cycle, is described, along with comparisons with observed data across the pan-Arctic drainage basin. Gridded fields of plant rooting depth, soil characteristics (texture, organic content), vegetation, and daily time series of precipitation and air temperature provide the primary inputs used to derive simulated runoff at a grid resolution of 25 km across the pan-Arctic. The pan-Arctic water balance model (P/WBM) includes a simple scheme for simulating daily changes in soil frozen and liquid water amounts, with the thaw,freeze model (TFM) driven by air temperature, modelled soil moisture content, and physiographic data. Climate time series (precipitation and air temperature) are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis project for the period 1980,2001. P/WBM-generated maximum summer active-layer thickness estimates differ from a set of observed data by an average of 12 cm at 27 sites in Alaska, with many of the differences within the variability (1,) seen in field samples. Simulated long-term annual runoffs are in the range 100 to 400 mm year,1. The highest runoffs are found across northeastern Canada, southern Alaska, and Norway, and lower estimates are noted along the highest latitudes of the terrestrial Arctic in North America and Asia. Good agreement exists between simulated and observed long-term seasonal (winter, spring, summer,fall) runoff to the ten Arctic sea basins (r = 0·84). Model water budgets are most sensitive to changes in precipitation and air temperature, whereas less affect is noted when other model parameters are altered. Increasing daily precipitation by 25% amplifies annual runoff by 50 to 80% for the largest Arctic drainage basins. Ignoring soil ice by eliminating the TFM sub-model leads to runoffs that are 7 to 27% lower than the control run. The results of these model sensitivity experiments, along with other uncertainties in both observed validation data and model inputs, emphasize the need to develop improved spatial data sets of key geophysical quantities (particularly climate time series) to estimate terrestrial Arctic hydrological budgets better. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

Global analysis of runs of annual precipitation and runoff equal to or below the median: run magnitude and severity

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2005
Murray C. Peel
Abstract Fluctuations of wet and dry years have long been investigated in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the second of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the magnitude, also known as the intensity, and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs are investigated. In the first paper the length of dry runs was investigated. Periods of consecutive dry years are associated with drought and the attendant physical and economic stresses that are placed on society. Run magnitudes of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. For both annual precipitation and runoff, run magnitude was found to be predominately related to interannual variability and to a lesser extent skewness. Run magnitude of annual runoff was observed to be greater than that for annual precipitation, due to annual runoff having a higher coefficient of variation than annual precipitation. Continental differences in run magnitude of annual runoff were observed and were consistent with continental differences in interannual variability reported previously. Annual run severity was also investigated and found to be independent of run length and strongly related to run magnitude. These findings differ from previously published work; this difference is primarily due to the methodology of comparing run metrics between stations (used in this paper) rather than at a station (previous research). The relationships between run magnitude, severity and interannual variability highlight the importance of adequately reproducing interannual variability within global climate models for future modelling of drought scenarios, as well as having economic implications for drought relief and management policy-making. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society. [source]

Global analysis of runs of annual precipitation and runoff equal to or below the median: run length

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 7 2004
Murray C. Peel
Abstract The investigation of fluctuations of wet and dry years has a long history in the climatology and hydrology literature. In this, the first of two papers investigating runs of consecutive dry years, the lengths (persistence) of dry runs are investigated. In the second paper the magnitude/intensity and severity (length × magnitude) of dry runs will be investigated. Consecutive dry years are associated with drought, which is a significant physical and economic phenomenon that imposes great stress on ecosystems and societies. Run lengths of consecutive years equal to or below the median were analysed for 3863 precipitation and 1236 runoff stations from around the world. Run lengths were found to be similar across all continents and Köppen climate zones, expect for tropical and arid North Africa (Sahel), which showed a distinct bias toward longer run lengths than any other region of the world. Generally, the run length observed in annual runoff was found to be similar to that observed in annual precipitation for the same location. Both annual precipitation and runoff data were found to be well described by the lag-one autoregressive (AR(1)) model or by white noise. The influence of the El Niño,southern oscillation on run lengths was not observed to be significant. The presence of decadal and multi-decadal oscillations was weakly observed in the results of the precipitation runs analysis. The faintness of the decadal and multi-decadal oscillation signal may be due to the sample sizes not being long enough and/or the runs analysis not being sensitive enough to detect their presence. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source]

Effect of Snow Cover Conditions on the Hydrologic Regime: Case Study in a Pluvial-Nival Watershed, Japan,

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2008
Andrew C. Whitaker
Abstract:, Hydrologic monitoring in a small forested and mountainous headwater basin in Niigata Prefecture has been undertaken since 2000. An important characteristic of the basin is that the hydrologic regime contains pluvial elements year-round, including rain-on-snow, in addition to spring snowmelt. We evaluated the effect of different snow cover conditions on the hydrologic regime by analyzing observed data in conjunction with model simulations of the snowpack. A degree-day snow model is presented and applied to the study basin to enable estimation of the basin average snow water equivalent using air temperature at three representative elevations. Analysis of hydrological time series data and master recession curves showed that flow during the snowmelt season was generated by a combination of ground water flow having a recession constant of 0.018/day and diurnal melt water flow having a recession constant of 0.015/hour. Daily flows during the winter/snowmelt season showed greater persistence than daily flows during the warm season. The seasonal water balance indicated that the ratio of runoff to precipitation during the cold season (December to May) was about 90% every year. Seasonal snowpack plays an important role in defining the hydrologic regime, with winter precipitation and snowmelt runoff contributing about 65% of the annual runoff. The timing of the snowmelt season, indicated by the date of occurrence of the first significant snowmelt event, was correlated with the occurrence of low flow events. Model simulations showed that basin average snow water equivalent reached a peak around mid-February to mid-March, although further validation of the model is required at high elevation sites. [source]

Spatial Calibration and Temporal Validation of Flow for Regional Scale Hydrologic Modeling,

JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 4 2008
C. Santhi
Abstract:, Physically based regional scale hydrologic modeling is gaining importance for planning and management of water resources. Calibration and validation of such regional scale model is necessary before applying it for scenario assessment. However, in most regional scale hydrologic modeling, flow validation is performed at the river basin outlet without accounting for spatial variations in hydrological parameters within the subunits. In this study, we calibrated the model to capture the spatial variations in runoff at subwatershed level to assure local water balance, and validated the streamflow at key gaging stations along the river to assure temporal variability. Ohio and Arkansas-White-Red River Basins of the United States were modeled using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the period from 1961 to 1990. R2 values of average annual runoff at subwatersheds were 0.78 and 0.99 for the Ohio and Arkansas Basins. Observed and simulated annual and monthly streamflow from 1961 to 1990 is used for temporal validation at the gages. R2 values estimated were greater than 0.6. In summary, spatially distributed calibration at subwatersheds and temporal validation at the stream gages accounted for the spatial and temporal hydrological patterns reasonably well in the two river basins. This study highlights the importance of spatially distributed calibration and validation in large river basins. [source]

Ecological impacts of dams, water diversions and river management on floodplain wetlands in Australia

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2000
R.T. KINGSFORD
Abstract Australian floodplain wetlands are sites of high biodiversity that depend on flows from rivers. Darns, diversions and river management have reduced flooding to these wetlands, altering their ecology, and causing the death or poor health of aquatic biota. Four floodplain wetlands (Barmah-Millewa Forest and Moira Marshes, Chowilla floodplain, Macquarie Marshes, Gwydir wetlands) illustrate these effects with successional changes in aquatic vegetation, reduced vegetation health, declining numbers of water-birds and nesting, and declining native fish and invertebrate populations. These effects are likely to be widespread as Australia has at least 446 large dams (>10 m crest height) storing 8.8 × 107 ML (106 L) of water, much of which is diverted upstream of floodplain wetlands. More than 50% of floodplain wetlands on developed rivers may no longer flood. Of all of the river basins in Australia, the Murray-Darling Basin is most affected with dams which can store 103% of annual runoff and 87% of divertible water extracted (1983,84 data). Some floodplain wetlands are now permanent storages. This has changed their biota from one tolerant of a variable flooding regime, to one that withstands permanent flooding. Plans exist to build dams to divert water from many rivers, mainly for irrigation. These plans seldom adequately model subsequent ecological and hydrological impacts to floodplain wetlands. To avoid further loss of wetlands, an improved understanding of the interaction between river flows and floodplain ecology, and investigations into ecological impacts of management practices, is essential. [source]

Ecological impacts of dams, water diversions and river management on floodplain wetlands in Australia

AUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2000
R.T. Kingsford
Abstract Australian floodplain wetlands are sites of high biodiversity that depend on flows from rivers. Dams, diversions and river management have reduced flooding to these wetlands, altering their ecology, and causing the death or poor health of aquatic biota. Four floodplain wetlands (Barmah-Millewa Forest and Moira Marshes, Chowilla floodplain, Macquarie Marshes, Gwydir wetlands) illustrate these effects with successional changes in aquatic vegetation, reduced vegetation health, declining numbers of water-birds and nesting, and declining native fish and invertebrate populations. These effects are likely to be widespread as Australia has at least 446 large dams (>10 m crest height) storing 8.8 × 107 ML (106 L) of water, much of which is diverted upstream of floodplain wetlands. More than 50% of floodplain wetlands on developed rivers may no longer flood. Of all of the river basins in Australia, the Murray-Darling Basin is most affected with dams which can store 103% of annual runoff and 87% of divertible water extracted (1983,84 data). Some floodplain wetlands are now permanent storages. This has changed their biota from one tolerant of a variable flooding regime, to one that withstands permanent flooding. Plans exist to build dams to divert water from many rivers, mainly for irrigation. These plans seldom adequately model subsequent ecological and hydrological impacts to floodplain wetlands. To avoid further loss of wetlands, an improved understanding of the interaction between river flows and floodplain ecology, and investigations into ecological impacts of management practices, is essential. [source]