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Annual Fluctuations (annual + fluctuation)
Selected AbstractsSpatial and temporal variation in the relative contribution of density dependence, climate variation and migration to fluctuations in the size of great tit populationsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2009Vidar Grøtan Summary 1The aim of the present study is to model the stochastic variation in the size of five populations of great tit Parus major in the Netherlands, using a combination of individual-based demographic data and time series of population fluctuations. We will examine relative contribution of density-dependent effects, and variation in climate and winter food on local dynamics as well as on number of immigrants. 2Annual changes in population size were strongly affected by temporal variation in number of recruits produced locally as well as by the number of immigrants. The number of individuals recruited from one breeding season to the next was mainly determined by the population size in year t, the beech crop index (BCI) in year t and the temperature during March,April in year t. The number of immigrating females in year t + 1 was also explained by the number of females present in the population in year t, the BCI in autumn year t and the temperature during April,May in year t. 3By comparing predictions of the population model with the recorded number of females, the simultaneous modelling of local recruitment and immigration explained a large proportion of the annual variation in recorded population growth rates. 4Environmental stochasticity especially caused by spring temperature and BCI did in general contribute more to annual fluctuations in population size than density-dependent effects. Similar effects of climate on local recruitment and immigration also caused covariation in temporal fluctuations of immigration and local production of recruits. 5The effects of various variables in explaining fluctuations in population size were not independent, and the combined effect of the variables were generally non-additive. Thus, the effects of variables causing fluctuations in population size should not be considered separately because the total effect will be influenced by covariances among the explanatory variables. 6Our results show that fluctuations in the environment affect local recruitment as well as annual fluctuations in the number of immigrants. This effect of environment on the interchange of individuals among populations is important for predicting effects of global climate change on the pattern of population fluctuations. [source] Comparative changes in adult vs. juvenile survival affecting population trends of African ungulatesJOURNAL OF ANIMAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2005NORMAN OWEN-SMITH Summary 1Among large mammalian herbivores, juvenile survival tends to vary widely and may thus have a greater influence on population dynamics than the relatively constant survival rates typical of adults. However, previous studies yielding stage-specific survival rates have been mostly on temperate zone ungulates and in environments lacking large predators. 2Annual censuses coupled with assessments of population structure enabled annual survival rates to be estimated for the juvenile, yearling and adult segments of nine ungulate species in South Africa's Kruger National Park. Four of these populations persisted at high abundance after initial increases (zebra, wildebeest, impala and giraffe), while five showed progressive declines during the latter part of the study period (kudu, waterbuck, warthog, sable antelope and tsessebe). 3The magnitude of the reduction in adult survival between periods showing contrasting population trends was similar to or greater than the corresponding change in juvenile survival for five of the nine species. Accordingly alterations in population phase, from increasing to stable or stable to declining, were brought about mostly through reduced survival within the adult segment. Elevated predation risk may have been responsible. 4Estimates were derived of the relative survival rates of juveniles, yearlings and adult segments associated with zero population growth, and the survival differential between adult males and females, for all nine species. Stage-specific survival rates appeared dependent on body mass, but with some anomalies. The sex difference in adult survival showed no obvious relation with sexual size dimorphism. 5For large mammalian herbivores, assessments of relative elasticities of stage-specific survival rates on population growth are problematic for several reasons. Sensitivity to corresponding increments in either survival or mortality rates provides a better basis for ecological or adaptive interpretation. Survival rates of adults seem to vary more over multiyear periods compared with mainly annual fluctuations in juvenile survival. More studies are needed on tropical species and in environments retaining large predators to support generalizations about factors influencing ungulate life-history patterns. [source] Effects of bird predation on arthropod abundance and tree growth across an elevational gradientJOURNAL OF AVIAN BIOLOGY, Issue 4 2010W. Scott Schwenk Considerable uncertainty surrounds the conditions under which birds can cause trophic cascades. In a three-year experiment, we studied the direct and indirect effects of insectivorous birds on arthropod abundance, herbivory, and growth of striped maple Acer pensylvanicum saplings in a northern hardwood forest of central New Hampshire, USA. We manipulated bird predation by erecting exclosures around saplings and directly manipulated herbivory by removing herbivores. We also examined how climate modifies these interactions by replicating the experiment at three locations along an elevational gradient. Effects of bird predation were variable. Overall, mean arthropod biomass was 20% greater on saplings within bird exclosures than on controls (p<0.05). The mean biomass of leaf-chewing herbivores, primarily Lepidoptera larvae, was 25% greater within exclosures but not statistically different from controls. To a lesser degree, mean herbivore damage to foliage within exclosures exceeded that of controls but differences were not significant. We also did not detect significant treatment effects on sapling shoot growth. The high understory vegetation density relative to bird abundance, and low rate of herbivory during the study (mean 5% leaf area removed, controls), may have limited the ability of birds to affect sapling growth. Climate effects operated at multiple scales, resulting in a complex interplay of interactions within the food web. Regional synchrony of climatic conditions resulted in annual fluctuations in herbivore abundance and tree growth that were shared across elevations. At the same time, local environmental variation resulted in site differences in the plant, herbivore, and bird communities. These patterns resulted in a mosaic of top,down strengths across time and space, suggesting an overall pattern of limited effects of birds on plant growth, possibly interspersed with hotspots of trophic cascades. [source] Oscillating vegetation dynamics in a wet heathlandJOURNAL OF VEGETATION SCIENCE, Issue 1 2005Katharina E. Urban Abstract. Question: The significance of disturbances caused by periodical inundation was investigated with respect to its effects on vegetation dynamics, species richness and fluctuations, and to the relevance of certain plant properties. Location and Method: At a sod-cut stand within nutrient-poor inland sand dunes, permanent plots along a transect were surveyed over a period of up to nine years after sod cutting. Results: In contrast to never inundated plots, periodically inundated plots were characterized by low vegetation cover and by high numbers of species belonging to many different communities, each of them with a low cover. Periodical inundations favoured the presence of pioneers, species tolerant of disturbances, species adapted to wet conditions and stoloni-ferous species. Furthermore, annual fluctuations of species within each plot were higher and most species occurred only sporadically. Discussion: A comprehensive model is presented describing the relevant processes identified in the littoral zone. Changing water tables result in the creation of gaps. The re-colonization of these gaps follows mainly from vegetative regeneration and less to the dispersion of diaspores. Highest species numbers in the zone of moderate disturbances result from a high rate of re-colonization in spite of local extinctions following each disturbance event. It is suggested that colonization abilities are among the most important features for species occurrence at a site rich in disturbances (more important than competitive abilities and more important than a slow rate of displacement). For nature conservation such sites are very important, because they allow (rare) pioneer species to survive for longer periods of time. [source] Cyclic voles, prey switching in red fox, and roe deer dynamics , a test of the alternative prey hypothesisOIKOS, Issue 2 2003Petter Kjellander Medium-sized predators sometimes switch to alternative prey species as their main prey declines. Our objective of this study was to test the alternative prey hypothesis for a medium sized predator (red fox, Vulpes vulpes), a small cyclically fluctuating main prey (microtine voles) and larger alternative prey (roe deer fawns, Capreolus capreolus). We used long-term time series (28 years) on voles, red fox and roe deer from the Grimsö Wildlife Research Area (59°40,N, 15°25,E) in south-central Sweden to investigate interspecific relationships in the annual fluctuations in numbers of the studied species. Annual variation in number of roe deer fawns in autumn was significantly and positively related to vole density and significantly and negatively related to the number of fox litters in the previous year. In years of high vole density, predation on roe deer fawns was small, but in years of low vole density predation was more severe. The time lag between number of fox litters and predation on fawns was due to the time lag in functional response of red fox in relation to voles. This study demonstrates for the first time that the alternative prey hypothesis is applicable to the system red fox, voles and roe deer fawns. [source] Seed supply as a limiting factor for granivorous bird assemblages in the Monte Desert, ArgentinaAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2001Pedro G. Blendinger Abstract Seed availability may limit the size of granivorous bird populations, particularly in desert environments. Seasonal and annual fluctuations in the abundance of granivorous birds were studied at three sites in the Northern Monte Desert, Argentina. The way in which these changes were related to seed supply was also studied. Granivore abundance and biomass, as well as seed abundance, were greater in winter. Changes in total granivore abundance were mostly because of variations in numbers of the most mobile bird species, all of which were found to have similar patterns of variation in their abundance. Evidence suggests that during the non-breeding season, the most mobile species are able to track patches of high seed availability over long distances, whereas the abundance of less vagile species largely depends on the local ecological conditions. Seed supply is a proximate factor that limits the abundance of granivorous birds in the Monte Desert during the winter, but does not limit species richness. Granivore abundance was not correlated with seed supply in spring. [source] | ||||||||||