Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
House Prices (house + price)
Selected AbstractsBOOM BUST: HOUSE PRICES, BANKING AND THE DEPRESSION OF 2010ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, Issue 4 2005John Calverley No abstract is available for this article. [source] Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and ExpectationsECONOMICA, Issue 301 2009ORAZIO P. ATTANASIO Over much of the past 25 years, house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronized. Three main hypotheses for this have been proposed: increases in house prices raise household wealth and so their consumption; house price growth reduces credit constraints by increasing the collateral available to homeowners; and house prices and consumption are together influenced by common factors. Using microeconomic data, we find that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, contradicting the wealth channel. We suggest that common causality has been the most important factor linking house prices and consumption. [source] The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing MarketsREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2006Joshua Gallin Many in the housing literature argue that house prices and income are cointegrated. I show that the data do not support this view. Standard tests using 27 years of national-level data do not find evidence of cointegration. However, standard tests for cointegration have low power, especially in small samples. I use panel-data tests for cointegration that are more powerful than their time-series counterparts to test for cointegration in a panel of 95 metro areas over 23 years. Using a bootstrap approach to allow for cross-correlations in city-level house-price shocks, I show that even these more powerful tests do not reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Thus the error-correction specification for house prices and income commonly found in the literature may be inappropriate. [source] Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime-Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House PricesREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2003Gordon W. Crawford While price changes on any particular home are difficult to predict, aggregate home price changes are forecastable. In this context, this paper compares the forecasting performance of three types of univariate time series models: ARIMA, GARCH and regime-switching. The underlying intuition behind regime-switching models is that the series of interest behaves differently depending on the realization of an unobservable regime variable. Regime-switching models are a compelling choice for real estate markets that have historically displayed boom and bust cycles. However, we find that, while regime-switching models can perform better in-sample, simple ARIMA models generally perform better in out-of-sample forecasting. [source] House Prices and InflationREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2002Ali Anari The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968,2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. [source] Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-Sales Measures,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 269 2009JAMES HANSEN House prices are difficult to measure due to changes in the composition of properties sold through time and changes in the quality of housing. I explore whether these issues affect simple measures of house prices, and whether regression-based measures provide an accurate alternative to measuring pure house price changes in Australia. Using unit record data for Australia's three largest cities, regression-based approaches provide a more accurate estimate of pure price changes than a median, and are comparable, with around half of the variation in prices growth explained. These results confirm that regression-based measures are useful for measuring house price changes in Australia. [source] Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And EvidenceTHE MANCHESTER SCHOOL, Issue 1 2003Matteo Iacoviello We analyse the impact of financial liberalization on the link between monetary policy and house prices. We present a simple model of a small open economy subjectto credit constraints. The model shows that the higher the degree of financial liberalizationis, the stronger is the impact of interest rate shocks on house prices. We then usevector autoregressions to study the role of monetary policy shocks in house price fluctuations in Finland, Sweden and the UK, characterized by financial liberalizationepisodes over the last 20 years. We find that the response of house prices to interestrate surprises is bigger and more persistent in periods characterized by more liberalized financial markets. [source] Do Sales Prices Overstate Underlying House Prices in Market Downturns?CANADIAN JOURNAL OF ADMINISTRATIVE SCIENCES, Issue 4 2002Evidence from the Canadian House Price Crash of 199 Over the last decade there has been a mounting realization that the quality-adjusted price of properties that sell may be quite different from the quality-adjusted price of all properties (Gatzlaff & Haurin, 1998). The difference is apt to be especially marked during downturns. Dependence on price indexes based on transactions data could result in overoptimistic appraisals by mortgage lenders during the early quarters of downturns. This paper provides evidence on this issue by examining the residential real estate crash at the start of the 1990s in Canadian cities, especially Toronto. The plunge in prices estimated here for Toronto is 17%. We estimate the drop in the transactions price using MLS data, which are not quality adjusted, supplemented by Royal LePage data, which are. We estimate the drop in the price of houses in the stock using hedonic indexes based on home owners' valuations; outlier observations are cut from the sample on the basis of the DFFITS criterion. The hypothesis of equality of the drop shown by the two measures is strongly rejected, for Toronto, and is also rejected for several other cities. Résumé Au cours de la dernière décennie, on s'est progressivement rendu-compte du fait que le prix, ajusté pour la qualité, des maisons vendues peut être différent du prix, ajusté pour la qualité, des maisons en général (Gatzlaff & Haurin, 1998). La différence entre ces prix est particulièrement marquée en période de marasme. La dépendance sur des indexes de prix basés sur des données transactionnelles peut amener les prêteurs hypothécaires à faire des évaluations trop optimistes durant les premiers trimestres d'une période de marasme. L'article qui suit s'interroge sur la justesse de cette hypothèse en étudiant l'effondrement du marché immobilier au début des années 90 dans des grandes villes canadiennes, en particulier, dans la ville de Toronto. Nous estimons que la chute des prix à Toronto s'élève à 17 %. Nous évaluons la chute des prix de transactions immobilières à partir d'une banque de données MLS, qui n'est pas ajustée pour la qualité, et nous ajoutons celles-ci à d'autres données de Royal LePage, qui elles sont ajustées pour la qualité. Nous évaluons la chute des prix des maisons dans l'inventaire à l'aide d'indicateurs hédoniques basés sur les évaluations des propriétaires; les données excentrées sont enlevées de l'échantillon à partir du critère DFFITS. L'hypothèse de l'égalité des chutes de prix indiquée dans les deux mesures ne s'applique absolument pas à Toronto, ni à plusieurs autres villes. [source] MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLEJOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, Issue 2 2009Balázs Égert Abstract This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission , as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE , it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area. [source] Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-Sales Measures,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 269 2009JAMES HANSEN House prices are difficult to measure due to changes in the composition of properties sold through time and changes in the quality of housing. I explore whether these issues affect simple measures of house prices, and whether regression-based measures provide an accurate alternative to measuring pure house price changes in Australia. Using unit record data for Australia's three largest cities, regression-based approaches provide a more accurate estimate of pure price changes than a median, and are comparable, with around half of the variation in prices growth explained. These results confirm that regression-based measures are useful for measuring house price changes in Australia. [source] Is the housing market set to fall?ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 4 2001Article first published online: 16 DEC 200 Some analysts have suggested that house prices are set to collapse, particularly in the London area. These conclusions are generally based on a rather simple analysis of house price to income ratios. We argue that this is misleading and there is little evidence to suggest a collapse in the market. [source] Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and ExpectationsECONOMICA, Issue 301 2009ORAZIO P. ATTANASIO Over much of the past 25 years, house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronized. Three main hypotheses for this have been proposed: increases in house prices raise household wealth and so their consumption; house price growth reduces credit constraints by increasing the collateral available to homeowners; and house prices and consumption are together influenced by common factors. Using microeconomic data, we find that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, contradicting the wealth channel. We suggest that common causality has been the most important factor linking house prices and consumption. [source] Listing Price, Time on Market, and Ultimate Selling Price: Causes and Effects of Listing Price ChangesREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2002John R. Knight Information about price changes during a home's marketing period is typically missing from data used to investigate the listing price, selling price, and selling time relationship. This paper incorporates price revision information into the study of this relationship. Using a maximum-likelihood probit model, we examine the determinants of list price changes and find evidence consistent with the theory of pricing behavior under demand uncertainty. Homes most likely to undergo list price changes are those with high initial markups and vacant homes, while homes with unusual features are the least likely to experience a price revision. We also explore the impact of missing price change information on estimating a representative model of house price and market time. Our results suggest that mispricing the home in the initial listing is costly to the seller in both time and money. Homes with large percentage changes in list price take longer to sell and ultimately sell at lower prices. [source] LAND USE PLANNING: PUBLIC OR PRIVATE CHOICE?ECONOMIC AFFAIRS, Issue 2 2003Mark Pennington Focusing on house prices and residential densities, this paper offers a comparative institutions account of the likely performance of public and private land use planning regimes. The analysis suggests that whilst far from ,perfect,' a system of private land use planning is likely to offer a more effective way of balancing the costs and benefits of land use change than a government-driven system. [source] Can the recovery in house prices be sustained?ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 3 2010Article first published online: 26 JUL 2010 First page of article [source] Housing Wealth and UK ConsumptionECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 4 2006Article first published online: 13 NOV 200 There is widespread disagreement about the role of housing wealth in explaining consumption. However, much of the empirical literature is marred by poor controls for the common drivers both of house prices and consumption, such as income, income growth expectations, interest rates, credit supply conditions, other assets and indicators of income uncertainty (e.g. changes in the unemployment rate). For instance, while the easing of credit supply conditions is usually followed by a house price boom, failure to control for the direct effect of credit liberalisation on consumption can over-estimate the effect of housing wealth or collateral on consumption. This paper (Janine Aron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphyi, October 2006) estimates an empirical model for UK consumption from 1972 to 2005, grounded in theory, and with more complete empirical controls than hitherto used. [source] Migration within England and Wales and the Housing MarketECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 3 2005Article first published online: 27 JUL 200 Economic conditions exert a strong influence on regional migration. On the one hand, strong labour market conditions, as exemplified by low unemployment rates and high earnings, draw migrants into regions. On the other hand, strong housing market conditions can prevent movement since commuting may often be an alternative to migration. This can be thought of as giving rise to a migration equilibrium where high house prices choke off migration caused by strong labour market conditions. Expected capital gains in housing, however, can offset high levels of house prices, an effect ignored in previous literature. Migration can also be influenced more directly by the availability of housing relative to population without this being mediated through prices. This paper, by Gavin Cameron, John Muellbauer and Anthony Murphy, presents evidence on inter-regional net and gross migration between the regions of England and Wales that is broadly in accord with these expectations. [source] UK Household Debt: A Threat to Growth or Stability?ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 1 2005Article first published online: 2 FEB 200 The liberalisation of credit constraints in the 1970s for UK consumers has had important implications for the housing market and consumer spending. This paper by John Muellbauer1 examines the factors that have driven soaring consumer debt and house price levels; in particular those observed since the mid-1990s. By relying on recent econometric evidence and trends in credit availability, real income per head, nominal and real after tax mortgage rates, measures of perceived risk and broad demographic trends, it also analyses the prospects for house prices, mortgage debt and unsecured debt over the coming years. The outlook is for a ,soft landing' in the housing market and associated declines in the rate of growth of consumer debt, which, although probably not smooth, does suggest the underlying situation is more benign and less crisis-prone than it was in 1988,89. [source] Mortgage credit conditions in the UKECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 3 2002John Muellbauer It is widely perceived that credit conditions for UK consumers, particularly in the mortgage market, have been radically liberalized since the 1970s. The implications for the housing market and consumer spending have been important. This article by John Muellbauer draws on a 1997 paper by the author which examined data from the Survey of Mortgage Lenders to learn, from information about loan-to-value ratios of first-time buyers, classified by region, about changes in mortgage credit conditions. By controlling for economic and demographic influences on credit conditions, a single time-varying index of mortgage credit conditions was extracted from these SML data. This index rises in the 1980s, peaking towards the end of the decade. It retraces part of its rise in the early 1990s before rising again by 1995 to a level not far below the previous peak. The article considers whether more recent data suggest a further liberalisation of mortgage credit conditions. It draws on joint research with others to discuss possible implications for consumer spending, house prices, the volume of property transactions and mortgage defaults. [source] Is the housing market set to fall?ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, Issue 4 2001Article first published online: 16 DEC 200 Some analysts have suggested that house prices are set to collapse, particularly in the London area. These conclusions are generally based on a rather simple analysis of house price to income ratios. We argue that this is misleading and there is little evidence to suggest a collapse in the market. [source] PRICE AND EFFICIENCY EFFECTS OF TAXES AND SUBSIDIES FOR AUSTRALIAN HOUSINGECONOMIC PAPERS: A JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS AND POLICY, Issue 2 2007PETER ABELSON This paper quantifies the major subsidies and taxes that affect housing, the impacts on house prices and housing consumption, and the efficiency effects. Private housing receives an estimated net subsidy of $6.3 billion per annum. Most of this subsidy accrues to homeowners, who as a group receive about an 8% subsidy on imputed gross rentals. The rental sector receives a subsidy of approximately 0.4% of rents. On plausible (unitary elasticity) demand and supply assumptions, the homeowner subsidy increases all housing prices by about 2% and total housing consumption by about 2%, with the rise in consumption by home owners more than offsetting the fall in consumption by renters. The housing subsidy produces an estimated deadweight loss from expenditure on renovations of about $100 million per annum. However, contrary to previous work, the paper finds that the housing subsidy produces welfare gains from expenditure on new housing in the order of $187 million a year. This arises because the subsidy offsets the over-regulated supply of new housing. Transaction taxes on housing have a separate deadweight loss of $375 million per annum. Also, the unequal treatment of homeowners and renters creates a small annual deadweight loss. [source] House Price Shocks and Household Indebtedness in the United KingdomECONOMICA, Issue 307 2010RICHARD DISNEY We use household panel data to explore the link between changes in house prices and household indebtedness (both secured on housing assets and unsecured) in the United Kingdom. We show that households which are borrowing-constrained by a lack of housing equity as collateral make greater use of unsecured debt such as credit cards or personal loans. In response to rising house prices, which relax this constraint, such households are more likely to refinance and to increase their indebtedness relative to unconstrained households. However, for most households, house price movements appear to have little impact on indebtedness. [source] Booms and Busts: Consumption, House Prices and ExpectationsECONOMICA, Issue 301 2009ORAZIO P. ATTANASIO Over much of the past 25 years, house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronized. Three main hypotheses for this have been proposed: increases in house prices raise household wealth and so their consumption; house price growth reduces credit constraints by increasing the collateral available to homeowners; and house prices and consumption are together influenced by common factors. Using microeconomic data, we find that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, contradicting the wealth channel. We suggest that common causality has been the most important factor linking house prices and consumption. [source] Excess Money Growth and Inflation Dynamics,INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, Issue 3 2007Barbara Roffia This paper analyses the short-run impact of periods of strong monetary growth on inflation dynamics for 15 industrialized economies. We find that when robust money growth is accompanied by large increases in stock and house prices and loose credit conditions, the probability of recording an inflationary outburst over a three-year horizon is significantly increased. In contrast, significant money stock expansions that are not associated with sustained credit increases and strong dynamics in other asset prices seem to be less likely to have inflationary consequences and are thus less worrying from a policy perspective. [source] The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing MarketsREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 3 2006Joshua Gallin Many in the housing literature argue that house prices and income are cointegrated. I show that the data do not support this view. Standard tests using 27 years of national-level data do not find evidence of cointegration. However, standard tests for cointegration have low power, especially in small samples. I use panel-data tests for cointegration that are more powerful than their time-series counterparts to test for cointegration in a panel of 95 metro areas over 23 years. Using a bootstrap approach to allow for cross-correlations in city-level house-price shocks, I show that even these more powerful tests do not reject the hypothesis of no cointegration. Thus the error-correction specification for house prices and income commonly found in the literature may be inappropriate. [source] UK Fixed Rate Repayment Mortgage and Mortgage Indemnity ValuationREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 2 2002José A. Azevedo-Pereira We use a mean-reverting interest rate model and a lognormal house price diffusion model to evaluate British fixed rate repayment mortgage contracts with (embedded) default and prepayment options. The model also provides values for capped mortgage indemnity guarantees and the corresponding (residual) lender's coinsurance. Since the partial differential equation incorporating the general features of these mortgage contracts does not have a closed-form solution, an explicit finite difference method is used for the valuation (and sensitivity) results, with solution improvements to deal with error bounds. Then we provide graphical representations of each mortgage component as a function of house prices and interest rate levels, along with interpretations of the analysis. We calculate precisely the lender's (residual) exposure to house price risk, given the borrower's options, house and interest rate uncertainty, and customary mortgage indemnity insurance for high loan/collateral ratio mortgages. [source] House Prices and InflationREAL ESTATE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2002Ali Anari The present paper examines the long-run impact of inflation on homeowner equity by investigating the relationship between house prices and the prices of nonhousing goods and services, rather than return series and inflation rates as in previous empirical studies on the inflation hedging ability of real estate. There are two reasons for this methodological departure from prior practice: (1) while the total return on housing cannot be accurately measured, the total return on housing is fully reflected in housing prices, and (2) given that using returns or differencing a time series leads to a loss of long-run information contained in the series, valuable long-run information can be captured by using prices. Also, unlike previous related studies, we exclude housing costs from goods and services prices to avoid potential bias in estimating how inflation affects housing prices. Monthly data series are collected for existing and for new house prices as well as the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1968,2000. Based on both autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models and recursive regressions, the empirical results yield estimated Fisher coefficients that are consistently greater than one over the sample period. Thus, we infer that house prices are a stable inflation hedge in the long run. [source] Population Ageing and House Prices in AustraliaTHE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2010Ross Guest This article assesses the effect of population ageing on housing consumption and house prices. Using two approaches, this article finds that the ageing of the population may cause average real house prices to be between 3 and 27 per cent lower than they otherwise would be over the period 2008,2050. The first approach is an econometric estimation of house prices for Australia over the period 1980,2008. The second approach is a simulation of a life cycle-optimising model with representative overlapping generations. [source] The Real Story of Housing Prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 3 2005Peter Abelson Despite the popular and public policy interest in housing prices, there have been few reliable published data for housing prices in Australia. In this article we aim to provide an authoritative account of prices for houses and apartments (units) in Australia from 1970 to 2003. Where possible we draw on data from land title offices or on studies that draw on these data, but we also draw on supplementary data in some cases. The first part of the article describes the major data sources of Australian house prices. The main body of the article provides our best estimates of median house and unit prices and real price indices in the capital cities and in the rest of Australia along with explanations for their derivations. We also estimate how improvements in housing quality have influenced real house prices. [source] Australian House Prices: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat-Sales Measures,THE ECONOMIC RECORD, Issue 269 2009JAMES HANSEN House prices are difficult to measure due to changes in the composition of properties sold through time and changes in the quality of housing. I explore whether these issues affect simple measures of house prices, and whether regression-based measures provide an accurate alternative to measuring pure house price changes in Australia. Using unit record data for Australia's three largest cities, regression-based approaches provide a more accurate estimate of pure price changes than a median, and are comparable, with around half of the variation in prices growth explained. These results confirm that regression-based measures are useful for measuring house price changes in Australia. [source] | ||||||||||