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Historical Changes (historical + change)
Selected AbstractsRELIGIOUS CULTURE AND HISTORICAL CHANGE: VATICAN II ON RELIGIOUS FREEDOMTHE HEYTHROP JOURNAL, Issue 5 2008M. JOHN FARRELLY O.S.B. At Vatican II and since Vatican II there have been Catholics who have held that the Council's teaching on religious freedom is in contradiction to the Church's earlier teaching and practice. The Council defended it as a legitimate development of doctrine in part through claiming that changing human experience in history shows us only gradually what human dignity entails, and the Church learns from this experience. True, the Council's teaching is in part a denial of its earlier teaching and practice. The present article defends the legitimacy of this development through showing that there is a change of paradigm by which the Church now views this issue, a change that includes both continuity and discontinuity. This reliance on what is revealed to us by changing human experience is accepted by the Church only when it sees it as critically evaluated by an adequate philosophy and as in accord with Christian revelation, but its acceptance moves us to a growth in our understanding of revelation itself. [source] Historical changes in the phenology of British Odonata are related to climateGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 5 2007CHRISTOPHER HASSALL Abstract Responses of biota to climate change take a number of forms including distributional shifts, behavioural changes and life history changes. This study examined an extensive set of biological records to investigate changes in the timing of life history transitions (specifically emergence) in British Odonata between 1960 and 2004. The results show that there has been a significant, consistent advance in phenology in the taxon as a whole over the period of warming that is mediated by life history traits. British odonates significantly advanced the leading edge (first quartile date) of the flight period by a mean of 1.51 ±0.060 (SEM, n=17) days per decade or 3.08±1.16 (SEM, n=17) days per degree rise in temperature when phylogeny is controlled for. This study represents the first review of changes in odonate phenology in relation to climate change. The results suggest that the damped temperature oscillations experienced by aquatic organisms compared with terrestrial organisms are sufficient to evoke phenological responses similar to those of purely terrestrial taxa. [source] Simulating the response of a closed-basin lake to recent climate changes in tropical West Africa (Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana)HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 13 2007Timothy M. Shanahan Abstract Historical changes in the level of Lake Bosumtwi, Ghana, have been simulated using a catchment-scale hydrological model in order to assess the importance of changes in climate and land use on lake water balance on a monthly basis for the period 1939,2004. Several commonly used models for computing evaporation in data-sparse regions are compared, including the Penman, the energy budget, and the Priestley,Taylor methods. Based on a comparison with recorded lake level variations, the model with the energy-budget evaporation model subcomponent is most effective at reproducing observed lake level variations using regional climate records. A sensitivity analysis using this model indicates that Lake Bosumtwi is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, cloudiness and temperature. However, the model is also sensitive to changes in runoff related to vegetation, and this factor needs to be considered in simulating lake level variations. Both interannual and longer-term changes in lake level over the last 65 years appear to have been caused primarily by changes in precipitation, though the model also suggests that the drop in lake level over the last few decades has been moderated by changes in cloudiness and temperature over that time. Based on its effectiveness at simulating the magnitude and rate of lake level response to changing climate over the historical record, this model offers a potential future opportunity to examine the palaeoclimatic factors causing past lake level fluctuations preserved in the geological record at Lake Bosumtwi. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Historical changes in lake ice-out dates as indicators of climate change in New England, 1850,2000,INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 15 2002Glenn A. Hodgkins Abstract Various studies have shown that changes over time in spring ice-out dates can be used as indicators of climate change. Ice-out dates from 29 lakes in New England (USA) with 64 to 163 years of record were assembled and analysed for this study. Ice-out dates have become significantly earlier in New England since the 1800s. Changes in ice-out dates between 1850 and 2000 were 9 days and 16 days in the northern/mountainous and southern regions of New England respectively. The changes in the ice-out data over time were very consistent within each of the two regions of New England, and more consistent than four air-temperature records in each region. The ice-out dates of the two regions had a different response to changes in air temperature. The inferred late winter,early spring air-temperature warming in both regions of New England since 1850, based on linear regression analysis, was about 1.5°C. Published in 2002 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Bread, Cheese and Genocide: Imagining the Destruction of Peoples in Medieval Western EuropeHISTORY, Issue 307 2007LEN SCALES Western European society in the middle ages is generally perceived as lying, in its modes of thought and action, far remote from those acts of mass ethnic destruction which have been a recurrent element in world history since the early twentieth century. Yet medieval Europeans too were capable of envisaging the violent obliteration of peoples. Indeed, the view that such acts had occurred in times past and were liable to occur again was deeply embedded in medieval thought and assumption. For some commentators, the destruction of certain peoples was inseparable from the making of others, an essential motor of historical change, underpinned by biblical narratives of divine election and condemnation. Such notions constituted a matrix within which medieval writers interpreted real acts of social and political violence, the scale and the ethnic foundations of which they were thus naturally inclined to inflate. Nevertheless, their belief in the recurrent historical reality of ethnic destruction was, in their own terms, well founded , although medieval conceptions of what constituted the undoing of peoples were broader than most modern definitions of ,genocide'. By the later middle ages, moreover, government was increasingly perceived , not without justification , as a powerful agent for remaking the ethnic map. [source] A Critique of Occidental Geist: Embedded Historical Culturalism in the Works of Hegel, Weber and HuntingtonJOURNAL OF HISTORICAL SOCIOLOGY, Issue 1 2006FETHI AÇIKEL Hegel's contribution to the philosophy of history is most clearly seen where he introduces a theory of historical development based on the secularisation of Christian cosmology. With Hegel, the Spirit (Geist), previously theologically understood, gradually becomes the embodiment of historical development. In the Hegelian vocabulary, the phenomenology of religion is formulated along with the theory of historical progress. In this article, I will argue that the question of historical development has been continuously elaborated in a culturalist fashion in works of Friedrich Hegel, Max Weber and Samuel Huntington as those scholars, through different intellectual traditions, essentialises the spiritual backgrounds of world religions and ties the phenomenology of religion with the philosophy of history in their historical analyses. This paper will argue that these scholars, by relying on the idealised images of religions and particularly of the Occidental Spirit, subtly elaborate the historical culturalist notion of development within Western thought. By arguing for an inherent link between religion and development, these scholars implicitly institutionalize a Eurocentric understanding of Western Christianity and the Occidental path of development within mainstream social theory. Be they philosophical (Hegel), sociological (Weber) or political (Huntington), the historical culturalism of these approaches shape our understanding of historical change, and ironically, instead of countering the excesses of crude materialism, they lead social theory into a form of Eurocentic historical culturalism. [source] Language Acquisition and Language Change: Inter-relationshipsLINGUISTICS & LANGUAGE COMPASS (ELECTRONIC), Issue 5 2007David Lightfoot Children acquire a mature language system and sometimes this system differs from that of their parents. This is a significant part of language change and understanding acquisition is key to understanding this kind of change in people's internal grammars. We outline an approach to language acquisition that is based on children finding cues and microcues expressed in the input they are exposed to. This enables us to understand historical change in grammars: change in external language sometimes triggers a new internal grammar as cues come to be expressed differently. We bring together work on language variation, acquisition, and change, show how these three areas are mutually dependent, and how empirical work in one area may enrich understanding more generally, opening the way to new kinds of empirical work. [source] A Neo-Boasian Conception of Cultural BoundariesAMERICAN ANTHROPOLOGIST, Issue 3 2004IRA BASHKOW For the past 30 years, anthropology's critics have repeatedly questioned the notion of "cultural boundaries," arguing that concepts of culture inappropriately posit stable and bounded "islands" of cultural distinctiveness in an ever-changing world of transnational cultural "flows." This issue remains an Achilles' heel,or at least a recurring inflamed tendon,of anthropology. However, in the conception of boundaries, we still have much to learn from Boasian anthropologists, who conceived of boundaries not as barriers to outside influence or to historical change, but as cultural distinctions that were irreducibly plural, perspectival, and permeable. In this article, I retheorize and extend the Boasians' open concept of cultural boundaries, emphasizing how people's own ideas of "the foreign",and the "own" versus the "other" distinction,give us a way out of the old conundrum in which the boundedness of culture, as conceived in spatial terms, seems to contradict the open-ended nature of cultural experience. [source] Reclaiming Legitimacy in ChinaPOLITICS & POLICY, Issue 3 2010HEIKE HOLBIG The contemporary politics of China reflect an ongoing effort by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to reclaim the right to rule in light of the consequences of economic development, international pressures, and historical change. China's regime stands out within the Asian region for its success in the effort of adapting to change and ensuring its continuity. Focusing on changes in China's elite discourse during the reform period and particularly during the last decade, the aim of this article is to elaborate the relative importance of various sources of legitimacy as they are shifting over time, as well as inherent dilemmas and limitations. There is evidence of an agile, responsive, and creative party effort to relegitimate the postrevolutionary regime through economic performance, nationalism, ideology, culture, governance, and democracy. At the same time, the study finds a clear shift in emphasis from an earlier economic-nationalistic approach to a more ideological-institutional approach. La política contemporánea China refleja un esfuerzo sostenido del Partido Comunista Chino por continuar ejerciendo el derecho de gobernar a la luz de las consecuencias del desarrollo económico, las presiones internacionales, y el cambio histórico. El régimen Chino se destaca dentro de la región de Asia por su éxito en el esfuerzo de adaptarse al cambio y asegurar su continuidad. Centrándonos en los cambios en el discurso de la elite China durante el periodo de reforma y particularmente durante la última década, el objetivo de este artículo es el de detallar la relativa importancia de las diferentes fuentes de legitimidad y sus variaciones en el tiempo, así como los dilemas y limitaciones inherentes. Existe evidencia de un esfuerzo ágil, sensible y creativo para relegitimar el régimen post-revolucionario a partir del desempeño económico, el nacionalismo, la ideología, la cultura, un buen gobierno, y la democracia. De la misma forma, este estudio encuentra un cambio claro en el énfasis del régimen de un enfoque económico-nacionalista a uno ideológico-institucional. [source] Monitoring the impact of climate change on biodiversity: The challenge of megadiverse Mediterranean climate ecosystemsAUSTRAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2010IAN ABBOTT Abstract The Mediterranean climate regions of Western Australia and South Africa are recognized as global hot spots of diversity. Both are threatened by climate changes that are projected to have significant impacts on the quantity and variability of rainfall and affect key ecosystem drivers (e.g. fire regimes). This poses significant challenges to monitoring programs designed to detect these impacts. Effective monitoring of the impact of climate change on biodiversity (rather than individual species) requires a cross-disciplinary, coordinated, focused and integrated approach. Ideally, this should involve a multidisciplinary team of specialists working to a common plan on the same set of plots. The contributions of ,citizen scientists' are potentially useful if well managed. Biodiversity per se (across all kingdoms of life, and including the levels of the gene, population and community) should be monitored, especially key species interactions and processes. Forestcheck is an example of such a program which has been applied in forests in south-west Western Australia since 2001. In concert with measuring the direct impact of climate change on biodiversity and the indirect impact of factors that affect biodiversity (such as disease, invasive species, fire regime and habitat removal), there is a need for a proactive focus on creating, maintaining and monitoring resilience to climate change impacts in ecosystems. It is also necessary to monitor the effectiveness of management actions such as vegetation thinning, changes in fire regimes, species translocations and revegetation of farmland to link isolated protected areas in agricultural landscapes, remnant native vegetation in rangelands and extensive protected areas. A pluralist approach is recommended. This should include natural experiments, matched photographs where available, passive adaptive management, active adaptive management and traditional reductionist scientific investigation. The resultant synthesis of information from this range of sources is likely to be a predictive, robust and credible record of historical change. [source] Development Discourses and Peasant,Forest Relations: Natural Resource Utilization as Social ProcessDEVELOPMENT AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2000Anja Nygren This article analyses the changing role of forests and the practices of peasants toward them in a Costa Rican rural community, drawing on an analytical perspective of political ecology, combined with cultural interpretations. The study underlines the complex articulation of local processes and global forces in tropical forest struggles. Deforestation is seen as a process of development and power involving multiple social actors, from politicians and development experts to a heterogeneous group of local peasants. The local people are not passive victims of global challenges, but are instead directly involved in the changes concerning their production systems and livelihood strategies. In the light of historical changes in natural resource utilization, the article underlines the multiplicity of the causes of tropical deforestation, and the intricate links between global discourses on environment and development and local forest relations. [source] Two hundred years of a diverse Daphnia community in Lake Naivasha (Kenya): effects of natural and human-induced environmental changesFRESHWATER BIOLOGY, Issue 8 2004Joachim Mergeay Summary 1. We used fossil diapausing eggs extracted from 210Pb-dated sediment cores to reconstruct historical changes in the Daphnia community of Lake Naivasha, a climate-sensitive lake in Kenya which over the past 200 years has experienced a series of well-documented natural and anthropogenic environmental changes. 2. Contiguous sampling and analysis of four cores yielded ephippial capsules of eight Daphnia species. Only two of these had been recorded previously in live collections from Lake Naivasha, and one species is new to science. The four more common species (Daphnia barbata, D. laevis, D. magna, and D. pulex) show striking differences in abundance patterns and population dynamics through time. Four other species (D. lumholtzi, D. curvirostris, D. longispina s.l., and Daphnia sp. nov. type Limuru.) appear to have been present only occasionally. Nevertheless, between 1895 and 1915 seven species of Daphnia inhabited Lake Naivasha simultaneously. 3. Despite considerable natural environmental change associated with climate-driven lake-level fluctuations, the Daphnia community of Lake Naivasha has been severely affected by human activities over the past century, especially the introduction of exotic fishes and water-quality changes because of agricultural soil erosion. The recent reappearance of large-bodied Daphnia species (D. magna, D. barbata, D. lumholtzi, Daphnia sp. nov. type Limuru) after 20,110 years of absence can be explained by their release from fish predation, following a dramatic increase in turbidity caused by excess clastic sediment input from eroded catchment soils. The small-bodied species D. laevis has fared less well recently, presumably because the benefit of lowered predation pressure is counteracted by more pronounced negative effects of increased turbidity on this species and loss of submerged macrophyte beds which formerly served as predation refuge. 4. Our results suggest that, despite considerable environmental instability and the absence of specialised zooplanktivores, top-down control of fish on large zooplankton is important in Lake Naivasha. Predation pressure from fish has led to clear-cut shifts in local Daphnia species composition, but failed to drive the larger taxa to extinction. [source] Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th centuryGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2005Florent Mouillot Abstract A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long-term indirect effects on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two-step process to estimate these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr,1 burned (not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr,1 at the beginning of the century, mostly in the boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr,1 in the 1960s as a consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mha yr,1. At the same time, burned areas increased exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr,1 in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests in the closing years of the 20th century. [source] Bias in Historical Description, Interpretation, and ExplanationHISTORY AND THEORY, Issue 1 2000C. Behan Mccullagh Debates among historiansshow that they expect descriptions of past people and events, interpretations of historicalsubjects, and genetic explanations of historical changes to be fair and not misleading. Sometimesunfair accounts of the past are the result of historians' bias, of their preferring one accountover others because it accords with their interests. It is useful to distinguish history that ismisleading by accident from that which is the result of personal bias; and to distinguish personalbias from cultural bias and general cultural relativity. This article explains what fairdescriptions, interpretations, and explanations are like in order to clarify the senses in which theycan be biased. It then explains why bias is deplorable, and after noting those who regard it asmore or less inevitable, considers how personal bias can be avoided. It argues that it is notdetachment that is needed, but commitment to standards of rational inquiry. Some mightthink that rational standards of inquiry will not be enough to avoid bias if the evidence availableto the historian is itself biased. In fact historians often allow for bias in evidence, and evenexplain it when reconstructing what happened in the past. The article concludes bynoting that although personal bias can be largely avoided, cultural bias is not so easy to detect orcorrect. [source] Modelling climate change in West African Sahel rainfall (1931,90) as an artifact of changing station locationsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 5 2004Adrian Chappell Abstract Since the major droughts in the West African Sahel during the 1970s, it has been widely asserted that mean annual summer rainfall has declined since the late 1960s. Explanation of this persistent regional drying trend was important for famine early-warning and global climate models. However, the network of rainfall stations changed considerably during that recent period of desiccation. Furthermore, it was difficult to reconcile the calculation of a simple mean value for a region known to have a complex spatial and temporal rainfall pattern. A simple model separated the Sahel into ,wet' and ,dry' regions. This model was inverted against mean annual summer rainfall for the Sahel between 1931 and 1990. Model predictions were found to be insensitive to initial starting conditions. The optimized parameters explained 87% of the variation in observed mean annual summer rainfall. The model predicted the mean annual rainfall in the wet ,coastal' and dry ,continental' regions of the Sahel to be 973 mm and 142 mm respectively. Consequently, the predicted long-term mean annual summer rainfall was 558 mm, 15% greater than that of the observed long-term mean (417 mm). The mean annual summer rainfall for the region was corrected by removing the influence of changing station locations over the study period. No persistent decline was found in mean annual summer rainfall, which suggested that the perceived drying trend was an artifact of the crude statistical aggregation of the data and historical changes in the climate station networks. The absence of a decline in rainfall questioned the validity of the hypotheses and speculations for the causes of the drying trend in the region and its effects on global climate change. It also increased the likelihood that changes over time in other regional and global climate station networks have influenced the performance and interpretation of global climate models. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] 100 years of change: examining agricultural trends, habitat change and stakeholder perceptions through the 20th centuryJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 2 2009Martin Dallimer Summary 1The 20th century has witnessed substantial increases in the intensity of agricultural land management, much of which has been driven by policies to enhance food security and production. The knock-on effects in agriculturally dominated landscapes include habitat degradation and biodiversity loss. We examine long-term patterns of agricultural and habitat change at a regional scale, using the Peak District of northern England as a case study. As stakeholders are central to the implementation of successful land-use policy, we also assess their perceptions of historical changes. 2In the period 1900 to 2000, there was a fivefold rise in sheep density, along with higher cattle density. We found a reduction in the number of farms, evidence of a shift in land ownership patterns, and increased agricultural specialization, including the virtual disappearance of upland arable production. 3Despite previous studies showing a substantial loss in heather cover, we found that there had been no overall change in the proportion of land covered by dwarf shrub moor. Nonetheless, turnover rates were high, with only 55% of sampled sites maintaining dwarf shrub moor coverage between 1913 and 2000. 4Stakeholders identified many of the changes revealed by the historical data, such as increased sheep numbers, fewer farms and greater specialization. However, other land-use changes were not properly described. For instance, although there had been no overall change in the proportion of dwarf shrub moor and the size of the rural labour force had not fallen, stakeholders reported a decline in both. Spatial heterogeneity of the changes, shifting baselines and problems with historical data sources might account for some of these discrepancies. 5Synthesis and applications. A marked increase in sheep numbers, combined with general agricultural intensification, have been the dominant land-use processes in the Peak District during the 20th century. Stakeholders only correctly perceived some land-use changes. Policy and management objectives should therefore be based primarily on actual historical evidence. However, understanding stakeholder perceptions and how they differ from, or agree with, the available evidence will contribute to the successful uptake of land management policies and partly determine the costs of policy implementation. [source] Demographic Issues in Longevity Risk AnalysisJOURNAL OF RISK AND INSURANCE, Issue 4 2006Eric Stallard Fundamental to the modeling of longevity risk is the specification of the assumptions used in demographic forecasting models that are designed to project past experience into future years, with or without modifications based on expert opinion about influential factors not represented in the historical data. Stochastic forecasts are required to explicitly quantify the uncertainty of forecasted cohort survival functions, including uncertainty due to process variance, parameter errors, and model misspecification errors. Current applications typically ignore the latter two sources although the potential impact of model misspecification errors is substantial. Such errors arise from a lack of understanding of the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and the implications of these factors for the future. This article reviews the literature on the nature and causes of historical changes in longevity and recent efforts at deterministic and stochastic forecasting based on these data. The review reveals that plausible alternative sets of forecasting assumptions have been derived from the same sets of historical data, implying that further methodological development will be needed to integrate the various assumptions into a single coherent forecasting model. Illustrative calculations based on existing forecasts indicate that the ranges of uncertainty for older cohorts' survival functions will be at a manageable level. Uncertainty ranges for younger cohorts will be larger and the need for greater precision will likely motivate further model development. [source] Genetic variation and structure in six Rhododendron species (Ericaceae) with contrasting local distribution patterns in Hong Kong, ChinaMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 7 2000Sai-Chit Ng Abstract Genetic variability of six rhododendrons with contrasting local distribution patterns in Hong Kong was assessed by starch gel electrophoresis. Rhododendron championiae, R. hongkongense and R. simiarum are locally rare with disjunct distributions, R. moulmainense is restricted and R. farrerae and R. simsii are common. For each species, 13,18 allozyme loci representing 12,16 enzyme systems were scored. The six species showed similar levels of genetic variations (HT ranged from 0.209 to 0.386 and AT ranged from 2.4 to 4.1) which are high compared to plants with similar life history traits. Genetic structure, in contrast, varied greatly between species, with FST ranging from 0.056 to 0.393. The three rarest species had high genetic differentiation (FST and FPT) and distinct geographical patterns, while the other three had low differentiation and little or no geographical structure. These differences are attributed to both present distributions and historical changes following deforestation within the last 1000 years. The conservation implications of these results are discussed. [source] Structural Change in U.S. Presidents' Use of ForceAMERICAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, Issue 3 2010Jong Hee Park Has there been a structural change in the way U.S. presidents use force abroad since the nineteenth century? In this article, I investigate historical changes in the use of force by U.S. presidents using Bayesian changepoint analysis. In doing so, I present an integrated Bayesian approach for analyzing changepoint problems in a Poisson regression model. To find the nature of the breaks, I estimate parameters of the Poisson regression changepoint model using Chib's (1998) hidden Markov model algorithm and Frühwirth-Schnatter and Wagner's (2006) data augmentation method. Then, I utilize transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to detect the number of breaks. Analyzing yearly use of force data from 1890 to 1995, I find that, controlling for the effects of the Great Depression and the two world wars, the relationship between domestic conditions and the frequency of the use of force abroad fundamentally shifted in the 1940s. [source] | |||||||||||||