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Hindsight Bias (hindsight + bias)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Psychology	80%

Selected Abstracts

A Comparison of Hindsight Bias in Groups and Individuals: The Moderating Role of Plausibility

JOURNAL OF APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 2 2010
Dong-Won Choi
We compared the magnitude of the hindsight bias in individuals and groups with the prediction that the plausibility of an outcome would affect the magnitude of the group,individual difference. We provided groups and individuals with outcomes of scientific studies, and asked them to predict the probability of those outcomes as if they did not know the given outcomes and to report their level of surprise at the outcomes. Overall, groups were more prone to hindsight bias than were individuals, but the group,individual difference was present only when the given outcomes were relatively implausible (Study 1). Moreover, this difference was not eliminated even when participants were asked to consider alternative outcomes (Study 2). Implications are discussed. [source]

Learning from failed decisions

PERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT QUARTERLY, Issue 3 2010
Paul C. Nutt PhD
The consequences and dilemmas posed by learning issues for decision making are discussed. Learning requires both awareness of barriers and a coping strategy. The motives to hold back information essential for learning stem from perverse incentives, obscure outcomes, and the hindsight bias. There is little awareness of perverse incentives that encourage cover-ups and limit discussion. The article shows how cover-ups arise, how to root out perverse incentives, and how to encourage disclosures to understand failure. Cases are used to illustrate perverse incentives and how cover-ups arise. Then actions that encouraged learning as well as ways to deal with obscure outcomes and hindsight biases are offered. [source]

GTIDHNIHS: I knew-it-all-along

APPLIED COGNITIVE PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 5 2001
Harry L. Hom JR
Individuals who do insight problems are highly susceptible to hindsight bias. Two sets of studies assessed the impact of hindsight consequences on participants' judgements about anagram difficulty and specific factors for performance. In the first set, hindsight participants underestimated anagram difficulty relative to participants with task experience (worksight). Also, supportive evidence revealed that hindsight consequences were related to self-perceptions of confidence, ability, performance satisfaction, and subsequent performance expectations. In the second, two different hindsight techniques differentially impacted the participant's assessment of anagram difficulty. When comparing hindsight participants with and without worksight experience, the latter judged the anagrams to be easier. It is appropriate to examine further the cognitive and motivational consequences of hindsight bias in achievement situations. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]

The impact of outcome knowledge, role, and quality of information on the perceived legitimacy of lethal force decisions in counter-terrorism operations

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES & THE LAW, Issue 3 2010
Alasdair M. Goodwill Ph.D.
According to the phenomenon of hindsight bias, once people know the outcome of an event, they tend to have biased estimates of the probability that the event would have occurred. In this study, we investigated whether hindsight bias affected judgements about the legitimacy of lethal force decisions in police shooting incidents for counter-terrorism operations. We also assessed to what extent this hindsight bias was mediated by factors such as role and information quality. Four hundred and eighty participants completed a short questionnaire that manipulated role (as senior police officer, Independent Police Complaints Commissioner, or family member, plus a "no role" control group), information quality (detailed/good or vague/ambiguous), and outcome knowledge (knowledge of outcome/hindsight versus no knowledge of outcome/foresight) in a 4,×,2,×,2 design. Results indicated that outcome knowledge affected the perception of threat and decision quality but not the blameworthiness of the senior police officer. Quality of information had a significant effect on all three dependent variables and role had a significant impact on judgements as to whether the decision to shoot was correct and also the perceived threat, though not on perceived blameworthiness. These findings indicate that people who have to judge the liability of lethal force decisions are not able to ignore outcome information, and are strongly influenced by the quality of information and by the role in which they are receiving the information. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source]