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Hazard Mitigation (hazard + mitigation)
Selected AbstractsWarnings in manufacturing: Improving hazard-mitigation messaging through audience analysisHUMAN FACTORS AND ERGONOMICS IN MANUFACTURING & SERVICE INDUSTRIES, Issue 6 2010Richard C. Goldsworthy Abstract Hazard mitigation, including warning development, validation, and dissemination, is an important aspect of product safety and workplace and consumer protection. Understanding our audiences,workers and consumers,is an especially important, often overlooked, aspect of risk and harm reduction efforts. In this article, particular attention is paid to audience analysis in hazard communication and warning messaging, with a focus on the potential role of latent class analysis (LCA). We provide an example of using LCA to analyze a hazardous behavior: prescription medicine sharing and borrowing. Four distinct groups of people,ranging from abstainers to at-risk sharers,are identified and discussed. Building better warnings and risk communication techniques is essential to promoting occupational and consumer safety. Audience analysis is a vital component of these efforts. LCA appears to be a worthwhile addition to our analytical toolbox by allowing risk reduction and hazard-mitigation efforts to tailor interventions to a diverse target audience. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Frequency analysis for predicting 1% annual maximum water levels along Florida coast, USHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 23 2008Sudong Xu Abstract In the Coastal Flood Insurance Study by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2005), 1% annual maximum coastal water levels are used in coastal flood hazard mitigation and engineering design in coastal areas of USA. In this study, a frequency analysis method has been developed to provide more accurate predictions of 1% annual maximum water levels for the Florida coast waters. Using 82 and 94 years of annual maximum water level data at Pensacola and Fernandina, performances of traditional frequency analysis methods, including advanced method of Generalized Extreme Value distribution method, have been evaluated. Comparison with observations of annual maximum water levels with 83 and 95 years of return periods indicate that traditional methods are unable to provide satisfactory predictions of 1% annual maximum water levels to account for hurricane-induced extreme water levels. Based on the characteristics of annual maximum water level distribution of Pensacola and Fernandina stations, a new probability distribution method has been developed in this study. Comparison with observations indicates that the method presented in this study significantly improves the accuracy of predictions of 1% annual maximum water levels. For Fernandina station, predictions of extreme water level match well with the general trend of observations. With a correlation coefficient of 0·98, the error for the maximum observed extreme water level of 3·11 m (National Geodetic Vertical Datum) with 95 years of return period is 0·92%. For Pensacola station, the prediction error for the maximum observed extreme water level with a return period of 83 years is 5·5%, with a correlation value of 0·98. The frequency analysis has also been reasonably compared to the more costly Monte Carlo simulation method. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Hydrodynamics and geomorphic work of jökulhlaups (glacial outburst floods) from Kverkfjöll volcano, IcelandHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 6 2007Jonathan L. Carrivick Abstract Jökulhlaups (glacial outburst floods) occur frequently within most glaciated regions of the world and cause rapid landscape change, infrastructure damage, and human disturbance. The largest jökulhlaups known to have occurred during the Holocene within Iceland drained from the northern margin of Vatnajökull and along the Jökulsá á Fjöllum. Some of these jökulhlaups originated from Kverkfjöll volcano and were routed through anastomosing, high gradient and hydraulically rough channels. Landforms and sediments preserved within these channels permit palaeoflow reconstructions. Kverkfjöll jökulhlaups were reconstructed using palaeocompetence (point measurements), slope,area (one-dimensional), and depth-averaged two-dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modelling techniques. The increasing complexity of 2D modelling required a range of assumptions, but produced information on both spatial and temporal variations in jökulhlaup characteristics. The jökulhlaups were volcanically triggered, had a linear-rise hydrograph and a peak discharge of 50 000,100 000 m3 s,1, which attenuated by 50,75% within 25 km. Frontal flow velocities were ,2 m s,1; but, as stage increased, velocities reached 5,15m s,1. Peak instantaneous shear stress and stream power reached 1 × 104 N m,2 and 1 × 105 W m,2 respectively. Hydraulic parameters can be related to landform groups. A hierarchy of landforms is proposed, ranging from the highest energy zones (erosional gorges, scoured bedrock, cataracts, and spillways) to the lowest energy zones (of valley fills, bars, and slackwater deposits). Fluvial erosion of bedrock occurred in Kverkfjallarani above ,3 m flow depth, ,7m s,1 flow velocity, ,1 × 102 N m,2 shear stress, and 3 × 102 W m,2 stream power. Fluvial deposition occurred in Kverkfjallarani below ,8 m flow depth, 11 m s,1 flow velocity, 5 × 102 N m,2 shear stress, and 3 × 103 W m,2 stream power. Hence, erosional and depositional ,envelopes' have considerable overlap, probably due to transitional flow phenomena and the influence of upstream effects, such as hydraulic ponding and topographic constrictions, for example. Holocene Kverkfjöll jökulhlaups achieved geomorphic work comparable to that of other late Pleistocene ,megafloods'. This work was a result of steep channel gradients, topographic channel constrictions, and high hydraulic roughness, rather than to extreme peak discharges. The Kverkfjöll jökulhlaups have implications for landscape evolution in north-central Iceland, for water-sediment inputs into the North Atlantic, and for recognizing jökulhlaups in the rock record. 2D hydrodynamic modelling is likely to be important for hazard mitigation in similar landscapes and upon other glaciated volcanoes, because it only requires an input hydrograph and a digital elevation model to run a model, rather than suites of geomorphological evidence and field-surveyed valley cross-sections, for example. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Hindcasting extreme events: the occurrence and expression of damaging floods and landslides in Southern ItalyLAND DEGRADATION AND DEVELOPMENT, Issue 4 2006M. L. Clarke Abstract Extreme rainstorm events across the Mediterranean have caused significant loss of life and damage to property and livelihoods. Italy is particularly vulnerable to natural hazards with recent events such as the 1996 floods in Versilia and the 1998 mass-movement failures at Sarno causing the deaths of 174 people. We have analysed 50 years of rainfall records to hindcast extreme rainstorms that have affected the eastern Basilicata region of southern Italy. Historical and archive data of individual floods and landslides have been compared with their antecedent rainfall conditions in order to characterize the nature of events that cause damage to society and infrastructure. Analysis of extreme-event frequency shows a decreasing annual trend related to changes in regional climate conditions in the western and central Mediterranean driven by changes in the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Land-degradation problems associated with floods and landslides are decreasing due to a drier winter climate coupled with improved hazard mitigation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||