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Great Uncertainty (great + uncertainty)
Selected AbstractsImmobilization, stabilization and remobilization of nitrogen in forest soils at elevated CO2: a 15N and 13C tracer studyGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 10 2005Frank Hagedorn Abstract The fate of immobilized N in soils is one of the great uncertainties in predicting C sequestration at increased CO2 and N deposition. In a dual isotope tracer experiment (13C, 15N) within a 4-year CO2 enrichment (+200 ppmv) study with forest model ecosystems, we (i) quantified the effects of elevated CO2 on the partitioning of N; (ii) traced immobilized N into physically separated pools of soil organic matter (SOM) with turnover rates known from their 13C signals; and (iii) estimated the remobilization and thus, the bio-availability of newly sequestered C and N. (1) CO2 enrichment significantly decreased NO3, concentrations in soil waters and export from 1.5 m deep lysimeters by 30,80%. Consequently, elevated CO2 increased the overall retention of N in the model ecosystems. (2) About 60,80% of added 15NH415NO3 were retained in soils. The clay fraction was the greatest sink for the immobilized 15N sequestering 50,60% of the total new soil N. SOM associated with clay contained only 25% of the total new soil C pool and had small C/N ratios (<13), indicating that it consists of humified organic matter with a relatively slow turn over rate. This implies that added 15N was mainly immobilized in stable mineral-bound SOM pools. (3) Incubation of soils for 1 year showed that the remobilization of newly sequestered N was three to nine times smaller than that of newly sequestered C. Thus, inorganic inputs of N were stabilized more effectively in soils than C. Significantly less newly sequestered N was remobilized from soils previously exposed to elevated CO2. In summary, our results show firstly that a large fraction of inorganic N inputs becomes effectively immobilized in relative stable SOM pools and secondly that elevated CO2 can increase N retention in soils and hence it may tighten N cycling and diminish the risk of nitrate leaching to groundwater. [source] Exposure and effects assessment of resident mink (Mustela vison) exposed to polychlorinated dibenzofurans and other dioxin-like compounds in the Tittabawassee River basin, Midland, Michigan, USA,ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 10 2008Matthew J. Zwiernik Abstract Historically, sediments and floodplain soils of the Tittabawassee River (TR; MI, USA) have been contaminated with polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs), polychlorinated dibenzo- p -dioxins (PCDDs), and polychlorinatedbiphenyls (PCBs). Median concentrations of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin equivalents (TEQs) based on 2006 World Health Organization tetrachloro-dibenzo- p -dioxin toxic equivalency factors (TEFs) in the diet of mink (Mustela vison) ranged from 6.8 × 10,1 ng TEQ/kg wet weight upstream of the primary source of PCDF to 3.1 × 101 ng TEQ/kg wet weight downstream. Estimates of toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived from laboratory studies with individual PCDDs/PCDFs and PCB congeners or mixtures of those congeners, as well as application of TEFs, were compared to site-specific measures of mink exposure. Hazard quotients based on exposures expressed as concentrations of TEQs in the 95th percentile of the mink diet or liver and the no-observable-adverse-effect TRVs were determined to be 1.7 and 8.6, respectively. The resident mink survey, however, including number of mink present, morphological measures, sex ratios, population age structure, and gross and histological tissue examination, indicated no observable adverse effects. This resulted for multiple reasons: First, the exposure estimate was conservative, and second, the predominantly PCDF congener mixture present in the TR appeared to be less potent than predicted from TEQs based on dose,response comparisons. Given this, there appears to be great uncertainty in comparing the measured concentrations of TEQs at this site to TRVs derived from different congeners or congener mixtures. Based on the lack of negative outcomes for any measurement endpoints examined, including jaw lesions, a sentinel indicator of possible adverse effects, and direct measures of effects on individual mink and their population, it was concluded that current concentrations of PCDDs/PCDFs were not causing adverse effects on resident mink of the TR. [source] Can fishermen allocate their fishing effort in space and time on the basis of their catch rates?FISHERIES MANAGEMENT & ECOLOGY, Issue 1 2001An example from Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia, SW Sulawesi Spatial and temporal patterns in catch rates and in allocation of fishing effort were analysed for the coastal fishery in Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia, to assess whether fishermen can optimise their strategy from catch information, or whether they fish under great uncertainty and merely minimise risks. On average 517 fishing units operated in the 2800 km2 area, catching 21 t fish day,1. Major gear categories were hook and line (59% of total effort and 5% of total catch), and lift nets (16% of total effort and 70% of total catch). The size of individual resource spaces varied with gear type and was smaller in unfavourable weather conditions. Although spatial patterns in catch rates at the scale of the whole archipelago were evident, fishermen could not differentiate between locations, as catch variance within their individual resource spaces was high relative to the contrasts in spatial patterns. The aggregated distribution of fishing effort in Spermonde must be explained by factors such as the small scale of operations, rather than fish abundance. [source] Responses of leaf nitrogen concentration and specific leaf area to atmospheric CO2 enrichment: a retrospective synthesis across 62 speciesGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 7 2002Xiwei Yin Abstract Knowledge of leaf responses to elevated atmospheric [CO2] (CO2 concentration) is integral to understanding interactions between vegetation and global change. This work deals with responses of leaf mass-based nitrogen concentration (Nm) and specific leaf area (SLA). It assesses the statistical significance of factors perceived as influential on the responses, and quantifies how the responses vary with the significant factors identified, based on 170 data cases of 62 species compiled from the literature. Resultant equations capture about 41% of the variance in the data for percent responses of Nm and SLA, or about 95% of the variance for Nm and SLA at 57,320% normal [CO2]; these performance statistics also hold for leaf area-based N concentration and specific leaf weight. The equations generalize that: (i) both Nm and SLA decline as [CO2] increases; (ii) proportional decline of Nm is greater with deciduous woody species and with plants of normally low Nm, increases with pot size in growth chamber and greenhouse settings and with temperature and photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), and is mitigated by N fertilization; and (iii) proportional decline of SLA depends on pot size and PPFD similarly to Nm, increases with leaf life span and water vapour pressure deficit in enclosed experiments, and decreases with prolonged exposure to elevated [CO2] among broadleaf woody species in field conditions. The results highlight great uncertainty in the percent-response data and reveal the potential feasibility to estimate Nm and SLA at various magnitudes of elevated [CO2] from a few key plant and environmental factors of broad data bases. [source] Predicting risk selection following major changes in medicareHEALTH ECONOMICS, Issue 4 2008Steven D. Pizer Abstract The Medicare Modernization Act of 2003 created several new types of private insurance plans within Medicare, starting in 2006. Some of these plan types previously did not exist in the commercial market and there was great uncertainty about their prospects. In this paper, we show that statistical models and historical data from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey can be used to predict the experience of new plan types with reasonable accuracy. This lays the foundation for the analysis of program modifications currently under consideration. We predict market share, risk selection, and stability for the most prominent new plan type, the stand-alone Medicare prescription drug plan (PDP). First, we estimate a model of consumer choice across Medicare insurance plans available in the data. Next, we modify the data to include PDPs and use the model to predict the probability of enrollment for each beneficiary in each plan type. Finally, we calculate mean-adjusted actual spending by plan type. We predict that adverse selection into PDPs will be substantial, but that enrollment and premiums will be stable. Our predictions correspond well to actual experience in 2006. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Hydrologic response of the Greenland ice sheet: the role of oceanographic warmingHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 1 2009E. Hanna Abstract The response of the Greenland ice sheet to ongoing climate change remains an area of great uncertainty, with most previous studies having concentrated on the contribution of the atmosphere to the ice mass-balance signature. Here we systematically assess for the first time the influence of oceanographic changes on the ice sheet. The first part of this assessment involves a statistical analysis and interpretation of the relative changes and variations in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and air temperatures around Greenland for the period 1870,2007. This analysis is based on HadISST1 and Reynolds OI.v2 SST analyses, in situ SST and deeper ocean temperature series, surface-air-temperature records for key points located around the Greenland coast, and examination of atmospheric pressure and geopotential height from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Second, we carried out a novel sensitivity experiment in which SSTs were perturbed as input to a regional climate model, and document the resulting effects on simulated Greenland climate and surface mass balance. We conclude that sea-surface/ocean temperature forcing is not sufficient to strongly influence precipitation/snow accumulation and melt/runoff of the ice sheet. Additional evidence from meteorological reanalysis suggests that high Greenland melt anomalies of summer 2007 are likely to have been primarily forced by anomalous advection of warm air masses over the ice sheet and to have therefore had a more remote atmospheric origin. However, there is a striking correspondence between ocean warming and dramatic accelerations and retreats of key Greenland outlet glaciers in both southeast and southwest Greenland during the late 1990s and early 2000s. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The rapid spread of invasive Eurasian Collared Doves Streptopelia decaocto in the continental USA follows human-altered habitatsIBIS, Issue 3 2010IKUKO FUJISAKI Understanding factors related to the range expansion trajectory of a successful invasive species may provide insights into environmental variables that favour additional expansion or guide monitoring and survey efforts for this and other invasive species. We examined the relationship of presence and abundance of Eurasian Collared Doves Streptopelia decaocto to environmental factors using recent data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey to understand factors influencing its expansion into the continental USA. A zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was used to account for excess zero observations because this species was not observed on the majority of survey routes, despite its large geographical range. Model fit was improved when we included environmental covariates as compared with the null model, which only included distance from the route where this species was first observed. Probability of zero count was positively related to the distance from the first route and road density and was inversely related to minimum temperature and distance to coast. Abundance of the species was positively related to road density and was inversely related to annual precipitation and distance to coast. Random intercept by land-cover type also improved model fit. Model fit was improved with the ZIP model over the standard Poisson model, suggesting that presence and abundance of this species are characterized by different environmental factors. However, overall low accuracy of model-predicted presence/absence and abundance with the independent validation dataset may indicate either that there are other explanatory factors or that there is great uncertainty in the species' colonization process. Our large-scale study provides additional evidence that the range expansion of this species tends to follow human-altered landscapes such as road and agricultural areas as well as responding to general geographical features such as coastlines or thermal clines. Such patterns may hold true for other invasive species and may provide guidelines for monitoring and assessment activities in other invasive taxa. [source] Clinical relapse in Whipple's disease despite maintenance therapyJOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY AND HEPATOLOGY, Issue 10 2000George Garas Abstract Whipple's disease is a multisystem disorder that was first reported just over 100 years ago. Only recently, the bacillus responsible for the condition was identified and subsequently cultured. However, differences of opinion remain regarding the best antibiotic regimen and duration of therapy at primary diagnosis and there is also great uncertainty about the management of disease relapse. We report a case of clinical relapse of Whipple's disease in a man who was on a prolonged therapy with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole. We describe his management and review the literature on the treatment of this condition, with particular reference to the recurrence of the disease. [source] Adopting Lead-Free Electronics: Policy Differences and Knowledge GapsJOURNAL OF INDUSTRIAL ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2004Julie M. Schoenung For more than a decade, the use of lead (Pb) in electronics has been controversial: Indeed, its toxic effects are well documented, whereas relatively little is known about proposed alternative materials. As the quantity of electronic and electrical waste (e-waste) increases, legislative initiatives and corporate marketing strategies are driving a reduction in the use of some toxic substances in electronics. This article argues that the primacy of legislation over engineering and economics may result in selecting undesirable replacement materials for Pb because of overlooked knowledge gaps. These gaps include the need for: assessments of the effects of changes in policy on the flow of e-waste across state and national boundaries; further reliability testing of alternative solder alloys; further toxicology and environmental impact studies for high environmental loading of the alternative solders (and their metal components); improved risk assessment methodologies that can capture complexities such as changes in waste management practices, in electronic product design, and in rate of product obsolescence; carefully executed allocation methods when evaluating the impact of raw material extraction; and in-depth risk assessment of alternative end-of-life (EOL) options. The resulting environmental and human health consequences may be exacerbated by policy differences across political boundaries. To address this conundrum, legislation and policies dealing with Pb in electronics are first reviewed. A discussion of the current state of knowledge on alternative solder materials relative to product design, environmental performance, and risk assessment follows. Previous studies are reviewed, and consistent with their results, this analysis finds that there is great uncertainty in the trade-offs between Pb-based solders and proposed replacements. Bridging policy and knowledge gaps will require increased international cooperation on materials use, product market coverage, and e-waste EOL management. [source] The Fog of Integration: Reassessing the Role of Economic Interests in European IntegrationBRITISH JOURNAL OF POLITICS & INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, Issue 1 2008Patrick Leblond The main theories of European economic integration argue that private economic interests provide the impetus and pressures for integration to move forward. Public policy analyses of the European Union's legislative process, however, show that intense lobbying by such interests can prevent legislative proposals from being adopted, even if economic interests were initially in favour of supranational legislation. How do we explain this apparent contradiction? The answer is that economic interests initially face great uncertainty as to the precise costs and benefits of integrating a particular policy area; only once the ,fog of integration' lifts,as a result of concrete legislative proposals being tabled by the Commission,are economic interests able to calculate these costs and benefits and, consequently, decide whether to lobby for or against the proposal. To provide a first-run validation of the argument, the article examines the cases of the Software Patent and Takeover directives. [source] | ||||||||||||||||