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Better Prediction (good + prediction)
Selected AbstractsWeight loss predicts mortality after recurrent oral cavity and oropharyngeal carcinomas,CANCER, Issue 3 2002Thao V. Nguyen B.S.E. Abstract BACKGROUND The prognosis of patients with recurrent tumors of the head and neck generally is considered poor. Better prediction of outcomes can help physicians counsel patients about the merits of additional treatment. The TNM system, which was created for patients with primary tumors, may not provide optimal information. Anatomic staging systems traditionally have ignored symptom-based variables, such as weight loss, despite their known prognostic value. The objectives of this study were 1) to measure the prognostic impact of weight loss, 2) to evaluate the prognostic value of the TNM staging system, and 3) to create a practical staging system capable of predicting survival after patients develop recurrent tumors of the oral cavity and oropharynx. METHODS A retrospective chart review was used to identify an inception cohort of patients seeking treatment for recurrent, persistent, and second primary tumors of the oral cavity and oropharynx at the University of Washington. The primary outcome variable was 1-year survival. RESULTS The 1-year survival rate for the cohort (n = 97 patients) was 38%, with a median survival of 0.7 years. Multivariate analysis (Cox regression) identified weight loss, previous radiation to the head and neck, and TNM stage of the recurrent tumor as factors that had a substantial impact on mortality. A second multivariate technique called conjunctive consolidation was used to determine the relative quantitative impact of each variable on survival and to develop a clinical staging system. Weight loss and previous radiation had the greatest influence, and the use of just these two variables resulted in a three-tiered staging system with 1-year survival rates of 62% (16 of 26 patients), 44% (18 of 41 patients), and 10% (3 of 30 patients). In contrast, the TNM staging system produced survival rates of 60% (patients with Stage I disease), 67% (patients with Stage II disease), 32% (patients with Stage III disease), and 32% (patients with Stage IV disease). CONCLUSIONS The authors found substantial variation in survival after patients developed recurrent tumors of the oral cavity and oropharynx. Two readily available clinical variables,weight loss and previous radiation,were combined to create a clinically practical staging scheme with more prognostic power than the TNM staging system. Until molecular markers can reliably used be to predict outcomes, greater attention needs to be given to the utility of simple, inexpensive, and surprisingly powerful clinical variables. Cancer 2002;95:553,62. © 2002 American Cancer Society. DOI 10.1002/cncr.10711 [source] Making better biogeographical predictions of species' distributionsJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2006ANTOINE GUISAN Summary 1Biogeographical models of species' distributions are essential tools for assessing impacts of changing environmental conditions on natural communities and ecosystems. Practitioners need more reliable predictions to integrate into conservation planning (e.g. reserve design and management). 2Most models still largely ignore or inappropriately take into account important features of species' distributions, such as spatial autocorrelation, dispersal and migration, biotic and environmental interactions. Whether distributions of natural communities or ecosystems are better modelled by assembling individual species' predictions in a bottom-up approach or modelled as collective entities is another important issue. An international workshop was organized to address these issues. 3We discuss more specifically six issues in a methodological framework for generalized regression: (i) links with ecological theory; (ii) optimal use of existing data and artificially generated data; (iii) incorporating spatial context; (iv) integrating ecological and environmental interactions; (v) assessing prediction errors and uncertainties; and (vi) predicting distributions of communities or collective properties of biodiversity. 4Synthesis and applications. Better predictions of the effects of impacts on biological communities and ecosystems can emerge only from more robust species' distribution models and better documentation of the uncertainty associated with these models. An improved understanding of causes of species' distributions, especially at their range limits, as well as of ecological assembly rules and ecosystem functioning, is necessary if further progress is to be made. A better collaborative effort between theoretical and functional ecologists, ecological modellers and statisticians is required to reach these goals. [source] Combustion of a substitution fuel made of cardboard and polyethylene: influence of the mix characteristics,modelingFIRE AND MATERIALS, Issue 7 2008S. Salvador Abstract The model proposed in this paper describes the combustion of a porous medium subjected to a radiative heat flux at its surface. There is no forced convection of air through the medium; hence this situation corresponds to the one encountered at the surface of fuel elements such as pellets, bricks or ballots, inside a furnace or kiln. Ash is not removed from the surface. No assumption is made a priori in terms of the limiting phenomena. The medium is composed of cardboard and polyethylene (PE). Based on previous experimental work (Fuel 2004; 83:451,462), the material is assumed to be a macroscopically homogeneous porous medium. Local thermal equilibrium is also assumed. Most of the parameters required for the modeling were determined from specific experiments. Good predictions of the sample mass evolution and of the temperature levels inside the sample body were obtained for a large range of densities and PE content. A devolatilization front of about 20,mm first propagates inside the medium. The volatile matter flux is advected to the surface, which leads to the formation of the flame above the surface. Then a second char oxidation front propagates, starting from the surface. The front thickness is approximately 25,mm under the experimental conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Prediction of accuracy of estimated Mendelian sampling termsJOURNAL OF ANIMAL BREEDING AND GENETICS, Issue 5 2005S. Avendaño Summary This study describes a general framework for predicting the accuracy of Mendelian sampling terms when truncation selection is applied on best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) estimated breeding values. A selection index approach is followed. The pseudo-BLUP index is extended to include terms related to the Mendelian sampling term. Predicted accuracies are compared with those obtained through stochastic computer simulation. Good predictions for the accuracy of the Mendelian sampling term were obtained both at selection time and at convergence of long-term contributions of selected candidates for a range of heritabilities and population structures. The prediction approach developed provides a key tool for obtaining predictions of genetic response from quadratic optimization that maximizes the rate of genetic progress while restricting the rate of inbreeding. [source] Modelling increased soil cohesion due to roots with EUROSEMEARTH SURFACE PROCESSES AND LANDFORMS, Issue 13 2008S. De Baets Abstract As organic root exudates cause soil particles to adhere firmly to root surfaces, roots significantly increase soil strength and therefore also increase the resistance of the topsoil to erosion by concentrated flow. This paper aims at contributing to a better prediction of the root effects on soil erosion rates in the EUROSEM model, as the input values accounting for roots, presented in the user manual, do not account for differences in root density or root architecture. Recent research indicates that small changes in root density or differences in root architecture considerably influence soil erosion rates during concentrated flow. The approach for incorporating the root effects into this model is based on a comparison of measured soil detachment rates for bare and for root-permeated topsoil samples with predicted erosion rates under the same flow conditions using the erosion equation of EUROSEM. Through backwards calculation, transport capacity efficiencies and corresponding soil cohesion values can be assessed for bare and root-permeated topsoils respectively. The results are promising and present soil cohesion values that are in accordance with reported values in the literature for the same soil type (silt loam). The results show that grass roots provide a larger increase in soil cohesion as compared with tap-rooted species and that the increase in soil cohesion is not significantly different under wet and dry soil conditions, either for fibrous root systems or for tap root systems. Power and exponential relationships are established between measured root density values and the corresponding calculated soil cohesion values, reflecting the effects of roots on the resistance of the topsoil to concentrated flow incision. These relationships enable one to incorporate the root effect into the soil erosion model EUROSEM, through adapting the soil cohesion input value. A scenario analysis shows that the contribution of roots to soil cohesion is very important for preventing soil loss and reducing runoff volume. The increase in soil shear strength due to the binding effect of roots on soil particles is two orders of magnitude lower as compared with soil reinforcement achieved when roots mobilize their tensile strength during soil shearing and root breakage. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Prediction of biodegradation from the atom-type electrotopological state indicesENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 10 2001Jarmo Huuskonen Abstract A group contribution method based on atom-type electrotopological state indices for predicting the biodegradation of a diverse set of 241 organic chemicals is presented. Multiple linear regression and artificial neural networks were used to build the models using a training set of 172 compounds, for which the approximate time for ultimate biodegradation was estimated from the results of a survey of an expert panel. Derived models were validated by using a leave-25%-out method and against two test sets of 12 and 57 chemicals not included in the training set. The squared correlation coefficient (r2) for a linear model with 15 structural parameters was 0.76 for the training set and 0.68 for the test set of 12 molecules. The model predicted correctly the biodegradation of 48 chemicals in the test set of 57 molecules, for which biodegradability was presented as rapid or slow. The use of artificial neural networks gave better prediction for both test sets when the same set of parameters was tested as inputs in neural network simulations. The predictions of rapidly biodegradable chemicals were more accurate than the predictions of slowly bio-degradable chemicals for both the regression and neural network models. [source] Predicting pasture root density from soil spectral reflectance: field measurementEUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SOIL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2010B. H. KUSUMO This paper reports the development and evaluation of a field technique for in situ measurement of root density using a portable spectroradiometer. The technique was evaluated at two sites in permanent pasture on contrasting soils (an Allophanic and a Fluvial Recent soil) in the Manawatu region, New Zealand. Using a modified soil probe, reflectance spectra (350,2500 nm) were acquired from horizontal surfaces at three depths (15, 30 and 60 mm) of an 80-mm diameter soil core, totalling 108 samples for both soils. After scanning, 3-mm soil slices were taken at each depth for root density measurement and soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) analysis. The two soils exhibited a wide range of root densities from 1.53 to 37.03 mg dry root g,1 soil. The average root density in the Fluvial soil (13.21 mg g,1) was twice that in the Allophanic soil (6.88 mg g,1). Calibration models, developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR) of the first derivative spectra and reference data, were able to predict root density on unknown samples using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. The root density predictions were more accurate when the samples from the two soil types were separated (rather than grouped) to give sub-populations (n = 54) of spectral data with more similar attributes. A better prediction of root density was achieved in the Allophanic soil (r2 = 0.83, ratio prediction to deviation (RPD ) = 2.44, root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV ) = 1.96 mg g ,1) than in the Fluvial soil (r2 = 0.75, RPD = 1.98, RMSECV = 5.11 mg g ,1). It is concluded that pasture root density can be predicted from soil reflectance spectra acquired from field soil cores. Improved PLSR models for predicting field root density can be produced by selecting calibration data from field data sources with similar spectral attributes to the validation set. Root density and soil C content can be predicted independently, which could be particularly useful in studies examining potential rates of soil organic matter change. [source] Elastic properties of dry clay mineral aggregates, suspensions and sandstonesGEOPHYSICAL JOURNAL INTERNATIONAL, Issue 1 2003Tiziana Vanorio SUMMARY The presence of clay minerals can alter the elastic behaviour of rocks significantly. Although clay minerals are common in sedimentary formations and seismic measurements are our main tools for studying subsurface lithologies, measurements of elastic properties of clay minerals have proven difficult. Theoretical values for the bulk modulus of clay are reported between 20 and 50 GPa. The only published experimental measurement of Young's modulus in a clay mineral using atomic force acoustic microscopy (AFAM) gave a much lower value of 6.2 GPa. This study has concentrated on using independent experimental methods to measure the elastic moduli of clay minerals as functions of pressure and saturation. First, ultrasonic P - and S -wave velocities were measured as functions of hydrostatic pressure in cold-pressed clay aggregates with porosity and grain density ranging from 4 to 43 per cent and 2.13 to 2.83 g cm,3, respectively. In the second experiment, P - and S -wave velocities in clay powders were measured under uniaxial stresses compaction. In the third experiment, P -wave velocity and attenuation in a kaolinite,water suspension with clay concentrations between 0 and 60 per cent were measured at ambient conditions. Our elastic moduli measurements of kaolinite, montmorillonite and smectite are consistent for all experiments and with reported AFAM measurements on a nanometre scale. The bulk modulus values of the solid clay phase (Ks) lie between 6 and 12 GPa and shear (,s) modulus values vary between 4 and 6 GPa. A comparison is made between the accuracy of velocity prediction in shaley sandstones and clay,water and clay,sand mixtures using the values measured in this study and those from theoretical models. Using Ks= 12 GPa and ,s= 6 GPa from this study, the models give a much better prediction both of experimental velocity reduction due to increase in clay content in sandstones and velocity measurements in a kaolinite,water suspension. [source] Predicting school adjustment from motor abilities in kindergartenINFANT AND CHILD DEVELOPMENT, Issue 6 2007Orit Bart Abstract The present study assessed the relations between basic motor abilities in kindergarten and scholastic, social, and emotional adaptation in the transition to formal schooling. Seventy-one five-year-old kindergarten children were administered a battery of standard assessments of basic motor functions. A year later, children's adjustment to school was assessed via a series of questionnaires completed by the children and their class teachers. The results indicate that in addition to the already documented association between visual,motor integration and academic achievement, other motor functions show significant predictive value to both scholastic adaptation and social and emotional adjustment to school. The results further suggest a better prediction of scholastic adaptation and level of disruptive behaviour in school when using an aggregate measure of children's ability in various motor domains than when using assessments of singular motor functions. It is concluded that good motor ability may serve as a buffer to the normative challenges presented to children in the transition to school. In contrast, poor motor ability emerges as a vulnerability factor in the transition to formal schooling. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Inextensible reinforcement on non-linear elasto-plastic subgrade under oblique pullINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL AND ANALYTICAL METHODS IN GEOMECHANICS, Issue 18 2008J. T. Shahu Abstract In this paper, a rational analysis of pullout resistance of inextensible sheet reinforcement subjected to oblique end force has been presented considering a non-linear (hyperbolic), elasto-plastic, normal stress,displacement relationship of the subgrade. Under an oblique pull, high normal stresses develop on stronger subgrades, thus mobilizing high shearing resistance at the reinforcement,soil interface. The higher the bearing resistance of the subgrade, the higher the horizontal component of pullout force and the lower the end displacement of the reinforcement. On the other hand, the end displacement at pullout can become very high for weaker subgrades especially at high values of the angle of obliquity. Also, the pullout capacity under oblique loading for weaker subgrades may approach or even fall below the axial pullout capacity at high values of the angle of obliquity. These adverse pullout responses owing to a low value of bearing resistance of subgrade are magnified when the subgrade stiffness is also small. On weaker subgrades, improvement in angle of interface shear is not advisable as this leads to further reduction in the pullout force and increase in the end displacement. Results are compared with back analysis of published test data on model reinforced soil walls. The comparison suggests that the present model leads to a more rational and better prediction of the pullout failure. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Variable selection in random calibration of near-infrared instruments: ridge regression and partial least squares regression settingsJOURNAL OF CHEMOMETRICS, Issue 3 2003Arief Gusnanto Abstract Standard methods for calibration of near-infrared instruments, such as partial least-squares (PLS) and ridge regression (RR), typically use the full set of wavelengths in the model. In this paper we investigate the effect of variable (wavelength) selection for these two methods on the model prediction. For RR the selection is optimized with respect to the ridge parameter, the number of variables and the configuration of the variables in the model. A fast iterative computational algorithm is developed for the purpose of this optimization. For PLS the selection is optimized with respect to the number of components, the number of variables and the configuration of the variables. We use three real data sets in this study: processed milk from the market, milk from a dairy farm and milk from the production line of a milk processing factory. The quantity of interest is the concentration of fat in the milk. The observations are randomly split into estimation and validation sets. Optimization is based on the mean square prediction error computed on the validation set. The results indicate that the wavelength selection will not always give better prediction than using all of the available wavelengths. Investigation of the information in the spectra is necessary to determine whether all of them are relevant to the objective of the model. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Prediction of interactiveness between small molecules and enzymes by combining gene ontology and compound similarityJOURNAL OF COMPUTATIONAL CHEMISTRY, Issue 8 2010Lei Chen Abstract Determination of whether a small organic molecule interacts with an enzyme can help to understand the molecular and cellular functions of organisms, and the metabolic pathways. In this research, we present a prediction model, by combining compound similarity and enzyme similarity, to predict the interactiveness between small molecules and enzymes. A dataset consisting of 2859 positive couples of small molecule and enzyme and 286,056 negative couples was employed. Compound similarity is a measurement of how similar two small molecules are, proposed by Hattori et al., J Am Chem Soc 2003, 125, 11853 which can be availed at http://www.genome.jp/ligand-bin/search_compound, while enzyme similarity was obtained by three ways, they are blast method, using gene ontology items and functional domain composition. Then a new distance between a pair of couples was established and nearest neighbor algorithm (NNA) was employed to predict the interactiveness of enzymes and small molecules. A data distribution strategy was adopted to get a better data balance between the positive samples and the negative samples during training the prediction model, by singling out one-fourth couples as testing samples and dividing the rest data into seven training datasets,the rest positive samples were added into each training dataset while only the negative samples were divided. In this way, seven NNAs were built. Finally, simple majority voting system was applied to integrate these seven models to predict the testing dataset, which was demonstrated to have better prediction results than using any single prediction model. As a result, the highest overall prediction accuracy achieved 97.30%. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem, 2010 [source] Observation of three cases of temporomandibular joint osteoarthritis and mandibular morphology during adolescence using helical CTJOURNAL OF ORAL REHABILITATION, Issue 4 2004K. Yamada summary, Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) osteoarthritis (OA) is a potential cause of craniofacial deformity. If TMJ OA appears during orthodontic treatment, the mandible usually rotates posteriorly, resulting in an unsatisfactory profile, especially in patients with pre-treatment mandibular retrusion. Although it is important to confirm the kind of TMJ pathosis at the start of orthodontic treatment, the relationship between TMJ OA, condylar remodelling and changes in craniofacial morphology remains unclear because of a lack of longitudinal studies. Elucidating this relationship might allow better prediction of post-treatment craniofacial morphology. In the present case reports, helical computed tomography and cephalometry were used to analyse relationships between the pattern and location of condylar remodelling and the changes in craniofacial morphology in three patients with TMJ OA. [source] The relationship between acute stress disorder and posttraumatic stress disorder in injured children,JOURNAL OF TRAUMATIC STRESS, Issue 6 2007Richard A. Bryant This study indexed the relationship between acute stress disorder (ASD) and subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in injured children. Consecutive children between 7,13 years admitted to a hospital after traumatic injury (n = 76) were assessed for ASD. Children were followed up 6-months posttrauma (n = 62), and administered the PTSD Reaction Index. Acute stress disorder was diagnosed in 10% of patients, and 13% satisfied criteria for PTSD. At 6-months posttrauma, PTSD was diagnosed in 25% of patients who were diagnosed with ASD. Acute stress reactions that did not include dissociation provided better prediction of PTSD than full ASD criteria. These findings suggest that the current ASD diagnosis is not optimal in identifying younger children who are high risk for PTSD development. [source] Assessment of hepatitis C virus-RNA clearance under combination therapy for hepatitis C virus genotype 1: performance of the transcription-mediated amplification assayJOURNAL OF VIRAL HEPATITIS, Issue 1 2008D. Ferraro Summary., Monitoring of HCV-RNA in blood during antiviral therapy is performed mostly by commercially available reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction-based (RT-PCR) assays, with a lower detection limit of 30,50 IU/mL of HCV-RNA. Use of different tests in the pivotal trials of combination therapy has generated some discordance, in terms of predictive value of the early virological response (EVR). To evaluate whether the use of a more sensitive test, as a qualitative assay based on transcription mediated amplification (TMA) with a lower detection limit of 5,10 IU/mL of HCV-RNA, may obtain a better prediction of EVR and of the ultimate virological outcome, we retrospectively evaluated serial samples from 108 naïve patients with HCV genotype 1 chronic hepatitis, treated with pegylated ,2b interferon plus ribavirin for 48 weeks and with a 24 weeks stopping rule. Serum samples of patients, obtained during treatment at weeks 4, 12, 24 and 48 and after treatment at week 24, were evaluated by TMA. Comparison of the RT-PCR and TMA assays for the qualitative detection of HCV-RNA showed no significant differences in performance when these tests were used at the end of the treatment period for assessing patients without an on-treatment virological response and those who eventually obtain a sustained virological response. Our results show instead that the use of TMA assay to detect HCV-RNA at 12 and 24 weeks of the combination therapy is more effective than RT-PCR in identifying patients with the highest probability of sustained HCV-RNA clearance. [source] Review article: inflammatory bowel disease and geneticsALIMENTARY PHARMACOLOGY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 2007R. K. WEERSMA Summary Introduction, Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) comprising ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn's disease (CD) is multigenic disorder. Tremendous progress has been achieved in unravelling the genetic background of IBD. It has led to the discovery of mutations in NOD2 associated with ileal CD and numerous other genes have been found to be associated with IBD susceptibility. Methods, A review of the literature on the genetic background of IBD was performed. Results, It is only partially understood how mutations in NOD2 lead to CD. Mouse models, in vitro data and studies in humans offer conflicting data as regards whether there is a loss or gain of function of NOD2 in CD. Several additional genes have been identified of which only a few are currently being recognized as potential disease causing or disease modifying genes. Promising candidate genes include TLR4, MDR1, NOD1 (CARD4), DLG5 as well as the IBD5 locus including SLC22A4/5. Conclusions, Although genetic research has not yet led to a better prediction of the disease course or patient selection for medical therapy, remarkable progress has been made in the understanding of the pathogenesis of IBD. For future genetic research, accurate phenotyping of patients is very important and large population-based cohorts are needed. Eventually, genetic research may be able to classify different disease phenotypes on a more detailed molecular basis and may provide important contributions in the development of new therapeutic approaches. [source] Relationship between pretreatment specific IgE and the response to omalizumab therapyALLERGY, Issue 12 2009U. Wahn Background:, Omalizumab, an anti-IgE antibody, has proven efficacy in patients with moderate-to-severe and severe persistent allergic (IgE-mediated) asthma. While previous analyses have had some limited success in predicting which patients will gain greatest benefit based on pretreatment baseline characteristics, it remains important to try to improve this predictability. Methods:, Following a run-in phase, patients (12,75 years) inadequately controlled despite current therapy were randomized to receive omalizumab or placebo for 28 weeks in a double-blind, parallel-group, multicenter study (INNOVATE). Univariate analyses were performed to assess whether pretreatment specific IgE serum levels and related variables could be identified that were predictive of a response to omalizumab patients (n = 337) enrolled in INNOVATE. Response was measured via variables including exacerbations, QoL, FEV1 and physicians' overall assessment. Results:, A total of 305 patients (90.5%) were sensitive to more than one allergen and the majority of patients were positive to D1 Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and D2 Dermatophagoides farinae. Patients with relatively high values of D1 or D2, but with these making a relatively low contribution to total specific IgE load, appeared to attain most benefit from omalizumab. However, no consistent predictive effect for omalizumab response was observed either for total specific IgE or levels of IgEs specific for individual allergens. Conclusions:, Based on these data, pretreatment allergen-specific IgE levels do not provide any better prediction of response to treatment as compared with pretreatment total IgE. At present, the most reliable method of identifying patients who respond to omalizumab treatment remains a physician's assessment. [source] Joint Identification of Multiple Genetic Variants via Elastic-Net Variable Selection in a Genome-Wide Association AnalysisANNALS OF HUMAN GENETICS, Issue 5 2010Seoae Cho Summary Unraveling the genetic background of common complex traits is a major goal in modern genetics. In recent years, genome-wide association (GWA) studies have been conducted with large-scale data sets of genetic variants. Most of those studies have relied on single-marker approaches that identify single genetic factors individually and can be limited in considering fully the joint effects of multiple genetic factors on complex traits. Joint identification of multiple genetic factors would be more powerful and would provide better prediction on complex traits since it utilizes combined information across variants. Here we propose a multi-stage approach for GWA analysis: (1) prescreening, (2) joint identification of putative SNPs based on elastic-net variable selection, and (3) empirical replication using bootstrap samples. Our approach enables an efficient joint search for genetic associations in GWA analysis. The suggested empirical replication method can be beneficial in GWA studies because one can avoid a costly, independent replication study while eliminating false-positive associations and focusing on a smaller number of replicable variants. We applied the proposed approach to a GWA analysis, and jointly identified 129 genetic variants having an association with adult height in a Korean population. [source] A limited sampling strategy for tacrolimus in renal transplant patientsBRITISH JOURNAL OF CLINICAL PHARMACOLOGY, Issue 4 2008Binu S. Mathew WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS SUBJECT , Tacrolimus trough concentration is being currently used for dose individualization. , Limited sampling strategies (LSS) have been developed and validated for renal transplant patients. , Earlier literature has suggested that measurement of tacrolimus AUC is more reliable than trough with respect to both rejection and nephrotoxicity. WHAT THIS STUDY ADDS , Four thousand renal transplants take place annually in India, with many patients prescribed tacrolimus in combination with mycophenolate and steroid. , In this study a LSS with two points, i.e. trough and 1.5 h postdose was developed and validated to estimate AUC0,12. , The added benefit of only a single additional sample with completion of blood collection in 1.5 h and minimum additional cost makes this a viable LSS algorithm in renal transplant patients. , In patients having tacrolimus trough concentrations outside the recommended range (<3 and >10 ng ml,1 in the treatment protocol in our institution) or having side-effects in spite of trough concentrations in the desired range, we can estimate AUC using this LSS for a better prediction of exposure. AIMS To develop and validate limited sampling strategy (LSS) equations to estimate area under the curve (AUC0,12) in renal transplant patients. METHODS Twenty-nine renal transplant patients (3,6 months post transplant) who were at steady state with respect to tacrolimus kinetics were included in this study. The blood samples starting with the predose (trough) and collected at fixed time points for 12 h were analysed by microparticle enzyme immunoassay. Linear regression analysis estimated the correlations of tacrolimus concentrations at different sampling time points with the total measured AUC0,12. By applying multiple stepwise linear regression analysis, LSS equations with acceptable correlation coefficients (R2), bias and precision were identified. The predictive performance of these models was validated by the jackknife technique. RESULTS Three models were identified, all with R2 , 0.907. Two point models included one with trough (C0) and 1.5 h postdose (C1.5), another with trough and 4 h postdose. Increasing the number of sampling time points to more than two increased R2 marginally (0.951 to 0.990). After jackknife validation, the two sampling time point (trough and 1.5 h postdose) model accurately predicted AUC0,12. Regression coefficient R2 = 0.951, intraclass correlation = 0.976, bias [95% confidence interval (CI)] 0.53% (,2.63, 3.69) and precision (95% CI) 6.35% (4.36, 8.35). CONCLUSION The two-point LSS equation [AUC0,12 = 19.16 + (6.75.C0) + (3.33.C1.5)] can be used as a predictable and accurate measure of AUC0,12 in stable renal transplant patients prescribed prednisolone and mycophenolate. [source] The percentage of prostate needle biopsy cores with carcinoma from the more involved side of the biopsy as a predictor of prostate specific antigen recurrence after radical prostatectomy,,CANCER, Issue 11 2003Results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database Abstract BACKGROUND The authors previously found that, although the total percentage of prostate needle biopsy cores with carcinoma was a significant predictor of prostate specific antigen (PSA) failure among men undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP), there was a trend toward a lower risk of recurrence in patients with positive bilateral biopsies, suggesting that high-volume, unilateral disease was a worse predictor of outcome than an equivalent number of positive cores distributed over two lobes. In the current study, the authors sought to compare the total percentage of cores with carcinoma directly with the percentage of cores from the more involved or dominant side of the prostate with carcinoma for their ability to predict outcome among men who underwent RP. METHODS A retrospective survey of 535 patients from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital database who underwent RP at 4 different equal-access medical centers between 1988 and 2002 was undertaken. The total percentage of cores positive was compared with the percentage of cores positive from the dominant and nondominant sides for their ability to predict biochemical recurrence after RP. The best predictor then was compared with the standard clinical variables PSA, biopsy Gleason score, and clinical stage in terms of ability to predict time to PSA recurrence after RP using multivariate analysis. RESULTS The adverse pathologic features of positive surgical margins and extracapsular extension were significantly more likely to be ipsilateral to the dominant side on the prostate biopsy. The percentage of cores positive from the dominant side provided slightly better prediction (concordance index [C] = 0.636) for PSA failure than the total percentage of cores positive (C = 0.596) and markedly better than the percentage of cores from the nondominant side (C = 0.509). Cutoff points for percentage of cores positive from the dominant side were identified (< 34%, 34,67%, and > 67%) that provided significant risk stratification for PSA failure (P < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the percentage of cores positive from the dominant side was the strongest independent predictor of PSA recurrence (P < 0.001). Biopsy Gleason score (P = 0.017) also was a significant, independent predictor of recurrence. There was a trend, which did not reach statistical significance, toward an association between greater PSA values and biochemical failure (P = 0.052). Combining the PSA level, biopsy Gleason score, and percentage of cores positive from the dominant side of the prostate resulted in a model that provided a high degree of prediction for PSA failure (C = 0.671). CONCLUSIONS The percentage of cores positive from the dominant side of the prostate was a slightly better predictor of PSA recurrence than was the total percentage of cores positive. Using the percentage of cores from the dominant side along with the PSA level and the biopsy Gleason score provided significant risk stratification for PSA failure. Cancer 2003. Published 2003 by the American Cancer Society. [source] Liquid-Liquid Stratified Flow through Horizontal ConduitsCHEMICAL ENGINEERING & TECHNOLOGY (CET), Issue 8 2005T. Sunder Raj Abstract The stratified configuration is one of the basic and most important distributions during two phase flow through horizontal pipes. A number of studies have been carried out to understand gas-liquid stratified flows. However, not much is known regarding the simultaneous flow of two immiscible liquids. There is no guarantee that the information available for gas-liquid cases can be extended to liquid-liquid flows. Therefore, the present work attempts a detailed investigation of liquid-liquid stratified flow through horizontal conduits. Gas-liquid flow exhibits either smooth or wavy stratified orientations, while liquid-liquid flow exhibits other distinct stratified patterns like three layer flow, oil dispersed in water, and water flow, etc. Due to this, regime maps and transition equations available for predicting the regimes in gas-liquid flow cannot be extended for liquid-liquid cases by merely substituting phase physical properties in the equations. Further efforts have been made to estimate the in-situ liquid holdup from experiments and theory. The analysis considers the pronounced effect of surface tension, and attempts to modify the Taitel-Dukler model to account for the curved interface observed in these cases. The curved interface model of Brauner has been validated with experimental data from the present work and those reported in literature. It gives a better prediction of liquid holdup in oil-water flows and reduces to the Taitel-Dukler model for air-water systems. [source] Stream communities across a rural,urban landscape gradientDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 4 2006Mark C. Urban ABSTRACT Rapid urbanization throughout the world is expected to cause extensive loss of biodiversity in the upcoming decades. Disturbances associated with urbanization frequently operate over multiple spatial scales such that local species extirpations have been attributed both to localized habitat degradation and to regional changes in land use. Urbanization also may shape stream communities by restricting species dispersal within and among stream reaches. In this patch-dynamics view, anthropogenic disturbances and isolation jointly reduce stream biodiversity in urbanizing landscapes. We evaluated predictions of stream invertebrate community composition and abundance based on variation in environmental conditions at five distinct spatial scales: stream habitats, reaches, riparian corridors and watersheds and their spatial location within the larger three-river basin. Despite strong associations between biodiversity loss and human density in this study, local stream habitat and stream reach conditions were poor predictors of community patterns. Instead, local community diversity and abundance were more accurately predicted by riparian vegetation and watershed landscape structure. Spatial coordinates associated with instream distances provided better predictions of stream communities than any of the environmental data sets. Together, results suggest that urbanization in the study region was associated with reduced stream invertebrate diversity through the alteration of landscape vegetation structure and patch connectivity. These findings suggest that maintaining and restoring watershed vegetation corridors in urban landscapes will aid efforts to conserve freshwater biodiversity. [source] Ecological relevance of laboratory determined temperature limits: colonization potential, biogeography and resilience of Antarctic invertebrates to environmental changeGLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, Issue 11 2010D. K. A. BARNES Abstract The relevance of laboratory experiments in predicting effects of climate change has been questioned, especially in Antarctica where sea temperatures are remarkably stable. Laboratory studies of Southern Ocean marine animal capacities to survive increasing temperature mainly utilize rapid temperature elevations, 100 ×,10 000 × faster than sea temperature is predicted to rise. However, due to small-scale temperature fluctuations these studies may be crucial for understanding colonization patterns and predicting survival particularly through interactions between thermal tolerance and migration. The colonization of disjunct shelves around Antarctica by larvae or adult drift requires crossing or exposure to, rapid temperature changes of up to 2,4 °C over days to weeks. Analyses of responses to warming at varying rates of temperature change in the laboratory allow better predictions of the potential species have for colonizing disjunct shelf areas (such as the Scotia Arc). Inhabiting greater diversities of localities increases the geographic and thermal range species experience. We suggest a strong link between short-term temperature tolerance, environmental range and prospects for surviving changing environments. [source] A variant of the dry-weight rank method for botanical analysis of grassland with dominance-based multipliersGRASS & FORAGE SCIENCE, Issue 4 2000G. O. Nijland A new variant of the dry-weight rank method for botanical investigation of grassland is described and its usefulness evaluated. Multipliers proportional to the dominance percentages of the three species with the highest dominance percentages are used instead of fixed multipliers. The method is theoretically more valid and applicable to a broader range of grasslands than the variants with fixed multipliers. It does not involve more costs and gives as good or better predictions of the dry-weight percentages than the variants with fixed multipliers. [source] SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES IN GAMES: AN APPLICATION TO THE OVERBIDDING PUZZLE,INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2009Olivier Armantier This article illustrates how the joint elicitation of subjective probabilities and preferences may help us understand behavior in games. We conduct an experiment to test whether biased probabilistic beliefs may explain overbidding in first-price auctions. The experimental outcomes indicate that subjects underestimate their probability of winning the auction, and indeed overbid. When provided with feedback on the precision of their predictions, subjects learn to make better predictions, and to curb significantly overbidding. The structural estimation of different behavioral models suggests that biased probabilistic beliefs are a driving force behind overbidding, and that risk aversion plays a lesser role than previously believed. [source] Use of slopelimiter techniques in traditional numerical methods for multi-phase flow in pipelines and wellsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL FOR NUMERICAL METHODS IN FLUIDS, Issue 7 2005R. J. Lorentzen Abstract The aim of this paper is to show how simple and traditional methods for simulating multi-phase flow can be improved by introducing higher order accuracy. Numerical diffusion is reduced to a minimum by using slopelimiter techniques, and better predictions of flow rates and pressure are obtained. Slopelimiter techniques, originally developed to achieve higher order of accuracy in Godunov's method, is applied to a method following a finite element approach and a predictor,corrector shooting technique. These methods are tested and compared to a Godunov-type scheme recently developed for multi-phase flow. Implementation of Godunov-type schemes for multi-phase flow tends to be a complicated and challenging task. Introducing the slopelimiter techniques in the finite element approach and the predictor,corrector shooting technique is however simple, and provides an overall reduction of the numerical diffusion. The focus is on using these techniques to improve the mass transport description, since this is the main concern in the applications needed. The presented schemes represent different semi-implicit approaches for simulating multi-phase flow. An evaluation of higher order extensions, as well as a comparison by itself, is of large interest. We present a model for two-phase flow in pipelines and wells, and an outline of the numerical methods and the extensions to second order spatial accuracy. Several examples motivated by applications in underbalanced drilling are presented, and the advantages of using higher order schemes are illustrated. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Comparison of genetic polymorphisms of the NAT2 gene between Korean and four other ethnic groupsJOURNAL OF CLINICAL PHARMACY & THERAPEUTICS, Issue 6 2009T. S. Kang MS Summary Background and objective:,N -acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2) is responsible for the acetylation of numerous drugs and in the transformation of aromatic and heterocyclinc amines into carcinogenic intermediates. Polymorphism of NAT2 may contribute to interindividual variability in such acetylation. The aim of this study was to determine the allele frequencies of polymorphisms of the NAT2 gene, analyse linkage disequilibrium (LD) block and haplotypes in Koreans and compare them with those of other ethnic groups. Methods:, We analysed genetic polymorphisms in all functional promoter and exons of the NAT2 gene by direct sequencing of genomic DNA from 192 healthy Korean subjects. The LD and haplotype blocks of these subjects were constructed from genotype data using an expectation,maximization algorithm. We compared these allele frequencies, LD block and haplotype structure with those of other ethnic groups registered on the International HapMap database. Results and discussion:, We identified 33 polymorphisms including six novel single nucleotide polymorphisms, ,10778T>C, ,10777A>G, ,10351A>G, ,10199C>T and ,10104G>T in promoter and 578C>T in exon2 (T193M) in the Korean subjects tested. All allele frequencies reported in the Koreans were similar to those of Asians except for one allele (rs4345600, ,9306A>G), whereas African and European groups had different frequencies in exon2. The haplotype structure and LD block among the five groups also revealed significant differences. Conclusion:, Ethnic differences in the NAT2 genotype frequencies may be one of the important factors explaining variability in cancer incidence and drug toxicity. Our observations could be useful in assessing the susceptibility of different populations to cancer and contribute to better predictions of the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of drugs that are metabolized by NAT2, in different populations. [source] Clinical versus statistical prediction: The contribution of Paul E. MeehlJOURNAL OF CLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY, Issue 10 2005William M. GroveArticle first published online: 22 JUL 200 The background of Paul E. Meehl's work on clinical versus statistical prediction is reviewed, with detailed analyses of his arguments. Meehl's four main contributions were the following: (a) he put the question, of whether clinical or statistical combinations of psychological data yielded better predictions, at center stage in applied psychology; (b) he convincingly argued, against an array of objections, that clinical versus statistical prediction was a real (not concocted) problem needing thorough study; (c) he meticulously and even-handedly dissected the logic of clinical inference from theoretical and probabilistic standpoints; and (c) he reviewed the studies available in 1954 and thereafter, which tested the validity of clinical versus statistical predictions. His early conclusion that the literature strongly favors statistical prediction has stood up extremely well, and his conceptual analyses of the prediction problem (especially his defense of applying aggregate-based probability statements to individual cases) have not been significantly improved since 1954. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Clin Psychol 61: 1233,1243, 2005. [source] How successful are dynamic factor models at forecasting output and inflation?JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 3 2008A meta-analytic approach Abstract This paper uses a meta-analysis to survey existing factor forecast applications for output and inflation and assesses what causes large factor models to perform better or more poorly at forecasting than other models. Our results suggest that factor models tend to outperform small models, whereas factor forecasts are slightly worse than pooled forecasts. Factor models deliver better predictions for US variables than for UK variables, for US output than for euro-area output and for euro-area inflation than for US inflation. The size of the dataset from which factors are extracted positively affects the relative factor forecast performance, whereas pre-selecting the variables included in the dataset did not improve factor forecasts in the past. Finally, the factor estimation technique may matter as well. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] FULL UNIAXIAL COMPRESSION CURVES FOR PREDICTING SENSORY TEXTURE QUALITY OF COOKED POTATOESJOURNAL OF TEXTURE STUDIES, Issue 2 2002ANETTE K. THYBO ABSTRACT The prediction of six different sensory texture attributes of twenty-seven potato samples based on uniaxial compression curve features and full uniaxial compressions curves is reported. The data set comprised five varieties, sorted in dry matter bins, and sampled at two storage times. The predictions of most of the sensory texture attributes from full compression curves performed better than just using curve features. Furthermore, force-deformation curves are shown to give slightly better predictions than stress-strain curves. For most of the texture attributes better predictions were obtained using uniaxial compression data from raw potato samples as compared to cooked samples. This study is meant to open up a debate on interpreting the information in uniaxial compression curves in relation to sensory texture quality. Multivariate analysis can handle this and can further give insight about where in the curve the information relevant for the predictions of the sensory attributes is found. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||