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Better Estimates (good + estimate)
Selected AbstractsSurface Heat Balance and Spatially Distributed Ablation Modelling at Koryto Glacier, Kamchatka Peninsula, RussiaGEOGRAFISKA ANNALER SERIES A: PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY, Issue 4 2004Keiko Konya Abstract To investigate the characteristics of ablation at Koryto Glacier, a mountain glacier under maritime climate in Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia, we made field observations from August to early September 2000. At a site near the equilibrium line, the 31-day average net radiation, sensible heat flux, and latent heat flux were 43, 59 and 31 W,2, respectively. We developed a new distributed ablation model, which only needs measurements of air temperature and global radiation at one site. Hourly ablation rates at this site obtained by the energy balance method are related to measured air temperature and global radiation by linear multiple regression. A different set of multiple regression coefficients is fitted for snow and ice surfaces. Better estimates of ablation rate can be obtained by this approach than by other temperature index models. These equations are then applied to each grid cell of a digital elevation model to estimate spatially distributed hourly melt. Air temperature is extrapolated using a constant temperature lapse rate and global radiation is distributed considering topographic effects. The model enables us to calculate the hourly spatial distribution of ablation rates within the glacier area and could well provide a realistic simulation of ablation over the whole glacier. [source] Estimating time dependent O-D trip tables during peak periodsJOURNAL OF ADVANCED TRANSPORTATION, Issue 3 2000Srinivas S. Pulugurtha Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) have been used to alleviate congestion problems arising due to demand during peak periods. The success of ITS strategies relies heavily on two factors: 1) the ability to accurately estimate the temporal and spatial distribution of travel demand on the transportation network during peak periods, and, 2) providing real-time route guidance to users. This paper addresses the first factor. A model to estimate time dependent origin-destination (O-D) trip tables in urban areas during peak periods is proposed. The daily peak travel period is divided into several time slices to facilitate simulation and modeling. In urban areas, a majority of the trips during peak periods are work trips. For illustration purposes, only peak period work trips are considered in this paper. The proposed methodology is based on the arrival pattern of trips at a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and the distribution of their travel times. The travel time matrix for the peak period, the O-D trip table for the peak period, and the number of trips expected to arrive at each TAZ at different work start times are inputs to the model. The model outputs are O-D trip tables for each time slice in the peak period. 1995 data for the Las Vegas metropolitan area are considered for testing and validating the model, and its application. The model is reasonably robust, but some lack of precision was observed. This is due to two possible reasons: 1) rounding-off, and, 2) low ratio of total number of trips to total number of O-D pair combinations. Hence, an attempt is made to study the effect of increasing this ratio on error estimates. The ratio is increased by multiplying each O-D pair trip element with a scaling factor. Better estimates were obtained. Computational issues involved with the simulation and modeling process are discussed. [source] Estimating Diversity in Unsampled Habitats of a Biogeographical ProvinceCONSERVATION BIOLOGY, Issue 3 2003Michael L. Rosenzweig A number of methods have been developed to overcome sample-size limits within a single habitat. We evaluated six of these methods to see whether they could also compensate for incomplete habitat samples. We applied them to the butterfly species of the 110 ecoregions of Canada and the United States. Two of the methods use the frequency of species that occur in a few of the sampled ecoregions. These two methods did not work. The other four methods estimate the asymptote of the species-accumulation curve ( the graph of "number of species in a set of samples" versus "number of species occurrences in those samples" ). The asymptote of this curve is the actual number of species in the system. Three of these extrapolation estimators produced good estimates of total diversity even when limited to 10% of the ecoregions. Good estimates depend on sampling ecoregions that are hyperdispersed in space. Clustered sampling designs ruin the usefulness of the three successful methods. To ascertain their generality, our results must be duplicated at other scales and for other taxa and in other provinces. Resumen: La estimación del número de especies en una provincia biogeográfica puede ser problemático. Se ha desarrollado un número de métodos para superar los límites del tamaño de muestra dentro de un solo hábitat. Evaluamos seis de estos métodos para ver si podrían compensar por muestras incompletas de hábitat. Aplicamos estos métodos a especies de mariposas de las 110 ecoregiones de Canadá y los Estados Unidos. Dos de los métodos usan la frecuencia de las especies que ocurren en algunas de las ecoregiones muestreadas. Estos dos métodos no sirvieron. Los otros cuatro métodos estimaron la asíntota de la curva de acumulación de especies ( la gráfica de "el número de especies en un juego de muestras" contra el "número de ocurrencias de especies en éstas muestras" ). La asíntota de ésta curva es el número real de especies en el sistema. Tres de éstos estimadores de extrapolación produjeron buenas estimaciones de la diversidad total aún cuando se limitaron al 10% de las ecoregiones. Las buenas estimaciones dependen del muestreo de ecoregiones altamente dispersas en el espacio. Los diseños de muestreos en agrupamientos arruinan la utilidad de los tres métodos exitosos. Para asegurar su generalidad, nuestros resultados deben ser duplicados a otras escalas y para otros taxones en otras provincias. [source] Control of transpiration in an irrigated Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantationPLANT CELL & ENVIRONMENT, Issue 2 2000D. A. White ABSTRACT Stomatal conductance and transpiration were measured concurrently in an irrigated Eucalyptus globulus Labill. plantation. Canopy stomatal conductance, canopy boundary layer conductance and the dimensionless decoupling coefficient (,) were calculated (a) summing the conductance of three canopy layers (gc) and (b) weighting the contribution of foliage according to the amount of radiation received (gc,). Canopy transpiration was then calculated from gc and gc, for , = 1 (Eeq), , = 0 (Eimp) and by weighting Eeq and Eimp using , (E,). Eeq, Eimp and E, were compared to transpiration estimated from measurements of heat pulse velocity. The mean value of , was 0·63. Transpiration calculated using gc and assuming perfect coupling (12·5 ± 0·9 mmol m,2 s,1) significantly overestimated measured values (8·7 ± 0·8 mmol m,2 s,1). Good estimates of canopy transpiration were obtained either (a) calculating E, separately for the individual canopy layers or (b) treating the canopy as a single layer and using gc, in a calculation of Eimp (, = 0). The latter approach only required measurement of stomatal conductance at a single canopy position but would be unsuitable for use in combined models of canopy transpiration and assimilation. It should however, be suitable for estimating transpiration in forests regardless of the degree of coupling. [source] Fragile X-associated Tremor/Ataxia Syndrome (FXTAS)DEVELOPMENTAL DISABILITIES RESEARCH REVIEW, Issue 1 2004Paul J. Hagerman Abstract Carriers of fragile X mental retardation 1 (FMR1) premutation alleles (55 to 200 CGG repeats) are generally spared the more serious neurodevelopmental problems associated with the full-mutation carriers (>200 repeats) of fragile X syndrome. However, some adult male premutation carriers (55,200 repeats) develop a neurological syndrome involving intention tremor, ataxia, dementia, parkinsonism, and autonomic dysfunction. In excess of one-third of male premutation carriers over 50 years of age develop the fragile X- associated tremor/ataxia syndrome (FXTAS). FXTAS also represents a new form of inclusion disease, with eosinophilic intranuclear inclusions found throughout the brain in both neurons and astrocytes. Because FXTAS appears to be relatively specific to male premutation carriers, who are known to possess elevated levels of FMR1 mRNA, the neuropathology may arise as a consequence of a toxic gain-of-function of the mRNA itself, although this proposal requires additional direct testing. One of the critical needs at present is a better estimate for the prevalence of this disorder, because FXTAS is likely to be underdiagnosed in the adult movement disorders clinics. MRDD Research Reviews 2004;10:25,30. © 2004 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Copper toxicity thresholds for important restoration grass species of the western United States,ENVIRONMENTAL TOXICOLOGY & CHEMISTRY, Issue 12 2002Mark W. Abstract Copper toxicity thresholds for plant species that are used in restoration activities in western North America have not been established. As a result, ecological risk assessments must rely on toxicity thresholds established for agronomic species, which usually differ from those of species used in restoration. Thus, risk assessors have the potential for classifying sites as phytotoxic to perennial, nonagronomic species and calling for intensive remediation activities that may not be necessary. The objective of this study was to provide a better estimate of Cu toxicity thresholds for five grass species that are commonly used in restoration efforts in the western United States. We used a greenhouse screening study where seedlings of introduced redtop (Agrostis gigantea Roth.), the native species slender wheatgrass (Elymus trachycaulus [Link] Gould ex Shinners var. Pryor), tufted hairgrass (Deschampsia caespitosa [L.] Beauvois), big bluegrass (Poa secunda J. Presl var. Sherman), and basin wildrye (Leymus cinereus [Scribner&Merrill] A. Löve var. Magnar) and the agricultural species common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were grown in sand culture and exposed to supplemental concentrations of soluble Cu of 0 (control), 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, and 300 mg/L. We determined six measures of toxicity: the 60-d mean lethal concentration (LC50), 60-d mean effective concentration (EC50)-plant, 60-d EC50-shoot, 60-d EC50-root, phytotoxicity threshold (PT50)-shoot, and the PT50-root. Results suggest that these restoration grass species generally have higher Cu tolerance than agronomic species reported in the past. Of the species tested, redtop appeared to be especially tolerant of high levels of substrate and tissue Cu. Values of EC50-plant for restoration grasses were between 283 and 710 mg Cu/L compared to 120 mg Cu/L for common wheat. Measured PT50-shoot values were between 737 and 10,792 mg Cu/ L. These reported thresholds should be more useful for risk assessors than those currently used, which are based largely on agronomic crops. [source] Adaptive robust force control for vehicle active suspensionsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADAPTIVE CONTROL AND SIGNAL PROCESSING, Issue 2 2004Supavut Chantranuwathana Abstract In this paper, the modular adaptive robust control (MARC) technique is applied to design the force loop controller of an electro-hydraulic active suspension system. A key advantage of this modular design approach lies in the fact that the adaptation algorithm can be designed for explicit estimation convergence. The effect of parameter adaptation on force tracking performance can be compensated and thus it is possible to guaranteed certain control performance. Experimental results from a quarter-car active suspension test rig show that when realistic external disturbances and measurement noises exist, the modular design achieves a better estimate than the non-modular ARC design. The improved estimation was found to result in control signals with slightly lower magnitude while maintaining similar tracking performance. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] A test of methods for estimating population size of the invasive land snail Achatina fulica in dense vegetationJOURNAL OF APPLIED ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2002Paul G. Craze Summary 1Physical inaccessibility often complicates censuses of poorly mobile organisms. We therefore assessed the effectiveness of using a sample of quadrat counts to generate a population estimate corrected for inaccessible areas. The result is directly applicable to management of the introduced snail Achatina fulica on Ile aux Aigrettes, a small island off Mauritius, but also has implications for counting this and similar species elsewhere. Accurate counting of A. fulica is important given that this species is such a widespread and serious pest. 2Counts were made in 17 quadrats taken from a grid covering the island. These were used to produce one population estimate by interpolating for the rest of the grid using GIS software (method 1). A second estimate assumed equal density of snails in accessible and inaccessible parts of the 17 quadrats, again with the population estimate interpolated (method 2). 3Four further quadrats were cleared of vegetation and, by comparison of counts before and after clearance, the relationship between initial count and true snail number was estimated. This resulted in two further population estimates, with the relationship used to adjust counts in the 17 experimental quadrats before interpolation (methods 3 and 4). 4All four estimates were tested using 35 additional quadrats of two types. Type 1 quadrats were physically cleared of vegetation; type 2 quadrats were fully accessible without clearance. Predicted counts in these quadrats were assessed for accuracy by comparison with actual counts. 5The method 1 estimate was clearly inadequate; method 4 gave a consistent overestimate; method 2 gave the smallest error in both quadrat types. In type 1 quadrats, method 2 and 3 estimates were not significantly different and method 2 had a slight tendency to underestimate. Overall, for studies of A. fulica, method 2 is recommended. However, it should be noted that the study took place towards the end of the wet season. In the dry season, damp refuges under inaccessible vegetation may be more important and methods 3 and 4 may then give a better estimate. 6The population of A. fulica with shell length > 10 mm on Ile aux Aigrettes near the end of the wet season in 2000 was between 37 300 and 45 100, with 39 700 being the best estimate. 7The results underline the importance of considering inaccessible areas when accurate counts of species are needed, and a method is suggested by which a simple census technique can be adjusted. In the case of A. fulica, more accurate estimates of population size and distribution are invaluable in the management, monitoring and eradication of this invasive species. [source] The impact of lianas on 10 years of tree growth and mortality on Barro Colorado Island, PanamaJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 4 2010Laura L. Ingwell Summary 1. Lianas compete intensely with trees, but few studies have examined long-term effects of liana infestation on tree growth and mortality. We quantified the effects of lianas in tree crowns (n = 2907) and rooted within 2 m of trees (n = 1086) on growth and mortality of 30 tree species from 1995 to 2005 on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, documented liana infestation in tree crowns in 1996 and 2007 to determine the dynamics of liana infestation, and quantified liana infestation in the crowns of 3231 additional canopy trees (d.b.h. ,20 cm) in 2007 to compare with the same metric determined by previous studies in 1967 and 1980. 2. Severe liana infestation increased tree mortality: 21% of liana-free trees in 1996 had died by 2007, whereas 42% of trees with more than 75% of the crown infested by lianas in 1996 had died by 2007. 3. Liana infestation of tree crowns significantly reduced tree growth, particularly on sun-exposed trees. The proximity of rooted lianas significantly reduced the growth of shaded trees. 4. Liana infestation was dynamic: 10.9% of trees with severe liana infestation in their crowns in 1996 had shed all of their lianas by 2007 and 5.3% of trees with no lianas in their crown in 1996 had severe liana infestation in 2007. 5. Liana infestation was common: lianas were present in 53% of trees of the 30 focal species. Including lianas rooted within 2 m of the tree increased this percentage to 78%. Using both above- and below-ground measures may provide a better estimate of liana competition than either measure alone. 6. Liana infestation is increasing on BCI. Lianas were present in the crowns of 73.6% of canopy trees (d.b.h. ,20 cm). Liana canopy infestation was 57% higher than in 1980 and 65% higher than in 1967, which is consistent with reported increases in liana abundance, biomass, and leaf and flower production. 7.,Synthesis. We used one of the largest studies ever conducted on lianas to confirm the negative effects of lianas on tree growth and survival over 10 years. Liana infestation of trees was widespread, dynamic and increasing on BCI. [source] Influence of Tithonia diversifolia and triple superphosphate on dissolution and effectiveness of phosphate rock in acidic soilJOURNAL OF PLANT NUTRITION AND SOIL SCIENCE, Issue 5 2006Isaac Savini Abstract An incubation and a pot experiment were conducted to evaluate the dissolution and agronomic effectiveness of a less reactive phosphate rock, Busumbu soft ore (BPR), in an Oxisol in Kenya. Resin (anion and anion + cation)-extractable P and sequentially extracted P with 0.5 M NaHCO3, 0.1 M NaOH, and 1 M HCl were analyzed. Dissolution was determined from the increase in anion resin (AER),, NaHCO3 -, and NaOH-extractable P in soil amended with PR compared with the control soil. Where P was applied, resin P significantly increased above the no-P treatment. Busumbu-PR solubility was low and did not increase significantly in 16 weeks. Anion + cation (ACER)-extractable P was generally greater than AER-P. The difference was greater for PR than for triple superphosphate (TSP). The ACER extraction may be a better estimate of plant P availability, particularly when poorly soluble P sources are used. Addition of P fertilizers alone or in combination with Tithonia diversifolia (TSP, BPR, TSP + Tithonia, and BPR + Tithonia) increased the concentration of labile inorganic P pools (NaHCO3 - and NaOH-Pi). Cumulative evolved CO2 was significantly correlated with cumulative N mineralized from Tithonia (r, 0.51, p < 0.05). Decrease in pH caused NH -N accumulation while NO -N remained low where Tithonia was incorporated at all sampling times. However, when pH was increased, NH -N declined with a corresponding rise in NO -N. Tithonia significantly depressed soil exchangeable acidity relative to control with time. A significant increase (p < 0.05) was observed for P uptake but not dry-mass production in maize where BPR was applied. The variations in yield and P uptake due to source and rates of application were statistically significant. At any given P rate, highest yields were obtained with Tithonia alone. Combination of Busumbu PR with TSP or Tithonia did not enhance the effectiveness of the PR. The poor dissolution and plant P uptake of BPR may be related to the high Fe content in the PR material. [source] Thirty-year durability of a 20-mil PVC geomembraneJOURNAL OF VINYL & ADDITIVE TECHNOLOGY, Issue 4 2004E. J. Newman In 1971, twenty circular aquaculture ponds were constructed for the W. K. Kellogg Biological Research Station in Hickory Corners, Michigan. The 30.5-m-diameter research ponds were lined using a 0.51-mm-thick fish-grade PVC geomembrane. Over the years the ponds became congested with dense, persistent stands of cattails, trees, and other vegetation, which required the ponds to be cleared and relined in September 2000 in order to allow the initiation of new experiments. The lack of holes in the exhumed geomembrane suggests that it resisted biological attack from microorganisms and also root penetration. Laboratory testing shows that the tensile behavior of the nearly 30-year-old PVC geomembrane is within current specifications for new 0.51-mm-thick PVC geomembranes. Test results also indicate that performing laboratory tests at in-situ moisture conditions provides a better estimate of the field properties of PVC geomembranes than desiccating the material prior to testing, as is required by ASTM Standard Test Methods. J. Vinyl Addit. Technol. 10:168,173, 2004. © 2004 Society of Plastics Engineers. [source] Reconstruction Of The Subsurface Structure Of The Marquez Impact Crater In Leon County, Texas, Usa, Based On Well-Log And Gravity DataMETEORITICS & PLANETARY SCIENCE, Issue 11 2001Alan M. Wong New gravity and magnetic anomaly data collected over the Marquez Dome have been combined with well-log and seismic reflection information to develop a better estimate of the overall geometry of the structure. A three-dimensional model constructed to a depth of 2000 m from all available information indicates a complex crater 13 km in diameter with an uplift in the center of at least 1120 m. The zone of deformation associated with the cratering event is limited to a depth of <1720 m. No impact breccias were recovered in drilling at two locations, 1.1 and 2 km from the center of the structure, and the central uplift may be the only prominent remnant of this impact into unconsolidated, water-rich sediments. The magnetic anomaly field shows no correlation with the location and extent of the structure. [source] Solar UV Geometric Conversion Factors: Horizontal Plane to Cylinder Model,PHOTOCHEMISTRY & PHOTOBIOLOGY, Issue 2 2010Stanley J. Pope Most solar UV measurements are relative to the horizontal plane. However, problems arise when one uses those UV measurements to perform risk or benefit assessments because they do not yield the actual doses people get while they are outdoors. To better estimate the UV doses people actually get while outdoors, scientists need geometric conversion factors (GCF) that change horizontal plane irradiances to average irradiances on the human body. Here we describe a simple geometric method that changes unweighted, erythemally weighted and previtamin D3 -weighted UV irradiances on the horizontal plane to full cylinder and semicylinder irradiances. Scientists can use the full cylinder model to represent the complete human body, while they can use the semicylinder model to represent the face, shoulders, tops of hands and feet. We present daily, monthly and seasonally calculated averages of the GCF for these cylinder models every 5° from 20 to 70°N so that scientists can now get realistic UV doses for people who are outdoors doing a variety of different activities. The GCF show that people actually get less than half their annual erythemally weighted, and consequently half their previtamin D3 -weighted, UV doses relative to the horizontal plane. Thus, scientists can now perform realistic UV risk and benefit assessments. [source] Donor-Derived Disease Transmission Events in the United States: Data Reviewed by the OPTN/UNOS Disease Transmission Advisory CommitteeAMERICAN JOURNAL OF TRANSPLANTATION, Issue 8 2009M. G. Ison Donor-derived disease transmission is increasingly recognized as a source of morbidity and mortality among transplant recipients. Policy 4.7 of the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) currently requires reporting of donor-derived events. All potential donor-derived transmission events (PDDTE) reported to OPTN/UNOS were reviewed by the Disease Transmission Advisory Committee (DTAC). Summary data from January 1, 2005,December 31, 2007, were prepared for presentation. Reports of PDDTE have increased from 7 in 2005, the first full year data were collected, to 60 in 2006 and to 97 in 2007. More detailed information is available for 2007; a classification system for determining likelihood of donor-derived transmission was utilized. In 2007, there were four proven and one possible donor-derived malignancy transmissions and four proven, two probable and six possible donor-derived infectious diseases transmissions. There were nine reported recipient deaths attributable to proven donor transmissions events arising from eight donors during 2007. Although recognized transmission events resulted in significant morbidity and mortality, transmission was reported in only 0.96% of deceased donor donations overall. Improved reporting, through enhanced recognition and communication, will be critical to better estimate the transmission risk of infection and malignancy through organ transplantation. [source] Der Census of Marine Life zieht Bilanz.BIOLOGIE IN UNSERER ZEIT (BIUZ), Issue 4 2010Globale "Volkszählung" unter Wasser Abstract Ein internationales Großprojekt zur Erfassung der Vielfalt des Lebens im Meer, der Census of Marine Life, wird nach zehn Jahren in diesem Herbst mit einer großen Abschlussveranstaltung in London zu Ende gehen. Mit einer Vielzahl von Teilprojekten wurde das Leben von den tropischen Stränden über Seeberge, hydrothermale Quellen und polare Meere bis in die Tiefseebecken untersucht, um einen Überblick über die Artenvielfalt zu bekommen und Erkenntnisse darüber zu gewinnen, wie die Vielfalt des Lebens im Meer beeinflusst und gesteuert wird. Einige der Teilprojekte werden beispielhaft dargestellt, insbesondere das Projekt CeDAMar, das vom Senckenberg-Institut geleitet wird. CeDAMar erforscht die großen Tiefseebecken, die etwa die Hälfte der Erdoberfläche ausmachen und noch sehr wenig bekannt sind. Der wachsende Rohstoffbedarf rückt diesen bisher weitgehend unbeeinflussten Lebensraum in das Interesse der Industrie, und Experten von CeDAMar haben durch ihre Fachkompetenz bei der Erstellung von Richtlinien zum Schutz des Meeresbodens in internationalen Gewässern einen sehr konkreten Beitrag geleistet. Global Underwater Census , a large-scale project is taking stock The Census of Marine Life, an international large-scale project to assess the diversity of life in the ocean, will end this fall after a decade of discovery with a grand finale in London. Many so-called field projects were established to study life from tropical beaches, seamounts, hydrothermal vents, to polar seas and abyssal plains in order to get a better estimate of marine species diversity and gain insight into processes that influence the diversity of life in the oceans. Some of the field projects are presented, including the project CeDAMar under the leadership of the Senckenberg Institute. The study area of CeDAMar is abyssal plains, which comprise about half of the Earth's surface yet are very little known. Mankind's growing demand on minerals and other resources has awoken the industry's interest in a part of the ocean that so far has been relatively pristine. CeDAMar scientists have helped with their expertise to establish guidelines for the protection of the seafloor in international waters, thus demonstrating how concrete the influence of deep-sea exploration on human society can become. [source] Using fractional exhaled nitric oxide to guide asthma therapy: design and methodological issues for ASthma TReatment ALgorithm studiesCLINICAL & EXPERIMENTAL ALLERGY, Issue 4 2009P. G. Gibson Prof. Summary Background Current asthma guidelines recommend treatment based on the assessment of asthma control using symptoms and lung function. Noninvasive markers are an attractive way to modify therapy since they offer improvedselection of active treatment(s) based on individual response, and improvedtitration of treatment using markers that are better related to treatment outcomes. Aims: To review the methodological and design features of noninvasive marker studies in asthma. Methods Systematic assessment of published randomized trials of asthma therapy guided by fraction of exhaled nitric oxide(FENO). Results FENO has appeal as a marker to adjust asthma therapy since it is readily measured, gives reproducible results, and is responsive to changes in inhaled corticosteroid doses. However, the five randomised trials of FENO guided therapy have had mixed results. This may be because there are specific design and methodological issues that need to be addressed in the conduct of ASthma TReatment ALgorithm(ASTRAL) studies. There needs to be a clear dose response relationship for the active drugs used and the outcomes measured. The algorithm decision points should be based on outcomes in the population of interest rather than the range of values in healthy people, and the algorithm used needs to provide a sufficiently different result to clinical decision making in order for there to be any discernible benefit. A new metric is required to assess the algorithm performance, and the discordance:concordance(DC) ratio can assist with this. Conclusion Incorporating these design features into future FENO studies should improve the study performance and aid in obtaining a better estimate of the value of FENO guided asthma therapy. [source] Fossils provide better estimates of ancestral body size than do extant taxa in fishesACTA ZOOLOGICA, Issue 2009James S. Albert Abstract The use of fossils in studies of character evolution is an active area of research. Characters from fossils have been viewed as less informative or more subjective than comparable information from extant taxa. However, fossils are often the only known representatives of many higher taxa, including some of the earliest forms, and have been important in determining character polarity and filling morphological gaps. Here we evaluate the influence of fossils on the interpretation of character evolution by comparing estimates of ancestral body size in fishes (non-tetrapod craniates) from two large and previously unpublished datasets; a palaeontological dataset representing all principal clades from throughout the Phanerozoic, and a macroecological dataset for all 515 families of living (Recent) fishes. Ancestral size was estimated from phylogenetically based (i.e. parsimony) optimization methods. Ancestral size estimates obtained from analysis of extant fish families are five to eight times larger than estimates using fossil members of the same higher taxa. These disparities arise from differential survival of large-bodied members of early branching lineages, and are not statistical or taphonomic artefacts. Estimates of ancestral size obtained from a limited but judicious selection of fossil fish taxa are more accurate than estimates from a complete dataset of extant fishes. [source] Application of a habitat-based model to estimate effective longline fishing effort and relative abundance of Pacific bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus)FISHERIES OCEANOGRAPHY, Issue 3 2002Keith A. Bigelow A new habitat-based model is developed to improve estimates of relative abundance of Pacific bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus). The model provides estimates of `effective' longline effort and therefore better estimates of catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) by incorporating information on the variation in longline fishing depth and depth of bigeye tuna preferred habitat. The essential elements in the model are: (1) estimation of the depth distribution of the longline gear, using information on gear configuration and ocean currents; (2) estimation of the depth distribution of bigeye tuna, based on habitat preference and oceanographic data; (3) estimation of effective longline effort, using fine-scale Japanese longline fishery data; and (4) aggregation of catch and effective effort over appropriate spatial zones to produce revised time series of CPUE. Model results indicate that effective effort has increased in both the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO) and eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). In the WCPO, effective effort increased by 43% from the late 1960s to the late 1980s due primarily to the increased effectiveness of effort (deeper longline sets) rather than to increased nominal effort. Over the same period, effective effort increased 250% in the EPO due primarily to increased nominal effort. Nominal and standardized CPUE indices in the EPO show similar trends , a decline during the 1960s, a period of stability in the 1970s, high values during 1985,1986 and a decline thereafter. In the WCPO, nominal CPUE is stable over the time-series; however, standardized CPUE has declined by ,50%. If estimates of standardized CPUE accurately reflect relative abundance, then we have documented substantial reductions of bigeye tuna abundance for some regions in the Pacific Ocean. A decline in standardized CPUE in the subtropical gyres concurrent with stability in equatorial areas may represent a contraction in the range of the population resulting from a decline in population abundance. The sensitivity of the results to the habitat (temperature and oxygen) assumptions was tested using Monte Carlo simulations. [source] On the use of partial probability weighted moments in the analysis of hydrological extremesHYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 10 2007Ugo Moisello Abstract The use of partial probability weighted moments (PPWM) for estimating hydrological extremes is compared to that of probability weighted moments (PWM). Firstly, estimates from at-site data are considered. Two Monte Carlo analyses, conducted using continuous and empirical parent distributions (of peak discharge and daily rainfall annual maxima) and applying four different distributions (Gumbel, Fréchet, GEV and generalized Pareto), show that the estimates obtained from PPWMs are better than those obtained from PWMs if the parent distribution is unknown, as happens in practice. Secondly, the use of partial L-moments (obtained from PPWMs) as diagnostic tools is considered. The theoretical partial L-diagrams are compared with the experimental data. Five different distributions (exponential, Pareto, Gumbel, GEV and generalized Pareto) and 297 samples of peak discharge annual maxima are considered. Finally, the use of PPWMs with regional data is investigated. Three different kinds of regional analyses are considered. The first kind is the regression of quantile estimates on basin area. The study is conducted applying the GEV distribution to peak discharge annual maxima. The regressions obtained with PPWMs are slightly better than those obtained with PWMs. The second kind of regional analysis is the parametric one, of which four different models are considered. The congruence between local and regional estimates is examined, using peak discharge annual maxima. The congruence degree is sometimes higher for PPWMs, sometimes for PWMs. The third kind of regional analysis uses the index flood method. The study, conducted applying the GEV distribution to synthetic data from a lognormal joint distribution, shows that better estimates are obtained sometimes from PPWMs, sometimes from PWMs. All the results seem to indicate that using PPWMs can constitute a valid tool, provided that the influence of ouliers, of course higher with censored samples, is kept under control. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] An evaluation of sediment rating curves for estimating suspended sediment concentrations for subsequent flux calculations,HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, Issue 17 2003Arthur J. Horowitz Abstract In the absence of actual suspended sediment concentration (SSC) measurements, hydrologists have used sediment rating (sediment transport) curves to estimate (predict) SSCs for subsequent flux calculations. Various evaluations of the sediment rating-curve method were made using data from long-term, daily sediment-measuring sites within large (>1 000 000 km2), medium (<1 000 000 to >1000 km2), and small (<1000 km2) river basins in the USA and Europe relative to the estimation of suspended sediment fluxes. The evaluations address such issues as the accuracy of flux estimations for various levels of temporal resolution as well as the impact of sampling frequency on the magnitude of flux estimation errors. The sediment rating-curve method tends to underpredict high, and overpredict low SSCs. As such, the range of errors associated with concomitant flux estimates for relatively short time-frames (e.g. daily, weekly) are likely to be substantially larger than those associated with longer time-frames (e.g. quarterly, annually) because the over- and underpredictions do not have sufficient time to balance each other. Hence, when error limits must be kept under ±20%, temporal resolution probably should be limited to quarterly or greater. The evaluations indicate that over periods of 20 or more years, errors of <1% can be achieved using a single sediment rating curve based on data spanning the entire period. However, somewhat better estimates for the entire period, and markedly better annual estimates within the period, can be obtained if individual annual sediment rating curves are used instead. Relatively accurate (errors <±20%) annual suspended sediment fluxes can be obtained from hydrologically based monthly measurements/samples. For 5-year periods or longer, similar results can be obtained from measurements/samples collected once every 2 months. In either case, hydrologically based sampling, as opposed to calendar-based sampling is likely to limit the magnitude of flux estimation errors. Published in 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Evaluation of an indirect serum ELISA and a bacteriological faecal culture test for diagnosis of Salmonella serotype Dublin in cattle using latent class modelsJOURNAL OF APPLIED MICROBIOLOGY, Issue 2 2004L.R. Nielsen Abstract Aims:, To evaluate a conventional bacteriological test based on faecal culture and an indirect serum ELISA for detection of S. Dublin infected cattle. To compare the predictive values of the two tests in relation to the prevalence. Methods and Results:, A total of 4531 paired samples from cattle in 29 dairy herds were analysed for presence of S. Dublin bacteria in faeces and immunoglobulins directed against S. Dublin lipopolysaccharide in an indirect serum ELISA. Sensitivity and specificity were estimated at two ELISA cut-off values using a validation method based on latent class models, which presumably provides less biased results than traditional validation methods. Stratification of data into three age groups gave significantly better estimates of test performance of the ELISA. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed for comparison of overall performance of the ELISA between the three age groups. The sensitivity of the faecal culture test was low (6,14%). ELISA appeared to have a higher validity for animals aged 100,299 days of age than older or younger animals. Overall, the negative predictive value of the ELISA was 2,10 times higher than for the faecal culture test at realistic prevalence of infection in the test population. Conclusions:, The diagnostic sensitivity of the faecal culture test for detection of S. Dublin is poor, the specificity is 1. The superior sensitivity and negative predictive value of the serum ELISA makes this test preferable to faecal culture as an initial screening test and for certification of herds not infected with S. Dublin. Significance and Impact of the Study:, A quantitative estimate of the sensitivity of a faecal culture test for S. Dublin in a general population was provided. ELISA was shown to be an appropriate alternative diagnostic test. Preferably, samples from animals aged 100,299 days of age should be used as these give the best overall performance of the ELISA. Plots of ROC curves and predictive values in relation to prevalence facilitates optimisation of the ELISA cut-off value. [source] Bone Strength at Clinically Relevant Sites Displays Substantial Heterogeneity and Is Best Predicted From Site-Specific Bone DensitometryJOURNAL OF BONE AND MINERAL RESEARCH, Issue 1 2002Felix Eckstein Ph.D. Abstract In this study we test the hypotheses that mechanical bone strength in elderly individuals displays substantial heterogeneity among clinically relevant skeletal sites, that ex situ dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) provides better estimates of bone strength than in situ DXA, but that a site-specific approach of bone densitometry is nevertheless superior for optimal prediction of bone failure under in situ conditions. DXA measurements were obtained of the lumbar spine, the left femur, the left radius, and the total body in 110 human cadavers (age, 80.6 ± 10.5 years; 72 female, 38 male), including the skin and soft tissues. The bones were then excised, spinal and femoral DXA being repeated ex situ. Mechanical failure tests were performed on thoracic vertebra 10 and lumbar vertebra 3 (compressive loading of a functional unit), the left and right femur (side impact and vertical loading configuration), and the left and right distal radius (fall configuration, axial compression, and 3-point-bending). The failure loads displayed only very moderate correlation among sites (r = 0.39 to 0.63). Ex situ DXA displayed slightly higher correlations with failure loads compared with those of in situ DXA, but the differences were not significant and relatively small. Under in situ conditions, DXA predicted 50-60% of the variability in bone failure loads at identical (or closely adjacent) sites, but only around 20-35% at distant sites, advocating a site-specific approach of densitometry. These data suggest that mechanical competence in the elderly is governed by strong regional variation, and that its loss in osteoporosis may not represent a strictly systemic process. [source] Bootstrap methods for assessing the performance of near-infrared pattern classification techniquesJOURNAL OF CHEMOMETRICS, Issue 5 2002Brandye M. Smith Abstract Two parametric bootstrap techniques were applied to near-infrared (NIR) pattern classification models for two classes of microcrystalline cellulose, Avicel® PH101 and PH102, which differ only in particle size. The development of pattern classification models for similar substances is difficult, since their characteristic clusters overlap. Bootstrapping was used to enlarge small test sets for a better approximation of the overlapping area of these nearly identical substances, consequently resulting in better estimates of misclassification rates. A bootstrap that resampled the residuals, referred to as the outside model space bootstrap in this paper, and a novel bootstrap that resampled principal component scores, referred to as the inside model space bootstrap, were studied. A comparison revealed that classification rates for both bootstrap techniques were similar to the original test set classification rates. The bootstrap method developed in this study, which resampled the principal component scores, was more effective for estimating misclassification volumes than the residual-resampling method. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Regional variability of climate,growth relationships in Pinus cembra high elevation forests in the AlpsJOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 5 2007MARCO CARRER Summary 1The tree-ring growth response of stone pine (Pinus cembra L.) to climatic variability was studied in the Alps. The aims were (i) to assess tree-ring growth patterns at different spatial-temporal scales; (ii) to identify the climate parameters that explain most of the variability in radial growth at different time domains; and (iii) to study past and current trends in radial growth and climate,growth relationships at different locations. 2High- and low-frequency stone pine chronologies were compiled for 30 treeline sites on the French and Italian Alps. We used gridded climate data computed from 200 years of instrumental records from an extensive Alpine network. Climate,growth relationships were computed with bootstrap correlation functions and their stationarity and consistency over time assessed with moving correlation. 3No spatial patterns were detected in stone pine chronology statistics despite the regional clustering observed in tree-ring series and climate responses. This can be attributed to (i) local weather variability; (ii) different biophysical conditions caused by soil moisture, solar radiation, snowmelt dynamics and growing season length; and (iii) forest stand history and age structure, the expression of long-term land use and disturbances. 4The exceptionally long-term climate records allowed significant stone pine growth response changes to be assessed at both annual and decadal time scales. Winter conditions and spring,summer temperatures mainly affected the growing season length, in addition to site carbon and water balance. Most of these limiting factors varied spatially and temporally along the latitudinal and longitudinal gradients in response to the corresponding changes in local conditions. 5Our results show evidence of a clear response variability of Pinus cembra to climate limiting factors, at both spatial and temporal scale. Such knowledge extended to other species and regions will provide better estimates of the effect of climate variability on species distribution and dynamics within global change scenarios and more accurate past climate reconstruction and forest ecosystem modelling. [source] Fusing Visual and Inertial Sensing to Recover Robot Ego-motionJOURNAL OF FIELD ROBOTICS (FORMERLY JOURNAL OF ROBOTIC SYSTEMS), Issue 1 2004Guillem Alenyà A method for estimating mobile robot ego-motion is presented, which relies on tracking contours in real-time images acquired with a calibrated monocular video system. After fitting an active contour to an object in the image, 3D motion is derived from the affine deformations suffered by the contour in an image sequence. More than one object can be tracked at the same time, yielding some different pose estimations. Then, improvements in pose determination are achieved by fusing all these different estimations. Inertial information is used to obtain better estimates, as it introduces in the tracking algorithm a measure of the real velocity. Inertial information is also used to eliminate some ambiguities arising from the use of a monocular image sequence. As the algorithms developed are intended to be used in real-time control systems, considerations on computation costs are taken into account. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [source] Optimal sampling frequency for volatility forecast models for the Indian stock marketsJOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 1 2009Malay Bhattacharyya Abstract This paper evaluates the performance of conditional variance models using high-frequency data of the National Stock Index (S&P CNX NIFTY) and attempts to determine the optimal sampling frequency for the best daily volatility forecast. A linear combination of the realized volatilities calculated at two different frequencies is used as benchmark to evaluate the volatility forecasting ability of the conditional variance models (GARCH (1, 1)) at different sampling frequencies. From the analysis, it is found that sampling at 30 minutes gives the best forecast for daily volatility. The forecasting ability of these models is deteriorated, however, by the non-normal property of mean adjusted returns, which is an assumption in conditional variance models. Nevertheless, the optimum frequency remained the same even in the case of different models (EGARCH and PARCH) and different error distribution (generalized error distribution, GED) where the error is reduced to a certain extent by incorporating the asymmetric effect on volatility. Our analysis also suggests that GARCH models with GED innovations or EGRACH and PARCH models would give better estimates of volatility with lower forecast error estimates. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] More on the effectiveness of public spending on health care and education: a covariance structure modelJOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, Issue 6 2003Emanuele Baldacci Using data for a sample of developing countries and transition economies, this paper estimates the relationship between government spending on health care and education and selected social indicators. Unlike previous studies, where social indicators are used as proxies for the unobservable health and education status of the population, this paper estimates a latent variable model. The findings suggest that public spending is an important determinant of social outcomes, particularly in the education sector. Overall, the latent variable approach yields better estimates of a social production function than the traditional approach, with higher elasticities of social indicators with respect to income and spending, therefore providing stronger evidence that increases in public spending do have a positive impact on social outcomes. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Eigenfactor: Does the principle of repeated improvement result in better estimates than raw citation counts?JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN SOCIETY FOR INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, Issue 13 2008Philip M. Davis Eigenfactor.org, a journal evaluation tool that uses an iterative algorithm to weight citations (similar to the PageRank algorithm used for Google), has been proposed as a more valid method for calculating the impact of journals. The purpose of this brief communication is to investigate whether the principle of repeated improvement provides different rankings of journals than does a simple unweighted citation count (the method used by the Institute for Scientific Information@ [ISI]). [source] Evidence for Changing Flood Risk in New England Since the Late 20th Century,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 2 2009Mathias J. Collins Abstract:, Long-term flow records for watersheds with minimal human influence have shown trends in recent decades toward increasing streamflow at regional and national scales, especially for low flow quantiles like the annual minimum and annual median flows. Trends for high flow quantiles are less clear, despite recent research showing increased precipitation in the conterminous United States over the last century that has been brought about primarily by an increased frequency and intensity of events in the upper 10th percentile of the daily precipitation distribution , particularly in the Northeast. This study investigates trends in 28 long-term annual flood series for New England watersheds with dominantly natural streamflow. The flood series are an average of 75 years in length and are continuous through 2006. Twenty-five series show upward trends via the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, 40% (10) of which are statistically significant (p < 0.1). Moreover, an average standardized departures series for 23 of the study gages indicates that increasing flood magnitudes in New England occurred as a step change around 1970. The timing of this is broadly synchronous with a phase change in the low frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation, a prominent upper atmospheric circulation pattern that is known to effect climate variability along the United States east coast. Identifiable hydroclimatic shifts should be considered when the affected flow records are used for flood frequency analyses. Special treatment of the flood series can improve the analyses and provide better estimates of flood magnitudes and frequencies under the prevailing hydroclimatic condition. [source] Evolutionary and statistical properties of three genetic distancesMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 8 2002Steven T. Kalinowski Abstract Many genetic distances have been developed to summarize allele frequency differences between populations. I review the evolutionary and statistical properties of three popular genetic distances: DS, DA, and ,, using computer simulation of two simple evolutionary histories: an isolation model of population divergence and an equilibrium migration model. The effect of effective population size, mutation rate, and mutation mechanism upon the parametric value between pairs of populations in these models explored, and the unique properties of each distance are described. The effect of these evolutionary parameters on study design is also investigated and similar results are found for each genetic distance in each model of evolution: large sample sizes are warranted when populations are relatively genetically similar; and loci with more alleles produce better estimates of genetic distance. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||