Home About us Contact
|
Home About us Contact | ||
|
|
||
General-circulation Model (general-circulation + model)
Selected AbstractsImpact of global warming on ENSO variability using the coupled giss GCM/ZC modelINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, Issue 10 2006Dr. Timothy Eichler Research Scientist Abstract This study uses a hybrid coupled model (referred to as the general-circulation model (GCM)/Zebiak/Cane (ZC) model), which consists of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies' (GISS) Atmospheric general-circulation model (AGCM) coupled to the oceanic component of the ZC intermediate model to assess the impact of global warming on El Niño behavior, with and without the influence of heat introduced from the subtropical Pacific (via subtropical cell (STC) pathway). The baseline GCM/ZC model produces El Niño variability with a two year periodicity and an amplitude of approximately half the magnitude of observed El Niño. The GCM/ZC model also produces an appropriate atmospheric global response to El Niño/southern oscillation (ENSO) as shown by composites of 500 hPa heights, sea-level pressure (SLP), 200 hPa wind, and precipitation during El Niño and La Niña periods. To evaluate the importance of global warming on ENSO variability, 2× CO2 and 4× CO2 transient simulations were done increasing the atmospheric CO2 one percent per year, then extending the runs for an additional 70 years to obtain equilibrium climates for each run. An additional set of global-warming simulations was run after including a STC parameterization generated by computing 5-year running means of the sea-surface temperature (SST) difference between a transient run and the 1× CO2 GCM/ZC run at the anticipated subduction zones (160,130°W, 20,40°N and 20,44°S, 160,130°W) and adding it to the base of the equatorial mixed-layer of the ZC model with a time lag of 15 years. This effectively alters the vertical temperature gradient of the ZC model, which affects SST via upwelling. Two features of the GCM/ZC response to global warming are emphasized. Firstly, the inclusion of the STC results in a major redistribution of heat across the equatorial Pacific, leading to an El Niño-like response in the final equilibrium solution with less variability about the mean. The global warming aspect due to the El Niño-like response results in a positive feedback on global warming, which causes a higher global surface-air temperature (SAT) than identical transient simulations without inclusion of the STC. Secondly, including the STC effect produces a far greater magnitude of global ENSO-like impact because of the reduction of, or even the reversal of, the equatorial Pacific longitudinal SST gradient. The implications of such an extreme climate scenario are discussed. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society [source] A new fast stratospheric ozone chemistry scheme in an intermediate general-circulation model.THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 610 2005I: Description, evaluation Abstract Simulation of future climate-composition changes requires simulations of coupled dynamical-radiative-chemical models of many decades in length. Yet, to assure the generality of the simulation's results against uncertainties in emissions, unforced year-to-year variability and dependence on initial conditions, it is necessary to repeat them a significant number of times. The computational cost of such an exercise is still too large when using complex three-dimensional coupled models. We introduce in this paper a computationally efficient chemical scheme, the FAst STratospheric Ozone Chemistry (FASTOC) scheme, which has advantages over many existing fast methods, as it does not rely on relaxation to assumed conditions, does not rely on tuning parameters, and does not rely on linearization approximations. The scheme is nevertheless three orders of magnitude faster than a stiff kinetic equations solver. Part I of the paper gives a detailed description of the FASTOC model and some performance evaluations when incorporated in a general-circulation model (GCM). In Part II, the FASTOC model, coupled to a GCM, is specifically applied to study the impact of climate,chemistry interactions on stratospheric ozone in the middle of the twenty-first century. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Accounting for unresolved clouds in a 1-D solar radiative-transfer modelTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 608 2005J. Li Abstract New methods for the treatment of solar radiative transfer through overlapping and inhomogeneous clouds are presented. First, a new approach to cloud overlap is shown. For the adjacent cloud blocks, the traditional maximum overlap can be relaxed to a mixture of maximum and random overlap treatments for layers that are adjacent but not fully correlated. Second, a new radiative-transfer algorithm has been developed to deal with these various cloud overlap circumstances that is simple enough for implementation in a general-circulation model (GCM). When compared to appropriate benchmark calculations, we find that this new method can produce accurate results in heating rates and fluxes with relative errors generally less than 8%. Third, a new and very simple approach to treating radiative transfer through a cloud with horizontal subgrid-scale inhomogeneities is developed. This approach uses an optical-depth scaling technique to represent the subgrid-scale inhomogeneity. Finally, by combining all of the above elements, we provide a new algorithm for the combined treatment of cloud overlap and inhomogeneity and we show that it yields very reasonable accuracies for heating rates and fluxes. Through benchmark comparisons, we show that this new algorithm provides significant improvement over existing schemes in GCMs. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The role of the basic state in the ENSO,monsoon relationship and implications for predictabilityTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 607 2005A. G. Turner Abstract The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon,ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the general-circulation model. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the general-circulation model, the monsoon,ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag,lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Niño. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Niño, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society [source] Investigating atmospheric predictability on Mars using breeding vectors in a general-circulation modelTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 603 2004C. E. Newman Abstract A breeding vectors approach is used to investigate the hypothesis that the Martian atmosphere is predictable at certain times of year, by identifying the fastest-growing modes of instability at different times in a Mars general-circulation model. Results indicate that the period from northern mid-spring until mid-autumn is remarkably predictable, with negative global growth rates for a range of conditions, in contrast to the situation on the earth. From northern late autumn to early spring growing modes do occur, peaking in northern high latitudes and near winter solstice. Reducing the size of the initial perturbations increases global growth rates in most cases, supporting the idea that instabilities which saturate nonlinearly at lower amplitudes have generally faster growth rates. In late autumn/early winter the fastest-growing modes (,bred vectors') are around the north pole, increase with dust loading, and probably grow via barotropic as well as baroclinic energy conversion. In northern late winter/early spring the bred vectors are around the north pole and are strongly baroclinic in nature. As dust loading (and with it the global circulation strength) is increased their growth rates first decrease, as the baroclinic mode is suppressed, then increase again as the fastest-growing instabilities switch to being those which dominated earlier in the year. If dust levels are very low during late northern autumn (late southern spring) then baroclinic modes are also found around the spring pole in the south, though for a slight increase in dust loading the dominant modes shift back to northern high latitudes. The bred vectors are also used as perturbations to the initial conditions for ensemble simulations. One possible application within the Mars model is as a means of identifying regions and times when dust-lifting activity (related to surface wind stress) might show significant interannual variability for a given model configuration, without the need to perform long, computationally expensive multi-year model runs with each new set-up. This is tested for a time of year when previous multi-year experiments showed significant variability in dust storm onset in the region north of Chryse. Despite the model having no feedbacks between dust lifting and atmospheric state (unlike the original multi-year run), the ensemble members still show maximum divergence in this region in terms of near-surface wind stress, suggesting both that this application deserves further testing, and that the intrinsic atmospheric variability alone may be important in producing interannual variability in this storm type. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society [source] The parametrization of drag induced by stratified flow over anisotropic orographyTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 568 2000J. F. Scinocca Abstract A new parametrization of drag arising from the flow over unresolved topography (UT) in a general-circulation model (GCM) is presented. It is comprised of three principle components: a parametrization of the source spectrum and drag associated with freely propagating hydrostatic gravity waves in the absence of rotation, a parametrization of the drag associated with low-level wave breaking, and a parametrization of low-level drag associated with upstream blocking and lee-vortex dynamics. Novel features of the scheme include: a new procedure for defining the UT in each GCM grid cell which takes account of the GCM resolution and includes only the scales represented by the parametrization scheme, a new method of representing the azimuthal distribution of vertical momentum flux by two waves whose direction and magnitude systematically vary with the flow direction and with the anisotropy of the UT in each GCM grid cell, and a new application of form drag in the lowest levels which can change the direction of the low-level flow so that it is more parallel to unresolved two-dimensional topographic ridges. The new scheme is tested in the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis third generation atmospheric GCM at horizontal resolutions of T47 and T63. Five-year seasonal means of present-day climate show that the new scheme improves mean sea level pressures (or mass distribution) and improves the tropospheric circulation when compared with the gravity-wave drag scheme used currently in the GCM. The benefits are most pronounced during northern hemisphere winter. It is also found that representing the azimuthal distribution of the momentum flux of the freely propagating gravity-wave field with two waves rather than just one allows 30-50% more gravity-wave momentum flux up into the middle atmosphere, depending on the season. The additional momentum flux into the middle atmosphere is expected to have a beneficial impact on GCMs that employ a more realistic representation of the stratosphere. [source] GIOTTO: A coupled atmosphere-ocean general-circulation model: The tropical PacificTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 567 2000Martin Fischer Abstract A new coupled general-circulation model (GIOTTO) has been developed. The individual components are composed of the atmosphere model, ECHAM-4, and the ocean model, MOM (Modular Ocean Model)-1.2. The model domain is global, and no flux correction is applied. The coupling is active between 60°N and 60° S. Poleward of 60° the atmosphere is forced by the climatological sea surface temperature (SST), and the ocean is relaxed towards the climatological SST and sea surface salinity. Further, the sea-ice coverage is prescribed. The coupling interval is set to two hours to resolve the diurnal cycle. In this paper we describe the design of the model, and discuss results of a coupled 20-year integration. The representation of the mean state is realistic, although there is an overall cold SST bias of about one degree centigrade in the tropics, and a tendency to simulate a double Inter Tropical Convergence Zone. The annual cycle, as simulated in the equatorial Pacific, is too weak in the east Pacific and too strong in the warm-pool region. The phase, however, is well captured. The SST variability in the equatorial Pacific is underestimated by about 30%, and the anomalies are too confined to the equator. The main features of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, like propagation of heat-content anomalies, reflection of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves, and westerly wind bursts, however, are correctly represented by the model. A variability analysis based on empirical orthogonal functions indicates that the ENSO mechanisms are simulated correctly. The model also appears to be well balanced with a remarkably low SST drift (0.5 degC decade,1), and a realistic equatorial thermal structure. We are, therefore, confident that the model can be used for experimental seasonal predictions. [source] Three-dimensional chemical model simulations of the ozone layer: 1979,2015THE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 565 2000John Austin Abstract One-year simulations of stratospheric chemistry are performed in a general-circulation model (GCM). A fairly comprehensive description of stratospheric chemistry is included in a state-of-the-art GCM which has been extended to the middle mesosphere. The predicted ozone concentration is used in the model radiation scheme, thereby coupling the dynamical and chemical processes. Simulations commence on 1 March in each of the years 1979, 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014, and consist of a 4 month spin-up period, followed by a 1-year integration. Past and projected values of halogen amounts and greenhouse gases (GHGs) are imposed on the model. The results for 1979,80 and 1994,95 are generally in good agreement with observations, indicating in the latter case a deep Antarctic ozone hole and some Arctic ozone loss. For the 1979 simulation only a very shallow ozone hole was simulated, in agreement with observations. In about the year 2005, the Antarctic ozone hole reaches its maximum size and globally averaged ozone reaches its minimum, depending on the month. Tropical ozone continues to decrease until about 2010. Results in the Arctic are dominated by interannual variability, but minimum ozone may not be attained until the year 2010. The results suggest that the increase in GHGs is delaying the onset of ozone recovery. Relative to 1980 conditions, the model changes in ozone result in small predicted increases in surface ultraviolet radiation in the Arctic and mid-latitude summer but large increases in the tropics and in the Antarctic summer. [source] | ||||||||||