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G14
Selected AbstractsL'incidence de la vente à découvert sur les réactions du marchéà la publication des résultatsCONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, Issue 2 2010DENNIS J. LASSER G14; M41 Les auteurs examinent l'incidence de la demande inhérente que supposent les positions courtes en étudiant dans quelle mesure les réactions des cours boursiers à la publication des résultats dépendent du niveau des positions courtes. Selon leurs constatations, si les nouvelles publiées sont extrêmement positives ou extrêmement négatives, la demande inhérente entraîne à la hausse le cours des actions à proximité de la date de la publication des résultats, la hausse étant plus prononcée dans le cas des nouvelles positives que des nouvelles négatives. Plus précisément, la réaction initiale du marchéà des résultats imprévus extrêmement positifs est plus importante dans le cas d'entreprises ayant des niveaux élevés de positions à découvert. En revanche, lorsque les résultats imprévus sont extrêmement négatifs, la réaction initiale du marché est moins négative dans le cas d'entreprises dont le niveau des positions à découvert est élevé. Les auteurs constatent au surplus que l'ampleur du mouvement réactif suivant la publication des résultats est plus modeste (plus marquée) dans le cas de résultats imprévus extrêmement positifs (négatifs) pour les entreprises dont les positions à découvert sont importantes. [source] The Role of Political Instability in Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of GreeceECONOMIC NOTES, Issue 3 2000Dimitrios Asteriou This article examines empirically the relationship between stock market development, political instability and economic growth in Greece. We measure socio-political instability by constructing an index which captures the occurrence of various phenomena of political violence using time-series data. The main advantages of analysing political instability in a case study framework using time-series, in contrast with the widely used cross-country empirical studies, are: (a) a more careful and in-depth examination of institutional and historical characteristics of a particular country; (b) the use of a data set comprised of the most appropriate and highest quality measures; and (c) a more detailed exposition of the dynamic evolution of the economy. The empirical results indicate the existence of a strong negative relationship between uncertain socio-political conditions and the general index of the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE) and support the theoretical hypothesis that uncertain socio-political conditions affect economic growth negatively, is true for the Greek case. (J.E.L.: G10, G14, O40, C32) [source] Conditional Asset Pricing and Stock Market Anomalies in EuropeEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2010Rob Bauer G12; G14 Abstract This study provides European evidence on the ability of static and dynamic specifications of the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model to price 25 size-B/M portfolios. In contrast to US evidence, we detect a small-growth premium and find that the size effect is still present in Europe. Furthermore, we document strong time variation in factor risk loadings. Incorporating these risk fluctuations in conditional specifications of the three-factor model clearly improves its ability to explain time variation in expected returns. However, the model still fails to completely capture cross-sectional variation in returns as it is unable to explain the momentum effect. [source] On the Magnet Effect of Price LimitsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 5 2007David Abad G1; G14; D44 Abstract The ,magnet' or ,gravitational' effect hypothesis asserts that, when trading halts are rule-based, investors concerned with a likely impediment to trade advance trades in time. This behaviour actually pushes prices further towards the limit. Empirical studies about the magnet effect are scarce, most likely because of the unavailability of data on rule-based halts. In this paper, we use a large database from the Spanish Stock Exchange (SSE), which combines intraday stock specific price limits and short-lived rule-based call auctions to stabilise prices, to test this hypothesis. The SSE is particularly well suited to test the magnet effect hypothesis since trading halts are price-triggered and, therefore, predictable to some extent. Still, the SSE microstructure presents two particularities: (i) a limit-hit triggers an automatic switch to an alternative trading mechanism, a call auction, rather than a pure halt; (ii) the trading halt only lasts 5 minutes. We find that, even when prices are within a very short distance to the price limits, the probability of observing a limit-hit is unexpectedly low. Additionally, prices either initiate reversion (non limit-hit days) or slow down gradually (limit-hit days) as they come near the intraday limits. Finally, the most aggressive traders progressively become more patient as prices approach the limits. Therefore, both the price patterns and the trading behaviour reported near the limits do not agree with the price limits acting as magnetic fields. Consequently, we conclude that the switching mechanism implemented in the SSE does not induce traders to advance their trading programs in time. [source] Investor Attention and Time-varying ComovementsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2007Lin Peng G14 Abstract This paper analyses the effect of an increase in market-wide uncertainty on information flow and asset price comovements. We use the daily realised volatility of the 30-year treasury bond futures to assess macroeconomic shocks that affect market-wide uncertainty. We use the ratio of a stock's idiosyncratic realised volatility with respect to the S&P500 futures relative to its total realised volatility to capture the asset price comovement with the market. We find that market volatility and the comovement of individual stocks with the market increase contemporaneously with the arrival of market-wide macroeconomic shocks, but decrease significantly in the following five trading days. This pattern supports the hypothesis that investors shift their (limited) attention to processing market-level information following an increase in market-wide uncertainty and then subsequently divert their attention back to asset-specific information. [source] Rain or Shine: Where is the Weather Effect?EUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 5 2005William N. Goetzmann G12; G14 Abstract There is considerable empirical evidence that emotion influences decision-making. In this paper, we use a database of individual investor accounts to examine the weather effects on traders. Our analysis of the trading activity in five major US cities over a six-year period finds virtually no difference in individuals' propensity to buy or sell equities on cloudy days as opposed to sunny days. If the association between cloud cover and stock returns documented for New York and other world cities is indeed caused by investor mood swings, our findings suggest that researchers should focus on the attitudes of market-makers, news providers or other agents physically located in the city hosting the exchange. NYSE spreads widen on cloudy days. When we control for this, the weather effect becomes smaller and insignificant. We interpret this as evidence that the behaviour of market-makers, rather than individual investors, may be responsible for the relation between returns and weather. [source] European Momentum Strategies, Information Diffusion, and Investor ConservatismEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2005John A. Doukas G1; G11; G14 Abstract In this paper we conduct an out-of-sample test of two behavioural theories that have been proposed to explain momentum in stock returns. We test the gradual-information-diffusion model of Hong and Stein (1999) and the investor conservatism bias model of Barberis et al. (1998) in a sample of 13 European stock markets during the period 1988 to 2001. These two models predict that momentum comes from the (i) gradual dissemination of firm-specific information and (ii) investors' failure to update their beliefs sufficiently when they observe new public information. The findings of this study are consistent with the predictions of the behavioural models of Hong and Stein's (1999) and Barberis et al. (1998). The evidence shows that momentum is the result of the gradual diffusion of private information and investors' psychological conservatism reflected on the systematic errors they make in forming earnings expectations by not updating them adequately relative to their prior beliefs and by undervaluing the statistical weight of new information. [source] A Parimutuel Market Microstructure for Contingent ClaimsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2005Jeffrey Lange G10; G13; G14 Abstract Parimutuel principles are widely used as an alternative to fixed odds gambling in which a bookmaker acts as a dealer by quoting fixed rates of return on specified wagers. A parimutuel game is conducted as a call auction in which odds are allowed to fluctuate during the betting period until the betting period is closed or the auction ,called'. The prices or odds of wagers are set based upon the relative amounts wagered on each risky outcome. In financial microstructure terms, trading under parimutuel principles is characterised by (1) call auction, non-continuous trading; (2) riskless funding of claim payouts using the amounts paid for all of the claims during the auction; (3) special equilibrium pricing conditions requiring the relative prices of contingent claims equal the relative aggregate amounts wagered on such claims; (4) endogenous determination of unique state prices; and (5) higher efficiency. Recently, a number of large investment banks have adopted a parimutuel mechanism for offering contingent claims on various economic indices, such as the US Nonfarm payroll report and Eurozone Harmonised inflation. Our paper shows how the market microstructure incorporating parimutuel principles for contingent claims which allows for notional transactions, limit orders, and bundling of claims across states is constructed. We prove the existence of a unique price equilibrium for such a market and suggest an algorithm for computing the equilibrium. We also suggest that for a broad class of contingent claims, that the parimutuel microstructure recently deployed offers many advantages over the dominant dealer and exchange continuous time mechanisms. [source] Analysing Perceived Downside Risk: the Component Value-at-Risk FrameworkEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2004Winfried G. Hallerbach G3; G32; G1; G14 Abstract Multinational companies face increasing risks arising from external risk factors, e.g. exchange rates, interest rates and commodity prices, which they have learned to hedge using derivatives. However, despite increasing disclosure requirements, a firm's net risk profile may not be transparent to shareholders. We develop the ,Component Value-at-Risk (VaR)' framework for companies to identify the multi-dimensional downside risk profile as perceived by shareholders. This framework allows for decomposing downside risk into components that are attributable to each of the underlying risk factors. The firm can compare this perceived VaR, including its composition and dynamics, to an internal VaR based on net exposures as it is known to the company. Any differences may lead to surprises at times of earnings announcements and thus constitute a litigation threat to the firm. It may reduce this information asymmetry through targeted communication efforts. [source] Divergence of US and Local Returns in the After-market for Equity Issuing ADRsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 3 2004Padma Kadiyala F30; G12; G14 Abstract We study one-year post-listing prices and returns to equity issuing ADRs that listed in the US between January 1991 and October 2000. ADRs from countries that impose restrictions on capital flows are priced at a premium to their home market ordinaries. While the mean premium for the full sample is statistically indistinguishable from zero, after an adjustment for asynchronous trading, the magnitude of the premium to ADRs from restricted markets is 11.33% at the 300-day post listing interval, which is statistically significant. In the short run (30 days) following listing, the magnitude of the premium is larger for ADRs with larger excess demand from US investors. At the longer 300-day horizon, Nasdaq listed ADRs earn a larger premium than their NYSE/AMEX listed counterparts. Time-series regressions and two-stage cross-sectional regressions establish that the premium to foreign equity issuers is greater if the US listing attracts liquidity and if US returns have a lower correlation with the local country index. [source] Differences between European and American IPO MarketsEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 4 2003Jay R. Ritter G24; G32; G14; G15 Abstract This brief survey discusses recent developments in the European initial public offering (IPO) market. The spectacular rise and fall of the Euro NM markets and the growth of bookbuilding as a procedure for pricing and allocating IPOs are two important patterns. Gross spreads are lower and less clustered than in the USA. Unlike the USA, some European IPOs, especially those in Germany, have when-issued trading prior to the final setting of the offer price. Current research includes empirical studies on the valuation of IPOs and both theoretical and empirical work on the determinants of short-run underpricing. [source] Conditioning Information and European Bond Fund PerformanceEUROPEAN FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2003Florinda Silva G11; G12; G14 In this paper we evaluate the performance of European bond funds using unconditional and conditional models. As conditioning information we use variables that we find to be useful in predicting bond returns in the European market. The results show that, in general, bond funds are not able to outperform passive strategies. These findings are robust to whatever model (unconditional versus conditional and single versus multi-index) we use. The multi-index model seems to add some explanatory power in relation to the single-index model. Furthermore, when we incorporate the predetermined information variables, we can observe a slight tendency towards better performance. This evidence is consistent with previous studies on stock funds and comes in support of the argument that conditional models might allow for a better assessment of performance. However, our results suggest that the impact of additional risk factors seems to be greater than the impact of incorporating predetermined information variables. [source] Day-of-the-Week Effect in High MomentsFINANCIAL MARKETS, INSTITUTIONS & INSTRUMENTS, Issue 3 2005by Dan Galai C14; C31; G14 Evidence from equity markets worldwide indicates that the Day-of-the-Week anomaly appears to fade from the first moment of the distribution of daily returns. We report highly significant pair-wise weekend effects in high moments when comparing the first and last trading days of the week. The second moment alone appears to distinguish the return distribution of the first trading day from all others. A probable explanation of the phenomena appears to be information dissemination: corporate announcements released after closing of the last trading day of the week spill-over to the opening of the first trading day, increasing its variability and carrying the closing sign. [source] Preferenced Trading, Quote Competition, and Market Quality: Evidence from Decimalization on the NYSEFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2010Wei Huang G14; G18 Abstract We examine the impact of decimalization on preferenced trading in NYSE-listed stocks and show a significant decline in preferenced trading around decimalization. For the largest NYSE stocks, the total decline is nearly 22%. We also find a negative correlation between the changes in preferenced trading and the changes in quote competition intensity, and a positive correlation between the changes in preferenced trading and the changes in spreads. Consistent with the cream skimming hypothesis, we find that abnormal changes in information asymmetry cost for NYSE trades are positively correlated with the changes in preferenced trading. [source] Risk Changes around Calls of Convertible BondsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2010Luis García-Feijóo G14; G32 Abstract We examine changes in equity and asset betas around convertible bond calls and report two major findings. First, calling firms exhibit an increase in asset betas following the call. We argue that the finding is consistent with the implications of the sequential financing theory but not of the backdoor equity financing theory. Second, abnormal returns at call announcements are negative only for the subsample of firms that also exhibit an increase in equity beta. We conclude that risk changes help explain the market reaction to convertible bond calls. [source] Price Movers on the Stock Exchange of Thailand: Evidence from a Fully Automated Order-Driven MarketFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2010Charlie Charoenwong G12; G14; G15 Abstract This study examines which trade sizes move stock prices on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), a pure limit order market, over two distinct market conditions of bull and bear. Using intraday data, the study finds that large-sized trades (i.e., those larger than the 75th percentile) account for a disproportionately large impact on changes in traded and quoted prices. The finding remains even after it has been subjected to a battery of robustness checks. In contrast, the results of studies conducted in the United States show that informed traders employ trade sizes falling between the 40th and 95th percentiles (Barclay and Warner, 1993; Chakravarty, 2001). Our results support the hypothesis that informed traders in a pure limit order market, such as the SET, where there are no market makers, also use larger-size trades than those employed by informed traders in the United States. [source] Short-Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity MarketsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 2 2010Abul Shamsuddin G12; G14; G15 Abstract This study measures the degree of short-horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple-horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross-sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short-selling restrictions are correlated with cross-market variations in return predictability. [source] Price Clustering: Evidence Using Comprehensive Limit-Order DataFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2009Chaoshin Chiao G14; G15 Abstract Employing comprehensive limit-order data which identify investor types, this paper examines the clustering pattern of limit-order prices. First, limit orders, particularly those submitted by individual investors (IIs), tend to cluster at integer and even prices. Second, nonmarketable limit-order prices cluster more than marketable limit-order prices, indicating that aggressive limit orders generally embed more information. Third, investors choosing even-priced limit orders are not penalized by lower execution ratios. Fourth, investors (particularly IIs) strategically exhibit front-running behavior. Fifth, price clustering indeed creates price barriers. Finally, the degree of price clustering using trade data is significantly underestimated, compared to that using limit-order data. [source] U.S. Monetary Policy Surprises and Currency Futures Markets: A New LookFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2008Tao Wang G14 Abstract Intraday currency futures prices react to both surprises in the federal funds target rate (the target factor) and surprises in the anticipated future direction of Federal Reserve monetary policy (the path factor) in similar magnitude, and the reaction is short-lived. Dollar-denominated currency futures prices drop significantly in response to positive surprises (i.e., unexpected increases) in the target and path factors, but have generally little response to negative surprises. A monetary policy tightening during expansionary periods leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency, while a monetary policy loosening during recessionary periods tends to have no significant impact. [source] The Information Content of Multiple Stock SplitsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2008Gow-Cheng Huang G14 Abstract We examine the relationship between the frequency of stock splits and firms' motives for splitting their stock. Compared to their peers, infrequent splitters show higher post-split operating performance, but not so for frequent splitters. We find that split ratio and liquidity change explain the stock split announcement effect for the frequent splitters. In contrast, the change in operating performance in the split year explains the announcement effect for the infrequent splitters. Our results suggest that frequent splits are more consistent with the trading range-improved/liquidity hypothesis and infrequent splits are more consistent with the signaling hypothesis. [source] The Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 and Market LiquidityFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2008Pankaj K. Jain G14; M41 Abstract Investors rely heavily on the trustworthiness and accuracy of corporate information to provide liquidity to the capital markets. We find that the rash of financial scandals caused a severe deterioration in market liquidity in the form of wider spreads, lower depths, and a higher adverse selection component of spreads vis-à-vis their benchmark levels. Regulatory responses including the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (SOX) had inconsequential short-term liquidity effects but highly significant and positive long-term liquidity effects. These liquidity improvements are positively associated with the improved quality of financial reports, several firm-specific variables (e.g., size), and market factors (e.g., price, volatility, volume). [source] Price Performance Following Share-Repurchase Announcements by Closed-End FundsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2007Aigbe Akhigbe G14; G20; G23 Abstract We investigate the price performance of closed-end funds that announce share-repurchase programs. Closed-end funds experience positive average stock-price reactions to the announcements. The long-run buy-and-hold abnormal returns of repurchasing funds over the subsequent three years are significantly higher than a nonrepurchasing control sample matched by size, type, investment style and geographic diversification. Funds with larger discounts, international funds, equity funds, and funds that announce larger repurchases or frequently announce repurchases, experience more positive stock-price reactions. Except for larger repurchases, the same characteristics are associated with more positive long-run buy-and-hold returns. [source] Short- and Long-Term Effects of Multimarket TradingFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2007Vanthuan Nguyen G14; G18 Abstract We analyze short- and long-term effects of multimarket trading by examining the entries of multiple markets into transacting three ETFs, DIA, QQQ, and SPY. We find that large-scale entries improve overall market quality, while small-scale entries have ambiguous effects. Our results show that the competition effect dominates the fragmentation effect over a long horizon and that market fragmentation leads to a decline in trading costs. Further, we find that the order handling rules help mitigate the fragmentation effect and facilitate the competition effect. We do not find that multimarket trading harms price efficiency or increases price volatility. [source] Deal Size, Bid Premium, and Gains in Bank Mergers: The Impact of Managerial MotivationsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2007Atul Gupta G14; G21; G34 Abstract Do mergers with greater target relative to acquirer size create more value than mergers with smaller relative sized targets? Do larger bid amounts represent wealth transfers from acquirers or do they signal greater expected merger gains? We hypothesize that the relations among aggregate merger gains, relative size, and bid premiums are asymmetric across mergers made by value-enhancing versus value-reducing managers. We use a large sample of bank mergers to test these predictions and find that the value response to different explanatory variables is asymmetric. Our findings provide new insights into how the market values merger bids. [source] The U.S. Share of Trading Volume in Cross-Listings: Evidence from Canadian StocksFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2007Sanjiv Sabherwal G10; G14; G15 Abstract I analyze the firm-specific determinants of the U.S. share of trading volume for 126 U.S.-listed Canadian firms. I find that the U.S. share of volume is directly related to the mass of informed and liquidity traders in the United States relative to Canada, as proxied by relative analyst following, relative duration of listing, and the U.S. share of sales. Evidence also supports the market liquidity argument that the market with lower spreads and greater depths has greater volume. Finally, the U.S. share is directly related to the relative sensitivity of the stock's value to information in the United States. [source] Initial Public Offerings: CFO PerceptionsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2006James C. Brau G14; G24; G32; G34 Abstract We examine four issues pertaining to initial public offerings (IPOs) using a survey of 438 chief financial officers (CFOs). First, why do firms go public? Second, is CFO sentiment stationary across bear and bull markets? Third, what concerns CFOs about going public? Fourth, do CFO perceptions correlate with returns? Results support funding for growth and liquidity as the primary reasons for IPOs. CFO sentiment is generally stationary in pre- and post-bubble years. Managers are concerned with the direct costs of going public, such as underwriting fees, as well as indirect costs. We find a negative relation between a focus on immediate growth and long-term abnormal returns. [source] Market Reaction to Changes in the S&P SmallCap 600 IndexFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 3 2006S. Gowri Shankar G12; G14 Abstract Firms added to (deleted from) the S&P 600 index experience a significant price increase (decrease) at announcement. Firms that newly enter (exit) the S&P universe experience a larger price increase (decrease) than firms that move between S&P indexes. Trading volumes are higher after the announcement and institutional ownership increases (decreases) following index additions (deletions). However, the price and volume effects are temporary and are fully reversed within 60 days, in contrast to the permanent effects reported for S&P 500 changes. Our results support the temporary price-pressure hypothesis and are similar to results reported for Russell 2000 index changes. [source] An Examination of the Differential Impact of Regulation FD on Analysts' Forecast AccuracyFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2006Scott Findlay G14; G18; G24; G38 Abstract Regulation fair disclosure (FD) requires companies to publicly disseminate information, effectively preventing the selective pre-earnings announcement guidance to analysts common in the past. We investigate the effects of Regulation FD's reducing information disparity across analysts on their forecast accuracy. Proxies for private information, including brokerage size and analyst company-specific experience, lose their explanatory power for analysts' relative accuracy after Regulation FD. Analyst forecast accuracy declines overall, but analysts that are relatively less accurate (more accurate) before Regulation FD improve (deteriorate) after implementation. Our findings are consistent with selective guidance partially explaining variation in the forecasting accuracy of analysts before Regulation FD. [source] Does an Industry Effect Exist for Initial Public Offerings?FINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 4 2003Aigbe Akhigbe G14 Abstract We examine the impact of initial public offerings (IPOs) on rival firms and find that the valuation effects are insignificant. This insignificant reaction can be explained by offsetting information and competitive effects. Significant positive information effects are associated with IPOs in regulated industries and the first IPO in an industry following a period of dormancy. Significant negative competitive effects are associated with larger IPOs in competitive industries, those in relatively risky industries, those in high-performing industries, and those in the technology sector. IPO firms that use the proceeds for debt repayment appear to represent a more significant competitive threat to rival firms relative to IPO firms that use their proceeds for other purposes. [source] Selectivity and Market Timing Performance of Fidelity Sector Mutual FundsFINANCIAL REVIEW, Issue 1 2001Wilfred L. Dellva G14 Abstract In this paper, we test the selectivity and timing performance of the Fidelity sector mutual funds during the 1989,1998 time period. We use the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industry Group Total Return Indexes, and the Dow Jones Subgroup Total Return Indexes as benchmarks. When we use the Dow Jones Industry benchmarks, our results indicate that many sector fund managers have positive selectivity but negative timing ability. We also find that the results are sensitive to our choice of benchmark and timing model. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||