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Future Trajectory (future + trajectory)
Selected AbstractsTHE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF U.S. CO2 EMISSIONS: THE ROLE OF STATE VS.JOURNAL OF REGIONAL SCIENCE, Issue 1 2007AGGREGATE INFORMATION ABSTRACT This paper provides comparisons of a variety of time-series methods for short-run forecasts of the main greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, for the United States, using a recently released state-level data set from 1960,2001. We test the out-of-sample performance of univariate and multivariate forecasting models by aggregating state-level forecasts versus forecasting the aggregate directly. We find evidence that forecasting the disaggregate series and accounting for spatial effects drastically improves forecasting performance under root mean squared forecast error loss. Based on the in-sample observations we attempt to explain the emergence of voluntary efforts by states to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We find evidence that states with decreasing per capita emissions and a "greener" median voter are more likely to push toward voluntary cutbacks in emissions. [source] Forging Ahead and Falling Behind: Changing Regional Inequalities in Post-reform ChinaGROWTH AND CHANGE, Issue 1 2002Max Lu This study analyzes the evolution of China's regional inequalities during the reform period of 1978,1998 based on three geographical scales, both output and livelihood indicators of economic well-being and three measures of inequality. The results indicate that interprovincial and regional inequalities declined between 1978 and 1990, but have widened steadily since 1990. Urban-rural disparity diminished before 1984, then experienced a decade-long surge afterwards to peak in 1994 at a much higher level and since 1994, it has been declining again. The levels of regional inequalities in China appear to be sensitive to changes in government development strategies and regional policies. Differential growth of the provincial economies shaped by the coast-oriented and urban-biased development strategies as well as selective open-door policy implemented by the Chinese government after the reform is the key to understanding the wax and wane in China's regional inequalities. This paper discusses the factors that account for the changing regional inequalities in post-reform China and argues that government policies are likely to continue to influence the future trajectories of inequality change. [source] Disruptive information system innovation: the case of internet computingINFORMATION SYSTEMS JOURNAL, Issue 4 2003Kalle Lyytinen Abstract., Information system (IS) innovation can be defined as a novel organizational application of digital computer and information communication technologies (ICT). This paper discusses how modalities of applying ICT technologies in their form and scope exhibit radical breaks, which are introduced herein as ,disruptive IS innovations'. This notion of disruptive IS innovation is developed by drawing upon and extending Swanson's (1994) theory of IS innovation as well as the concept of radical innovation. Disruptive innovations strongly influence the future trajectory of the adoption and use of ICT in organizational contexts and make the trajectory deviate from its expected course. In doing so, these disruptive innovations distinctly define what an IS is and how it is deployed in order to address current and future organizational and managerial prerogatives. Such changes are triggered breakthroughs in the capability of ICT that lead to the revision and expansion of associated cognitive models (frames) of computing. Disruptive IS innovations are those that lead to changes in the application of ICT that are both pervasive and radical. The pervasive nature implies that innovative activity spans all innovation subsets of the quad-core model of IS innovation introduced herein. Innovation types include: IS use and development processes; application architecture and capability; and base technologies. Radical in nature, disruptive is innovations depart in significant ways from existing alternatives and lead to deviation from expected use and diffusion trajectory. This paper demonstrates the importance of a concept of disruptive IS innovation by investigating how changes triggered by internet computing (Lyytinen et al., 1998) meet the conditions of a disruptive IS innovation defined herein. The analysis also affirms both the pervasive and radical nature of internet computing and explains how internet computing has fundamentally transformed the application portfolio, development practices and IS services over time. The analysis demonstrates that, with the concept of disruptive IS innovation, we can fruitfully analyse ,long' waves of ICT evolution , an issue that has largely been overlooked in the IS community. On a theoretical plane, the paper advocates the view that we need to look beyond linear, unidirectional, and atomistic concepts of the diffusion of IS innovations where innovative activity takes places in a linear fashion by oscillating between small technological innovations and small organizational innovations. In contrast, IS innovation can exhibit fundamental discontinuity; we need to theoretically grasp such disruptive moments. The recent influx of innovation, spurred by internet-based technology, offers one such moment. [source] Support vector machines-based generalized predictive controlINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROBUST AND NONLINEAR CONTROL, Issue 17 2006S. Iplikci Abstract In this study, we propose a novel control methodology that introduces the use of support vector machines (SVMs) in the generalized predictive control (GPC) scheme. The SVM regression algorithms have extensively been used for modelling nonlinear systems due to their assurance of global solution, which is achieved by transforming the regression problem into a convex optimization problem in dual space, and also their higher generalization potential. These key features of the SVM structures lead us to the idea of employing a SVM model of an unknown plant within the GPC context. In particular, the SVM model can be employed to obtain gradient information and also it can predict future trajectory of the plant output, which are needed in the cost function minimization block. Simulations have confirmed that proposed SVM-based GPC scheme can provide a noticeably high control performance, in other words, an unknown nonlinear plant controlled by SVM-based GPC can accurately track the reference inputs with different shapes. Moreover, the proposed SVM-based GPC scheme maintains its control performance under noisy conditions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The future of urban sociology: report of joint sessions of the British and American Sociological AssociationsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF URBAN AND REGIONAL RESEARCH, Issue 4 2002Beth Perry This article reports on two joint sessions of the British and American Sociological Associations held during the course of 2001 as a first step toward more structured dialogue and debate between the two national associations. Drawing on the comments of a number of leading academics on both sides of the Atlantic, this paper presents a series of discussions about the role and future of urban sociology. It explores the challenges and opportunities offered to urban sociology by increasing interdisciplinarity and multidisciplinarity in the field of urban studies as a whole. It then explores the role of sociology in understanding the relationship between contemporary processes of globalization and urban change and the degree to which this constitutes a new dynamic core of sociological theory and research. The paper reveals that there are a variety of alternative futures for urban sociology and there would appear to be little agreement on one specific route, nor on how to get there. Urban sociology continues to face a variety of challenges and more debate on its future trajectory is clearly needed but it remains a vital and expanding sub,field. Cet article rend compte de deux sessions communes des associations de sociologie britannique et américaine qui ont eu lieu en 2001, premier stade vers un dialogue et un débat plus structurés entre les deux organismes nationaux. Partant des remarques d'un certain nombre de grands intellectuels des deux côtés de l'Atlantique, ce travail présente plusieurs discussions sur le rôle et l'avenir de la sociologie urbaine. Il examine les défis et possibilités que lui offrent l'interdisciplinarité et la pluridisciplinarité croissantes dans l'ensemble du domaine des études urbaines. Il explore ensuite comment la sociologie aide à comprendre la relation entre les processus contemporains de mondialisation et de changement urbain, et la mesure où peut ainsi émerger une nouvelle dynamique nodale pour la théorie et la recherche sociologiques. L'article expose plusieurs avenirs possibles de la sociologie urbaine, sans qu'il y ait apparemment d'accord sur une voie particulière ni sur le moyen d'y parvenir. La sociologie urbaine rencontre toujours de multiples défis et il faut manifestement approfondir les débats sur sa future trajectoire, mais elle demeure un sous,domaine à la fois crucial et en expansion. [source] Fertility transition in Ghana: looking back and looking forwardPOPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE (PREVIOUSLY:-INT JOURNAL OF POPULATION GEOGRAPHY), Issue 6 2006Samuel Agyei-Mensah Abstract It is widely accepted that while the fertility transition is underway in sub-Saharan Africa, the pattern of change differs widely in both time and space. This paper examines the case of Ghana, regarded as the vanguard in the West African fertility transition. Based largely on analyses of Demographic and Health Survey data as well as localised studies, significant patterns emerge. One puzzling finding is that the increase in modern contraception usage has not kept pace with the declines in fertility. The paper suggests that this mismatch can be explained either by an increase in induced abortions, reduced exposure to sexual relations (perhaps due to HIV), or misreporting of contraceptive use. The paper also highlights the considerable geographical diversity in the ongoing fertility transition. The Northern region is still in the pre-transition stage, with little decline in fertility to date. In contrast, the pace of decline has been very rapid in the Greater Accra region. The factors underlying these patterns and the future trajectory of the fertility transition are discussed. It is argued that the fertility transition may be more leisurely in the near future than in the recent past. Among the factors working against future fertility decline are the stability in the infant mortality rate, the stall in fertility desires, and the low patronage of modern contraceptives especially in rural areas. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||