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Future State (future + state)
Selected AbstractsMaking Exchange Entitlements Operational: The Food Economy Approach to Famine Prediction and the RiskMap Computer ProgramDISASTERS, Issue 2 2000John Seaman The effect of production failure or some other shock on household income and food supply depends upon: (a) the pattern of household income, and (b) its ability to compensate for any deficit which may have occurred, for example, by the sale of assets or finding additional paid employment. The corollary is that the prediction of the likely effect of some event on the future state of the economy or food supply of a population of households requires an understanding of the economy of the households concerned and the economic context to which these relate. This paper describes an attempt to develop an approach to prediction using a dynamic model of economy based on quantitative descriptions of household economy obtained by systematic rapid field-work and summarises the experience of the use of this approach to date. [source] Synthesis of pattern and process in biodiversity conservation assessment: a flexible whole-landscape modelling frameworkDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, Issue 3 2010Simon Ferrier Abstract Aim, To describe a general modelling framework for integrating multiple pattern- and process-related factors into biodiversity conservation assessments across whole landscapes. Location, New South Wales (Australia), and world-wide. Methods, The framework allows for a rich array of alternatives to the target-based model traditionally underpinning systematic conservation planning and consists of three broad modelling components. The first component models the future state (condition) of habitat across a landscape as a function of present state, current and projected pressures acting on this state, and any proposed, or implemented, management interventions. The second component uses this spatially explicit prediction of future habitat state to model the level of persistence expected for each of a set of surrogate biodiversity entities. The third component then integrates these individual expectations to estimate the overall level of persistence expected for biodiversity as a whole. Results, Options are explored for tailoring implementation of the framework to suit planning processes varying markedly in purpose, and in availability of data, time, funding and expertise. The framework allows considerable flexibility in the nature of employed biodiversity surrogates (species-level, discrete or continuous community-level) and spatial data structures (polygonal planning units, or fine-scaled raster), the level of sophistication with which each of the three modelling components is implemented (from simple target-based assessment to complex process-based modelling approaches), and the forms of higher-level analysis supported (e.g. optimal plan development, priority mapping, interactive scenario evaluation). Main conclusions, The described framework provides a logical, and highly flexible, foundation for integrating disparate pattern- and process-related factors into conservation assessments in dynamic, multiple-use landscapes. [source] News Management in Monetary Policy: When Central Banks Should Talk to the GovernmentGERMAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, Issue 4 2000Helge Berger Central banks are often considered to be better informed about the present or future state of the economy than the government. A conservative central bank has an incentive to exploit this asymmetry by strategically managing its information policy. Strategic news management will keep the government uncertain about the state of the economy and increase the central bank's leeway for conducting a conservative monetary policy. We show that withholding information from the government is an equilibrium. However, there are also well-defined limits to strategic information policy as the central bank has to distort monetary policy to be in line with its news management. A simple extension of our findings is that, if the government on occasion learns about the bank's true information, it will then overrule the central bank's decision on monetary policy. [source] Mobility prediction and routing in ad hoc wireless networksINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF NETWORK MANAGEMENT, Issue 1 2001William Su By exploiting non-random behaviors for the mobility patterns that mobile users exhibit, we can predict the future state of network topology and perform route reconstruction proactively in a timely manner. Moreover, by using the predicted information on the network topology, we can eliminate transmissions of control packets otherwise needed to reconstruct the route and thus reduce overhead. In this paper, we propose various schemes to improve routing protocol performances by using mobility prediction. We then evaluate the effectiveness of using mobility prediction via simulation. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Predictor-based repetitive learning control for a class of remote control nonlinear systemsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ROBUST AND NONLINEAR CONTROL, Issue 16 2007Ya-Jun Pan Abstract In this paper, a repetitive learning control (RLC) approach is proposed for a class of remote control nonlinear systems satisfying the global Lipschitz condition. The proposed approach is to deal with the remote tracking control problem when the environment is periodic or repeatable over infinite time domain. Since there exist time delays in the two transmission channels: from the controller to the actuator and from the sensor to the controller, tracking a desired trajectory through a remote controller is not an easy task. In order to solve the problem caused by time delays, a predictor is designed on the controller side to predict the future state of the nonlinear system based on the delayed measurements from the sensor. The convergence of the estimation error of the predictor is ensured. The gain design of the predictor applies linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques developed by Lyapunov Kravoskii method for time delay systems. The RLC law is constructed based on the feedback error from the predicted state. The overall tracking error tends to zero asymptotically over iterations. The proof of the stability is based on a constructed Lyapunov function related to the Lyapunov Kravoskii functional used for the proof of the predictor's convergence. By well incorporating the predictor and the RLC controller, the system state tracks the desired trajectory independent of the influence of time delays. A numerical simulation example is shown to verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Justice Expectations and Applicant PerceptionsINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SELECTION AND ASSESSMENT, Issue 1-2 2004Bradford S. Bell Expectations, which are beliefs about a future state of affairs, constitute a basic psychological mechanism that underlies virtually all human behavior. Although expectations serve as a central component in many theories of organizational behavior, they have received limited attention in the organizational justice literature. The goal of this paper is to introduce the concept of justice expectations and explore its implications for understanding applicant perceptions. To conceptualize justice expectations, we draw on research on expectations conducted in multiple disciplines. We discuss the three sources of expectations , direct experience, indirect influences, and other beliefs , and use this typology to identify the likely antecedents of justice expectations in selection contexts. We also discuss the impact of expectations on attitudes, cognitions, and behaviors, focusing specifically on outcomes tied to selection environments. Finally, we explore the theoretical implications of incorporating expectations into research on applicant perceptions and discuss the practical significance of justice expectations in selection contexts. [source] Understanding future ecosystem changes in Lake Victoria basin using participatory local scenariosAFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECOLOGY, Issue 2009Eric O. Odada Abstract Understanding future ecosystem changes is central to sustainable natural resource management especially when coupled with in-depth understanding of impacts of drivers, such as governance, demographic, economic and climate variations and land use policy. This offers comprehensive information for sustainable ecosystem services provision. A foresight process of systematic and presumptive assessment of future state and ecosystem integrity of Lake Victoria basin, as participatory scenario building technique, is presented. Four scenarios have been illustrated as possible future states of the basin over the next twenty years. Using a scenario building model developed in Ventana Simulation (VENSIM®) platform, the paper presents a scenario methodology for tracking changes in lake basin ecosystem status. Plausible trends in land use change, changes in lake levels and contribution of fisheries are presented. This is part of an initial attempt to setup long-term environmental policy planning strategies for Lake Victoria basin. The assumptions, driving forces, impacts and opportunities under each scenario depict major departure and convergence points for an integrated transboundary diagnosis and analysis of regional issues in the basin as well as strategic action planning for long-term interventions. The findings have been presented in terms of temporal, spatial, biophysical and human well-being dimensions. The attempts in this study can be embedded in a policy framework for basin management priority setting and may guide partnerships for environmental management. [source] Simulation of pedestrian flows by optimal control and differential gamesOPTIMAL CONTROL APPLICATIONS AND METHODS, Issue 3 2003Serge Hoogendoorn Abstract Gaining insights into pedestrian flow operations and assessment tools for pedestrian walking speeds and comfort is important in, for instance, planning and geometric design of infrastructural facilities, as well as for management of pedestrian flows under regular and safety-critical circumstances. Pedestrian flow operations are complex, and vehicular flow simulation modelling approaches are generally not applicable to pedestrian flow modelling. This article focusses on pedestrian walking behaviour theory and modelling. It is assumed that pedestrians are autonomous predictive controllers that minimize the subjective predicted cost of walking. Pedestrians predict the behaviour of other pedestrians based on their observations of the current state as well as predictions of the future state, given the assumed walking strategy of other pedestrians in their direct neighbourhood. As such, walking can be represented by a (non-co-operative or co-operative) differential game, where pedestrians may or may not be aware of the walking strategy of the other pedestrians. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] The present and future state of blended learning in workplace learning settings in the United StatesPERFORMANCE IMPROVEMENT, Issue 8 2008Kyong-Jee Kim This article reports a survey about blended learning in workplace learning settings. The survey found that blended learning gained popularity in many organizations but also that several barriers exist in implementing it. This survey also includes predictions on instructional strategies, emerging technologies, and evaluation techniques for blended learning. [source] Parental perspectives on living with a child with HoPE,AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MEDICAL GENETICS, Issue 1 2010Elaine E. Stashinko Abstract This article describes the experiences and perceived needs of a small cohort of parents of children with holoprosencephaly (HPE). The factors that are important to the lives of children vary across families and stages of development. As children living with HPE grow and change, parents adapt their goals and expectations to reflect their child's now and future state. Relevant literature is integrated within the discussion to support recommendations for care. © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Measures of skill and value of ensemble prediction systems, their interrelationship and the effect of ensemble sizeTHE QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, Issue 577 2001David S. Richardson Abstract Ensemble forecasts provide probabilistic predictions for the future state of the atmosphere. Usually the probability of a given event E is determined from the fraction of ensemble members which predict the event. Hence there is a degree of sampling error inherent in the predictions. In this paper a theoretical study is made of the effect of ensemble size on forecast performance as measured by a reliability diagram and Brier (skill) score, and on users by using a simple cost-loss decision model. The relationship between skill and value, and a generalized skill score, dependent on the distribution of users, are discussed. The Brier skill score is reduced from its potential level for all finite-sized ensembles. The impact is most significant for small ensembles, especially when the variance of forecast probabilities is also small. The Brier score for a set of deterministic forecasts is a measure of potential predictability, assuming the forecasts are representative selections from a reliable ensemble prediction system (EPS). There is a consistent effect of finite ensemble size on the reliability diagram. Even if the underlying distribution is perfectly reliable, sampling this using only a small number of ensemble members introduces considerable unreliability. There is a consistent over-forecasting which appears as a clockwise tilt of the reliability diagram. It is important to be aware of the expected effect of ensemble size to avoid misinterpreting results. An ensemble of ten or so members should not be expected to provide reliable probability forecasts. Equally, when comparing the performance of different ensemble systems, any difference in ensemble size should be considered before attributing performance differences to other differences between the systems. The usefulness of an EPS to individual users cannot be deduced from the Brier skill score (nor even directly from the reliability diagram). An EPS with minimal Brier skill may nevertheless be of substantial value to some users, while small differences in skill may hide substantial variation in value. Using a simple cost-loss decision model, the sensitivity of users to differences in ensemble size is shown to depend on the predictability and frequency of the event and on the cost-loss ratio of the user. For an extreme event with low predictability, users with low cost-loss ratio will gain significant benefits from increasing ensemble size from 50 to 100 members, with potential for substantial additional value from further increases in number of members. This sensitivity to large ensemble size is not evident in the Brier skill score. A generalized skill score, dependent on the distribution of users, allows a summary performance measure to be tuned to a particular aspect of EPS performance. [source] Facilitating Emergency Care Research Networks: Integration into the Clinical Translational and Science Award (CTSA) InfrastructureACADEMIC EMERGENCY MEDICINE, Issue 10 2009Judd E. Hollander MD Abstract Emergency care research (ECR) does not fit neatly into the traditional National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding model, because emergency research involves undifferentiated disease presentations involving multiple disciplines and time-sensitive interventions. A task force of emergency care researchers and other stakeholders was convened to discuss the present and future state of clinical research networks. Integration of ECR with the Clinical Translational and Science Award (CTSA) program through a multidisciplinary emergency care research network (ECRN) would obviate the duplication of research efforts by disease-specific or institute-specific multicenter networks and reduce startup and maintenance costs. Strategies to enhance integration must include the training of emergency physician investigators in biostatistical and epidemiologic methods, as well as educating collaborative investigators in emergency care,related methodologies. Thus, an ECRN would be of great benefit to CTSA awardees and applicants and should be considered a priority. [source] | ||||||||||||||||