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Future Events (future + event)
Selected AbstractsForecasting outcomes in spread betting markets: can bettors use ,quarbs' to beat the book?JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, Issue 2 2005David Paton Abstract In this paper, we examine a relatively novel form of gambling, spread (or index) betting that overlaps with practices in conventional financial markets. In this form of betting, a number of bookmakers quote bid,offer spreads about the result of some future event. Bettors may buy (sell) at the top (bottom) end of a spread. We hypothesize that the existence of an outlying spread may provide uninformed traders with forecasting information that can be used to develop improved trading strategies. Using data from a popular spread betting market in the United Kingdom, we find that the price obtaining at the market mid-point does indeed provide a better forecast of asset values than that implied in the outlying spread. We further show that this information can be used to develop trading strategies leading to returns that are consistently positive and superior to those from noise trading. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] Children's Thinking About Counterfactuals and Future Hypotheticals as PossibilitiesCHILD DEVELOPMENT, Issue 2 2006Sarah R. Beck Two experiments explored whether children's correct answers to counterfactual and future hypothetical questions were based on an understanding of possibilities. Children played a game in which a toy mouse could run down either 1 of 2 slides. Children found it difficult to mark physically both possible outcomes, compared to reporting a single hypothetical future event, "What if next time he goes the other way ," (Experiment 1: 3,4-year-olds and 4,5-year-olds), or a single counterfactual event, "What if he had gone the other way ,?" (Experiment 2: 3,4-year-olds and 5,6-year-olds). An open counterfactual question, "Could he have gone anywhere else?," which required thinking about the counterfactual as an alternative possibility, was also relatively difficult. [source] Enabling regional management in a changing climate through Bayesian meta-analysis of a large-scale disturbanceGLOBAL ECOLOGY, Issue 3 2010M Aaron MacNeil ABSTRACT Aim, Quantifying and predicting change in large ecosystems is an important research objective for applied ecologists as human disturbance effects become increasingly evident at regional and global scales. However, studies used to make inferences about large-scale change are frequently of uneven quality and few in number, having been undertaken to study local, rather than global, change. Our aim is to improve the quality of inferences that can be made in meta-analyses of large-scale disturbance by integrating studies of varying quality in a unified modelling framework that is informative for both local and regional management. Innovation, Here we improve conventionally structured meta-analysis methods by including imputation of unknown study variances and the use of Bayesian factor potentials. The approach is a coherent framework for integrating data of varying quality across multiple studies while facilitating belief statements about the uncertainty in parameter estimates and the probable outcome of future events. The approach is applied to a regional meta-analysis of the effects of loss of coral cover on species richness and the abundance of coral-dependent fishes in the western Indian Ocean (WIO) before and after a mass bleaching event in 1998. Main conclusions, Our Bayesian approach to meta-analysis provided greater precision of parameter estimates than conventional weighted linear regression meta-analytical techniques, allowing us to integrate all available data from 66 available study locations in the WIO across multiple scales. The approach thereby: (1) estimated uncertainty in site-level estimates of change, (2) provided a regional estimate for future change at any given site in the WIO, and (3) provided a probabilistic belief framework for future management of reef resources at both local and regional scales. [source] Evidence for episodic memory in a pavlovian conditioning procedure in ratsHIPPOCAMPUS, Issue 12 2007Jamus O'Brien Abstract In an effort to evaluate episodic memory processes in the rat, we developed a novel Pavlovian conditioning procedure. Rats explored two distinctive contexts, one in the morning and the other in the evening. Subsequently, either in the morning or the evening, they received a foot shock immediately upon entry into a third context that equally resembled the two explored contexts. When conditioned freezing was measured at an intermediate time of day, rats showed significantly more fear of the context congruent with the time of day of the foot shock. Thus, rats automatically form an integrated time,place memory that can be flexibly updated by future events, essential characteristics of episodic memory. © 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc. [source] Trust Evaluation Model for Catching Japanese Bankruptcy ChancesJOURNAL OF CONTINGENCIES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT, Issue 2 2002Shingo Ogawa This article aims at verifying the rationality of experiential subjectivities of credit analysts. In order to understand future events that can occur in an enterprise, uncertainty can be reduced based on their expertise. Rather than bankruptcy prediction accuracy, as in preceding studies, the aim here is to build a credit risk model from the viewpoint of credit analysts with sufficient experience for causal analysis. Factors that professional analysts pay major attention to in discovering bankruptcy chances are studied. The significant factors presented are four categories of what I call trust fear factors. The significance of the credit risk model based on these four factors was validated by statistical test, and this model was verified as a pragmatic model. The finding here is that subjective expertise works effectively for discovering an enterprise's critical situation turning towards bankruptcy. [source] Reduced lung function predicts increased fatality in future cardiac events.JOURNAL OF INTERNAL MEDICINE, Issue 6 2006A population-based study Abstract. Objective., Moderately reduced lung function in apparently healthy subjects has been associated with incidence of coronary events. However, whether lung function is related to the fatality of the future events is unknown. This study explored whether reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) in initially healthy men is related to the fatality of the future coronary events. Design., Prospective cohort study. Setting., Population-based study from Malmö, Sweden. Subjects., A total of 5452 healthy men, 28,61 years of age. Main outcome measures., Incidence of first coronary events was monitored over a mean follow-up of 19 years. The fatality of the future events was studied in relation to FEV and FVC. Results., A total of 589 men suffered a coronary event during follow-up, 165 of them were fatal during the first day. After risk factors adjustment, low FEV or FVC were associated with incidence of coronary events (fatal or nonfatal) and this relationship was most pronounced for the fatal events. Amongst men who subsequently had a coronary event, the case-fatality rates were higher in men with low FEV or FVC. Adjusted for risk factors, the odds ratio for death during the first day was 1.00 (reference), 1.63 (95% CI: 0.9,3.1), 1.86 (1.0,3.5) and 2.06 (1.1,3.9), respectively, for men with FVC in the 4th, 3rd, 2nd, and lowest quartiles (trend: P < 0.05). FEV showed similar relationships with the fatality rates. Conclusion., Apparently healthy men with moderately reduced lung function have higher fatality in future coronary events, with a higher proportion of coronary heart disease deaths and less nonfatal myocardial infarction. [source] RATES, RIGHTS, AND REGIONAL PLANNING IN THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA,JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN WATER RESOURCES ASSOCIATION, Issue 5 2002Richard Atwater ABSTRACT: The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California has for more than 70 years shaped the development of an immense urban region. The district's current strategic planning process therefore could have substantial effects on regional water planning and management. The rate restructuring phase of the planning process has produced a multiple component, cost of service based framework. This paper describes that framework as well as some criticisms that have been directed toward it. The rate restructuring was shaped, and for a while stalled, by old disputes among member agencies over rights to water supplied by Metropolitan. That controversy has diverted attention from the resource management implications of the rate structure. This paper presents an alternative future focused approach to regional integrated water resource planning for Southern California based on projections of current trends and anticipation of future events. This discussion raises the question of how regional integrated water resources planning of this sort may proceed, and what role Metropolitan will play in that process. [source] Serum levels of interleukin-10 are inversely related to future events in patients with acute myocardial infarctionJOURNAL OF THROMBOSIS AND HAEMOSTASIS, Issue 2 2004I. Seljeflot No abstract is available for this article. [source] Coping with domestic violence: Control attributions, dysphoria, and hopelessnessJOURNAL OF TRAUMATIC STRESS, Issue 2 2000Caroline M. Clements Abstract We investigated the influence of control judgments and coping style on emotional reactions to domestic violence utilizing the framework of hopelessness theory. We assessed abuse severity, control attributions, coping, dysphoric symptoms, and hopelessness in 70 battered women recruited from 12 domestic violence agencies. Respondents reported dysphoria but not hopelessness. Increased reports of dysphoria were associated with higher levels of self-blame and avoidance coping and lower levels of problem-focused coping. Increased problem-focused coping was associated with decreased hopelessness. Perceived control over current abuse was not related to dysphoria. High expectations for control over future events were associated with decreased dysphoria. We discuss our results in terms of their application to attributional accounts of emotional reactions to battering. [source] A study of twentieth-century extreme rainfall events in the United Kingdom with implications for forecastingMETEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, Issue 1 2004William H. Hand Rainfall events in the United Kingdom during the twentieth century have been surveyed and those identified as extreme by the Flood Studies Report (1975) standards have been examined for common features. Events of duration up to 60 hours were considered in order to investigate those that could cause flash floods. More than half of the 50 events identified were short-period convective storms. The rainfall events were classified by meteorological situation, location and season, allowing the identification of conditions under which extreme rainfall occurred. Suitable conditions for extreme rainfall were split into three categories: orographic, frontal and convective. The frontal and convective classes were then divided into two sub-classes according to whether significant embedded instability was present in the frontal cases and the nature of the convection in the convective cases. The study revealed a lot of commonality between the cases. For example, all of the orographic events occurred in winter in moist west to southwest airflows, and 80% of the frontal cases involved a slow-moving depression to the south or east and also a slow moving frontal system. A conceptual airflow diagram has been developed for some of the frontal cases. The key result, however, was the discovery that each category of meteorological situation occupied a unique space in a rainfall amount versus duration diagram for each extreme event. This offers exciting opportunities for applying the results of this study and a framework for studying future events. Copyright © 2004 Royal Meteorological Society. [source] Pushing north one bottleneck at a time: site frequency spectra tell the history of Sitka spruceMOLECULAR ECOLOGY, Issue 18 2010ARMANDO GERALDES Reconstructing the history of populations is a longstanding goal of molecular ecologists. In addition to a better understanding of the past, it is hoped that this knowledge would also facilitate predictions regarding species' responses to future events such as climate change. The traditional way of doing this is through the fossil record, but these historical records are often incomplete. Inferring historical demography from patterns of nucleotide variability can help to fill these gaps. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Holliday et al. (2010) glimpse into the demographic past of Sitka spruce, Picea sitchensis, an economically and ecologically important species native to northwestern United States and Canada, by examining the site frequency spectrum (SFS) of 153 loci in six populations covering the species entire range. [source] Risk Management in Total System Ship DesignNAVAL ENGINEERS JOURNAL, Issue 4 2000C. F. Barker P.E. ABSTRACT Ships are being designed with an increased emphasis on reduced life cycle costs, obtained through means such as reduced crew size, increased automation, and adoption of commercial practices. Ship cost is closely related to the likelihood and consequence of future events, or risk. Ship designers must have tools to assess and manage risks to obtain cost-effective designs. Risk assumptions were built into prescriptive standards, but performance standards are now being used. Ships systems built to varying degrees of acceptable risk are not cost-effective. Underdesigns and overdesigns will result, and the ship ends up only as strong as its "weakest link." The authors propose that the top-down risk management methodology that is currently used for commercial ships be considered for use by naval ship designers in conjunction with both the traditional ship design spiral and the total systems ship design concept. The IMO-endorsed formal safety assessment (FSA) methodology was designed for marine systems. By adopting the FSA approach the Navy will benefit from existing lessons-learned, and will have a smoother transition into the application of commercial standards when the ship is built. [source] The ,-reliable mean-excess regret model for stochastic facility location modelingNAVAL RESEARCH LOGISTICS: AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL, Issue 7 2006Gang Chen Abstract In this paper, we study a strategic facility location problem under uncertainty. The uncertainty associated with future events is modeled by defining alternative future scenarios with probabilities. We present a new model called the ,-reliable mean-excess model that minimizes the expected regret with respect to an endogenously selected subset of worst-case scenarios whose collective probability of occurrence is no more than 1 , ,. Our mean-excess risk measure is coherent and computationally efficient. Computational experiments also show that the ,-reliable mean-excess criterion matches the ,-reliable minimax criterion closely. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2006 [source] Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction marketsQUANTITATIVE ECONOMICS, Issue 1 2010Joyce E. Berg C11; C93; D8; G1 Prediction markets for future events are increasingly common and they often trade several contracts for the same event. This paper considers the distribution of a normative risk-neutral trader who, given any portfolio of contracts traded on the event, would choose not to reallocate that portfolio of contracts even if transactions costs were zero. Because common parametric distributions can conflict with observed prediction market prices, the distribution is given a nonparametric representation together with a prior distribution favoring smooth and concentrated distributions. Posterior modal distributions are found for popular vote shares of the U.S. presidential candidates in the 100 days leading up to the elections of 1992, 1996, 2000, and 2004, using bid and ask prices on multiple contracts from the Iowa Electronic Markets. On some days, the distributions are multimodal or substantially asymmetric. The derived distributions are more concentrated than the historical distribution of popular vote shares in presidential elections, but do not tend to become more concentrated as time to elections diminishes. [source] ENDOGENOUS BUSINESS CYCLES: THE INFLUENCE OF CHARACTER TRAITS,AUSTRALIAN ECONOMIC PAPERS, Issue 1 2009FUJIO TAKATA This article deals with how business cycles can occur, in light of character traits which influence individual behaviour in an economy. We assume an overlapping generations model in which every consumer has identical instantaneous utility which is additively separable with respect to time. The parameters of utility here include character traits which influence the choice between consumption and savings. In this situation, young individuals choose between current consumption and current savings which lead to future consumption in their old age. Individual character traits, which appear both in the shape of utility functions and in evaluations about utility in the future, affect these choices. And since these choices determine savings, individual character traits can eventually determine how our economy moves. Focusing on the relationship between individual character traits and savings formation, we demonstrate that endogenous business cycles with two periods can occur, in an economy comprised of individuals who opt for current consumption and who are careless in relation to future events, like Aesopian grasshoppers, and in other cases they do not. [source] Beyond breaking bad newsCANCER, Issue 2 2008The roles of hope, hopefulness Abstract BACKGROUND. Hope is important to patients, yet physicians are sometimes unsure how to promote hope in the face of life-threatening illness. ANALYSIS. Hope in medicine is of two kinds: specific (hope for specific outcomes) and generalized (a nonspecific sense of hopefulness). At the time of diagnosis of a life-ending condition, the specific goal of a long life is dashed, and there may be no medically plausible specific outcome that the patient feels is worth wishing for. Yet the physician may nonetheless maintain an open-ended hopefulness that is compatible with the physician's obligation to be truthful; this hopefulness can help sustain patient and family through the turbulent period of adaptation to the unwelcome reality of major illness. As this adaptation evolves, the physician can help patients and families adapt to suffering and loss of control by selecting and achieving specific goals such as improvement of the patient's environment in hospital or hospice, pain control, and relief of sleeplessness. Thus hope for specific (but far more modest) future events can again become a positive part of the patient s emotional landscape. The authors do not propose that physicians remain upbeat no matter the circumstance, for they must respect the constraints of reality and the patients' mortality. However, physicians can provide both cognitive and affective support as patients learn how to adapt. Hope and hopefulness are both important in this process. SUMMARY. Hope is always important to patients. Physicians can and should promote hopefulness without endorsing unrealistic hope. Cancer 2008. © 2008 American Cancer Society. [source] Accessibility of causal explanations for future positive and negative events in adolescents with anxiety and depressionCLINICAL PSYCHOLOGY AND PSYCHOTHERAPY (AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF THEORY & PRACTICE), Issue 3 2004Lisa J. Kagan Anxious and depressed adults' pessimism about future events has been shown to be underpinned by their ability to think of reasons why future events would or would not happen (see, e.g., Byrne and MacLeod, 1997). This study sought to extend this finding to adolescents by investigating the accessibility of explanations given for future events in adolescents with elevated anxiety and depression scores. A school sample of 11,17 year olds (N = 123) participated. Participants completed self-report measures of anxiety, depression and positive and negative affect. In addition they were given a set of potential future positive and negative events and asked to provide reasons as to why the events would (pro reasons) or would not (con reasons) happen. Anxious participants, relative to controls, generated significantly more pro relative to con reasons for negative events happening and showed a non-significant trend towards the opposite pattern for positive events. Depressed participants showed clear differences from controls in their pattern of accessible explanations for both negative events and positive events. Correlational analysis showed that positive and negative affect had differential relationships to positive and negative cognitions concerning future outcomes. The results suggest that the processes that underlie pessimism in depressed and anxious adults also operate in relatively depressed and anxious adolescents.,Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [source] | ||||||||||||||||||||||