Future Crises (future + crisis)

Distribution by Scientific Domains

Selected Abstracts

Emerging Economies in East Asia: Are they Safe from Future Crises?

IDS BULLETIN, Issue 4 2007
Yung Chul Park
First page of article [source]

Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis

ECONOMIC POLICY, Issue 62 2010
Stijn Claessens
Summary The financial crisis of 2007--2008 is rooted in a number of factors, some common to previous financial crises, others new. Analysis of post-crisis macroeconomic and financial sector performance for 58 advanced countries and emerging markets shows a differential impact of old and new factors. Factors common to other crises, like asset price bubbles and current account deficits, help to explain cross-country differences in the severity of real economic impacts. New factors, such as increased financial integration and dependence on wholesale funding, help to account for the amplification and global spread of the financial crisis. Our findings point to vulnerabilities to be monitored and areas of needed national and international reforms to reduce risk of future crises and cross-border spillovers. They also reinforce a (sad) state of knowledge: much of how crises start and spread remains unknown. --- Stijn Claessens, Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Deniz Igan and Luc Laeven [source]

Monitoring and Forecasting Currency Crises

currency crises; forecasting; leading indicators; Diffusion Index; exchange rates Can we improve forecasts of currency crises by using a large number of predictors? Which predictors should we use? This paper evaluates the performance of traditional leading indicators and a new Diffusion Index (DI) method as Early Warning Systems to monitor the risk and forecast the likelihood of the recent currency crises in East Asia. We find that the DI performs quite well in real time. For most countries, the forecasted probabilities of a crisis increase substantially around the actual time of the crisis. The economic variables that help in forecasting future crises are output growth, interest rates and money growth. [source]

Monarch, monarchy, succession and stability in Thailand

James Ockey
Abstract:,Many in Thailand have begun to worry about the future, when a new monarch will reign. There is fear that without the wise use of informal royal influence, Thailand may not be able to resolve future crises without major conflict. There have thus been attempts to re-engineer the political system to increase stability, at the expense of democracy and participation. Yet, of the many achievements of King Bhumibol, perhaps the most overlooked has been his strengthening of the institutions of the monarchy. In this article, I will argue that the institutions of the monarchy have been greatly strengthened in the last four decades. Although the current monarch came to the throne with little institutional support, any future monarch will come to the throne with the assistance of large numbers of personnel, a stable budget and a council of powerful and experienced advisors. The informal role of the monarch in supporting democracy has also been shared, to some degree, with a larger and more influential privy council, and especially with its president. Consequently, future monarchical succession should see considerable continuity and stability. Such preparations make the sacrifice of democracy in pursuit of stability unnecessary and unfortunate. [source]

Window of Opportunity Opens: Asian and American Views of the International Economic Architecture

F02; F13; F33; F55; F59 This paper compares US and Asian views of the international economic architecture including Asia's evolving regional institutions. Lessons from the global financial crisis are used to assess reforms of the financial institutions better to prevent and manage future crises. While G-20 leaders have increased the resources of the International Monetary Fund, much work remains to restore its legitimacy and independence and to define clearly the Financial Stability Board's mandate to strengthen financial oversight and regulation. The paper critiques proposals for a global super-regulator and concludes that while the global architecture is important, the tests of its success will be fewer government actions to self-insure and the willingness to heed warnings of future problems and take timely corrective actions. [source]

Asian Currency Crisis and the International Monetary Fund, 10 Years Later: Overview*

Takatoshi ITO
This paper is an overview of the Asian currency crisis in Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997,1998, with an emphasis on the role of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It provides a detailed account of the development of the crisis and analyses and evaluates the content of IMF advice and its consequences. The size of the IMF package for each of these three countries is judged to have been too small. This paper also has a comparative perspective; the Mexican crisis is reviewed as a precursor to the Asian crisis to see what the IMF learned, and how it prepared, for future crises. The causes of the crises and IMF conditionality for the post-Asian crisis countries, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and Argentina, are also compared to the Asian crisis countries. By agreeing to maintain a fixed exchange rate, for example, the IMF is judged to have been "softer" in its approach to the post-Asian crisis countries. [source]

Regional Integration in East Asia: Achievements and Future Prospects

Economic integration in East Asia has been largely market driven. Attempts in the late 1980s to establish an East Asian regional economic grouping failed to materialize for a number of reasons. The financial crisis in 1997,1998 has strengthened the realization of regional countries that they need to have some self-help mechanisms to overcome that crisis and to prevent future crises. This led to the development of several functional integration programs, including the network of bilateral swap arrangements known as the Chiang Mai Initiative. However, progress remains slow. The question that has arisen is how far these efforts need to be supported by institutional integration. Should the ASEAN Plus Three, the main regional cooperation process in East Asia involving the 10 South-East Asian countries plus China, Japan, and South Korea, be deepened institutionally? Meanwhile, the region has seen the establishment of a new process, the East Asia Summit, involving the above 13 countries plus Australia, India, and New Zealand. How will these different arrangements contribute to East Asia's economic dynamism and prosperity as well as peace and political stability? [source]